Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, August 31st
This is going to be one of the longer introductions, but I was asked on Twitter the other day whether I accounted for Vegas lines here and the answer was no. I wanted to expand on and clarify that answer here. The focus here is mostly on accounting for what a pitcher can control (Advanced Stats is right in the title) and then trying to factor in and figure out if the things that are outside of his control are likely or not to go in his favor (defense, park, matchup). While I’ve come to understand they mean more than I initially realized, chasing wins are less under a pitcher’s control than almost anything else, and doesn’t even have the same impact on every site. What other stat can be decided after the player in question is out of the game?
Also, we’ve already kind of taken a lot of what goes into the betting line when analyzing a pitcher’s own talent and current matchup. I think line changes, especially late ones, and especially run line movement can be really important, but like lineups, umpires, and weather, those can’t be accounted for at the time of this writing. Even then, I don’t think line movement should always push you off a pitcher you really like. In fact, the pitcher in question was Raisel Iglesias, who had a strong line movement against him. He did, in fact, lose, but struck out 10 and put up a hell of a score for his cost. Use betting lines as a tool, just like anything else, but realize that other things besides the projected performance of the starting pitcher go into line moves such as weather or lineup changes and don’t necessarily allow movement against your side sway you off a pitcher you really like.
With all that out of the way, let’s enjoy our last day of baseball before rosters expand and all hell breaks loose.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report (and I’ll now add lineup movement) as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
Editor’s Note: Mike Foltynewicz has been scratched from today’s start. Shelby Miller will start in his place for the Braves.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 2 | 3.75 | 6.29 | 1.01 | 0.88 | 3.62 | 3.97 | PHI | 86 | 86 | 101 | 21.0% | 5.7% | 20.7% | 12.3% | 8.1% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 1.8 | 3.37 | 5.76 | 3.33 | 0.89 | 3.88 | 2.68 | SFO | 104 | 105 | 112 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 18.6% | 13.7% | 4.1% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | -2.8 | 4.17 | 5.51 | 1.61 | 1.4 | 4.06 | 3.62 | ARI | 94 | 95 | 75 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 21.0% | 10.1% | 5.1% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 9.4 | 3.22 | 6.09 | 1.47 | 1.04 | 3 | 1.55 | BAL | 108 | 100 | 58 | 27.7% | 6.2% | 19.5% | 12.4% | 12.5% |
| Chris Narveson | FLA | 4.3 | 3.93 | 3.2 | 0.57 | 0.98 | 4.29 | 4.99 | ATL | 91 | 84 | 114 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 21.2% | 16.6% | 5.0% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 2.9 | 4.26 | 6.08 | 0.76 | 0.84 | 4.51 | 6.29 | SDG | 96 | 91 | 84 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 21.4% | 11.1% | 8.4% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -0.9 | 2.93 | 6.9 | 3.48 | 1.01 | 2.71 | 2.35 | SEA | 94 | 100 | 134 | 22.6% | 5.8% | 20.5% | 10.9% | 14.9% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -1.3 | 3.15 | 5.81 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 3.31 | 3.29 | TOR | 127 | 111 | 176 | 21.2% | 8.1% | 20.8% | 16.2% | 11.5% |
| David Price | TOR | -1.6 | 3 | 7.16 | 1.11 | 1.05 | 2.89 | 2.46 | CLE | 90 | 98 | 144 | 22.7% | 6.4% | 20.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | -3.8 | 4.16 | 5.76 | 1.43 | 1.07 | 3.86 | 3.43 | NYY | 105 | 113 | 125 | 17.2% | 7.3% | 21.0% | 13.8% | 11.3% |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | -8.4 | 4.73 | 4.92 | 1.16 | 0.93 | 4.9 | 3.93 | ANA | 89 | 87 | 74 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 20.0% | 8.8% | 12.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -5 | 3.63 | 5.88 | 1.55 | 0.98 | 3.36 | 3.87 | STL | 101 | 89 | 121 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 21.9% | 10.1% | 6.2% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.3 | 4.36 | 5.32 | 0.63 | 0.93 | 4.65 | 5.58 | OAK | 99 | 93 | 124 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 17.9% | 9.3% | 10.6% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | -5.2 | 4.5 | 5.77 | 1.55 | 1.07 | 5.09 | 6.33 | BOS | 112 | 97 | 82 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 21.5% | 10.8% | 8.8% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 2.2 | 4.23 | 6.18 | 0.9 | 0.89 | 4.46 | 4.57 | LOS | 115 | 106 | 85 | 18.6% | 8.0% | 21.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | -4.9 | 3.64 | 6. | 0.65 | 0.88 | 3.55 | 3.64 | NYM | 100 | 95 | 147 | 20.7% | 6.5% | 22.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% |
| John Lackey | STL | 1.7 | 3.83 | 6.53 | 1.26 | 0.98 | 3.4 | 3.47 | WAS | 94 | 98 | 142 | 20.7% | 6.8% | 20.8% | 13.5% | 11.2% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.1 | 3.69 | 5.85 | 1.69 | 1.05 | 3.26 | 2.96 | CIN | 84 | 89 | 97 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 21.1% | 12.1% | 8.3% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 3 | 5.28 | 5.13 | 1.19 | 1.05 | 4.82 | CHC | 94 | 95 | 68 | ||||||
