DFS Alerts
Winning Upside At A Reasonable Price
On a points per dollar basis, Finau is easily my favorite choice on the board for this event. The South Course is an absolutely perfect fit for his game, and Finau is eventually going to have a year where he wins multiple tournaments. After a near-miss at the Hero World Challenge back in November, this could be the spot for him to get it rolling. He’s on record as loving the way the course suits his game, and it’s no surprise. He leads the PGA Tour in driving distance so far this season, and he is capable of being a well above average ball striker. He has finished inside the top 25 in all three of his trips here, too, with the results largely improving every year. It’s all systems go for me, and this one is a no brainer in all DFS contest formats.
Fifteen minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
With a little over fifteen minutes until the roster lock of the year, it’s quiet on the news front. Just a reminder if you are new to DFS and have a concern about the weather in terms of tee time stacking, the format this week features three courses so all golfers will tee off in the same 2-hour window. Good luck this week grinders, as always if any late news breaks we will provide the updates needed. Golf ownership numbers will be up and running within five minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out Results DB to see how your percentages stack up vs the field.
Aaron Wise continues to gain steam
Aaron Wise made headlines this offseason as he posted social media images of the changes made to his body in preparation for his sophomore season on tour. Wise gained a significant amount of muscle mass this offseason and heads into this week looking to build on a solid debut at last year’s Desert Classic. With one win already under his belt, Wise is considered by many to be one of the more talented young players on tour. With a very reasonable price tag on the week, Wise is the biggest gainer of projected ownership for the week. Using projected ownership is a great way to decide how you feel about a particular player for any given week. With his increase in popularity, there is always a case to be made for looking at potential ownership pivots in the same price range. Although he is an extremely talented young player, if you felt like perhaps this was the week to go under the field on Wise then there are a few decent players in the same price range that have almost half his ownership. The use of projected ownership is a great tool to add to your arsenal of roster building each week. Even if you don’t end up taking a hard stance on a popular play, you will be a better player in the long run for having gone through the process of evaluating the merits of that decision.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Pat Perez is a great value play this week
It’s really hard to quantify in golf the really thin line between success and failure at the highest level of competition. For example, if you just look at a game log and see a missed cut that will not often tell the story of how a player performed that week. In the case of Pat Perez, game log watchers will see a missed cut at last week’s Sony Open and assume that he played poorly. Perez missed the cut by one shot last week failing to birdie his last hole of the day, a very attackable par 5. If he makes that cut then there is a better than average chance that both his price and ownership are a bit higher for this week’s Desert Classic. That being said, Perez is still an excellent source of value for the week. In addition to his win, Perez has made 9 out of 13 cuts including 4 top 30 or better finishes. Perez is a proven veteran on tour and has more than enough upside to pay off his salary for the week.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Daniel Berger set to return from injury
Daniel Berger played the last part of the 2018 season with a troublesome wrist injury. The nature of the injury did not allow Berger to practice as much as he would have liked towards the end of the year, and he was forced to miss The BMW Championship in order to prevent further injury. Berger took the fall swing off and is set to make his 2019 season debut this week. According to our predicted ownership, Berger has lost the most interest as the week progresses creating an opportunity to buy low on what is still a very talented golfer. The fear of injury could have lead to the lower ownership number, but since this is a Pro-Am format, players would not make it this far into the week if they were not ready to go. While rust could be a factor to start the season, Berger has played enough PGA Tour golf to know what it takes to be ready for this week. In a format where golfers are guaranteed three rounds of play Berger offers a ton of upside at his discounted price for the week and remains a sneaky GPP flyer to start the west coast swing.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Ben Martin is no longer in the field
Ben Martin withdrew from The Dessert Classic today and has been replaced in the field by Tyrone Van Aswegen. Martin has six starts left on his major medical exemption and has opted to skip this weeks event after missing the cut at The Sony. Van Aswegen will not be in the DFS pricing pools this week.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Charles Howell looks to keep momentum going
PGA Tour veteran Charles Howell ended one of the longest winning streaks on tour with his victory at The RSM Classic during the wrap-around season. For those of you who are new to DFS golf, Howell is the type of player that we love target often this time of year due to his solid play on this stretch of golf know as the west coast swing. Howell’s PGA career has been marred by his inability to win, but from a DFS standpoint, he is a guy worth targeting due to his reliability and steady ball striking. Priced up in this week’s field due to his recent win Howell is player trending towards a lower than expected ownership number. While he may not have the luster of a John Rahm or a Justin Rose, there is a strong case to made for Howell as a top end spend on the week. For starters, we know his track record in events played on the west coast, and more importantly, Howell is playing some of the best golf of his career right now and should have plenty of confidence after his win. If you are looking for a way to gain an edge via ownership then starting your lineups off with Howell provides a completely different roster construction and one could argue that you are not giving up a ton of upside in comparison to other high priced golfers.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Great Course Fit
Right when the salaries came out, I had no interest in Niemann. He really had a disappointing finish to 2018, but after a deeper dive into his statistics, I’m back on board. He’s gained strokes tee to green in 14 of his last 15 events on tour. His biggest weaknesses are around the green and putting. Scrambling is extremely easy on these three resort courses. In fact, the winners over the last few years have actually lost strokes around the green on average. As long as he has a decent putting week, he should easily be able to outperform his price point. I’m expecting a win for Niemann at some point this season, so he’ll be a regular feature in this article.
