DFS Alerts
Light weather concerns in several spots, more serious in Pittsburgh
Kevin’s evening update comes calls for a slight chance of precipitation in several spots, but the only real concern in the San Diego Pittsburgh game. With Ryan Vogelson and Edwin Jackson going, it's not much of a concern from the pitching end, but the small chance of a PPD (though not likely according to Kevin) does pose some risk for hitters in this game. Read his full report on our Weather Page (linked below) and follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Yovani Gallardo has a 3.7% K-BB% this season
Gallardo (5.45 SIERA) has struggled this season, to put it mildly. He is clearly no longer that ace quality pitcher he once was when pitching for Milwaukee back in the day. As seen by his low K-BB%, Gallardo is having issues with his control and strikeout stuff. This should play right into the hand of the Athletics as they don’t strikeout a lot to begin with. Taking the ballpark and lineup into consideration, this matchup just screams stack or fade as the Athletics really lack individual power upside against right-handed pitching outside of Khris Davis (.257 ISO). The top options (if you want to call them that) to consider for Oakland stacks would be Ryon Healy (.237 ISO vs RHP), and Coco Crisp (.197 ISO vs RHP). Marcus Semien and Yonder Alonso are also in play for tournament stacks solely based on their lineup positions.
Other tagged players: Ryon Healy, Coco Crisp, Yovani Gallardo
Milwaukee is projected for 5.1 runs against de la Cruz, but have few potent bats vs RHP
Joel de la Cruz has a 3.2 K-BB% with a 36.0 Hard%. The Milwaukee offense is projected for 5.1 runs, but only have two expensively priced batters who are above average hitters against RHP. Those are Ryan Braun (126 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Jonathan Villar (112 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015, 45 SBs this year). Both have a wRC+ above 200 and with a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week and are among the top bats at their positions tonight, but no other batter has an above average wRC+ either against RHP this year or overall the last seven days.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Joel De La Cruz Anderson has reverse splits, owns a 13.1% K-BB% to RHB
Not only does the reverse splits of Anderson set up well for him in this matchup against the Braves, but Anderson has been in great form lately, allowing fewer than two earned runs while striking out at least five in all of his previous three starts. One downside here would be that this game takes place at the home run friendly Miller Park opposed to the more spacious Turner Field. The price and matchup are the primary appeals of rostering Anderson in this spot since if he is able to navigate his way around the likes of Matt Kemp (.191 ISO vs RHP) and Freddie Freeman (120 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .234 ISO vs RHP), he should manage to put together a solid performance for his price tag.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Freddie Freeman Texas has the top projected lineup tonight (6.1 runs) with Beltran (179 wRC+ vs LHP) returning
This series switches to Texas for two games, which is an offensive step down from few parks aside from Coors, so Jorge de la Rosa’s .343 wOBA allowed to RHBs since last season should probably be taken with a small grain of salt, though they do have a .369 wOBA on the road against him this year too (.306 last year). The Rangers are projected for a slate high 6.1 runs with the top four batters projecting extremely well and firmly in play on either site with only Desmond (131 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP since last season) above $3.3K on FanDuel. Over on DraftKings, he and Beltre (146 wRC+, .230 ISO vs LHP since 2015) are the two bats below $4.5K, while Beltran is seeing the ball extremely well from the right side this season (179 wRC+, .289 ISO vs LHP) and may be the top overall bat. Shin-soo Choo has hit southpaws remarkably well in a small sample this year as well (212 wRC+, .361 ISO). Though that hasn’t been the case historically, he does sit atop the top projected lineup tonight. Elvis Andrus has been surprisingly strong vs LHP this year (133 wRC+, .178 ISO) and is more than a viable SS for $2.8K on FanDuel.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ian Desmond, Shin-soo Choo, Jorge De La Rosa, Adrian Beltre Matt Adams (undisclosed) scratched on Wednesday
Matt Adams has been scratched on Wednesday, and the club has not yet provided a reason for his absence. Jhonny Peralta will now bat 5th and play 3rd base with Matt Carpenter shifting over to play 1st base. This is a slight upgrade for Anthony DeSclafani but he’s still not a recommended DFS option against a tough Cardinals lineup. Carpenter, Moss and Wong are all viable targets against DeSclafani and the porous Reds bullpen.
As reported by: Jenifer Langosch Other tagged players: Jhonny Peralta
Pirates implied run total holding steady at a respectable 5.1 runs
Edwin Jackson has remarkably been able to produce decent results in two of his four starts thus far, but that success will be far from sustainable if his 5.52 SIERA, 12.7% strikeout rate, and 10.1% walk rate accurately depict the caliber of pitcher he has become. It’s not a stretch to say that Jackson would not be a major league pitcher if San Diego had any other better options. He has a -2.6% K-BB% against left-handed batters with a 6.04 xFIP and hasn’t been much better against right-handed batters with 5.12 xFIP, 43.3% fly ball rate, and 32.3% hard contact rate. Starling Marte (135 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .158 ISO vs RHP) and Gregory Polanco (135 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .225 ISO vs RHP) would be the Pirates hitters that are firmly in play in any format but a Pirates stack is certainly a viable option as well. Josh Harrison and Jung-Ho Kang (.211 ISO vs RHP) would be the best options to consider pairing up with Marte and Polanco as a part of a stack.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Gregory Polanco, Jung-Ho Kang, Josh Harrison, Edwin Jackson Despite just being projected for 3.5 runs, it's difficult to roster a pitcher against the low strikeout Angels
Though the Angels are one of several teams projected for a low of 3.5 runs tonight, it’s often difficult to roster pitchers against them due to their major league low strikeout rate (15.4% vs RHP). That happens to be the case for an inconsistent Jason Hammel who costs at least $8K on either site and hasn’t even completed six innings in eight of his 21 starts. While players should not look to attack him or a strong Cubs bullpen now, Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is always a top outfield bat, while Kole Calhoun (113 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs less than $3K now on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Kole Calhoun, Jason Hammel Ian Kennedy has a 28.4 K% at home this season with just eight of his 26 HRs.
Ian Kennedy has a 28.4 K% at home this season along with a ridiculous 0.71 GB/FB and 28.4 Hard-Soft%, but it’s only led to a league average 13.8 HR/FB in that big park, while his defense does the rest of the work (.278 BABIP). Perhaps feels more confident challenging hitters in this park and is in a decent spot tonight against a below average offense (87 wRC+ on the road, 88 wRC+ vs RHP). While that kind of upside for less than $9K on either site has Kennedy firmly in play, it doesn’t preclude the few bats with any power against RHP in this lineup from consideration. Both sides can benefit from the current situation. Todd Frazier (98 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP this season) is the only bat with real power. He does cost just $3.3K on FanDuel. The good news is that Kennedy has no real platoon split with batters from either side hitting the ball hard more than 35% of the time with a wOBA between .325 and .341 since last season. Justin Morneau (less than $3K on either site) joins Jose Abreu (less than $4K on either site) as the most potent bats with a .172 ISO each vs RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Todd Frazier, Justin Morneau, Jose Abreu Martin Perez owns a 0.8% K-BB% to RHB
Perez has allowed a minimum of five earned runs in four of his last six starts. It can sometimes be frustrating to attack Perez because he occasionally finds a way to limit the opponent’s damage with a high ground ball rate (53.5%), but has a frightening 9.7% against right-handed batters that just needs to be targeted. Perez has a much higher ground ball rate to left-handed hitters, knocking them down a peg as viable options, but the 33.4% hard contact rate and 4.96 xFIP to righties exhibits his vast downside. Nolan Arenado (137 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .296 ISO vs LHP) is the only Colorado bat that can really be considered in any format. The remaining Rockies righties, D.J. LeMahieu (129 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .162 ISO vs LHP) , Ryan Raburn (.243 ISO vs LHP), Nick Hundley (.197 ISO vs LHP), and Mark Reynolds, should be reserved for tournaments if stacking Colorado.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Ryan Raburn, Nick Hundley, Mark Reynolds, Martin Perez Top three Kansas City bats are very affordable with a 150+ wRC+ vs LHP this season.
Jose Quintana is a quality pitcher but his strand rate (81.1%) is 4.5 points above his previous career best, while his SwStr rate is plummeting (7.8% now). It’s well below average and his career rate now, though his K% is up (22.3% a career high). These issues may be significant enough to take him out of play for more than $9K in a marginal spot in Kansas City. While this is still not a pitcher players should normally attack as the Royals are projected for just 3.8 runs, there may be some value in the top three spots filled by RHBs, who have hit LHP well (all 150+ wRC+ this season) at a low cost ($3.5K or below on DK, $3K or below on FD). Lorenzo Cain is the top lefty masher here (179 wRC+, .254 ISO) and is not even the most expensive of the three on FanDuel ($2.8K), while Orlando and Cuthbert both add an ISO above .150 to their 150+ wRC+ against LHP this season. Cuthebert even has two HRs in nine PAs against Quintana. It seems a far cry and major improvement over consistently batting Alcides Escobar leadoff the last few years.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Cheslor Cuthbert, Jose Quintana, Paulo Orlando, Alcides Escobar Ryan Vogelsong is allowing a 34.1% Hard% this season
Ryan Vogelsong clearly does not belong in the majors anymore. He managed to pitch relatively good back in 2014 but that’s about the extent of his major league success. Vogelsong has posted basically average strikeouts (19.0% K%) to go along with a not terrible 4.38 SIERA in a small sample size of 27 innings this season. Voglesong never really exhibited any sort of significant platoon splits throughout his career but left-handed batters in the Padres order will definitely be our preferred targets here. Ryan Schimpf (137 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .336 ISO) is the top option in this spot given his stellar numbers against right-handed pitching. The secondary targets to consider as stacking options with Schimpf would be Alex Dickerson (144 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .284 ISO vs RHP), Travis Jankowski (136 wRC+, .370 wOBA vs RHP), and Yangervis Solarte (129 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .196 ISO vs RHP).
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Alex Dickerson, Travis Jankowski, Yangervis Solarte, Ryan Vogelsong Dallas Keuchel has gone at least 6 innings with 2 ERs or less in 6 of last 7 starts with a 56 GB% and 25 Hard%
Dallas Keuchel has gone at least six innings with two ERs or less in six of his last seven starts with an atrocious outing in Detroit two starts back really holding back his overall numbers. He has the same league average K% and 56% ground ball rate over that span, but his 25.0 Hard% is a bit more in line with the quality of contact generated last season. He threw a shutout in his last start and is in an interesting spot tonight. The Twins have a 23.4 K% vs LHP, but also several high quality lefty mashers (14.1 HR/FB vs LHP) and have a hot offense overall (128 wRC+). He would still seem like a strong play for just $7.7K on DraftKings and a reasonable play for $1K more as a -140 favorite on FanDuel. For the Twins, Sano, Dozier, and Grossman all have a wRC+ above 160 with a .200+ ISO vs LHP this season. Dozier boosts those numbers to 201 and .409 with a 173 wRC+ and 51.9 Hard% over the last week, but seems more playable for $1.7K less on FanDuel. Miguel Sano (248 wRC+, 43.8 Hard% last seven days) seems more viable to take a shot with on either site at $4.2K or less, while Grossman has been slumping lately, but costs just $2.7K on FanDuel. While RHBs still hit the ball on the ground 56% of the time, they do have 15 of his 17 HRs allowed this season, 13 of which have been on the road. The Twins are still projected for just 3.8 runs though.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman Cardinals go heavily LH against DeSclafani (LHBs .347 wOBA since last season)
Anthony DeSclafani has had an ERA more in line with his estimators all around 3.70 over the last month, though his K% increase has not come with a SwStr% increase and he’s pitched in several good parks in Pittsburgh, San Diego and San Francisco. For the season, his 2.94 ERA still sits more than a run below estimators due to 79.5 LOB%, while LHBs continue to thump him (.347 wOBA since last season). Seeing this, the Cardinals load up with six LHBs as Stephen Piscotty sits out. While Matt Carpenter (159 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains the top bat, injury concerns are still relevant, as he has just a 57 wRC+ since returning, but a 38.5 Hard% suggests better. Brandon Moss has a 170 wRC+ and .386 ISO vs RHP this season. Kolten Wong (104 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) has been a disappointment, but has a 247 wRC+ over the last week and should draw some interest for $2.7K on either site out of the two spot tonight. Matt Adams (97 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the other bat for consideration at $3.1K or less.
Other tagged players: Brandon Moss, Kolten Wong, Matt Adams, Anthony DeSclafani Rays traded away a couple of lefty mashers, but have more in reserve and a 136 wRC+ over last week
The Rays have recently traded away two of their more pronounced lefty mashers (Guyer & Pearce) and look a bit more balanced, but still have Logan Forsythe (157 wRC+, .280 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Evan Longoria (145 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP since 2015) at the top and bargain play of the day Mikie Mahtook (165 wRC+, .300 ISO vs LHP since 2015) for $2.1K on either site. All have a wRC+ above 165 with a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week as the Rays are one of the hottest offenses in the league with a 136 wRC+ over the last week. J.A. Happ has improved over the last month as he’s begun throwing his fastball again more often, as he did last season when he broke out in Pittsburgh, but stopped doing earlier this season. He still has an 80.7 LOB% pumping up his 3.09 season ERA, while his 10.6 SwStr% over the last month, while improved, does not support a 30% strikeout rate. He may be a bit aggressively priced in what could be a difficult spot tonight, especially for $11.7K on DraftKings. He does not have much of a platoon split though with batters from either side having a wOBA right around .300 against him since last season.
Other tagged players: Mikie Mahtook, J.A. Happ, Evan Longoria