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -2.3 | 4.26 | 5.6 | 0.72 | 0.98 | 5.14 | 3.94 | FLA | 87 | 81 | 72 | 18.2% | 6.0% | 20.9% | 12.4% | 9.9% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.2 | 4.28 | 5.32 | 1 | 1.4 | 4.38 | 5.15 | COL | 94 | 64 | 51 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 21.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | -8.2 | 3.22 | 6.05 | 2.93 | 0.84 | 2.81 | 3.13 | TEX | 90 | 99 | 129 | 22.5% | 8.3% | 20.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | -2.9 | 3.81 | 5.53 | 0.9 | 1.01 | 4.17 | 4.56 | HOU | 108 | 99 | 114 | 20.0% | 7.7% | 17.8% | 14.3% | 10.5% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 7.7 | 3.84 | 6.02 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 3.66 | 3.96 | TAM | 94 | 114 | 117 | 19.4% | 6.1% | 21.4% | 10.4% | 12.6% |
Bartolo Colon had some injury concerns before his last start against these same Phillies after being hit on the hand in Colorado, but he quelled those quite nicely and even pitched a scoreless inning of relief this weekend, giving him eight innings of scoreless ball with 10 strikeouts since the beaning. He’s been frequently hit hard since the first month of the season, but at least fantasy competent in three starts against the Phillies with at least six strikeouts in each. He has a 14.7 K-BB% this season and 16.9 K-BB% at home as a Met, getting hurt the most by teams with some power, of which the Phillies have little. The Phillies are a poor road team (14.9 K-BB%, 7.9 HR/FB) and second worst offense vs RHP (14.2 K-BB%) with a 26.5 K% and 5.8 Hard-Soft% over the last week. They are one of tonight’s top park adjusted matchup.
Brett Anderson has a 66.7 GB%, which is a four point lead over second and third place, who have a seven point lead over the next qualified pitcher. On top of that, his 1.3 Hard-Soft% is near the lead league, but regular readers are probably sick of hearing about weak ground balls every time I mention his name, but a ground ball rate so high generally gives him a floor that other below average strikeout rate pitchers normally don’t have. That doesn’t always happen, but everyone has off games. By the way, his GB rate over his last three starts: 72.1%. The Giants are one of the top road offenses and above average vs LHP, but have a -4.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week and park adjust down to a slightly favorable matchup here.
Chris Archer is the only RHP with a strikeout rate above 30% (31.1) and has struck out at least 10 in four of his last six starts. His 24.9 K-BB% just about doubles his career rate coming into this season. He’s also allowed at least three runs in six innings or fewer in three of his last four starts, which, basically, who cares when he’s struck out 23 of his last 57 batters, but he does face a powerful Baltimore lineup in their unwelcoming home hitter’s haven. The Orioles are a good home offense with off the charts power (16.0 HR/FB at home, 15.0 HR/FB vs RHP), but strike out lot (22.4 K% vs RHP, 29.4 K% over the last week). They are one of the coldest offenses in baseball this week.
Chris Narveson got bombed, as expected, in his first major league start since 2012 and would generally be someone to pick on except he’s facing the Braves tonight, so let’s see if we can find a reason, any reason, to back him tonight. A 0.57 GB/FB, 21.7 HR/FB, and 21.8 Hard-Soft% in 15.1 major league innings this year, mostly out of the bullpen? No, that’s not it. How about an 8.9 SwStr%, which he matched in his start, and above average K% so far? Ok, that works. Oh, and a 3.92 SIERA. That’s what we’re going with…..along with the fact that not only are the Braves bad (8.5 HR/FB at home, 5.4 Hard-Soft% overall), but worse vs LHP (20.5 K%). They are a favorable park adjusted matchup.
Dallas Keuchel is one of those ground ball rates just behind Anderson at 62.6%, but with an even more impressive -3.9 Hard-Soft%. He also has an above average K%, making him even tougher to hit and has a 16.2 K-BB% with a 6.1 HR/FB at home since last year. Seattle also has a 16.2 K-BB% vs LHP, but with a 14.8 HR/FB and 20.3 HR/FB over the last week. They have been hitting the ball well and are a slightly unfavorable matchup here after a park adjustment.
Danny Salazar got hit hard in his last start, allowing the Yankees two HRs in NY, but did strike out six of 23 batters, leaving his owners with something. I won’t spend too much time extolling his virtues here because, despite a 20.7 K-BB% (ninth in baseball), an incredibly tough matchup makes him difficult to use tonight. Consider that even with a game in Colorado on the docket, the Blue Jays rate as the toughest park adjusted matchup tonight. They are the top offense at home and it’s not even close (7.0 K-BB%, 15.7 HR/FB), now the top offense vs RHP (14.8 HR/FB), and the hottest offense in baseball (1.2 K-BB%, 25.0 HR/FB, 18.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week).
