10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Sunday, August 4th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Sunday, August 3rd.
1. Justin Verlander has a 2.73 ERA despite allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings. It’s a combination that is almost unfathomable, and in fact, the next-lowest ERA for a player with a 1.7+ HR/9 was the 3.56 mark Mike Fiers had in 2018. In other words, we can essentially ignore the fact that Justin Verlander may give up a home run or two to the Mariners and just focus on the good stuff: the always high strikeouts, the minimal walks, the run prevention, the fact that he’s in his home park (where he’s pitched to a 2.47 ERA and averaged 27.3 DraftKings points per game since joining the Astros). And even so, Verlander has been better at limiting the long ball as of late, in part because he’s cut down on the usage of his most homer-prone pitch, his four-seam fastball. He’s thrown the pitch less than 45 percent of the time in each of the last two starts and has kept the ball in the yard in each of those starts. Kind of amazingly, it’s the first time all year he’s gone consecutive starts without allowing a home run. Two starts is certainly not a trend, but it is worth monitoring, and if Verlander’s decreased fastball usage continues, the home run “problem” may be eradicated. There are several interesting pitching options on Sunday’s slate, but don’t kid yourself: Verlander is the guy if you want to reach up to the high end at pitcher.
2. Since 2018, Patrick Corbin has recorded 300 strikeouts on his slider; that’s 71 more than second-place Jakob Junis (219). In fact, only two other players (Junis and Chris Sale at 209) have 200 strikeouts on their slider over that span. Corbin’s slider always gives him big strikeout upside, and if you’re looking for a pitcher who could match Verlander’s strikeout total, Corbin likely has the best shot. Verlander gets the edge in terms of matchup, however, as the Dbacks – even sans Paul Goldschmidt – are no joke against lefties. Their .217 ISO against southpaws is fourth-best in MLB, and they only strike out 20.8 percent of the time against lefties. Of course, this only matters if you play on a slate that includes the late afternoon games (shoutout to Yahoo players). If you do play at Yahoo, Corbin is really cheap at just $47, and I love the idea of pairing him and Verlander for cash games (something you can actually do while still rostering a decent stable of hitters at Yahoo).
3. In his most recent start, Shane Bieber had 8 strikeouts and just 1 walk in a brutal matchup against the Astros. It was the ninth time he’d struck out 8 or more while issuing 1 or fewer free pass this year, which ties him with Gerrit Cole for third-most in MLB (Matt Boyd and Max Scherzer have 10 such games apiece). In fact, only three Indians pitchers have ever had nine games of 8+ walks and 1 or fewer walks across a full season: Corey Kluber (2014, 2015, 2017), Carlos Carrasco (2017, 2018), and C.C. Sabathia (2007). Bieber has answered the call for the Indians, and his emergence was a big reason why Cleveland felt comfortable dealing Trevor Bauer and loading up on hitting (much, much, much more on Cleveland hitters in the coming notes…). It’s tough to count on eight strikeouts in this one, as the Angels aren’t a strikeout-heavy opponent; they only strike out at a 19.0 percent clip against righties, the second-lowest rate against righties in MLB. But wait…who’s that with the lowest strikeout rate in MLB against righties? The Astros, of course, who Bieber just recorded 8 Ks against. So it could happen. He’s not as likely to post a big K game as Verlander, but he’s certainly a tournament play. And if you still don’t believe the upside is there, consider this: Bieber is the only pitcher not named to post 40 DraftKings points three times in 2019.
4. Yu Darvish has the second-lowest hard-hit rate in MLB at 28.4 percent, behind only Stephen Strasburg. Amidst his up-and-down season, somehow this isn’t talked about much, but the guy is really, really good at inducing weak contact. The problem for Darvish all year has been simply keeping the ball in the yard. He hasn’t allowed a multi-homer game in four straight starts, a stretch over which he’s posted a 32.6 percent strikeout rate against just 2.2 percent walks, a 2.93 SIERA, and 21.1 percent hard hits. Nobody is making good contact against him. That’s why at $9,000 at DraftKings and $8,300 at FanDuel, he’s a great buy, even against a scary Brewers offense led by Christian Yelich.
