The Relief Brief: Friday, August 26th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-27 03:10:09

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Thursday night features a nine-game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Jeff Hoffman wasn’t overly impressive in AAA this season (4.02 ERA), and our expectations for his big league results should be tempered back as well. Hoffman did post 124 strikeouts through 118 innings in the minors, but there is little else to be excited about. Hoffman allowed six earned runs through four innings against the Cubs in Colorado in his first big league start. He’ll face the Nats tonight, and while the environment is much more friendly, the opposition is no walk in the park. Expect the Nationals to get into this Rockies bullpen sometime around the sixth inning. The Rockies bullpen owns the tenth worst SIERA in baseball this season.

Pat Dean started six games in May and June this season, but had very little success. He last started a game on August 9th (in AAA), in which he lasted just 2.1 innings. I don’t expect the lefty to impress tonight against the Blue Jays. We should see plenty of the Twins already fatigued bullpen, which has allowed the fifth most HR/9 allowed on the season at 1.27.

Steven Wright returns to take the hill for the first time since August 5th. Wright has been battling shoulder issues, but will be good to go tonight. Wright has tossed six innings or more in 16 of 22 starts, and should be able to kick it back into action against the Royals. I expect a six-inning performance from Wright here. The Royals aren’t a team that we neither fear nor like to utilize in our lineups, but the Red Sox do bullpen has the ninth worst team SIERA in baseball over the last 30 days.

Martin Perez has thrown at least six innings or more in six of his last seven starts, and his peripheral numbers have looked a bit better over that span as well. Still, his xFIP for the season sits at 4.80. Perez will have to take on the Cleveland Indians here. Perez does a good job of limiting hard contact, but if he struggles here, the Indians could be in an ideal spot as they face the Rangers bullpen that owns the eighth worst SIERA for the season and allow the fourth most HR/9 on the season.

Drew Smyly has six straight starts of six innings pitched or more. Smyly will face the Astros in Houston tonight. Smyly is a good bet for six innings or so, but I’d be very surprised if he went for more than six plus here. Expect to see somewhere around three full innings of the Rays bullpen in this one. The Rays ‘pen has an average SIERA, but they do have the second most HR/9 allowed on the season, which happens to be one of Smyly’s biggest struggles as well (26 HR allowed).

After neutralizing the Orioles in his first start of the season back on August 10th, Ross Detwiler has shown his true colors in his last two starts, in which he has combined to throw 8.2 innings with 11 earned runs. Detwiler will face the Cardinals here, and while the Cardinals do struggle against lefties, there is still goodness to be had. Detwiler is unlikely to go beyond five innings, and the A’s bullpen is very mediocre.

Brandon Finnegan shut down the Dodgers over seven innings in his last start, and has pitched much better overall in the month of August. Unfortunately for Finnegan, Arizona owns the best team wOBA against left handed pitching on the season (.350). Don’t expect a great outing from Finnegan here, and safely expect the Diamondbacks to see a good amount of the Reds bullpen. In case you forgot, the Reds relief unit owns the worst SIERA in baseball this season, including a HR/9 rate of 1.69.

Braden Shipley has been obliterated in his last two starts, in which he has combined totals of 10.1 innings, 13 earned runs and four home runs allowed. While the Reds aren’t an offensive juggernaut, they have some sneaky potential against a young and struggling pitcher as well as a bullpen that rivals the Reds own relief unit in the basement of bullpen rankings.

Mike Montgomery has 14 starts in 2016 between the big leagues and the minors. Montgomery has predictably struggled in the big leagues as he figures out how to pitch to big league hitters, but he’s also shown some decent strikeout potential. The Dodgers rank 29th in the league in team wOBA against lefties, so M&M might be in line for a decent performance tonight. I’d recommend staying away from Dodgers bats altogether for the reasons listed above as well as the fact that the Cubs bullpen has the sixth best SIERA over the last 30 days as well as the second best bullpen strikeout percentage over that stretch as well.

Joel De La Cruz isn’t a young pitcher (27), but only just made it to the big leagues this season. So far in 2016, De La Cruz has seven starts and has not exceeded six innings in any of them, mostly due to ineffectiveness (4.47 ERA – 5.25 xFIP). The Giants haven’t been playing inspiring baseball lately (especially at the plate) but they’re still capable of getting to De La Cruz and getting into this Braves ‘pen. The Braves struggle as a bullpen, posting a SIERA of 4.05 for the season.

My Top 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Minnesota Twins
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Arizona Diamondbacks

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

Jeremy Jeffress was arrested early this morning on suspicion of DWI. Jeffress is (sadly) one of the more reliable arms in the Rangers ‘pen, so the fallout will be worth paying attention to.

The Diamondbacks recalled Silvino Bracho from AAA. A bad bullpen somehow just got worse.

The Braves recalled Brandon Cunniff from AAA. Cunniff has been decent in the minors, and horrible in the big leagues. He should serve as middle relief.

The Twins called up lefty Andrew Albers from AAA. He should serve as a fresh arm for longer relief outings.

The Nationals traded for A’s lefty Marc Rzepczynski. “Scrabble” has struggled with control issues, but has been steady against lefties in his career, which should be his role with the Nats.

3. Other Notes And Insights

Here are the Dodgers’ team ranks against lefties this season.
wOBA – 29th
ISO – 28th
wRC – 29th
wRC+ – 28th
HR% – 26th

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