10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, April 20th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, April 20th.
Friday, April 20th
1. Since 2017, Max Scherzer has started 35 games; after mowing down 11 Rockies in his last outing, Scherzer now has double-digit strikeouts in 18 of his 35 outings dating back to last season. That’s right – at this stage in his career, Scherzer is more likely to strike out 10 or more than he is to fall short of that number. (That’s how math works, isn’t it?). Yes, we have an enticing Coors Field matchup between the Cubs and Rockies on Friday’s slate, and yes, there are a few other excellent spots for offenses (hello, Astros against James Shields…). But in cash games, we’re searching for the most likely path to a big game, and there’s nothing more predictable than Max Scherzer striking a bunch of guys out, then pacing around like a madman. Lock him into your cash games and go from there.
2. Since joining the Astros, Justin Verlander has posted a 13.8% swinging strike rate over nine regular season starts; that’s the highest mark over any nine-game stretch of Verlander’s career. Take a look:
The uptick in swinging strikes and strikeouts has corresponded nicely with increased slider usage – he’s raised his usage on the pitch every year since 2010, culminating in this year’s 25.12% usage. Verlander may not maintain his current 33.7% strikeout rate over a full season, but it’s not unreasonable to assume he can keep it near 30.0% routinely posted by guys like Scherzer, Sale, Kluber, and Kershaw. In a matchup against the White Sox and their high 24.8% strikeout rate against righties for the year, Verlander makes for a nice pivot off Max Scherzer – the default SP1 nearly anytime he takes the mound – at a likely lower ownership.
3. Noah Syndergaard had a 24.75% swinging strike rate in his last start – that’s 25 swinging strikes out of 101 pitches thrown, tied with Shohei Ohtani for most by a pitcher in a single game this year. That’s the same number of swinging strikes Aaron Nola has all season. start showed what peak Syndergaard looks like: tons of strikeouts (eight consecutive batters and 11 total in that game, actually), unreal movement on his pitches, and a general feeling of hopelessness and despair for anyone forced to step into the batter’s box. What gets lost in all the strikeouts and dazzling pitches is the fact that Syndergaard keeps the ball on the ground; he’s the only pitcher since 2015 with a 50.0% ground ball rate and 29.0% strikeout rate. The Braves are rarely a team to pick on in DFS simply because of their high-contact approach -in a small sample this year, Preston Tucker and Dansby Swanson are the only regulars with strikeout rates above league average. Still, Syndergaard, like Scherzer and Sale and Kluber and Kershaw, is a pitcher whose strikeout upside transcends matchup.
4. Only two pitchers in MLB are riding an active four-game streak of seven or more strikeouts with two or fewer earned runs allowed (and they both pitch on Friday’s slate). The first – Max Scherzer – is about as predictable as they come. The other pitcher is a bit more surprising. It’s Cleveland’s DFS-hating right-hander, Trevor Bauer. Bauer’s first four starts have been a continuation of his stellar end of 2018, when he maintained a 2.77 ERA with a 24.7% strikeout rate over his final eight starts. His strikeout projection should get a boost on Friday, as he faces an Orioles time that whiffs at a 28.5% clip against right-handed pitching this year, the highest rate in MLB. Baltimore’s 61 wRC+ against righties ranks 29th in MLB, as well, and while the Orioles have too much talent for that abysmal figure to hold, it’s certainly encouraging, especially since Bauer isn’t priced in the bargain bin any longer ($9,400 at DK, $9,000 at FanDuel). Bauer always feels more like a tournament play, but there’s no denying his immense upside in this matchup.
5. On the other side of the same game, meet Dylan Bundy, Baltimore’s new ace. Bundy has begun his 2018 campaign doing something no Orioles pitchers has ever done, posting four consecutive games with seven more more strikeouts and two or fewer earned runs. Bundy’s newfound ace-dom can be largely attributed to his slider, which is simply one of the best pitches in baseball right now. He’s getting 29.41% swings and misses on the pitch against righties, the most of any pitcher in MLB. “Against righties” is a key phrase, unfortunately, because Bundy has always had wide platoon splits; since 2016, he’s allowed a .334 wOBA to lefties, compared to a .274 mark against righties. With the Indians likely rolling out a lefty-heavy lineup, Bundy probably carries too much risk for cash games. However, he’s priced to buy at DraftKings at just $8,000, making him worth rostering in tournaments.
6. Anthony Rizzo has failed to record an extra-base hit in his last 10 games at Coors Field; that’s the longest active streak in MLB. Does it matter? Probably not. Nor does Rizzo’s slow start; so far this season, he has the fourth-largest differential between his xwOBA (.363) and actual wOBA (.217), not to mention the fourth-largest gap between xSLG (.481) and actual slugging (.194). In other words, all signs point to Rizzo bouncing back, and though he’s expensive, against a righty in Coors, he has to be considered one of the top overall hitters of Friday’s slate. While Jon Gray isn’t a pitcher we normally target – even at Coors – at just $4,000 at FanDuel, his salary is more than reasonable.
7. Carlos Santana has 19 hard hit balls (95+ MPH) that have resulted in outs, second-most in MLB (D.J. LeMahieu, 21); the following players have 19 or fewer hard hit balls overall for the season: Giancarlo Stanton, Yoenis Cespedes, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Correa, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Josh Donaldson, Paul Goldschmidt … you get the idea. Santana has been incredibly unlucky, hitting the ball hard repeatedly and, repeatedly, getting called out. True, Santana is often shifted against (part of the reason why he tends to be so much better against fly ball pitchers), but even if we limit the search to only fly balls and line drives, Santana has still been sent back to the dugout 13 times, tied with Joey Gallo for most in MLB. Santana’s price is slowly decreasing, which means it’s time to buy and reap the rewards once the variance evens out.
8. In the Statcast Era (since 2015), Nelson Cruz has 67 barrels against left-handed pitching. That’s most in MLB over that span, and it’s not even close, at 19 more barrels than second-place Giancarlo Stanton. The 19-barrel gap between Cruz and Stanton is the same between Stanton and the group of three players (Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Miguel Sano) that is tied for 50th on the list with 27 barrels over that stretc. “Cruz Versus a Lefty” continues to be an autoplay in DFS, and on Friday, he’s priced reasonably at both DraftKings ($4,300) and FanDuel ($3,500).
9. In his last 600 plate appearances, Tommy Pham has a .919 OPS and 30 stolen bases. Here are the only players to post those numbers over a full season in the last five years:
Mike Trout (2012, 2013, 2016)
Jose Altuve (2016, 2017)
Ryan Braun (2012)
Pham continues to be underappreciated, but his average/power/speed combo puts him up with the elite hitting options anytime he’s in a favorable matchup. On Friday, he faces Brandon Finnegan, whose walk rate in the five games he’s started since 2017 is 21.0% (not a typo). Pham should have no trouble getting on base, and given his lofty price tag across the industry, his ownership should be very low. He’s an excellent tournament option for Friday’s slate.
10. Christian Yelich has four straight seasons of .282 average and at least 9 steals. Here are the others to do it (min. 273 PA) since 2013: Trout, Goldschmidt, Altuve. That’s it. Obviously, Yelich is on the low end of that group in nearly any hitting metric that matters, but like Pham, Yelich provides stability with his bat-to-ball skills and upside with his speed and emerging power skills. He’s in an excellent matchup in a hitter’s park against Marlins right-handed Trevor Richards. Like Pham, he’s not the most appealing play from a point-per-dollar standpoint; he’s expensive, so he should be reserved for tournaments. However, as a one-off, Yelich’s upside is tremendous in this spot.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!