10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 22nd
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Thursday, June 22nd.
1. Since entering the league in 2015, Aaron Nola has been dominant against right-handed hitters, with a 27.2% strikeout rate and a 2.75 xFIP. Here are the other pitchers who have posted those numbers against righties during that stretch (min. 134 IP): Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard, Max Scherzer, Andrew Miller. With Dexter Fowler leaving on Wednesday with quad tightness and listed as day-to-day, Nola may only have to navigate two lefties (Matt Carpenter, Greg Garcia). If you’re playing the early slate, you’re playing Carlos Martinez, as he takes on a Phillies team that he just put up one of the best pitching performances of the season against (complete game, four-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts and no walks). Beyond CarMart, Nola’s affordable price tag across the industry makes him a worthy complement as an SP2, or as a tournament option that will allow you to fit in Coors Field bats at FanDuel.
2. Here are Chase Anderson’s HR/FB rates during his four years in MLB: 13.6% in 2014, 11.1% in 2015, 14.9% in 2016, 7.4% in 2017. It’s clear which of these is the outlier, especially since he’s sporting a career-high 41.8% fly ball rate. However, he may be able to hold off regression for at least one more start. Anderson has historically been a reverse splits pitcher (.353 career wOBA and 34.3% hard hits vs. RHB, .304 and 29.1% hard hits vs. LHB), and outside of Andrew McCutchen, the Pirates don’t have much in the way of right-handed power. Furthermore, the Pirates rank 26th in MLB with a .147 ISO against right-handed pitchers and 29th with an .146 ISO against fly ball pitchers. If you don’t believe in Nola, Anderson makes some sense as an SP2 on the early slate; just know that sooner or later, he’s going to get tagged for some home runs.
3. Luis Severino is in the midst of a breakout campaign in his third season in MLB, posting a 2.99 ERA and 27.7% strikeout rate through 13 starts; prior to Severino, the only Yankees pitcher to post a sub-3.00 ERA and a K% above 27.0% in a season was David Cone in 1997 (2.82 ERA, 27.6 K%). Severino is essentially the Carlos Martinez of the main slate, the pitcher who is so far ahead of the pack that you’re essentially forced to play him, at least in cash games. His matchup against the Angels isn’t quite as pristine as Martinez’s against the Phillies, but the Angels do rank in the bottom six in MLB in both wOBA and ISO, and it’s worth noting those numbers include Mike Trout contributions for most of the season.
4. Jaime Garcia has the seventh-highest ground ball rate in MLB at 56.5 percent; the San Francisco Giants have a .642 OPS against ground ball pitchers this year, which ranks dead last in MLB. For some context, that’s the rough equivalent of the career OPS of Darwin Barney (Barney was at .635 prior to last night’s random home run, but you get the idea). San Francisco also ranks 29th in MLB in wOBA (.291) and is tied for last in ISO (.118). It’s never fun to click Jaime Garcia, but on an ugly pitching slate like Saturday’s, he’s actually safe enough for cash games.
5. In 2015 and 2016, Jake Arrieta pitched five innings in every start. in 2017, Arrieta hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning on four occasions, including each of his last two. It’s been an off year for the 2015 Cy Young Award winner, but even so, it’s worth noting that his SIERA, strikeout rate, and walk rate are all improved over last year’s numbers. The reason for Arrieta’s sudden downfall has been, in part, his decreased ground ball rate; after posting high ground ball rates of 56.2% in 2015 and 52.6% in 2016, he’s down to 43.8% this year. The case for Arrieta as a cash game option for Thursday’s late slate resides in the fact that the Marlins are an average team against righties (17th in wOBA, 23rd in ISO, 15th in wRC+) that hits the ball into the ground often; their 49.3% ground ball rate against righties is highest in MLB.
6. Since 2015, Nelson Cruz has 54 barrels against left-handed pitching (and for those unfamiliar, a “barrel” is a Statcast term for a ball that is hit with basically the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle); the next-highest player (Chris Carter) has 38. The 16-barrel gap between first-place Cruz and second-place Carter is the same that exists between Carter and the group of players who are tied for 47th on the list (Hanley, Yoenis, A-Rod, Dozier, with 22 barrels each). Cruz’s 54 barrels is three more than Miguel Cabrera (27) and Paul Goldschmidt (24) combined. So, that’s essentially a new way of saying something everyone in DFS knows: Nelson Cruz is an auto-play almost any time he’s up against a lefty. On Thursday, he faces Detroit southpaw Daniel Norris. Although Norris’s fly ball rate to righties is nearly 15 percentage points lower than against lefties this year (50.0% FB rate vs. LHB, 35.1% FB rate vs. RHB), we can probably chalk that up to small sample, and I’m not sure it even matters. Cruz is one of the top overall hitters of the main slate.
7. In the month of June, Francisco Lindor has one strikeout in 33 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Lindor has been better against lefties this season (126 wRC+ vs. LHP, 94 wRC+ vs. RHP), and on Thursday, he gets the Orioles’ very hittable southpaw Wade Miley. He’s the top overall shortstop play for Thursday’s main slate, and while he doesn’t exactly come at a discount, it shouldn’t be too difficult to fit him in given the lack of high-end pitching.
8. Since 2015, Logan Forsythe is one of seven qualified hitters with a .380+ wOBA and a .240+ ISO against left-handed pitching. You may recognize the names of the other players on that list: Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, George Springer, Kris Bryant, and Adrian Beltre. Forsythe has a difficult matchup against Mets lefty Steven Matz (career .295 wOBA vs. RHB), but he’ll likely bat leadoff, and he’s severely underpriced across the industry, and at DraftKings, his multi-position eligibility makes him a near must-play.
9. Another underpriced Dodgers bat who mashes lefties and is worth considering is Kike Hernandez, who ranks third in MLB this year with a .414 ISO against lefties. The two players who rank .ahead of him are Nolan Arenado (.459) and Giancarlo Stanton (.451).
10. Here are Mike Zunino home runs by month this year: zero in April, one in May, eight in June. Zunino’s comically high .375 batting average this month is in no way an indication that Zunino has changed or improved as a hitter; this is still an all-or-nothing batter who has struck out at a 35.5% clip. But he is hitting the ball harder than ever before, as evidenced by his career-high 41.1% hard hit rate. He’s the epitome of a boom-or-bust tournament play against Detroit lefty Daniel Norris, and since the catcher position is typically so barren, he’s not even a crazy cash game play.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to keep the discussion going!
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