DFS Alerts

This Team Dominates Hitter Projections Tonight

The Atlanta Braves top a 24 team board at 6.3 implied runs at Coors tonight against Chad Kuhl with the Toronto Blue Jays well behind with a 5.47 run team total that’s second best. The New York Yankees (5.06) are the only other team above five. It’ll surprise nobody that these are the three offenses that dominate tonight’s PlateIQ projections. While the Yankees are the only one of the three teams to place a single batter among the top 10 projected hitters tonight, Aaron Judge (162 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP) is the second best projected bat on the board on either site and only one of the top four who will not be wearing an Atlanta uniform. Elvin Rodriguez has struck out 10 of 48 batters with just a 7.5 SwStr% and 10.4 BB%. The marginally regarded 24 year-old (40 FV Fangraphs) projects as a spot starter or rotation depth type. Tonight, he projects as Judge’s dinner.

As mentioned, three of the top four and four of the top 10 projected bats are Braves tonight. Chad Kuhl’s last four strikeout totals are eight, zero, one and seven, illustrating a wide range of potential outcomes on any given outing. An overall 9.9 K-BB% comes with an equally odd contact profile, which includes a 90.5 mph EV with a 38.6 GB%, but just 6.2% Barrels/BBE. A 3.71 xERA is his only estimator below four. That he does have a bit of a split (LHBs .355 wOBA since last year, RHBs .312) could help him a bit against a predominantly RH lineup, but it’s unlikely to save him. Ronald Acuna Jr. (143 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the top projected bat on the board, followed by Matt Olson (140 wRC+, .227 ISO), Austin Riley (138 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (90 wRC+, .180 ISO).

The Blue Jays are the only other team with multiple top 10 projected bats. You can probably guess that those are George Springer (137 wRC+, .277 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (160 wRC+, .281 ISO). Chi Chi Gonzalez has a career 3.7 K-BB% over 261.2 major league innings, 101.2 of them coming for Colorado last year, over which he produced a 6.3 K-BB% (Hey! Improvement!) He’s delivered a 13.9 K-BB% in 36.2 AAA innings this season. Projections and sports books are not expecting his return to the major leagues to go well for him.

Park Upgrade & Great Matchup Could Nullify This Pitcher's Biggest Problem

Despite the top four projected point per dollar values on FanDuel costing $8.8K or less, players may be more inclined to pay up for pitching tonight. Nathan Eovaldi ($8.8K) may be the exception, as he projects as a top value on either site ($8K DK) in a matchup that really lowers the risk on his largest issue this season. While he has actually increased his K-BB (21.3%), he’s already allowed one more home run that last season. In fact, Eovaldi’s 16 home runs are the second highest total allowed in his career. Pitchers generally don’t see 80% of their barrels leave the yard, but 12% Barrels/BBE nearly doubles his career rate (6.6%), while a 91.7 mph EV is also a career high by nearly a full mph. The obvious result is contact neutral estimators below his 3.77 ERA and contact inclusive ones above. However, tonight the Red Sox are in Oakland, which is not only a massive park upgrade, especially from a power suppressing standpoint, but the A’s have a 75 wRC+, 23.9 K% and 7.5 HR/FB vs RHP.

The good news for DraftKings players is that there are plenty of cheap pitchers who project as great values, who can be paired with higher priced arms. The top projected value on DraftKings is currently Zach Eflin for just $6.1K. Outside his 12 strikeouts against the Dodgers two starts back, he has not exceeded five in any of his other seven starts. So, while we have to take even his 21.6 K% with a grain of salt right now, a 5.1 BB%, 83.9 mph EV and 5.4% Barrels/BBE are all driving estimators that are a run or more below his 4.60 ERA (59.1 LOB%). He’s completed six innings in four of his last five. The park is difficult and the Angels are potent, but also strike out a ton against RHP (116 wRC+, 14.6 HR/FB, 24.9 K%). Eflin’s too cheap here.

Yusei Kikuchi ($6.5K) also projects as a strong value on FanDuel ($8.0K). After getting through a murderous schedule of predominantly right-handed mashing lineups in April, Yusei Kikuchi has allowed just four runs over his last 15.1 innings against more marginal ones, while striking out 17 of 66 batters. Consider that he may be a bit better than season estimators above four and 11.8% Barrels/BBE with an 11.1 K-BB% when a lot of his stats have been compiled against the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox (six starts). Not that the Mariners, Angels or even Twins tonight (106 wRC+, 20.7 K% vs LHP) have been easy matchups this season either.

