DFS Alerts
Chase d'Arnaud now batting 2nd and playing SS, Aybar scratched
Analysis coming soon.
Erick Aybar appears to have been dealt to Detroit, likely to be scratched Tuesday
Aybar has reportedly been dealt to the Tigers, which would force him out of tonight’s lineup. We’ll continue to update.
As reported by: @Tigers Jhoulys Chacin owns a putrid 2.7% K-BB% versus LHB
The Mariners offense finds themselves in a possibly even better spot than their Angels counterparts. Jhoulys Chacin has some respectable numbers against right-handed batters this season, but as had no such luck against left-handed batters. The only measurable skill that Chacin has exhibited against lefties is a 53.9% ground ball rate, but that is accompanied by a 12.2% strikeout rate and 36.8% hard contact rate. Clearly the Mariners lefties are the bats we want to target in this matchup. Kyle Seager (163 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .251 ISO vs RHP) and Robinson Cano (155 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .272 ISO vs RHP) are priced accordingly for this spot but are definitely the top options in this lineup. Seth Smith (121 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .158 ISO vs RHP) and Adam Lind (.213 ISO vs RHP) are more tournament plays but can certainly be included in any Seattle stacks as well.
Other tagged players: Robinson Cano, Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Jhoulys Chacin
Taillon may trade off some strikeouts for a park uprade in San Franscisco
The Giants have a good offense (112 wRC+ at home), but are only average against RHP (100 wRC+) despite a low 7.7 K-BB% because of a negative run environment in San Francisco that greatly suppresses power. They have just a 7.2 HR/FB at home and 8.5 HR/FB vs RHP. It’s one of the few parks players might feel a bit more comfortable accepting a lower projected strikeout rate with a decent pitcher in exchange for positive expectations on batted balls. Such may be the case tonight with James Taillon, who has a 21.0 K% and just three walks in five starts since the All Star break. He does have a 20.0 Hard-Soft% this season though, so the trade off in such a tough hitting environment might pay off for him, especially for just $7.6K on FanDuel. He is not currently the favorite, but a small dog at just 105 and facing a struggling pitcher in Samardzija, so a Win ins’t assured, but far from out of the question with the Giants only projected for 3.5 runs. The only bat worth of consideration against a good pitcher in a bad park might be Brandon Belt (153 wRC at home, 140 wRC+ and .199 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who costs just $3.6K on DraftKings.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Brandon Belt
Mets LHB in elite spot on the road versus Braden Shipley
Braden Shipley has remarkably only allowed two earned runs in his last three starts and currently sports a dazzling 2.96 ERA that couldn’t be flukier. This is evidenced by a 5.24 SIERA, 17.0% strikeout rate, and 12.0% walk rate. He also has a 5.11 xFIP and 41.5% hard contact rate allowed to left-handed batters, putting the Mets lefties firmly in play. Jose Reyes (.160 ISO vs RHP) seems to be healthy after being activated from the disabled list over the weekend, notching three hits and steal already. Curtis Granderson (.205 ISO vs RHP) looks to take advantage of Shipley as he owns a 35% hard-hit rate and 44% fly ball rate that should play well in the hitters’ environment of Chase Field. Jay Bruce has massive home run upside in this matchup with his 39% hard-hit rate and .291 ISO versus right-handed pitching.