Fool me Once...
Johnson was brutal last week. He couldn’t get anything going and fell to +4 after his eighth hole on Friday. He then played his next nine holes in -5 and only needed a birdie on the par five to make the cut. He hit a good drive, drove it into a greenside bunker, and then skulled the bunker shot over the green. It was painful, but we have to forgive and forget in DFS. The missed cut will lead to lower ownership and his price has come down on DraftKings. He’s gone nearly two full years without missing back-to-back cuts. I’m expecting a big bounce back week from Johnson. He’s a good fit for the course, as he is great with irons, scores well on the par fours, and is one of the best putters in the field.
One of the Safest Plays on the Board
Glover is one of those golfers that rarely garners a lot of ownership. He’s been one of the better tee to green players on tour for the last five years, but is consistently near the bottom in strokes gained putting. While you need to putt well to win on tour, you don’t need to putt well to make cuts and pay off your salary in DFS. Glover has been in great form recently, posting four straight top 20 finishes on tour. He’s one of the best par four scorers and he has a good track record at this event, posting four straight top 41 finishes. I’m not sure that I would bet Glover to win this week, but I certainly like his chances to post another top 20. He’s a reliable cash game target.
The Chezticle
Reavie had not one, not two, but three holeouts from more than 100 yards out on Friday at the Sony Open. It was an amazing round of golf and he finished the week gaining eight strokes on his approaches. A slightly better putting week and he could have walked away with a win. We’ve seen this from Reavie in the past — when his tee to green game is on, he can string together strong finishes. He’s been close to a win a few times over the last calendar year, so perhaps this is the week that he can finally get the monkey off his back. He’s ranked seventh in this field in strokes gained on approaches and ninth in par four scoring. He doesn’t have any amazing finishes at this event, but has two top 20s here in the last three years.
Pro-Ams are No Issue for Mr. Happy Feet
The two big trends that you will hear this week (and that I wrote up in the First Look) are that eight of the last nine winners of this event played in Hawaii in one of the two previous events. Furthermore, each of the last six winners here had played the event before the year that they won. Cantlay doesn’t have either of those trends going for him this week. While he didn’t play in Hawaii the last two weeks, many don’t know that he has played this event twice back in 2012 and 2013. He’s clearly a different golfer at this stage in his career. He’s finished inside the top seven each of the last three times he’s teed it up on tour and he’s a perfect fit statistically. He’s ranked second in strokes gained approach, second in proximity, and first in par four scoring. If his putter shows up, he should find himself in contention once again.
Best Golfer in the Field and the Defending Champ
Much like last week, it’s hard to stomach a fade of the betting favorite. Jon Rahm is the defending champion of this event and he’s listed as seven-to-one on most sportsbooks. He won the Hero World Challenge back in December and backed it up with a T8 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. I try to stay away from narratives as often as I can, but one that has really paid dividends over the last two years is that Rahm plays better on easier courses. He has really struggled at the majors and some of the other tough courses on tour, yet he always seems to be in the mix in these birdie-fests. I see this as a combination of factors — the first is that Rahm doesn’t like to club down off the tee, so he can get into trouble on courses with thick rough. The second factor is that he tends to lose his cool when things don’t go his way, which happen more often on tougher courses. I write all of this to say that he’s the top projected play of the week and firmly in play in all formats.
Patrick Cantlay set to make his 2019 debut
Ready to start his 3rd full season as both a healthy and top player on The PGA Tour, Patrick Cantlay will start his 2019 season this week at The Desert Classic. Currently ranked inside the top 20 in the world, Cantlay prepares to improve on a season in which he earned his first PGA Tour win. Cantlay’s road to recovery has been one of the better stories on the tour, and evident by his number of starts last season ( 23), we can expect to see this rising superstar at more events in the future. Despite having only played in this event once, the choice to add The Desert Classic to his 2019 calendar indicates that Cantlay feels like this is an event that suits his game. Ranked near the top of many of the strokes gained stats, Cantlay is an elite ball striker that fits the style of golf needed to play well this week. Priced down from the other big named golfers in this week’s field, Cantlay has all of the makings of a great GPP play for the week. From a long term perspective, California native is the type of player that has winning upside each and every week he plays, so even though he is playing in this event for the first time Cantlay is a player worth adding into your GPP roster build mix.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Zach Johnson looks to bounce back from a missed cut
The start of the 2019 calendar year did not go as planned for PGA Tour veteran Zach Johnson. As one of the more popular picks for the week, Johnson missed a cut at a venue where he historically plays great golf. In the field again this week at The Desert Classic, Johnson will look to rebound from that missed cut as he plays in this event for the ninth time in his career. Priced down to his poor performance last week, Johnson sits as one of the stronger plays in Pt/$/K for the week in our projection model. Johnson will look to build on 4 top 25 or better finishes highlighted by T3 at the 2014 Desert Classic. The ability to have a short memory is a great tool in a game where the line between success and failure is often very thin. The addition of Johnson to your roster build pool is a great way to get exposure to a very talented golfer at a great price.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool