Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, August 7th
Friday does not feature any major league, season, or team debuts. It doesn’t feature any debuts at all of any kind. That’s likely more comforting to me in writing this than you in reading it. What Friday does feature though, is many grown men capable of pitching a baseball really, really well. Consider that there are nine pitchers today with at least a 23.0 K% and five with a SIERA below 3.00. Then, of course, we have the greatest of them all going tonight. The big dominant lefty. Yes, that’s right, the immortal John Danks.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | -6.9 | 3.28 | 6.07 | 1.75 | 0.84 | 3.6 | 3.51 | SDG | 89 | 90 | 91 | 21.3% | 5.8% | 18.2% | 18.5% | 4.7% |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 3 | 3.86 | 5.84 | 1.16 | 0.91 | 3.59 | 4.45 | BAL | 91 | 90 | 111 | 19.4% | 5.3% | 19.5% | 9.8% | 9.4% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 3.1 | 4.04 | 5.62 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 3.83 | CIN | 83 | 94 | 67 | ||||||
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 4.8 | 2.22 | 7.14 | 1.86 | 0.91 | 2.31 | 1.91 | PIT | 103 | 96 | 81 | 26.5% | 5.7% | 18.3% | 7.8% | 11.3% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | -4.1 | 4.64 | 6.44 | 1.51 | 0.94 | 4.78 | 4.82 | MIN | 70 | 87 | 24 | 16.4% | 6.3% | 19.1% | 12.8% | 12.0% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 2.4 | 3.21 | 6.75 | 1.5 | 0.85 | 3.27 | 2.33 | SEA | 102 | 96 | 129 | 23.7% | 6.8% | 20.6% | 12.1% | 7.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -1.7 | 2.97 | 6.87 | 3.59 | 0.93 | 3.17 | 2.71 | OAK | 98 | 91 | 66 | 19.1% | 7.2% | 18.9% | 9.9% | 13.5% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 5.4 | 4.98 | 4.86 | 0.71 | 1.05 | 6.47 | 3.75 | BOS | 82 | 89 | 84 | 18.5% | 9.0% | 16.4% | 9.1% | 11.6% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 10 | 4.22 | 5.89 | 1.51 | 1.04 | 4.34 | 5.75 | CHW | 90 | 92 | 121 | 18.7% | 8.8% | 19.7% | 10.7% | 8.3% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -4.5 | 3.06 | 6.37 | 1.78 | 0.91 | 3.05 | 2.16 | LOS | 105 | 113 | 137 | 23.4% | 7.1% | 23.4% | 12.7% | 9.8% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -2.7 | 3.19 | 6.49 | 1.73 | 0.85 | 3.03 | 3.02 | TEX | 95 | 102 | 125 | 20.8% | 5.5% | 19.1% | 12.6% | 8.3% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.4 | 3.08 | 6.5 | 1.33 | 0.94 | 3.35 | 2.61 | TAM | 97 | 91 | 144 | 24.6% | 7.1% | 19.8% | 8.1% | 11.4% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 9.6 | 3.71 | 5.64 | 0.81 | 0.94 | 3.59 | 2.94 | NYM | 77 | 91 | 124 | 23.3% | 6.9% | 20.2% | 8.1% | 11.8% |
| James Shields | SDG | -8.6 | 3.52 | 6.47 | 1.28 | 0.84 | 3.46 | 3.79 | PHI | 85 | 84 | 123 | 20.1% | 5.6% | 22.5% | 10.0% | 11.9% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | -2.1 | 4.28 | 5.5 | 1.96 | 1.05 | 4.28 | 3.4 | DET | 111 | 107 | 113 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 24.0% | 10.1% | 8.4% |
| John Danks | CHW | -6.3 | 4.57 | 5.94 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 4.76 | 4.13 | KAN | 106 | 97 | 82 | 15.6% | 7.1% | 18.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.2 | 3.26 | 6.7 | 1.27 | 1.05 | 2.91 | 1.57 | SFO | 111 | 99 | 122 | 23.2% | 5.5% | 19.9% | 10.3% | 8.5% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | -4.5 | 3.51 | 6.25 | 1.15 | 1.03 | 3.56 | 4.25 | COL | 87 | 103 | 90 | 20.4% | 5.9% | 22.3% | 13.0% | 10.9% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | -0.5 | 4.13 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 1.03 | 4.04 | 4.18 | WAS | 92 | 90 | 78 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 20.5% | 11.7% | 5.7% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 5.2 | 2.6 | 6.39 | 1.35 | 0.98 | 2.22 | 3.47 | ATL | 90 | 89 | 102 | 24.3% | 7.4% | 24.8% | 7.4% | 10.0% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -3.9 | 3.82 | 6.36 | 0.88 | 0.98 | 3.6 | 3.86 | FLA | 87 | 79 | 65 | 20.5% | 6.5% | 21.7% | 10.8% | 7.6% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 7.6 | 3.76 | 5.73 | 1.16 | 0.91 | 4.03 | 3.14 | ANA | 103 | 100 | 40 | 20.4% | 6.1% | 20.0% | 9.3% | 14.6% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 1.4 | 3.71 | 6.08 | 1.2 | 1.07 | 3.52 | 4.7 | MIL | 88 | 91 | 98 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 21.5% | 10.5% | 10.1% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 2.3 | 4.8 | 5.62 | 1.77 | 0.94 | 5.18 | 4.23 | CLE | 103 | 94 | 55 | 16.3% | 8.3% | 19.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | -5.5 | 3.94 | 5.86 | 1.5 | 1.02 | 3.64 | 3.93 | TOR | 100 | 109 | 134 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 19.2% | 10.5% | 9.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | -2 | 4.22 | 6.53 | 1.1 | 1.02 | 4.56 | 3.99 | NYY | 122 | 109 | 136 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 19.9% | 10.7% | 11.6% |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 2.9 | 3.7 | 5.51 | 1.02 | 1.09 | 3.95 | 3.2 | ARI | 95 | 95 | 90 | 22.2% | 6.4% | 23.4% | 12.3% | 11.4% |
| Ryan Vogelsong | SFO | 1.7 | 4.34 | 5.72 | 1.14 | 1.05 | 4.6 | 3 | CHC | 84 | 88 | 104 | 20.8% | 7.4% | 22.0% | 15.5% | 5.7% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -8.5 | 3.45 | 6.63 | 2.01 | 0.93 | 3.6 | 3.13 | HOU | 93 | 106 | 116 | 22.9% | 7.9% | 19.1% | 10.1% | 10.2% |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | -3.8 | 4.46 | 6.5 | 1.13 | 1.07 | 5.19 | STL | 92 | 101 | 95 |
Aaron Nola has struck out batters at an average rate, walked very few of them, but allowed four HRs in his three major league starts. A .220 BABIP has kept his ERA low, though his non-FIP estimators really like him so far, mostly due to a 16.7 K-BB% and 51.9 GB%. Tonight will be the first pitcher’s park he appears in, so maybe that will help him keep the ball in the yard though it hasn’t done so for San Diego pitchers this year. San Diego is a poor offense at home (17.2 K-BB%) and vs RHP (15.2 K-BB%), making for one of the top park adjusted matchups tonight.
Andrew Heaney has not allowed more than two ERs in seven starts yet and while the ERA estimators don’t like him that much, his 15.3 K-BB% is above average. The matchup, in a good home park, is a very favorable one for him tonight. The Orioles struggle on the road (17.1 K-BB%) and vs LHP (16.8 K-BB%).
Clayton Kershaw has not allowed a run in over a month in which he’s struck out 38.1% of the batters he’s faced. Believe it or not, his 25.4 K-BB% on the road since last season is about five points inferior to his home rate, but that also comes with a 7.8 HR/FB away since last year and a park that kills RH power tonight. Pittsburgh is a fairly neutral offense that park adjusts down to a good matchup. They have a 16.5 K-BB% vs LHP.
Cole Hamels had his old nemesis, the HR ball, jump up and bite him in his first Texas start against the Giants, but travels to a much better park to face a less familiar opponent in Seattle tonight. He has an 18.2 K-BB% on the year that’s just a bit higher than his career mark and he strikes out about a quarter of the batters he faces no matter how you split it. As mentioned, HRs have been an issue at times, but after allowing seven in his first three starts, he had only allowed five more until last time out and has just a 5.6 HR/FB on the road since last year. The Seattle offense has been more potent in the second half, but park adjust down to a good matchup here with a 22.7 K% at home. They do have a league-high 18.0 HR/FB over the last week that includes a trip to Colorado though.
Dallas Keuchel is a weak ground ball machine much in the essence that Brett Anderson is, except that even though his GB% is 2.7 points lower for second best in the majors at 63.6%, he trumps everyone with a -4.6 Hard-Soft% and is striking out 23% of batters faced with a rate that’s risen every month of the season. Though Oakland has a low strikeout rate, they otherwise matchup in favor of the pitcher at home with a 6.8 HR/FB at home, 7.6 HR/FB vs LHP, and 6.1 Hard-Soft% overall. In other words, an Oakland HR with Keuchel in there tonight would be a big shock.
Gerrit Cole has been remarkably consistent, allowing more than three ERs in only one start this season with a 19.8 K-BB%. He’s struck out fewer than six only five times and generates a strong 51.8 GB%. He faces a challenge tonight against the second-best offense both on the road and vs RHP with strong walk and HR rates. The power should be muted some in this park, but they’ve been one of the hotter offenses in the league over the past week and still represent a slightly below average matchup even after a park adjustment.
Hisashi Iwakuma is coming off what may be his best start of the season with eight strikeouts, coming just one out from a complete game. He’s allowed 12 HRs in eight starts despite pitching in only one real extreme hitting environment and generally allows a lot of hard contact (17.9 Hard-Soft%). This would be the park to have that tendency in though he still has a 17.5 HR/FB at home since last season. He survives by backing that up with a league average strikeout rate, but just a 2.1 BB% at home over the same period. Texas is a neutral offense, but have been hot lately and have some left-handed power. They should still be an overall good park adjusted matchup here with a 22.1 K% on the road, but with a 12.0 HR/FB. A solo HR or two might be likely.
Jacob deGrom has allowed more than two ERs just once and never more than three over his last 13 starts, failing to complete six innings only once as well. He’s a legitimate Cy Young candidate on any planet without Kershaw (and Scherzer), following up his Rookie of the Year campaign with an improved 21.6 K-BB%. He faces a DH tonight in Tampa, but the park remains favorable against an offense that struggles at home (23.4 K%) and vs RHP (22.2 K%), but are the hottest in baseball over the last week (14.0 HR/FB), making them a near neutral park adjusted matchup tonight.
Jake Odorizzi has essentially been the same pitcher this year in terms of his xFIP and SIERA with a slight decline in his 14.1 K-BB% despite a drop in his ERA of over a run. What he has done is increase his ground ball rate from 29.9% to 41.6%, giving a much larger impact to a small drop in his HR rate. He has an 18.2 K-BB% and 3.4 HR/FB at home since last season. The Mets have hit the ball well with their new acquisitions, but are still a below average offense both on the road (15.6 K-BB%, 7.3 HR/FB) and vs RHP, representing a park adjusted matchup in favor of the pitcher.
James Shields has just a 9.5 HR/FB over his last 13 starts. That would seem like great news, but he also has just a 11.6 K-BB% and been just a league average pitcher since then also, which makes you wonder what he’s purposely doing differently, though I can’t immediately find it in his pitch mix. His K and SwStr rates have remained above average, just not as elite as they were over the first part of the season. The Phillies have been a bit better recently, but still have just a 6.7 HR/FB on the road and are the second worst offense vs RHP, making them one of the top park adjusted matchups tonight.
Jordan Zimmermann has not completed more than five innings with less than three ERs in any of his last five starts and really just rates as a league average pitcher this year with a reduced strikeout rate, closer to his career level prior to last season combined with some harder contact than normal. He does find some favor in a Colorado offense with an 18.0 K-BB% on the road.
Jorge de la Rosa has allowed harder contact than usual (18.4 Hard-Soft%) and you can imagine how that goes over in Colorado, but he’s also seen a nice spike in his K and SwStr rates. Unfortunately, it’s accompanied with a double digit BB%, but he faces a struggling Washington offense that has been below average all season and hasn’t seen much improvement with some of their big bats back. They have a 22.2 K% vs LHP this year.
Jose Fernandez continues his dominance since returning with a 25.2 K-BB% and 3.2 Hard-Soft% in six starts now. Atlanta should comply with the weak contact park (4.7 Hard-Soft%, 7.7 HR/FB vs RHP), but may challenge him in the strikeout department (17.1 K% vs RHP, 14.6 K% over the last week). They are one of the worst offenses in the league with Freeman out and are a good overall park adjusted matchup here.
Julio Teheran has seen a major spike in his K and SwStr rates over the last month though you wouldn’t know it from the overall results. His strikeout rate is exactly league average and not much different from what he’s done in the past. The main issues have been an increase in walks and HRs and those are pretty much the worst issues you can have as a pitcher. However, he has just a 7.5 HR/FB at home since last season and has allowed just three in 10 home starts this year, including none in his last five. He has one of the top park adjusted matchups tonight against the worst offense vs RHP.
Kevin Gausman has allowed two ERs or fewer in four of his six starts and gone at seven innings in each of his last two. Though the K% hasn’t been what you might expect considering the stuff, the SwStr% is there to hope for more. Elevate that 95 mph fastball young man! He has a -6.3 Hard-Soft% as a starter. The Angels aren’t a bad offense, but have been a cold one (1.2 Hard-Soft% over the last week) and park adjust down to a good matchup for the pitcher here.
Raisel Iglesias has K and SwStr rates that are flying under the radar, likely due to allowing a single HR in each of his last five starts and not completing seven innings yet, though he’s gone increasingly deeper in each of his last three starts and came just one out from that goal most recently. The long ball could be an issue again in Arizona tonight, but it’s a below average offense that strikes out slightly more than average and only park adjusts to a neutral matchup here.
Sonny Gray continues to be more real life than daily fantasy value due to an incredibly low ERA in a great situation in Oakland, but a strikeout rate just a tad above league average. He draws a lot of benefit from pop ups and weak contact overall (2.6 Hard-Soft%). It works. It gets results, but aside from consistently going deep in games, it’s a profile I’m often hesitant to pay up for. Fewer things can go wrong when you’re striking guys out. The strikeout rate should get a boost today. The Astros have a 23.1 K% on the road and 24.2 K% vs RHP, but they may challenge that whole weak contact thing (15.3 HR/FB vs RHP), though park should average that out (11.2 HR/FB on the road) and make this a more neutral overall matchup.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Lance Lynn (.312 BABIP – 79.4 LOB% – 7.3 HR/FB) – I expect to get some flak for this decision, but while his low HR rate might be sustainable at home, he’s really an over-priced league average pitcher on the road. Though the matchup is fine, the park is dangerous, making it neutral overall and there are plenty of great options tonight. He’s pitched just once in a favorable hitting environment since April and that was against a weak White Sox offense.
Mike Pelfrey (.311 BABIP – 73.9 LOB% – 7.1 HR/FB) – Just a 4.0 K-BB%.
Daniel Norris (.264 BABIP – 82.4 LOB% – 9.3 HR/FB) – He has just a 7.7 K-BB% in six starts this year, though he did look much better in his Detroit debut and first start since April, but against a Baltimore offense that swings and misses much more often than Boston.
Cody Anderson (.238 BABIP – 76.4 LOB% – 12.8 HR/FB) – He has just a 6.1 K-BB%, but there is some room for growth in his 10.6 K%, as seen in the K/SwStr chart. It’s a shame too because he has the top park adjusted matchup of the night against the worst road offense and coldest team in baseball.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Nathan Eovaldi – This is more about the matchup. He hasn’t been bad lately.
Edinson Volquez has walked eight of his last 53 batters, while striking out only as many.
