DFS Alerts

Tons of Value Projected For This Stack Against Improved, But Still Vulnerable Pitcher

On a 12 (FD) or 13 (DK) game slate with 10 teams reaching four and a half implied runs, not a single stack reaches double digit projected ownership on FanDuel tonight. On DraftKings, however, Coors stacks (Miami & Colorado) appear to be affordable enough to double up almost every other offense in terms of projected ownership, even though there are several offenses with higher implied run lines. The two stacks that smash the slate most often in simulations are the two offenses with the top two team totals (Mets & Dodgers), although in reverse order. Current simulations (which are fluid and subject to change) have the Dodgers smashing the FanDuel slate 10.18% of the time, the only stack that smashes more than nine percent of the time on either site. The Tampa Bay Rays (20.96 Value%) nearly triple up every other team in terms of value projections on FanDuel, while both the A’s (13.04%) and Nationals (11.25%) reach double digit value projections on DraftKings. For more on which top offenses are also top rated stacks tonight, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Top Offense Projects For Great Value Too

While only Pete Alonso (139 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP since 2021) sits among the top projected batters by PlateIQ for the team with the highest run line on the board (5.55) against Patrick Corbin (RHBs 380+ wOBA & xwOBA since LY), the same projections (which are fluid and subject to change) certainly feels at least a couple of Mets are priced too cheaply on FanDuel. Both Eduardo Escobar (129 wRC+, .244 ISO) and J.D. Davis (84 wRC+, .079 ISO) cost less than $2.5K with projections believing they are top point per dollar plays tonight. While Davis’s numbers don’t look like much, his xwOBA against LHP since last year is 27 points higher than actual results and he certainly seems to be experiencing some run bad this season with the highest exit velocity in the projected lineup (93.5 mph) and his 13.2% Barrels/BBE behind only Alonso (14.7%).

Escobar and Davis aren’t the only pair of teammates that project for great value on FanDuel though, as we find a trio of both Rays and Mariners inside the top 10 projeted values tonight. With a 13.8 K-BB%, 55.8 GB% and just 2.5% Barrels/BBE, Martin Perez has been an above average pitcher with his worst estimator being a 3.70 SIERA. Not all of that may be sustainable (mostly the barrels), but he’s produced seven straight Quality Starts, four of them with at least seven innings pitched. We still have to regress those numbers though, and RHBs still have a wOBA and xwOBA above .330 against him since last year. Mike Zunino (204 wRC+, .455 ISO vs LHP since LY), Harold Ramirez (126 wRC+, .137 ISO) and Isaac Paredes (111 last 30 days) all cost less than $2.5K.

The Mariners are also an offense projections favor on a point per dollar basis. Baltimore may be more of a pitcher’s park now, but Kyle Lewis (122 wRC+, .191 ISO), Jesse Winker (144 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Taylor Trammell (108 wRC+, .254 ISO) all appear too cheap for their success against RHP. They’ll be facing whomever comes out of the Baltimore bullpen tonight, starting with Bryan Baker for a couple of innings.

DraftKings projections really favor Detroit Tigers in game two of their doubleheader against the Twins with several batters who cost $2.7K or less. Only available on DK tonight, Daz Cameron, Derek Hill, Willi Castro and Jeimer Candelario will face Cole Sands, a marginally regarded prospect (40+ FV grade Fangraphs), who will be making his first major league start and third appearance just a month or so shy of his 25th birthday. With a development track that’s been disturbed by various injuries, he’s essentially a two pitch pitcher (sweeping curveball, high heat at average velocity), who projects as a multi-inning reliever in the long run.

Batters From Either Side of the Plate Above a .370 wOBA Against This Pitcher

Great weather and some hitter friendly environments on a large slate gets five teams to the five implied run mark and another five to four and a half. Weather certainly plays a part in pushing the Mets to the top of the board (5.55) at home, though Patrick Corbin’s .380+ wOBA and xwOBA against LHP since last season has some say in that as well. While Coors is on the board, we have to get down to the fourth spot before we find either of those teams (Rockies 5.2 team run total). There are a couple of interesting notes and both have to do with weather. Conditions are expected to be so hitter friendly at Wrigley tonight that it may pass Coors in terms of the top run environment on the board. Coors also takes a slight hit in Statcast’s newest three year rolling park factors, which includes 2022 data now. Colorado is also the highest risk spot on the board in terms of rain. In fact, Kevin’s early forecast was leaning PPD in this one, though that could change.

