DFS Alerts
Jake Odorizzi only has a 18.0% K% versus RHB
We will generally want to stay away from the left-handed hitters on the Red Sox, as Jake Odorizzi has continued his trend of excellence against left-handed batters this season. However, on the road against right-handed batters, Odorizzi’s numbers tell an entirely different story. His strikeout rate to righties on the road is only 15.9% (17.6% career), his ground balls sit at 34.9% (34.2% career), and while his hard contact is not out of control (33.2%), this is another situation where we have enough consistent data to rely on wOBA a bit more than normal. This season, Odorizzi has allowed an astronomical .374 wOBA on the road to right-handed batters. The previous season was .342, and the year before was .396. Mookie Betts (148 wRC+, .399 wOBA, .238 ISO vs RHP) is obviously one of the best plays in baseball any time you can fit him on your roster against a non-elite pitcher, but any of the remaining Boston righties at the top of the order, like Dustin Pedroia (127 wRC+, .367 wOBA) and Xander Bogaerts (111 wRC+, .345 wOBA),are in play for tournaments as parts of a stack.
Other tagged players: Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Jake Odorizzi
The Marlins have a 0.0 HR/FB and 20.7 Hard% over the last week
Seth Lugo left after five innings in St Louis due to a leg cramp, but did not allow a run and has not embarrassed himself in two starts against quality offenses in St Louis and San Francisco despite a hard hit rate above 40% each time. He hasn’t allowed a major league HR in 28.2 major league innings and while that won’t last, it could continue tonight. The Marlins have shuffled the order with Ozuna (86 wRC+, .141 ISO vs RHP since 2015) batting second tonight and Yelich (136 wRC+, 174 ISO vs RHP since 2015) dropped to cleanup, but that doesn’t make the remaining batters any better when you still have Ichiro Suzuki (64 RC+, .047 ISO vs RHP since 2015) batting sixth in 2016. The Marlins have not hit a HR in over a week (20.7 Hard%). Seth Lugo may not even be a back end starter long term on a decent team, but he only has to cover $4.1K on DraftKings against a terrible lineup tonight. The one look in this lineup might be Xavier Scruggs, the one hot bat in the lineup (183 wRC+ last seven days) for the absolute minimum on FanDuel and batting fifth.
Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Ichiro Suzuki, Xavier Scruggs
Athletics implied run total continues to decline, currently sitting at 3.6 runs
The game log over the last four starts for Collin McHugh looks pretty awful, but his peripherals still do remain strong, and he’s likely to see the .365 BABIP and 14.6% HR/FB rates regress in his favor sooner rather than later. Over the past month he has a 25.2% strikeout rate, 5.0% walk rate and a 3.49 SIERA that ranks as the fourth best of all the pitchers on the mound tonight. The Athletics don’t strike out a ton, but they also lack the ability to really get to a right-handed pitcher, so it’s not difficult to imagine a scenario where McHugh is able to string together a more than usable outing tonight. Since McHugh is surrendering 1.62 HR/9 to right-handed batters, Khris Davis (.271 ISO vs RHP) makes for an intriguing leverage play in tournaments if fading Mchugh. He is a little more interesting for tournaments on DraftKings, where he is only $6K, but McHugh certainly deserves a look if you’re building multiple lineups in tournaments on FanDuel as well.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Khris Davis Maybin OUT as Tigers try to do better against Ranaudo with top run projection for second straight night
The Tigers tanked on the juicy James Shields matchup last night, but get a second shot at a terrible RHP in Anthony Ranaudo tonight. Batters from either side have a .350+ wOBA and 33+ Hard% through 74.1 big league innings over parts of the last three seasons. Detroit is once again the top projected offense on the board (5.74) and while this is a lineup that’s a bit costly up top, they nearly all project well here, but may have a bit more value on FanDuel where they’re a bit cheaper across the board. Cabrera (156 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and J.D. Martinez (140 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are the top bats, though Justin Upton (115 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been coming on with a 197 wRC+ over the last week and still costs just $3.2K on FanDuel. Value seekers may want to look at Saltalamacchia (91 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who homered last night and Tyler Collins (103 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP since 2015), replacing Maybin in the second spot.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Justin Upton, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Tyler Collins, Andrew Albers Struggling Indians projected for 5.67 runs against LHP who hasn't had a major league start since 2013
