10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, May 11th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, May 11th.
Friday, May 11th
1. After his masterful May 1st start against the Yankees, Justin Verlander has struck out at least nine batters in his first four starts of the season at home. This is significant. Why? Because if he manages to fan nine or more Rangers at home on Friday, he’ll be just the fourth pitcher in MLB history to open the season with five games of 9+ strikeouts. The others to do it are pretty good: Pedro Martinez (six such games in 2001, five in 1999), Curt Schilling (five in 1998), and Nolan Ryan (five in 1978). The matchup certainly makes this seem like a real possibility: the Rangers fan at a 26.2% clip against righties, third-highest in MLB. On top of that, they’ve allowed an MLB-high 10 pitchers to reach the 9-K threshold (including Verlander himself, who struck out 11 in Texas on April 15th). Given the matchup, Verlander has to be considered one of the top overall options on the slate – “one of” because there are a few other pretty good pitchers that you may have heard of – Max Scherzer and Chris Sale – taking the mound.
2. Games of 10+ strikeouts since 2016:
Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino (combined) – 21
Max Scherzer – 20
I’ve gotta admit – it’s getting tough to find new ways of saying Max Scherzer is a beast in the strikeout department. But here we are, and Max is set to mow down the Diamondbacks, who are close to the Rangers in their strikeout tendencies against righties (24.8%, sixth-highest rate in MLB). With the humidor likely working to keep balls in the yard, Scherzer’s one weakness is mitigated, making him one of the top overall points of the day, right alongside Verlander and Sale. If pressed (which I guess I am, since I’m writing…), I’d prefer Scherzer given the slightly higher ceiling, with Verlander just a tick below Scherzer. As for Sale, the hitter’s park and slightly worse matchup against Toronto is enough for me to rank him just a tick below Scherzer and Verlander.
3. Trevor Bauer is riding a nine-game streak of at least six strikeouts and three or fewer earned runs allowed dating back to September 22nd of last year; it’s the longest active streak in MLB, and it’s reasonable proof that the inconsistency that once plagued Bauer is a thing of the past. Let’s be clear: Bauer is due for some regression, as the .239 BABIP he’s carrying on a high 36.5% hard hits isn’t likely to continue. On Friday, Bauer finds himself in a good matchup against the punchless Royals, who rank in the bottom third of MLB in wOBA (.310) and ISO (.134) against right-handed pitching. His recent success is baked into his hefty price tag ($11,300 at DraftKings, $9,500 at FanDuel) may make him a “victim of the slate” (to steal a phrase from Dean Shavelson), as it’ll be tough to fade the top three arms for minimal savings. However, there is upside here if you need the extra cash to fit in an extra Coors bat or two.
4. Luke Weaver has allowed 18 earned runs over his last four starts…on a 27.4% hard hit rate. That hard hit rate is roughly the same as that of Aaron Nola and Luis Severino over that span. Sure, there are other factors contributing to Weaver’s disappointing 2018 season, namely his inability to get ahead in the count: his 56.1% first-pitch strike rate ranks 79th of 90 qualified pitchers. But it is encouraging that even through Weaver’s struggles, he’s maintained the ability to limit hard hit balls. But not to bury the lede here; Weaver is in the ideal “get right” matchup, as he’ll take on a Padres team with MLB’s highest strikeout rate against righties (27.5%) and that ranks 28th in wOBA (.287) and 29th in ISO (.119). Weaver is priced down due to his recent struggles ($7,900 at DraftKings, an even cheaper $5,900 at FanDuel), which makes him an ideal SP2 candidate to pair with one of the big three.
5. Jake Arrieta has two strikeouts in his last three starts; the last time he had two or fewer strikeouts in three straight was back in 2010, for his third, fourth, and fifth career starts in MLB. At the same time, Arrieta is inducing a career-high 60.4% ground balls on an insane 17.6% hard hits. He’s abandoned his once-devastating slider in favor of a sinker that he’s using 65.2% of the time this year, and he’s simply transformed himself from a pitcher with above average strikeouts to a purely ground ball specialist. These types of pitchers have more value in real life than in DFS, so until Arrieta proves he’s concerned with his strikeouts, he’s an easy fade, even at his increasingly reduced price.
6. It’s time for some blind resume! Let’s put two players’ numbers since 2017 side by side and see what we can glean:
Player A: .286/.364/.518 slash line, .232 ISO, .375 wOBA, 36.4% hard hits, 139 wRC+,
Player B: .285/.361/.523 slash line, .238 ISO, .374 wOBA, 36.6% hard hits, 139 wRC+
Wow – these players are nearly identical, at least in terms of this list of DFS-relevant stats. Player A is George Springer, widely regarded as one of the game’s best young hitters. It might surprise you to learn that Player B is the perpetually underrated Mitch Haniger, who is having a power surge in 2018 thanks to an increased average exit velocity (87.4 MPH in 2017; 93.3 in 2018) and launch angle (10.6 degrees in 2017; 17.6 in 2018). While “Cruz vs. A Lefty” has long been a thing in DFS, Nelson Cruz may not even be the best hitter on his team anymore. Haniger has a stellar .439 wOBA and .262 ISO against lefties in a small sample this year, and he’s in a plus matchup against Detroit’s Matt Boyd.
7. Players with .315 ISO and 39.0% hard hits against right-handed pitchers this year (min. 100 PA): Harper, Gregorious, Trout, Haniger, and … Travis Shaw. Shaw is improving as a hitter each year, as evidenced by his steady increase in wRC+ against righties. Take a look:
2016 – 94
2016 – 99
2017 – 127
2018 – 149
At $4,300, Shaw (like many of the Brewers) feels just a bit too cheap at DraftKings, making them priority bats for cash games.
8. Only four players have averaged 99 MPH on liners or fly balls against righties since 2017: Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Matt Olson. On Friday, Olson and rest of the Athletics lefties can take their best shots at the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium. While a matchup with Sonny Gray may not seem ideal on the surface, it’s worth noting that 2018 Sonny Gray has not been the solid arm we’ve seen in the past: he’s seen a rise walks and a dip in strikeouts, is allowing more fly balls and liners, and is allowing more hard contact. Olson is always better suited for tournaments given his high strikeouts (36.4% this year…ouch). But if you’re home run hunting, you could do much worse at just $3,600 at DraftKings.
9. Since the calendar turned to May, Rafael Devers has a 97.8 MPH aEV, second only to Giancarlo Stanton (99.1 MPH). It may be dangerous to put too much stock into exit velocities over small samples, but it certainly can’t hurt that Devers has been unleashing Stanton-esque power into unsuspecting baseballs all month. He’s cheap at DraftKings at just $3,800, and with Travis Shaw and Nolan Arenado expected to draw heavy ownership, Devers makes for an interesting pivot, particularly if he hits in the heart of Boston’s order.
10. There are 15 players in MLB with a hard hit rate above 47.0%; Marcell Ozuna’s 6.7% HR/FB rate ranks dead last of that group. Ozuna has a measly two homers to show despite the fact that his hard hit rate currently stands at a career-high 47.1%, as well as the fact that he’s pulling the ball 44.6% of the time, up 5.5 percentage points from last season. He’s hitting more grounders, which isn’t ideal, but we shouldn’t let that obscure the fact that when he is lifting the ball, he’s been a victim of bad luck. We should expect this to turn around soon, and given his decreased price across the industry and his positive matchup against Padres lefty Eric Lauer, now is the time to buy before the positive regression hits.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!