Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, June 19th
One pitcher is making his major league debut tonight. Another is making his first major league start. Yet a third is making his first start this year, while another five have no more than six major league career starts on their resume. On the one hand, this might be one of the toughest articles to write all season. On the other hand, with both Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom on the mound as well, maybe it will just be really easy. Let’s see.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may either alter or strengthen the information below.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the FanGraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | -5.6 | 3.59 | 6.37 | 2.03 | 1.03 | 4.03 | 3.48 | WAS | 92 | 100 | 121 | 19.5% | 7.7% | 21.2% | 9.2% | 7.9% |
| Adam Warren | NYY | -7.1 | 3.86 | 5.5 | 1.29 | 1.02 | 3.53 | 5.42 | DET | 104 | 105 | 106 | 19.0% | 8.3% | 21.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 9.1 | 4.19 | 6.2 | 1.44 | 1.02 | 4.23 | 3.17 | NYY | 117 | 105 | 102 | 19.3% | 7.8% | 21.1% | 10.6% | 8.1% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -5 | 2.9 | 5.94 | 1.75 | 0.94 | 2.6 | 3.52 | TAM | 90 | 95 | 122 | 23.1% | 6.5% | 19.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | -3.8 | 3.33 | 5.93 | 2.56 | 0.89 | 3.26 | 2.13 | LOS | 123 | 121 | 91 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 22.6% | 11.2% | 9.6% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | -6.3 | 2.65 | 6.84 | 1.17 | 1.08 | 2.6 | 1.52 | TEX | 91 | 93 | 100 | 28.9% | 6.8% | 15.6% | 10.1% | 6.9% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | -0.8 | 4.19 | 5.96 | 0.74 | 1.08 | 4.58 | 3.89 | CHW | 73 | 84 | 23 | 20.0% | 5.8% | 18.6% | 7.6% | 9.6% |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 7.1 | 3.71 | 5.85 | 0.94 | 1.02 | 3.75 | 3.82 | CIN | 110 | 93 | 86 | 21.0% | 6.3% | 19.7% | 12.5% | 8.7% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | -3.6 | 4.03 | 6.28 | 1.29 | 1.04 | 3.29 | 5.05 | KAN | 103 | 103 | 117 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 19.1% | 6.3% | 8.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -0.7 | 3.08 | 6.43 | 1.4 | 0.98 | 3.47 | 2.45 | ATL | 96 | 98 | 96 | 22.8% | 7.9% | 24.4% | 8.3% | 9.9% |
| James Shields | SDG | -16 | 3.58 | 6.52 | 1.23 | 1.09 | 3.4 | 3.49 | ARI | 92 | 94 | 90 | 21.8% | 7.4% | 23.5% | 11.2% | 9.7% |
| Joe Ross | WAS | -3.8 | 2.52 | 6.5 | 2.56 | 1.03 | 2.34 | 2.52 | PIT | 87 | 95 | 102 | 21.1% | 3.9% | 18.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.7 | 4.16 | 5.6 | 1.71 | 1.4 | 3.78 | 4.16 | MIL | 69 | 63 | 66 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 18.6% | 9.3% | 7.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 1.8 | 3.73 | 5.96 | 1.5 | 1.05 | 4.06 | 2.43 | MIN | 105 | 84 | 92 | 20.0% | 5.0% | 20.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | -6 | 2.95 | 6. | 1.35 | 0.85 | 2.64 | 3.57 | SEA | 95 | 87 | 58 | 24.8% | 7.0% | 17.1% | 8.3% | 5.8% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 2.8 | 3.77 | 6.06 | 0.72 | 1.05 | 3.93 | 4.08 | BAL | 88 | 105 | 153 | 20.9% | 6.7% | 19.6% | 14.1% | 8.1% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 3.4 | 3.32 | 5.91 | 0.95 | 0.93 | 3.75 | 3.31 | OAK | 112 | 110 | 122 | 19.5% | 5.8% | 20.0% | 8.0% | 9.5% |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0.98 | NYM | 77 | 89 | 91 | ||||||||
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 7.4 | 3.52 | 5.71 | 2.03 | 0.89 | 2.91 | 2.87 | SFO | 115 | 109 | 52 | 21.0% | 7.6% | 18.9% | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 1.9 | 3.88 | 6.36 | 1.91 | 1.02 | 3.35 | 3.49 | FLA | 92 | 83 | 95 | 18.7% | 5.8% | 24.4% | 16.8% | 6.1% |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 6.9 | 4.39 | 5.62 | 1.15 | 1.05 | 5.02 | 6.23 | TOR | 129 | 109 | 122 | 16.1% | 9.0% | 19.2% | 11.3% | 16.9% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 10.4 | 3.89 | 5.68 | 1.24 | 0.94 | 3.63 | 3.46 | CLE | 115 | 105 | 76 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 21.1% | 8.8% | 10.1% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 3.3 | 3.65 | 6.02 | 0.86 | 1.05 | 3.57 | 4.62 | CHC | 104 | 93 | 110 | 20.0% | 5.3% | 21.4% | 12.5% | 8.2% |
| Phillippe Aumont | PHI | -1.6 | 4.71 | 1.21 | 1.01 | 5.36 | STL | 87 | 104 | 90 | |||||||
| Roenis Elias | SEA | -5.2 | 4.09 | 5.77 | 1.29 | 0.85 | 4.01 | 4.76 | HOU | 105 | 103 | 178 | 20.9% | 9.1% | 22.1% | 13.5% | 10.8% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.3 | 3.86 | 5.87 | 1.46 | 1.09 | 3.63 | 3.64 | SDG | 89 | 88 | 75 | 21.8% | 6.6% | 20.9% | 13.7% | 6.4% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -9.3 | 3.37 | 6.56 | 1.99 | 0.93 | 3.44 | 2.51 | ANA | 88 | 97 | 95 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 18.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | -1.7 | 3.4 | 6. | 2.22 | 1.4 | 3.73 | 3.4 | COL | 91 | 95 | 56 | 20.6% | 6.0% | 17.3% | 12.4% | 10.5% |
| Tyler Lyons | STL | 6.5 | 3.27 | 4.75 | 1.16 | 1.01 | 3.72 | 2.6 | PHI | 76 | 88 | 45 | 22.8% | 6.6% | 22.3% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
| Yohan Pino | KAN | 14.4 | 3.83 | 5.46 | 0.61 | 1.04 | 3.78 | BOS | 79 | 98 | 126 |
NOTE: Alfredo Simon was listed on MLB.com as the starter for Detroit late last night, but now it’s Verlander. You’re probably not using either guy in Yankee Stadium.
Carlos Carrasco has struck out between seven and nine batters in six of his last seven starts, while the overall results have been less consistent. Unlike real baseball, strikeout consistency is more important to us. One concern might be that he’s failed to finish six innings in each of his last two starts. At home, he has a 2.60 xFIP and 21.9 K-BB% since the start of last season. His ERA estimators in the chart above trail only Sale among those with at least three career starts. Tampa Bay is a neutral matchup that plays down to favorable after a park adjustment.
Chris Heston has had some very good and not so good results, but the overall profile isn’t bad at all with a 14.9 K-BB% that’s above average. In fact, after striking out fewer than six in seven of his first nine starts, he’s struck out at least six in each of his last four (and exactly that three times). It’s not the park in San Francisco that’s propping him up either. He has a 17.6 K-BB% in six road starts with five of them coming in hitter’s parks (two in Colorado), partially explaining his 18.5 HR/FB away from home. He’s also excelled at contact management with a 1.3 Hard-Soft% this year. The Dodgers are now the second-best home offense, but still best vs RHP with a 15.5 HR/FB against them and just a 6.0 K-BB% over the last week.
Chris Sale has double-digit strikeouts and has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts. He has the best ERA estimators in the main chart, a 26.7 K-BB% at home since last season, the day’s top projected K% and K-BB%, and a 0.50 Hard-Soft% this year that leads the pack today as well. The only question is the price. If you’d like more gushing, brace yourself and move along to the SwStr chart. The Rangers are very banged up again and lean heavily LH, striking out 23.0% vs southpaws.
Jacob deGrom has at least eight strikeouts with no more than two ERs in each of his last five starts and now has a 21.7 K-BB% even better than last season. His xFIP rises a little bit to 3.47 on the road in his young career and while the matchup is fairly neutral, the Braves have just a 16.8 K% and 8.7 K-BB% vs RHP. He gets a nice bump if Freddie Freeman is out again tonight.
James Shields has allowed just one HR over his last four starts but allowed a season-high four in Arizona earlier in the season. He’s also struck out no more than six in those four starts for a 21.0 K%, so I’m not sure if this is a conscious effort made by him to cut down on the HRs. He still has an 18.6 Hard-Soft% on the season and the D’Backs adjust up to a neutral matchup at home.
Joe Ross has a 20.8 K-BB% in his two starts, striking out 12 of the 53 batters he’s faced while walking only one with 23 ground balls. He has a fairly neutral matchup against a Pittsburgh team that hasn’t hit well on the road (22.3 K%) and has a 2.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Kyle Hendricks hasn’t pitched all that well on the road, but has great control and a solid 7.8 Hard-Soft% this season. He’s allowed two or fewer ERs in four of his last five starts. The Twins struggle vs RHP with a 16.5 K-BB% and just a 7.0 Hard-Soft% against them.
Lance McCullers may not have underlying stats in line with his results, but they’re still not far off and pretty good. He has not allowed more than three ERs and only that once in six starts and in addition to all the strikeouts, he has limited contact authority to a 5.7 Hard-Soft% and -11.1% over his last two starts. He did walk a season-high four with a season-low four strikeouts against these same Mariners last time out. Seattle does hit the ball hard (14.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), but also strikes out more than average and park adjusts down to potentially the best matchup of the night. That gets even better if Seattle is missing Cano and/or Seager tonight, both of whom were late scratches last night.
Matt Shoemaker hasn’t sustained his marks from his rookie season, but has pitched better recently. Early season velocity concerns aren’t as much so as he’s pushed the fastball back over 90 since April according to Brooks Baseball. He’s generating a 17.2 K-BB% that isn’t far below last season’s rate, but does have a 33.3 Hard% this season. The A’s are a tough offense that is hitting the ball well currently and now have the second-best wRC+ in the majors vs RHP. They strike out just 15.3% of the time at home, but do that with just a 6.5 HR/FB rate, assisting Shoemaker with his biggest issue this season, a 14.4 HR/FB. They’re still not a favorable matchup here, but park adjust down to a lot less dangerous than they look upon first glance at the chart above.
Matt Wisler was the top get for the Braves in the Kimbrell trade. He has two above average pitches (fastball, slider) with a curveball and changeup that have a chance to be average also in his arsenal with decent command. He has a 4.29 ERA at AAA in 65 innings this season, but a 3.34 FIP about a run lower due to just a 64.0 LOB%. A 13.2 K-BB% stems more from an exceptional walk rate (4.8%) than his ability to miss bats (18.0 K%). He starts with a nice matchup against a Mets offense that hasn’t really hit at all on the road all season (17.3 K-BB%).
Mike Bolsinger has only allowed more than two ERs in one of his eight starts and that was a total of four runs in Colorado. He misses bats at about a league average and also walks batters slightly higher than that, but hasn’t had more than three in a game yet. The Giants have a more than formidable offense, which is best in the majors on the road and tied for third vs RHP. They have just a 16.8 K% vs righties but have been ice cold over the last week with just a team 2.7 Hard-Soft%. The park adjustment keeps this from being an overall unfavorable matchup for Bolsinger.
Mike Leake has a 3.35 xFIP at home since the start of last season with a league average K%, but 14.7 HR/FB. After a horrible May, he’s been a bit better this month, although managed to strike out just a single Cub in his last start. The Marlins are a bad offense that remain a solid matchup here because while the park plays well for power, it’s not a massive hitter’s environment overall. Miami does have a 14.0 HR/FB on the road but has little left-handed power to face Leake, who’s allowed most of his HRs to lefties this year. The Marlins have a 9.8 HR/FB vs RHP and are the 3rd worst offense against them overall.
Nate Karns had two rough starts against the Angels before getting straightened out against the White Sox in his last start. He’s been basically a league average pitcher for the Rays since getting his HR and walk issues from April under control. I still have difficulty buying into his strikeout rate, but that doesn’t make him un-useful. A 34.1 Hard% is still a bit concerning. Cleveland is a good home offense (10.8 BB%) and above average vs RHP, but hasn’t hit well over the last week and park adjust down to about neutral.
Rubby de la Rosa is not this bad. I keep saying that and he keeps getting tattooed. At some point, I wouldn’t blame you for tuning out, especially at home, but he’s only allowed five of his 14 HRs this year there. He has two solid starts on the board vs San Diego this year (13 IP – 3 ER – 12 K) and has a 16.3 K-BB% on the season. When contact has been made, he’s been hit hard more often than not though. The Padres represent a favorable matchup even with the park adjustment here and have just an 8.7 HR/FB on the road. They have a 30.0 K% over the last week though with a 21.7 Hard-Soft%.
Sonny Gray has excelled at contact management this year (1.2 Hard-Soft%) and does have above average walk and strikeout rates with a favorable park adjusted matchup. He’s allowed more than two ERs only twice this year. The problem is that his peripherals only paint him as very good and not the best pitcher in the AL that his ERA sees.
Tyler Lyons hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any of his four starts, but that could change today. What he has done is allow four HRs, but generate lots of strikeouts (27.7%). He had a similarly high K rate in AAA this season and in limited work at the major league level last season. Tonight, he faces the worst home offense in baseball. A neutral home park still leaves them as one of the top three matchups tonight. They basically counter both Lyons’ strength and weakness as they don’t strike out a lot but have just a 7.0 HR/FB vs LHP.
Yohan Pino hasn’t started a major league game since last year when he started 11 for the Twins. The results were not good due to a 63.0 LOB%, but he did have excellent control with nearly a league average K%, leading to a 14.0 K-BB%. The Red Sox are a bad road offense but do combine an average walk rate with a low strikeout rate, making them a bit of a nuisance to use pitchers against.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
A.J. Burnett (.297 BABIP – 83.3 LOB% – 5.2 HR/FB) – He’s been good, but the problem is he’s priced as a borderline Cy Young contender on a few sites, has a 4.03 xFIP on the road since the start of last season, and isn’t in a particularly good spot here.
Adam Warren (.257 BABIP – 74.2 LOB% – 10.7 HR/FB) – He’s also in a pretty rough spot.
Dan Haren (.226 BABIP – 83.6 LOB% – 11.2 HR/FB)
Eduardo Rodriguez (.212 BABIP – 70.3 LOB% – 8.3 HR/FB) – While he has a lot of talent, he’s in a tough spot that will probably hurt his K rate tonight.
Roenis Elias (.291 BABIP – 78.7 LOB% – 10.6 HR/FB) – None of these numbers are far from normal, but he does have just an 8.5 K-BB% and faces a team with a 14.5 HR/FB vs LHP, while their corresponding 23.3 K% vs lefties isn’t the sizeable upside it once was absent other positive factors.
NO THANK YOU
Jorge de la Rosa
Phil Hughes – While the Cubs should increase his strikeout rate, they’re not really a favorable matchup and his SwStr rate is just putrid this year and even worse this month.
Phillippe Aumont must be Jeff Francoeur in disguise. He has been pitching at AAA since 2011 with a double digit walk rate each year and the same in 40 career major league innings.
Taylor Jungmann – He’s been good, but Colorado.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 21.9% | 8.9% | Road | 19.1% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 3.5% |
| Adam Warren | Yankees | 19.6% | 8.8% | Home | 20.6% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 12.0% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 15.9% | 7.2% | Road | 15.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 6.3% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 24.9% | 5.9% | Home | 27.7% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 6.3% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 21.2% | 7.0% | Road | 22.2% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 30.9% | 7.3% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 29.4% | 5.6% | Home | 32.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 44.8% | 6.9% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 17.7% | 5.9% | Road | 17.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 3.5% |
| Dan Haren | Marlins | 19.8% | 4.9% | Road | 19.7% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 4.2% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 21.8% | 9.9% | Road | 26.9% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 12.5% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 26.0% | 6.7% | Road | 24.4% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 7.0% |
| James Shields | Padres | 21.1% | 6.0% | Road | 22.4% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 7.8% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | 22.6% | 1.9% | Home | 19.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 1.9% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 18.2% | 9.3% | Home | 19.7% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 17.6% | 4.7% | Road | 16.1% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 0.0% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 28.4% | 7.1% | Road | 26.5% | 2.0% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 9.3% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 21.3% | 6.9% | Home | 21.0% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 5.9% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 22.8% | 4.8% | Road | 20.3% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 2.0% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | ||||
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 21.3% | 8.0% | Home | 22.3% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 31.9% | 10.6% |
| Mike Leake | Reds | 16.1% | 6.0% | Home | 20.5% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 2.1% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | 15.1% | 5.9% | Road | 15.7% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 13.6% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 22.5% | 9.4% | Road | 25.0% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 5.5% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 18.9% | 2.9% | Home | 18.8% | 2.2% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 3.6% |
| Phillippe Aumont | Phillies | 15.9% | 12.7% | Home | 33.3% | 22.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Roenis Elias | Mariners | 19.7% | 9.1% | Home | 20.3% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 14.5% | 9.2% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 18.7% | 6.9% | Home | 20.2% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 5.4% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 22.1% | 7.6% | Home | 21.1% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 1.8% |
| Taylor Jungmann | Brewers | 20.0% | 6.0% | Road | 19.2% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.0% |
| Tyler Lyons | Cardinals | 24.5% | 7.5% | Road | 24.7% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 5.0% |
| Yohan Pino | Royals | 20.0% | 5.1% | Home | 20.4% | 3.9% | L14 Days |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 21.2% | 8.0% | RH | 20.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 16.7% | 8.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.3% | 8.5% | RH | 19.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.5% | 8.5% | RH | 19.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.4% | 9.3% |
| Rays | Road | 20.8% | 7.0% | RH | 21.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.1% | 6.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.0% | 9.1% | RH | 19.6% | 10.0% | L7Days | 16.3% | 10.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 22.4% | 7.3% | LH | 23.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.7% | 7.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.8% | 7.2% | RH | 19.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 25.1% | 5.1% |
| Reds | Home | 19.3% | 9.0% | RH | 18.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.2% | 6.1% |
| Royals | Home | 14.3% | 6.1% | LH | 14.5% | 5.6% | L7Days | 12.7% | 5.3% |
| Braves | Home | 17.7% | 8.8% | RH | 16.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 20.8% | 8.2% | RH | 19.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.3% | 6.2% | RH | 19.7% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.3% | 6.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.3% | 5.3% | LH | 23.0% | 6.5% | L7Days | 22.4% | 3.6% |
| Twins | Home | 18.5% | 6.3% | RH | 20.9% | 6.4% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.6% | 7.5% | RH | 22.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.9% | 8.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.6% | 6.8% | RH | 22.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 15.3% | 8.0% | RH | 17.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 8.6% |
| Mets | Road | 23.5% | 6.2% | RH | 20.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 20.4% | 6.9% |
| Giants | Road | 18.1% | 7.3% | RH | 16.8% | 7.5% | L7Days | 15.8% | 7.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.0% | 5.8% | RH | 20.6% | 6.0% | L7Days | 22.4% | 8.2% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 17.2% | 9.7% | RH | 20.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.4% |
| Indians | Home | 18.5% | 10.8% | RH | 18.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.1% | 8.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 24.6% | 8.2% | RH | 25.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.7% | 6.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.0% | 7.1% | RH | 18.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.8% | 6.4% |
| Astros | Road | 23.9% | 7.6% | LH | 23.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.5% | 10.7% |
| Padres | Road | 21.6% | 7.6% | RH | 22.3% | 6.4% | L7Days | 30.0% | 5.8% |
| Angels | Road | 19.4% | 7.2% | RH | 19.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 16.6% | 7.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 17.9% | 6.6% | RH | 20.2% | 5.8% | L7Days | 26.0% | 7.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 19.0% | 6.4% | LH | 19.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.7% | 4.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 16.9% | 8.6% | RH | 16.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 17.2% | 7.9% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 20.5% | 8.8% | 5.7% | Road | 20.5% | 8.6% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Adam Warren | Yankees | 21.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | Home | 21.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.7% | 20.0% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 21.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | Road | 22.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 19.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | Home | 18.7% | 8.8% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 22.9% | 11.1% | 14.8% | Road | 23.8% | 18.5% | 22.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 19.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | Home | 20.2% | 8.6% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 3.7% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 21.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | Road | 22.2% | 8.2% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 7.0% | 0.0% | 4.3% |
| Dan Haren | Marlins | 20.0% | 11.3% | 10.4% | Road | 19.8% | 14.2% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 17.9% | 8.3% | 4.2% | Road | 16.1% | 0.0% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 24.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | Road | 21.7% | 10.2% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| James Shields | Padres | 21.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% | Road | 18.8% | 14.5% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | 15.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 19.8% | 11.2% | 7.9% | Home | 18.7% | 13.0% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 18.5% | 7.5% | 11.6% | Road | 18.3% | 5.7% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 17.0% | 3.2% | 6.5% | Road | 20.6% | 10.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 18.3% | 11.5% | 13.5% | Home | 20.2% | 10.8% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 20.1% | 11.1% | 6.6% | Road | 20.4% | 10.8% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 0.0% | 11.8% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | ||||||
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 19.2% | 11.5% | 2.6% | Home | 16.3% | 12.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Leake | Reds | 21.8% | 14.4% | 6.3% | Home | 21.5% | 14.7% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | 18.9% | 11.8% | 14.7% | Road | 16.2% | 13.3% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 17.6% | 13.6% | 8.0% | Road | 15.3% | 6.1% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 24.2% | 8.8% | 10.8% | Home | 22.1% | 9.6% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| Phillippe Aumont | Phillies | 27.9% | 21.4% | 0.0% | Home | 0.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Roenis Elias | Mariners | 21.1% | 10.3% | 11.6% | Home | 22.8% | 8.8% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 5.9% | 11.8% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 20.9% | 14.4% | 7.7% | Home | 19.0% | 13.0% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 17.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | Home | 18.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Taylor Jungmann | Brewers | 14.7% | 11.1% | 22.2% | Road | 11.1% | 16.7% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 11.1% | 22.2% |
| Tyler Lyons | Cardinals | 20.5% | 12.7% | 5.1% | Road | 20.3% | 8.7% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Yohan Pino | Royals | 22.7% | 8.2% | 10.9% | Home | 21.8% | 3.2% | 12.7% | L14 Days |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 18.8% | 12.2% | 7.9% | RH | 20.7% | 13.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.8% | 12.1% | 10.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.9% | 10.0% | 5.4% | RH | 21.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.2% | 10.6% | 10.6% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.9% | 15.1% | 9.1% | RH | 21.7% | 13.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% |
| Rays | Road | 21.7% | 9.4% | 9.4% | RH | 21.7% | 9.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.3% | 13.7% | 8.5% | RH | 21.6% | 15.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.5% | 3.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.3% | 10.7% | 8.1% | LH | 20.2% | 10.8% | 9.9% | L7Days | 11.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.4% | 11.4% | 10.5% | RH | 21.6% | 9.5% | 11.2% | L7Days | 18.1% | 7.7% | 10.3% |
| Reds | Home | 23.2% | 15.9% | 8.9% | RH | 20.9% | 11.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.7% | 12.3% | 4.6% |
| Royals | Home | 21.7% | 6.3% | 10.9% | LH | 23.8% | 7.6% | 10.3% | L7Days | 19.7% | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Braves | Home | 22.0% | 8.0% | 10.5% | RH | 22.9% | 8.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.5% | 3.3% | 11.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.8% | 11.6% | 8.6% | RH | 21.2% | 10.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.0% | 6.7% | 15.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | RH | 21.7% | 9.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 18.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | LH | 13.8% | 12.6% | 5.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 2.0% | 11.8% |
| Twins | Home | 21.7% | 10.6% | 10.2% | RH | 20.7% | 8.3% | 12.5% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.3% | 10.5% | 6.6% | RH | 19.8% | 10.2% | 6.3% | L7Days | 16.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 18.8% | 11.5% | 7.7% | RH | 21.1% | 14.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.3% | 23.3% | 6.8% |
| Athletics | Home | 20.4% | 6.5% | 9.6% | RH | 21.3% | 9.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.7% | 10.1% | 13.0% |
| Mets | Road | 24.6% | 9.5% | 11.3% | RH | 23.4% | 8.4% | 12.4% | L7Days | 22.5% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Giants | Road | 24.3% | 12.0% | 7.0% | RH | 21.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.2% | 2.0% | 5.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.9% | 14.0% | 8.5% | RH | 21.1% | 9.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 19.4% | 14.3% | 8.2% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.9% | 15.6% | 15.0% | RH | 19.1% | 13.5% | 13.9% | L7Days | 22.3% | 13.4% | 20.9% |
| Indians | Home | 22.5% | 8.8% | 11.5% | RH | 20.8% | 10.3% | 12.2% | L7Days | 22.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.1% | 12.7% | 8.8% | RH | 20.4% | 12.4% | 10.9% | L7Days | 22.0% | 12.7% | 5.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.1% | 9.9% | 11.7% | RH | 23.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.4% | 13.0% |
| Astros | Road | 24.0% | 12.1% | 12.1% | LH | 20.0% | 14.5% | 10.1% | L7Days | 19.6% | 29.5% | 4.9% |
| Padres | Road | 20.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | RH | 19.7% | 10.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.2% | 17.3% | 7.7% |
| Angels | Road | 18.4% | 10.9% | 7.3% | RH | 20.2% | 11.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.5% | 11.8% | 8.8% | RH | 20.9% | 14.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.6% | 9.2% | 1.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | LH | 22.6% | 7.0% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.6% | 5.0% | 15.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.7% | 8.6% | 15.0% | RH | 20.2% | 9.8% | 12.3% | L7Days | 18.3% | 10.3% | 9.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.10 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 21.8% | 8.7% | 2.51 | 22.8% | 8.5% | 2.68 |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 15.1% | 7.7% | 1.96 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 1.99 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 18.0% | 8.7% | 2.07 | 22.3% | 10.9% | 2.05 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 27.4% | 12.0% | 2.28 | 26.8% | 10.6% | 2.53 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 21.5% | 9.0% | 2.39 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 2.78 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 32.7% | 15.9% | 2.06 | 43.3% | 20.0% | 2.17 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 18.3% | 7.3% | 2.51 | 14.8% | 6.5% | 2.28 |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 18.1% | 6.0% | 3.02 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 3.09 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.91 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.91 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 26.8% | 12.0% | 2.23 | 35.1% | 14.3% | 2.45 |
| James Shields | SDG | 28.5% | 13.9% | 2.05 | 25.3% | 14.1% | 1.79 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.35 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.35 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 23.6% | 13.1% | 1.80 | 22.8% | 13.7% | 1.66 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.89 | 23.8% | 9.5% | 2.51 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 28.4% | 9.9% | 2.87 | 28.9% | 10.8% | 2.68 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 19.3% | 10.5% | 1.84 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 1.89 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 22.5% | 9.6% | 2.34 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 2.20 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | ||||||
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 22.8% | 9.0% | 2.53 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 2.64 |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 13.9% | 5.9% | 2.36 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 2.25 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 15.1% | 6.3% | 2.40 | 12.8% | 5.7% | 2.25 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 21.9% | 7.6% | 2.88 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 2.77 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 14.5% | 5.3% | 2.74 | 11.7% | 3.6% | 3.25 |
| Phillippe Aumont | PHI | ||||||
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 17.3% | 8.8% | 1.97 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 1.71 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 22.4% | 12.2% | 1.84 | 23.1% | 14.8% | 1.56 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 23.9% | 10.3% | 2.32 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 2.12 |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 20.0% | 6.6% | 3.03 | 20.0% | 6.6% | 3.03 |
| Tyler Lyons | STL | 27.7% | 9.4% | 2.95 | 30.0% | 12.7% | 2.36 |
| Yohan Pino | KAN | 22.8% | 7.4% | 3.08 |
Chris Sale has a SwStr% over the last month that’s league average for a K%. It’s been at least 20% in each of his last three starts. His 15.9 SwStr% for the season is best in the majors, beating Kershaw by 0.8 points, which is the gap between second and fifth place. It is the second-highest SwStr% ever recorded to Randy Johnson’s 16.4% in 2002, which is the first year we have SwStr stats for. The last time a pitcher had SwStr above 15% was 2004 (Johan Santana) and it’s happened only three times total.
