DFS Alerts

Hisashi Iwakuma has low strikeout upside (17.3%) in a power friendly park (28 HRs allowed)

Hisashi Iwakuma is a low upside (17.3 K%), occasionally HR prone pitcher (28 allowed this season), facing a dangerous offense (14.7 HR/FB at home) in a power friendly park. There are some strikeouts here (Astros 24.6 K% at home, 23.5 K% vs RHP), but he’s failed to accumulate more than five in any of his last eight starts. Evan Gattis leads the offense with a .259 ISO vs RHP this season and he costs less than $4K on either site, but Iwakuma is not a bad pitcher and no other batter has an ISO above .202 vs RHP, while only Jose Altuve (154) and Correa (128) have a wRC+ above 115 against them. Projected for just under four runs, there may not be a lot of value in a lineup without a lot of cheap bats.

Rangers own the highest implied run total of the evening (5.8)

Matt Garza has been surprisingly solid lately, especially against right-handed batters, with an 18.1% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 57.9% ground ball rate. There is certainly plenty of reason to use some of the top Rangers right-handed batters like Jonathan Lucroy, Ian Desmond, Carlos Gomez or Adrian Beltre, as it’s not a stretch to think Garza could regress quickly and drastically, and the Brewers bullpen is mediocre at best. But from a pure skill set and matchup perspective, we should be looking at the left-handed bats here, as Garza’s strikeouts drop to 12.4% and his ground balls drop to 51.9% with a bump in his hard hit rate. Carlos Beltran (111 wRC+, .340 wOBA, .203 ISO vs RHP) and Rougned Odor (110 wRC+, .342 wOBA, .243 ISO vs RHP) would be the top plays for cash games, while Nomar Mazara (113 wRC+, .346 wOBA, .192 ISO vs RHP) and Mitch Moreland (.195 ISO vs RHP) are more than viable in tournaments or as part of a Rangers stack.

Collin McHugh has initiated weaker contact (3.9 Hard-Soft%) over last month, Mariners projected for less than four runs

Collin McHugh has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts, though one rough start in Texas in between. His walk rate has increased a bit over that span, though his strikeout rate remains a bit above 22%, as it is for the season. He’s also inducing more weak contact (3.9 Hard-Soft% last 30 days), while it’s nice to see his BABIP due an above face as a .263 mark over this span finally has him below .350 on the season. The high BABIP was never supported by anything much out of the ordinary in his batted ball or contact rates. The Mariners have some power (14.6 HR/FB vs RHP) in a power friendly park, but it’s more of a neutral run environment against an offense that strikes out around average. McHugh is a reasonable choice on a difficult board for $8K tonight. He has a bit of a reverse split too as RHBs have a .337 wOBA against him since last season with LHBs at .313. That makes Nelson Cruz (138 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP since 2015) the most interesting bat in this lineup at an affordable cost right around $4K on either site. The Mariners are projected for just 3.6 runs.

J.A. Happ's strikeout rate down over last month (18.4%), Yankees have an 18.7 K% vs LHP

J.A. Happ has seen his strikeout rate drop over the last month (18.4%), though he did fan eight Mariners in his last start. He continues to strand runners at a high rate (80%), causing his 3.28 ERA to run nearly a run below his league average estimators right around four. He’s in a nice spot at home against a low power offense (10.0 HR/FB on the road and vs LHP), but the Yankees don’t strike out a lot (18.7% vs LHP). While he should be fine, the cost seems a bit excessive, especially on DraftKings ($10.1K) for a pitcher with marginal peripherals. For the Yankees, Gary Sanchez (122 wRC+, .362 ISO vs LHP career) remains a monster and the top catcher at a high price. As far as potential punt plays go, there may be a couple here. Billy Butler (106 wRC+ vs LHP this season) has a 164 wRC+ over the last week for $2.7K or less out of the cleanup spot, while Mark Teixeira (104 wRC+, .155 ISO vs LHP) looks to finish his career strong (152 wRC+ last seven days) at $2.8K or less.