Other tagged players: Jose Reyes, Curtis Granderson, Braden Shipley Kevin's evening update has some pitcher risk in the northeast
There seem to be many spots that could see some rain tonight (graded YELLOW), but the worst of it in Kevin’s late report appears to be in the northeast, potentially affecting games in Philadelphia (vs the Dodgers) and New York AL (vs the Blue Jays) the most, though both are still expected to play with a YELLOW/ORANGE grade. A mid-game delay could put Kenda Maeda or Michael Pineda at risk, but that’s not for certain, so players will want to read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page (linked below) to access risk and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Angels implied run total has increased to 4.4 runs after opening at a mere 3.7 runs
Ariel Miranda seems like he could be a serviceable pitcher but is only making his second major league start on the road tonight against the Angels. With a minimal sample size in the big leagues, it’s tough to fully analyze the ability of Miranda at the major league level. His numbers at AAA this season weren’t overly impressive but weren’t bad either (20.7% K%, 13.3% K-BB%, 3.79 FIP). We’d have to give the edge to the Angels offense in this spot as they take on the young lefty. The Angels have this rep that they are a putrid offense, but they are actually an above-average team versus left-handed pitching (108 wRC+, .326 wOBA, .154 ISO). Mike Trout is the obvious top play in this lineup and may go overlooked (as he seemingly always does) with the other high team totals on the slate. Yunel Escobar (155 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .172 ISO vs LHP), Albert Pujols (135 wRC+, .365 wOBA, .245 ISO vsLHP), Jefry Marte (.267 ISO vs LHP), and Cole Calhoun (120 wRC+, .344 wOBA, .159 ISO vs LHP) would be the other best options to consider as a part of an Angels stack in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols, Jefry Marte, Kole Calhoun, Ariel Miranda Maddon stacks RHBs vs reverse platoon Anderson with Szczur leading off in 2nd game of DH
You’d expect Joe Maddon to take advantage of Chase Anderson’s reverse splits. RHBs have a .363 wOBA and 35 Hard% against him since last year and the Cubs have stacked the lineup with RHBs aside from Rizzo (152 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who still might be the top bat in the order and Zobrist (115 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2015), whom Maddon may even persuade to bat right-handed. Matt Szczur (134 wRC+, .154 ISO vs RHP this season) gains instant top value consideration in the leadoff spot for a below average cost on either site. Kris Bryant (138 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP career) is a very strong and multi-position eligible bat on DraftKings. Jorge Soler (102 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP this season) bats cleanup for just $2.9K on FanDuel and has a 230 wRC+ over the last week. Willson Contreras (116 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP) has a 152 wRC+ and 46.2 Hard% over the last week and is a great, moderately priced Catcher play in a lineup projected for five runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Chase Anderson, Matthew Szczur, Jorge Soler, Willson Contreras Nationals are the proud owners of the highest implied run total tonight (6.1)
The reverse splits of Chad Bettis could work in the favor of the Nationals, as Daniel Murphy (169 wRC+, .428 wOBA, .274 ISO vs RHP) and Bryce Harper (124 wRC+, .361 wOBA, .209 ISO vs RHP) are good enough hitters to overcome his 54.4% ground ball rate to left-handed batters, and the remaining right-handed batters get the benefit of the 15.6% strikeout rate of Bettis that is accompanied by a high 35.5% hard contact rate and lower 48.8% ground ball rate. The other elite options sprinkled throughout the Nationals order would be Trea Turner (155 wRC+, .407 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP), Wilson Ramos (138 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .178 ISO vs RHP), and Anthony Rendon (.192 ISO vs RHP). With that said, there is a case to be made for any hitter in the Washington lineup for tournaments given the matchup and hitting environment.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Wilson Ramos, Anthony Rendon, Chad Bettis Rockies have 3rd highest run projection at home tonigth (5.6), but have been bad vs LHP (22.5K%, 90 wRC+)
The Rockies are projected for 5.6 runs tonight (third highest), but that’s almost entirely park related because they aren’t very good against LHP (90 wRC+, 22.5 K%). In fact, Gio Gonzalez may almost be too cheap on DraftKings ($5.9K). He does have a 22.5 K% (matching the Rockies vs LHP) this season with a 4.24 ERA and league average estimators. Even if we don’t expect him to pitch well, he doesn’t have to do too much to cover that price, while he’s been very tough on LHBs (.274 wOBA since last season) and the Rockies run three of them out there tonight (two of the top four). DJ LeMahieu (134 wRC+, .168 ISO vs LHP this season) may be tonight’s top second base option, while Nolan Arenado (126 wRC+, .283 ISO vs LHP this season) is always a strong bat at home. Ryan Raburn has not been as good vs LHP this year (93 wRC+), but still has a .234 ISO against him, while the cost (below $3.5K on either site) and environment make him a decent value play.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Ryan Raburn, Gio Gonzalez Logan Forsythe scratched, Nick Franklin will now lead off and play 2nd base
Franklin now becomes one of the more intriguing value targets of the day as the Rays leadoff man. He’s been very boom or bust for the most part this year but has continually hit towards the bottom of the lineup, so his run producing opportunities should rise as a result of this news. Franklin owns a .359 wOBA and .200 ISO against RHP this season, albeit in a relatively limited sample size.