David Price went fewer than seven innings for only the second time in 10 starts, but has only gone fewer than six innings once in his last 22 starts. He has at least six strikeouts with three ERs or fewer in each of his last five starts. An above average K% and the ability to consistently get deep into games gives him a nice floor. He’s bounced around a bit, but has a 22.4 K% at wherever he’s called home since last season and 19.4 K-BB% this season overall. Cleveland has great plate discipline (9.7 K-BB% vs LHP) and has been hot over the last week (7.1 K-BB%, 16.4 Hard-Soft%). They are an unfavorable park adjusted matchup in a tough park.
Gio Gonzalez is a not so elite ground ball guy (54.1%) with league average K and BB numbers (12.1 K-BB%), but just average contact management skills, when combined with a poor defense, has led to a more difficult year for him. I’ve espoused a theory about Washington doing this to him in order to allow him to go deeper into games more consistently by cutting down his pitch count. It, like many things Washington has done this year, has backfired. He’s failed to pitch more than five innings in six of his last seven starts. His upside tonight is facing a team that is well below average against LHP and missing many of its top RH bats. The Cardinals have 4.2 Hard-Soft% and 22.7 K% vs lefties. They are a neutral home offense and a slightly favorable park adjusted matchup here.
Jerad Eickhoff began his second major league start by living up in the zone with breaking pitches that got smacked by the Mets early on, but then was able to refine his location and made through six innings relatively unscathed after the first inning and has struck out 11 of 49 major league batters so far with a 9.9 SwStr% that supports it. This is about what he’s done in the minors since reaching AA last season, but you would expect a drop off in the majors and it’s still a super-short sample size to be sure. What he has done is peak my interest, though. If he can’t locate the secondary stuff, he’ll be toast and there will surely be frustrating innings and games where those hangers are hammered (22.2 Hard-Soft%, though he has not allowed a HR so far), but his value can be glimpsed when he does locate well. The Mets are a decent offense at home and have just a 4.5 K-BB% over the last week. A large park adjustment makes them a slightly favorable matchup here.
John Lackey has a league average 12.2 K-BB% this year with a HR rate leveling off over the summer months, but a 16.6 K-BB% with a 5.6 HR/FB at home since last season. He keeps his walk rate low and generates just enough strikeouts to be occasionally useful, though he’s missed a few more bats in August. Washington is a slightly below average offense (22.2 K% on the road, 21.4 K% vs RHP), but has some power (12.9 HR/FB on the road, 13.4 HR/FB vs RHP) and has been hot (22.9 HR/FB, 21.3 Hard-Soft% over the last week). They represent a slightly above average offense with the park adjustment.
Kyle Hendricks has allowed between three and five ERs in no more than six innings in six of his last seven starts but has struck out 13 of his last 51 batters. He has an above average 15.2 K-BB% this year that matches his mark at home since last season, though he has struggled with HRs at times with worsened control since the All-Star break (8.7 BB%). Contact management (5.6 Hard-Soft%) has been a strength this year. He faces a poor offense both on the road and vs RHP, representing a favorable matchup even in an offensive-friendly environment.
Editor’s Note: Mike Foltynewicz has been scratched from today’s start. Shelby Miller will start in his place for the Braves.
Mike Foltynewicz has not exceeded six innings in any of his last nine starts and has had a poor overall season, despite a league average 12.0 K-BB% and reasonable, if below average 13.8 Hard-Soft%. He has allowed 17 HRs in just 86.2 innings, which would give him close to 40 over a full season in a decent park. The reason we have for paying any attention to him tonight is one of tonight’s top matchups against the worst offense vs RHP in baseball and 6.5 Hard-Soft% overall.
Tyson Ross makes it so that all three qualified pitchers with a ground ball rate above 60% are pitching tonight. His 62.5 GB% is just behind Keuchel’s, but his excellent 4.8 Hard-Soft% is the worst of the three. However, he combines this with the highest strikeout rate of the three (25.2%). He does struggle with his walk rate against LHBs though and Texas has an abundance of them in the middle of the order, though they’ve been just average against RHP and get a downward park adjustment into a very good matchup here.
Vidal Nuno hasn’t been great in a starting role for the Mariners in August, but has exhibited a league average 9.4 SwStr% and could generate some upside tonight in a matchup against the Astros (24.6 K% at home, 23.1 K% vs LHP). He is, however, a fly ball pitcher (0.89 career GB/FB) with a HR problem (11.5 career HR/FB) and that could get him into some trouble in Houston (17.6 HR/FB at home, 13.3 HR/FB vs LHP). Overall, it’s a slightly unfavorable park adjusted matchup.
Wei-Yin Chen has an above average 14.0 K-BB% this year and a 14.9 K-BB% at home since last season. He’s a fly ball pitcher who generates a lot of weak contact (4.4 Hard-Soft%) and pop ups, but also a few more HRs than the average pitcher in a tough park. The Rays are a funny team. They are somehow the third best offense vs LHP despite a 21.7 K% and 6.7 Hard-Soft%. Overall, they rate as a difficult park adjusted matchup here.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Hector Santiago (.257 BABIP – 83.3 LOB% – 9.8 HR/FB) – In August, Santiago has 5.13 ERA due to 67.7 LOB%, even with a lower .219 BABIP. Oakland will hurt the one reasonable thing he had going for him from a DFS standpoint (a slightly above average K%) as well.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Robbie Ross – The Rockies are so bad against LHP that a better lefty might be worth considering here, but let’s see how his 23.4 Hard-Soft% and 6.0 HR/FB fares in Colorado (although it’s a more reasonable 9.7 Hard-Soft% vs LHBs).
Jake Peavy – The Dodgers are now the third best offense vs RHP after being no-hit twice in a 10-day span by RHPs. Baseball never ceases to amaze.
Michael Lorenzen is unlikely to turn today’s top opposing strikeout bump into a useful fantasy performance.
Chad Bettis – The Diamondbacks are playing a game in Colorado tonight. Can I assume we’ll all be on Inciarte and Peralta heavily tonight? I haven’t even looked at hitter pricing yet.
Colby Lewis has a total of seven walks and seven strikeouts over his last three starts (18 innings).
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 18.3% | 3.3% | Home | 19.8% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 7.4% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 17.1% | 6.9% | Home | 12.8% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 2.0% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 17.8% | 8.8% | Home | 17.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 25.7% | 7.4% | Road | 27.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 40.4% | 3.5% |
| Chris Narveson | Marlins | 22.4% | 9.0% | Road | 23.4% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 11.1% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 17.3% | 5.7% | Road | 16.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 5.8% | 9.6% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 20.6% | 6.0% | Home | 22.4% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 1.9% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 27.0% | 7.0% | Road | 26.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 2.1% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 25.3% | 4.2% | Home | 25.9% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 30.9% | 3.6% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 17.7% | 6.9% | Home | 17.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| Felix Doubront | Athletics | 14.8% | 9.2% | Home | 16.6% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 17.7% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 22.8% | 8.5% | Road | 23.2% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 20.2% | 9.1% | Road | 22.2% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 14.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 14.4% | 7.7% | Road | 12.2% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 13.3% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 18.2% | 7.6% | Road | 16.6% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 7.6% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | 22.5% | 4.1% | Road | 23.1% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 4.1% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 18.9% | 5.6% | Home | 21.4% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 3.7% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 18.7% | 5.4% | Home | 19.8% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 7.8% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 15.8% | 12.9% | Road | 17.9% | 12.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 18.8% | 7.5% | Home | 15.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 6.1% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 18.8% | 8.3% | Road | 19.0% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 15.6% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 24.9% | 9.5% | Home | 26.6% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 9.6% |
| Vidal Nuno | Mariners | 20.0% | 6.5% | Road | 18.7% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 5.7% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 19.1% | 5.1% | Home | 18.8% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 3.7% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Road | 20.7% | 5.8% | RH | 20.1% | 5.9% | L7Days | 26.5% | 8.7% |
| Giants | Road | 18.9% | 7.2% | LH | 18.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.8% | 7.4% | RH | 20.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.0% | 6.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.6% | 6.8% | RH | 22.4% | 6.9% | L7Days | 29.4% | 4.9% |
| Braves | Home | 18.5% | 8.8% | LH | 20.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.9% | 13.4% |
| Padres | Home | 22.4% | 6.5% | RH | 21.6% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.4% | 5.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.8% | 7.2% | LH | 22.4% | 6.2% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.6% | 9.6% | RH | 18.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 15.0% | 13.8% |
| Indians | Road | 18.8% | 8.7% | LH | 18.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.6% | 8.6% | LH | 18.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 19.5% | 12.6% |