Ironically, Pete Alonso (139 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the only NYM batter who finds his way into the top 10 overall projected bats by PlateIQ today, while the Rockies are one of two teams to feature multiple batters on that list on both sites with Connor Joe (99 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP since LY) and C.J. Cron (127 wRC+, .242 ISO) against Edward Cabrera, a top pitching prospect for the Marlins, who is making his season debut, but struggled greatly over seven starts and 26.1 innings last season (7.5 K-BB%, 11.6% Barrels/BBE). Batters from either side of the plate exceeded a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

The dominant lineup here is the Dodgers though, placing three batters inside the top 10 overall raw projected point totals. Again, it’s the top of the order in Mookie Betts (148 wRC+, .255 ISO), Freddie Freeman (147 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Trea Turner (126 wRC+, .176 ISO), who all hit RHP so well and are projected among the top six batters on either site against Mitch Keller. His underlying numbers aren’t nearly as poor as his 6.05 ERA this season, but it’s hard to argue that he’s actually been good (9.7 K-BB%). Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .370 wOBA against Keller since last year. The Dodgers are second on the board with a 5.43 run team total. No other offense features multiple top 10 projected bats tonight.

The One Spot Where High Upside Pitching Meets High Upside Matchup

Tonight’s top projected pitcher is also a top three projected point per dollar value on either site and that’s because Cristian Javier may be a bit under-priced on FanDuel ($8.7K) for a matchup in Oakland (75 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 7.8 HR/FB vs RHP). While $900 more on DraftKings, that may still be a bargain, according to PlateIQ projections, which are fluid and subject to change. Oakland is a park upgrade and Javier has lost nothing in transition from the bullpen to rotation this year. In fact, he’s struck out 18 of his last 42 batters to drive his strikeout rate up to 33.1%. He is generating just 27.5% of his contact on the ground and allowing 9.6% Barrels/BBE, but even that generates just a 2.90 xERA. A 3.31 xFIP is his only estimator above three. Oakland is also where barrels go to die.

Ryan Yarbrough is actually the top projected point per dollar value on FanDuel currently for just $6.4K. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats (18.7 K%), but generally has elite control and is one of the best contact managers in the league. While he’s not doing so much the former (8.8 BB%), the latter is certainly up to his stellar standards (84.4 mph EV, 3.2% Barrels/BBE). His xERA (3.41) is usually less than his other estimators and while pitcher exit velocities generally aren’t always considered predictive, he’s been excelling in that category for long enough that there’s probably something to it. While Texas is a bit of a park downgrade, it still plays slightly run negative with the roof closed, while the Rangers have actually excelled vs LHP this season (111 wRC+, 20.3 K%).

Blake Snell is another pitcher projections may be too cheap on FanDuel ($7K), but this is a highly volatile arm in a dangerous spot. The Padres never know which version of Snell they’re going to get on any given night, but it’s a good bet it won’t include a ton of balls in play. He’s faced 38 batters this year with 12 strikeouts, five walks and two home runs with another two barrels (19%) that stayed in the yard. Much like last year, he producing a strikeout rate above 30% with a double digit walk rate, which rarely lets him get deep into games. Even 104 pitches last time out didn’t get him through six innings. St Louis is usually a firmly negative run environment and power suppressive, though all bets seem to be off when it warms up and with 86 degrees and 10 mph winds out to LF in the forecast, a St Louis offense with a 137 wRC+ and 17.9 K% vs LHP becomes that much more dangerous. Still, you’re getting a 30+ K% for $7K.