Tyler Cravy has started just two major league games this year. Though he’s shown some swing and miss ability in the past, he has a below average K% at AAA this season and induced just one swing and miss in his last start against Atlanta on July 7th. He has an unfavorable matchup in an unforgiving park tonight.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 20.8% | 4.2% | Road | 21.4% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 4.2% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 17.9% | 4.6% | Home | 18.8% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 6.3% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 18.6% | 7.1% | Home | 19.5% | 6.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 31.6% | 4.8% | Road | 30.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 1.8% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 10.1% | 3.9% | Home | 8.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 24.4% | 6.5% | Road | 25.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 32.8% | 5.2% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 20.1% | 6.3% | Road | 18.1% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 5.8% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 17.0% | 11.3% | Home | 13.0% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 3.9% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 17.7% | 8.8% | Home | 16.9% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 15.1% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 24.7% | 6.2% | Home | 23.8% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 1.9% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 20.7% | 4.0% | Home | 20.3% | 2.1% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 4.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 25.8% | 6.2% | Road | 25.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 5.8% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 22.7% | 7.6% | Home | 25.6% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 4.0% |
| James Shields | Padres | 21.8% | 6.2% | Home | 21.8% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 3.9% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 16.0% | 8.9% | Road | 16.4% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 2.3% |
| John Danks | White Sox | 15.3% | 7.7% | Road | 14.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 10.4% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 23.8% | 5.8% | Home | 25.7% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 1.8% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 20.4% | 4.1% | Home | 19.3% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 7.7% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 18.7% | 9.5% | Road | 18.7% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 4.6% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | 31.3% | 7.0% | Road | 33.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 12.2% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 21.0% | 7.0% | Home | 22.4% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 7.7% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 20.7% | 7.4% | Road | 20.3% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 1.9% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 22.5% | 8.3% | Road | 24.3% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 10.9% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 12.3% | 8.8% | Road | 7.6% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 5.7% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 17.0% | 5.8% | Home | 17.2% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 6.9% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 17.9% | 7.8% | Road | 15.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 4.5% |
| Raisel Iglesias | Reds | 22.3% | 7.1% | Road | 21.1% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 3.8% |
| Ryan Vogelsong | Giants | 17.2% | 8.2% | Road | 17.0% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 21.6% | 7.7% | Home | 20.2% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 8.9% |
| Tyler Cravy | Brewers | 15.3% | 6.8% | Home | 11.1% | 3.7% | L14 Days |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 23.4% | 6.2% | RH | 21.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.6% | 6.5% | LH | 22.3% | 5.5% | L7Days | 18.9% | 5.4% |
| Reds | Road | 19.4% | 7.3% | RH | 18.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.2% | 8.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.5% | 7.0% | LH | 23.4% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.2% | 8.4% |
| Twins | Road | 21.9% | 6.9% | RH | 20.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 25.8% | 6.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.7% | 7.9% | LH | 20.2% | 5.9% | L7Days | 17.1% | 7.8% |
| Athletics | Home | 15.9% | 7.4% | LH | 17.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.7% | 9.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 17.8% | 7.9% | LH | 20.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 23.7% | 7.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 20.2% | 5.5% | RH | 20.5% | 6.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.4% | 9.8% | RH | 20.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.6% | 10.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 22.2% | 7.1% | RH | 19.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.0% |
| Rays | Home | 23.4% | 7.3% | RH | 22.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.8% |
| Mets | Road | 22.1% | 6.5% | RH | 20.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.4% | 5.8% | RH | 19.2% | 5.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 6.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.5% | 7.5% | RH | 19.4% | 6.7% | L7Days | 17.4% | 5.6% |
| Royals | Home | 14.4% | 6.0% | LH | 14.6% | 5.2% | L7Days | 14.1% | 4.8% |
| Giants | Road | 18.6% | 7.0% | LH | 20.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 14.9% | 6.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.9% | 5.9% | RH | 19.7% | 6.3% | L7Days | 21.7% | 7.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.8% | 8.3% | LH | 22.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.6% | 7.5% |
| Braves | Home | 18.5% | 8.1% | RH | 17.1% | 7.2% | L7Days | 14.6% | 3.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.0% | 6.0% | RH | 19.9% | 6.3% | L7Days | 17.2% | 5.3% |
| Angels | Home | 20.2% | 7.6% | RH | 19.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.3% | 4.6% |
| Brewers | Home | 20.7% | 7.2% | RH | 20.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.3% |
| Indians | Home | 19.5% | 9.5% | RH | 19.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 27.9% | 8.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.8% | 8.0% | RH | 18.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 16.2% | 10.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.1% | 9.0% | RH | 18.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.3% | 11.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.8% | 8.4% | RH | 21.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 24.0% | 5.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.0% | 9.3% | RH | 24.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.9% |
| Astros | Road | 23.1% | 7.3% | RH | 24.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.4% | 8.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.9% | 7.6% | RH | 19.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.9% | 6.9% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 18.5% | 25.0% | 6.3% | Road | 15.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 20.8% | 10.8% | 7.2% | Home | 18.8% | 9.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 23.8% | 12.3% | 8.8% | Home | 22.4% | 11.2% | 9.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 21.0% | 8.1% | 12.6% | Road | 19.4% | 7.8% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 8.6% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 22.4% | 12.8% | 10.6% | Home | 17.9% | 14.3% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 23.1% | 15.4% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 21.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | Road | 19.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 19.1% | 10.6% | 11.1% | Road | 19.5% | 13.2% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 14.3% | 28.6% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 18.3% | 9.6% | 13.5% | Home | 13.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 5.3% | 11.1% | 22.2% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 19.0% | 9.8% | 6.1% | Home | 17.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 21.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | Home | 20.8% | 12.4% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 20.0% | 13.6% | 9.1% | Home | 18.6% | 17.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 10.5% | 5.3% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 21.6% | 6.7% | 9.2% | Road | 18.7% | 8.5% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 0.0% | 30.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 21.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | Home | 19.6% | 3.4% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 7.1% | 14.3% |
| James Shields | Padres | 21.7% | 11.2% | 11.2% | Home | 23.0% | 10.5% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 9.1% | 27.3% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 22.4% | 10.6% | 6.3% | Road | 19.4% | 14.5% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Danks | White Sox | 20.4% | 10.5% | 7.9% | Road | 20.6% | 10.6% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 20.7% | 6.8% | 12.2% | Home | 21.4% | 5.9% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 23.1% | 7.0% | 12.4% | Home | 23.2% | 5.0% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 19.2% | 13.3% | 6.5% | Road | 18.8% | 12.7% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | 20.5% | 6.4% | 11.0% | Road | 21.9% | 8.7% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 23.3% | 9.9% | 11.2% | Home | 21.2% | 7.5% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 21.0% | 7.4% | 13.3% | Road | 19.5% | 9.2% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 7.7% | 30.8% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 21.0% | 7.2% | 11.5% | Road | 23.2% | 9.6% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 21.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | Road | 18.6% | 11.9% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 22.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | Home | 21.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 20.4% | 10.7% | 12.1% | Road | 20.7% | 8.5% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 0.0% | 13.8% |
| Raisel Iglesias | Reds | 23.0% | 9.4% | 11.3% | Road | 32.6% | 13.3% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Ryan Vogelsong | Giants | 23.5% | 9.8% | 7.4% | Road | 23.2% | 15.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 17.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | Home | 18.8% | 9.9% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Tyler Cravy | Brewers | 24.4% | 6.3% | 18.8% | Home | 18.2% | 9.1% | 18.2% | L14 Days |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 19.2% | 11.2% | 6.7% | RH | 19.3% | 10.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 21.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | LH | 21.1% | 11.2% | 9.8% | L7Days | 18.4% | 16.3% | 6.1% |
| Reds | Road | 20.1% | 9.1% | 9.9% | RH | 21.1% | 10.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.9% | 3.8% | 7.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.1% | 10.6% | 6.2% | LH | 23.5% | 11.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| Twins | Road | 18.7% | 7.5% | 11.2% | RH | 20.5% | 9.1% | 12.2% | L7Days | 16.3% | 9.7% | 12.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.2% | 11.5% | 7.8% | LH | 21.2% | 12.2% | 11.8% | L7Days | 25.9% | 18.0% | 2.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.5% | 6.8% | 11.4% | LH | 18.5% | 7.6% | 11.6% | L7Days | 16.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.8% | 8.9% | 12.2% | LH | 20.2% | 10.3% | 10.6% | L7Days | 20.8% | 9.8% | 5.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.9% | 9.8% | 10.3% | RH | 21.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.3% | 16.1% | 6.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.9% | 13.9% | 8.4% | RH | 21.6% | 14.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.9% | 15.5% | 10.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.9% | 12.0% | 8.8% | RH | 19.1% | 11.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 24.6% | 10.8% | 10.8% |
| Rays | Home | 20.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | RH | 21.3% | 9.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 14.0% | 3.5% |
| Mets | Road | 23.4% | 7.3% | 10.6% | RH | 22.8% | 9.4% | 11.7% | L7Days | 21.7% | 13.1% | 11.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.9% | 6.7% | 9.3% | RH | 22.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.7% | 14.6% | 8.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | RH | 21.8% | 10.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 23.6% | 15.1% | 15.1% |