5. Prior to 2019, Drew Smyly didn’t have a curveball in his repertoire; now, he’s throwing his Uncle Charlie 27.9 of the time. This matters, because the White Sox projected lineup has been terrible against left-handed curves since 2016 (albeit in a small sample. Over that stretch, the league average wOBA for hitters against left-handed curveballs sits at .258. The White Sox projected lineup has only one hitter (Jose Abreu) above that mark (and not by much – Abreu is at .278). Take a look at their numbers against the pitch, per PlateIQ:
Smyly has been excellent in his first two starts in Philadelphia, allowing just one earned run while striking out 13 and walking 3 across 13 innings. At DraftKings in particular, where he’s only $6,600, he makes an ideal SP2 candidate.
6. In the second half, Jose Ramirez has 17 extra-base hits (7 home runs, 10 doubles)…and 11 strikeouts. In other words, he’s Jose Ramirez again, racking up extra-base hits all over the place while rarely being sat down on strikes. He’s also still running plenty with 22 swiped bags on the year, and in fact, since 2018, he’s the only player in MLB with 50 steals and 50 home runs. On Sunday, the switch-hitting Ramirez faces Angels righty Jaime Barria. Although Ramirez has preferred lefties this year, for his career, Ramirez is a better hitter against right-handed pitching (120 wRC+ vs. RHPs; 111 vs. LHPs). It’s worth noting that Jaime Barria is a reverse splits pitcher, and he’s actually held lefties in check (.284 wOBA allowed for his career), but this is just a bet on a good hitter with contact, power, and speed upside. And Barria’s reverse splits makes the guys in the next two notes all the more interesting…
7. Only one player in MLB has a three-season streak of 20 home runs and 15 steals, and it’s not Ramirez, or Francisco Lindor, or Mookie Betts, or Christian Yelich. All would be good guesses, but in fact, the only player with 20 homers and 15 steals in each season since 2017 is new Cleveland Indian Yasiel Puig. Puig continues to be reasonably priced across the industry ($3,200 at FD; $4,400 at DK; $18 at Yahoo), and like Ramirez, he can put up points in a number of ways. It’s a good matchup, too; Jamie Barria has been abysmal against righties throughout his career, with a .367 wOBA and 1.79 allowed to righties since 2018, both of which rank in the bottom 13 of MLB over that stretch (min. 80 IP).
8. And speaking of Indians bats, you can save some salary with Franmil Reyes. Believe it or not, Reyes is one of only two players (joining former teammate Hunter Renfroe) to post five multi-homer games in 2019. One thing’s for sure; the move to Progressive Field should give Reyes the edge over Renfroe in the power department moving forward. Per Baseball Prospectus’s park factors, Cleveland’s park ranks second in HR factor at Baseball Prospectus, with a 116 rating, or roughly 16 percent better than the average park for right-handed power; PetCo Park ranks 29th with an 87 rating, or 13 percent below the average park. (Over a longer sample, Progressive seems to be closer to average, but PetCo is definitively one of the worst parks in MLB for power righties). While he’s a bargain everywhere given his GPP-breaking upside, Reyes is particularly enticing at FanDuel, where he’s just $2,800.
9. Okay, let’s talk non-Indians players. Only one hitter in MLB (min. 50 PA) has a .320 ISO, 50 percent hard hits, and a sub-15.0 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching in 2019: Alex Bregman. Sure, single-season samples against lefties are always too small, but Bregman has dominated lefties since entering MLB: even in a larger 549-PA sample size for his career, he’s he’s slashing .304/.385/.559. For context, the only players who can match each leg of that slash line this year are Yelich, Bellinger, Tatis, Rendon, and Bogaerts. After one plate appearance against opener Matt Wisler, Bregman should have a couple more PAs against homer-prone lefty Tommy Milone on Saturday. At sub-$4K at FanDuel and sub-$5K at DraftKings, Bregman feels just a bit too cheap on Sunday. He may not be necessary for cash games, but at the very least, he represents major upside given his matchup with homer-prone Tommy Milone (seven HRs allowed in his last 15 1/3 innings pitched) and the porous Mariners bullpen (5.11 FIP, third-worst among MLB bullpens).
10. Noah Syndergaard has allowed 24 steals this year, the most in MLB. Since 2018, he’s allowed 56, 25 more than the next-highest among qualifiers (deGrom at 31), or 19 more than any pitcher (Adam Ottavino and Steven Matz didn’t qualify, but have both allowed 35 steals). Starling Marte has 216 steals since 2013, third-most in MLB behind only Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon. This is nothing more than a deep GPP play, but nobody is going to click Marte’s name with Syndergaard on the hill, and Syndergaard has been far from unhittable this year. If Marte reaches base, he’s going to be running, which opens the door for a potentially huge game at extremely low ownership.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!