George Kirby projects very strongly from a point per dollar perspective on DraftKings ($6.6K). Top pitching prospect for Seattle did allow four runs to the A’s over just five innings last time out, but also struck out a career high nine of 23 batters faced after struggling in starts in Boston and New York (NL). Overall, he has a 21.1 K-BB% through four starts with just two walks. While his 10.6 SwStr% is average, a 79.5 Z-Contact% is more impressive. On the negative end, 47.6% of his contact has been at least 95 mph off the bat. All estimators are more than one-third of a run below his 4.50 ERA and Baltimore is now a pitcher friendly environment, while the O’s have a 95 wRC+ and 22.1 K% vs RHP.

Jordan Montgomery projects as a strong value on either site for $8K or less. While he isn’t the type of pitcher you’d consider a workhorse (he’s completed six innings just three times in nine starts without recording a seventh inning out all season), it’s still a bit of a shock that he’s failed to strike out more than five in any of his starts, despite a 13.5 SwStr%. A 4.3 BB% and 5.0% Barrels/BBE have still kept all estimators below four, but you have to believe the strikeouts have increase at some point. Perhaps the Angels help him get there (23.2 K% vs LHP), but the offense is dangerous (113 wRC+, 14.4 HR/FB vs LHP). On the other side, the premium velocity may be gone for good, but Noah Syndergaard still throws harder than the average starter and 40% of his runs have come in just one start. The only negative in his profile is a 17.3 K%, but Thor has an 11.8 SwStr% to go with a 5.1 BB%, 50.4 GB% and 87.1 mph EV. He’s also struck out 13 of his last 60 (21.7%) and doesn’t have a single estimator more than a run above his 3.08 ERA. The Yankees have a 109 wRC+ and 21.5 K% vs RHP, but this is a banged up offense that has just a 74 wRC+ and 19.2 K-BB% over the last week. Syndergaard is an affordable $7.5K on DraftKings.

Tough Matchups Could Weight Down Some High Priced Pitchers

With DraftKings offering the second game of the double header in Detroit, it’s a 13 game Tuesday night slate, but just 12 on FanDuel. Lucas Giolito is the only pitcher to reach $10K on both sites, costing exactly that much on FanDuel and $200 more DraftKings. He tops the slate with a 33.3 K% and at least seven in five of his last six starts. His rates of walks (9.8%) and barrels (10.3%) are a bit high, but even that just pushes his xERA up to 3.84, although all estimators are at least one-quarter of a run above his 2.63 ERA (93.4 LOB%). Giolito loves his changeup and why not with a 45.5 Whiff%, but throwing it fairly often against RHBs too has given him somewhat of a reverse split (RHBs .307 wOBA since last year, LHBs .278) that could work against him a bit here. The Blue Jays line up predominantly from the right-hand side, though they have been just average against RHP (97 wRC+, 22.1 K%). Gioilto is currently just the fourth best projected pitcher on the board tonight by PlateIQ, due to some cheaper pitchers in very high upside spots. It seems that matchups do make the pitcher tonight, at least in terms of projections. To read more on how top of the board pitchers project in some difficult matchups, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Cody Bellinger (leg) scratched Monday

Cody Bellinger (leg) scratched Monday

The Offense Expected to Smash & Go Under-Owned

One a six game slate, you’re going to get a lot of stacks with double digit ownership on either site, especially with five teams separated by more than half a run from the rest of the board, all above 4.9 implied runs. While five stacks are currently projected for double digit ownership on FanDuel, bats at Wrigley are simply too cheap for the forecasted weather on DraftKings. Both the Brewers and Cubs are projected to be stacked in more than 20% of lineups with the Red Sox (13.28%) the only other team projected to be stacked in more than 10% of lineups (although these projections are fluid and subject to change). Ironically, it’s the Dodgers and not either team at Wrigley that smashes the slate most often in simulations. Only odd, on this day, because weather factors might make Dodger Stadium the most negative or at least most neutral park on the slate. As mentioned previously, Wrigley bats are just too cheap. Brewers top the FanDuel Value% projections by a large margin, while both teams are just a bit ahead of the Nationals on DraftKings.

You may have already guessed what this means for Leverage Ratings tonight. The Dodgers are the top rated stack and the only offense on either site that exceeds a 5.0 Rating. (Milwaukee has a substantially negative Rating on DraftKings currently.) It’s not often that the Dodgers are projected to smash the slate so often, yet also go under-owned, but that’s the state the weather forecast has us in tonight. When projections are suggesting it’s a great idea to stack Dodgers and not too many other people are probably going to do so, it’s probably best not to argue. While Zach Thompson has a 41 point split by wOBA and 17 by xwOBA since last season, the Dodgers RHBs are so good against RHP that it hardly matters. Mookie Betts (145 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Freddie Freeman (146 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Trea Turner (122 wRC+, .161 ISO) are all top projected bats tonight and Will Smith (138 wRC+, .237 ISO) is not too bad either.

These Offenses Are Too Cheap For The Weather

It’s not a surprise that the same offense that dominates the top of the PlateIQ projections overall, dominates the point per dollar projections on both sites as well. Often, sites can account for park and pitching matchup, although they don’t always do. However, they really can’t account for weather when pricing players and bats at Wrigley are just too cheap with great hitting weather tonight. Five of the top seven projected point per dollar bats on DraftKings are Brewers tonight, led by Andrew McCutchen (156 wRC+, .310 ISO vs LHP since LY) against Drew Smyly (batters from either side above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA since 2021) for just $3.3K. Tyrone Taylor (105 wRC+, .168 ISO), Lorenzo Cain (43 wRC+), Keston Hiura (11 wRC+) and Mike Brosseau (116 wRC+, .194 ISO) are all even cheaper. The same group, minus Cain, also make up four of the top seven projected values on FanDuel as well.

We also find two Cubs among the top 10 projected values on FanDuel. In four starts, Aaron Ashby has struck out just 18 of 88 batters with 16 walks, though including his work from the pen, batters from the right side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Clint Frazier (75 wRC+ vs LHP since LY) and Christopher Morel (151 wRC+ overall in majors) are too cheap with the latter projected to bat leadoff at the minimum ($2K).

The New York Mets also place two batters among the top 10 projected values on FanDuel tonight and they are one of four offenses above five implied runs tonight against Erick Fedde (LHBs within two points of a .340 wOBA and xwOBA since last season). Luis Guillorme (134 wRC+) is projected to bat leadoff for just $2K and is actually the top projected point per dollar value on FanDuel by PlateIQ. Eduardo Escobar (95 wRC+, .181 ISO) costs less than $2.5K as well.

Small Slate Also Expected to Be One of Most Hitter Friendly of Season

It might be a bit odd to find five times above 4.9 implied runs on just a six game slate on Monday night, but weather is expected to play a large part around the league tonight. Even a normally substantially negative run environment like Citi Field could be a favorable spot for hitters tonight. Fenway and Wrigley are also forecasted to have very hitter friendly conditions, while Texas and Arizona could be hitter friendly environments with the roof open. We already know it will be in Arizona. Dodger Stadium may be the most negative run environment on the slate merely by playing neutrally. Then you factor in some quality offenses facing sub-standard pitching in those parks and we have one of the most hitter friendly slates of the year so far.

PlateIQ projections are really favoring the weather at Wrigley so far. Half of the top 10 projected bats in terms of overall point totals come from this game. After five straight starts with four strikeouts, Drew Smyly has struck out exactly five in two straight. Relying more on cutters (29.4%) and sinkers (26.5%) this year, a 48.4 GB% is a career high by five full points, sacrificing strikeouts (18.2%), but with the lowest walk rate of his career as well (5.3%). The ends result is a league average pitcher with a 4.08 ERA and all non-FIP estimators within one-quarter of a run. Regardless, batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Smyly since last season and Kevin’s forecast has the wind blowing out to left 20+ mph tonight. Andrew McCutchen (156 wRC+, .310 ISO) has mauled LHP since last season, while Luis Urias (112 wRC+, .204 ISO) and Mike Brosseau (116 wRC+, .194 ISO) have done some damage as well.

