10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 4th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Friday, August 4th.
1. After throwing six scoreless innings and racking up eight strikeouts against the Mets in his last start, James Paxton now has five straight games of 6+ innings, 7+ strikeouts, and 2 or fewer earned runs. Only two other Mariners in history have had streaks of five such games, and if you know anything whatsoever about the Mariners, you can probably guess who those two pitchers are: Felix Hernandez and Randy Johnson. During this stretch, Paxton has posted a 1.36 ERA (third-best among pitchers with at least 20 IP since July 2nd) while allowing just a .212 wOBA (second-best) to go with a 34.1% strikeout rate (fifth-best). He faced 151 batter since he last allowed a home run to Maikel Franco way back on June 25th. On Saturday, Paxton is an elite play in all formats. The matchup isn’t perfect, as the Royals strikeout at just an 18.9% clip (seventh-lowest in MLB). But this is a pitcher who notched 10 strikeouts against the Red Sox, owner of the lowest strikeout rate in MLB against lefties (16.4%), and against whom no other lefty starter has struck out more than six batters this year. If he’s on, Paxton will get his strikeouts, and his strikeout expectation shouldn’t be dinged too much because of the matchup.
2. Since Jacob deGrom’s major league debut on May 15th, 2014, he has pitched 312 innings in his home park. During that time frame, 28 other pitchers have matched or exceeded deGrom’s 312 innings at home. Here’s how he ranks:
ERA – 2nd (2.02)
xFIP – 3rd (2.99)
HR – 1st (18)
wOBA – 3rd (.246)
K% – 5th (28.6%)
While home/road splits can contain noise, particularly in small samples, deGrom has been far more effective at CitiField for a long enough sample that we can safely throw him into the “better at home” bucket of pitchers along with pitchers like Chris Archer. On Friday, he toes the rubber against the Los Angeles Dodgers. deGrom has been one of the steadiest pitchers in daily fantasy as of late, with a 1.73 ERA and solid 26.8% strikeout rate over his past nine games. However, it’s worth noting that only two of those nine games came against opponents in the top half of MLB in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers (Mariners, Nationals). The Dodgers, on the other hand, rank in the top five in MLB in wOBA (.336) and wRC+ (.109) and 10th in ISO (.187) against righties. Because of the matchup and price tag, deGrom makes more sense as a tournament play than as a cash game staple on Friday.
3. Here are the five best pitchers this year (min. 1000 total pitches this year) in terms of expected wOBA on pitches on the edge of the strike zone: Chris Sale (.178), Max Scherzer (.190), Corey Kluber (.191), Clayton Kershaw (.197), and … Brad Peacock (.201). Peacock’s inclusion on this list is noteworthy because it says that, despite his issues with allowing walks, he’s elite at using the outer part of the plate. In other words, the guy can pitch. He reclaimed his starting gig as a result of Lance McCullers hitting the DL, and he’s a heavy -180 favorite at home against a Toronto team that, surprisingly, ranks in the bottom third of MLB this year in wOBA (.313) and wRC+ (92) against right-handed pitching. The uncertainty of Peacock’s slot in Houston’s rotation makes him a gamble on Friday – there’s no real reason to give him a long leash if he struggles, considering he may be back in the bullpen as soon as McCullers returns anyway – but it’s not difficult to envision him putting up something like six innings with only an earned run or two allowed and eight strikeouts. A line like that would make him a fine tournament play, especially given his likely low ownership.
4. It’s time for a game of blind resume! Take a look at the two sets of pitcher numbers below:
| Stat | Player A | Player B |
|---|---|---|
| IP | 60.0 | 60.2 |
| ER | 49 | 23 |
| ERA | 7.35 | 3.41 |
| HR | 15 | 4 |
| K% | 15.0% | 26.4% |
| OPS | .993 | .713 |
So, in roughly the same number of innings, Player A has been lightyears worse than Player B, in essentially every metric imaginable (and there were even more – I had to cut it off just for readability’s sake).
Are you ready? Player A and Player B are both Kevin Gausman this year. Player A is Gausman with Welington Castillo as his catcher, while Player B is Gausman with Caleb Joseph behind the plate. Clearly, it matters who Gausman’s catcher is, and if Joseph is in the lineup, the matchup with the righty-heavy Tigers is an exploitable one, as Gausman has been a far superior pitcher against same-handed hitters this year (3.80 xFIP vs. RHB, 5.65 xFIP vs. LHB).
