DFS Alerts
Jason Dufner could get overlooked this week
As roster construction scenarios play themselves out this week many in the industry are finding the need to attack value plays between the seven and eight thousand dollar price range on DraftKings. This week is not like any other in the sense that we see projected ownership congregate on a few popular players thus leaving an opportunity to buy low on players in that could also be in a good spot. Jason Dufner is having a great season and should garnish more attention than he is receiving this week. Currently projected to have a fourth of the ownership of Gary Woodland, the choice to roster Dufner creates a great spot to differentiate your lineups this week. With all of the talk about Club de Golf Chapultepec being a second shot course, excellent ball strikers like Dufner should be in play this week. The major improvement in Dufner’s game this season is his putting. Plagued by inconsistency in his flat stick, Dufner currently sits inside the top 20 in strokes gained-putting this year. While Dufner has yet to win this season, he does have three top 20’s in his four starts this calendar year and is a good spot to play well this week. For just one hundred dollars less in salary, Dufner provides an easy solution for those looking to fade the chalk on Woodland this week. While both players are worth a roster spot consideration, the game theory angle of choosing Dufner at such a low ownership number is very appealing when you think about trying to win a large field GPP.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership
Tommy Fleetwood looks to stay hot
It’s only a matter of time before the extremely talented Tommy Fleetwood wins on the PGA Tour. Fleetwood was able to bounce back from a somewhat disappointing 37th place finish at the Genesis Open a few weeks ago and post a solid 4th place showing at last week’s Honda Classic. Over his last few starts, Fleetwood is hitting on average 80% of greens in regulation and once again should be in-line to play well at this week’s venue. Many in the industry agree that Club de Golf Chapultepec will tend to favor accurate second shots, so if Fleetwood can keep up his current form he should be in a great spot to challenge for his first win on the PGA Tour. Fleetwood will play the first two rounds with fellow European Tour players Alex Noren and Sergio Garcia, as he looks to improve on his second-place finish in last year’s WGC Mexico Championship.
As reported by: Drive For Show, DFS For Dough Shubhankar Sharma is set to make his PGA debut
Shubhankar Sharma is set to make both his PGA and WGC debuts this week. Currently ranked 75th in the world, Sharma burst onto the golf scene this year by winning twice in his first fifteen starts on the European Tour. With his victory at the Joburg Open, Sharma became the youngest Indian to win on the European Tour. The 21-year old Sharma will have his hand’s full playing against the best in the game this week, but his affordable price tag is drawing interest amongst the DFS community. Sharma gets the benefit of playing with lesser known players during the first two rounds as he is paired with Gavin Green and Chan Kim. This type of pairing should help Sharma ease into his first WGC competition. Gaining interest as the week progresses, Sharma could reach an ownership level near 15% by the time round one starts. With this week being a no-cut event it makes a ton of sense to gamble on a low priced player that has shown he can win on one of the biggest tours in golf. While a win would be a big stretch this week, it would not take much for Sharma to pay off his $7,000 price tag on DraftKings. The combination of his price and current form makes taking a shot on this up and coming player an intriguing option for The WGC Mexican Championship.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Dustin Johnson sits in the top overall spot in the DraftKings consensus value rankings
Current world number one and defending WGC Mexico Champion Dustin Johnson ranks as the number one player in our DraftKings Consensus value rankings for the first WGC event of the season. While Johnson certainly warrants the top spot in the rankings he is not without some company this week. With young stars such as Justin Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood entering this week with all the momentum in the world and at a cheaper price, the case could be made for spending top end salary in other spots. It’s almost strange to think of him as the type of player who should be considered elite, but since he three-putted to lose the 2015 Open Johnson has been both dominant and unflappable. In addition to his 8 wins since the start of the 2016 season, Johnson has only finished outside the top 15 in 9 of the 46 events he has entered. Early in his career, Johnson lacked the consistency that he now possesses, and even with the abundance of young and talented players in this week’s field, he deserves strong consideration as one of the best top end spends for this week’s WGC Mexico Championship.
