DFS Alerts
Cleveland offense appears to be in prime let-down spot in matchup with Martin Perez
Right-handed batters who can hit the ball hard is the best way to attack Martin Perez, so a Cleveland hitter like Mike Napoli (143 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .246 ISO vs LHP) with his 50% hard hit rate is going to make a strong play. Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, and Jose Ramirez (121 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .160 ISO vs LHP) are less exciting options, as they hit a ton of ground balls with below average hard contact against lefties. All that does is play into the strengths of Perez, as he as uncanny ability to limit damage against him when the batted balls go his way. This a clear stack or fade situation in tournaments since Perez doesn’t get beat by the long ball very often, even in starts where he is blown up.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Martin Perez
Flores (173 wRC+, .311 ISO) and Ruggiano (175 wRC+, .303 ISO) affordable lefty mashers vs Morgan
The normally predominantly LH Mets are a little bit healthier and now a little bit more RH coming into a matchup against a pitcher that RHBs have a .373 wOBA and 35.7 Hard% against in his career. There are several reasonably priced Mets bets in a great spot here with Yoenis Cespedes (190 wRC+, .319 ISO vs LHP this season) not being one of them, but projecting as one of the top overall bats. Wilmer Flores (173 wRC+, .311 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is a $2.5K lefty masher on FanDuel, while Justin Ruggiano (175 wRC+, .303 ISO vs LHP since 2015) plays that role on DraftKings for $2.9K. Asdrubal Cabrera (121 wRC+, .121 ISO vs LHP) has not hit for much power against southpaws, but is a top value SS in the second spot of potentially potent lineup tonight with a 146 wRC+ and 47.4 Hard% since returning from the DL.
Other tagged players: Justin Ruggiano, Adam Morgan, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes
Stephen Piscotty hammers LHP (161 wRC+, .257 ISO since 2015) and has a 218 wRC+ over the last week
Despite facing the LH Detwiler tonight, the Cardinals change very little in their lineup and project for five runs against a pitcher that has been hammered by RHBs since last season (.454 wOBA, 32.3 Hard%). While both Carpenter and Moss hit LHP better than most LHBs, Detwiler has held them to a .291 wOBA and 19.8 Hard%. Without any reduction in cost, players should look more towards the RHBs tonight. Stephen Piscotty (161 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP since last season) has been red hot (218 wRC+ over the last week) and is a top OF bat against most LHPs. Further down in the order, but $1K less, tournament players could try a similarly hot bat in Randal Grichuk (110 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP since 2015). He has a 224 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. Jedd Gyorko has just a 100 wRC+ and .132 ISO vs LHP since last season, but costs less than $3K out of the two spot tonight and has a 158 wRC+ with a 57.1 Hard% over the last week. Perhaps an unconventional middle to bottom of the lineup stack is in order here, though the top half could prevail against a mediocre bullpen according to today’s Relief Brief.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Relief Brief Other tagged players: Randal Grichuk, Jedd Gyorko, Ross Detwiler Vegas is projecting the Astros for 4.8 runs despite tough matchup with Smyly
Drew Smyly is an a spot to be an interesting tournament option this evening. He has declined this year, failing to deliver on the promise that he showed last season. His SIERA has also increases to 4.01, and his strikeout rate has plummeted from 28.0% last year to just 23.5% this season. The good news is that he has been better of late, allowing two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. Houston has a dangerous offense, but they are prone to being shut down by high-strikeout arms at times and are just above league average against left-handed pitching. They also have the seventh highest team strikeout rate against left-handed pitching (22.7%). Smyly has potential to be a low-owned, high risk, high reward pitcher on this slate. Jose Altuve (197 wRC+, .459 wOBA, .238 ISO vs LHP) and George Springer (173 wRC+, .424 wOBA, .312 ISO vs LHP) are the Astros we want most if attacking Smyly in this matchup, but they should be reserved to just contrarian options in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, George Springer The Orioles enter Yankee Stadium with a 17.3 HR/FB vs RHP
Luis Cessa was better than anyone had any right to expect in his first start in Anaheim. Most experts still eventually project him to eventually end up in the bullpen though and he returns home for a much tougher matchup with the Orioles. A .208 BABIP has kept his 4.02 overall ERA more than a half run below his estimators, so there’s reason for concern tonight. Having faced just 100 major league batters, we don’t have reliable splits yet, but they don’t appear to be separated by too much. Chris Davis (116 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP this season) has a 158 wRC+ and 47.1 Hard% over the last week and is the obvious bat here, though the top seven all have a wRC+ above 110 against RHP this season and only Kim (142 wRC+) has an ISO below .200. He is also the only one in that group that costs less than $4K on DraftKings. Overall the Orioles have a 17.3 HR/FB vs RHP.
Other tagged players: Hyun-Soo Kim, Luis Cessa Kluber is a splits-neutral pitcher but draws a tough matchup in Texas
It has been a really inconsistent season for Corey Kluber, with some bad starts mixed in to his game log, but his overall pitching profile is still fairly strong. He does a great job at limiting hard contact, with a hard hit rate of 26.9% on the season. His 3.44 SIERA is also very respectable. His strikeout rate is above league average at 25.4%, and his walk rate is solid at just 6.2%. There’s just really not any one area where Kluber is significantly deficient. Cleveland also allows Kluber to pitch deep into games, and this will continue into the season’s final five weeks as the Indians are in the midst of the race for their division. This is a tough matchup against a potent Rangers offense in Arlington, but the upside is always there with Kluber. We don’t expect a massive ownership percentage for Kluber, either, as the masses tend to ignore pitchers who are pitching in Texas. Kluber definitely is an intriguing tournament play give his skill set and projected ownership.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Low priced appeal on both sides of the Liriano vs Twins matchup
This matchup presents an interesting situation with possible low priced upside on either side. Franscisco Liriano has just an average K%, but a reduced walk rate (7.7%) in three starts since the trade. The Twins have a 5.0 BB% and 6.5 HR/FB over the last week and strike out 22.9% vs LHP and 24.9% on the road, while Liriano costs just less than $7K on DraftKings. If he’s on, he might be able to crush that price. The Twins are projected just 3.8 runs. When he blows up, he really blows up though and the Twins do have some cheap bats that can hit LHP. While Liriano has improved control this this month, he still has a 35% hard hit rate and for the season he has a career high 18 HR/FB mostly pitching in a great park for a LHP in Pittsburgh. The Minnesota conversation against LHP starts with the one expensive bat, Brian Dozier (191 wRC+, .392 ISO), but Robbie Grossman (169 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Miguel Sano (141 wRC+, .246 ISO) have both spanked southpaws this year and are $3.7K or less on either site. Jorge Polanco (116 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP) is another above average bat who costs $3K on either site. Picking the right side of this matchup could lead to profit or players could make multiple lineups picking both sides.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco Luke Weaver is near the minimum on DraftKings with the A's projected for less than four runs
Luke Weaver has struck out nine of his first 41 major league batters with three walks and two HRs. He threw 96 pitches last time out, despite going just five innings, so there are no pitch count concerns. He was the 27th pick in 2014 and has pitched just one game at AAA, but had a 25.3 K-BB% in 77 AA innings this season with exceptional control through the minors. Whether he could use a bit more polishing at AAA is a legitimate question, but he certainly seems to have the talent to pitch at this level and hasn’t embarrassed himself so far. The A’s are tough to strike out (18.6 K% vs RHP), but they sacrifice a DH from a lineup that already struggles to generate power against RHP (10.5 HR/FB). It’s a nice run prevention spot at home for a talented pitcher who costs just $4.2K on DraftKings. The A’s are projected for just under three and a half runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Justin Verlander (22.1 K% last three starts) faces lowest strikeout offense in the majors (15.8% vs RHP)
Justin Verlander has struck out 17 of his last 77 batters, which is a fine rate, but hardly inspiring against a $10K price tag facing the lowest strikeout rate in baseball (15.8% vs RHP), while a .212 BABIP and 81.8 LOB% over the last month has kept his 2.31 ERA over a run below his estimators. He hasn’t pitched poorly, but with our Projected Ownership page expecting him to be the most popular pitcher on either site, players might want to consider a fade here. The Angels are projected for just 3.5 runs, but there are several teams in that range with a few even below them tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Blue Jays have the the highest implied run total on the slate, currently sitting at 6.2 runs
Pat Dean has a 5.48 ERA that is somewhat inflated due to a .341 BABIP, as his 4.34 SIERA is more than a full run better than that. The issue is that he has been particularly bad against right-handed bats, and the Blue Jays are loaded with them. Dean is very good against left-handed batters, allowing just a 9.4% line drive rate to go along with a 68.8% ground ball rate and a 21.9% hard hit rate. Against righties, these numbers are incredibly worse. The line drive rate jumps to 21.2%, the ground ball rate plummets to 38.9%, and the hard hit rate skyrockets to 37.2%. Stacking up the right-handed batters for Toronto makes a ton of sense here, but it will be an extremely popular option. In cash games, Troy Tulowitzki (.193 ISO vs LHP) and Jose Bautista (.214 ISO vs LHP) are the preferred plays, as their prices are significantly cheaper than the rest of the Blue Jays lineup. Josh Donaldson (167 wRC+, .419 wOBA, .234 ISO vs LHP) and Edwin Encarnacion (145 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .297 ISO vs LHP) are elite plays as well but are definitely more costly on most sites.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Bautista, Patrick Dean Justin Upton has a 270 wRC+ and 61.5 Hard% over the last week, faces reverse split RHP Nolasco tonight