5. “Why would I roster Kevin Gausman and his Jordan Zimmermann-esque 5.37 ERA?” (is something you might be (reasonably) asking yourself). Clearly, he’s too risky for cash games. But there’s no deying he’s got tremendous upside when he’s right. Case in point: here is the pitchers with streaks of three straight games of 8+ strikeouts and one or fewer earned runs this year: Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie Ray, and Gausman, who has done it in his last three games, all not-so-easy matchups (at Texas, home vs. Texas, at Tampa Bay). And in case you’re wondering, Caleb Joseph was his catcher for all three games. Gausman has been absolutely elite against the 44 righties he’s faced in this three-game span with a 29.5% strikeout rate, a 64.3% ground ball rate and just a .203 wOBA allowed. If he can bring anything close to those numbers against the (likely) seven right-handed batters in Detroit’s lineup, he could easily exceed his salary, and at low ownership.
6. Here is the complete list of pitchers that have a better road ERA since 2016 than Yu Darvish 2.41 mark: Clayton Kershaw. That’s it. Darvish’s .581 OPS over 17 road starts since last year also trails only Kershaw (.579). Since OPS isn’t a stat used all that often in DFS, here’s an illustration of just how low a .579 OPS is: only three active players in MLB (min. 1,000 PA) have OPS marks lower than .581, and those players are Drew Butera, Jeff Mathis, and Paul Janish. Darvish has been elite when away from hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington, and with his recent trade to the Dodgers, we should expect his numbers to look much more favorable from this point forward. At just 3.65 runs, the Mets’ implied run total is the lowest on the slate, and that, coupled with their tendency to strikeout often against righties (22.4% K rate, 12th-highest in MLB) makes Darvish an elite option, assuming Dave Roberts gives him a longer leash than he has for the other non-Kershaw Dodgers starters. Since Darvish is essentially a rental, I think it’s safe to assume that Darvish will be allowed his typical pitch count.
7. After homering for his third straight game last night, Joey Gallo has an MLB-leading eight home runs after the All-Star break; he’s hit a home run once every 6.25 at-bats in the second half. His matchup on Friday couldn’t be much better, as he faces Bartolo Colon. Although he’s been bad to both righties and lefties (or basically any hitter with a bat and a pulse), Colon is much more of a fly ball pitcher to left-handed batters (44.3% fly ball rate vs. LHB, 28.6% vs. RHB). This, of course, works in Gallo’s favor. Colon’s low 13.3% strikeout rate to lefties (ranked 89th of 100 qualified starters) also helps, as it decreases the likelihood of Gallo striking out multiple times (and for the record, his 40 multi-strikeout games trails only Khris Davis, Aaron Judge, and Miguel Sano for most in MLB). His strikeout issues and his low spot in Texas’s order makes Gallo too risky for cash, even in this matchup. But he’s as good a bet as anyone to homer on Friday.
8. Since 2015, Edwin Encarnacion has a .321 ISO against ground ball pitchers, the highest in MLB (min. 100 PA). With so many solid pitchers on the mound on Friday, the first base position is not as loaded as is typical, but Encarnacion has big upside with the platoon advantage over Yankees lefty Jaime Garcia. Garcia’s high 55.4% ground ball rate and low 29.5% hard hit rate to righties would typically be cause for concern, but as we’ve seen, Encarnacion thrives against ground ballers. He’s firmly in play as a cash game first baseman.
9. Since the All-Star break, only three players have a .431+ wOBA and .371+ ISO – Nolan Arenado, Bryce Harper, and … Lucas Duda. Duda is a notoriously streaky hitter, and he’s clearly in the midst of a pretty epic hot streak. Even better, his recent trade to the Rays has resulted in a better lineup spot, as he’s been slotted second in their order for the past few games. Because of his recent success, Duda is a bit expensive across the industry, but his price enhances his tournament viability in a winnable matchup against Milwaukee righty Brandon Woodruff, who is making his major league debut. And if you need proof of Duda’s upside, consider that only Giancarlo Stanton (16), Edwin Encarnacion (16), and both Davises (Khris and Chris, with 13 apiece) have more multi-homer games than Duda’s 12 since 2014.
10. Matt Chapman has nine barrels since the All-Star break; only Bryce Harper (11) and Anthony Rizzo (10) have more (and for those not familiar, a “barrel” is a Statcast term given to balls hit with essentially the ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle). Now, just to be clear: nobody is arguing that Chapman is anything close to Harper or Rizzo in terms of overall skill. But his power is real, and he’s dirt cheap across the industry. The power comes with a high 28.2% strikeout rate against righties (he’ll face Angels’ righty Troy Scribner on Friday), but that’s a small price to pay for a player with a .270 ISO versus righties who comes at the near minimum. If paying up for pitcher (and it’ll be hard not to with so many elite pitchers like Paxton, deGrom, and Darvish taking the hill on Friday), Chapman is a salary saver that will make lineup construction much easier.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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