Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, September 11th
I know what you’re thinking. What is this? This doesn’t look like football. Doesn’t this guy know that there’s football this weekend? What’s this baseball stuff? Bear with me a minute here. Yes, we’re all happy to have daily fantasy football back, but they are still playing baseball. Why should you care? All those daily fantasy commercials you’ve been bombarded with in order to generate new players, a lot of them played football last night, but there’s no NFL tonight. What are they going to do with all that money sitting there until Sunday? Maybe they’re going to play baseball tonight. And if you’re one of those new depositors looking for some action tonight, welcome. You’re in the right place.
What we try to do here is use advanced stats to come to conclusions that casual fans may not when they look at things like Wins or even ERA, which don’t always paint the correct picture. Sometimes we just enforce the obvious conclusion, but occasionally we discover some interesting things and find ourselves off the beaten path, which can be a good thing in daily fantasy.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | PHI | -3.9 | 5.45 | 4.55 | 0.72 | 1.01 | 5.97 | 5.45 | CHC | 94 | 97 | 138 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 18.7% | 13.6% | 3.3% |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 1.4 | 3.7 | 6.19 | 1.49 | 1.09 | 3.85 | 4.19 | ARI | 95 | 95 | 84 | 20.7% | 7.9% | 20.9% | 10.8% | 7.6% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | -7.4 | 3.76 | 6.31 | 1.56 | 0.87 | 4.42 | 4.34 | SFO | 111 | 107 | 128 | 17.6% | 7.4% | 23.0% | 10.2% | 7.2% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | -3.4 | 4.22 | 5.69 | 1.65 | 0.85 | 4.32 | 4.26 | SEA | 104 | 100 | 133 | 17.8% | 7.5% | 22.0% | 13.4% | 6.3% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | -1.1 | 3.77 | 6. | 2.59 | 0.91 | 3.75 | 4.08 | MIL | 87 | 91 | 115 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 21.5% | 7.8% | 12.0% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 7.1 | 3.26 | 6.16 | 1.44 | 0.94 | 3.02 | 4.57 | BOS | 84 | 99 | 148 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 19.4% | 11.0% | 8.4% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 0.4 | 4.75 | 5.92 | 1.55 | 0.94 | 4.86 | 4.62 | DET | 103 | 101 | 87 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 20.4% | 9.2% | 12.0% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 4.5 | 4.32 | 6.05 | 0.76 | 1.08 | 4.53 | 5.31 | OAK | 93 | 96 | 122 | 17.3% | 7.4% | 23.2% | 10.6% | 8.2% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -0.3 | 2.93 | 6.98 | 3.38 | 0.91 | 3.21 | 2.23 | ANA | 101 | 85 | 97 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 17.2% | 14.7% | 10.1% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 8.9 | 4.58 | 5.57 | 0.88 | 1.04 | 4.36 | 3.6 | BAL | 106 | 85 | 112 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 20.5% | 13.7% | 10.8% |
| David Price | TOR | -2 | 3 | 7.16 | 1.11 | 1.02 | 3.14 | 2.96 | NYY | 106 | 112 | 77 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 19.7% | 10.2% | 10.0% |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | -6.3 | 4.66 | 5.11 | 1.15 | 1.08 | 4.08 | 4.72 | MIN | 78 | 87 | 74 | 20.6% | 7.9% | 19.0% | 14.0% | 8.2% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 2.3 | 3.87 | 6.3 | 1.22 | 1.08 | 3.76 | 1.98 | CHW | 85 | 93 | 130 | 23.3% | 6.6% | 19.9% | 10.1% | 12.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -4.4 | 3.66 | 5.86 | 1.53 | 1.01 | 3.68 | 3.72 | FLA | 83 | 101 | 96 | 21.8% | 8.4% | 18.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -3.5 | 3.17 | 6.48 | 1.76 | 0.85 | 3.06 | 4.72 | COL | 79 | 94 | 58 | 20.9% | 5.6% | 19.6% | 13.2% | 10.1% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 3.5 | 4.21 | 6.14 | 0.9 | 0.87 | 4.47 | 4.26 | SDG | 84 | 91 | 104 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 19.3% | 10.9% | 11.2% |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 2.3 | 4.46 | 5.78 | 2.09 | 1.01 | 4.16 | 3.14 | WAS | 94 | 97 | 126 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 18.0% | 15.5% | 6.3% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 2.1 | 4.47 | 6.28 | 0.71 | 0.91 | 3.92 | 6.79 | HOU | 93 | 100 | 137 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 20.1% | 10.3% | 10.7% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | -6.7 | 3.77 | 5.87 | 1.21 | 1.08 | 3.68 | 4.71 | TEX | 100 | 96 | 55 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 21.2% | 17.2% | 13.7% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -4.9 | 3.97 | 5.93 | 1.59 | 0.91 | 4.47 | 3.7 | PIT | 105 | 99 | 114 | 19.5% | 7.6% | 20.6% | 12.0% | 8.7% |