Cleveland faces their second straight LH offering from the Twins and while they’ve really struggled against LHP recently and are down to a 98 wRC+ with a 9.6 HR/FB against them on the season, they are still the second best home offense in baseball (121 wRC+) and face a pitcher making his first major league start since 2013. Andrew Albers is a low strikeout arm and has a bit of a platoon split, where 221 RHBs have a .334 wOBA with eight HRs against him in his career, mostly in 10 starts from 2013. Cleveland bats are projected for the second most runs tonight (5.67), but are more reasonably priced than normal, likely due to recent struggles. While only Jose Ramirez (118 wRC+ vs LHP this season) has a wRC+ above 92 over the last week, Napoli (147 wRC+, .260 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Guyer (156 wRC+, .199 ISO vs LHP since last season) remain the best options here. Both have been struggling, but Guyer costs just $2.9K on FanDuel. Chris Gimenez has shined in limited work against southpaws since last season (142 wRC+, .309 ISO) and costs the minimum on FD for those looking to punt Catcher. Leadoff man Rajai Davis has just an 80 wRC+ vs LHP this season.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Brandon Guyer, Andrew Albers, Chris Gimenez, Rajai Davis Braves are projected for an unusually high 4.74 runs against Edwin Jackson tonight
The Braves draw one of the worst pitchers on the board tonight, which players will notice in a 4.74 run projection that’s much higher than normal for them. Edwin Jackson doesn’t have much of a platoon split or allow a ton of hard contact (though he’s a bit above 30% to batters from both sides this season). His issues stem from a high walk rate and low strikeout rate. With some reasonable price tags and a nice run projection, Atlanta bats are firmly in play today and even a team stack wouldn’t be out of order on FanDuel, where only Freddie Freeman (149 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP since last season) is above $3.3K. He is the obvious top bat in the lineup. Tyler Flowers (121 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP this season) might be the most interesting bat. Costing $3.3K or less on either site, he has a 224 wRC+ and 45.5 Hard% over the last week and in fact, has hit the ball pretty hard all season, leading the lineup with a 94.6 mph aEV this season. That’s sixth best in baseball among those with at least 60 batted balls this season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Tyler Flowers, Edwin Jackson Upgraded risk in Pittsburgh @ Chicago (NL)
Kevin has bumped the risk at Wrigley to YELLOW/ORANGE in the game between the Pirates and Cubs. It has some risk of a late start, but Kevin still seems to think we’ll get it in. The concern for someone like Arrieta would be an in-game delay rather than a late start though. r
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Fairly low risk weather update except in Colorado again tonight
Tonight’s only real risk comes from a familiar spot in Colorado where there always seems to be some issues. Tonight it’s a bit more concerning at YELLOW/ORANGE, which players who are looking at either of tonight’s two pitchers must consider, but as usual, the PPD risk is small and he an offensive fade is not recommended at this point. Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Bruce, Walker and Cabrera OUT vs Jose Fernandez
Jose Fernandez doesn’t need much help, but he has struggled a bit vs LHBs (.319 wOBA, 34.3 Hard% since last season), so it does help a bit that two of the Mets more competent LHBs recently (Walker and Cabrera) are out with injuries, along with the struggling Jay Bruce. Among the five remaining ones, James Loney leads them with a 103 wRC+ vs RHP this year and only Granderson (.212 ISO) has an ISO above .140. Don’t overthink this. Jose Fernandez leads baseball with a 35.4 K% this season (Mets strike out 22% vs RHP) and is tonight’s top arm by a wide margin.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, James Loney Gray owns a 20.3% K-BB% at Coors Field, making the Dodgers an interesting fade candidate
Jon Gray has suppressed too many good teams too many times at Coors Field for us to get excited to roster this Dodgers offense tonight. Gray allows a few more home runs at home (which would be expected) but does a significantly better job at keeping the ball on the ground (48.0%) and limiting hard contact (26.1% Hard%). The Dodgers could certainly go off for a huge game, but with all the other optimal spots for offense on this slate, we could actually be taking on more risk with the Dodgers bats attacking Gray, while seemingly not gaining any substantial upside. The Dodgers are the only team facing a truly good pitcher out of all the teams with high implied run totals, and we would be rostering them simply to play the Coors Field factor, We would much rather look for that upside in a different spot.
As reported by: FanGraphs Matt Shoemaker has a 22.0 K-BB% at home, but has struck out just nine of last 56 there
Matt Shoemaker has a 22.0 K-BB% at home that’s nearly double his 11.7% mark on the road, but has struck out just nine of his last 56 at home and five or fewer in each of his last seven starts overall. He’s gone at least six innings in each start, allowing HRs in just two of them, so he hasn’t completely reverted to his old ways, but expectations should be lowered a bit. He’s in a nice spot against the visiting Reds though. It’s a significant park downgrade for them and his 13.4 K% over the last month still comes with an optimistic 10.5 SwStr%, though that too is down a bit. It has been above 12% in each of his last two home starts and $7.2K on DraftKings gives you a potentially high upside arm with plenty of room for offense or a higher priced pitcher. There’s no interest in Cincinnati bats on the road in one of the few negative run environments in play tonight.