As reported by: DraftKings PGA Value Rankings Branden Grace provides a nice source of salary relief for The WGC Mexico Championship
Strong field events always present a unique dynamic in terms of pricing. With so many talented players in this week’s field, it’s not uncommon to see a world class player priced a bit lower than normal. Currently ranked 28th in the world, Branden Grace is a strong source of value at $7,700 for the first WGC event of the year. Heading into this week Grace already has one worldwide win this season and has posted respectable finishes in his two starts on the PGA Tour in 2018. With the lack of valuable course history to use this week, we must instead look to find edges by looking at the type of golf course in play this week. Club de Golf Chapultepec will feature greens that are dominant in the strain of kikyugrass. According to RotoGrinders contributor and stats specialist Josh Culp, Grace is the type of player that flourishes on kikyugrass. Both his win at Nedbank and his runner-up at the South African Open were on courses with kikyugrass. Even without his prowess on kikyugrass Grace remains a talent to be considered in this price range. With a low projected ownership, Grace should make for an interesting pivot off other popular players in his price range.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Ross Fisher has GPP upside this week
WGC events were created to get the best players in the world all in one place to compete across the globe throughout the year. And while all of the players in this week’s field earned a spot there could be an argument that the system leaves out players who are currently playing good golf but lack overall high standing in the official world golf rankings. Since the ranking system weights tournaments across the globe, you will see players in this week’s field who don’t normally play in PGA tour events. Ross Fisher may not be the most recognizable name in this week’s event, but this 27th ranked golfer in the world has the game and talent that merits your attention in GPP’s this week. Priced up due to his stellar performance in last year’s WGC Mexico Championship, Fisher’s game really started to shine at this point last season when he followed up a third-place finish at last year’s WGC Mexico Championship with a T5 at the WGC match play. Fisher finished in second place at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship earlier this year and is no stranger to playing well in strong field events. In order to have a good week in GPP’s you will need to find low owned value with upside, and Fisher has the talent to fill that role this week.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Jordan Spieth could go under owned this week
It’s not very often that you can look through the RotoGrinders ownership projections and see a player of Jordan Spieth’s caliber with a sub 10% projected number beside his name. The world of DFS sports can often produce a mindset centered around the idea of inflating both good and bad recent performances. We saw this happen last week with Tiger Woods as much of the community let his bad play the week prior deter them from picking him in a decent spot at The Honda Classic. With all of the attention going to players like Tommy Fleetwood and defending champion and current number one ranked player in the world Dustin Johnson, it’s easy to see how the ownership number on Spieth could take a hit this week. While Jordan Spieth has not exactly set the world on fire of late, the current Open Champion has the game and resume to demand a bit more admiration than he is getting this week. The combination of his upside with the current low ownership projection creates a great leverage spot for this week’s WGC Mexico Championship.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership WGC Mexcio DraftKings projections are live and veteran Pat Perez ranks as a top play
At this very point in time two years ago Pat Perez was not even in the top 300 in the official world golf rankings. At 41 Perez is defying both his age and injuries to play the best golf of his career. Prior to the 2017 season, nagging injuries surrounded Perez, and there was some question to how well he could play moving forward. Heading into this week, Perez finds himself a three-time tour winner who now ranks as the 18th best player in the world. In his last 32 events, Perez has 19 top 25 or better finishes and rates as a great value on DraftKings this week. The WGC Mexico is a no-cut event, so taking a risk on cheaper players is a great strategy when building stars and scrubs lineups. Perez is playing the best golf of his career and ranks as the overall top play in the RotoGrinders DraftKings projection tool in terms of Pt/$/K and at $7,400 he should be a great play in all formats.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Patton Kizzire continues to gain steam
Fueled by two early season wins Patton Kizzire has emerged as a player to take watch on the PGA Tour. Currently ranked in the top overall position in the FedEx Cup standings, Kizzire has earned the right to be a part of a featured pairing on the PGA tour. Kizzire will have the somewhat daunting task of playing along Tiger Woods and Brandt Snedeker for the first two rounds of The Honda Classic. Kizzire will need a great week if he hopes to earn a spot in next week’s WGC event, as he would have to move up 10 spots in the official world golf rankings to gain an exemption. Priced at a very affordable $7,300 this week on DraftKings, Kizzire is gaining steam as one of the more popular picks in terms of predicted ownership. If Kizzire can manage to block out the large crowds associated with a Woods pairing and play his own game, then he becomes a great value pick for this week. In a very similar situation to this, Kizzire played well in a featured pairing that included Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth at this year’s Waste Management Open.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Weather update for The Honda Classic
Kevin Roth just posted his weather report of The Honda Classic in the main forum. According to Roth, we can expect the wind to be a factor this week, but not in a way that we can look to take advantage of one tee time wave over another. With both Thursday and Friday predicted to have similar weather pattern (Isolated storms and wind) the edge to be gained this week lies more in what type of player that performs well in these conditions instead of trying to guess which wave might less favorable weather. When the wind blows we typically want to target players that excel in controlling ball flight. Last year’s champion Rickie Fowler is that type of player. With the ability to hit the ball in both directions, Fowler is also creative enough to play different shot’s if needed in order to take advantage of the wind. Sometimes the weather factor can gain too much steam towards the end of the week. Instead of going all in on players who only hit it well in the wind, you can instead use weather as a tiebreaker if needed. If you are close to picking between two different players give the slight bump to the golfer that you feel is best suited for a little bit of windy golf. As always we will watch the weather up until lock and will provide any additional updates prior to Thursday morning if needed.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Tiger Woods looks to bounce back from a missed cut