On the other side of this matchup, not only does Aaron Ashby have bat missing ability (11.8 SwStr%), but his 21.1 CStr% is second best on the board. However, he’s struck out 18 of 88 in a starting role, which is a far lower rate than 21 of 60 out of the pen. He’s also walked 16 of his 20 batters as a starter as well. The good news is that he’s had a ground ball rate of at least 70% in three of his four starts with a low of 53.3% and has allowed just three barrels all season (3.4%), just two as a starter. The Cubs are projected to bat entirely right-handed in game two and batters from that side are below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA against Ashby since last season. Again though, weather trumps all at Wrigley tonight. Willson Contreras (141 wRC+, .261 ISO), Patrick Wisdom (128 wRC+, .303 ISO) and Frank Schwindel (150 wRC+, .288 ISO) are all very dangerous bats in this spot.

The Red Sox (5.66) and Dodgers (5.76) top the board, along with the Brewers (5.66) as the only three teams above five and a half implied runs and those are the only other two teams with multiple batters appearing among the top 10 projections tonight. Tyler Wells seems to be a low upside pitcher (16.1 K%), who the Orioles have on a strict leash. He hasn’t hit the 80 pitch mark yet this season. However, immaculate control (3.9 BB%) and strong contact profile (19.6 IFFB%, 87.4 mph EV) have allowed him to get through five innings in four of his last six starts. RHBs have a .305 wOBA, but .333 wOBA against him in his career with LHBs below .300, but projections expect Rafael Devers (163 wRC+, .329 ISO vs RHP since LY) and J.D. Martinez (149 wRC+, .241 ISO) to tee off on him tonight.

Zach Thompson has struck out just eight of his last 56 batters with a sub-8.0 SwStr% in each of those three starts. There may be a reason he keeps getting moved to the pen. On a positive note, he’s recorded an average exit velocity above 90 mph in just two of his eight starts. While all estimators are more than half a run below his 5.50 ERA (59.6 LOB%), he doesn’t have one below four either. LHBs have a .330 wOBA and .324 xwOBA against him since last season with RHBs at .289 and .307, but projections favor the top three in the Dodger lineup anyway. Mookie Betts (145 wRC+, .249 ISO), Freddie Freeman (146 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Trea Turner (122 wRC+, .161 ISO) have all been so good it hardly matters.

Many Are Excited For This Pitcher's First Start

This is a tough pitching board on a short slate on Monday night. There’s every reason to be skeptical of the top priced guys, but they do have great matchups and generally project the best today. However, there are a few pitchers who sneak up top from a point per dollar projection standpoint (PlateIQ), who are quite a bit cheaper. David Peterson is actually the third best projected arm on the board (ahead of Drew Rasmussen). He has struck out 12 of his last 45 against the Giants and Braves, while generating a ground ball rate of at least 50% in four of his five outings this year, all of which have lasted at least 15 batters. A 13.0 K-BB% and 54.5 GB% are enough to generate estimators all below four, though also well more than one run above his 2.16 ERA (.219 BABIP, 81.9 LOB%). Peterson is within $300 of $8.5K on either site in a home matchup against the Nationals, who have just an 88 wRC+, but 17 K% vs LHP. The other problem is that while Citi Field is generally a negative run environment, that’s not going to be so much the case, according to Weather Edge tonight. Regardless, Peterson is projected as a top three value on either slate currently (PlateIQ), though this is a fluid situation and can change throughout the day.

Spencer Strider is finally getting his first start and costs less than $7K. A day the projections have long been waiting for, especially on such a small slate, Strider has struck out 37 of 95 with a 16.8 SwStr%. That, in itself is enough to generate just a single estimator above three, but the 3.18 xERA does illustrate some issues in other aspects of his game, including an 11.6 BB%, 31.9 GB%, 91.1 mph EV and 10.6% Barrels/BBE. He has thrown as many as 71 pitches in an outing, but hasn’t recorded more than 46 in nearly a month. Workload is an issue in Arizona (98 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP), which is why he projects just a bit behind Peterson from a point per dollar perspective.

