10 Notes: Week 8 Sneak Peek

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Every so often, we’ll get a glimpse of how bizarre the world daily fantasy sports is. When you’re entrenched in the daily grind of DFS, it’s easy to forget that “sports” and “daily fantasy sports” are two completely different spheres. More specifically, it’s easy to forget that daily fantasy is still somewhat of a niche activity, and not everybody is in this weird bubble.

You might get a glimpse of how different these two worlds are when you’re talking to friends about, say, the huge week that Mike Evans had in Week 7. You say, “Yeah, I had nearly 100 percent exposure to him this week!” and realize that only one person in that conversation cares about your exposure to Mike Evans. You might have caught a glimpse of it when Trevor Bauer blocked you on Twitter for mentioning fantasy sports. Either way, it’s not a bad thing to be reminded, every once in a while, that “sports” and “daily fantasy sports” don’t always intersect as much as we might think.

Week 7 afforded us one of those reminders, and it came in the form of Mike Gillislee.

Gillislee is a former fifth-round pick of the Miami Dolphins out of the Florida who, as a member of the Bills, is on his third team in less than four years as a pro. Prior to Week 7, Gillislee had just 17 carries this year, and, to most of the sports-watching world, he was “just a guy.” A fill-in. After all, there were larger issues at stake: whether “Angry Brady” and the Pats would continue to wreak Tarantino-esque revenge on the rest of the league, whether the Vikings would remain undefeated, whether the Steelers would be able to survive post-Big-Ben. To casual fans, Gillislee was an afterthought.

To the DFS world, Gillislee was the lynchpin for millions of dollars’ worth of lineups across the industry. Everything hinged on whether or not this “fill-in” would actually “fill in” for a hobbled LeSean McCoy, who had injured his hamstring the week before in practice. First McCoy was listed as a “game-time decision,” then he was “questionable,” then he was “walking and running on the hamstring a bit gingerly,” then he would be playing in a “limited role.” It was dizzying keeping up with the twists and turns in the story. All this hoopla over…Mike Gillislee.

That’s bizarre, right?

But it makes perfect sense. If Gillislee was in line for, say, 15-18 touches against a weak Miami run defense at near minimum price, you had to play him, because he afforded you the opportunity to roster the guys you really wanted, the guys casual fans had heard of, guys like Julio Jones, Mike Evans, A.J. Green, Rob Gronkowski, DeMarco Murray. (I’m not sure why I have to defend Gillislee to you. You had Gillislee in your lineup. We all did.).

As frustrating as it was that Gillislee didn’t work out, there were other players who came through in excellent spots and who definitely went overlooked by “the public”: Jack Doyle, Tyrell Williams, Michael Thomas, and (going back to Thursday), Ty Montgomery. All players who your casual fan may never have even heard of, but all players who were “obvious” plays to those of us who play daily fantasy every week.

Sometimes, I’ll hear someone mention that there’s no “edge” in DFS anymore. There’s the perception that everyone is visiting the same sites, reading the same content, and accessing the same information. To some extent, that’s true. But I disagree that there’s no edge. There are always players in great spots who are underpriced and who will go underowned by those who don’t understand that “daily fantasy sports” and “sports” are two separate entities, and that to understand one is not to understand the other. Obviously I’m biased, but RotoGrinders offers countless tools, articles, and blogs that give you and me an edge over others who don’t have the time, or don’t take the time, to use them.

I’m sitting here are 1:00 am trying to think of a clever way to wrap this up, but…it’s 1:00 am, and the clever part of my brain has already been asleep for a while. So that’s it. I hope you all had a successful week, and I hope you didn’t keep Mike Gillislee in your lineups.

To football.

All this happened, more or less…

Recapping Week 7 with 10 noteworthy happenings.

1. LeSean McCoy DID play, which rendered the entire Buffalo running game useless. McCoy had 8 carries for 11 yards before aggravating his hamstring injury (“We thought he was fine,” said Rex Ryan after the game). Gillislee carried the ball five times and gained 20 yards.