| Royals | Home | 21.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | LH | 23.6% | 6.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.2% | 5.9% | 8.2% |
| Giants | Road | 22.6% | 13.3% | 5.6% | LH | 21.0% | 8.4% | 3.2% | L7Days | 18.2% | 16.3% | 6.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.8% | 12.8% | 9.2% | RH | 21.7% | 14.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.4% | 13.2% | 7.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.2% | 11.6% | 8.6% | LH | 20.3% | 10.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 22.8% | 11.9% | 3.4% |
| Braves | Home | 21.6% | 8.0% | 10.0% | RH | 22.2% | 7.7% | 9.9% | L7Days | 25.6% | 13.3% | 5.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.2% | 12.2% | 7.8% | RH | 20.0% | 10.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 16.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% |
| Angels | Home | 21.8% | 12.1% | 10.8% | RH | 20.4% | 11.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 18.2% | 7.5% | 11.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.1% | 11.4% | 6.7% | RH | 20.9% | 9.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.0% | 10.6% | 8.5% |
| Indians | Home | 22.5% | 8.2% | 10.6% | RH | 20.3% | 9.8% | 12.0% | L7Days | 14.9% | 8.6% | 13.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.0% | 12.0% | 14.1% | RH | 18.8% | 13.8% | 12.9% | L7Days | 21.5% | 15.6% | 13.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.7% | 15.4% | 10.2% | RH | 21.4% | 13.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.5% | 15.8% | 12.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.5% | 9.9% | 7.3% | RH | 21.4% | 10.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.6% | 14.3% | 10.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.2% | 9.8% | 11.0% | RH | 19.9% | 10.9% | 9.7% | L7Days | 22.1% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| Astros | Road | 21.8% | 11.2% | 11.4% | RH | 20.2% | 15.3% | 11.3% | L7Days | 18.5% | 16.2% | 13.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.5% | 11.0% | 11.2% | RH | 22.4% | 9.2% | 9.9% | L7Days | 24.2% | 12.7% | 7.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 20.8% | 11.2% | 1.86 | 20.8% | 11.2% | 1.86 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 19.3% | 9.8% | 1.97 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 1.99 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 15.3% | 7.0% | 2.19 | 15.9% | 6.0% | 2.65 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 33.6% | 15.6% | 2.15 | 38.1% | 15.6% | 2.44 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 10.1% | 7.8% | 1.29 | 8.4% | 8.0% | 1.05 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 25.3% | 13.3% | 1.90 | 24.5% | 13.1% | 1.87 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 23.0% | 9.5% | 2.42 | 28.9% | 9.9% | 2.92 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 17.8% | 9.4% | 1.89 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 1.61 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 17.7% | 9.9% | 1.79 | 16.6% | 8.7% | 1.91 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 25.1% | 10.4% | 2.41 | 23.4% | 12.5% | 1.87 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 19.8% | 9.3% | 2.13 | 23.0% | 10.3% | 2.23 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 26.2% | 11.9% | 2.20 | 33.0% | 13.6% | 2.43 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.04 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 2.07 |
| James Shields | SDG | 25.9% | 13.2% | 1.96 | 21.7% | 10.3% | 2.11 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 18.5% | 7.1% | 2.61 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 2.79 |
| John Danks | CHW | 16.5% | 8.8% | 1.88 | 19.3% | 8.4% | 2.30 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 25.0% | 10.5% | 2.38 | 32.1% | 11.2% | 2.87 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.36 | 18.3% | 8.1% | 2.26 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 21.7% | 11.8% | 1.84 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 1.88 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 31.1% | 14.6% | 2.13 | 32.5% | 15.1% | 2.15 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 20.2% | 11.1% | 1.82 | 27.8% | 13.7% | 2.03 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 20.2% | 10.8% | 1.87 | 18.8% | 10.7% | 1.76 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 25.2% | 9.7% | 2.60 | 25.6% | 10.8% | 2.37 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 11.1% | 5.3% | 2.09 | 10.2% | 6.1% | 1.67 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 16.6% | 8.2% | 2.02 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 2.03 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 14.9% | 9.3% | 1.60 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 1.79 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 22.3% | 11.6% | 1.92 | 22.0% | 11.7% | 1.88 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | SFO | 16.9% | 5.4% | 3.13 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 2.94 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 22.1% | 9.8% | 2.26 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 2.22 |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | 15.3% | 5.1% | 3.00 | 11.1% | 1.1% | 10.09 |
I’d just like to point out that R.A. Dickey is the only qualified pitcher with a K% out of range from his SwStr% today. This is something that I feel validates the approach when there’s often less to talk about here later into the season.