DFS Alerts

Tarik Skubal (weather) scratched Tuesday; Wily Peralta will start in his place

Tarik Skubal (weather) scratched Tuesday; Wily Peralta will start in his place

RHBs Have a Nearly .500 wOBA Against This Pitcher

Early projections suggest the Chicago Cubs are the only stack that might reach double digit ownership on a 12 game slate, doing so DraftKings without any stack projected to be that popular on FanDuel. Baltimore is more of a pitchers’ park now and the Cubs carry a modest 4.25 implied run line, but good pitching is expensive and Chicago bats are cheap, while RHBs have a .498 wOBA and .447 xwOBA against Kyle Bradish this year. That includes seven home runs in just 79 RHBs faced. Imagine if they hadn’t pushed the left field wall back and up. The Altanta Braves own the top team total on the slate (5.59 runs) and they smash the slate most often in simulations, but only a bit more than eight percent. Where we start to see some separation from the rest of the board is in the Value% column where both the A’s (DraftKings) and Tigers (FanDuel) project for more than 50% more value than any other stack on those particular sites. We’re also talking about two of the worst offenses in the league though and stacking projections are very much fluid and often updated throughout the day. Which stack projects for the best rating on a slate without any overwhelming favorites? Read today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Tons of Value in One of the Top Offenses on the Board

Good pitching is expensive tonight and so is good hitting. There’s plenty of reasons players will want to seek out value bats on this slate and the great news is that both sites believe you can find several of them in one of the top offenses tonight. The Blue Jays are second on the board with a team total of 5.23 runs and PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) believe you’ll find plenty of value in Toronto stacks tonight. In fact, Cavan Biggio (158 wRC+ last 30 days) and Raimel Tapia (94 wRC+ last 30 days) are top three projected point per dollar values on either site for less than $5K against Brad Keller, who has walked at least three in four of his last six starts with a strikeout high of four over that span (1.9 K-BB%), which he accomplished just once. Exactly half his contact has been on the ground this season, which helps him keep the barrels down (5.5%), generating a 3.91 xERA that’s the only estimator below his 4.15 ERA. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against him since last year, though RHBs have handled him pretty well too (.330 wOBA, .367 xwOBA), which is really bad news against this predominantly right-handed lineup. There are no less than five top 10 projected values in this Toronto lineup on FanDuel, all below $3K. Bradley Zimmer (141 wRC+ last 30 days) is the only other top 10 value on both sites, while Alejandro Kirk (196 wRC+ last 30 days) and Teoscar Hernandez (106 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP since 2021) are much more expensive on DraftKings.

Several Paris of Teammates Dominate Hitter Projections on Tuesday

A 12 game slate that doesn’t really include any of the extremely positive run environments or extremely hitter friendly weather features just two teams above five implied runs (Braves 5.59, Blue Jays 5.23) and then just three more above four and a half (Astros 4.96, Giants 4.92, Yankees 4.63). Aaron Judge (166 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the top projected bat on the board on either site where we may find the most power friendly weather conditions in Minnesota. Cole Sands both walked and struck out four of 21 Tigers in a spot start last week and looks to be getting another here. Sands is only a marginally regarded prospect (40+ FV Fangraphs), but has had a K-BB exceeding 18% at every stop along his way to the majors. Giancarlo Stanton (136 wRC+, .248 ISO) is also a top 10 projected bat on FanDuel and just outside the top 10 on DraftKings.

The Braves and Red Sox (4.41) both place a pair of batters inside the top 10 on both sites. Cole Irvin has struck out exactly four in six of eight starts and just two in each of his other two. Even with good control (5.8 BB%), he has just a 9.0 K-BB% with all estimators above four. An 82 LOB% and the fact that just five of 17 barrels (11.4%) have the yard are doing much of the work on a 2.96 ERA. RHBs have a .318 wOBA and .338 xwOBA against him since last year. Projections like Ronald Acuna Jr. (169 wRC+, .302 ISO) and Austin Riley (135 wRC+, .228 ISO) to do the most damage.