Ricky Nolasco could be in trouble in Detroit tonight. There are a few teams projected for more than the Tigers at five runs tonight, but RHBs have a .367 wOBA and 34.9 Hard% against him since last season, while the Tigers have two RHBs who’ve hammered RHP since 2015. Miguel Cabrera (157 wRC+, .223 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (140 wRC+, .246 ISO) may be top overall bats tonight, but are also very expensive. Justin Upton (113 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is coming around in a big way (270 wRC+, 61.5 Hard% last seven days) and may be the bargain here for just $3.5K on DraftKings.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, JD Martinez Gonzalez is a massive home favorite, as the Rockies are only implied to score 3.6 runs
Gio Gonzalez is expected to contend for the most popular pitching option on DraftKings tonight, as portrayed by our projected ownership page (be sure to check back closer to lock for most accurate projections). Gonzalez carries a much more name recognition than the other pitchers in this price range, though that doesn’t necessarily make him a good play. This is a good matchup, however, as the Rockies are much worse away from Coors Field. They rank just 26th in team road wOBA this season, and they project as a weaker offense against left-handed pitching as most of their best hitters swing from the left side. His 22.3% strikeout rate is higher than most cheap pitchers, and that 4.09 SIERA isn’t far off from what you would expect at this price range. Gonzalez has been good against left-handed batters this year, and the Rockies seriously lack quality righties, especially with D.J. LeMahieu and Mark Reynolds out of the lineup. If Gonzalez can work his way around Nolan Arenado (120 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .267 ISO vs LHP) without allowing too much damage, he should easily be able to live up to expectations tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado Brian McCann is OUT, Gary Sanchez has a .517 ISO vs RHP, .332 wRC+ over the last week
Yovani Gallardo went seven innings for just the second time this season in his last start, but with just three strikeouts. Sporting his lowest GB rate since 2008 (42.8%), Yankee Stadium becomes an especially dangerous park for him, though the Yankees don’t have much left in the way of LH power with perhaps their top bat in that department on the bench tonight in Brian McCann. Gallardo has no real platoon split this year, splitting his 11 HRs nearly even as well with batters from both side around a .350 wOBA. We all know the reason McCann is benched (though it’s surprising he’s not the DH here) though. Gary Sanchez is the most popular Yankee these days and for good reason. He has a 207 wRC+ at Yankee Stadium and a 287 wRC+ with a .517 ISO vs RHP, bumping up to 332 wRC+ and 52.6 Hard% over the last week. His cost is increased, though still not enormous, but so has his popularity (see our Projected Ownership page, which has him above 10% on either site on a full slate). Fade him at a weak position at your own risk in cash games right now. As for the rest of the lineup. Mark Teixeira is tied for the lineup lead among LHBs with a .153 ISO vs RHP this season. He costs less than $3K on either site because he also has a 60 wRC+ against them.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Mark Teixeira, Yovani Gallardo David Phelps has struck out 26 of 80 batters since moving into the rotation
David Phelps has struck out 26 of 80 batters since moving into the rotation, including 17 of his last 41. with a SwStr above 11% in each of his last two starts. While his velocity has dropped as expected moving from the pen to the rotation, it’s still up a couple of notches from previous seasons. He’s gone a bit deeper in each start and finished with 96 pitches last time out, so there should be no pitch limit concerns and he’s in a great spot against one of the worst offenses in baseball. They may be a bit better against RHP at this point, but strike out a quarter of the time against them and on the road with a strikeout rate above 30% over the last week. This version of Phelps may even be viable for $8.7K on DraftKings, but is perhaps one of the top plays on FanDuel for much less ($7K). The Padres have tonight’s lowest run projection (3.1). Our Projected Ownership page currently has him as the second most popular pitcher behind Verlander there. For the Padres, Ryan Schimpf (150 wRC+, .357 ISO vs RHP) continues to pound the ball (198 wRC+, 53.8 Hard% over the last week) for $3.6K or below on either site, while Alex Dickerson (120 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is cheap enough ($3.1K or less) to deserve some consideration also.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Ryan Schimpf, Alex Dickerson Ian Kennedy is allowing a massive 53.1% FB% and 37.7% Hard% to LHB
Over his last four starts, Ian Kennedy has allowed just a total of two runs. He has definitely been pitching well the last few weeks.. However, he tends to allow a lot of home runs (1.70 HR/9), and his hard hit rate (37.4%) is astronomically high for a “good” pitcher. Ironically, both of the runs he has allowed over those last four starts have come on solo home runs. This may not be the spot to load up on Red Sox bats with how well Kennedy has been lately, but they make for interesting one-off plays in tournaments if we are just going home run hunting. The usual power suspects of David Ortiz (.360 ISO vs RHP), Mookie Betts (.235 ISO vs RHP), and Jackie Bradley Jr. (.273 ISO vs RHP) are the top candidates in hopes that they put one or two balls in the seats off Kennedy.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Ian Kennedy