| John Lackey | STL | 0.8 | 3.85 | 6.53 | 1.28 | 1.02 | 4.09 | 4.07 | CIN | 98 | 91 | 97 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 23.5% | 11.9% | 7.8% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 2.8 | 4.02 | 6.49 | 0.85 | 0.94 | 3.84 | 4.99 | CLE | 110 | 100 | 116 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 19.2% | 8.5% | 11.3% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.6 | 3.74 | 5.81 | 1.72 | 1.01 | 3.89 | 4.36 | PHI | 88 | 85 | 70 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 21.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | -0.8 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 0.83 | 0.98 | 5.45 | 6.43 | NYM | 95 | 97 | 139 | 17.2% | 10.2% | 22.7% | 9.6% | 9.1% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 1.8 | 5.19 | 5.12 | 1.23 | 1.02 | 4.84 | 4.15 | STL | 91 | 100 | 63 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 23.3% | 10.6% | 10.1% |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 5.5 | 4.81 | 4.74 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 4.29 | 4.35 | KAN | 91 | 102 | 64 | 15.9% | 5.2% | 22.3% | 10.1% | 8.1% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 2.4 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 1.04 | 1.09 | 4.4 | 3.23 | LOS | 101 | 113 | 122 | 23.2% | 10.5% | 22.7% | 12.0% | 6.8% |
| Luis Severino | NYY | -5.5 | 3.9 | 5.85 | 1.42 | 1.02 | 3.97 | 4.37 | TOR | 103 | 111 | 121 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 18.9% | 13.6% | 14.2% |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 1.1 | 3.57 | 6.33 | 0.85 | 0.98 | 3.29 | 3.33 | ATL | 89 | 76 | 95 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 20.1% | 12.0% | 5.8% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | -1.6 | 3.9 | 6.06 | 1.72 | 0.94 | 4.02 | 3.13 | TAM | 100 | 116 | 125 | 20.8% | 7.3% | 23.1% | 9.5% | 7.1% |
Alex Wood has had some better results recently, but the underlying numbers (4.0 K-BB% over the last month) show no improvement at all. He has been generating a few more ground balls though (52.8 GB% over the last month). Overall, he’s just a pretty average pitcher at best. Arizona is a below average offense at home and vs LHP, but is enhanced by their home park. They’ve been cold over the last week with a 2.1 Hard-Soft%, but 20.0 HR/FB and are an overall neutral matchup after park adjusting up tonight.
Charlie Morton is still generating more than 55% ground balls, but is not striking out batters at a higher rate and even has a double digit SwStr% over the last month (16.5 K-BB%). In fact, since the start of August (seven starts), over 75% of the batters he’s faced have either struck out or pounded the ball into the ground. He pitches in a great park and does not often let the ball leave it at home. Milwaukee is a poor road team (14.9 K-BB%), below average vs RHP, and has not been hitting the ball well (-1.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week). They are a very favorable park adjusted matchup.
Chris Archer still owns the highest K% (30.3) of any RHP in baseball, but has struck out a total of just 11 over his last two starts, while allowing four runs or more in three of his last five. He threw nearly 200 innings last year and isn’t looking at a big dip in velocity, so I’m not worried about fatigue. In fact, his SwStr% hasn’t fallen off at all in either of his last two starts (above 13% in each), but he did allow a lot of hard contact (40.6 Hard-Soft%). He has a 19.6 K-BB% at home since last season. Boston has the hottest offense in the majors (14.8 K%, 15.4 HR/FB, 17.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week). They have just a 17.2 K% vs RHP, but are a poor road offense and really neutral in this spot after park adjustment.
Dallas Keuchel has career-best 18.0 K-BB% and is striking out 30.4% of batters over the last month. He also has a 62.2 GB% with a -3.0 Hard-Soft%. That means that 85% of the batters he faces are either hitting (usually weak) ground balls or striking out. He’s gone at least seven innings in each of his last six starts and faces a below average offense in a good park, giving him a great park adjusted matchup here.
David Price had his start against the Yankees rained out last night. Many people remember his not making it out of the first inning against them late last year and then another similar start early this year where he didn’t make it out of the third. Since then, he’s throw 14.1 innings with three runs and 13 Ks in back to back starts last month and has struck out at least eight in each of his last four starts. He has a 20.7 K-BB% on the road since last season and 0.0 Hard-Soft% over his last two starts. The Yankees are actually tougher on LHP (9.4 BB%, but just a 6.3 Hard-Soft%) and have a 14.2 HR/FB at home, but haven’t been hitting the ball well. They are still an unfavorable matchup after a small adjustment for run environment.
Ervin Santana has allowed only a single ER in 15 innings, striking out 21 of 57 Astros in back to back starts. He’s been a very average pitcher on the road since last season but now travels to a tough park to face a rather hot offense (17.7 HR/FB over the last week). They are, however, one of the worst home offenses this season and are close to neutral opposition here.
Gio Gonzalez struck out a season-high 10 of 24 Braves in his last start (but still walked four) and allowed fewer than three runs for the first time in almost a month. His overall strikeout rate is up over the last month, while his GB% is way down (1.11 GB/FB), but that may not be a bad thing, considering how poor his team is at fielding them. He has a -3.5 Hard-Soft% over his last two starts and travels to Miami to face the worst home offense in baseball. They’re average vs LHP, but with a lot of weak contact (6.4 Hard-Soft%) and a favorable matchup here in a near neutral run environment.
Hisashi Iwakuma is a 15.0 K-BB% this season with a slightly elevated (for him) 5.0 BB% (season-high four walks two starts back) and a bit of a HR problem in a great park. After several seasons of this, we have to believe his FIP (which uses actual HR rate rather than expected) and call him a slightly below average pitcher at this point. He’s followed up four straights starts of at least seven innings by not making it that far in any of his last three, but does have a 0.0 Hard-Soft% over his last two. He faces a terrible road offense (23.9 K%) and a pretty cold one overall (1.8 Hard-Soft% over the last week) tonight in what should be easily the top park adjusted matchup.
Jarred Cosart wasn’t bad in his first start in two months, at home against the Mets, allowing just a single run in 4.2 innings with three strikeouts. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats and combines that with below average control, which is a pretty terrible combination, but occasionally finds success due to a 2.1 GB/FB. He’s not someone who we’d often considered but is in a unique situation here. He faces an average Washington offense that has actually been hitting the ball well lately. They strike out a bit more than the average team (21.7% vs RHP), but hit for a lot of power (13.3 HR/FB on the road, 13.2 HR/FB vs RHP). While the park is a neutral run environment, it is tough of power, potentially giving Cosart a small edge tonight in an otherwise near neutral matchup against a team that just had their post-season aspirations crushed.
Jesse Chavez has been about a league average pitcher (12.8 K-BB%), who is generally treated well by his home park, but has struggled greatly recently (14 runs over his last 11.2 innings in three starts). He actually has a 15.1 K-BB% on the road since last season, though with an increased 13.4 HR/FB. He has allowed a HR in each of his last eight starts (10 total) and travels to face a very average offense in a tough park (though it’s played somewhat more neutral recently), but also the coldest offense in baseball (5.9 HR/FB, -4.3 Hard-Soft% over the last week).
Kyle Hendricks has been fairly mediocre and rare makes it to even six innings these days. He does have a 14.6 K-BB% and a solid 5.4 Hard-Soft% and perhaps most importantly, he faces the Phillies, who have a 6.0 HR/FB and 17.8 K-BB% over the last week. They will have also already played a full game by the time he gets to them, have a 6.5 Hard-Soft%, and are a great matchup tonight in a near neutral run environment.
Steven Matz was a little shaky with his command in his first major league start in over a month and just his third overall, but has a 17.8 K-BB% with at least six strikeouts in all three. It’s too early to tell you how unsustainable a .190 BABIP and 100% strand rate are, but he had a 17.5 K-BB% at AAA in a terrible park in Vegas too. He faces an Atlanta team that is terrible vs LHP, with a league average strikeout rate, little power, and a 5.6 Hard-Soft%. It’s a great overall matchup with little park adjustment necessary.
Wade Miley hasn’t had a good season, but has been better over the last month and really since the break. He’s struck out at least six in five of his last six with no fewer than six innings. He gets an upgrade in park tonight, but faces a tough offense. The Rays are 3rd best against LHP (12.8 HR/FB) and have an 18.8 Hard-Soft% overall this past week. Even in a favorable environment, it’s not a tough matchup.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
John Lackey (.292 BABIP – 80.6 LOB% – 8.7 HR/FB) – He’s allowed eight of his 17 HRs in just 10 post AS break starts and has the highest strand rate of his career. He poses a risk in a small park.
Luis Severino (.261 BABIP – 90.9 LOB% – 12.9 HR/FB) – The 13.8 K-BB% is near average, but a -9.4 Hard-Soft% through his first nine starts is interesting. His LD% and HR/FB are actually higher than you’d expect with that kind of contact management, but he has induced six pop ups. He also faces Toronto tonight.
Justin Verlander (.263 BABIP – 70.1 HR/FB – 8.0 HR/FB) – He’s baaaaaack, back to his mediocre self from the past couple of seasons, striking out a total of eight over his last two starts and gets a 2nd straight meeting with a tough Cleveland offense at home.
Cody Anderson (.224 BABIP – 68.7 LOB% – 10.9 HR/FB) – How could he have a strand rate so low with a BABIP so low? How about a 5.9 K-BB%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jake Peavy just misses out on the full write up today because he has a great matchup, but has been bad this year and rarely pitches into the 7th inning anymore.
Danny Duffy travels to Baltimore with a 1.04 GB/FB and just a 6.3 K-BB%. The O’s do struggle against LHP though.
Robbie Ray – His last two starts haven’t been bad (16 Ks in 48 batters), but regression has found him, knocked on his door, and punched him in the face when he answered (though he still retains an unsustainable 6.6 HR/FB with a 22.5 Hard-Soft% in a terrible park).
Jimmy Nelson is incredibly inconsistent. Sometimes he allows walks and HRs, sometimes he’ll generate strikeouts and groundballs. Good luck projected when he’ll do any of those things.
Andrew Cashner hasn’t had a double-digit SwStr% in a game since June. The Giants are a good enough offense that the matchup isn’t necessarily always that favorable just because of the park.
Erik Johnson started his first game in the majors over the weekend and it was very mediocre. He had just a 2.7 K-BB% in 23 innings last year with an even lower 1.8 K-BB% at AAA in 2014. He’s somehow managed to double his K% at AAA this year, though but struck out just three of 23 Royals in his return to the majors with a 25.0 Hard-Soft%. That doesn’t really give me confidence tonight, even against a terrible road team tonight, but stay tuned.
Chad Bettis hasn’t been good outside of Colorado either, aside from nearly no-hitting the Phillies.
Mike Wright takes a 14.8 K% against Kansas City.
Jered Weaver has a 0.78 GB/FB with the highest HR rate of his career (9.5 HR/FB). That’s still lower than average, but that’s a lot of fly balls and a miserable, by far career low 12.5 K% and faces a team with quite a bit of power tonight. A potential boost to his K% tonight is not nearly enough to compensate for the risk he now poses.
Matthew Wisler takes a 5.0 K-BB% and 26.2 LD% up against the fighting Cespedes’s. Cespedesi? What the plural of Cespedes and can the world even survive multiple versions? Wisler is an underdog to survive even one.
Alec Asher was part of the Hamels trade and had league average-ish K and BB numbers in the minors, but allowed a ton of HRs (19 in 90.2 IP this year and then two more in two major league starts so far).
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | Phillies | 10.6% | 6.4% | Home | 11.5% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 10.6% | 6.4% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 21.1% | 7.2% | Road | 18.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 9.1% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 19.7% | 6.4% | Road | 15.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 9.0% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 16.8% | 8.0% | Road | 17.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 2.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 18.5% | 8.3% | Home | 18.1% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 9.4% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 25.7% | 7.6% | Home | 27.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 11.1% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 11.3% | 5.5% | Home | 11.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 8.7% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 17.1% | 5.8% | Home | 16.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 9.4% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 21.0% | 5.9% | Road | 18.3% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 5.2% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 17.0% | 8.8% | Road | 17.6% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 7.8% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 25.7% | 4.3% | Road | 25.7% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 31.5% | 9.3% |
| Erik Johnson | White Sox | 16.4% | 9.9% | Home | 27.0% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 20.4% | 7.5% | Road | 19.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 3.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 22.9% | 8.5% | Road | 22.4% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 12.5% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 21.0% | 3.8% | Home | 20.4% | 2.5% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 9.6% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 18.4% | 7.4% | Home | 16.6% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 2.2% |
| Jarred Cosart | Marlins | 15.0% | 10.0% | Home | 13.6% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 5.6% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 16.4% | 6.2% | Home | 21.0% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 8.6% | 12.1% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 21.4% | 7.5% | Road | 22.0% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 15.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.8% | 8.1% | Road | 17.4% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 4.0% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 18.9% | 5.7% | Road | 16.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 10.5% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 19.6% | 6.8% | Road | 20.0% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 5.3% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 18.7% | 5.6% | Road | 17.8% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 11.9% |
| Matthew Wisler | Braves | 14.2% | 9.1% | Home | 13.2% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 16.7% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 15.8% | 12.0% | Home | 17.0% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 4.4% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | 14.8% | 7.7% | Home | 14.1% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 4.8% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 20.0% | 8.6% | Home | 19.0% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 23.5% | 9.7% | Home | 25.4% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 11.5% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 27.4% | 9.6% | Road | 31.8% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 9.5% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 19.5% | 8.1% | Road | 18.5% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 1.7% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Road | 24.8% | 8.5% | RH | 24.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 25.1% | 10.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.2% | 8.0% | LH | 21.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.4% | 7.1% |
| Giants | Home | 18.2% | 7.4% | RH | 18.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 14.7% | 6.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.8% | 7.9% | RH | 21.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.9% | 6.0% | RH | 20.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 21.1% | 8.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.8% | 7.6% | RH | 17.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 14.8% | 7.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.0% | 7.0% | RH | 20.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.9% | 5.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.2% | 7.6% | RH | 18.2% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.5% | 8.4% |
| Angels | Home | 19.9% | 7.5% | LH | 18.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 8.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.9% | 6.8% | LH | 22.7% | 5.7% | L7Days | 21.1% | 9.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.2% | 8.7% | LH | 19.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.6% |
| Twins | Road | 23.1% | 6.8% | RH | 21.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.1% | 7.0% | RH | 20.2% | 6.5% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.0% | 6.8% | LH | 20.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 16.1% | 6.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.9% | 6.0% | RH | 20.2% | 6.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 5.8% |
| Padres | Road | 21.7% | 7.1% | RH | 21.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 24.4% | 8.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.3% | 8.3% | RH | 21.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 24.4% | 9.0% |
| Astros | Road | 22.4% | 7.5% | RH | 23.9% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.5% | 8.2% | RH | 19.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.3% | 12.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.6% | 7.3% | RH | 20.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.8% | 8.3% |
| Reds | Home | 19.2% | 8.9% | RH | 19.2% | 7.9% | L7Days | 20.7% | 8.5% |
| Indians | Home | 18.7% | 9.4% | RH | 18.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 17.8% | 7.2% |
| Phillies | Home | 19.7% | 6.6% | RH | 20.2% | 5.9% | L7Days | 22.1% | 4.3% |
| Mets | Road | 21.4% | 7.3% | RH | 20.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 11.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.7% | 7.8% | RH | 19.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.8% | 10.5% |
| Royals | Road | 16.5% | 5.4% | RH | 15.4% | 6.3% | L7Days | 15.3% | 2.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.2% | 10.0% | LH | 21.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.6% | 13.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.9% | 8.4% | RH | 18.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.3% | 9.0% |
| Braves | Home | 18.2% | 8.9% | LH | 20.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 16.8% | 9.3% |
| Rays | Home | 22.5% | 7.3% | LH | 21.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.0% | 8.7% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | Phillies | 18.4% | 11.1% | 0.0% | Home | 14.3% | 15.4% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 21.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | Road | 21.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 20.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% | Road | 20.2% | 11.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 23.5% | 13.7% | 3.4% | Road | 17.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 21.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | Home | 21.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 21.7% | 9.0% | 10.4% | Home | 21.7% | 9.3% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 21.6% | 10.9% | 14.1% | Home | 18.2% | 12.9% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 21.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | Home | 21.0% | 10.3% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 18.8% | 11.8% | 12.2% | Road | 19.1% | 12.7% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 8.8% | 33.3% | 8.3% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 21.9% | 7.4% | 15.2% | Road | 20.4% | 9.2% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 21.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | Road | 21.2% | 9.5% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Johnson | White Sox | 20.4% | 12.9% | 6.5% | Home | 28.6% | 12.5% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 23.6% | 10.4% | 10.7% | Road | 24.9% | 9.6% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 19.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | Road | 18.0% | 8.1% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 20.0% | 13.8% | 7.9% | Home | 18.9% | 16.7% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 19.5% | 9.1% | 10.2% | Home | 21.1% | 6.6% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 14.3% | 19.0% |
| Jarred Cosart | Marlins | 18.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | Home | 20.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 18.8% | 8.7% | 11.9% | Home | 19.0% | 5.6% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 4.5% | 9.1% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 22.7% | 11.1% | 12.0% | Road | 21.8% | 13.4% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | Road | 19.9% | 8.1% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 20.7% | 10.7% | 11.7% | Road | 19.3% | 14.7% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 20.1% | 6.9% | 11.8% | Road | 22.9% | 7.6% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 4.0% | 12.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 20.8% | 8.9% | 11.4% | Road | 20.9% | 6.9% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wisler | Braves | 26.2% | 12.0% | 12.0% | Home | 19.8% | 4.4% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 26.9% | 15.2% | 6.7% | Home | 25.3% | 14.3% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Mike Wright | Orioles | 20.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | Home | 19.6% | 10.5% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 21.4% | 8.1% | 5.4% | Home | 22.0% | 8.5% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 21.9% | 12.9% | 19.4% | Home | 8.7% | 15.0% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 14.0% | 15.0% | 5.0% | Road | 16.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 20.9% | 11.0% | 6.1% | Road | 21.7% | 8.5% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 34.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Road | 20.7% | 11.3% | 7.3% | RH | 20.1% | 13.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 19.7% | 3.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.8% | 10.3% | 7.7% | LH | 19.3% | 11.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.4% | 20.0% | 5.7% |
| Giants | Home | 20.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | RH | 21.3% | 10.3% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.5% | 12.4% | 9.0% | RH | 20.2% | 12.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 11.1% | 12.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | RH | 21.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.1% | 9.3% | 20.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.4% | 9.5% | 11.5% | RH | 20.4% | 10.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 19.4% | 15.4% | 5.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.7% | 11.8% | 7.6% | RH | 21.6% | 10.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.1% | 9.5% | 10.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.6% | 10.6% | 8.6% | RH | 20.3% | 9.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 17.2% | 15.5% | 6.9% |
| Angels | Home | 20.6% | 11.8% | 10.2% | LH | 18.0% | 9.7% | 10.2% | L7Days | 17.7% | 9.1% | 6.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.4% | 15.8% | 7.7% | LH | 21.0% | 11.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 18.4% | 18.3% | 11.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.3% | 14.2% | 11.8% | LH | 18.6% | 12.3% | 12.5% | L7Days | 18.5% | 16.4% | 16.4% |
| Twins | Road | 19.2% | 9.1% | 10.6% | RH | 20.6% | 10.0% | 11.6% | L7Days | 15.0% | 12.2% | 8.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.2% | 11.4% | 9.7% | RH | 21.1% | 11.3% | 9.8% | L7Days | 16.0% | 17.7% | 11.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | LH | 21.1% | 12.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.1% | 11.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.1% | 12.8% | 10.6% | RH | 21.2% | 14.4% | 9.9% | L7Days | 18.8% | 14.7% | 19.1% |
| Padres | Road | 19.6% | 9.1% | 9.7% | RH | 19.8% | 10.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.5% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.0% | 13.3% | 9.0% | RH | 20.8% | 13.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.3% | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Astros | Road | 21.6% | 11.4% | 10.9% | RH | 19.8% | 14.4% | 11.3% | L7Days | 18.8% | 17.4% | 10.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.9% | 11.9% | 8.6% | RH | 19.0% | 10.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 13.2% | 5.9% | 13.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.7% | 11.6% | 5.8% | RH | 21.3% | 10.3% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.1% | 14.8% | 9.3% |
| Reds | Home | 23.1% | 11.8% | 8.9% | RH | 21.0% | 10.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.8% | 9.4% | 6.3% |
| Indians | Home | 23.8% | 8.9% | 10.4% | RH | 21.3% | 10.1% | 12.2% | L7Days | 18.0% | 13.3% | 8.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.9% | 10.4% | 8.7% | RH | 22.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 6.0% | 10.0% |
| Mets | Road | 22.7% | 11.0% | 9.8% | RH | 22.3% | 11.0% | 11.4% | L7Days | 18.4% | 18.9% | 4.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.4% | 11.2% | 10.6% | RH | 22.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.5% | 3.6% | 9.1% |
| Royals | Road | 22.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | RH | 20.9% | 9.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 17.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.5% | 12.9% | 10.4% | LH | 22.5% | 11.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.6% | 13.7% | 11.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.4% | 13.3% | 14.1% | RH | 19.5% | 14.6% | 12.9% | L7Days | 24.2% | 14.6% | 12.5% |
| Braves | Home | 21.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | LH | 20.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 25.4% | 4.7% | 14.1% |
| Rays | Home | 21.5% | 10.7% | 9.0% | LH | 20.8% | 12.8% | 11.2% | L7Days | 18.9% | 14.1% | 10.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | PHI | 10.6% | 8.0% | 1.33 | 10.6% | 8.0% | 1.33 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 17.8% | 8.2% | 2.17 | 15.3% | 8.7% | 1.76 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 19.8% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 3.16 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 18.5% | 9.1% | 2.03 | 12.7% | 5.3% | 2.40 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 17.2% | 7.8% | 2.21 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 2.24 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 30.3% | 13.6% | 2.23 | 27.1% | 14.2% | 1.91 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 11.3% | 7.8% | 1.45 | 14.3% | 7.2% | 1.99 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.05 | 10.9% | 7.1% | 1.54 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 23.7% | 10.2% | 2.32 | 30.4% | 13.5% | 2.25 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 15.2% | 7.3% | 2.08 | 18.4% | 9.3% | 1.98 |
| David Price | TOR | 24.8% | 11.7% | 2.12 | 28.2% | 12.9% | 2.19 |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 13.0% | 8.1% | 1.60 | 13.0% | 8.1% | 1.60 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 17.5% | 9.3% | 1.88 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 2.42 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 21.4% | 9.6% | 2.23 | 23.4% | 11.1% | 2.11 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 20.1% | 10.0% | 2.01 | 20.2% | 10.9% | 1.85 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 17.5% | 7.5% | 2.33 | 15.1% | 6.7% | 2.25 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 15.0% | 7.4% | 2.03 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.46 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 12.5% | 8.3% | 1.51 | 10.3% | 7.5% | 1.37 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 20.1% | 8.6% | 2.34 | 22.6% | 8.5% | 2.66 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 20.2% | 10.1% | 2.00 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 2.08 |
| John Lackey | STL | 18.1% | 9.3% | 1.95 | 20.0% | 11.7% | 1.71 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 19.8% | 9.8% | 2.02 | 23.7% | 9.9% | 2.39 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 20.8% | 7.6% | 2.74 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.44 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 14.2% | 7.7% | 1.84 | 14.4% | 8.5% | 1.69 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 15.8% | 8.4% | 1.88 | 13.6% | 7.7% | 1.77 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 14.8% | 7.7% | 1.92 | 19.1% | 15.0% | 1.27 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 21.9% | 8.9% | 2.46 | 21.2% | 10.4% | 2.04 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 23.5% | 9.3% | 2.53 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 2.37 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 27.4% | 10.6% | 2.58 | 28.6% | 8.6% | 3.33 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 17.9% | 8.3% | 2.16 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 2.32 |
Alex Wood does have a SwStr above 12% in four of his seven starts as a Dodger, but has been below 7.5% in the other three.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | PHI | 10.61 | 5.44 | -5.17 | 5.86 | -4.75 | 5.82 | -4.79 | 10.61 | 5.45 | -5.16 | 5.86 | -4.75 | 5.82 | -4.79 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 3.51 | 4.26 | 0.75 | 4.02 | 0.51 | 3.61 | 0.1 | 2.64 | 4.82 | 2.18 | 4.42 | 1.78 | 4.22 | 1.58 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 4.11 | 3.99 | -0.12 | 3.87 | -0.24 | 3.95 | -0.16 | 4.23 | 4.01 | -0.22 | 3.75 | -0.48 | 3.69 | -0.54 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 4.95 | 4.16 | -0.79 | 3.96 | -0.99 | 4.24 | -0.71 | 5.28 | 4.04 | -1.24 | 3.7 | -1.58 | 4.25 | -1.03 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 4.07 | 3.83 | -0.24 | 3.8 | -0.27 | 3.91 | -0.16 | 2.97 | 3.34 | 0.37 | 3.38 | 0.41 | 3.28 | 0.31 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 2.88 | 2.82 | -0.06 | 2.78 | -0.1 | 2.72 | -0.16 | 4.13 | 3.33 | -0.8 | 3.39 | -0.74 | 3.42 | -0.71 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 3.72 | 4.74 | 1.02 | 4.38 | 0.66 | 4.34 | 0.62 | 2.08 | 4.78 | 2.7 | 4.24 | 2.16 | 3.89 | 1.81 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 4.68 | 4.42 | -0.26 | 4.64 | -0.04 | 4.33 | -0.35 | 5.02 | 5.56 | 0.54 | 5.37 | 0.35 | 4.99 | -0.03 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.29 | 2.78 | 0.49 | 2.69 | 0.4 | 2.81 | 0.52 | 1.75 | 2.33 | 0.58 | 2.24 | 0.49 | 2.67 | 0.92 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 4.17 | 4.91 | 0.74 | 4.87 | 0.7 | 4.6 | 0.43 | 4.08 | 4.18 | 0.1 | 4.43 | 0.35 | 4.16 | 0.08 |
| David Price | TOR | 2.43 | 3.31 | 0.88 | 3.32 | 0.89 | 2.88 | 0.45 | 2.8 | 2.92 | 0.12 | 3.01 | 0.21 | 2.21 | -0.59 |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 4.5 | 4.72 | 0.22 | 4.82 | 0.32 | 8.64 | 4.14 | 4.5 | 4.72 | 0.22 | 4.82 | 0.32 | 8.64 | 4.14 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 4.93 | 4.45 | -0.48 | 4.54 | -0.39 | 4.68 | -0.25 | 4.31 | 3.71 | -0.6 | 3.84 | -0.47 | 3.49 | -0.82 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.96 | 3.83 | -0.13 | 3.65 | -0.31 | 3.14 | -0.82 | 6.29 | 4.13 | -2.16 | 3.99 | -2.3 | 3.55 | -2.74 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 4.03 | 3.6 | -0.43 | 3.52 | -0.51 | 4.2 | 0.17 | 3.31 | 4.05 | 0.74 | 3.9 | 0.59 | 3.66 | 0.35 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 4.41 | 4.38 | -0.03 | 4.5 | 0.09 | 4.19 | -0.22 | 5.52 | 4.72 | -0.8 | 4.81 | -0.71 | 4.98 | -0.54 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 5.04 | 4.56 | -0.48 | 4.38 | -0.66 | 5.26 | 0.22 | 1.93 | 3.14 | 1.21 | 3.44 | 1.51 | 5.29 | 3.36 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 4.78 | 4.91 | 0.13 | 5.1 | 0.32 | 4.75 | -0.03 | 5.1 | 5.68 | 0.58 | 6.35 | 1.25 | 5.11 | 0.01 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 4.17 | 4.02 | -0.15 | 3.93 | -0.24 | 3.94 | -0.23 | 6.31 | 3.7 | -2.61 | 3.48 | -2.83 | 5.33 | -0.98 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.86 | 4.05 | 0.19 | 4.01 | 0.15 | 4.1 | 0.24 | 4.94 | 4.64 | -0.3 | 4.61 | -0.33 | 5.12 | 0.18 |
| John Lackey | STL | 2.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 3.99 | 1.09 | 3.64 | 0.74 | 2.86 | 3.83 | 0.97 | 3.56 | 0.7 | 3.75 | 0.89 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.43 | 4.14 | 0.71 | 4.34 | 0.91 | 3.75 | 0.32 | 1.47 | 3.67 | 2.2 | 3.93 | 2.46 | 2.41 | 0.94 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.08 | 3.6 | -0.48 | 3.48 | -0.6 | 3.51 | -0.57 | 5.92 | 3.79 | -2.13 | 3.5 | -2.42 | 3.84 | -2.08 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 5.81 | 5.15 | -0.66 | 5.23 | -0.58 | 5.36 | -0.45 | 8.06 | 5.69 | -2.37 | 6.03 | -2.03 | 7.04 | -1.02 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 5.54 | 5.19 | -0.35 | 5.06 | -0.48 | 5.6 | 0.06 | 11.12 | 4.7 | -6.42 | 4.47 | -6.65 | 4.2 | -6.92 |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 5.19 | 4.81 | -0.38 | 5.19 | 0 | 5.16 | -0.03 | 6.75 | 4.35 | -2.4 | 5.2 | -1.55 | 5.89 | -0.86 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.72 | 4.04 | 0.32 | 4.1 | 0.38 | 3.47 | -0.25 | 5.63 | 4.75 | -0.88 | 4.68 | -0.95 | 4.31 | -1.32 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 2.04 | 3.9 | 1.86 | 3.78 | 1.74 | 3.96 | 1.92 | 2.08 | 4.31 | 2.23 | 4.1 | 2.02 | 4.13 | 2.05 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 1.89 | 3.57 | 1.68 | 3.84 | 1.95 | 4.35 | 2.46 | 3.38 | 3.33 | -0.05 | 3.12 | -0.26 | 4.46 | 1.08 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 4.43 | 4.18 | -0.25 | 4.01 | -0.42 | 3.71 | -0.72 | 3.5 | 3.22 | -0.28 | 2.85 | -0.65 | 2.2 | -1.3 |
Alex Wood – The BABIP went from a little too high to a little too low (.261) over the last month with an 83.3 LOB%. He’s walked 14 of the 124 batters he’s faced and has been able to strand too many.
Chris Archer – In the two starts he didn’t allow at least four runs over the last month, he’s pitched 15 shutout innings, so there’s been some inconsistency every other start and a 68.7 LOB% overall in his last five.
Gio Gonzalez has seen a 2% rise in his K% with significant drop in GB% over the last month, but just a 5.7 HR/FB. It hasn’t helped his BABIP (.333) with pretty standard contact authority rates and a 22.1 LD%. He has stranded just 63.4% of his runners and would probably be close to average with a normalized strand rate.
Jesse Chavez has a 28.6 HR/FB and a lot of hard contact (34.2 Hard%) over the last month, but you wouldn’t think that’s sustainable along with a 63.3 LOB%. He also has an elevated BABIP despite generating an elite pop up rate (likely due to his home park) and normal line drive and zone contact rates. I mean, yeah, stop giving up HRs, but even the most HR prone pitchers see rates about half of what he’s done over the last month, so even dumb luck should see that number improve.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%) Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | PHI | 0.318 | 0.378 | 0.06 | 0.0% | 92.7% |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.297 | 0.322 | 0.025 | 9.2% | 89.1% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.297 | 0.319 | 0.022 | 8.6% | 89.8% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.317 | 0.317 | 0 | 5.0% | 93.2% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 0.301 | 0.296 | -0.005 | 9.7% | 91.5% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.283 | 0.288 | 0.005 | 7.6% | 83.5% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 0.290 | 0.224 | -0.066 | 14.1% | 90.3% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.295 | 0.290 | -0.005 | 8.8% | 90.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.281 | 0.263 | -0.018 | 14.3% | 89.9% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.284 | 0.297 | 0.013 | 16.7% | 87.1% |
| David Price | TOR | 0.281 | 0.288 | 0.007 | 10.9% | 81.7% |
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 0.313 | 0.118 | -0.195 | 0.0% | 81.8% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.300 | 0.301 | 0.001 | 15.4% | 88.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.306 | 0.344 | 0.038 | 2.7% | 87.0% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.295 | 0.257 | -0.038 | 6.7% | 91.6% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.287 | 0.286 | -0.001 | 9.4% | 91.4% |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 0.294 | 0.258 | -0.036 | 4.9% | 91.8% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.285 | 0.272 | -0.013 | 14.5% | 85.1% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 0.285 | 0.312 | 0.027 | 16.5% | 85.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.302 | 0.283 | -0.019 | 10.7% | 87.4% |
| John Lackey | STL | 0.298 | 0.292 | -0.006 | 11.3% | 88.9% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.303 | 0.263 | -0.04 | 12.3% | 85.3% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.293 | 0.304 | 0.011 | 9.1% | 90.2% |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 0.309 | 0.316 | 0.007 | 12.0% | 89.1% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 0.288 | 0.308 | 0.02 | 6.7% | 87.2% |
| Mike Wright | BAL | 0.295 | 0.300 | 0.005 | 11.1% | 88.6% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.295 | 0.314 | 0.019 | 4.7% | 86.8% |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.299 | 0.261 | -0.038 | 19.4% | 85.3% |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 0.286 | 0.190 | -0.096 | 5.0% | 84.0% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 0.307 | 0.308 | 0.001 | 7.5% | 89.6% |
Hisashi Iwakuma had generated a BABIP around .280 prior to this season with a good defense, but with better indicators (a higher IBB% and lower Z-Contact%). He’s generating fewer line drives (17.8%), but that’s a number with a lot of variance usually. This seems somewhat fluky and could be concerning if it normalizes.
Jarred Cosart has had his season interrupted a few times, with just 50 total innings, but aside from a 16.8 LD%, which is great, shows no indications in the BABIP chart that this is a sustainable effort.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Steven Matz (4) isn’t as cheap as you would expect a pitcher with just three career starts to be (though not that expensive), but he’s really good and the Braves are really bad (and even worst against LHP.
Ervin Santana – Sure, he struck out double-digit Astros in each of his last two starts and that’s not like striking out a bunch of Royals, but they are still a major league team and he dominated them. His season has not been good, but he faces a team that’s struggled to produce offense at home all season long at a lower than average price tag.
Value Tier Two
Hisashi Iwakuma (3) – There are some disturbing trends in his profile that suggest he may no longer be a league average pitcher and if you can’t keep the ball in the yard in Safeco, where can you? However, he has, by far, the top matchup tonight against the Rockies at home. They are awful on the road and should make him look as good as he’s been in past seasons tonight.
Dallas Keuchel (1) is the highest priced pitcher on the board for a reason and it’s because 85% of the batters he’s faced have either grounded out (weakly) or struck out. He’s in a good spot on the road against the Angels tonight.
Value Tier Two A
Charlie Morton gets a tier of his own today. He retains a below average price, even with a significant increase in strikeouts and a favorable matchup at home tonight. I’m not 100% bought in on the new Charlie Morton yet, but it’s cheap enough for speculation tonight.
Value Tier Three
Gio Gonzalez has gone back to fewer ground balls and more strikeouts over the last month, although we can’t really say the results have changed all that much. He faces an average team against LHP, but a very poor offense at home at a fairly average price tag.
Wade Miley has pitched better since the All-Star break, but any upgrade he gets for pitching in a favorable park is dismissed by facing a team that hits LHP really well.
Jesse Chavez has struggled, but is generally close to a league average pitcher and faces an ice cold team with a great price tag on DraftKings.
David Price (2) has a high price tag and a difficult matchup in Yankee Stadium.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Kyle Hendricks has the profile of about an average pitcher at an average cost in a good spot against the Phillies
Jarred Cosart is near the minimum price on DraftKings
Chris Archer (5) has one of the highest price tags, but has been a little less consistent lately and faces the hot Boston bats.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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