DFS Alerts
Wilson Ramos OUT again as Jeff Hoffman makes first career start outside Coors
Jeff Hoffman was thumped by the Cubs at Coors in his major league debut. That was a terrible matchup to start his career. It’s quite a bit closer to neutral today in Washington and while he did walk too many batters at AAA (8.6%), he also increased his strikeout rate and had a 15.6 K-BB%. He surely has the talent to cover just a few hundred above the minimum on DraftKings in this spot. The Nationals are projected for 5.4 runs against a relative unknown to most casual fans, so their bats are costly. Trea Turner (136 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP career) is the only one of the three well above average bats against RHP that costs less than $5K on DraftKings, while Bryce Harper (175 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP, 172 wRC+ at home since 2015) is the only one of the three below $4K on FanDuel. With this spot potentially not being as juicy as the line, there may not be a ton of value here.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Bryce Harper
Robbie Ray leads the majors with a 28.2 K-BB% since the break
Robbie Ray has always been able to miss bats, but used to have an issue with walks and hard contact. Now, he only has a hard contact issue as it’s actually up to 39.8% since the break and always a concern at home, but less so against an Atlanta offense with just a 28.5 Hard% and 6.5 HR/FB vs LHP this year. Ray has turned some of those walks into more strikeouts and now leads the majors with a 28.2 K-BB% since the All-Star break. He and Scherzer are the only two pitchers with a strikeout rate above 23.5% tonight and are easily the top two pitchers. There may be a few Atlanta bats worth looking at though because RHBs do have a .329 wOBA and 37.7 Hard% against Ray since last season. Most of the Atlanta futility vs LHP was prior to Matt Kemp, who has a 142 wRC+ and .254 ISO vs LHP since last season. Anthony Recker (134 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has some upside as a very cheap Catcher tonight, while Adonis Garcia (114 wRC+, .166 ISO vs LHP since 2015) bats higher in the order for less than $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Anthony Recker, Adonis Garcia Matt Wisler set to make his first start in nearly a month, has posted a 5.0% K-BB% to LHB
Matt Wisler has returned to the Braves starting rotation in time for a start against the Diamondbacks, and he is far more talented than his low price tag would indicate. His pitching profile, however, does not reflect that yet as he has had problems putting everything together at the major league level and got demoted after an awful stretch earlier in the season. His 4.68 SIERA and 38.1% hard hit rate are entirely unimpressive, though he has done better against left-handed bats this year than in the past. It’s tough to gauge exactly how owned the Diamondbacks offense will be in tournaments with all the other offenses in prime spots. It’s probably a little too risky to roll with Wisler as a pitching option, but we should probably avoid both sides of this matchup. There’s no need to force the Arizona bats, but Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt and Jean Segura would be the batters to target if going in that direction.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Jean Segura, Matt Wisler
Pence remains cleanup, Belt dropped to seventh vs RH Stripling
Ross Stripling has been a perfectly serviceable fifth starter for the Dodgers, partially because he’s one of the few arms that has remained healthy, but 17.7 K% isn’t going to do much for daily fantasy players against an offense with just a 7.8 K-BB% vs RHP. Stripling has exhibited a major reverse split though (RHBs .339 wOBA, 37.7 Hard% – LHBs .238 wOBA, 30.1 Hard%), so props to Bruce Bochy for taking advantage and moving Hunter Pence (122 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP since 2015) up in the order, but perhaps dropping their best hitter vs RHP, Brandon Belt (134 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP since 2015), to seventh is a bit extreme. Buster Posey (126 wRC+, .142 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is another reasonably priced option worth looking at here.
Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Ross Stripling, Buster Posey Hamels actually has a higher strikeout rate to RHB (24.1%), but does allow 1.14 HR/9 to RHB
Cole Hamels could be an interesting tournament option tonight, but it’s always tough to really feel comfortable playing him when he’s pitching in Texas. This is especially true when he is facing a dangerous offense like the Indians. Hamels is not quite as good as his 2.80 ERA would indicate, as his SIERA actually sits right at 4.00. He does usually get the job done, but there are some warning signs of decline. His hard hit rate has jumped from 27.0% last year to 29.5% this year. His walk rate is also up from 7.1% to 9.0%. Again, these are slight concerns, but the signs are definitely there. Hamels is the preferred route we should take if targeting this matchup but is reversed as a tournaments only play. DraftKings is taunting us to take a chance on Indians bats with their low price tags and it could pay off big in tournaments if Hamels does get blown up.
As reported by: FanGraphs No significant concerns in Kevin's evening update
There’s a slight chance of a delay in the Mets Cardinals game, but otherwise no concerns at all in Kevin's late report. Read full his outlook for this game on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Anthony Ranaudo owns a career -1.3% K-BB%
The Mariners look to be one of the top tournament stacks of the night, and they always tend to go under-owned despite ranking a very respectable 7th in wOBA and 9th in ISO against right-handed pitching this year. Additionally, Seattle gets to face a terrible right-handed pitcher in Anthony Ranaudo tonight. Ranaudo owns putrid numbers that include a 9.42 ERA, a 7.29 SIERA, a 19.1% walk rate, and a 10.3% strikeout rate this season. Obviously, we are dealing with a limited sample size, but Ranaudo has never carried any sort of prospect pedigree through the minors. He has exemplified some reverse splits thus far, but the sample size is too small to really put any weight into them. In fact. his career major league numbers are relatively splits-neutral. We can realistically target anyone in the top six of the Seattle. Seth Smith (117 wRC+, .340 wOBA, .153 ISO vs RHP) and Adam Lind (.209 ISO vs RHP) are cheap, while Robinson Cano (155 wRC+, .395 wOBA, .260 ISO vs RHP), Kyle Seager (159 wRC+, .401 wOBA, .244 ISO vs RHP), and Nelson Cruz (136 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .219 ISO vs RHP) are premier options in any format.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Anthony Ranaudo LHBs have a .353 wOBA and 34.3 Hard% against Chad Kuhl, who gets a park downgrade in Milwaukee
Chad Kuhl has a 3.62 ERA over a run below his estimators due to a .267 BABIP and 8.3 HR/FB, but has a perfectly average 31.7 Hard% and gets a major park downgrade traveling to Milwaukee tonight. He has just a 14.5 K%, so there should be plenty of balls in play tonight and an interesting Milwaukee lineup in a spot where they may be able to run a little. The main beneficiary is leadoff man Jonathan Villar (108 wRC+ vs RHP this season), who has 50 SBs. Kirk Nieuwenhuis (98 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP this year) hasn’t been bad and costs $3.6K or less on either site. LHBs have a .353 wOBA and 34.3 Hard% against Kuhl so far this season, while RHBs are at .245 and 28.3%. Captain Kirk might be the best bet for a HR tonight, though we’re not completely writing the red hot Chris Carter off (97 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP this season, 224 wRC+, 50 Hard% last seven days).
Other tagged players: Jonathan Villar, Chris Carter, Chad Kuhl Josh Tomlin has allowed a league leading 32 HRs this year and at least one in 21 of 23 starts
Josh Tomlin has allowed 32 HRs this season and at least one in 21 of 23 starts. He doesn’t walk anybody though (3.0%), which is probably what keeps him in the rotation. It’s even led to a 14.0 K-BB% not much lower than Hamels. If he can keep it to just a solo HR or two, he could cover $5.5K on DraftKings, but he is pitching in a dangerous park in Texas tonight against a lineup with just a 95 wRC+ vs RHP, but they are projected for five runs and have seven bats with at least a .173 ISO vs RHP. The issue is that most of them are LHBs and Tomlin has held LHBs to a .263 wOBA since last season, though he has allowed just as many HRs with a higher hard contact rate (36%) against them, just more ground balls. RHBs have a .357 wOBA and 33.7 Hard%. Moreland, Odor, Beltran and Mazara are all slightly above average LHBs against RHP with an ISO between .180 and .225, all costing a similar price as well. LHBs seem to be HR or nothing against Tomlin so players can take their pick among that group. From the RH side, Beltre and Desmond are league average bats with slightly above average power against RHP this year, while Lucroy (128 wRC+, .203 ISO) has been the best, but also the most expensive. Tomlin has allowed a HR in 91% of his starts this year and the Rangers have some power in the top seven. It’s likely just a question of who will hit them, while we don’t know if we can count on much from those who don’t.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Ian Desmond, Josh Tomlin, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor, Mitch Moreland Cardinals bats may fly a bit under the radar despite solid 4.9 implied run total
Seth Lugo draws his second start for the Mets tonight, but frankly, he should not be on our radar for any format. He has over 21 appearances (14 starts) at the AAA level this year, and accumulated a 6.50 ERA and a 4.68 FIP to go along with a mediocre 18.2% strikeout rate. Over his first 23 2/3 major league innings, he has a 4.07 SIERA and is allowing hard contact 37.3% of the time. Lugo is in a tough spot drawing a matchup with the team that ranks 3rd in all of baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Feel free to target some St. Louis hitters here, though none of them come at any sort on DraftKings (I know, surprising). The top of the order, Matt Carpenter (158 wRC+, .410 wOBA, .289 ISO vs RHP), Brandon Moss (156 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .368 ISO vs RHP), and Jedd Gyorko (138 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .349 ISO vs RHP), is where we want to focus our exposure to the Cardinals offense but a full stack in tournaments is certainly in play.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Brandon Moss, Jedd Gyorko, Seth Lugo Melky Cabrera OUT as James Paxton returns to face White Sox
James Paxton returns from a DL stint stemming from an elbow issue. He’s faced just 11 AAA batters over the last two and a half weeks and the Mariners will likely be cautious, severely hampering any value he might have today at a high cost, though $7.3K on FanDuel could still be interesting if he can get through five with a lead, which his bullpen then holds. He does have an 11.5 SwStr% and 21.5 K% and is facing a below average offense (92 wRC+ at home, 95 wRC+ vs LHP) without one of there few competent bats (Melky Cabrera) tonight. He also has an odd reverse split. LHBs have a .351 wOBA against him in his career, though he’s only allowed three of his 19 HRs to them, while RHBs have a .279 wOBA with four times as many plate appearances. Robin Ventura will not take advantage of this, moving up Avisail Garcia (95 wRC+, .123 ISO vs LHP since 2015) instead of Justin Morneau (101 wRC+, .161 ISO vs LHP since 2015) in the order tonight. There one interesting bat in the Chicago lineup is right-handed and bats second. Tim Anderson (124 wRC+, .174 ISO vs LHP) wouldn’t have to do much to cover $2.3K on FanDuel for players looking to save at SS.
Other tagged players: Avisail Garcia, Justin Morneau, Tim Anderson Cheslor Cuthbert batting second for Royals, NOT Christian Colon
It seems the Kansas City lineup was inadvertently posted incorrectly in the stadium today, but Christian Colon is NOT playing. Cheslor Cuthbert is batting second for the Royals tonight.
As reported by: Joel Goldberg Other tagged players: Christian Colon Polanco and McCutchen have a hard hit rate above 60% over the last week
Wily Peralta has been slightly more palatable since being recalled, but still has just a 16.9 K% with a 4.65 SIERA. Batters from either side have a wOBA above .375 against him since last season, though LHBs have a hard hit rate (35.8%) just over five points higher. Unfortunately, the Pirates have just two LHBs in the lineup, but both are great plays tonight. Gregory Polanco (125 wRC+, .222 ISO) carries a high price tag, especially on DraftKings ($5.4K), but leads the team in both wRC+ and ISO (by over 60 points) vs RHP. He’s potentially one of tonight’s top overall bats (65 Hard% last seven days) in a great run environment. Josh Bell still has a minuscule major league resume, but has a 129 wRC+ over the last week and costs less than $3K on either site. The other interesting bat here may be Andrew McCutchen (102 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP this season), who has a 60% hard hit rate over the last week, is second in ISO vs RHP this year and costs $700 less than Polanco or Marte on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Wily Peralta, Josh Bell, Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte Happ continues to outperform his perphirals and a home matchup with the Angels isn't as ideal as it seems
The advanced metrics of J.A Happ continue to suggest regression, but he just continues to overcome with sparkling surface stats that include a 17-3 record and a 3.05 ERA. He has benefited significantly from a .269 BABIP, which would be the best BABIP he’s ever posted in a full season if it holds. His 22.0% strikeout rate is generally lower than what we would expect for a pitcher that costs $10,900 on DraftKings, evidenced by a 4.08 SIERA that is more than a full run higher than his ERA. Happ is surrendering hard contact 31.7% of the time, and again his metrics just don’t really stand out. This is an okay matchup against the Angels, and Happ is a large favorite, so the play does make sense on some levels. We should continue to pass on Happ, as the price tag is a huge over payment for the skill set of Happ. He might be a better play in cash games than tournaments, however, since he is such a big favorite. Per usual, we should avoid most of the Angels batters. Mike Trout (129 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .160 ISO vs LHP) is most definitely in play, though, as he is basically matchup proof. Jett Bandy (176 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .333 ISO vs LHP) and Albert Pujols (135 wRC+, .365 wOBA, .248 ISO vs LHP) can also be considered if looking to save salary at either position
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Jett Bandy, Albert Pujols Marlins face struggling Volquez, but have no above average bats vs RHP aside from Yelich (150 wRC+, .222 ISO)
Edinson Volquez has been even more awful than usual over the last month with a 44.7% hard hit rate. The Marlins have so little power at this point though, that you stop to look at his $5.4K price tag on DraftKings a second time. They have a 10.2 HR/FB at home and 10.3 HR/FB vs RHP for the entire season and over the last month, mostly without Stanton they are tied for the second fewest HRs in the majors (23) with their opponents tonight, behind just only the Giants. Christian Yelich (150 wRC+, .222 ISO) is one of only two batters with a wRC+ above 100 or an ISO above .106 vs RHP this season. He’s also one of two bats with a wRC+ above 50 over the last week and appears to be the only reasonable choice in this matchup.
Other tagged players: Edinson Volquez