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2. This is what I wrote about Jay Ajayi in last week’s “Sneak Peek”: If a tree falls in the forest and nobody is there to see it, did it really make a sound? I don’t know, and I don’t care. But if Jay Ajayi puts up a Ricky Williams-esque line of 204 yards and two touchdowns and nobody in DFS rosters him, does it really matter?

Well, he did it again. Ajayi piled up 214 yards on 28 carries (not to mention adding a TD), and he became the fourth player since 1960 to rush for 200+ yards in two consecutive games, joining O.J. Simpson, Earl Campbell, and, most recently, Ricky Williams. And Just as in Week 6, he went underowned (3.1% in the $500K Slant at DraftKings, for example), largely due to a tough matchup against a stingy Bills run defense. And if that wasn’t crazy enough, Ajayi had that game despite nobody on his offensive line earning a run blocking grade higher than 65.7 at Pro Football Focus. Per PFF, Ajayi broke _10 tackles) and averaged 4.4 yards after contact. He’s on bye next week, but, wow.

3. Apart from Gillislee, the other Cheap Running Back Who Makes Everything Work for Week 7 was Jacquizz Rodgers (who everyone has taken to calling “Quizz,” with the double-z). Like they did in Week 5, Tampa Bay ran him into the ground, feeding him the ball 26 times. He rewarded them with 154 yards rushing, beating his previous career high (set in Week 5) of 101 yards.

4. One year after recording zero touchdowns in his rookie season, Melvin Gordon now has nine in seven games. He’s only averaged better than 4.0 yards per carry in three of those seven games, and he’s only had more than 70 rushing yards twice.

5. In a week where there were seemingly dozens of viable QBs, the highest-scoring QB was one very few people were talking about. Andrew Luck put up 353 yards and three touchdowns to lead all QBs with 30.8 DraftKings points.

6. All of the high-priced receivers paid off, to varying degrees. Julio Jones (9 receptions on 15 targets, 174 yards) and Mike Evans (8 receptions on 13 targets, 96 yards, 2 TDs) were excellent, but A.J. Green (8 receptions on 8 targets, 169 yards, 1 TD) was the star, largely because of this 48-yard Hail Mary:

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7. Jeremy Hill became the third player in NFL history to earn 168+ yards rushing on nine or fewer carries, joining Hugh McElhenny and Maurice Jones-Drew. Hill left the game in the fourth quarter with a chest injury and didn’t see another carry. He doesn’t appear to be in danger for next week, as he and teammate Gio Bernard find themselves in a prime matchup against the Redskins’ weak run defense.

8. Andy Dalton proved why QBs facing the Browns are a thing, as he passed for 308 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns have allowed at least two touchdown passes to an opposing QB in all seven games this year.

9. In a difficult matchup against the Patriots, Le’Veon Bell rushed for 81 yards on 21 carries, and just as importantly, he saw 13 targets, 10 of which he hauled in for 68 yards through the air. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Steelers lean on him even harder moving forward with Roethlisberger out. The Steelers are on bye for Week 8.

10. Jack Doyle led all tight ends with 10 targets. He caught nine of them for 78 yards, including a late touchdown. For comparison, Dwayne Allen (who is considered week-to-week with a high ankle sprain) has only received more than seven targets once in his career (11 targets on November 18th, 2012).

Snap Judgments for Week 8

I’ve decided to switch up the format this week. This week, I’ll select 10 players who, at first glance, really stand out to me because of price, matchup, or a combination of the two. I’m using DraftKings prices, as they tend to be the first to release prices for the upcoming week.

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1. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (@ NO) – $7,200 – In my mind, the Seahawks have the premiere matchup of the week, as they travel to New Orleans to take on a Saints team that, entering Week 7, ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA and 30th in rush defense DVOA. Seattle’s offensive line woes shouldn’t be an issue, as the Saints have notched just nine sacks on the season, including failing to sack Alex Smith in Week 8. I’m not worried about Wilson failing to put up a touchdown in Week 7; that was against the Cardinals, inside the division. Wilson isn’t cheap at DraftKings (fourth-most expensive QB, just $200 less than Cam Newton against the Cardinals), but if value opens up, he’s worth paying up for.

2. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. OAK) – $5,700 – The Winston/Evans connection should be in full swing again in Week 7. Oakland has some big corners, but even after holding Blake Bortles to 246 yards through the air, they still allow an NFL-high 308.6 passing yards per game. Winston is priced as the 19th-most-expensive QB, behind guys like Bortles, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Alex Smith. At first glance, that price tag seems like a steal.

3. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (vs. PHI) – $7,200 – Now that everyone has had two weeks to let Elliott’s thrashing of the former top-ranked Green Bay run defense marinate, it’ll be interesting to see how the public responds. Philadelphia is coming off an utterly dominant performance, and they’ve been stingy against the run this year, but their defensive game logs are littered with running backs like Jeremy Langford, Isaiah Crowell, Theo Riddick, and now Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon. Elliott’s price keeps rising, and he’s now the fourth-priciest RB, but I suspect he’ll be popular nonetheless.

4. Lamar Miller, Houston Texans (@ DET) – $6,300 – Entering Week 7, Detroit ranked 26th in run defense DVOA. If Miller impresses on Monday night against the Broncos, he could become the chalk in a cushy matchup against the Lions in Week 7. The worry with Miller is that, given Detroit’s complete ineptitude against the pass (which should be worsened in Week 8 as they’ll likely be without top corner Darius Slay), Miller’s usage might take a dip as Houston tries to beat Detroit through the air. But then again…it’s Brock Osweiler.

5. Jacquizz Rodgers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. OAK) – $5,800 – Rodgers’ price has increased by $1,500! As the 11th most expensive RB, he’s no longer in the bargain bin. If he’s going to see 20+ touches against a Raiders run defense that ranked 29th in DVOA and allowed the fearsome trio of Chris Ivory, T.J. Yeldon, and Blake Bortles to average 6.6 yards per carry in Week 7, Rodgers will be well worth the price. Of course, it’s all contingent upon whether or not Doug Martin returns from injury. But given head coach Dirk Koetter’s response, when asked about Martin’s return, was “I don’t know,” it’s looking likely Rodgers could be the Bucs’ lead back again in Week 8.

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6. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. OAK) – $8,100 – I love Julio Jones, but when Evans is $1,500 cheaper in an equally good matchup, I’ll take Evans.

7. Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ TEN) – $7,500 – No thank you. Robinson caught just three passes on six targets, and his highest yardage total for the season is 72 yards in Week 1. And now his price rises $200, against a better-than-average Titans pass defense (Week 7 against Andrew Luck notwithstanding). No thank you.

8. Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers (@ ATL) – $5,300 – Montgomery is looking he could be Week 8’s version of Jacquizz Rodgers (although a bit pricier). The Packers/Falcons game opened with a 53.5 total, the Packers have no real running backs, and Montgomery is coming off a 10-catch game. I could see Montgomery being one of the highest-owned players of Week 8 (more proof that sometimes, DFS is weird).

9. Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks (@ NO) – $6,100 – Revenge!!!

10. C.J. Fiedorowicz, Houston Texans (vs. DET) – $2,800 – Fiedorowicz has at least four catches for 48 yards in Weeks 4, 5, and 6, and he’s found the end zone twice during that span. He’s facing the Broncos on Monday night, and odds are, he won’t have a great game. But if his targets are anywhere in the 5-8 range again, he’s a lock-and-load in Week 8 against a Lions team that has surrendered seven touchdowns to TEs this year, and, in Week 7, made Vernon Davis look 10 years younger.

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Thanks for reading! All stats from this article were pulled from Pro Football Reference, StatMuse, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and FootballGuys.com.

Be sure to check out “10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes” for NFL Week 8, which will be published on Thursday. Good luck this week!

About the Author

mewhitenoise
Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.