| Angels | Road | 18.9% | 7.2% | LH | 18.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.0% | 8.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.7% | 8.4% | LH | 22.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 17.5% | 9.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 16.0% | 7.3% | LH | 16.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 17.0% | 6.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.0% | 7.6% | RH | 17.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 28.6% | 4.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.2% | 8.5% | RH | 20.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.9% | 7.4% |
| Mets | Home | 20.3% | 8.5% | RH | 20.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 15.4% | 10.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.2% | 8.3% | RH | 21.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.6% | 9.8% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 7.3% | RH | 19.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.0% | 9.6% |
| Cubs | Home | 23.9% | 9.4% | RH | 24.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 31.6% | 6.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.0% | 6.0% | RH | 19.2% | 6.4% | L7Days | 17.3% | 2.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.3% | 7.0% | LH | 23.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.9% | 7.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 21.7% | 6.8% | RH | 19.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 15.8% | 7.2% |
| Astros | Home | 24.6% | 8.5% | LH | 23.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.2% | 9.5% |
| Rays | Road | 20.8% | 7.3% | LH | 21.5% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.4% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 21.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | Home | 20.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 15.0% | 13.8% | 2.4% | Home | 16.6% | 15.9% | 1.6% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.5% | Home | 26.3% | 18.0% | 2.0% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 21.9% | 9.5% | 10.7% | Road | 21.7% | 9.3% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Chris Narveson | Marlins | 20.0% | 21.7% | 4.3% | Road | 25.8% | 20.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 23.5% | 5.9% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 21.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | Road | 21.0% | 10.3% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 19.1% | 10.2% | 12.1% | Home | 18.5% | 6.1% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 21.6% | 11.9% | 9.9% | Road | 21.5% | 11.2% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 21.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | Home | 21.3% | 8.7% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 22.2% | 13.2% | 15.4% | Home | 21.3% | 14.8% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Felix Doubront | Athletics | 20.3% | 9.5% | 12.4% | Home | 14.8% | 14.5% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 20.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | Road | 21.1% | 4.4% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 18.5% | 8.9% | 11.4% | Road | 17.6% | 8.4% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | 17.3% | 12.6% | 7.1% | Road | 21.4% | 8.8% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 19.9% | 8.3% | 9.9% | Road | 21.1% | 6.6% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | 22.2% | 0.0% | 5.9% | Road | 21.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 20.5% | 10.4% | 11.8% | Home | 22.1% | 5.9% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 20.9% | 9.2% | 11.7% | Home | 20.9% | 12.5% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 27.0% | 15.8% | 5.3% | Road | 24.7% | 15.8% | 1.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 22.7% | 12.8% | 12.2% | Home | 21.8% | 11.2% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 21.2% | 7.7% | 5.6% | Road | 22.0% | 8.5% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 20.5% | 9.7% | 6.3% | Home | 18.8% | 4.8% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vidal Nuno | Mariners | 18.2% | 12.1% | 8.5% | Road | 18.2% | 12.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 20.7% | 11.7% | 10.5% | Home | 21.5% | 13.1% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 4.3% | 21.7% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Road | 22.8% | 7.9% | 8.8% | RH | 22.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 23.5% | 17.6% | 7.8% |
| Giants | Road | 22.3% | 12.2% | 6.3% | LH | 21.5% | 8.4% | 5.2% | L7Days | 21.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.3% | 11.3% | 9.9% | RH | 21.6% | 10.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.2% | 6.1% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.7% | 16.0% | 7.7% | RH | 20.8% | 15.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| Braves | Home | 21.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | LH | 20.6% | 10.3% | 6.1% | L7Days | 20.5% | 15.4% | 5.1% |
| Padres | Home | 20.2% | 11.4% | 7.5% | RH | 19.3% | 10.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 16.3% | 11.4% | 11.4% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.9% | 13.9% | 7.3% | LH | 22.0% | 14.8% | 10.8% | L7Days | 21.8% | 20.3% | 13.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.4% | 15.7% | 14.2% | RH | 19.1% | 14.8% | 12.9% | L7Days | 23.7% | 25.0% | 16.2% |
| Indians | Road | 20.7% | 10.2% | 10.5% | LH | 23.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 26.8% | 11.4% | 9.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.2% | 12.1% | 8.2% | LH | 18.8% | 12.2% | 12.0% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.4% | 9.0% |
| Angels | Road | 18.7% | 10.4% | 8.9% | LH | 18.1% | 10.1% | 11.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 8.2% | 6.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | LH | 20.0% | 10.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 19.5% | 14.0% | 3.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.7% | 6.6% | 11.7% | LH | 19.0% | 7.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 19.9% | 13.1% | 9.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.0% | 11.3% | 9.3% | RH | 20.4% | 10.1% | 10.4% | L7Days | 16.3% | 15.2% | 8.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.4% | 13.5% | 8.2% | RH | 21.6% | 13.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.2% | 10.6% | 12.8% |
| Mets | Home | 21.6% | 12.0% | 12.3% | RH | 22.5% | 10.6% | 12.0% | L7Days | 25.1% | 15.9% | 8.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.9% | 12.9% | 9.0% | RH | 20.7% | 13.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.3% | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| Reds | Road | 19.6% | 9.9% | 8.9% | RH | 21.0% | 9.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.3% | 10.9% | 7.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.2% | 12.5% | 11.1% | RH | 20.2% | 12.6% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 14.3% | 9.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.7% | 11.6% | 8.8% | RH | 20.0% | 9.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.5% | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.3% | 13.3% | 8.3% | LH | 21.9% | 7.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.8% | 11.2% | 9.5% | RH | 19.0% | 10.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.2% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Astros | Home | 18.0% | 17.6% | 10.1% | LH | 20.0% | 13.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.4% | 11.5% | 8.2% |
| Rays | Road | 21.0% | 9.9% | 10.2% | LH | 20.6% | 12.0% | 10.8% | L7Days | 25.3% | 11.3% | 8.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 17.7% | 6.5% | 2.72 | 16.6% | 5.3% | 3.13 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 16.3% | 6.9% | 2.36 | 14.2% | 6.5% | 2.18 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 19.7% | 9.7% | 2.03 | 19.1% | 5.7% | 3.35 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 31.1% | 13.6% | 2.29 | 31.7% | 13.7% | 2.31 |
| Chris Narveson | FLA | 22.4% | 8.9% | 2.52 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 2.52 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 17.1% | 8.1% | 2.11 | 11.9% | 7.0% | 1.70 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 22.8% | 9.6% | 2.38 | 23.9% | 9.9% | 2.41 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 27.7% | 12.2% | 2.27 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 2.38 |
| David Price | TOR | 24.3% | 11.6% | 2.09 | 28.5% | 12.5% | 2.28 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 17.7% | 7.4% | 2.39 | 12.4% | 5.7% | 2.18 |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 16.9% | 9.0% | 1.88 | 22.1% | 11.5% | 1.92 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 20.7% | 9.4% | 2.20 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 2.28 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 21.7% | 8.5% | 2.55 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 2.39 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 14.6% | 7.1% | 2.06 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 2.61 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 17.1% | 7.5% | 2.28 | 19.2% | 7.6% | 2.53 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 22.5% | 9.9% | 2.27 | 22.5% | 9.9% | 2.27 |
| John Lackey | STL | 17.9% | 8.9% | 2.01 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 1.91 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 20.9% | 7.6% | 2.75 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.65 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 15.8% | 8.5% | 1.86 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 1.95 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 19.3% | 8.9% | 2.17 | 13.5% | 7.5% | 1.80 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 20.5% | 8.2% | 2.50 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 1.79 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 25.2% | 12.5% | 2.02 | 24.8% | 12.9% | 1.92 |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 22.8% | 11.0% | 2.07 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 1.76 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 19.5% | 8.8% | 2.22 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 2.20 |
Bartolo Colon is right on the edge of the accepted zone as K/SwStr goes, but has spent most of the past three to four seasons well past that zone. He’s a pinpoint control artist who has had quality framers to work with this season and has become one of the few potential outliers that we’ve learned to accept to a certain degree. Although his August has been a bit worse, he’s had at least a 6.4 SwStr% in each of his last three starts.
Kyle Hendricks has a 2.75 K/SwStr that’s incredibly borderline and a very good framing catcher in Miguel Montero. Amazingly, he had a 1.78 K/SwStr in 80 innings last year, so maybe we shouldn’t expect him to strike out batters at a league average rate continuing forward without continued improvement in his SwStr%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.65 | 3.9 | -0.75 | 3.92 | -0.73 | 3.94 | -0.71 | 3.51 | 4.14 | 0.63 | 4.19 | 0.68 | 4.32 | 0.81 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 3.36 | 3.39 | 0.03 | 3.47 | 0.11 | 3.84 | 0.48 | 4.25 | 3.44 | -0.81 | 3.54 | -0.71 | 4.47 | 0.22 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 4.69 | 4.11 | -0.58 | 3.94 | -0.75 | 4.12 | -0.57 | 1.8 | 3.62 | 1.82 | 3.59 | 1.79 | 2.72 | 0.92 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 2.88 | 2.65 | -0.23 | 2.6 | -0.28 | 2.54 | -0.34 | 4.32 | 2.73 | -1.59 | 2.68 | -1.64 | 2.55 | -1.77 |
