10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for May 21st
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Saturday, May 21, 2016.
1. Last night, Josh Donaldson went yard for the first time since May 1, ending a 16-game homer drought, his longest homerless stretch since July 2013. During that stretch, he saw his wOBA drop more than 70 points (from .434 to .361), his ISO drop over 130 points (from .374 to .241), and his wRC+ drop by 56 points (from 187 to 129). On Saturday, he finds himself in an ideal spot against Pat Dean, a 26-year-old, unproven lefty making just his third appearance and first start in the big leagues. In case you’re new to DFS, or if you just need a reminder (understandable, given Donaldson’s recent funk), fading Josh Donaldson against a lefty when he’s affordable ($3700 at FanDuel tomorrow!) is not something that smart people do – his career .303 ISO in that split ranks fourth all-time behind only Mark McGwire (.342 ISO), Giancarlo Stanton (.321), and Frank Thomas (.313).
2. The 2016 version of Brian Dozier is hitting everything softly – his 86.1 mph average exit velocity is the same as a pair of slap-hitting Mariners, Nori Aoki and Ketel Marte. For some context, Cameron Rupp, this year’s leader in exit velocity (96.0 mph) is hitting the ball, on average, 10 mph faster than Dozier. That’s the same difference between a Noah Syndergaard fastball (98.0 mph) and a Bartolo Colon fastball (88.0 mph).
3. The Twins are often cited as being dangerous against lefties because of some of their big right-handed bats (Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Miguel Sano). They’ve hit three home runs against lefties this year, the fewest in the league, and yes, that includes the Braves, who have hit a whopping seven HRs against lefties in 2016. Okay, it’s not all that whopping, but it shows just how little power the Twins have displayed against lefties this year.
4. Jacob deGrom is the heavy favorite in a plus matchup on Saturday, as he faces a Brewers team that strikes out at a 26.6% clip against right-handed pitchers, the highest rate in MLB. Here’s the bad news: deGrom’s 5.75 K/9 ranks 121st of 134 starters (minimum 30 IP) this year. The obvious culprit is a sharp decline in fastball velocity (95.0 mph in 2015, 92.5 mph in 2016). This has resulted in deGrom simply being unable to put hitters away once he gets ahead in the count – his K% after an 0-1 count in 2014 was at 33.1%, and in 2015 it was 33.9%. In 2016, it’s been almost cut in half and stands 18.1%. Not only that, but he’s allowing a disproportionate amount of hits after being ahead 0-1, largely due to an increase in BABIP in those situations. In 2014, his batting average allowed after 0-1 counts was .199 (on a .293 BABIP); in 2015, he allowed a .194 average in that split (on a .281 BABIP). In 2016? He’s allowing a .284 average on a .339 BABIP, which is sure to regress in the near future, and that’s the good news. One more bit of good news: deGrom is still getting first strikes 68.0% of the time – that’s the sixth best mark in the majors, and the same rate as Clayton Kershaw. My guess is that, in this start, deGrom starts to figure it out, resulting in a slight uptick in his strikeouts moving forward.
5. One player not lacking in the strikeout department is Jose Fernandez, a K machine who has fanned 47 of the 103 right-handed batters he’s faced in 2016 for a 45.6 K%, the best in the majors. The high strikeout rate is due, in part, to his ability to get hitters to chase bad pitches and do nothing with them. In 2016, Fernandez has allowed just a 39.7% contact rate on pitches outside the zone, the best mark in baseball. For context, Phil Hughes allows an MLB-high 83.6 O-contact%, meaning hitters are more than twice as likely to make contact on a Phil Hughes pitch outside the zone than one thrown by Jose Fernandez. Not exactly a revelation, I know, but still sort of funny.
6. Of course, Fernandez’s tendency to try and make hitters chase has led to an inflated walk rate in 2016. He’s allowed 3+ walks in six of his eight starts this year, a mark that is tied for the most by any pitcher in baseball. The 2016 version of Fernandez is best-deployed against undisciplined teams who swing at bad pitches, don’t walk much, and don’t generate a lot of contact. His opponent on Saturday, the Nationals, are none of those things. In fact, they’re among the six best teams in MLB in walk rate (10.0%), contact rate (79.5%), and swinging-strike rate (9.0%). Despite all this, he’s a difficult fade on Saturday given his unparalleled upside.
7. If Billy Hamilton can get on base (which is always a big if), it could be off to the races. Felix Hernandez has allowed 40 steals since 2014 (not Jon Lester territory, but not ideal, either), 10th-most in MLB. With a lefty on the mound for Cincinnati (John Lamb), Hernandez’s catcher should be Chris Iannetta, whose 20 steals allowed this year are second only to the 29 allowed by Jonathan Lucroy.
8. Since 2015, Jake Lamb has a 38.9% hard contact rate against RHP, tied for 17th in the majors…with his teammate Paul Goldschmidt. Lamb does his best work against flyball pitchers (.202 ISO, .272 average vs. FB pitchers, compared to .145 ISO, .212 average vs. GB pitchers), and his opponent on Saturday, Mike Leake, is an extreme ground ball pitcher. Still, Lamb’s been hot lately with a pair of homers and multi-hit games in his past four, and his price remains affordable across the industry.
9. Only David Ortiz (16.8%) and Manny Machado (15.4%) have a higher extra-base hit percentage than the Cardinals’ Aledmys Diaz (15.1%). If Diaz’s recent move to second in the Cardinals’ batting order sticks, he’s in a great spot on Saturday, as he’ll have the platoon advantage over Arizona lefty Robbie Ray.
10. The Mariners are in homer-friendly Great American Ballpark against a lefty in Cincinnati’s John Lamb, which, of course, means it’s time to fire up Nelson Cruz (187 wRC+ against LHP since 2015 is the best in MLB). But if you’re stacking up Mariners (which should be a popular play in GPPs), don’t leave out Kyle Seager, despite the lefty/lefty matchup. Since the start of 2015, Kyle Seager has hit 17 home runs against left-handed pitchers. That mark is second in MLB, trailing only – you guessed it – his teammate Nelson Cruz (18). Just to put that into perspective, Seager has hit more homers against LHP than noted lefty mashers like Donaldson (12), Mark Trumbo (16), Todd Frazier (16), Mike Trout (11), Giancarlo Stanton (11), Nolan Arenado (10), Paul Goldschmidt (9)…the list goes on. He can do just fine against lefties. But even if you just can’t bring yourself to play a lefty hitter against a lefty pitcher, consider: the Reds have just one southpaw in their bullpen, Tony Cingrani, who threw 14 pitches last night and might not see the field on Saturday.
Thanks for reading. Good luck on Saturday, Grinders!