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.38 | 3.27 | -0.11 | 3.18 | -0.2 | 4.75 | 1.37 | 3.38 | 3.28 | -0.1 | 3.18 | -0.2 | 4.75 | 1.37 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 1.97 | 3.72 | 1.75 | 3.75 | 1.78 | 3.05 | 1.08 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 3.94 | 1.74 | 3.09 | 0.89 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 4.37 | 4.33 | -0.04 | 4.24 | -0.13 | 4.25 | -0.12 | 12.38 | 4.1 | -8.28 | 4.08 | -8.3 | 6.09 | -6.29 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.37 | 2.13 | -0.24 | 2 | -0.37 | 2.11 | -0.26 | 0 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 3.38 | 4.64 | 1.26 | 4.3 | 0.92 | 4.55 | 1.17 | 6.23 | 5.22 | -1.01 | 4.96 | -1.27 | 6.32 | 0.09 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.76 | 3.23 | -0.53 | 3.19 | -0.57 | 3.34 | -0.42 | 7.43 | 3.1 | -4.33 | 3.01 | -4.42 | 3.35 | -4.08 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.35 | 2.68 | 0.33 | 2.6 | 0.25 | 2.68 | 0.33 | 3.38 | 2.11 | -1.27 | 1.99 | -1.39 | 1.89 | -1.49 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 3.23 | 4.77 | 1.54 | 5.05 | 1.82 | 4.76 | 1.53 | 1.23 | 3.75 | 2.52 | 3.88 | 2.65 | 3.91 | 2.68 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 3.2 | 4.33 | 1.13 | 4.24 | 1.04 | 3.85 | 0.65 | 2.48 | 4.69 | 2.21 | 4.47 | 1.99 | 4.22 | 1.74 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 2.29 | 2.94 | 0.65 | 2.9 | 0.61 | 2.65 | 0.36 | 2.33 | 2.91 | 0.58 | 2.95 | 0.62 | 2.76 | 0.43 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 4.47 | 3.43 | -1.04 | 3.38 | -1.09 | 4.74 | 0.27 | 2.83 | 2.98 | 0.15 | 3.01 | 0.18 | 2.95 | 0.12 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2.09 | 2.97 | 0.88 | 2.96 | 0.87 | 2.53 | 0.44 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.32 | 1.02 | 1.61 | 0.31 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 2.86 | 3.82 | 0.96 | 3.83 | 0.97 | 3.29 | 0.43 | 4 | 4.28 | 0.28 | 4.28 | 0.28 | 4.2 | 0.2 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.74 | 3.38 | -0.36 | 3.37 | -0.37 | 4.07 | 0.33 | 3.18 | 4.1 | 0.92 | 3.83 | 0.65 | 4.47 | 1.29 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 6.11 | 4.15 | -1.96 | 4.04 | -2.07 | 4.29 | -1.82 | 8.56 | 3.45 | -5.11 | 3.59 | -4.97 | 5 | -3.56 |
| John Danks | CHW | 4.8 | 4.45 | -0.35 | 4.53 | -0.27 | 4.29 | -0.51 | 4.33 | 4.32 | -0.01 | 4.55 | 0.22 | 2.98 | -1.35 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.26 | 3.09 | -0.17 | 2.99 | -0.27 | 2.94 | -0.32 | 2.45 | 1.91 | -0.54 | 2.08 | -0.37 | 1.56 | -0.89 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 3.54 | 3.97 | 0.43 | 3.91 | 0.37 | 3.43 | -0.11 | 5.46 | 3.88 | -1.58 | 3.83 | -1.63 | 4.95 | -0.51 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 4.87 | 4.06 | -0.81 | 3.86 | -1.01 | 4.41 | -0.46 | 5.93 | 3.56 | -2.37 | 3.43 | -2.5 | 5.14 | -0.79 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2.13 | 2.57 | 0.44 | 2.41 | 0.28 | 1.75 | -0.38 | 1.69 | 2.6 | 0.91 | 2.53 | 0.84 | 1.47 | -0.22 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.59 | 4.13 | -0.46 | 4.06 | -0.53 | 4.46 | -0.13 | 4.55 | 3.45 | -1.1 | 3.4 | -1.15 | 4 | -0.55 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 3.97 | 3.73 | -0.24 | 4.05 | 0.08 | 3.93 | -0.04 | 4.81 | 3.74 | -1.07 | 3.84 | -0.97 | 4.29 | -0.52 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 2.89 | 3.45 | 0.56 | 3.47 | 0.58 | 2.99 | 0.1 | 4.03 | 3.36 | -0.67 | 3.49 | -0.54 | 3.82 | -0.21 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 3.65 | 4.56 | 0.91 | 4.46 | 0.81 | 4.06 | 0.41 | 2.67 | 4.34 | 1.67 | 4.26 | 1.59 | 3.91 | 1.24 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.3 | 3.96 | -0.34 | 3.81 | -0.49 | 3.54 | -0.76 | 3.64 | 3.65 | 0.01 | 3.61 | -0.03 | 2.86 | -0.78 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.06 | 4.7 | 0.64 | 4.67 | 0.61 | 4.59 | 0.53 | 1.24 | 3.91 | 2.67 | 4.04 | 2.8 | 2.68 | 1.44 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 5.13 | 3.7 | -1.43 | 3.96 | -1.17 | 3.75 | -1.38 | 5.16 | 3.59 | -1.57 | 3.9 | -1.26 | 4.64 | -0.52 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | SFO | 4.16 | 4.6 | 0.44 | 4.6 | 0.44 | 4.89 | 0.73 | 4.63 | 3.81 | -0.82 | 4.24 | -0.39 | 6.01 | 1.38 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 2.12 | 3.42 | 1.3 | 3.38 | 1.26 | 2.88 | 0.76 | 2.2 | 3.74 | 1.54 | 3.52 | 1.32 | 3.38 | 1.18 |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | 3 | 4.46 | 1.46 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 3.56 | 0.56 | 4.5 | 5.12 | 0.62 | 5.19 | 0.69 | 4.76 | 0.26 |
Andrew Heaney has a couple of caution flags as his strikeout rate has dropped over his last few starts and a number of things in his profile are unsustainable. A 6.0 HR/FB in a good park is really borderline, but the concern would be a 38.3 Hard% with a 1.08 GB/FB. This also brings us to a .238 BABIP without any above average indicators. Lastly, an 85.1 LOB% is doomed to eventual regression. All in all, he profiles as a league average pitcher and maybe a bit better depending on the HR rate, but the quality or contact allowed is something to watch.
Clayton Kershaw – Obviously a 100% strand rate and 0.0 HR/FB aren’t sustainable unless you’re striking out every batter, but just look at those estimators over the last month.
Cole Hamels has a .379 BABIP and 48.6 LOB% over his last four starts with a 19.4 K-BB% and pretty standard batted ball and contact authority rates.
Dallas Keuchel has maintained a 60.0 GB% with a -2.4 Hard-Soft% and 24.6 K-BB% over the last month but has a .341 BABIP and 66.5 LOB%. Fear not at all.
Hisashi Iwakuma – Cut his 21.4 HR/FB in half to normalize it and he loses close to a run off his ERA. Despite a lot of hard contact allowed, he has a 16.3 LD%, so a lot of that hard contact is leaving the yard. At this point, while regression is still probable, it’s unlikely to be all the way down to average, leaving with a projected ERA closer to four the rest of the way. He has some Joe Blanton tendencies and if you’re going to get bombed in this park, there’s not much hope for your HR rate.
Jacob deGrom has his BABIP down to .249 now and below .200 from June through July. Though his indicators and contact authority stats are fine, none are so favorable to project something like this. A 79.3 LOB% and 7.3 HR/FB are also fairly borderline, especially since the most recent outfield wall adjustment inward at Citi Field. He’s been dominant since the All-Star break, though, striking out a third of his batters.
Jake Odorizzi has seen improvements to his BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB, but the good news is that none of those seem incredibly unsustainable in his current environment (great park and defense) and are further enhanced by a change in batted ball profile generating more ground balls. His ERA should trend closer to his FIP the rest of the way and possibly even below in a great situation.
Jorge de la Rosa has a 16.0 HR/FB. It’s much higher than his career rate, but considering he pitches in Colorado and has seen an increase in hard contact, this could continue to be a problem going forward, though he may get a slight reprieve on the road occasionally.
Raisel Iglesias is a fly ball pitcher, which could be a problem in Cincinnati, but he actually has a single digit HR/FB and normal contact authority stats. The issue has been a .331 BABIP. He does have a 23.0 LD%, but that’s not terrible and his other indicators (IFFB, Z-Contact%) are fine with a great BABIP defense behind him. There’s much hidden potential here.
Sonny Gray – Even though Oakland doesn’t rate well defensively overall, they seem to position themselves well enough to suppress BABIP, although that’s likely due to a park with a ton of foul ground too. This is a pitcher who benefits from his environment and generates a lot of weak contact, so I have little issue with most of it, though I do believe there’s at least some regression in his .247 BABIP, 80.3 LOB%, and 6.3 HR/FB. He should be able to stay a bit below his estimators.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.320 | 0.220 | -0.1 | 6.3% | 87.1% |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 0.279 | 0.238 | -0.041 | 6.0% | 89.3% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.291 | 0.294 | 0.003 | 8.2% | 88.7% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.298 | 0.285 | -0.013 | 13.5% | 77.8% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 0.298 | 0.238 | -0.06 | 10.6% | 91.0% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.293 | 0.295 | 0.002 | 14.0% | 84.4% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.280 | 0.259 | -0.021 | 13.8% | 89.8% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.302 | 0.264 | -0.038 | 16.3% | 88.4% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.280 | 0.275 | -0.005 | 4.7% | 86.3% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.304 | 0.310 | 0.006 | 6.1% | 88.7% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.290 | 0.267 | -0.023 | 7.1% | 92.6% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.283 | 0.249 | -0.034 | 10.6% | 85.5% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.278 | 0.269 | -0.009 | 8.8% | 85.9% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.296 | 0.309 | 0.013 | 12.2% | 83.6% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 0.306 | 0.331 | 0.025 | 5.9% | 91.7% |
| John Danks | CHW | 0.319 | 0.315 | -0.004 | 8.9% | 86.4% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.290 | 0.309 | 0.019 | 8.5% | 86.3% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 0.309 | 0.314 | 0.005 | 12.2% | 91.2% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.315 | 0.292 | -0.023 | 2.5% | 85.7% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0.291 | 0.312 | 0.021 | 11.1% | 84.3% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.307 | 0.309 | 0.002 | 12.4% | 84.4% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.289 | 0.261 | -0.028 | 20.3% | 86.1% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.288 | 0.312 | 0.024 | 11.4% | 86.1% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 0.296 | 0.311 | 0.015 | 6.1% | 93.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.298 | 0.347 | 0.049 | 5.7% | 88.2% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.282 | 0.257 | -0.025 | 12.1% | 82.8% |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 0.279 | 0.331 | 0.052 | 11.3% | 87.8% |
| Ryan Vogelsong | SFO | 0.288 | 0.267 | -0.021 | 6.0% | 93.2% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.283 | 0.247 | -0.036 | 11.0% | 88.3% |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | 0.303 | 0.311 | 0.008 | 18.8% | 91.5% |
Kevin Gausman has a .255 BABIP in six starts but has generated nine IFFBs (over 1/5 of his fly balls) with a 16.4 LD% in that span. Not that I’d expect those rates to be sustainable, but I’d have little issue with his BABIP while they continue.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier Zero
John Danks – If you can somehow gain access to a script that would let you use John Danks twice on multiple pitcher sites, you might end up breaking records tonight. Although, I hope everyone realizes this is a joke. Please don’t consider rostering him tonight. Or maybe do because he always seems to shut down my daily fantasy lineup somehow.
Value Tier One
Kevin Gausman is amazingly not Clayton Kershaw in the top spot, but that’s because he’s done some good work as a starter and still carries a very low price tag. The matchup could give you some pause, but really it’s just a couple of guys and the park in addition to a cold streak make it slightly favorable towards him here. He’s generating a lot of weak contact and a double-digit SwStr%.
Value Tier Two
Aaron Nola – In addition to several high-priced options, there are quite a few lower priced pitchers with potential tonight. He’s shown decent stuff with a good ground ball rate since his debut and faces a weak offense in a great park at a low cost.
Clayton Kershaw (1) – and it’s still not even close) is nearly mortal on the road but is still better than every other pitcher. It’s really a ridiculous price tag that drops him down a bit in terms of value in an otherwise fine matchup. I don’t know that he’s affordable without taking a high upside, extremely low priced risk with your 2nd starter or just punting offense entirely on single starter sites tonight.
Hisashi Iwakuma (7) – Even though Safeco too has trouble holding him and he does face a team with some LH power, a league average strikeout rate with no walks is generally worth more than an absolutely average price tag in a great park on most nights.
Raisel Iglesias – I’m really jumping on this bandwagon if he shows that he can get into the 7th inning on a regular basis. There’s a lot of upside here in his SwStr rate and although he may occasionally allow a HR as a fly ball pitcher in a tough park, the BABIP issue seems entirely correctable and even likely to self-correct with his current batted ball and contact authority profile. The offensive environment in Arizona is the biggest drawback here.
Value Tier Two A
Jose Fernandez (2 – there’s actually a decent gap between him and #3 too) – I still have him basically tied for the #2 projected K% tonight even though Atlanta may bring that rate down from what we normally see out of him. That plus a rise in cost drop his value slightly for me. We also have to consider that he threw a season-high 112 pitches in his last start and Miami may want to limit him, though the general cluelessness in that organization could benefit DFS players today.
Cole Hamels (4t) had some past HR problems show up in his Texas debut but gets a favorable park adjustment here. I generally believe him to be over-valued or correctly valued on most nights, but think he’s in a good spot here.
Value Tier Three
Jacob deGrom (3) has been on fire and pitches in a great park, but also comes at an increased price due to the success. He gets a favorable park here and I have him tied for the #2 projected K%, but the Mets have sacrificed some outfield defense for offense here and that could be an issue in the dome they are not used to playing in. These Rays may strike out more than average and be below average vs RHP, but they also have the highest wRC+ in baseball over the last week.
Jake Odorizzi – I’m dropping him a tier from what the numbers say because I do think the Mets offense is much improved from the worst road in the majors for most of the season, but it doesn’t mean they can’t be handled by a decent pitcher in a good park. Odorizzi rarely allows the ball to leave the yard at home (just twice this year).
Julio Teheran has a great matchup against the worst offense vs RHP in the majors and has seen a big increase in the swings and misses over the last month. In an otherwise disastrous season, there are reasons he may be worth more than a middle of the board price tag tonight.
Dallas Keuchel (4t) has a favorable matchup to continue generating weak ground balls tonight, but he may lose a little something in his strikeout rate against Oakland tonight.
Gerrit Cole (6) has shown remarkable consistency this season but has the least friendly matchup among the top guys tonight.
James Shields has been more of an average pitcher over the last two-plus months, but has a great matchup against a team that struggles greatly against RHP at home tonight and has seen a decline in cost lately.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Andrew Heaney may not be nearly as good as his ERA, but matches up well at home against a team that strikes out often. The price tag is more favorable on FanDuel.
Sonny Gray is eternally accurately priced for his skill set it seems. It’s a high floor, but limited ceiling.
Jorge de la Rosa
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.