James Kaprielian also projects as a top value on either site for $6.2K or less. In fact, he currently projects as the top FanDuel value. He has struck out three or fewer in four of his six starts with 13 of his 21 strikeouts coming in his other two. With just an 8.5 K-BB% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE, his best estimator is a 4.78 SIERA through six starts, even if all are better than his 5.93 ERA. However, he pitches in a great park and his numbers were much better last season (16.3 K-BB%). The Red Sox have a 104 wRC+ and just 20.9 K% vs RHP.

Friday's Board is Loaded With Premium Pitching

It seems a rarity to have a uniform slate this week, but that’s just what we have on Friday night as both DraftKings and FanDuel offer 12 games. That means 24 pitchers with no less than three pitchers exceeding the $10K mark on both sites, while two others reach that price point on FanDuel alone. In fact, the most expensive pitcher on the board costs $11.2K on FanDuel, but Shane McClanahan is $1.6K less on DraftKings. He is this year’s proof that the Rays are always going to have young stud pitching, no matter who gets hurt or traded. Not only has he only failed to strike out at least seven only once (31.9 K-BB%), while allowing just 7.0% Barrels/BBE with 52.7% of his contact on the ground, but he’s completed six innings in four straight starts. You have to be kind of a big deal for the Rays to let you do that. His second worst estimator, a 2.60 FIP, is actually a bit of bad luck with seven of nine barrels leaving the yard (21.2 HR/FB), though it’s balanced by an unsustainable 90.5 LOB%. We know the Trop is a negative run environment, but for all of the issues the White Sox are having this year, they still punish LHP (122 wRC+, 21.1 K%, 15.6 HR/FB). Yet, McClanahan has been so good that he’s still one of the three best projected arms by PlateIQ (projections are fluid and subject to change) and obviously a better value on DraftKings, though not projected as a top value on either site. To read more about the biggest standout among top priced arm and who may be the best pivot, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Balancing Projected Performance w/ Pricing Creates Different Dynamics Between Sites

With the Braves so far ahead of the rest of the board, especially on DraftKings, at 6.28 implied runs, it would be a shock if they weren’t projected to be the most popular stack tonight. In fact, their Own% on DraftKings is currently at 30%, more than double the next most popular projection (Yankees). With Cincinnati (5.28) being both available only on FanDuel and being much cheaper, there’s a much smaller projected gap in Own% between those two teams there. However, the Braves smash the slate in simulations more than twice as often as any other stack on both sites, which creates an interesting dynamic when we get to Leverage Ratings. As just mentioned, Cincinnati bats are cheap in a great spot on FanDuel and project for nearly a 20 Value% with Cubs just ahead of Braves on DraftKings, which is more a function of how well we expect the latter to perform than their pricing. For more on those Leverage Ratings dynamics, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Nearly Half of This Top Offense Projects for Great Value

Your need for value bats tonight will basically depend on whether you’re paying all the way up for one of the top arms on the board and/or planning on stacking Coors or Dodger bats. If so, the great news is that the team with the second highest implied run line on the board (5.28) may also be the lineup with the most value on FanDuel. PlateIQ projections have four Cincinnati Reds among the top 10 point per dollar projected values for $3K or less on FD tonight. Joey Votto (151 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the top projected value on the board. Nick Senzel (76 wRC+), Aramis Garcia (39 wRC+) and Tommy Pham (102 wRC+, .150 ISO) are not far behind. As you can see, this is mostly due to park (Cincinnati is the top offensive environment in the league according to Statcast) and matchup. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Joan Adon, who simply can’t find the plate often enough (12.9 BB%, 6.1 SwStr%).

The Reds are only available on FanDuel, but that’s okay because the same projections also suggest Seattle bats may be top values on either site against Jordan Lyles, who is actually having a decent season in the new confines in Baltimore, but if we’re regressing, batters from either side of the plate still own a wOBA and xwOBA between .339 and .369 against him since last season. Taylor Trammell (117 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is actually the top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings, while Mike Ford (108 wRC+ since being called up) joins him as a top projected value on both boards for $2.1K or less. Jesse Winker (142 wRC+, .217 ISO) is currently the second best projected value on FanDuel ($2.6K), though projections are fluid and subject to change.

Despite the pitcher friendly weather at Wrigley tonight, DraftKings projections also see Nolan Gorman (231 wRC+, .321 ISO vs RHP) and Corey Dickerson (88 wRC+ vs RHP since LY) as top values for $2.6K or less against Keegan Thompson (LHBs .330 wOBA, .324 xwOBA since 2021). Also, only available on DraftKings, Miguel Andujar and Aaron Hicks project as top values against Reid Detmers, who’s BABIP wizardry (.171) is responsible for most of his accomplishments with just a 10.1 K-BB% and 9.3% Barrels/BBE.

It's Literally Impossible to Stack All of the Top Projected Bats in This Lineup

Thursday night’s slate includes some pitcher friendly environments and/or weather (Miami, Wrigley, even Baltimore is a negative run environment now), but also the two highest run environments in the league. In fact, the newest Statcast Park Factors (rolling three years) places Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati as the top run environment in all of baseball, surpassing Coors Field, though you wouldn’t know that by yesterday’s output. Both of those games are on the slate tonight (at least on FanDuel), but only Coors has hitter friendly weather, according to Weather Edge (though that, like PlateIQ player projections, is fluid and subject to change throughout the day). The Atlanta Braves top the slate with a 6.28 team run line. They are the visiting team at Coors tonight. The only other two teams above five implied runs are the Reds (5.28) and Rockies (5.22) with the Dodgers (4.82) ahead of the visiting team in Cincinnati (4.72), the only other two teams exceeding a four and a half run team total. The game in Cincinnati is only available on FanDuel though.

PlateIQ projections love the Atlanta lineup tonight and it’s hard not to with the size of their edge over the rest of the board. Ronald Acuna Jr. (178 wRC+, .325 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the top projected bat on the board. Ozzie Albies (129 wRC+, .240 ISO) and Austin Riley (124 wRC+, .202 ISO) own top five projections. Marcell Ozuna (61 wRC+, .120 ISO), Matt Olson (148 wRC+, .303 ISO) and Dansby Swanson (110 wRC+, .225 ISO) are not far behind. It’s not even possible to stack all of the top projected Atlanta bats in a single lineup tonight. Austin Gomber has just a 1.2 K-BB% over his last four starts, though still had a string of five Quality Starts in six efforts going into his last outing when he faced just 14 Nationals with eight of them scoring. That shot his ERA up to 5.51 with just a 60.1% strand rate. However, a 3.99 xFIP is now his lowest estimator by one-third of a run. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .330 since last season. Close Daniel Bard also threw more than 40 pitches yesterday. This is a great spot for the Braves.

Surprisingly, there’s still room for the top third of the Dodger lineup among the top 10 projections tonight. Despite being swept by the Pirates at home this week, it’s not the fault of Mookie Betts (147 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since LY), Freddie Freeman (146 wRC+, .208 ISO) and Trea Turner (123 wRC+, .165 ISO), who are projected to punish Taijuan Walker, whose 2.83 ERA is mostly a function of just two of his nine barrels (8.0%) leaving the yard (5.7 HR/FB). He has just a 13.2 K% and 4.9 K-BB%. All of his estimators, even a 3.83 FIP are at least a full run above his actual results. Batters from either side of the plate have an xwOBA within two points of .330 since last season.

Weather Helps Make This Young Pitcher a Top Projected Value

This is a very difficult pitching board beyond the top two tonight, but what does give it some hope is advantageous (at least to pitchers) weather in some spots. In fact, though the wind isn’t blowing in that forcefully at Wrigley, Weather Edge still suggests a substantial offensive downgrade, which helps Matthew Liberatore currently project as a top two point per dollar value on either site tonight. He has walked five of his first 44 major league batters and while his 21 CStr% is highest on the board, his nine strikeouts come with just a 4.4 SwStr%. The Pirates barreled him three times in his first start, but the Brewers not at all in his second. His AAA numbers are quite impressive with a 17.3 K-BB% in 124.2 innings last season and a 21 K-BB% in seven starts this season. He currently carries a 50 FV grade on Fangraphs, which generally notes a middle of the rotation arm. The Cubs have a 103 wRC+, 23.7 K% and 15.0 HR/FB vs LHP, which would be more problematic with more hitter friendly weather, since Liberatore has posted sub-40% ground ball rates at AAA, but should be less of an issue tonight. Liberatore costs $8K or less on either site.

The only pitcher who exceeds Liberatore’s point per dollar projection via PlateIQ (which is fluid and subject to change) tonight is Alex Wood, who is only available on FanDuel in Miami. While all of his rate stats are fine (15.9 K-BB%, 49.6 GB%, 7.7% Barrels/BBE), he hasn’t completed six innings in a single start this year, which really hinders his shot at a Quality Start tonight. His 4.81 ERA is well above estimators (.360 BABIP) with only a 4.37 xERA above four. The Marlins have an atrocious 78 wRC+ and 29.7 K% vs LHP.

Tonight’s slate gets really tough on either site beyond that. You may even be considering guys like Chris Flexen and Jordan Lyles in Baltimore in your secondary slots on DraftKings. The former has somehow turned a 9.3 K-BB% and 11.1% Barrels/BBE into four Quality Starts in nine tries. Even with a 4.47 ERA, all estimators are higher, but the O’s have a 97 wRC+ and 22.3 K% vs RHP with just an 8.9 HR/FB at home this year. The latter is actually in the middle of a pretty respectable season. His 13.7 K-BB% and 7.9% Barrels/BBE are both perfectly average and he has four Quality Starts in his last six tries. A 4.63 xERA is his only estimator above a 4.26 ERA. The matchup is more difficult though (113 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP). Both cost less than $7K on DraftKings.

Thursday Night's Slate Belongs to Just a Couple of Arms

One more games on a seven game FanDuel slate on Thursday night with just six on DraftKings. It gets confusing after that because FanDuel has two early games not on the DraftKings slate, but does not include the second game of the double header in New York that’s on the DraftKings slate. Either way, we lose Shohei Ohtani as a pitcher due to the rainout yesterday, which makes this a very difficult pitching slate.

Sandy Alcantara is the most expensive pitcher on the slate ($11K), but only available on FanDuel. He’s completed seven innings in four straight starts, eight in three with 14 strikeouts last time out, bringing his season rate up to 24%, while maintaining an elite contact profile (51.8 GB%, 86.4 mph EV, 4.7% Barrels/BBE). All estimators are well above his 2.00 ERA, as 25% of his runs have been unearned, but all are also well below four with a 3.67 xFIP being the worst of them. The Giants are a difficult opponent (109 wRC+, 21.6 K% vs RHP) in a favorable park. He is the top projected pitcher on the board and likely a pretty strong value too. For more on tonight’s top arms, including the pitcher with the highest strikeout rate on the board, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The start of Angels-Yankees on Wednesday will be delayed due to rain

Game update: The start of Angels-Yankees on Wednesday will be delayed due to rain

Tommy Pham scratched Wednesday

Tommy Pham scratched Wednesday

Bryce Harper scratched Wednesday

Bryce Harper scratched Wednesday

Couple of Offenses Projected to Smash Despite More Pitcher Friendly Weather

With the Dodgers (5.68 implied runs) and Red Sox (5.06) separating themselves so much from the rest of the board, it’s no surprise that even with high price tags, they’re expected to be the most popular stacks tonight. Although both project for double digit ownership, it’s not a run away, as both the Yankees and Twins project for nearly as much ownership, the latter likely due to more affordable price tags against a good pitcher (Tarik Skubal). No surprise that the Dodgers and Red Sox also smash the slate most often in simulations, though the Brewers also reach a double digit Smash% against Kyle Hendricks, even though the weather is expected to be more pitcher friendly than it’s been recently at Wrigley. The Tigers are very cheap against Bailey Ober, who has some potential issues in his contact profile (22.6 GB%, 10.7% Barrels/BBE) and project as the top value stack on the board by a decent margin, although PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change. One of the above mentioned stacks has the top Leverage Rating on the board, while another has the worst. Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog for more.

Festivus Begins at Wrigley Tonight

Jason Alexander will be making his major league debut against the Cubs tonight. Hopefully he won’t be wearing the cotton uniform, though it may not be that uncomfortable with temperatures well below yesterday at Wrigley. Already 29, Alexander’s had a bit of a bizarro career, not even starting in pro ball until he was 24. He was never really supposed to crack the majors, being mentioned as “upper level rotation depth” in one particular scouting report from Fangraphs, but the Jerk Store…I mean Brewers called and invited him on up tonight to fill Freddy Peralta’s role in the rotation. Although Alexander is not available on either site tonight, the first eight in the projected Chicago lineup all have a 100 wRC+ or better against RHP since last season. With just an 11.1 K-BB% in 47.2 AAA innings this season, Milwaukee may be asking for serenity now if they give Jason Alexander too much of a leash tonight, but it could be a Festivus for the rest of us who stack Cubs.