Nine innings of BABIP magic, otherwise known as Reid Detmers’ two strikeout no-hitter have otherwise skewed his season numbers, especially from a workload standpoint, as he’s only faced more than 20 batters or gone behind five innings just one other time. Not to mention the .194 BABIP that keeps his 4.20 ERA below all estimators with just a 9.5 K-BB%, though it nearly matches his 4.21 xERA. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him in his career. Rafael Devers (117 wRC+, .148 ISO) and Trevor Story (144 wRC+, .324 ISO) are top projected Boston bats.

A pair of Phillies (4.25) find themselves among the top projected FanDuel bats. While Jason Alexander did complete seven innings in his major league debut, don’t expect the Summer of George to last long, as the 29 year-old struck out just three Cubs with as many walks, although 76.2% of his contact was on the ground with an 84.2 mph EV. Projections believe Bryce Harper (187 wRC+, .365 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (146 wRC+, .340 ISO) should be able to handle him.

Lastly, we find a pair of Astros among the top 10 projected on DraftKings. Chris Flexen can occasionally pop a few strikeouts and pitch deep into games, but actually only has one Quality Start over his last six and can’t be counted on for much of a floor with just a 16.7 K% and 11.1% Barrels/BBE. He’s allowed multiple barrels in all but three starts this year and does not have an estimator below his 4.55 ERA. Flexen has a large reverse split (RHBs .346 wOBA since last year) with LHBs 60 points lower, but just above .300 by xwOBA (.304). Every batter in the Houston projected lineup exceeds a 110 wRC+ vs RHP since last season. PlateIQ projections like Jose Altuve (141 wRC+, .223 ISO) and Yordan Alvarez (159 wRC+, .296 ISO) the most.

Pricing Hasn't Caught Up To How Good This Pitcher Has Been

Tuesday night’s pitching board has a little bit of everything. Ace matchups in good and bad spots, but also some lower priced value with some upside. Although it’s a tough matchup against the Cardinals (board high 125 wRC+, board low 18.1 K% vs LHP), Jeffrey Springs still pitches in a negative run environment and pricing hasn’t caught up to the performance yet. A fully stretched out Springs has now struck out 20 of 64 batters over his last three starts. Not only does he maintain proud ownership of a 22.4 K-BB%, but his 15.5 SwStr% and 78 Z-Contact% are both best on the board and even when contact is made, it’s generally pretty weak (85.9 mph EV). He doesn’t have a single estimator that reaches three and a half, despite a 12.8 HR/FB with five of seven barrels (7.4%) leaving the yard. He’s the top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings for just $6.3K, though $2.4K more expensive on FanDuel.

The second best projected value on DraftKings ($6.9K) and top one on FanDuel ($7.0K) is Garrett Whitlock. What we like here is that even though it’s a positive run environment, Anaheim is a park upgrade from Fenway, while the home team (110 wRC+, but 24.9 K% vs RHP) has been slumping terribly (40 wRC+, 23.6 K%, 1.7 HR/FB last seven days). However, Whitlock has been struggling himself, failing to strike out any of the 20 Reds he faced last time out, but at least he didn’t walk any either. The strikeout rate is down to just 15% (8.8 SwStr%) over his last five with a 4.70 ERA closely matching estimators over this span. Season estimators still range tightly between a 3.31 DRA and 3.78 xERA, though the starting experiment may be coming to an end sooner rather than later. Tread carefully here.

Additional low priced arms, who project for solid value, mostly in a DK SP2 kind of way, included Kyle Bradish ($5.1K), German Marquez ($5.3K) and Mitch White ($6.1K). Bradish has shown strong skills with a 24.3 K% through seven starts, but has allowed a home run in each of them. Though eight of 11 barrels (11.6%) leaving the yard does seem a bit unfortunate, it’s tough to make excuses for a 92.3 mph EV and 45.3% 95+ mph EV. Contact neutral estimators separate themselves from inclusive runs with the former being below four and the latter above five, though all more than a run below his 6.82 ERA. The Cubs have a 23 K% vs RHP, but just a team 3.8 K-BB% over the last week.

While it’s true that Marquez has only started three games away from Coors this year, he’s allowed 16 runs (12 earned) over those starts, although all 11 home runs and 11 of 14 barrels have come at home. All 11 of his barrels leaving the park at home is a bit unlucky, there’s really not much good you can say about an 18.3 K% with 48.4% of his contact at a 95 mph EV or higher. At least 51.1% of it has been on the ground. Non-FIP estimators (20.8 HR/FB) are more than two runs below his 6.71 ERA, dropping as low as a 3.88 xFIP. Any park that’s not Coors is an upgrade, though the Giants have been really good against RHP (110 wRC+, 21.9 K%).

After striking out just four of 27 over his first two starts, Mitch White Struck out seven of 21 last time out, although competition (Pirates) and has to be taken into account and he’s walked five of 48 as a starter. Taking the entire season body of work into account, a 4.84 xERA is his only estimator not more than half a run below his 4.79 ERA, due to the 8.8% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed. The White Sox have just an 82 wRC+ but 19.2 K% vs RHP this year. On FanDuel, there’s little reason or incentive to drop below top of the board arms.

Don't Worry About This Pitcher's Declining Strikeouts

A 12 game Tuesday night slate offers three pitchers reaching the $10K mark on both sites and two more on just one site, but no more than $200 below $10K on the other. Alek Manoah is the most expensive pitcher on the board, as he hits $11K on FanDuel, but is exactly $1K less on DraftKings. He also carries the lowest PlateIQ projection of the five currently (though projections are fluid and subject to change). With more than five strikeouts in just one of his last five starts, Manoah has just a 19.2 K% over the last month, but an 11.5 SwStr% suggests there’s not much reason for concern. A 23 K% on the season gives him a strong 19 K-BB%, while adding an exceptional contact profile (86.8 mph EV, 2.8% Barrels/BBE, 26.6% 95+ mph EV). He’s averaging a single barrel every other start, which is probably unsustainable, but still impressive enough to be mentioned. The only time he’s failed to produce a Quality Start this season is the one start he only lasted five innings. Aside from a 2.52 xERA that considers the contact profile, additional estimators are all above three, but well below four. The Royals have a 79 wRC+ and 6.3 HR/FB at home. Against RHP, they own a 90 wRC+ and 21.3 K%. It’s not as high upside as you’d like, but there’s probably a very high floor here. If he’s likely to have the lowest ownership numbers, Manoah could be a strong pivot from some better projected arms. For more on a couple of top arms in great matchups and also a couple in tougher ones, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Rangers-Guardians postponed Monday due to inclement weather

Game Update: Rangers-Guardians postponed Monday due to inclement weather

This Stack Smashes and Projects for Great Value

With the Blue Jays separating themselves from the rest of the board by more than half a run with a team total of 5.34 runs, they are projected to be the most popular stack on the board and the gap could get wider if the game in Cincinnati is rained out, as expected, because the Diamondbacks are projected to be the second most popular stack tonight. With a mix of value bats and top bats, the Angels are the only stack projecting for more than 10% ownership on either site, although PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change. No offense smashes the slate nearly as often as the Blue Jays in current simulations. In fact, they do so in more than 20% of them, which is more than 50% more than any other offense. Diamondbacks project as the top value stack a bit higher than Blue Jays and Angels on FanDuel, while the three are essentially tied for top value on DraftKings. We know that the Blue Jays smash the stack and have value according to the projections, but is that enough to make them the best rated stack? See Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog for the answer.