Reds implied run total has plummeted to 3.5 runs

Jaime Garcia has been basically the same pitcher as always with average strikeouts (20.4%), good control and an elite ground ball rate (57.0%). The difference this season, and the reason why his ERA sits at 4.59 despite a 3.90 SIERA is an abnormally high 19.0% HR/FB rate. Most of those home runs came in a terrible five game stretch in August into early September when he allowed nine home runs, causing him to get relegated to the bullpen for the past couple weeks. The Cardinals are right in the thick of the wild card race, so every game matters. What this means is that if Garcia gets off to a rough start, they’ll more than likely get him out of there quickly. But on the contrary, if the home run issues don’t flare up, and they certainly may not against a weak Reds lineup, then he’ll be left out there as long as he’s getting the job done. Since Garcia is such a huge favorite at home against a team that has been bad against left-handed pitching, he is cash game viable at this price point, on both major sites.

Carlos Santana has a 141 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP facing Buck Farmer (LHBs .438 wOBA)

Buck Farmer has been able to miss some bats in long relief out of the bullpen (23.2 K%, 11.4 SwStr%) and should be able to get through around 80 pitches in his first start of the season, throwing 75 pitches last time out. It’s questionable whether that will get him through more than five innings though with a 14.8 BB%, though he did show much improved control (6.6%) at AAA this season though. A minimum price tag for an arm that may be able to generate some whiffs might even be enough on DraftKings against an offense that has drastically under-performed on the road (84 wRC+). They have been strong against RHP though (104 wRC+) and LHBs do have a .438 wOBA, 33.6 Hard% against Farmer in his young career (164 PAs). Carlos Santana (141 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top bat in this lineup vs RHP. While other Cleveland bats project fairly well here in a lineup projected for 4.6 runs, similarly high price tags, while only Tyler Naquin (138 wRC+, .236 ISO) also has a wRC+ above 125 or ISO above .200 against RHP this season from the left side, might not make them very cost efficient.

Diamondbacks are currently tied for the second-lowest implied run total (3.4) on the slate

The right-heavy Diamondbacks lineup draws a tough matchup on the road against Tanner Roark this evening. He has one of the best hard contact rates in baseball, and he generates almost as much soft contact (23.5%) as he does hard contact (24.5%). That helps Roark maintain a very reasonable BABIP of .272, which is actually sustainable for a pitcher that generates that much soft contact. This alone should disinterest us from using any Arizona hitters. The question becomes whether or not we are interested in Roark as a pitching option. His strikeout rate is below league average at 19.9%, and his walk rate is a bit elevated this season at 8.4%. His SIERA and xFIP are merely average at 4.29 and 4.14, respectively. Throw in a high price tag of $10.4K on DraftKings, and it becomes relatively simple to pass on both Roark and the Arizona offense in this matchup. However, Roark is slightly more interesting on FanDuel where he can be had for a much more reasonable $8.5K.

Luis Severino returns from the bullpen with a 26.3 K% over the last month to face the Blue Jays

Luis Severino has worked exclusively out of the pen in September, but more than one inning in every outing since his first this month. Being “stretched out” was a major factor in Girardi choosing him for this spot start originally intended for Tanaka. While his strikeout rate has increased to 26.3% over the last month, he still has a 14.3 K-BB% on the season with a 62.5 LOB% at fault for some of his issues. The Blue Jays are the hottest offense on the board (135 wRC+ last seven days), but do strike out 22.6% of the time vs RHP. While not expected to go much more than five innings, he has the talent to cover a cost well below $6K with a reduced workload. The Blue Jays are a top three projected offense tonight though at just below five runs, so their key bats are certainly in play, especially with RHBs (.336 wOBA, 30.3 Hard%) having a bit more success against Severino. The big three (Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion) are all top bats at their positions tonight. Each has a 140+ wRC+ and .260+ ISO vs RHP since last season. Two bottom of the order bats (Smoak, Saunders) may even have some GPP appeal on FanDuel for around $2.5K each. Both have a 103 wRC+ with an ISO right around .200 vs RHP since last season.

Adam Conley has given up all 13 of his home runs allowed to RHB

We shouldn’t expect much out of Adam Conley in his first start since mid-August, and it’s going to be tough for anyone on the Miami pitching staff to do much today. Conley has some extreme and unusual splits. He is a low strikeout pitcher against left-handed batters (13.0%), relying on ground balls (49.0%) and soft contact (23.3% Hard%). Against right-handed batters, his strikeouts jump up to 24.0%, but he allows fly balls (44.5%) and hard hits (35.0%). This puts the Mets right-handed power as the top targets, beginning with Yoenis Cespedes (192 wRC+, .455 wOBA, .293 ISO vs LHP). The red-hot Asdrubal Cabrera (.349 wOBA, 40% hard hits vs LHP) and Jose Reyes (219 wRC+, .494 wOBA, .375 ISO vs LHP) are in play in all formats batting at the top of the order.