As reported by: @Rays Other tagged players: Nick Franklin Lucas Harrel has allowed a .357 wOBA to RHBs this season and has to face Khris Davis (122 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP)
Lucas Harrell has just a 7.7 K-BB% and is facing an offense that has not been good vs RHP (89 wRC+), but has been difficult to strike out (18.4% vs RHP). While he has allowed just a 27.4 hard contact rate to both right and left handed batters, RHBs have a .357 wOBA against him (LHBs .295) due to a 12.3 BB%. In an offensively advantageous park, the A’s are projected for 4.8 runs and Harrel’s reverse split actually plays into their hands as they really don’t have many potent LHBs, but have a few RHBs who have fared decently against same handed pitching in the top half of the order. Khris Davis (122 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be the first place to look, but Danny Valencia bats second and costs just $3.6K on DraftKIngs. He’s been only average against RHP this year (98 wRC+, .139 ISO), but is in a great spot at an affordable price and has a 145 wRC+ away from Oakland since last season.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Danny Valencia, Lucas Harrell Syndergaard has fallen victim to a .407 BABIP since the All-Star Break
Noah Syndergaard still has outstanding advanced stats on the season, but he has just not been the same dominant pitcher that we came to know and love since he began dealing with the bone spur in his elbow back in June. Syndergaard is obviously still a great pitcher, but he hasn’t been able to go longer than six innings in any of his previous six starts and also hasn’t topped eight strikeouts in these outings. The fact that we are disappointed by eight strikeouts just shows the immense upside that Thor possesses, however. Syndergaard has “only” posted a 27.3% strikeout over the last month, “lowering” his strikeout rate to 29.7% on the year. Tonight, Syndergaard travels to one of the better hitters’ parks in baseball to face a beatable Diamondbacks offense, but we would be better off relegating our exposure to him to strictly tournaments given the ballpark downgrade and caliber pitchers priced around him.
As reported by: FanGraphs Dallas Keuchel has a 15.5 K-BB%, 65.3 GB% and 4.1 Hard-Soft% at home this season
Dallas Keuchel had his last start washed out after two innings and it was for the best as it wasn’t very good, but not all of it was his fault with seemingly everything hit finding outfield grass. His last official start was a three hit shutout against Texas at home, where he has pitched very well this year (15.5 K-BB% and 65.3 GB% with a 4.1 Hard-Soft%). Another factor in his favor is that the Cardinals are a below average offense vs LHP (92 wRC+). In fact, the Cardinals have just three above average hitters against LHP in today’s lineup. Stephen Piscotty (171 wRC+, .281 ISO) is a force against southpaws and is probably the one bat worth considering in this spot at what seems like a reduced cost on either site. Matt Carpenter, batting third tonight, has a 125 wRC+ and .178 ISO vs LHP this season, but Keuchel has dominated LHBs (.225 wOBA, 22.5 Hard% since last season). The only other batter with a wRC+ above 86 against LHP this season is Yadier Molina (111 wRC+) who’s power has disappeared (.120 ISO). Dallas Keuchel is a bit of a sneaky strong play for $9K or less in a matchup that may be better than it first appears.
Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina Lucroy sits as Rangers likely face bullpen game against A's, started by Triggs
The Rangers are facing a rookie spot start, but probably a lot of bullpen too and that, along with a great run environment is really where they’re offensive advantage lies. The Relief Brief labels the middle relief corps of the A’s “susceptible”, but it’s difficult to know how they’ll match up after the first few innings (Andrew Triggs has never pitched more than four innings). The difficult part is that Rangers bats, especially through the top half of the order, aren’t very cheap and Profar leads the team with a 115 wRC+ against RHP this year. In fact, he might be the top bargain for $2.8K on FanDuel as a switch hitter atop the lineup. Carlos Beltran is a switch-hitter that hits well both ways, probably making him the top bat in this lineup, but he’s not cheap either. The top power bat in this lineup actually belongs to Robinson Chirinos (76 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP this year), though the Rangers have actually shown some power against RHP with Beltran, Odor and Moreland all between a .223 and .231 ISO vs RHP this season. The Rangers may hit their projection of 5.7 runs today (second highest), but it may be a team effort with several bats which may be difficult to afford together.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Relief Brief Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Andrew Triggs, Rougned Odor, Mitch Moreland, Robinson Chirinos