10 Notes Sneak Peek: Week 13
Wow. This was a long week.
It was a good one – I got a few days off school, got to spend time with family, got to see relatives, got to sleep past 5:30am for once, and of course, got some DFS in. Probably too much DFS, in fact. I mean, don’t get me wrong; I had a moderately good week in terms of profit, mostly because of NBA (Shoutout to Jamal Murray! Shoutout to Jeremy Lamb!), so obviously it was worth it.
But, wow, was it a long week. Between building lineups for the Thanksgiving slate on Thursday, NBA on Friday and Saturday, and then NFL and NBA on Sunday, I feel like I need to lock my phone in a safe and go take a walk outside (not right now – it’s 12:39am), or read a book (like, a book with pages, not just a bunch of RG articles I’ve been meaning to get to), or listen to some music (music, as in something with a melody and instruments, i.e. something besides The Morning Grind podcast).
Anyone out there ever experience DFS exhaustion? I’m in the thick of it right now. And whenever I get to this point, I try to take a day off, just to recalibrate. It’s not always easy, especially when your phone pings with an alert with the latest injury news. And I have to admit that more than once, I’ve committed to taking a day off, only to get bored halfway through the day and, almost out of habit, pull out my phone and throw a lineup together. But I think it’s important to remember that fantasy sports, whether daily or season-long, are a lot of fun, and if they start to feel like a chore, it’s best to step away for a short period of time.
So that’s what my plan is for tomorrow. That is, unless I get an alert telling me that, according to Doug Pederson, Wendell Smallwood will get the majority of the Eagles carries, or that Christine Michael will be counted on for 12-15 carries.
It’s already started.
All this happened, more or less…
Recapping 10 noteworthy happenings from Sunday’s games.
1. Drew Brees carved up the Rams defense for 310 yards and four passing touchdowns, and he even added a rare touchdown on the ground. It was a handy reminder that, with a full week to analyze and dissect and unpack, sometimes we just overthink it.
At 8.5 percent ownership in the Milly Maker, Brees was severely under-owned across the industry. Next week, he’s got a date at the Superdome with Football Outsiders’ lowest-ranked passing offense in the Detroit Lions, but here’s the rub: at $7,600, he’s DraftKings’ most expensive QB.
2. Brees, with 36.5 DraftKings points, wasn’t the highest-scoring QB on the day. That designation goes to Colin Kaepernick, who became the first player in NFL history to throw for 296 yards and rush for 113 yards, en route to a 37.14 effort at DraftKings. Not too shabby. I mean, it wasn’t enough to help the 49ers overcome the offensive juggernaut that is the Ryan Tannehill-led Dolphins (Kaepernick was stopped two yards shy of a game-winning touchdown with two seconds left), but that’s real life, and we don’t care about real life here.
3. Thumbs? Who needs thumbs? Not LeSean McCoy, who just days ago had surgery to repair his dislocated digit, torched the Jaguars defense for 131 yards and two scores on the ground, adding in 31 receiving yards and a two-point conversion for good measure. If you want proof of how strong recency bias is in NFL DFS, consider that McCoy, one week after being a popular play and letting the whole universe down, was 7.3 percent owned in the DraftKings Milly Maker, just a bit less than one-third the ownership of Rashad Jennings (20.9 percent). Obviously the price difference and McCoy’s injury factored into Jennings being more highly owned than McCoy, but if McCoy hadn’t burned everyone in Week 11, I think it’s safe to assume his ownership would have been much higher.
4. Pinkies? Who needs pinkies? Derek Carr’s pinky was mangled”:https://twitter.com/i/moments/803025753285619712 while he took a snap during the third quarter of the Raiders game against the Panthers. He left for a series, came back wearing a black glove apparently made of morphine, took snaps exclusively out of the shotgun, and led Oakland to a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. No big whoop.
5. If there was any lingering doubt that Michael Thomas, not Brandin Cooks, is Drew Brees favorite target in New Orleans, those doubts should be extinguished after Thomas caught nine of 10 targets for 108 yards and two scores on Sunday. Cooks was targeted exactly the same amount of times as you, or me, or this box of Triscuits I’m eating. Cooks played his usual allotment of snaps, according to Pro Football Focus, and he wasn’t injured. And he received zero targets.
6. Rob Gronkowski’s on-again, off-again relationship with a football field continues. After being declared active on Sunday morning, Gronkowski didn’t make it out of the first quarter before leaving with a back injury. Per Patriots beat writer Pat Volin, Gronkowski was walking “quite gingerly” to the team bus after the game.
7. Shadow coverage matters! I mean, just look at Julio Jones, who was stifled by Patrick Peterson, catching only four passes for 35 yards. But wait – shadow coverage doesn’t matter! That’s why Mike Evans was able to haul in eight of 11 passes for 108 yards and two scores despite being shadowed by Richard Sherman. Man…I don’t know what to believe anymore.
8. David Johnson did David Johnson things. He beat Atlanta the way all running backs beat Atlanta: by catching passes. Johnson caught eight of them for 103 yards a touchdown, and it might not have done you any good, because everybody owned David Johnson. Until his salary hits $10K, it’s going to be difficult to fade him in cash games for the rest of the year.
9. For the third straight week, many of the chalky plays busted: Jay Ajayi, Russell Wilson, Melvin Gordon, Thomas Rawls, Rashad Jennings, Larry Fitzgerald, Doug Baldwin, Amari Cooper, and Gary Barnidge were all buzzed-about plays in Week 12 who failed to meet expectations. And, with the exception of Rashad Jennings, I owned all of them.
10. After rushing for a touchdown, Cam Newton gave the game ball to a young Panthers fan, as he always does. Only this time, since the game was played in Oakland, the kid was surrounded by Raiders fans, one of whom smacked him in the head and tried to take the ball. This is so much worse than what Bartman did, isn’t it?
Snap Judgments for Week 13
First impressions of 10 noteworthy players for Week 13, using DraftKings pricing.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (vs. DET) — $7,600 — Brees is the most expensive QB on the main slate for Week 13, but even so, I think he’ll be the chalk. Detroit has been abysmal against quality QBs this year, allowing Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota, Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins to average 282 yards, 2.75 TDs, and .25 INTs. While we can’t expect another rushing touchdown, 300+ yards and three TDs seems like a virtual lock for Brees against this leaky pass defense.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (vs. HOU) — $6,700 — Yes, the Texans have a stingy pass defense this year (218 yards per game allowed to QBs through Week 12), but they’ve also allowed six passing TDs over the past two weeks, and this is Aaron Rodgers. He’s the sixth-most-expensive QB at DraftKings, which is really why he’s listed here at all; it just feels odd to see so many QBs ranked ahead of a Rodgers when he’s thrown for over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns (not to mention rushing for a score) in the past three weeks.
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (at CHI) — $6,100 — It’s time we start taking Kaepernick seriously as a fantasy option. If you want to pay up for David Johnson, or Antonio Brown, or Le’Veon Bell, paying down at QB makes it much easier. The Bears pass defense is no pushover, but they have intercepted just one pass since Week 7, which mitigates some of the risk in rostering Kaepernick. I expect Kaepernick to be a trendy lower-tier option at QB after his monster performance in Week 12.
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals (vs. WAS) — $9,500 — Johnson has reached Antonio Brown levels, in terms of pricing, and it will be interesting to see if we’ve crossed the tipping point. In Week 12, Johnson faced a bad run defense in a high-total game on the road, and he was priced at $8,900. In Week 13, he’ll face a bad run defense (Washington ranks 26th in rush defense DVOA) in a high-total game (over/under opened at 50.5) at home, and he’s $600 more. I suspect it’ll end up being a “play him in cash but it’s okay to fade him in tournaments” situation, but public opinion on Johnson will be interesting to monitor throughout the week.
Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions (at NO) — $5,800 — New Orleans ranks 29th in receiving DVOA against RBs, and they’ve allowed 40+ receiving yards to RBs six times this year (not to mention allowing 39 receiving yards to Todd Gurley on Sunday). In a pace-up game, the player who has the third-most receptions in the NFL among RBs (Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson rank 1 and 2, respectively) should see a ton of volume through the air. At full PPR sites like DraftKings, it’ll be tough to fade
Wendell Smallwood, Philadelphia Eagles (at CIN) — $4,300 — It’s really tough to identify value on Sunday night. Monday Night Football hasn’t happened, teams haven’t practiced, injury situations are still muddy; there’s just so much that’s not known. But Smallwood has a shot at becoming chalk, depending, of course, on how he performs against Green Bay on Monday night. If he excels, and if Ryan Mathews is out again in Week 13, then we’ve got a starting running back against a bad run defense (the Bengals rank 26th in rush defense DVOA) at $4,300.
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (vs. LAR) — $6,800 — Edelman has an NFL-high 28 targets over the past two weeks, and his price still hasn’t caught up to his production, particularly on full PPR sites. He faces a Rams team that has given up some big games to smaller, shiftier receivers (John Brown – 10 catches for 144 yards; Golden Tate – 8 catches for 165 yards and a TD), and if Rob Gronkowski is out or limited, Edelman should see massive volume once again, making him a near lock for cash games.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints (vs. DET) — $6,900 — You can never project a Drew Brees receiver for much more than six or seven targets, and while it may seem like chasing points a bit, Thomas is the top receiver on a Brees-led offense at home against Football Outsiders’ 32nd-ranked pass defense. In terms of price, he’s joined that second tier of receivers with guys like Jordy Nelson ($7,000), Larry Fitzgerald ($7,100), and Amari Cooper ($7,300); in other words, he’s no longer a bargain. If nothing else, he’ll be fun to include in some Brees / Thomas / Golden Tate tournament stacks.
Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills (at OAK) — $5,500 — Watkins only played on roughly half of Buffalo’s snaps in his return on Sunday, but he caught all three of his targets for 80 yards, including a 62-yarder that should remove some of the lingering doubts about his foot injury, at least for the time being. Tyrod Taylor has nobody else to throw to, and the injury has depressed Watkins’s price tag enough that he could be worth a flyer against the Raiders (24th in pass defense DVOA) in Week 13.
Malcolm Mitchell (New England Patriots (vs. LAR) — $3,600 — Mitchell was targeted seven times on Sunday, second only to Julian Edelman among Pats wideouts. He converted them into five catches for 46 yards and two scores, and he’s drawn the praise of Angry Tom Brady, who says his “personality is infectious.” It’s not Flacco and Pitta, but we may have a burgeoning BFF situation here. Again, it’s early, and more value will certainly open up, but at this low price, Mitchell is interesting as a salary saver for Week 13.
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Thanks for reading! All stats from this article were pulled from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and FootballGuys.com.
Be sure to check out “10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes” for NFL Week 13, which will be published on Thursday. Good luck this week!