Marlins return to the field to face Bartolo Colon after yesterday's tragic loss

It’s difficult to consider the Marlins in a daily fantasy sense after the tragic passing of Jose Fernandez yesterday, yet those are the circumstances we are confronted with if you are playing this slate tonight. Bartolo Colon has reduced his hard contact to 27.1% over his last seven starts, but his ERA is still down two runs below estimators that remain above four over that period due to a .252 BABIP and 85.4 LOB%. HIs upside is very limited with a 16.1 K% both for the season and the last month, making a price tag just below $8K difficult to justify. The state of mind of the Marlins tonight can not be measured. Nobody at all could blame them if they weren’t themselves tonight or maybe a return to the field helps with the healing. This is a cold team with a 65 wRC+ over the last week with only Giancarlo Stanton (122 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP since 2015) above a 90 wRC+ over that span (148). LHBs hit Colon a bit better than RHBs, but there’s not much of a platoon split there anymore and he’s been around average against battles from both sides since last year. Justin Bour (122 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $2.7K on DraftKings, but might be the coldest bat on the team with a -47 wRC+ and 26.7 Hard% over the last week.

Kluber is an expensive, high-upside, possibly contrarian option in tournaments tonight

Corey Kluber stands alone at the top of the list tonight, both in price and skill set. He is the only pitcher on the slate with a strikeout rate above 23%, and his 26.6% strikeout rate for the season is up to 31.4% over the past month with an elite 14.1% swinging strike rate. Kluber has at least seven strikeouts in 13 of his last 14 starts and there is just nobody who can touch his upside tonight, even against a strong Detroit lineup. Because of his hefty price tag, Kluber isn’t a must play in a road game against a good offense. However, if able to fit Kluber in tournament lineups, he is certainly viable with his 3.48 SIERA and 27.9% hard hit rate. Cleveland has all but clinched the division, but given that there’s a full week before the playoffs, and this is the game that can clinch the division title, we should expect Kluber to get his normal workload.

No Murphy or Harper for Nationals at home against Archie Bradley

Despite an insubstantial shift in results, Archie Bradley’s 14.9 K-BB% is up over four points from his season rate, while his hard hit rate is down to a league average 30.8% (36.4% on the season) over the last month. He has the worst defense on the board tonight behind him leading to a .368 BABIP over the discussed span. A full strength Washington lineup is probably near average vs RHP (95 wRC+), but take out Harper and Murphy and Archie Bradley almost becomes interesting for around $6.5K on either site. Batters from either side have hit the ball hard over 35% of the time against him though, while LHBs have a .365 wOBA, Part of that can probably be attributed to a difficult home park, but probably not all of it. Trea Turner (141 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP career) is the top bat here, but costs an aggressive $5.6K on DraftKings without the normal fire power behind him. Stephen Drew (138 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP this season) has had a nice bounce back season off the bench for this club and costs less than $3K in the fifth spot today.

Fowler, Zobrist OUT against Chad Kuhl in Pittsburgh

Dexter Fowler and Ben Zobrist will rest tonight in Pittsburgh as the Cubs gear up for the post-season and have nothing left to play for this week. The Cubs have touched up Chad Kuhl for seven runs in 7.1 innings in two previous starts, the more recent one without Fowler and Zobrist also. Kuhl pitches in a park that decimates RH power, but he’s really struggled with LHBs (.347 wOBA, 36.5 Hard%). The Cubs (105 wRC+ on the road, 102 wRC+ vs RHP, 134 wRC+ last seven days) are a deep offense that can still put up some runs even without those two key bats. Anthony Rizzo (150 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is obviously the top bat here. Chris Coghlan (104 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has some value in the leadoff spot for $2.9K on either site. Willson Contreras (118 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP) has a 379 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week and gets a nice bump in the lineup to the cleanup spot tonight.

Tyson Blach will pitch for the Giants today and face a watered-down Padres lineup

Ty Blach pitched in AAA this season, establishing that he can hold his own versus both LHBs and RHBs. For the season, Blach has allowed an impressive 0.500 OPS to LHBs and only a 0.669 OPS to RHBs. Blach will face a Padres lineup that has multiple hitters who are striking out more than 20% of the time over the last week, including Ryan Schimpf, Travis Jankowski, and Manuel Margot. If Blach can pitch relatively deep into the game, he could be a sneaky-good value play at the pitcher position.

If Matt Cain is in your lineup take him out