| Chris Narveson | FLA | 7.04 | 3.92 | -3.12 | 4.5 | -2.54 | 6.57 | -0.47 | 7.04 | 3.93 | -3.11 | 4.5 | -2.54 | 6.57 | -0.47 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 4.38 | 4.31 | -0.07 | 4.55 | 0.17 | 4.28 | -0.1 | 4.22 | 5.13 | 0.91 | 5.04 | 0.82 | 5.9 | 1.68 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.28 | 2.77 | 0.49 | 2.69 | 0.41 | 2.65 | 0.37 | 2.08 | 2.9 | 0.82 | 2.91 | 0.83 | 2.28 | 0.2 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 3.3 | 3.14 | -0.16 | 3.25 | -0.05 | 3.65 | 0.35 | 1.91 | 3.66 | 1.75 | 3.83 | 1.92 | 4.09 | 2.18 |
| David Price | TOR | 2.42 | 3.3 | 0.88 | 3.33 | 0.91 | 2.94 | 0.52 | 1.98 | 2.88 | 0.9 | 3.15 | 1.17 | 2.51 | 0.53 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.39 | 4.16 | -0.23 | 4.02 | -0.37 | 4.29 | -0.1 | 4.65 | 4.21 | -0.44 | 4.05 | -0.6 | 4.47 | -0.18 |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 3.7 | 3.88 | 0.18 | 4.01 | 0.31 | 3.24 | -0.46 | 2.41 | 3.86 | 1.45 | 4.28 | 1.87 | 3.12 | 0.71 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 4.11 | 3.78 | -0.33 | 3.61 | -0.5 | 3.19 | -0.92 | 5.1 | 3.94 | -1.16 | 3.84 | -1.26 | 3.12 | -1.98 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.13 | 4.16 | 1.03 | 4.62 | 1.49 | 4.37 | 1.24 | 5.74 | 4.84 | -0.9 | 5.48 | -0.26 | 6.21 | 0.47 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 4.5 | 4.7 | 0.2 | 4.68 | 0.18 | 4.42 | -0.08 | 5.93 | 4.43 | -1.5 | 4.55 | -1.38 | 4.07 | -1.86 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 4.21 | 4.41 | 0.2 | 4.45 | 0.24 | 3.98 | -0.23 | 4.34 | 4.24 | -0.1 | 4.2 | -0.14 | 3.5 | -0.84 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 2.25 | 3.64 | 1.39 | 3.83 | 1.58 | 1.78 | -0.47 | 2.25 | 3.64 | 1.39 | 3.83 | 1.58 | 1.78 | -0.47 |
| John Lackey | STL | 2.92 | 4.06 | 1.14 | 3.99 | 1.07 | 3.62 | 0.7 | 3.51 | 4 | 0.49 | 3.94 | 0.43 | 4.2 | 0.69 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4.11 | 3.5 | -0.61 | 3.39 | -0.72 | 3.5 | -0.61 | 5.4 | 3.5 | -1.9 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 3.91 | -1.49 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 5.46 | 5.27 | -0.19 | 5.12 | -0.34 | 5.75 | 0.29 | 11.25 | 5.21 | -6.04 | 5.8 | -5.45 | 4.95 | -6.3 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 5.71 | 4.25 | -1.46 | 4.55 | -1.16 | 5.03 | -0.68 | 7.27 | 4.88 | -2.39 | 5.14 | -2.13 | 6.58 | -0.69 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.86 | 4.12 | 0.26 | 4.16 | 0.3 | 3.43 | -0.43 | 7.03 | 4.82 | -2.21 | 4.8 | -2.23 | 5.21 | -1.82 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 3.42 | 3.36 | -0.06 | 3.13 | -0.29 | 2.87 | -0.55 | 3.56 | 3.1 | -0.46 | 2.96 | -0.6 | 2.62 | -0.94 |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 2.88 | 3.32 | 0.44 | 3.78 | 0.9 | 4.06 | 1.18 | 4.35 | 4.2 | -0.15 | 4.43 | 0.08 | 6.31 | 1.96 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 3.17 | 3.94 | 0.77 | 4.04 | 0.87 | 4.27 | 1.1 | 4.19 | 3.92 | -0.27 | 3.9 | -0.29 | 4.11 | -0.08 |
Bartolo Colon – Oddly, his ERA has dropped over the last month as his estimators declined and it’s oddly almost all in the strand rate. While he’s had a LOB well below 70% for most of the season, leading to an ERA well above his estimators, his 83.3 LOB% in August led to a gap in the other direction, though he still has 69.3 LOB% for the season. Interestingly, his .298 BABIP in August is his first month below .300 since April, which is the only other month with a LOB% above 70. His .315 BABIP for the season is a bit high and if you want to note increased hard contact, that’s not really happening, as his 12.3 Hard-Soft% is around league average and his best mark since 2011, so it’s really the bunching of those hits that’s hurt him more and the increased HR rate obviously (11.3 HR/FB), but that has nothing to do with BABIP.
Brett Anderson has a 66.9 LOB% and 23.5 HR/FB in August, which sounds terrible, but he only allowed 17 fly balls in five starts (four HRs).
David Price has an 80.0 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB that may be challenged in Toronto, although he can’t have many more starts there. He does have a 7.0 HR/FB in August (since the trade) and has allowed just one HR in two home starts.
John Lackey has seen his now 8.5 HR/FB rise in the warmer weather (10.0 HR/FB in July, 12.8 HR/FB in August), but has seen his strand rate rise as well (96.5% in July, 80.0% in August) and has an 80.6 LOB% for the season. If he can’t maintain the HR suppression, he’s going to need the additional strikeouts his August SwStr% suggest may be possible to keep his ERA reasonable the rest of the way.
Kyle Hendricks has a 70.0 LOB% that’s a little close to the edge, but still fine and also a 12.2 HR/FB now. He has a .391 BABIP and 62.0 LOB% over his last three starts.
Editor’s Note: Mike Foltynewicz has been scratched from today’s start. Shelby Miller will start in his place for the Braves.
Mike Foltynewicz has allowed a .349 BABIP and 13.7 HR/FB off of a 0.77 GB/FB. He has a 23.2 LD% and 13.8 Hard-Soft% and none of this is good and all of it plays a big role in his 67.7 LOB%, but it’s not like he’s allowing the hardest or most frequent hard contact in the league and his 12.0 K-BB% suggests more league average capabilities. It’s not good, but there is some hope and maybe it starts against a bad offense tonight.
Vidal Nuno has done most of his work this year out of the bullpen, but has started almost exclusively in August with a 92.9 LOB% that nearly matches his 90.3 LOB% for the season.