James Shields – The good news is that his SwStr rate has remained in double digits in three of his last four starts where he’s allowed the one total HR. In the fifth start back before this streak started, still within the last 30 days, he had a 17.7 SwStr%, propping his recent mark in the chart above up a bit.
Kyle Hendricks – I’m still not fully in on his K rate this season, but he’s increased his SwStr% to at least a league average mark over the last month, so we’ll wait and see if that continues. He does benefit from a solid pitch framer in Montero, who’s at +5.9 RAA for the season.
Lance McCullers has the benefit of a good pitch framer in Jason Castro (+6.0 RAA) and did have a double digit SwStr% in three consecutive starts before just 4.4% last time out. We’re still dealing with a small sample, but I’d expect at least a small drop in his overall K%, but around a quarter of his batters faced wouldn’t be out of the question.
Nate Karns had a jump in his SwStr% in May where he was in double digits in four of five starts and was also in double digits in his last start, but 1.9% and 5.6% marks against the Angels in his first two June starts destroyed a lot of that good. It’s really been a lot of ups and downs with not a single mark between 7.6% and 10.6%, though that’s pretty much where his season rate lies. It makes it very tricky to attempt to project for a particular game. Maybe you have to look more at the opposition? Rene Rivera (+5.6 RAA) is a good framer, a common theme among all of the high K/SwStr guys today.
Rubby de la Rosa has an elite SwStr% that is even healthier over the last month. It’s been in double digits in 10 of 13 starts this year and only below 9.3% once. I expected to see him suffer from some bad catcher framing after the Padres traded away all their positive ones this off-season, but it seems the organization is good at teaching the skill because Derek Norris is at +2.4 RAA this year.
Tyler Lyons is still dealing with a small sample, but his SwStr% is much more in line with his 23.2 K% last year, which is still very good.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.88 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.88 xFIP – 3.88 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 1.89 | 3.36 | 1.47 | 3.23 | 1.34 | 2.74 | 0.85 | 2.67 | 2.8 | 0.13 | 2.76 | 0.09 | 2.27 | -0.4 |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 3.78 | 4.7 | 0.92 | 4.55 | 0.77 | 4.54 | 0.76 | 2.9 | 4.67 | 1.77 | 4.64 | 1.74 | 5.07 | 2.17 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 2.58 | 4.23 | 1.65 | 4.06 | 1.48 | 3.47 | 0.89 | 1.71 | 3.87 | 2.16 | 3.82 | 2.11 | 2.88 | 1.17 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 4.38 | 2.89 | -1.49 | 2.85 | -1.53 | 2.67 | -1.71 | 3.52 | 3.05 | -0.47 | 3.13 | -0.39 | 2.62 | -0.9 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 3.76 | 3.25 | -0.51 | 3.25 | -0.51 | 3.33 | -0.43 | 3.82 | 2.99 | -0.83 | 3.18 | -0.64 | 3.72 | -0.1 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.01 | 2.48 | -0.53 | 2.67 | -0.34 | 2.49 | -0.52 | 1.45 | 1.43 | -0.02 | 1.72 | 0.27 | 1.6 | 0.15 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 4.37 | 4.11 | -0.26 | 4.44 | 0.07 | 3.5 | -0.87 | 6.53 | 4.34 | -2.19 | 4.73 | -1.8 | 4.09 | -2.44 |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 3.22 | 4.18 | 0.96 | 4.38 | 1.16 | 4.46 | 1.24 | 2.84 | 4.15 | 1.31 | 4.46 | 1.62 | 4.53 | 1.69 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 3.55 | 4.02 | 0.47 | 3.99 | 0.44 | 3.7 | 0.15 | 3.55 | 4.03 | 0.48 | 3.99 | 0.44 | 3.7 | 0.15 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2.33 | 2.91 | 0.58 | 2.79 | 0.46 | 2.73 | 0.4 | 1.21 | 1.88 | 0.67 | 1.73 | 0.52 | 1.26 | 0.05 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.59 | 2.96 | -0.63 | 3.07 | -0.52 | 4.13 | 0.54 | 3.2 | 3.22 | 0.02 | 3.19 | -0.01 | 3.31 | 0.11 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 3.46 | 2.52 | -0.94 | 2.46 | -1 | 1.49 | -1.97 | 3.46 | 2.52 | -0.94 | 2.46 | -1 | 1.49 | -1.97 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 4.91 | 4.01 | -0.9 | 3.74 | -1.17 | 3.71 | -1.2 | 3.33 | 4.34 | 1.01 | 4.14 | 0.81 | 4.42 | 1.09 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.8 | 3.37 | -0.43 | 3.45 | -0.35 | 3.45 | -0.35 | 2.25 | 2.79 | 0.54 | 2.81 | 0.56 | 2.98 | 0.73 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 2 | 2.95 | 0.95 | 3.17 | 1.17 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 2.01 | 2.78 | 0.77 | 3.08 | 1.07 | 2.24 | 0.23 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 4.24 | 4.11 | -0.13 | 4.37 | 0.13 | 4.38 | 0.14 | 4.78 | 4.44 | -0.34 | 4.51 | -0.27 | 3.85 | -0.93 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.85 | 3.58 | -1.27 | 3.81 | -1.04 | 4.44 | -0.41 | 3.86 | 3.81 | -0.05 | 3.84 | -0.02 | 3.04 | -0.82 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | ||||||||||||||
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 2.25 | 3.56 | 1.31 | 3.43 | 1.18 | 2.98 | 0.73 | 2.93 | 3.46 | 0.53 | 3.29 | 0.36 | 2.71 | -0.22 |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 4.35 | 4.2 | -0.15 | 3.93 | -0.42 | 4.86 | 0.51 | 5.79 | 4.2 | -1.59 | 3.9 | -1.89 | 4.85 | -0.94 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 4.13 | 4.39 | 0.26 | 4.57 | 0.44 | 4.73 | 0.6 | 5.57 | 4.9 | -0.67 | 5.25 | -0.32 | 5.87 | 0.3 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 3.67 | 3.99 | 0.32 | 3.98 | 0.31 | 4.15 | 0.48 | 3.49 | 3.99 | 0.5 | 3.84 | 0.35 | 3.74 | 0.25 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4.79 | 4.26 | -0.53 | 4.14 | -0.65 | 4.59 | -0.2 | 4.83 | 4.58 | -0.25 | 4.33 | -0.5 | 4.62 | -0.21 |
| Phillippe Aumont | PHI | ||||||||||||||
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 3.67 | 4.46 | 0.79 | 4.41 | 0.74 | 4.39 | 0.72 | 3.96 | 4.78 | 0.82 | 4.8 | 0.84 | 4.18 | 0.22 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 5.27 | 3.4 | -1.87 | 3.33 | -1.94 | 4.29 | -0.98 | 7.45 | 3.24 | -4.21 | 3.23 | -4.22 | 4.86 | -2.59 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 1.6 | 3.17 | 1.57 | 3.23 | 1.63 | 2.56 | 0.96 | 1.59 | 2.88 | 1.29 | 2.96 | 1.37 | 2.85 | 1.26 |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 2.25 | 3.4 | 1.15 | 3.74 | 1.49 | 3.77 | 1.52 | 2.25 | 3.4 | 1.15 | 3.74 | 1.49 | 3.77 | 1.52 |
| Tyler Lyons | STL | 5 | 3.05 | -1.95 | 2.71 | -2.29 | 4.44 | -0.56 | 3.6 | 2.6 | -1 | 2.42 | -1.18 | 6.5 | 2.9 |
| Yohan Pino | KAN | 0.64 | 3.06 | 2.42 | 3.57 | 2.93 | 2.6 | 1.96 |
Carlos Carrasco has a .342 BABIP that isn’t much higher than the .319 mark his team allows. This has hurt his 67.8 LOB% that isn’t too far out of range though. He has an exceptional 21.6 K-BB%, but we can’t blame it all on his defense with a 31.2 Hard% that’s not what you’d like to see when contact is made. These factors might make it difficult to pull his ERA all the way down to his estimators. Something about a quarter of a run higher might be in order.
Lance McCullers has just a 3.2 HR/FB and that came on the road against the White Sox in a tough park. He hasn’t really pitched in a pitcher’s park yet, so I don’t know if Safeco is where I’d expect that to break, but it will increase eventually. He also has a .241 BABIP that isn’t backed by any great indicators, but a reasonable 77.4 LOB%. He has some great estimators, better than I expected he would, but they’re still about a run higher than his current ERA.
Matt Shoemaker – We already talked about this above, but his 14.4 HR/FB separates his ERA and FIP from the other estimators. He hasn’t allowed a HR in four starts though and is in a good park to see that continue tonight against a team with little HR power at home.
Mike Bolsinger has seen his ERA rise closer to his estimators, which haven’t changed, over the last month. This is almost entirely the result of a significant drop in LOB to 73.6% over the last 30 days. It’s still at 82% for the season though. HRs plagued him in Arizona last year (15.9 HR/FB) and I’d expect that to improve moving to LA, but don’t expect a 5.9 HR/FB to be much more sustainable.
Rubby de la Rosa – An 18.1 Hard-Soft% is part of an 18.9 HR/FB, which contributes to a 66.4 LOB%. It’s hard to say he’ll meet his xFIP and SIERA, but there’s still hope such a high HR rate should regress some, even in Arizona, and make him at least a league average real life pitcher, while an enticing fantasy option due to a high strikeout rate.
Sonny Gray has a .249 BABIP. He’s generating a good IFFB rate this year, almost double last year’s rate and despite all their other faults, the Oakland defense has been good at suppressing hits on balls in play. Add a great park to his just a 21.0 Hard% and you start to envision an ability to suppress HRs too, but a 4.8 HR/FB is too good to believe, as is an 84.3 LOB%. He would seem to possess some of the tools, both under his control and given to him situationally, to potentially be able to beat his estimators, but even the best pitchers have only ever done that by about a half a run consistently in their prime. He’s still in line for a jump of about a run in his ERA.
Tyler Lyons has a .340 BABIP and hasn’t generated a pop up in four starts yet. A 37.0 Hard% is scary and you can see it in both a 29.4 LD% and 26.7 HR/FB. You’d expect all of those numbers to regress if he hopes to stay in the majors, but he has definitely deserved his results thus far.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 0.290 | 0.297 | 0.007 | 6.9% | 92.2% |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 0.305 | 0.257 | -0.048 | 12.0% | 88.8% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 0.283 | 0.265 | -0.018 | 8.9% | 87.6% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.318 | 0.342 | 0.024 | 7.7% | 86.2% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 0.284 | 0.310 | 0.026 | 15.7% | 87.7% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.326 | 0.290 | -0.036 | 5.3% | 73.7% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.285 | 0.295 | 0.01 | 8.4% | 90.2% |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 0.294 | 0.226 | -0.068 | 12.9% | 91.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.300 | 0.212 | -0.088 | 4.2% | 87.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.295 | 0.273 | -0.022 | 8.7% | 85.4% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.313 | 0.307 | -0.006 | 11.0% | 81.8% |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.323 | 0.325 | 0.002 | 0.0% | 90.3% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.308 | 0.292 | -0.016 | 0.0% | 82.2% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.296 | 0.299 | 0.003 | 7.7% | 90.3% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.282 | 0.241 | -0.041 | 6.5% | 88.8% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.276 | 0.274 | -0.002 | 10.8% | 81.8% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.274 | 0.272 | -0.002 | 10.0% | 88.9% |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 0.298 | ||||
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 0.295 | 0.270 | -0.025 | 0.0% | 90.6% |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 0.280 | 0.262 | -0.018 | 7.6% | 95.2% |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 0.283 | 0.264 | -0.019 | 14.7% | 89.8% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 0.282 | 0.257 | -0.025 | 6.7% | 88.1% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.296 | 0.315 | 0.019 | 11.5% | 92.1% |
| Phillippe Aumont | PHI | 0.304 | ||||
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 0.285 | 0.291 | 0.006 | 15.2% | 86.5% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.295 | 0.304 | 0.009 | 5.4% | 81.3% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.282 | 0.249 | -0.033 | 13.3% | 86.7% |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 0.311 | 0.265 | -0.046 | 22.2% | 92.3% |
| Tyler Lyons | STL | 0.291 | 0.340 | 0.049 | 0.0% | 88.4% |
| Yohan Pino | KAN | 0.269 | 0.268 | -0.001 | 10.5% | 91.5% |
Chris Sale has a BABIP that only makes noise because the White Sox have been so bad defensively. He doesn’t generate a lot of pop ups, but is so hard to square up that you really can’t complain. His Z-Contact% leads the majors with a large gap between him and Kershaw (again) at 77.1%. Remember what we said about his SwStr% before. Well, his 73.7 Z-Contact% is the best ever in the Pitchf/x era (since 2002). Johan Santana (2004) holds the current best mark (74.6%).
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Carlos Carrasco is a fairly obvious name today. You’ll have to live with some hard contact, but the K rate is what excites us and keeps us coming back. The Rays don’t pose too much of a threat and strikeout about a league average amount on the road and vs RHP. He’s not cheap, but affordable for the upside he brings to the table.
Chris Heston has seen his price rise after the no-hitter, but still sits around mid-range. Normally, we’d shy away from a matchup with the Dodgers in LA, but he’s catching them at a good time and there still may be some value here. Heston has been at least a little above average at basically everything this year while his greatest strength has been exceptional contact management.
Chris Sale is the obvious top overall guy today with an expected strikeout rate bordering on absurd. He is priced as such though, bringing his value back down to the rest of the pack of useful guys today mostly because the park does not enhance the matchup. I expect him to face at least four or five lefties in the lineup tonight and dominate. You have to hit the ball to hit it out of even the toughest parks. I’d probably try to find a way to fit him in your double ups.
Jacob deGrom has been merely good instead of great on the road throughout his young career and faces an offense with good plate discipline that could limit his upside. This is a bit of an issue where he and Sonny Gray are basically tied for the #2 price tag. Interestingly, I see their value as equal for different reasons. He should still be able to generate a K rate above 20% and be useful if not generating a ton of value past his cost. He gets a nice bump if Freeman is out of the lineup again.
James Shields – The recent drop in K rate might have something to do with a corresponding drop in HR rate, but we can’t be sure and there has been no drop in price coming back to a park where he allowed four HRs the last time he pitched here. There are some positive signs in his SwStr% still over the last month, so I’m not really giving up on him. I just don’t think he provides excess value beyond his price tag often enough here.
Joe Ross – I don’t have a price tag on him, but expect him to show up around the site minimums. If that’s the case, he’s pitched well in two starts and is in a decent enough spot where he might be worth a dumpster diving special tonight.
Kyle Hendricks – I’m not completely buying into the strikeout rate, but he does enough other favorable things (BB%, contact authority) that he’s worth considering at an affordable price in a decent spot against a team that struggles to hit RHP.
Lance McCullers – Again, I’m not completely buying into his K rate, but he is missing bats at a double-digit SwStr rate and is in a great spot here that gets even better if Cano and Seager are still ailing tonight. At a mid-range price tag, he might be my #2 overall guy behind Sale and potential top value.
Matt Shoemaker has a HR problem, outside of which he’s essentially the same pitcher as last season. A good park against an offense that doesn’t hit for a ton of power should help that HR rate. This all comes at a mid-range price tag. Keep in mind though, that Oakland doesn’t strike out a lot, potentially dropping his K rate under 20% tonight.
Matt Wisler is in a good spot tonight, but isn’t at the minimum price on DK (the one site I found him earlier) and isn’t really a huge strikeout upside kind of guy.
Mike Bolsinger is another mid-range price tag worth considering. The Giants have a good offense, but haven’t been great over the last week and continue a string of pitcher’s parks going from home to Seattle to LA. They don’t strike out a lot either, but Bolsinger should still be able to generate enough swings and misses to leave him with some value. He may not be what his ERA says he is, but he’s pitched well and been a find for the Dodgers.
Mike Leake has pitched better lately and though he has a HR problem, faces a team without much LH power. Stanton could pose a problem for him, but few others in that lineup should. I like the matchup and Miami’s inability to hit RHP at an affordable price more than I do him.
Nate Karns is similarly affordable and about a league average pitcher in a decent park, making the matchup against Cleveland about neutral. The biggest concern would be good plate discipline numbers from Cleveland that could exploit his earlier control issues.
Rubby de la Rosa has some great upside with a good matchup. His price tag is on the lower half of the board for a reason though. It’s a tough park for a guy with contact management and severe HR problems. He isn’t so different this year from the pitcher he faces tonight, but at a much more affordable price.
Sonny Gray – I have him right around the bottom of my top five overall today, which is fine. It’s even very good, but you’re paying a top two or three price for it. He may be a little bit better in real life than he is for your fantasy team. I’m not going to say not to use him, at least in double ups, but you’re paying for what you get. At a similar price, I’d opt for deGrom if Freeman is out, where it’s more of a toss-up if he’s not.
Tyler Lyons can generate some strikeouts at a very reasonable price. Unfortunately, he’s not cheap enough to qualify as a dumpster diving special, but still plenty affordable in the Mike Leake and Nate Karns range and a potentially sneaky top value tonight. He does allow a lot of hard contact, but it’s the Phillies. They have an absurd -3.5 Hard-Soft% vs LHP.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.