DFS Alerts
Thomas Pieters flying under the radar ahead of this year’s Masters
Regarded as a very talented young player to keep an eye on, Thomas Pieters heads into this week in a very similar position to last year’s Masters. In five events prior to last year’s Masters Pieters showcased both his talent and downside. In addition to two top-five finishes, Pieters also missed two cuts. As a rookie in last year’s Masters, Pieters ended up having a 4.5 ownership share and finished in the 4th overall position in terms of DraftKings points. Early ownership projections for the first major of the season have Pieters once again trending towards a very low number. While Pieters has not exactly set the PGA Tour on fire this season, he does have the game to compete and play well this week. In order to take down a big GPP such as the Milly Maker, you will need to consider taking a risk on a potential low owned option that has a ton of upside. Many in the golf community hold Thomas Pieters in high regard, and this week offers us a chance to get exposure to a talented player at what could be a very low ownership.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership
Rafael Cabrera Bello a standout value on FanDuel
Major Championship weeks will often lead to softer pricing in order to stir up action for the DFS community as a whole. With the exception of Rafael Cabrera Bello price on FanDuel this week, the majority of pricing runs in line with this philosophy. There are a few golfers that you could make an argument for in terms of being a few hundred off in salary, but at $7,400 on FanDuel, Cabrera Bello is at least $2,000 cheaper than expected. Currently ranked in the 22nd position in the world, Cabrera Bello is priced only $400 over the minimum on FanDuel. This type of discrepancy makes it easy to put this very talented golfer in the number one overall position amongst our experts in the FanDuel third tier rankings this week. Even though he missed the cut at last week’s Houston Open Cabrera Bello is just too cheap to ignore at this price. Locking in Cabrera Bello in an event where so many golfers can potentially make the cut opens up $10,520 per player on FanDuel. In what appears to be an obvious pricing error you should just hit the free square button on Cabrera Bello in almost all formats for the first major of the year.
As reported by: FanDuel PGA Value Rankings This Golfer Has All I Need To See In This Price Range
A lot of people have been worried about his health since the mid-tourney WD earlier this season. There is nothing in his approach stats or his scoring stats that suggest he is still battling any health concerns. He enters with top 20s in two of his last three starts. CHOFF was the first-round leader here last year and found himself inside the top 5 heading into Sunday. He did that same thing two years prior as he was T2 after day one and entered the final round inside the top 5. Hoffman is on the record saying this course fits his eyes, visually. Combine that with his history here and that’s all I need to see for a golfer in this price range.
This Guy is "Good to Go" for the Masters
He settled for a T44 in his 2012 Masters debut but returned last year to post a T7 finish. He beat the field by 3+ strokes in two of his four rounds here last year. Chappell is the king at turning top 40s into top 10s in the matter of one round. With a small field this week, a high percentage of golfers should make it through the cut. That means we should get at least one super-low round out of Chappie this week. He didn’t finish his final match at Match Play due to a back injury but he was already eliminated at that point. I’m not putting too much stock into that. I think he’s good to go and one of the best ball-strikers in the field.
An Easy Golfer to Sprinkle Across Lineups
He’s gained 5 or more strokes tee-to-green in three of his last four starts. That kind of elite ball-striking is the perfect recipe for success here at Augusta National. He’s beat the field in par 5 scoring in 8 of his last 10 starts which is another easy way to pick up fantasy points this week on a course that features four par 5s. One of the best drivers of the golf ball which should lead to plenty of GIRs this week. An easy golfer to sprinkle across lineups, given his low salary and high scoring upside.
Get Value With This "Georgia Boy"
Reed is a Georgia boy who went to Augusta State. That means he’s gotten a ton of exposure to Augusta National, besides his four trips to the Masters. He has the preferred shot shape (right to left), has elite short game, and experience on the course. None of that has translated to success here… YET! He also arrives with back-to-back top 10s in stroke-play events and made a good run at the WGC-Match Play event. It would be a very Patrick Reed move to crash the party of so many elite golfers that arrive in great form this week. He’s also on the record for liking bentgrass greens, saying this a few years ago at Colonial, “Those are always nice. Any time you can get bentgrass greens, that just means one less factor. You don’t have all that really grainy Bermuda.”
This Isn't the Same Ol' Short Hitter
Normally, this is a spot where I would avoid Molinari. His generally cautious game and general lack of distance doesn’t inspire much confidence at this golf course. He doesn’t have much of a history to speak of, either, though he has played here several times. That’s the bad news. Here’s the good news: this isn’t the same ol’ Francesco Molinari. The current version of Francesco Molinari ranks 29th on the PGA Tour in driving distance this year, which has him tied with the likes of bigger hitters like Grayson Murray and ahead of bombers like Thomas Pieters and J.B. Holmes. He’s letting it rip with more confidence now, and that should help guide him to a solid finish here. Let the “short hitter” narrative rest with other content providers this week, as Molinari is not that in his current state. The Italian is a fine value play that should be over-looked to some degree.
Give This Guy a Long Look as a Value Play
First off, take a look at his price tag on FanDuel. The fine pricing team at FanDuel has apparently mixed up Rafael Cabrera-Bello and Angel Cabrera, as the latter is priced over $10,000. Cabrera-Bello is simply a plug and play for me in all formats over there, and he will provide you access to almost any other golfers you want to fill out the rest of your roster. I even like Cabrera-Bello on the other sites, too. While his price is not as favorable on DraftKings or FantasyDraft, he’s still a solid value on those sites. He is an elite all-around player, and some DFS players might be scared off with his ugly missed cut at the Houston Open last week. However, we have seen him play well in majors before, specifically in last year’s Open Championship. He also has a 17th place finish at Augusta under his belt two years ago, even though he missed the cut last year. Give him a long look as a value play.