The Tiger Woods comeback campaign took a dramatic halt halfway through his second round at The Genesis Open last week. Two over par through 28 holes and right on the cut line, Woods played his last 8 holes on Friday four over par to miss the cut at Rivera. While Woods certainly did not look great on Friday, he did at times showcase the skills needed to play well on tour. Due to his missed cut and overall low interest, Woods has an extremely low ownership prediction for this week’s Honda Classic. Even though we play a week to week game in DFS golf, it’s very important to use a long-term forecast to make grounded choices on a player. If you liked Woods prior to last week, then one bad nine holes of golf should not stray you from picking him again this week. Had Woods made the cut last week, and played somewhat reasonable on the weekend, then it’s safe to say that his ownership level would be almost five times that of this week’s current projection. The comeback trail for Tiger Woods could be harder and longer than most of us expect, but his low ownership projection for The Honda Classic creates a great spot to not only pivot off other popular golfers, but it also allows you to invest in a player that could potentially crush his value. Always known for having one of the best minds in the game of golf it would not surprise me to see Woods use less than driver this week on a course that is not overly long. Ball flight and shaping shots could be critical elements needed to play well at PGA National, and if Woods can keep it in play off the tee his iron game has looked sharp enough to create scoring opportunities. The choice to roster Woods does not come without risk, but if you like his chances to eventually return, then this is a great spot to buy low on a player that has the skill set needed to play well this week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Tyrrell Hatton ranks near the top in the FanDuel projections model
Over his last 10 worldwide starts, Hatton has 10 straight top 20 or better finishes including two wins. Still reality unknowns to a large part of the golf community, Hatton has consistently ranked inside the top 30 in the world over the last two seasons. Like many other foreign-born players before him, Hatton knows that success on the PGA Tour is needed if he wants to take his game to the next level. In 13 starts on the PGA Tour last season, Hatton had mixed results. The Englishman was able to offset his five missed cuts with 8 top 25 or better finishes including 3 top 10’s. Hatton’s first top ten of the year came at least years Honda Classic and the combination of his solid play and reasonable price has him ranked near the top of our FanDuel model in terms of Pt/$K. Hatton is gaining steam this week and makes for a great play in all formats for this week’s event.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Sergio Garcia ranks as a top tier spend this week
Sergio Garcia is set to make his 2018 PGA debut this week. The reigning Masters champion will make his 8th start at The Honda Classic this week and currently sits upon the top spot in our DraftKings Expert Rankings. In addition to his perfect cut record at PGA National, Garcia has 4 top 15 or better finishes including a runner-up finish to Adam Scott at the 2016 Honda Classic. As the fourth highest priced golfer this week, Garcia will get a bit more looks than normal due to the overall lack of viable top end spends this week. After having a few events with multiple golfers inside the top 10 in the world to choose from, The Honda classic only features two such players this week( Justin Thomas #4, Rickie Fowler #7). While all of the top 4 in the pricing tree this week are great options for this course, Garcia is gaining appeal due to his consistent play and reasonable price. Looking at Garcia’s last 5 years on tour ( 70 starts) gives a great sense of how well he has played. Seventy percent of the time ( 49) Garcia tees it up he finishes inside the top 25, with 18 of the those being top 10 or better showings. The current number eleven player in the world took a big step in his career by winning his first major last year, and you get the sense that he will win a few more before his career is finished. Take the discount on Garcia this week as he provides the unique combination of safety and upside for this week’s Honda Classic.
As reported by: DraftKings PGA Value Rankings John Peterson is no longer in the field at The Honda Classic
The often entertaining Peterson who made twitter headlines on Monday by asking Tiger Woods if he would be his partner for the Zurich Classic later this year has withdrawn from this weeks event. At this point, there has been no injury news associated with Peterson’s decision to not play in The Honda Classic. Roberto Díaz will take Peterson’s spot in the field, but will not be available for in DFS pricing pools.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Louis Oosthuizen set to make his 2018 PGA debut
With the year’s first major just around the corner and a handful of big events to be played over the next few weeks, we begin to see some of the bigger foreign-born players make their way into PGA Tour events. Currently ranked inside the top 30 in the world, Louis Oosthuizen will make his 2018 PGA debut at this week’s Honda Classic. Known for his propensity to withdraw from events due to a bad back, Oosthuizen often goes overlooked by the large majority of the DFS community. Early week ownership projections have Oosthuzien trending towards a fairly low number thus making him an interesting pivot off other similar priced players. The 35 yeard old Oosthuizen played surprisingly consistent golf last season as he made 17 of 18 cuts last year on tour finishing one spot out of making it to the tour championship. The choice to roster Oosthuizen always comes with risk, but he should have the game to play well this week. Oosthuizen made the cut at last year’s Honda Classic finishing inside the top 25. If you are looking to take some shots based upon ownership numbers, Oosthuizen has the talent and upside to more than pay off his price this week and could end up being a great leverage play in large field GPP’s.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership