10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for Opening Day
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Opening Day.
1. Take a look at the complete list of pitchers to post a sub-1.30 ERA and better than 10 K/9 in their home parks in a season: Nolan Ryan (1972), and Blake Snell (2018). Last year’s AL Cy Young winner was masterful everywhere last season, but he saved his best work for his home confines of Tropicana Field, which is where he finds himself on Opening Day. The matchup is about as tough as it gets, as the Astros led MLB with a 123 wRC+ in 2018, not to mention their 20.1% strikeout rate, third-lowest in MLB. While locking in one of the aces (Verlander, Scherzer, deGrom, depending on which slate you’re playing) is the safer route for cash games, Snell comes at a nice discount. He’s a perpetual threat for double-digit punchouts, even in this matchup, which makes him super enticing for tournaments.
2. With Jose Iglesias now in the starting lineup, the Reds have five Opening Day starters with a sub-16.0% strikeout rates against right-handers last season (Jose Peraza, Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Tucker Barnhart). That, coupled with a huge park downgrade to Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, severely dampens Jameson Taillon upside in his first start of the season. Taillon is a huge favorite among the season-long crowd, which means he could garner decent ownership on Opening Day. For me, he’s a stay-away in all formats.
3. Eric Lauer was a much better pitcher in the second half of 2018, posting an impressive 3.15 ERA (4.87 in the first half) and just a .354 slugging allowed (.478 in the first half). One possible cause? The Padres’ lefty started relying on a pretty good slider, a pitch he rarely used in the early part of the year. It’s a small sample, and there’s some BABIP-fueled good fortune in there, as well, but it’s never a bad thing when a young pitcher starts throwing his best pitch more often. If the pitch is working, Lauer is probably closer to league-average in terms of strikeouts (he was at 22.2% in the second half last year). That’s certainly playable at near minimum price, particularly when he’s pitching in pitcher-friendly PetCo Park against an anemic Giants lineup. Among the cheapies on Opening Day, Lauer is worth considering. But he’s not the only bargain basement guy. Don’t forget…
4. Brad Keller, who allowed just an 86.2 mph average exit velocity on his primary pitch, his two-seam fastball, in 2018. For context: among the 31 pitchers with at least 149 batted ball events against their two-seamers last year, only Miles Mikolas and Jameson Taillon allowed a lower aEV than Keller’s. He’ll generate tons of weak grounders, and it’s possible that he could rack up a handful of strikeouts against a whiff-happy White Sox lineup. For those reasons, he joins Lauer as a possible salary saver on Opening Day.
5. Zack Greinke has allowed just 10 steals in the last three seasons, over 568 ⅔ innings. Given that he’s averaged roughly 6.25 innings per start over that span, that translates to around one steal every nine games. With very few elite hitting spots available on Thursday, you’re almost forced into rostering hitters against good pitchers like Greinke. But it would be wise to tread lightly when looking at Dodgers who rely on their legs for any amount of value (Chris Taylor, A.J. Pollock, Cody Bellinger) given Greinke’s ability to thwart the running game.
6. In DFS, chasing platoon advantages tends to be a pretty solid strategy. We’ve got tons and tons of data showing that, over time, batters tend to perform slightly better against opposite-handed pitchers.
Hyun-Jin Ryu cares not for your tons and tons of data. The Dodgers’ lefty was absolutely dominant against right-handed batters in 2018, joining Patrick Corbin, Chris Sale, and Blake Snell as the only lefties to allow a .260 wOBA or below and strike out more than 29 percent of righties faced. He uses an elite changeup to neutralize righties, which means that even “lefty mashers” like Wilmer Flores (no disrespect to Derek Carty) will struggle to produce against him this year.
7. Javier Baez is known as an aggressive, free swinger who shows little regard for the strike zone. And his reputation is earned: only Salvador Perez swung outside the zone more often than Baez last season. However, last season against left-handed pitchers, Baez had a surprisingly tolerable 18.6% strikeout rate (compared to 28.0% against righties…yeesh). In a matchup with Rangers lefty Mike Minor, Baez’s downside is mitigated, to an extent. The fact that Minor owned an astronomical 47.2% fly ball rate against righties last year means Baez has plenty of upside, as well, making him one of the better spend-up options on a tricky slate for hitting.
8. Had Jesse Winker had the requisite plate appearances to qualify, his .405 on-base percentage last year would’ve ranked sixth in MLB, behind only Trout, Betts, Votto, Turner, and Soto. That’s elite company. In fact, he’s one of only three first- or second-year players since 2003 (min. 300 PA) to post a .400 OBP in a season; the others were Juan Soto (2018) and Aaron Judge (2017). The power is still developing for Winker, but he did make steady progress in terms of hard contact last season before going down with a shoulder injury in July. Check out his hard-hit rates by month last year:
March/April – 35.4%
May – 41.9%
June – 48.4%
July – 52.2%
Winker, like many hitters on an Opening Day slate full of aces, finds himself in a tough matchup. But Jameson Taillon is far worse against opposite-handed hitters – fewer strikeouts, fewer ground balls, more walks – and Winker is an absolute steal at just $3,300 at DraftKings.
9. Corey Dickerson has a .332 average against ground ball pitchers since 2016; that’s a top 10 mark in MLB (min. 300 AB) over that span. His .528 slugging ranks 16th, tied with Kris Bryant and Justin Upton. Dickerson struggles with four-seamers, but against sinkers and two-seamers, he’s very underrated, and has been for some time. While Luis Castillo appears ready to fully break out this season, that doesn’t mean Dickerson can’t make good contact, especially given that Castillo throws a two-seamer fairly often. He’s reasonably priced at $3,800 at DraftKings, putting him in play as a mid-range option for cash games.
10. Against righties last year, Justin Bour homered on 22 percent of his fly balls; against lefties, he homered on 7.4 percent. Here’s some context: Alex Rodriguez had a career HR/FB of 21.8%; Cesar Hernandez has a career HR/FB of 7.4%. Bour is clearly a strong-side platoon guy, and the Marlins and Phillies made the mistake of giving him 147 PAs against lefties last year, which made his overall rate stats (.227/.341/.404) look more unsightly than they might have. The power against right-handers is still clearly there for Bour, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he got hold of one off strike-throwing righty Mike Fiers. On a tough day for the first base position, Bour is squarely in play.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!