The Obvious Spot of the Week.
Here is the obvious spot of the week. Augusta National is a fantastic fit for Bubba Watson, as he has won here twice in his career. The only long-term question was his underwhelming current form, which still existed when most sites released their pricing for this week. Since then, Watson has been on a tear, and he is coming off a dominant victory at the Dell Match Play a couple weeks ago. The goofy switch to Volvik golf balls in 2017 is a thing of the past now, and Watson is in prime form for a big run at this tournament. His DFS price to odds ratio is probably the best you will find in the entire field, and it’s difficult for me to advocate a fade even based on his high projected ownership. The course fit and form are too good for his current price tag, and he should feast on the par fives this week.
My Pick to Win This Year's Masters.
Something clicked for him a few weeks ago when he won at Bay Hill on another difficult golf course. In that event, he gained TEN strokes on the field with the putter, which is unheard of given the way he had previously been rolling it. Like the aforementioned Spieth, Rory’s tee-to-green game can mask the putter at times. The one benefit Rory has is that he has a bit more distance off the tee, which provides him a little extra boost at Augusta. He has top tens in each of the last four editions of this event, and it seems like this could be his time to rise to the top of the leaderboard. It’s a close call, but McIlroy is my pick to win this year’s Masters.
This Mathematician Could Contend at Augusta
This is where DeChambeau broke onto the scene. He played here as an amateur and finished in a tie for 21st. After that, he turned professional and had a few solid finishes. He then disappeared for quite some time. We often see this with talented golfers coming out of college. They flash some upside, struggle to live up to expectations, and then rebound later in their careers. DeChambeau is a ball striking machine, ranking 23rd or better in strokes gained on approaches and off the tee. He is ranked second in this field in par five scoring and he is dirt cheap across the industry. People love to hate on Bryson, so his ownership will be lower than it should be.
Playing Monkey-Free this Week
Casey is similar to Rose in that he checks all of the boxes and projects to be one of the highest owned golfers in the field. I don’t expect his ownership to be quite as high as Rose’s, but it will certainly be in the top five. Casey finally got the monkey off his back with a win a few weeks ago. He’s been one of the best tee to green golfers on tour over the last few years, he’s just always had that one bad round that takes him out of contention. He certainly likes this course, as evidenced by the three straight top six finishes. I wouldn’t go as far as to bet Casey outright, but he certainly has top five upside and his price feels a little too cheap across the industry.
Finding Form at Just the Right Time
If you watched the live show before the Houston Open, I only asked one thing of Spieth — wait one more week before popping. Before the event, Spieth was on track to be the overlooked player in the upper price range. He just had to have that big weekend and finish in a tie for third. That’s all it took for him to become the betting favorite at the Masters. I expect everyone to jump on Spieth, but I will still be loading up on him in all formats. My philosophy is simple — I will never fade or target a golfer strictly because of ownership. If I like a golfer, I will play him and look to differentiate elsewhere. Spieth’s track record at Augusta speaks for itself — second, first, second, and T12 in the last four years. He is ranked third on tour in strokes gained tee to green. His bad putting this season has hid the fact that he has become an elite ball striker.
The Big Cat is Ready to Contend in a Major
It’s become a trend amongst DFS experts to fade Tiger Woods. I don’t really understand it. It’s almost groupthink at this point. If you want to fade Tiger because of his off the tee concerns, I won’t argue with you, but don’t give me the whole “he’s going to be too popular” argument. Justin Rose, Paul Casey, and Jordan Spieth will all carry higher ownership (at least in my opinion). I expect Tiger’s ownership to be much lower than everyone is projecting because the whole industry is telling everyone to fade him. It’s no secret that I am a huge Tiger fan. I mean, I’ve targeted him in every event that he’s played in. So far, it has worked to my advantage. His tee to green game continues to improve and it’s not like he can’t hit the driver. We’ve seen some monster drives from him this season and Augusta National is a place where you can be a little wild off the tee. Woods has arguably the best short game on tour and he knows this course like the back of his hand. Let the haters hate. I’ll be playing a ton of Tiger this week.
Ian Poulter earns his spot to The Masters in style
After winning his round of 16 match at this year’s WGC Match Play tournament, Ian Poulter was informed that he should move inside the top 50 in the world thus earning a spot into this year’s Masters. Shortly before his quarterfinal match vs Kevin Kisner, Poulter was informed that there was a miscalculation of his world ranking and he would need a win in the round of 8 in order to move inside the top 50 in the world. Poulter, unfortunately, lost his quarterfinals match that day and would need a win at last week’s Houston Open in order to play in the year’s first major. A poor start to last week’s event left Poulter in the 132nd position after round one, but to the surprise of many this almost forgotten star of past European Ryder Cup teams stormed back over the next three rounds to force a win and earn his spot in this week’s Masters. Poulter and four other golfers have been added to pricing pools for the first major of the year. Playing in his 13 Masters, Poulter has the current form worthy of a roster consideration for GPP’s this week. Having moved almost 170 spots in the world rankings since this time last year, Poulter is arguably playing the best golf of his career headed into this week. Priced reasonably across the industry, Poulter has both the game and the momentum needed to perform well as a GPP option for the year’s first major.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown