DFS Alerts
Ryan Braun OUT of Milwaukee lineup against lefty Steven Brault
Projected to be one of the top bats against a marginal lefty, Ryan Braun’s absence may create more value for other Milwuakee bats tonight. Steven Brault has allowed 16 runs, four unearned, which is why his 3.90 ERA is a run below his estimators through just six starts with a 7.7 K-BB%, although it helps that he pitches in Pittsburgh too (10.0 HR/FB). Tonight, he is in Milwaukee, a major park downgrade. He’s faced the Brewers twice with two of his three HRs allowed against them (Santana and Carter). RHBs, with which the Brewers stack the lineup entirely, have a .364 wOBA against him so far. Players can look to Domingo Santana (160 wRC+, .270 ISO vs LHP since 2015) as a cheap source of power ($3.2K on FD) out of the cleanup spot tonight. He has a 192 wRC+ and 56.3 Hard% over the last week. Chris Carter (.347 ISO), Jonathan Villar and Orlando Arcia (170 wRC+) all add at least a 140 wRC+ and .197 ISO against LHP this season. Only Carter costs more than $3.2K on FanDuel. Arcia is $3.6K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Chris Carter, Jonathan Villar, Steven Brault, Orlando Arcia
Twins power RHB bats in position to feast on the 47.7% FB% and 31.7% Hard% of Matt Boyd
Most of the top situations to target are stacks tonight, but this a mathcup where we can look for some home runs and one off upside. Matt Boyd is a left-handed fly ball pitcher that allows a 47.7% fly ball rate to right-handed batters. Though, he does keep the ball in the strike zone fairly well with close to average strikeouts (19.7%). The Twins hitters in play are fairly obvious with Brian Dozier (172 wRC+, .429 wOBA) being the top play with his astronomically high .373 ISO against left-handed pitching. Kennys Vargas (208 wRC+, .477 wOBA, .253 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Robbie Grossman (187 wRC+, .452, .253 ISO vs LHP) would be the other upside bats to consider.
Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Matthew Boyd
Rangers are projected for six runs against a pitcher with a 43.8 Hard% and 4.6 K-BB% through 23 innings
The Rangers are projected for six runs tonight, the second highest total on the board, facing Daniel Wright, who was rejected from the Reds’ rotation and has a 4.6 K-BB% and 43.8 Hard% through his first 23 major league innings with just a 10.3 K-BB% at AAA this season. The issue with the Texas lineup is what it normally is. They have just a 99 wRC+ vs RHP, but play in a great park and project well overall, but no single batter stands out, while few of them are inexpensive. Almost all of them are a bit above average with some power vs RHP. This is often a lineup you have to stack or pass on. If we’re attempting to pull the single best values tonight, perhaps that’s Adrian Beltre, who has really turned it around against RHP this season, (116 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP) for just $3K on FanDuel. Mitch Moreland (93 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP this season) for just $3.2K on DraftKings, at least $900 less than the second least expensive bat in the first eight. Stacking this lineup is also fine if players can afford to do so. None are really poor choices.
Other tagged players: Mitch Moreland, Daniel Wright A.J. Griffin has allowed 16 HRs over his last eight starts and at least one in 15 straight
A.J. Griffin allowed two more HRs in his last start. That’s now 16 over his last eight starts and at least one in 15 straight. A 0.61 GB/FB and 38.2 Hard% isn’t working out well in Texas. The Angels have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball (16.2% vs RHP). That’s a lot of opportunities for HRs tonight. The issue is that LHBs have a .410 wOBA with 18 HRs against Griffin, while RHBs have just a .279 wOBA with eight HRs. Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is on the clock tonight. That’s about the most obvious pick tonight, but he does cost a small fortune (in DFS terms anyway). Where does the power come from after that though? Three LHBs, all bottom half of the order, with only Nick Buss (104 wRC+, .200 ISO) showing more power than a .129 ISO ISO vs RHP. Griffin is likely to allow a HR and maybe even two, but will Trout hit both? He has homered twice in 23 PAs against Griffin. Pujols has one in 14 PAs.
Other tagged players: Nick Buss, A.J. Griffin, Albert Pujols James Shields is surrendering an absurd 2.45 HR/9 to RHB this season
James Shields has been a bit all over the place with his performance this season, but he has spent much more time on the absolutely terrible side of the map. For the season Shields has a 16.0% strikeout rate and a 10.0% walk rate with a 5.18 ERA and a 5.84 SIERA. He has eight starts where he’s allowed six or more runs and 15 starts with three or fewer strikeouts. When Shields has been off, he has been worse than any pitcher in the majors. He has bad control to left-handed batters (11.9% BB%) leading to a ton of base runners, with fly balls (41.9%) and hard hits allowed to right-handed batters (40.0%). Tommy Joseph (.251 ISO vs RHP), Maikel Franco (.155 ISO vs RHP) and Cameron Rupp (.173 ISO vs RHP) are the Phillies hitters with the most upside and can be sprinkled throughout tournament lineups or as a core to a Philadelphia stack. Don’t ignore Odubel Herrera (122 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .164 ISO vs RHP), who won’t be highly owned due to his salary but will be right in the middle of the action if the bad Shields shows up tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Other tagged players: Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp, James Shields LHBs have a .368 wOBA against Matt Garza since 2015, two potential top values atop Pittsburgh lineup
Matt Garza has followed up striking out 17 of 53 batters, by striking out just eight of his last 46, allowing a HR in each of his last four starts and getting blown up by the Reds, though only one of his five runs were earned. Pittsburgh is the hottest offense in the majors (141 wRC+, 2.7 K-BB%, 17.6 HR/FB last seven days). LHBs have thumped Garza since last season (.368 wOBA), while RHBs haven’t done badly either (.329 wOBA) and both have a hard hit rate a bit above 33%. In a much more favorable park than their home, there is some great value atop the Pittsburgh lineup tonight. Josh Bell (145 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP) costs $3.2K or less on either site, while Adam Frazier (125 wRC+, .161 ISO vs RHP) costs just $2.2K on FanDuel. While other Pirate bats are more much more expensive, only Jung-Ho Kang has been significantly above average vs RHP this year (143 wRC+, .279 ISO).
Other tagged players: Adam Frazier, Jung-Ho Kang, Matt Garza Josh Tomlin has allowed 35 HRs, but has the lowest walk rate in baseball and faces a low power offense at home
Josh Tomlin has allowed the third most HRs in the majors this season (35) with a 35 Hard%. That’s not to be minimized, but he is otherwise a league average pitcher (4.18 SIERA, 4.14 xFIP) with the lowest walk rate (3.1%) in baseball. He has just four double digit SwStr% efforts this season, but all in his last four starts and he faces an offense with very little power tonight (9.5 HR/FB vs RHP). He’s allowed just two runs in 13.1 previous innings against Kansas City with nine strikeouts. Kendrys Morales leads the lineup with a .208 ISO vs RHP this season and five batters have an ISO below .130 against righties. Just two batters have a wRC+ above 84 vs RHP this season. Players on two pitcher sites (DraftKings $5.2K) could consider sneaking Tomlin into their second spot tonight in order to be more flexible elsewhere. It may not be a high upside spot, but has a reasonable chance of paying off.
Other tagged players: Kendrys Morales LHBs have a .393 wOBA against Jake Thompson, RHBs a 37.5 Hard%
Jake Thompson has allowed two runs or less in each of his last four starts, but still has just a 7.8 K-BB% over that span. LHBs have a .393 wOBA against him, but RHBs have a 37.5 Hard% through eight starts. White Sox batters don’t generally have a lot of DFS appeal, but there are three fairly affordable ones players can look at on FanDuel in the $3K to $3.5K range. Adam Eaton (125 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Melky Cabrera (104 wRC+, .135 ISO vs RHP since 2015) have a nice matchup in a small park from the left-side, while Jose Abreu (134 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is finishing the season strong and hits RHP better than LHP.
Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, Jake Thompson Reds are currently tied for the second-lowest implied run total on the slate (3.1)
Jon Lester has been as good as any pitcher in the league heading down the final stretch of the season. He has a string of nine straight quality starts with 61 strikeouts and 12 walks and has picked up a win in seven of those nine games. There’s little reason not to expect another quality start and another win tonight against Cincinnati, and what he lacks in elite strikeout upside, he makes up for with his consistency. It is also worth mentioning that it is quite strange to say a pitcher with a 24.9% strikeout rate lacks upside. His ability to pitch deep into games adds to his strikeout upside, as even a strikeout per innings becomes very useful once you reach the latter stages of the game. Lester is our guy in cash games on either site, though it is difficult to confidently state that he has similar upside to Jose Fernandez in tournaments. Lester gains some extra value in FanDuel tournaments given his added win probability.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Daniel Murphy remains OUT of Nats lineup against Jose Fernandez
The Nationals are just trying to stay healthy as they coast to the post-season. A number of bats are resting tonight, the most prominent of which is Daniel Murphy. Jose Fernandez has a 37.3 K% at home this season (29.9 K-BB%). and was already the top overall arm on the board, but Murphy’s absence gives him a further boost because LHBs have given him some trouble this season (36.3 Hard%). You might struggle to call the Nationals (95 wRC+ vs RHP) an average offense against righties even with Murphy, but despite a couple of recent starts where he’s struggled on the road, the upside in Fernandez’s arm is likely worth paying up for tonight in a favorable matchup at home.