Gary Sanchez has a 309 wRC+ and .559 ISO vs RHP plus 30%+ projected ownership tonight
If we start with the elephant in the lineup, Gary “Babe” Sanchez has a 309 wRC+ and .559 ISO vs RHP this year now and a 390 wRC+ with a 47.6 Hard% over the last week. He’s not this good, of course, and gets a significant downgrade in Kansas City, at least in terms of power, but it’s not a negative run environment at all and RHBs have hit Dillon Gee reasonably well (.327 wOBA since last season). If you are going to consider a bat from this lineup, he’s probably it, though our Projected Ownership page sees him with upwards of 30% popularity on either site tonight and there are some reasonable pivots elsewhere that players might want to consider. Otherwise, this is a team that doesn’t hit RHP very well. Aaron Judge, in a small sample, is the only other bat with an ISO above .182 and now they enter a much less power friendly environment. Dillon Gee has a serviceable 11.7 K-BB% since the break with a great defense behind him in a big park. Five of his eight HRs since the break have been surrendered on the road and the Yankees have a below average 11.0 HR/FB on the road. He could cover a minimum priced punt on DraftKings against an offense with just an 84 wRC+ on the road this season.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Dillon Gee, Aaron Judge Rockies LHB find themselves in a better matchup than many may think at first glance
Right-handed batters basically become unplayable against Kenta Maeda. That even includes at Coors Field. Maeda has absolutely elite strikeout stuff to righties (29.6% K%), and he does a phenomenal job suppressing hard contact (25.3%). That’s enough for us to avoid Rockies righties in this spot (yes, even Nolan Arenado). Left-handed batters are an entirely different story, though. Maeda has slightly below-average strikeout stuff to lefties (19.5%), and he allows plenty of hard-hit fly balls (33.5% Hard%, 40.4% FB%). While we obviously take a risk rostering hitters against Maeda, ownership on Rockies bats should be fairly low, which makes it easier to swallow the potential risk. The pitching profile of Maeda falls right in line with the strengths of both David Dahl (131 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .255 ISO vs RHP) and Carlos Gonzalez (125 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .225 ISO vs RHP), giving each of them some really nice power upside tonight. Charlie Blackmon (127 wRC+, .392 wOBA, ..260 ISO vs RHP) is also in play, as he nearly always is at Coors against a right-handed pitcher.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Kenta Maeda Yu Darvish has struck out a season low five in two of his last three starts, hosts a dangerous Seattle offense tonight
Yu Darvish walked a season high five Reds in his last start, tying a season low with just five strikeouts for the third time this season and the second time in three starts as his strikeout rate is down to 26.7% over the last month. It should give players more confidence that his 30.1 career K% is more in line with his 30.3% season rate now, though there may be a bit of concern tonight. He’s a fly ball pitcher (0.93 GB/FB) with a nearly average 29.7 Hard% in a dangerous park, facing a dangerous offense with the Mariners (15 HR/FB on the road and vs RHP) coming to town tonight. The good news is that they have a team 21.0 K-BB% over the last week, so there’s still significant upside in this spot. Darvish is still certainly playable for less than $11K on either site, but may not be an absolute top play tonight. Amid an offense with a 63 wRC+ over the last week, Cano (159 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP this season) and Seager (161 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP this season) both have a wRC+ above 200 over the last week. Nelson Cruz (135 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP this season) costs less than $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz Musgrove owns a 24.6% K-BB% to RHB through four starts
Joe Musgrove has given up 13 earned runs and four home runs in his last two outings (just a combined 9.1 innings pitched). The advanced statistics support a bit of bad luck for Musgrove (.438 BABIP in his last start), but there are concerns to be had nonetheless. Musgrove (3.50 SIERA) will take on the A’s tonight, in what will be his easiest matchup of his brief big league career. Musgrove has had a couple bad starts in a row, but he has been much better against right-handed batters than left-handed batters which puts him in a prime matchup to succeed against this Athletics lineup. The Athletics struggle against right-handed pitching and they generate little hard contact, which could set up nicely for Musgrove and the Astros bullpen. If there are any Musgrove haters out there, be sure to consider that the Astros have the best bullpen in baseball by just about every metric. It’s probably wise to stay away from Athletics offense entirely today if fading Musgrove.
As reported by: FanGraphs