Cheap Leadoff Bat Ahead of Top Bats Projects for Top Value on the Board

The need for value bats tonight probably depends more on your offensive selections than pitching, although a need for a few could arise should you exceed desire to reach for Robbie Ray at $9.5K. Should you need a cheaper secondary stack though, the Angels are strongly suggested by PlateIQ with several of them projecting as top point per dollar values against Michael Wacha (batters from either side above a .345 wOBA and xwOBA since last year). Shohei Ohtani (147 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Mike Trout (177 wRC+, .333 ISO). Projections suggest a compliment of Matt Duffy (108 wRC+) and Jo Adell (93 wRC+, .158 ISO) on either site for $2.5K or less and also Max Stassi (127 wRC+, .204 ISO) on FanDuel at the same cost. Duffy, projected to bat leadoff tonight, is the top projected value on DraftKings.

FanDuel projections also suggest that Daulton Varsho (105 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Geraldo Perdomo (86 wRC+) are great values against Hunter Greene (LHBs .325 wOBA), but beware the weather in this one, as Kevin is actually expecting an early PPD. DraftKings projections like a couple of Texas bats in Cleveland, but weather is also a concern there, though a bit less so. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA below .300, but an xwOBA of at least .310 against Cal Quantrill since last year. Kole Calhoun (110 wRC+, .180 ISO) costs less than $3K on DK, while Steele Walker costs the minimum and starts off with 10 fantasy points just for that name alone.

Top Projected Bat Tonight Despite Recent Slump

The Toronto Blue Jays beat the rest of the board by a decent margin with a 5.34 implied run line and no other offense above a 4.75 run team total on a six game slate. They travel to a power suppressive, but fairly run neutral park in Kansas City to face a struggling young southpaw, whom RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .365 against since his callup last season. As expected, the Toronto projected lineup dominates PlateIQ projections tonight. Even on a small slate, the Angels are the only other offense to place multiple batters inside the top 10 raw projected hitter point totals and that’s more because Shohei Ohtani (147 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Mike Trout (177 wRC+, .333 ISO) are almost always top projected bats against marginal pitching, despite the latter’s stunning slump. Trout still has a 132 wRC+ over the last 30 days and is the top projected bat on the board. The magician known as Michael Wacha has allowed more than two runs in just one of his eight starts, registering the lowest ERA of his career (2.43), despite the lowest K-BB of his career as well (8.1%). We can give him some credit for managing contact well (5.8% Barrels/BBE, 32.5% 95+ mph EV, 15.9 IFFB%), which is not something he’s done in recent seasons and it makes you wonder how sustainable it is. However, he’s throwing a different mix of stuff (same stuff, just different usage rates), but even then, this house of cards is built upon a .198 BABIP and 81.9 LOB%. A 3.83 xERA is his only estimator below four. Batters from either side of the plate have an xwOBA above .345 against him since last year.

Four Blue Jays are projected as top 10 bats tonight. Daniel Lynch’s 12.5 SwStr% probably deserves better than a 19.6 K%, but he also owns a board low 12.5 CStr%. He has only completed six innings once, back in his second start, but does have three outings of five shutout innings or more, so it’s been a lot of feast or famine. Issues about all over a profile with just a 9.5 K-BB%, 90.7 mph EV and 37 GB% and, unfortunately, a 5.54 DRA is the only estimator more than half a run removed from his 4.81 ERA, a problem that he may best begin to resolve if a few more of those swings and misses start resulting in strike three. However, as mentioned, RHBs have smashed him and the Blue Jays bat almost entirely from that side. George Springer (169 wRC+, .280 ISO vs LHP since LY), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (147 wRC+, .229 ISO), Bo Bichette (149 wRC+, .207 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (189 wRC+, .340 ISO) are all top projected bats in a projected lineup that includes six batters above a 140 wRC+ against southpaws since last season.

Starting Pitching Pickings are Slim and Maybe Getting Slimmer for Monday

A six game Monday night slate that’s scheduled to start a bit earlier could quickly become a five or possibly even four game one starting a bit later, according to Kevin’s early forecast. Regardless, not a single pitcher reaches the $10K price point on either site, though two reach $9K on both sites with an additional one just on DraftKings. With a 35.8 K% over his last start, Robbie Ray is now up to an 18.3 K-BB% on the season, but has still allowed at least three runs in six of his last seven starts because seven of his nine barrels (9.2%) have left the park over that span (17.1 HR/FB), despite pitching in some pitcher friendly parks outside of Seattle (Baltimore, New York NL, Miami). A 15.1 HR/FB and maybe even a 70 LOB% suggest he could run a bit better with a barrel rate in single digits. Season estimators range from a 3.57 SIERA to a 4.30 DRA, all more than half a run below his 4.93 ERA. The most expensive pitcher on the slate, Ray projects as the second best pitcher on it, though no pitcher projects particularly well tonight and we certainly can’t call it an enviable spot in Houston. Though it’s a surprise to find the Astros with just a 98 wRC+ vs LHP this season, an 18.3 K% and 10.1 BB% makes more sense. They should test Ray.

Opposing Ray, Cristian Javier is the only other pitcher to reach $9K on both sites and does barely on either. He has struck out 31.5% of batters with a 12.9 SwStr% (2.44 K/SwStr), but also a 12.6 CStr% that’s second lowest on the board, so you have to wonder how sustainable this is, even if his strikeout rate has risen since being inserted into the rotation. He’s also walked nine of his last 84 with just a 26.1 GB% on the season. Lots of popups? No, just a 5.9 IFFB% with an 89.5 mph EV and 8.4% Barrels/BBE. The closest estimator to his 2.41 ERA is a 2.88 FIP (5.9 HR/FB with just three of eight barrels leaving the yard). With an 84.1 LOB% too, you have to wonder what might happen should his strikeout rate regress below 30%. He may need to sustain an elite strikeout rate to remain successful. The Mariners have a 114 wRC+ vs RHP that’s the highest split on the board today, while striking out just 21.9% of the time against them. Javier projects slightly behind Ray as tonight’s third best arm via PlateIQ, though these projections are fluid. The best thing we can say about these two matchups are that they’re weather protected.

Carlos Carrasco costs $9.3K on DraftKings, but $800 less on FanDuel. He walked a season high five Nationals last time out, which seems an aberration, considering he’d only walked eight in his nine previous starts this year. What’s more in question is a 21.4 K% with an impressive 12.9 SwStr% that almost perfectly matches his career rate (12.8%) over which he’s struck out a quarter of the batters he’s faced (25.2%). He’s also managing contact better than he has in years (87.9 mph EV, 5.3% Barrels/BBE). However, aside from a stretch where he recorded at least two seventh inning outs in three of four starts, hasn’t completed six innings in any other start this season. A 3.63 ERA is within a one-third of a run of all non-FIP estimators (just three of his nine barrels have left the yard), but as the home runs adjust upwards, the strikeouts should as well, leaving him essentially about where he is. Carrasco is a top five projected arm on either site, although weather could move him up a spot, in San Diego. The Padres have just an 86 wRC+ and 22.7 K% vs RHP. He may be a bit undervalued in this spot.

The top projected pitcher on the board is also currently the top projected value on either site because Blake Snell costs $8.1K or less against the Mets. Through three starts, he has shown the Padres many of the same qualities has had last season, which includes lots of strikeouts (30%), walks (13.3%) and barrels (14.7%). While the average exit velocity is down nearly a full mile per hour (88.5), his ground ball rate is also down 10 points (29.4%). While it’s only been a sample of three starts, it looks a lot like last year and not enough like the pitcher they thought they were getting from Tampa Bay. With all those walks and elevated contact, he’s stranded just 60.6% of runners with a .188 BABIP. Estimators are all more than half a run below his 4.80 ERA, though only a 3.33 xERA (four popups to go with those five barrels) is much below four. It’s hard to tell which version of Snell you’re going to get in any given start, which does sometimes make him a great GPP play at an affordable price, though that would seem less likely to be true against an offense as well-disciplined as the Mets (104 wRC+, 20.9 K%, 8.8 BB% vs LHP). On a more standard slate, there would probably be several pitchers ahead of Snell, but we have to play the pitchers we’re dealt. Unfortunately, due to weather concerns in Cincinnati and maybe Cleveland as well, we’re probably not comfortable dropping down for any lower priced arms tonight, as none outside of Hunter Greene or Jon Gray project as decent values.