Glenn Otto is an even cheaper arm ($6.5K on DK), who projects as the top point per dollar value on DK. Aside from one bad outing, Glenn Otto hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his other five starts, though he’s completed just one Quality Start. This is not so much due to strict workload management, as he’s thrown more than 85 pitches in four straight starts, but walked 12 of his last 90 over that span. The concern here is a 7.9 K-BB%. From a contact perspective, he’s allowed eight barrels (9.4%), but also induced five popups (19.2 IFFB%). He doesn’t have a single estimator that runs at least half a run below his 4.91 ERA, but the matchup, while dangerous, is also high upside (Rays 104 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP). The environment will be much more favorable if the roof is closed in Texas tonight.

High Priced Arms in Favorable Matchups

Despite just a six game holiday slate on Monday night, we find three of the 12 starting pitchers exceeding $10K on either site tonight, though none do so on both and no other pitcher reaches $9K on either site tonight. Walker Buehler costs $10.3K on FanDuel tonight. He is both the most expensive pitcher and the top projected one on the board, though not so much do to his own performance. Buehler has struck out just 10 of his last 73 batters, driving his season strikeout rate below 20%. While he hasn’t had a single game swinging strike rate below 9.8% since his first start and his 12.3% season rate ties a career high, a 13.7 CStr% is a career low. Buehler is getting by on control (6.4%) and contact management (48.4 GB%, 86.7 mph EV, 4.3% Barrels/BBE). While he’s completed five innings in all of his starts, he’s recorded sixth inning outs just four times. You’d think the lack of strikeouts with an ERA below three would allow him to pitch even deeper into games, but not the case. All estimators are more than one-quarter of a run above his 2.91 ERA with a 3.95 SIERA being the worst. What’s appealing about Buehler tonight is the matchup (Pirates 77 wRC+, 26.2 K% on the road, 85 wRC+, 25.2 K% vs RHP) and the park. Considering weather factors, Dodger Stadium may be the most negative run environment on the slate. For over $1K less, Buehler is also the second best projected value on DraftKings.

Zac Gallen costs $10.1K on FD, but $700 less on DK. The six runs he allowed in his last start represents more than half his season total (11). While he’s also struck out just eight of his last 45 batters with seven walks, Gallen’s produced a 19.0 K-BB% on the season with just an 86.3 mph EV (6.0% Barrels/BBE) and only one estimator (3.66 xFIP) above three and a half. Atlanta leans predominantly right-handed and have scuffled both on the road (87 wRC+, 26.2 K%) and vs RHP (92 wRC+, 26.8 K%). However, RHBs actually have a higher wOBA (.306) and xwOBA (.318) against Gallen than LHBs (.279, .269) since last season. The roof in Arizona is scheduled to be open tonight and while that often actually means a lower scoring environment, it’s certainly weather dependent. Gallen is the second best projected pitcher on the slate and top five projected value on either site.

The oddity here is Drew Rasmussen costing $10.1K on DraftKings. While he’s struck out seven in each of his last two starts, he’s only exceed five strikeouts in one additional start. He does have a 49.6 GB%, which has helped keep his barrels to just 6.6% of contact with only three of the eight leaving the yard. Rasmussen has exceeded five innings just once this season, but a 17.9 K-BB% generates estimators all below three and a half, If also all above his 2.68 ERA, which should continue to benefit from a great defense (5 Runs Prevented). The Rangers have just an 86 wRC and 23.5 K% vs RHP and the park isn’t a bad place to pitch in if the roof is closed (all bets are off if it’s open), but the workload makes the cost difficult to bare on most slates, even with a $1.2K lower cost on FanDuel, you’re unlikely to receive a Quality Start. However, Rasmussen is the fourth best projected pitcher on a six game slate, though PlateIQ projections are subject to change.

Kyle Lewis scratched Sunday

Kyle Lewis scratched Sunday

Daulton Varsho scratched Saturday

Daulton Varsho scratched Saturday

Guardians-Tigers postponed Friday due to rain

Game update: Guardians-Tigers postponed Friday due to rain

Rockies-Nationals postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Game update: Rockies-Nationals postponed Friday due to inclement weather