DFS Alerts
Cash Game Hero
The final pick of the week projects to be one of the highest owned in this price range. Johnson is never a golfer that we really think of when it comes to the Open Championship until the week before. He always has a high finish at the John Deere Classic and he always plays well on the other side of the pond. He has made 11 straight cuts at the Open Championship, including a win in 2015 and two top tens in 2012 and 2013. Carnoustie should set up well for him, as he is accurate off the tee. He’s one of the few that can afford to hit a lot of drivers this week and if he does, he could end up being near the top of the field in driving distance since many will be using irons. Johnson is also one of the best scramblers on tour, which will play a big role at a course where you will be scrambling for par.
DFS Favorite is Underpriced AGAIN
Finau will be chalky this week. Given his form over the last year of play, you can argue that he’s a top 20 golfer in the world. He plays well at birdie fests and he has a surprisingly good track record at the majors. This season alone, he has a T10 at the Masters and a T5 at the U.S. Open. While he may not be able to hit as many drivers as he would like, he’s still very good with his irons and he’s ranked 14th in the field in bogey avoidance. He has only played in two Open Championships in his career, but he has two top 30 finishes under his belt. At his price point (at least on DraftKings), he will easily pay off his salary with another top 30 finish. The only thing that scares me a little is that he spent all last week in Utah, as his charity hosted the Web.com Tour event. When everyone else was warming up at the JDC or the Scotish Open, he had obligations. Perhaps that means some good karma is coming his way, but it could lead to a little rust.
Apologies in Advance America
Poulter is an easy guy to dislike, at least from an average American’s point of view. He’s been a thorn in our side for many years when it comes to the Ryder Cup and he’s not afraid to play it up. He’s one of those players that you love to have on your side, but hate to play against. This hatred has led to low ownership in DFS over the years and I’m not going to lie, I haven’t played him as often as I probably should have. I plan to make amends this week at the Open Championship. Poulter is another golfer that is at his best on difficult golf courses. He should benefit from the course being so firm and fast, since he’s not the longest off the tee. He posted a T14 at this event last season and has five straight top 30 finishes worldwide.
Thinking About Hitting the Lock Button
I absolutely LOVE Grace this week. He may end up being my highest owned golfer in my player pool and that includes both cash games and tournaments. He’s only $7,900 on DraftKings and as of Tuesday, we have his ownership projection right around 10%. That is criminally low given Grace’s record on links courses and his record on difficult courses. He’s not going to win an event where the winning score is 20-under par, that’s just not his game. He’s at his best on courses where par is a good score. Carnoustie should fit right into his skill set. He hits the ball low and is very good with his long irons. He also has a win at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. While the setup is different, Carnoustie is one of the three courses in rotation at that event every year. I basically have two rules when it comes to Grace — play him at the Opens and play him anytime he’s in a Euro Tour event.
Far Too Cheap on DraftKings
I had to do a double-take after running my PGA DFS model for the week. Stenson finished third overall, despite being the 18th most expensive on DraftKings. The only thing keeping Stenson from being 30%+ is an elbow injury that “forced” him to pull out of the Scotish Open a week ago. While Stenson does have a long track record of withdrawing from tournaments that aren’t going his way, he looks happy and confident in his interviews leading up to the Open Championship. I expect that he just needed a week off before competing in another major. He’s been on a tear over the last few months, he’s one of the best statistical fits for the course, and he loves links golf. His first major came at the Open Championship two years ago and I don’t want to jinx anything, but he has made the cut in each of the last nine editions of the Open.
Becoming a Little Chalky
Perhaps the reason why Casey is flying a bit under the radar is the fact that Noren’s buzz continues to grow and grow. There are a few personalities in the industry that tend to drive ownership and that tend to lower betting odds (which also drive ownership). Everyone seems to be on Noren this week, so I expect his ownership to be one of the highest in the field. He’s coming off of a win at the Open De France, which is his sixth in Europe in the last two seasons (nobody else has more than four). He’s a golfer that is solid in all aspects of his game, which makes him a great fit for Carnoustie (which he has played many times). Noren’s best golf hasn’t shown up in the states just yet, but that doesn’t matter. The Open Championship is in Scotland this week, so he will feel right at home with these conditions. He’s made the cut in his last two Opens, highlighted by a T6 at Royal Burkdale last season.
Consistency and Upside is a Lethal Combination
Casey isn’t getting as much buzz as he usually does during a major, which is a bit surprising given how well he has treated DFS players this year. He finally won again on the PGA Tour (Valspar Championship) again and then posted top 16 finishes at the Masters and the U.S. Open. He’s one of those golfers that rarely misses cuts, that shows up on the biggest stages, and whose game translates on any type of course. The only knock that I can find on Casey is that he hasn’t played since the Travelers Championship (nearly a full month ago) where he blew a big lead on Sunday and lost to Bubba Watson. I wouldn’t say Casey has the best Open Championship track record, but he has a couple of top tens and finished T11 last year at Royal Burkdale. If you like top 20 finishes at reasonable price points, Casey is your man.
Good Course Fit for the Big Cat
Not a week goes by where I don’t play Tiger when he’s in the field. It’s very unlike me to have such a strong bias towards an athlete in DFS, but here we are. At the very least, I recognize it. The good news is that Tiger can actually compete this week. If you’ve seen any pictures or videos of Carnoustie, the course is absolutely baked. Players in interviews have said that they are getting 80+ yards of roll out from their driver. Tiger said that he hit his three-iron 330 yards in a practice round. This is tremendous news for Woods, as he plans to keep his driver in the bag on nearly every hole. That’s been his one weakness this season. He’s ranked second in approach, tenth around the greens, and he’s arguably the best putter on fast greens to ever play the game. He’s also at his best in difficult conditions and he will certainly have to battle the elements with this course being located right next to the North Sea.
Long Hair Don't Care
Fleetwood is the sexy pick of the week and with those long, luscious locks, you can easily see why. He’s a fan favorite and as Geoff Feinberg (one of the industry’s favorite golf bettors) likes to say, “you either like Fleetwood, or you love him.” He went on a tear last year on the European Tour and has since played some of his best golf in front of the American viewing public. He has that crazy low round on Saturday at the Masters and then nearly pulled off one of the greatest Sunday comebacks ever at the U.S. Open. Ultimately, he finished one shot behind Brooks Koepka. Fleetwood loves links golf and he has played this course many times at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. In fact, he has played so well here that he owns the course record (63), although this week’s setup will be much more difficult. He’s one of the best ball strikers in the world and he’s great around the greens. He just needs his flat-stick to cooperate.
Rickie, Rickie, Rickie, Can't You See
Even though I don’t love Fowler from a betting odds perspective (he feels overpriced), he is my pick to win this week. It’s time that he finally breaks through and wins his first major. We love to put labels on golfers. Rickie is known as someone who can’t close at majors, but many other were known as that before they won their first (most recently, Sergio Garcia). Fowler has an affinity for links golf, as evidenced by his win at the Scotish Open two years ago. He’s one of the best scramblers on tour and there are few that I have more confidence in standing over a ten-foot par putt. Fowler is one of the few golfers in the world that actually relishes the bad conditions. He loves pulling out his rain pants and jacket and getting to work. Staying positive and confident are always crucial in links golf, especially under an Open Championship setup.
Steady Eddie Across the Pond
I wouldn’t call ZJ a big-game hunter but he is 11-for-14 at The Open Championship. This major really seems to fit his style of play. That should play out again this week as Carnoustie doesn’t demand distance. Johnson posted a T20 the last time it hosted (2007) which actually snapped his 0-for-3 record at The Open and kicked off an 11-for-11 run which is currently where he stands. The best part about his cuts made here is they don’t lack upside. He’s also posted seven top 20s over his last 11 starts at The Open. A solid start to a cash game team this week.
Redemption at The Open
He’s going through a coaching and caddie carousel this year as he tries every to get back to his old form. It’s not ideal to pick golfers that are searching for answers but an in-form Scott would mean a jump of at least $1K in his salary. Scott is already a major champion but this is one that has gotten away from him. The most obvious close call came in 2012 when he gagged it away to Ernie Els. Overall, he has five top 10s at The Open so we know he CAN contend here. Through all his struggles it’s only the flat stick that’s holding him back. This is quite the bargain for a golfer that is still one of the world’s best ball strikers. He should hit value with an average week but he’d absolutely smash value if he happens to find his putting stroke.
Knocking on the winner's door.
If you’re looking for that next breakout major winner, Finau is certainly building a nice resume. He is 7-for-9 in his major championship career with five of those being top 20s, including top 10s in each of his last two. In a way, this reminds me of Brooks Koepka before his big win at Erin Hills. Consistently performing on the toughest tracks, against the toughest fields. The best part of drafting Finau is his fantasy scoring prowess. He’s racked up 18 eagles over his last 24 starts. As long as he plays the weekend he will smash this salary.
Ready for the Summer Stretch.
Sneds missed the cut in his first three Open Championship starts but since then he is 4-for-5 with a trio of top 25s. That includes a T3 back in 2012. More recently, he finally snapped back into form with a T3 at the Greenbrier. After the big finish he had this to say, “it’s kind of been an uneventful season for me, and now I think I’m playing some of my better golf, my best golf of the year. Got a lot of huge events left. So I’m excited about the opportunity in front of me, and probably one of the few guys excited about this last long stretch of golf, and can’t wait to play a lot of golf and show that I’m playing good.” Adding to his excitement, Snedeker also boasts a long list of wins that you could correlate to Carnoustie. Nearly all of his wins have come at either coastal courses or courses where driver is not needed very often. Check. Check.
What Does the Fox Say?
Fox represents the epitome of how we can gain a potential edge in an event like this one. The casual DFS player will likely completely over-look this New Zealander that they don’t know a whole lot about. Even those who play PGA Tour DFS on the regular might not know much about Fox. Well, he has a very respectable links game and has been dialed in on the European Tour of late with finishes of sixth place and second place over the last two weeks. That was enough to earn him a ticket to Carnoustie, and he’s playing with house money at this point. Expect him to fire at some flags and look to keep the momentum rolling. He’s a fantastic punt play to round out your GPP rosters.