Smyly owns a 19.6% K-BB% at Tropicana Field this season
Drew Smyly has peripheral stats that are somewhat impressive, but it’s a situation where he owns an ERA (4.98) that significantly surpasses his SIERA (4.12). The plus side for Smyly is that he is a much better pitcher at home, and with his fly ball style (49.7% FB%), that makes sense. The Yankees also don’t have the type of power that should give him too much trouble, ranking 26th in ISO against left-handed pitching. Smyly’s strikeout rate of 26.2% in Tampa gives him a bit of strikeout upside against a Yankees team whose strikeouts have increased as the season has progressed. Smyly is not a safe option, although his salary is low enough on both sites that we should be willing to consider him in cash games if paying up for bats.
As reported by: FanGraphs Cubs have the second highest run total outside Coors (5.5), likely to see Reds bullpen early
The Cubs have the second highest run projection outside Coors (5.5), facing Josh Smith, whose 50 innings for the Reds have all come out of the bullpen this season. An expensive Cubs lineup will likely match up with an underwhelming bullpen fairly early in this game, so splits matter a bit less here. Bryant (142 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP career) and Rizzo (152 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are top overall bats who are nearly matchup proof. Players looking for cheaper exposure should consider Addison Russell (100 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for just $2.5K on FanDuel or the suddenly hot Jason Heyward (102 wRC+, .135 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has a 198 wRC+ over the last week and costs about $3K on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Jason Heyward Michael Pineda's 14.2 SwStr% is third best in baseball, facing an offense that K's a quarter of the time
Michael Pineda has an ERA below four with a reasonable .313 BABIP and 15.3 HR/FB, while maintaining an elite K-BB in 19 starts since the beginning of June, putting his season mark at exactly 20%. His 14.2 SwStr% is a fraction of a point higher than Fernandez. Tonight, he gets a park upgrade against an offense with a 25.0 K% at home and 24.1 K% vs RHP. It might be the perfect spot for his skillset, especially when you look at what injuries have done to the bottom half of this lineup. Pineda always comes with some hard contact risk, but his $8.5K price tag will allow players to pull in some top bats tonight with an upside in line with higher priced arms. Projected for just 3.7 runs, Rays bats are not very attractive tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Cleveland has the second best home wRC+ (121) in baseball with a five run projection, but an expensive lineup tonight
Edinson Volquez has an ERA above five with estimators around four and a half this season with just a 16.3 K%. Cleveland has the second best home offense in baseball (121 wRC+). While the Tribe is projected to score five runs tonight, there are several high priced bats in the lineup, which may make it difficult to negotiate value out of them, while also being able to afford some of tonight’s stronger arms. Volquez has little platoon split with LHBs and RHBs right around a .340 wOBA against him this season and a league average hard hit rate a bit above 30%. The better site to have some exposure to this lineup is probably FanDuel, where both Carlos Santana (132 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP his season) and Jason Kipnis (118 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP this season) cost $3.6K. GPP players can also take a flyer on Tyler Naquin (141 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP) batting eighth for just $2.9K. Interestingly, only Chisenhall and Perez have not homered against Volquez in their career, though only Santana has two.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Edinson Volquez, Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Tyler Naquin, Roberto Perez Pedroia OUT as Gausman tries to repeat hit eight shutout innings against the Red Sox
Kevin Gausman dominated the Red Sox (107 wRC+ on the road, 116 wRC+ vs RHP) through eight shutout innings (six Ks) in his last start, but was bombed in his two previous starts against them, including three HRs at home. While he’s a good pitcher, who may be playable for $7.7K on DraftKings he’s in a high risk spot and may not be necessary with a lot of pitching upside on tonight’s board. The Red Sox are projected for just over four runs with several high priced bats and Dustin Pedroia out of the lineup. This might be a matchup players should consider fading. Gausman generally has issues with RHBs (.353 wOBA since 2015), though keeps hard contact below 30% against all batters, pitching well against LHBs (.273 wOBA since 2015), but David Ortiz (171 wRC+, .343 ISO vs RHP since 2015) does have some impressive numbers against him (two HRs, five extra-base hits in 23 PAs with a 95 mph aEV on his last nine batted balls).
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: David Ortiz