Wei-Yin Chen is stranding 82.7% of his base runners. His FIP is even higher due to a 12.6 HR/FB and 0.99 GB/FB.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.282 | 0.315 | 0.033 | 7.1% | 89.8% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.300 | 0.306 | 0.006 | 1.1% | 92.4% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.316 | 0.301 | -0.015 | 5.6% | 93.2% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.283 | 0.293 | 0.01 | 8.5% | 83.8% |
| Chris Narveson | FLA | 0.294 | 0.268 | -0.026 | 4.3% | 86.5% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.294 | 0.280 | -0.014 | 8.9% | 89.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.280 | 0.266 | -0.014 | 15.1% | 90.1% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.291 | 0.266 | -0.025 | 6.4% | 82.3% |
| David Price | TOR | 0.282 | 0.289 | 0.007 | 11.4% | 81.8% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.307 | 0.270 | -0.037 | 15.4% | 89.7% |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 0.283 | 0.338 | 0.055 | 17.5% | 89.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.306 | 0.350 | 0.044 | 2.0% | 86.9% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.286 | 0.257 | -0.029 | 10.3% | 86.1% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0.299 | 0.277 | -0.022 | 12.3% | 91.9% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.286 | 0.297 | 0.011 | 7.1% | 91.4% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.316 | 0.306 | -0.01 | 5.9% | 86.3% |
| John Lackey | STL | 0.293 | 0.288 | -0.005 | 11.7% | 89.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.294 | 0.305 | 0.011 | 9.6% | 90.1% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 0.287 | 0.300 | 0.013 | 5.3% | 87.1% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.307 | 0.349 | 0.042 | 8.9% | 88.5% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.293 | 0.311 | 0.018 | 5.0% | 88.1% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 0.299 | 0.337 | 0.038 | 4.1% | 85.1% |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 0.297 | 0.288 | -0.009 | 8.6% | 86.1% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 0.293 | 0.284 | -0.009 | 11.5% | 87.5% |
Gio Gonzalez has become the victim of a BABIP bloodbath due to two factors which may not change. We mentioned the bane of a defense. Make sure your infield can turn ground balls into outs if you’re going to turn strikeouts into them. As a consequence of such, his IFFB% (free outs) have become non-existent. We’ve seen that many of the higher ground ball rates also enjoy great contact authority rates as well. This is not the case for him. His 10.3 Hard-Soft% is just average.
Tyson Ross doesn’t get many pop ups, but generates lots of weak ground balls with a perfectly average 20.0 LD%. It seems he’s been a bit unfortunate in his BABIP, but a 6.8 HR/FB has stopped it from affecting his ERA too much.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Jerad Eickhoff doesn’t have the greatest stuff and can get hammered living up in the zone, but when he locates it well, it plays and you can see why the Phillies had some interest in him as a return piece in the Hamels trade. Ultimately, he’s probably closer to a back end of the rotation, but is priced as spot starter here and should be able to do better than that in a favorable park.
Kyle Hendricks has gotten beat up a bit in recent starts, but has maintained and even increased his K% slightly over the last month and faces a below average offense at a reduced price tonight.
Value Tier Two
Brett Anderson faces a banged-up team in a favorable park at a reasonable price, although a bit higher than we usually find him and about an average price tag overall. His super elite ground ball rate even leaves the elite ground ball rates behind and he should be a fine fallback option if looking to pair someone from the top of the board with a lower priced pitcher.
Tyson Ross (3t) combines an elite ground ball rate with a lot more strikeouts than Anderson, but that’s why you’re paying much more. He’s still a lot cheaper than the top of the board options and might be able to give you close to the same results at home.
Bartolo Colon dominated these Phillies the last time out and now gets a more favorable park to do it in. You shouldn’t expect the same results, but he should be decent at a reasonable price against a team without much power.
Chris Archer (1) has far and away my top projected strikeout rate tonight, but you’re going to have to pay one of the top three prices on the board for it and although it may not be the worst overall matchup against a high strikeout team, it is a risky one in a tough park against an offense with a lot of power. Despite all the strikeouts, he has been hit hard in two of his last three starts, though completely dominant in the one sandwiched in the middle.
Value Tier Three
Dallas Keuchel (2) is the elite ground ball generator that you’re going to have to pay the most for and while he doesn’t strike out as many batters as Ross, it is a higher than average strikeout rate and he generates the weakest contact of the three and has the least holes in his overall game. That’s why you’re paying the highest price for him. He doesn’t have the strikeout upside of Archer though and it’s not the greatest matchup in the world. Seattle hits the ball hard, but he should be able to keep them grounded.
Gio Gonzalez is mostly here because the Cardinals can’t hit LHP and should give a slight boost to his strikeout rate at a mid-range price, though lower on DraftKings, where I also like him more because strikeouts mean much more than wins there.
Vidal Nuno could get hammered, but he could also generate a league average or slightly better strikeout rate at or near the minimum price.
David Price (3t) has the high floor and an above average projected strikeout rate tonight, but pitches against a well disciplined and hot offense in a tough park at one of the top three prices tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Chris Narveson probably has no business being in a major league rotation and wouldn’t be if he were with a major league organization, but has missed a few bats and gets a terrible offense against LHP. The Braves don’t strike out much, but do K at an average rate against lefties. He might be able to turn the absolute minimum price tag into what you might expect for that price.
Wei-Yin Chen
Editor’s Note: Mike Foltynewicz has been scratched from today’s start. Shelby Miller will start in his place for the Braves.
Mike Foltynewicz – A ton of holes, but a bit of upside in a great spot too.
Danny Salazar might be too scary a proposition in that environment at a high price.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.