The start of Astros-Royals will be delayed Saturday due to weather

Game update: The start of Astros-Royals will be delayed Saturday due to weather

Alex Cobb (back) scratched Friday

Alex Cobb (back) scratched Friday

Projections Suggest This Stack is Going to be Impossible to Ignore

Being nearly a run removed from the rest of the 24 team slate at Coors, the Braves are easily expected to be the most popular stack on either site tonight and the only one with a double digit ownership projection. In fact, they’re expected to be at least twice as popular as any other DraftKings stack currently, although projections are fluid and subject to change. The Braves are also smash the slate in simulations more than twice as often as any other stack and are the only offense to reach a double digit Smash% on either site. No team reaches a double digit Value% on DraftKings, but guess what? The Braves perform so well in simulations that they also project as the top value stack (9.58%), while the Blue Jays actually reach a 10.22 Value% on FanDuel with the Braves outside the top five in that department there. The key question on this slate is if the Braves smash the slate often enough in conjunction with the ownership projected for them that they remain a good stacking choice. For the answer to that question, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Several Ways to Efficiently Supplement Your Coors Stack

You want a top pitcher with an Atlanta stack at Coors in your lineup tonight. Well, you’re going to have to save somewhere and here’s how PlateIQ projections suggest you do so. On FanDuel, the other half of your Coors lineup should be filled with Rays. Four of the top eight projected point per dollar values on FD are playing for the home team in Tampa Bay. Brett Phillips (128 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Kevin Kiermaier (100 wRC+, .167 ISO), Mike Zunino (68 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Ji-Man Choi (140 wRC+. 216 ISO) all cost less than $3K against the volatile as ever Vince Velasquez, whose strikeout rate on the season is just 21%, though an 8.9 BB% is actually better than his career rate. He’s still getting barreled up fairly regularly though (13.8%), driving a 6.25 xERA that’s his only estimator above a 5.30 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA between .360 and .365 against him since last season.

FanDuel projections also suggest you can pair a couple of cheap Yankees with Aaron Judge, the second best projected hitter on the board, against Elvin Rodriguez, who has struck out 10 of 48 batters with just a 7.5 SwStr% and 10.4 BB%. The marginally regarded 24 year-old (40 FV Fangraphs) projects as a spot starter or rotation depth type. Tonight, he projects as Judge’s dinner. Joey Gallo (122 wRC+, .250 ISO) is the top projected value on FanDuel. Both he and Matt Carpenter (199 wRC+ since being called up) cost $2.5K or less.

DraftKings believes there are two ways of supplementing your lineup with value bats. One is in the Atlanta lineup itself, by adding Adam Duvall (98 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP since LY) and Michael Harris II (95 wRC+ since being called up) to your stack for $2.5K or less. Of course, this means you’ll have to sacrifice one of the top 10 projected Altanta bats. Marcell Ozuna is projected the lowest of the four.

The other avenue is with a Cleveland stack in Baltimore. With exactly two strikeouts in three of his last four starts, Bruce Zimmermann is down to a 19.2 K% on the season, but with a strong 5.2 BB%, that may help mitigate the issues with a concerning contact profile (39.1 GB%, 91.2 mph EV, 13.8% Barrels/BBE). The Guardians may also miss closer Jorge Lopez, who threw 26 pitches last night. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Zimmermann since last year. A min-priced Oscar Gonzalez (144 wRC+ since being called up) is the top projected DK value. Ernie Clement (108 wRC+ last 30 days) and Oscar Mercaod (94 wRC+ vs LHP since LY) are not far behind for $2.3K or less.