Projections Suggest This Lineup is Roaring with Value

If you’re looking to stack the top offenses and don’t intend on going cheaper with your pitching needs, you’re going to need some cheaper bats and PlateIQ projections suggest several pairs/sets of teammates in secondary stacks that can get you there while potentially providing great value. Detroit is the only offense with several projected top 10 point per dollar value bats on both sites tonight. It doesn’t look like Baily Ober is striking out batters because he’s been pulled before 80 pitches in every start, but he has struck out nine of 33 since returning from the IL The 22.6 GB% can become a problem, especially with just a 7.0 IFFB% and 10.7% Barrels/BBE, but the 15.6 K-BB% is fine and could even rise, as his strikeout rate currently stands at just 21.4%. That said, non-FIP estimators are all a run or more above his 3.25 ERA for now. Ober’s not awful, but does have a rather large split (LHBs .350 wOBA, .341 xwOBA since last year), though LHBs also have a .330 xwOBA (.296 wOBA) and Tigers are cheap. Harold Castro (92 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) and Javier Baez (105 wRC+, .219 ISO) are $2.5K or less on FD. Daz Cameron (91 wRC+), Miguel Cabrera (91 wRC+) and Kody Clemens all cost $2.6K or less on DK.

FanDuel projections also believe a pair of Mariners offer value against Kyle Bradish, who has a 16.3 K-BB%, but an awful contact profile (12.2% Barrels/BBE, 92.6 mph EV). He has a massive reverse split of over .150 points by wOBA and xwOBA so far, but it’s still a pair of LHBs that are projected for great values for $2.6K or less in Jesse Winker (178 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP since LY) and Taylor Trammell (99 wRC+, .248 ISO). You can understand why PlateIQ likes the power in a park that was altered to suppress RH power, but not left.

As sure as you’ll almost always find Aaron Judge and Mike Trout among the top projected bats overall, you’ll generally find Kyle Garlick as a top value when the Twins face a LHP, even a pretty good one like Tarik Skubal. Garlick has a 131 wRC+ and .305 ISO against southpaws since last season and costs just $2.2K on DraftKings, where he’s the top projected value on the board. Nick Gordon (45 wRC+) also projects as a great value, costing the minimum. Despite major improvements made this year, RHBs still have a wOBA and xwOBA above .320 against Skubal since last year.

Two Offenses Separate From Rest of the Board

With more pitcher friendly weather on the Wednesday night slate, the Dodgers separate themselves from the rest of the board by more than half a run with a 5.68 implied run line. The Red Sox are second at a 5.04 team total and themselves isolated by nearly half a run in both directions on a 16 team slate. PlateIQ projections are very much in agreement with sports books tonight because while Aaron Judge (167 wRC+, .298 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the absolute top projected hitter on the board against Reid Detmers (RHBs .322 wOBA, .342 xwOBA career), the Dodgers and Red Sox are the only team with multiple top 10 projected bats tonight.

As a matter of fact, three of the top six projected hitters from either site are the top third of the Dodger projected lineup. Mookie Betts (132 wRC+, .218 ISO vs LHP since LY), Freddie Freeman (103 wRC+, .170 ISO) and Trea Turner (201 wRC+, .320 ISO) hit both left and right-handed pitchers well, though Jose Quintana has over a 100 point split (RHBs .356 wOBA, .369 xwOBA). With a mere 11.1 K-BB%, the majority of Quintana’s value has come from a contact profile that includes an 86 mph EV and 4.5 HR/FB, the latter being unsustainable, though even his FIP (3.22) is more than a run above his 2.15 ERA (five of 16 runs unearned). All additional estimators are above four. Will Smith (93 wRC+, .182 ISO) is also a top projected bat as well.

Hunter Greene throws 100 miles per hour with a 27.6% strikeout rate. That’s good. The bad? Literally everything else. He’s walked 11.8% of the batters he’s faced, kept only 28.7% of his contact on the ground, 23.4% of his fly balls have left the yard and 12.3% of his contact has been barreled. He’s allowed multiple home runs in four of his nine starts, though 40% of his barrels (six) came in a single start. The good news is that the contact profile will likely settle down at some point, but for now, he doesn’t own an estimator below four. Greene has a large reverse split so far (RHBs.428 wOBA, .382 xwOBA), though LHBs have had success too (.317 wOBA, .330 xwOBA). Like the Dodgers, the top half of the Boston lineup hits pitchers from either side well. Rafael Devers (152 wRC+, .341 ISO), J.D. Martinez (135 wRC+, .246 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (135 wRC+, .220 ISO) are all top projected bats.