Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, June 15th
Normally, we get to start the week with a nice 10 game or so slate, a way to ease back into things after the weekend, but the best way to describe the schedule this week might be abundant. Every team is in action tonight and every day this week as MLB goes heavy on the interleague thing, splitting two game home and home series between random non rivalries. I don’t know exactly why the schedule would work out like this, but it has and now we’ll have to deal with it. Look for some AL pitchers starting in NL parks to get a bump without having to face the DH and also some of those same AL teams potentially losing a big bat offensively if the DH has to sit.
You also want to use lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day. It may either strengthen or in some cases, completely change the information provided below.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | -1.6 | 4.31 | 6.06 | 0.93 | 1.04 | 4.41 | 6.05 | BAL | 108 | 101 | 135 | 17.7% | 8.1% | 21.1% | 13.2% | 8.7% |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 9.1 | 3.61 | 6.1 | 1.23 | 1.05 | 3.82 | 5.02 | CIN | 85 | 93 | 108 | 19.4% | 7.8% | 19.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 7.4 | 3.59 | 5.31 | 2.26 | 1.08 | 3.42 | 3.81 | TEX | 105 | 100 | 95 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 19.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -6.3 | 4.41 | 5.68 | 1.33 | 0.91 | 3.79 | 3.21 | PIT | 95 | 81 | 66 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 25.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.7 | 4.33 | 5.43 | 1.53 | 1.01 | 3.99 | 3.91 | HOU | 105 | 102 | 110 | 21.7% | 8.9% | 23.6% | 9.5% | 9.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -6 | 3.21 | 6.72 | 3.14 | 1.01 | 3 | 2.56 | COL | 84 | 68 | 69 | 23.3% | 6.0% | 19.2% | 11.1% | 6.9% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 14.4 | 4.12 | 5.84 | 1.58 | 1.07 | 3.9 | 3.8 | MIL | 81 | 80 | 56 | 21.4% | 7.4% | 19.7% | 10.7% | 7.7% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 10.4 | 4.25 | 5.09 | 1.14 | 0.94 | 4.71 | 3.45 | WAS | 98 | 98 | 92 | 19.7% | 7.3% | 21.9% | 11.2% | 6.6% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | -5.6 | 3.45 | 5.93 | 2 | 0.91 | 3.36 | 2.34 | CHW | 82 | 47 | 95 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 19.3% | 12.5% | 12.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -3.8 | 3.51 | 6. | 1.48 | 0.94 | 3.41 | 4.36 | TAM | 107 | 106 | 90 | 23.0% | 8.7% | 20.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 1.8 | 3.14 | 6.17 | 1.64 | 1.05 | 2.84 | 2.05 | CLE | 95 | 107 | 98 | 22.9% | 6.3% | 22.8% | 9.4% | 11.1% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 3.4 | 4.26 | 6.41 | 0.71 | 0.91 | 3.83 | 6.54 | ARI | 96 | 94 | 78 | 17.3% | 6.8% | 19.9% | 9.5% | 12.0% |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | -9.3 | 3.78 | 5.84 | 2.1 | 0.84 | 3.79 | 4.61 | SDG | 91 | 89 | 84 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 23.0% | 6.3% | 9.0% |
| John Lackey | STL | 6.5 | 3.67 | 6.52 | 1.26 | 0.98 | 3.23 | 3.96 | MIN | 73 | 85 | 81 | 20.2% | 5.5% | 20.6% | 8.7% | 11.2% |
| Jon Moscot | CIN | 1.9 | 5.71 | 5.5 | 0.88 | 1.05 | 5.71 | DET | 109 | 107 | 138 | ||||||
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | -1.7 | 4.08 | 6.22 | 1.01 | 1.07 | 3.67 | 4.2 | KAN | 99 | 97 | 55 | 16.7% | 4.6% | 21.4% | 11.5% | 8.9% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 2.8 | 4.29 | 6.31 | 1.33 | 0.88 | 4.2 | 3.59 | NYM | 107 | 109 | 112 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 21.6% | 12.9% | 10.3% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | -7.1 | 2.71 | 6.62 | 1.48 | 1.01 | 2.52 | 1.87 | FLA | 83 | 81 | 95 | 23.3% | 4.5% | 19.6% | 11.1% | 7.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | -0.7 | 3.19 | 5.7 | 1.47 | 0.88 | 3.76 | 2.34 | TOR | 107 | 111 | 145 | 20.1% | 5.2% | 20.9% | 14.3% | 12.3% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | -3.6 | 3.78 | 6.38 | 1.7 | 1.07 | 3.74 | 3.17 | ATL | 90 | 98 | 109 | 17.2% | 5.7% | 22.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.3 | 4.57 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 0.91 | 3.82 | 4.89 | ANA | 108 | 100 | 112 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 25.1% | 11.1% | 8.6% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -5.2 | 4.04 | 5.41 | 1.18 | 0.87 | 4.34 | 3.41 | SFO | 98 | 110 | 96 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 21.0% | 11.4% | 8.2% |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | -3.8 | 3.79 | 6.22 | 2.24 | 0.87 | 3.38 | 3.82 | SEA | 86 | 89 | 76 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 18.5% | 10.0% | 11.4% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 7.1 | 4.38 | 5.82 | 1.2 | 1.01 | 3.98 | 2.76 | NYY | 96 | 107 | 110 | 20.0% | 7.5% | 20.1% | 13.5% | 7.6% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | -5 | 4 | 5.83 | 0.82 | 1.05 | 4.2 | 5.75 | CHC | 89 | 92 | 112 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 21.3% | 10.6% | 7.1% |
| Trevor May | MIN | 3.3 | 3.84 | 5.3 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 3.42 | 2.85 | STL | 109 | 103 | 103 | 22.9% | 7.8% | 23.4% | 8.5% | 10.8% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | -16 | 3.17 | 6.16 | 2.63 | 0.84 | 2.83 | 3.34 | OAK | 95 | 108 | 92 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 21.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 6.9 | 3.86 | 6. | 0.99 | 1.04 | 3.73 | 2.97 | PHI | 73 | 94 | 65 | 20.1% | 5.7% | 24.6% | 7.0% | 13.8% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 0.4 | 4.25 | 6. | 2.04 | 1.07 | 4.33 | 4.88 | BOS | 105 | 96 | 88 | 18.0% | 10.4% | 22.9% | 9.5% | 5.3% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | -0.8 | 3.86 | 5.92 | 1.73 | 1.08 | 3.82 | 2.63 | LOS | 108 | 123 | 110 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 19.5% | 11.5% | 7.5% |
Anibal Sanchez has been really inconsistent this year. He has at least seven strikeouts in four of his last six starts, but a total of six walks and just three strikeouts in his other two. He’s pitched at least seven innings in each of his last three starts, but has allowed fewer than three runs only three times in his last nine starts. It really ends up depending on whether he can keep the ball in the park or not (13.5 HR/FB this year, but only 7.5 HR/FB at home since last year). Cincinnati is not very good on the road or vs RHP, but generally doesn’t strike out too much and has some power, making them about a neutral matchup with the park adjustment.
Carlos Frias doesn’t have much upside (only more than three Ks twice this season), but generally doesn’t need to considering the prices he’s usually offered at. He keeps the ball on the ground (2.94 GB/FB) and doesn’t really walk a lot of batters. He loses a little something in the park adjustment, making Texas one of the tougher matchups of the day.
Carlos Rodon has improved his control (just a total of five walks over his last three starts), but hasn’t really consistently shown the strikeout ability we all expected. He’s had more than five just twice in six starts. He has a good matchup against Pittsburgh in a pitcher’s park. They struggle against LHP with a 25.2 K%.
Chad Bettis has only started two games outside of Colorado. One was against the Dodgers, where he struggled, but the other was a near no hitter in Philadelphia. Overall, it’s hard to say he’s been bad at all, although he hasn’t allowed a HR yet. With a normalized HR rate, he projects as potentially a league average pitcher, which is someone you might be able to consider using occasionally on the road, in the right situation. He has allowed frequent hard contact, but it’s hard to separate Colorado from that equation and he only has the two road starts this year. It’s hard to tell if this is such a matchup. The Astros strike out 25.6% at home and 25.5% vs RHP, but have an 18.9 HR/FB at home and 15.3 HR/FB vs RHP.
Dallas Keuchel remains the best in the league at generating weak contact this year (-6.3 Hard-Soft%) and usually that’s on the ground. He has at least 10 ground balls in every start and 12 in all but one. In addition, he now has nearly a league average strikeout rate. He has a great matchup against the Rockies, who struggle on the road and are the 3rd worst offense vs LHP, striking out 25.7% of the time with just a 6.5 HR/FB. They’ve struck out 27.3% over the last week and 25.1% on the road.
Edinson Volquez hasn’t pitched poorly lately and has a good matchup against one of the coldest teams in baseball, who haven’t hit at home or vs RHP all season and strike out more than average. The park is a bit scary for someone who’s had HR issues throughout his career (11.1 HR/FB) and a 13.4 HR/FB on the road since the start of last season. Volquez has a 19.6 Hard-Soft% this year.
Erasmo Ramirez has allowed just three ERs over his last 17.1 innings with 15 Ks and just two walks. He has some upside in a matchup at home against the Nationals, who are just an average offense, adjusted down for the park. They do have some power and Ramirez has a 17.2 Hard-Soft% this season.
Francisco Liriano has as much talent as anybody and has pitched really well over his last four starts (five ERs in 27 IP). Even when opposing batters are hitting the ball, they have -2.7 Hard-Soft% against him this season. He does occasionally struggle with the HR ball (15.9 HR/FB at home since last season), but has the absolute top matchup tonight even without park considerations. The White Sox are abysmal vs LHP and have just a 3.0 Hard-Soft% against them.
Gio Gonzalez has had issues with his control over his last few starts and struggled overall this year, but his peripherals paint a better picture that we’ll get to later. The Rays are a good home offense that had been very good against LHP, but have faced a lot of them over the last couple of weeks and come back to the pack. They have just a 6.9 Hard-Soft% vs lefties, strike out more than league average, and lose enough offense to make them nothing more than a league average matchup in this spot.
Jake Arrieta has seen his SwStr rate rise from a below average standpoint in April, but has consistently struck out at least five in every starts this season, giving himself a great daily fantasy floor in that respect. His overall ERA estimators above, rival any pitcher on the board today over the last couple of years. He has an amazing 0.6 Hard-Soft% this season and a 4.6% rate over the last two calendar years with a 19.9 K-BB% and 6.3 HR/FB at home as a Cub. That said, he faces his second tough AL offense vs RHP and the Indians have struck out just 16.7% on the road. They do lose the DH tonight though and it remains to be seen how they’ll handle that (Carlos Santana at 1B?).
Jesse Hahn hasn’t pitched well on the road throughout his young career (4.61 xFIP) and hasn’t missed nearly as many bats as last year, but does keep the ball on the ground and has managed contact well (3.8 Hard-Soft%). He also has a great park adjusted matchup back in his first home against a San Diego offense that might pull that K% up a bit.
John Lackey has had success in St Louis, as have most Cardinal pitchers. He took a beating in Colorado last time out, but had fine peripherals, which potentially helps our cause here as it drags his ERA up. It only enhances matters that the Twins are the 2nd worst road offense in baseball with just a 6.9 HR/FB away from home. They represent a great overall matchup for Lackey here.
Kyle Lohse still profiles as a pitcher with significant regression to come in his ERA. His biggest issue has been HRs though and this matchup should help him out some in that regard, though the park remains an issue. In fact, he almost seems like someone who should be pitching for the Royals. They are the coldest offense in the majors and have a -4.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week. They do have just a 16.8 K% vs RHP though.
Masahiro Tanaka has been pitching like nobody told him his elbow is barely attached. He’s struck out 15 of 48 batters since returning and even seen a small bump in velocity. He combines a low walk rate with those strikeouts, which the Marlins may enhance with a 6.0 BB% vs RHP, giving him the top projected K-BB% tonight and one of the top potential K rates overall. He gets another bump from the big park today and the Marlins are the 3rd worst home offense in baseball. They are also 2nd worst vs RHP.
Noah Syndergaard is an interesting case today and potentially a great spot to find some upside where a lot of people might shy away. He’s allowed 11 ERs over his last 10 innings, with 20 hits allowed to 50 batters. Over those two starts, he has a .529 BABIP, but just a 13.9 Hard-Soft% that’s not great, but not terrible either. I rarely use this word unless I’m absolutely sure, but he has been unlucky in his batted ball dealings in these starts. I know this because I’ve watched. Some balls have been hit hard, as they are in every start, but a lot of times he has made good pitches and balls just found grass. In fact, he’s also had his top two SwStr marks over his last two starts. The Blue Jays look like a real scary matchup. They have the 3rd best road offense, are 2nd best vs RHP, and have been the best offense over the last week, but they face a major park adjustment and what the numbers don’t capture is the loss of a DH and potentially their cleanup hitter tonight. Will Encarnacion play 1B? If he does, this is a slightly worse than average park adjusted matchup for Syndergaard. If not, he’s in a much better spot than it looks.
Rick Porcello has allowed at least five ERs in three of his last four starts, but has 10 strikeouts without a walk or HR over his last two. The problem is that the Braves strike out just 16.8% of the time vs RHP and represent a negative matchup with the park adjustment.
Tim Hudson allowed four runs and lasted only five innings with one strike out against the Mets in his last start when I listed him as a top value. That’s the price you occasionally pay with a low strikeout ground ball pitcher. Fortunately, that was a very low price or it wouldn’t have been recommended in the first place. Of the 19 batted balls in that game, 12 were on the ground. The ground balls have occasionally been hit hard against him (16.4 Hard-Soft% this year) and Seattle has a 15.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, but also strike out 23.1% of the time vs RHP and represent a great matchup in a great park.
Trevor May faces a tough home and overall offense, but are without a few bats now and I’m going to continue to like this guy as long as he and the daily fantasy sites continue to give me sufficient reason to do so. He has a 27.7 K% on the road in his young career, which spans just 206 batters away from home, but isn’t completely insignificant considering it’s one of the quicker stats to stabilize. The Cardinals do have a great 15.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, but don’t hit for much power in a park that suppresses it greatly.
Tyson Ross is a spot pitcher. You generally want to find him at home against offenses that struggle against RHP and frequently chase sliders. We have just one of those factors in our equation tonight. The A’s have hit RHP well, but the park adjustment still leaves him in a very favorable spot. The Oakland offense isn’t really stacked with punishing LHBs and has just a 7.6 Hard-Soft% vs RHP this year. That meshes well with Ross’s 4.3 overall H-S%. They might hurt his overall potential with just a 17.5 K% vs RHP, but he should still generate enough with a high ground ball rate to be more than useful on a day without a lot of real high strikeout options on the board. He’s been remarkably consistent, allowing exactly two or three ERs in every start except for the one where he allowed four.
Wei-Yin Chen has been pitching well and gets the Philly bump tonight. Most times, gaining a DH will help and offense, but in this case, it may just make their lineup even more laughable. It’s a tough park, but they are tied for the 2nd worst road offense in baseball and have a -2.2 Hard-Soft% vs LHP, though they actually look almost respectable with a 94 wRC+ there.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Aaron Harang (.249 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 7.0 HR/FB)
Robbie Ray (.269 BABIP – 91.8 LOB% – 5.6 HR/FB)
Williams Perez (.305 BABIP – 82.6 LOB% – 8.3 HR/FB) – Also an 11.7 BB%.
NO THANK YOU
Taijuan Walker – He’s close, but I would prefer he’d be cheaper to take a shot on here.
Trevor Bauer has a 4.20 road xFIP since the start of last season and has walked 9 of his last 48 batters.
Yovani Gallardo – He’s been ok, but is in a terrible spot here.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 17.5% | 7.7% | Road | 16.0% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 12.7% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 21.8% | 7.0% | Home | 20.6% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 10.2% |
| Carlos Frias | Dodgers | 16.3% | 6.0% | Road | 18.9% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 6.8% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 22.0% | 13.2% | Road | 23.2% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 9.8% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 15.4% | 8.3% | Road | 17.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 10.2% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 19.0% | 6.6% | Home | 19.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 5.7% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 18.4% | 9.0% | Road | 18.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 10.9% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 18.3% | 8.9% | Home | 18.9% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 2.3% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 25.4% | 10.4% | Home | 23.8% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 3.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 23.9% | 8.6% | Road | 23.9% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 13.7% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 25.0% | 7.0% | Home | 26.4% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 2.0% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 17.5% | 6.1% | Home | 21.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | 19.0% | 7.9% | Road | 19.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 6.3% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 19.6% | 5.3% | Home | 22.3% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 1.7% |
| Jon Moscot | Reds | 10.6% | 10.6% | Road | L14 Days | 10.6% | 10.6% | ||
| Kyle Lohse | Brewers | 16.8% | 5.2% | Home | 19.1% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 1.9% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 14.1% | 5.3% | Road | 12.6% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 8.5% | 3.4% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 26.5% | 4.1% | Road | 25.8% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 0.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 22.5% | 4.0% | Home | 16.7% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 2.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 16.9% | 5.4% | Home | 16.4% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 15.4% | 7.7% | Road | 21.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 20.8% | 9.4% | Road | 18.2% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 22.8% | 5.3% |
| Tim Hudson | Giants | 14.8% | 5.3% | Home | 16.4% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 5.9% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 17.6% | 9.2% | Home | 19.6% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 5.4% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 22.2% | 9.7% | Road | 23.0% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 18.8% |
| Trevor May | Twins | 20.8% | 7.1% | Road | 27.7% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 6.1% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 24.7% | 9.1% | Home | 26.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 10.9% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 18.9% | 5.5% | Home | 18.1% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 6.5% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 20.0% | 11.7% | Road | 16.9% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 12.3% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 18.3% | 7.3% | Home | 18.3% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 5.8% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | Home | 20.6% | 6.3% | RH | 22.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 18.2% | 6.4% |
| Reds | Road | 19.6% | 8.0% | RH | 18.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.0% | 5.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.8% | 8.7% | RH | 19.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 17.3% | 7.9% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.8% | 6.9% | LH | 25.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 22.6% | 8.4% |
| Astros | Home | 25.6% | 9.5% | RH | 25.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 23.8% | 9.5% |
| Rockies | Road | 25.1% | 5.1% | LH | 25.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 27.3% | 4.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 23.0% | 6.8% | RH | 22.0% | 6.1% | L7Days | 24.5% | 4.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.6% | 8.4% | RH | 20.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.9% | 6.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 18.9% | 5.6% | LH | 22.3% | 5.5% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.7% |
| Rays | Home | 22.5% | 7.4% | LH | 22.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.2% |
| Indians | Road | 16.7% | 8.4% | RH | 18.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.3% | 6.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.6% | 7.1% | RH | 20.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.4% |
| Padres | Home | 23.5% | 6.1% | RH | 22.0% | 6.5% | L7Days | 24.7% | 7.6% |
| Twins | Road | 22.1% | 7.1% | RH | 21.1% | 6.4% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.3% | 7.7% | RH | 19.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 24.3% | 5.0% |
| Royals | Road | 17.4% | 5.3% | RH | 16.8% | 5.5% | L7Days | 18.9% | 5.6% |
| Mets | Home | 19.3% | 8.7% | LH | 23.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.2% | 6.9% | RH | 20.5% | 6.0% | L7Days | 16.7% | 6.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.2% | 7.4% | RH | 19.6% | 8.3% | L7Days | 16.6% | 7.1% |
| Braves | Road | 18.1% | 7.4% | RH | 16.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 16.2% | 8.4% |
| Angels | Home | 20.1% | 7.3% | LH | 20.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.9% | 5.0% |
| Giants | Home | 16.6% | 7.7% | RH | 16.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 12.0% | 6.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 21.2% | 7.6% | RH | 23.1% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.1% | 9.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.8% | 8.1% | RH | 19.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.8% | 9.4% | RH | 25.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.3% | 9.0% | RH | 19.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.5% | 8.0% | RH | 17.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.9% | 8.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 19.5% | 5.6% | LH | 18.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 15.4% | 5.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.3% | 8.4% | RH | 16.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 19.9% | 10.5% | RH | 19.9% | 9.9% | L7Days | 17.8% | 10.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 21.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | Road | 22.6% | 8.0% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 21.1% | 15.8% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 20.4% | 7.2% | 10.0% | Home | 20.9% | 7.5% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Carlos Frias | Dodgers | 19.2% | 10.6% | 6.1% | Road | 20.8% | 16.7% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 25.7% | 2.8% | 5.6% | Road | 21.7% | 5.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 22.6% | 9.0% | 5.4% | Road | 18.5% | 0.0% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 19.4% | 12.1% | 9.4% | Home | 17.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 19.2% | 9.8% | 5.1% | Road | 19.3% | 13.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 20.4% | 12.7% | 7.0% | Home | 20.7% | 11.4% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 21.1% | 12.0% | 7.0% | Home | 18.9% | 15.9% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 21.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | Road | 18.5% | 10.0% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 22.7% | 9.0% | 12.1% | Home | 19.5% | 6.3% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | 20.4% | 9.2% | 12.1% | Home | 19.3% | 5.4% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 13.8% | 20.7% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | 24.4% | 6.8% | 8.7% | Road | 25.0% | 3.8% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 20.8% | 10.9% | 13.0% | Home | 23.9% | 5.4% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 14.3% | 4.8% |
| Jon Moscot | Reds | 13.5% | 11.8% | 17.6% | Road | L14 Days | 13.5% | 11.8% | 17.6% | |||
| Kyle Lohse | Brewers | 20.4% | 10.2% | 9.6% | Home | 21.9% | 14.0% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 21.8% | 8.4% | 10.9% | Road | 23.0% | 7.6% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 22.8% | 12.6% | 10.5% | Road | 22.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 20.8% | 8.8% | 14.7% | Home | 20.0% | 5.3% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 21.2% | 10.8% | 7.7% | Home | 19.2% | 12.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 25.6% | 9.8% | 6.6% | Road | 25.8% | 12.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 22.7% | 9.8% | 10.7% | Road | 25.5% | 12.7% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Tim Hudson | Giants | 20.9% | 10.2% | 7.3% | Home | 20.2% | 11.4% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 11.1% | 33.3% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 19.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | Home | 18.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 33.3% | 11.1% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 21.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | Road | 21.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Trevor May | Twins | 22.5% | 8.3% | 15.2% | Road | 23.0% | 12.5% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 19.3% | 9.9% | 6.6% | Home | 18.8% | 5.6% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 22.0% | 11.4% | 9.8% | Home | 22.7% | 12.1% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 7.1% | 21.4% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 24.0% | 8.3% | 0.0% | Road | 22.9% | 10.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 19.5% | 11.0% | 5.7% | Home | 19.7% | 13.4% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | Home | 22.6% | 14.1% | 8.0% | RH | 21.4% | 12.9% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.7% | 14.8% | 7.4% |
| Reds | Road | 20.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | RH | 20.9% | 12.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 18.5% | 15.8% | 5.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.9% | 11.7% | 8.7% | RH | 17.7% | 11.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 15.9% | 9.5% | 4.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.8% | 11.6% | 5.1% | LH | 25.0% | 12.0% | 5.3% | L7Days | 22.7% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Astros | Home | 18.5% | 18.9% | 11.0% | RH | 21.9% | 15.3% | 12.4% | L7Days | 22.7% | 14.0% | 8.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.3% | 13.9% | 8.2% | LH | 24.4% | 6.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.5% | 11.7% | 6.7% |
| Brewers | Home | 19.5% | 11.3% | 8.6% | RH | 20.5% | 10.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.1% | 16.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.6% | 13.3% | 7.7% | RH | 20.9% | 13.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 16.3% | 6.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.7% | 7.7% | 11.9% | LH | 21.3% | 8.1% | 10.8% | L7Days | 21.3% | 18.9% | 10.8% |
| Rays | Home | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.0% | LH | 22.0% | 11.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 16.9% | 4.8% | 9.5% |
| Indians | Road | 20.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | RH | 21.0% | 10.5% | 12.4% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.6% | 10.4% | 9.3% | RH | 21.2% | 11.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.0% | 11.6% |
| Padres | Home | 19.4% | 10.9% | 7.0% | RH | 19.6% | 10.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% |
| Twins | Road | 19.2% | 6.9% | 12.8% | RH | 20.4% | 8.4% | 12.7% | L7Days | 15.7% | 6.5% | 9.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | RH | 22.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 26.2% | 12.2% | 9.8% |
| Royals | Road | 24.1% | 9.5% | 9.9% | RH | 22.3% | 8.2% | 10.0% | L7Days | 17.0% | 11.6% | 9.3% |
| Mets | Home | 21.7% | 10.8% | 12.7% | LH | 21.6% | 16.5% | 11.3% | L7Days | 22.4% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.1% | 8.9% | 9.7% | RH | 21.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 19.7% | 17.9% | 3.6% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.9% | 10.7% | 13.7% | RH | 19.1% | 13.2% | 13.6% | L7Days | 21.8% | 14.5% | 15.9% |
| Braves | Road | 22.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | RH | 23.0% | 8.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.0% | 12.3% |
| Angels | Home | 22.5% | 12.0% | 10.7% | LH | 20.1% | 12.0% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.2% | 11.8% | 7.8% |
| Giants | Home | 19.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | RH | 21.9% | 10.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.0% | 15.4% | 2.6% |
| Mariners | Road | 17.2% | 11.4% | 7.6% | RH | 19.8% | 10.5% | 6.6% | L7Days | 15.1% | 5.2% | 8.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.8% | 10.4% | 8.9% | RH | 21.7% | 13.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 27.5% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 22.8% | 10.1% | 11.3% | RH | 20.5% | 12.3% | 11.1% | L7Days | 24.1% | 11.1% | 3.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | RH | 22.9% | 8.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.3% | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.5% | 10.5% | 9.0% | RH | 21.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.5% | 4.3% | 10.5% | LH | 23.2% | 7.2% | 9.9% | L7Days | 25.1% | 0.0% | 19.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.3% | 11.7% | 10.3% | RH | 20.3% | 10.3% | 12.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.8% | 15.7% | 7.7% | RH | 21.5% | 16.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.0% | 13.0% | 7.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.10 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 17.6% | 8.0% | 2.20 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.19 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 22.0% | 9.8% | 2.24 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.35 |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 13.2% | 9.8% | 1.35 | 8.9% | 9.5% | 0.94 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 22.0% | 9.2% | 2.39 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 2.49 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 20.8% | 10.6% | 1.96 | 22.6% | 11.2% | 2.02 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 19.8% | 9.0% | 2.20 | 20.6% | 9.6% | 2.15 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 19.7% | 10.7% | 1.84 | 20.9% | 11.0% | 1.90 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 20.0% | 13.3% | 1.50 | 20.9% | 14.2% | 1.47 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 29.0% | 14.0% | 2.07 | 31.1% | 14.5% | 2.14 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 21.8% | 8.7% | 2.51 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 2.25 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 27.0% | 10.1% | 2.67 | 27.1% | 11.4% | 2.38 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 11.8% | 8.3% | 1.42 | 12.1% | 8.3% | 1.46 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 15.1% | 7.0% | 2.16 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 2.45 |
| John Lackey | STL | 17.8% | 9.2% | 1.93 | 20.9% | 9.1% | 2.30 |
| Jon Moscot | CIN | 10.6% | 4.5% | 2.36 | 10.6% | 4.5% | 2.36 |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 17.6% | 9.2% | 1.91 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.05 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 10.6% | 5.0% | 2.12 | 11.1% | 5.3% | 2.09 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 28.3% | 11.1% | 2.55 | 31.3% | 12.7% | 2.46 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 22.5% | 8.1% | 2.78 | 22.4% | 8.4% | 2.67 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 18.8% | 8.9% | 2.11 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 1.87 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 18.1% | 7.6% | 2.38 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.11 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 20.8% | 9.0% | 2.31 | 20.8% | 8.7% | 2.39 |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 11.9% | 8.0% | 1.49 | 11.4% | 6.4% | 1.78 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 17.2% | 6.8% | 2.53 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.31 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 24.3% | 9.8% | 2.48 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.72 |
| Trevor May | MIN | 20.9% | 9.6% | 2.18 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 2.78 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 24.9% | 13.2% | 1.89 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 1.58 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 20.7% | 8.6% | 2.41 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 2.47 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 20.0% | 5.6% | 3.57 | 20.5% | 5.6% | 3.66 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 18.4% | 6.3% | 2.92 | 21.6% | 6.0% | 3.60 |
Carlos Frias – Maybe he has a bit more upside than I gave him credit for above. He had a 4.4 SwStr% in a start on 5/24 where he was pounded by the Padres for 10 runs. He’s had at least an 8.6 SwStr% in each of his other seven starts this year and double digits in five.
Erasmo Ramirez would have a top 10 SwStr% if he qualified with enough innings, but just an average K%. He’s had at least an 8.4 SwStr% in every start, a double digit SwStr% in six of eight starts, and at least a 15.4 SwStr% in each of his last three starts.
Noah Syndergaard – It was mentioned above that he’s had his two highest SwStr rates over his last two starts, in which he’s been bombed.
Tim Hudson – The league average SwStr% that intrigued over the first couple of months has fallen over the last 30 days, but still supports a K% higher than it currently is and closer to his career rate of 16.1%.
Trevor May now has a perfectly average SwStr%. In fact, he’s seen it drop a bit, while his K% has risen over the last month, but all that has done is bring him back into an overall acceptable range.
Tyson Ross – As you can see, his K% over the last month comes nowhere close to doing his SwStr% justice over the same period. He’s had a double digit SwStr rate in all, but two of his 13 starts and never lower than 8.4% this year.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.88 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.88 xFIP – 3.88 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 3.04 | 4.37 | 1.33 | 4.49 | 1.45 | 3.8 | 0.76 | 4.85 | 4.75 | -0.1 | 5.06 | 0.21 | 5.56 | 0.71 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 5.16 | 3.77 | -1.39 | 3.84 | -1.32 | 4.26 | -0.9 | 5.81 | 3.89 | -1.92 | 3.91 | -1.9 | 5.26 | -0.55 |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 3.86 | 3.93 | 0.07 | 3.82 | -0.04 | 3.67 | -0.19 | 4.45 | 4.54 | 0.09 | 4.22 | -0.23 | 4.16 | -0.29 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 2.66 | 4.41 | 1.75 | 4.22 | 1.56 | 3.3 | 0.64 | 2.54 | 4.34 | 1.8 | 4.06 | 1.52 | 3.38 | 0.84 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 3.05 | 3.66 | 0.61 | 3.53 | 0.48 | 2.32 | -0.73 | 2.43 | 3.31 | 0.88 | 3.2 | 0.77 | 2.02 | -0.41 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.9 | 2.98 | 1.08 | 2.95 | 1.05 | 2.89 | 0.99 | 2.51 | 2.64 | 0.13 | 2.62 | 0.11 | 3.01 | 0.5 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 3.07 | 4.08 | 1.01 | 4.01 | 0.94 | 3.4 | 0.33 | 2.9 | 3.83 | 0.93 | 3.83 | 0.93 | 3.36 | 0.46 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 4.96 | 3.8 | -1.16 | 4 | -0.96 | 3.84 | -1.12 | 3.49 | 3.85 | 0.36 | 4.08 | 0.59 | 3.81 | 0.32 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 3.25 | 2.92 | -0.33 | 2.76 | -0.49 | 3.12 | -0.13 | 3.72 | 2.12 | -1.6 | 2.15 | -1.57 | 2.72 | -1 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 4.42 | 3.53 | -0.89 | 3.33 | -1.09 | 3.07 | -1.35 | 4.66 | 3.86 | -0.8 | 3.59 | -1.07 | 3.62 | -1.04 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.16 | 2.71 | -0.45 | 2.61 | -0.55 | 2.79 | -0.37 | 3.38 | 2.54 | -0.84 | 2.48 | -0.9 | 3.51 | 0.13 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 4.61 | 4.75 | 0.14 | 4.71 | 0.1 | 4.83 | 0.22 | 4.2 | 4.87 | 0.67 | 4.85 | 0.65 | 4.7 | 0.5 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 3.84 | 3.85 | 0.01 | 3.8 | -0.04 | 3.36 | -0.48 | 3.08 | 3.78 | 0.7 | 3.77 | 0.69 | 3.5 | 0.42 |
| John Lackey | STL | 3.74 | 3.99 | 0.25 | 3.94 | 0.2 | 3.42 | -0.32 | 4.5 | 3.43 | -1.07 | 3.43 | -1.07 | 3.44 | -1.06 |
| Jon Moscot | CIN | 4.91 | 5.71 | 0.8 | 5.72 | 0.81 | 5.92 | 1.01 | 4.91 | 5.71 | 0.8 | 5.72 | 0.81 | 5.92 | 1.01 |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 6.27 | 4.04 | -2.23 | 4.03 | -2.24 | 4.91 | -1.36 | 5.4 | 3.91 | -1.49 | 3.76 | -1.64 | 4.02 | -1.38 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 4.25 | 4.71 | 0.46 | 4.43 | 0.18 | 4.69 | 0.44 | 2.97 | 4.67 | 1.7 | 4.52 | 1.55 | 4.5 | 1.53 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 2.48 | 2.8 | 0.32 | 2.92 | 0.44 | 2.61 | 0.13 | 1.29 | 1.87 | 0.58 | 2.06 | 0.77 | 1.89 | 0.6 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 4.15 | 3.19 | -0.96 | 3.21 | -0.94 | 2.96 | -1.19 | 3.99 | 2.87 | -1.12 | 2.89 | -1.1 | 2.49 | -1.5 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.26 | 3.9 | -1.36 | 3.95 | -1.31 | 4.24 | -1.02 | 6.32 | 4.09 | -2.23 | 4.16 | -2.16 | 4.54 | -1.78 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 1.53 | 4.19 | 2.66 | 4.08 | 2.55 | 3.39 | 1.86 | 1.54 | 4.89 | 3.35 | 4.72 | 3.18 | 4.39 | 2.85 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 5.4 | 4.11 | -1.29 | 4.23 | -1.17 | 4.55 | -0.85 | 3.45 | 4.04 | 0.59 | 4.09 | 0.64 | 4.09 | 0.64 |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 4.6 | 4.12 | -0.48 | 4.05 | -0.55 | 4.61 | 0.01 | 4.66 | 4.09 | -0.57 | 4.28 | -0.38 | 3.62 | -1.04 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.13 | 4.51 | 0.38 | 4.46 | 0.33 | 4.67 | 0.54 | 3.55 | 4.36 | 0.81 | 4.32 | 0.77 | 4.1 | 0.55 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 3.53 | 4.01 | 0.48 | 4.18 | 0.65 | 3.72 | 0.19 | 3.34 | 4.22 | 0.88 | 4.44 | 1.1 | 4.18 | 0.84 |
| Trevor May | MIN | 4.16 | 3.57 | -0.59 | 3.6 | -0.56 | 2.8 | -1.36 | 3.03 | 3.02 | -0.01 | 3.12 | 0.09 | 2.46 | -0.57 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 3.81 | 3.38 | -0.43 | 3.18 | -0.63 | 3.01 | -0.8 | 3.6 | 3.16 | -0.44 | 3.08 | -0.52 | 2.47 | -1.13 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 3.21 | 3.85 | 0.64 | 4.07 | 0.86 | 4.23 | 1.02 | 3.86 | 3.37 | -0.49 | 3.44 | -0.42 | 3.8 | -0.06 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 2.7 | 4.25 | 1.55 | 4.08 | 1.38 | 3.85 | 1.15 | 1.74 | 3.98 | 2.24 | 3.85 | 2.11 | 3.23 | 1.49 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 3.45 | 3.76 | 0.31 | 3.66 | 0.21 | 3.62 | 0.17 | 2.7 | 3.06 | 0.36 | 2.98 | 0.28 | 2.87 | 0.17 |
Anibal Sanchez – We already mentioned the 13.5 HR/FB that’s well above his 8.5% career average, but his 37.6% fly ball rate is also the first time he’s been below 44% since 2009, making it even worse. This has no doubt played a hand in his 66.1 LOB%. His pitch mix doesn’t look that much different via Brooks Baseball, though Pitchf/x has his change-up as more of a splitter this year, which seems a minor difference.
Carlos Rodon has an ERA well below his indicators due to a miniscule 2.8 HR/FB, which won’t last in Chicago, but might better keep in Pittsburgh at least for tonight. Also at issue would be his 79.9 LOB%.
Dallas Keuchel has a .235 BABIP and 81.8 LOB%. The indicators in the BABIP chart don’t forecast anything abnormal, but with a 20.4 LD% and 4.02 GB/FB in addition to the excessive amount of weak contact he generates makes you wonder if he might be able to suppress his BABIP a little more than expected, especially with a defense that shifts so often. I don’t expect his true talent is below .250, but maybe he doesn’t have far to go and can keep his ERA well below three. If he can continue generating near a 20% strikeout rate, he might be an Ace and somebody no team wants to face for a long time.
Erasmo Ramirez – In addition to potentially accumulating more strikeouts, due to an elite SwStr rate, he has a good chance to see his ERA improve further with an expected adjustment to his 62.7 LOB%. Neither his BABIP nor HR/FB are out of range, so this simply looks like a sequencing issue, which we’ve already seen improve some. He’s already seen a good chunk of adjustment, with it being above 70% in five of his last six starts, in which he’s allowed more than three ERs just once.
Gio Gonzalez had a career best 16.2 K-BB% last season, in part due to having a league average BB% for the first time. This year, that’s regressed a bit towards his career rate at 9.1% as the strikeouts have decreased, supported by a below average SwStr%. He’s been able to keep his HR/FB below average throughout his career and is doing it again this season (7.3%), but has been plagued by a .359 BABIP. He’s never crossed the .300 mark in any season with more than 100 innings pitched previously. He only has one IFFB this season and a solid Z-Contact%, but has also seen a massive increase in his GB%, doubling his career GB/FB to 2.8 this year. His 23.0 Hard% is actually lower than a 23.9 LD%. While the signs and indicators aren’t overwhelmingly positive, they do point to reduction. Also at issue though, would be some atrocious defense behind him.
Kyle Lohse – Adjustments to his 16.3 HR/FB and 64 LOB%, pulling them within an acceptable range would help his ERA a lot, but still might leave him a below average pitcher and you might not be able to count on a full adjustment to his HR rate in such a tough park.
Noah Syndergaard – With that enormous BABIP we mentioned over his last two starts, 20 of 34 batted balls have been on the ground. If anything, the increase in the SwStr department is more encouraging than this is discouraging for future starts.
Rick Porcello has a bit of a HR problem (12.8 HR/FB), but does have an 11.4 career HR/FB. The bigger issue is that he may be sacrificing GBs for SwStrs and while the result is he’s gotten a few more, it’s still below average and the career high 36.6 fly ball rate and 31.0 Hard% is hurting him more. This has also led to a 65.8 LOB% that should improve. Believe it or not, Boston suppresses HRs more than Detroit, so that rate should go down, but might not lead to an overall reduction in HRs. The Red Sox certainly didn’t give $80 million to a guy with an expected ERA around four either though.
Trevor May now has a league average K rate factored into his estimators, but still has a BABIP issue hovering over him that we’ve discussed every time he’s been on the mound over the last month. His 22.1 LD% is nothing special, but his other indicators in the BABIP chart below are just fantastic. He has just a 1.08 GB/FB, but generates a lot of pop ups. I continue to see no reason why his BABIP should be well above .300, just from the numbers presented.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 0.306 | 0.249 | -0.057 | 14.8% | 87.7% |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.283 | 0.291 | 0.008 | 11.5% | 84.7% |
| Carlos Frias | LOS | 0.296 | 0.341 | 0.045 | 9.1% | 91.6% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.322 | 0.328 | 0.006 | 5.6% | 89.3% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.305 | 0.298 | -0.007 | 6.1% | 94.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.282 | 0.235 | -0.047 | 9.8% | 89.4% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.267 | 0.252 | -0.015 | 0.0% | 84.2% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.278 | 0.286 | 0.008 | 9.3% | 79.9% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.298 | 0.242 | -0.056 | 10.9% | 83.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.321 | 0.359 | 0.038 | 2.4% | 86.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.296 | 0.320 | 0.024 | 10.9% | 87.7% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.272 | 0.273 | 0.001 | 14.6% | 85.0% |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 0.285 | 0.285 | 0 | 6.0% | 92.4% |
| John Lackey | STL | 0.293 | 0.303 | 0.01 | 13.3% | 89.0% |
| Jon Moscot | CIN | 0.282 | 0.229 | -0.053 | 17.6% | 93.0% |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | 0.304 | 0.316 | 0.012 | 9.8% | 89.6% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 0.279 | 0.289 | 0.01 | 9.1% | 92.5% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.302 | 0.213 | -0.089 | 11.1% | 86.7% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.295 | 0.358 | 0.063 | 14.7% | 89.4% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.298 | 0.307 | 0.009 | 3.5% | 86.6% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.298 | 0.269 | -0.029 | 5.6% | 89.2% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.286 | 0.319 | 0.033 | 9.0% | 84.8% |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 0.286 | 0.298 | 0.012 | 9.3% | 89.4% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.295 | 0.280 | -0.015 | 9.8% | 88.4% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.318 | 0.266 | -0.052 | 12.4% | 88.4% |
| Trevor May | MIN | 0.298 | 0.335 | 0.037 | 12.3% | 84.1% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 0.310 | 0.367 | 0.057 | 2.7% | 83.5% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 0.286 | 0.277 | -0.009 | 8.5% | 86.7% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 0.294 | 0.305 | 0.011 | 0.0% | 90.7% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 0.288 | 0.276 | -0.012 | 7.5% | 89.7% |
Carlos Frias doesn’t have anything in his profile that might indicate good BABIP skills, but neither anything that would suggest one well worse than normal. With a high ground ball rate and fairly average LD%, this looks like a case of too many ground balls getting through.
Francisco Liriano pitches in front of a defense that shifts a lot and has a 2.13 GB/FB. That really hasn’t helped their overall team BABIP allowed much, but possibly has in his case as a 27.0 Soft% means many of those are weakly hit ground balls. In addition, he has a solid IFFB% and great Z-Contact%. All the ingredients are there for some sustainability here, even if we expect a small adjustment.
Masahiro Tanaka obviously won’t sustain a .213 BABIP, but does have just a 16.5 LD%, supporting a currently lower mark. He generates pop ups and contact in the zone at acceptable rates, but not spectacularly.
Tyson Ross throws his slider 46.8% of the time. No other pitcher is higher than 40% this year. That pitch has led to 24% whiffs and 63% GBs, nearly as much as his sinker (70%). His overall 62.3 GB% is 3rd best in the majors. We’ve also already covered that a lot of that is weak contact, so where is the .367 BABIP coming from. That’s a rhetorical question because I can’t answer it. He doesn’t generate a lot of pop ups, in fact just one on the year with all the ground balls, but he generates a great Z-Contact% and has a very reasonable 19.8 LD%. It hasn’t hurt his 74.0 LOB% though, which is likely why his ERA isn’t completely out of range with his ERA estimators.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Carlos Frias suffers a setback in park and the adjustment to the matchup that comes with it, but still generates a ton of ground balls and has some upside in his SwStr rate at a very low price. He’s been a great dumpster diving option for us for most of the season and continues to be so. Adequacy gets you major value here and he’s even gone at least six innings in five of his last six starts. He’s been at least adequate in seven of eight starts this year. Without a really elitely priced pitcher tonight, use him to mega-stack all the top offensive players.
Carlos Rodon is sort of the cutoff for me today. He’s inexpensive in one of the better spots he’s been in this season in a great park against an offense that hasn’t impressed overall. He’s control has been better, but his stuff hasn’t consistently impressed as advertised though.
Dallas Keuchel – Now you’re paying for him, but he’s not just a ground ball pitcher. He’s a massively extreme weak ground ball pitcher with a league average strikeout rate facing a bad road offense that has been terrible vs LHP. He’s in my top three overall and a solid value that can be used in all formats.
Francisco Liriano is one of the top four in price today and also has a great matchup with more strikeout potential than Keuchel in a better park against an even worse offense vs LHP. The blowup potential makes him slightly more risky, but everything else makes him my #2 overall pitcher tonight (although he and Keuchel are close). Really, you can go with either or both as great options tonight depending on site and price. I have them as very close overall, but with a wider range of potential outcomes on Liriano.
Gio Gonzalez – I have him in Rodon territory in potential value beyond his price tag tonight, albeit at a much larger cost. He’s been likely been better than his ERA dictates and does gain in park adjustment tonight against a team that has been a little more susceptible to LHP lately. I’d probably still use some RH Rays batters against him though at the right price.
Jake Arrieta has the toughest matchup of the top four with potentially the worst park effect (depending on weather I guess), but still has enough upside to rank as my #4 pitcher overall pitcher tonight with a decent size gap to the next group. He’s not my top pick tonight, but has had a consistent floor, faces Cleveland without a DH tonight, and I’d be fine with using him in all formats.
John Lackey is the first mid-range price tag we come to and he got blasted in his last start. That might scare some people off, but Colorado is vastly different from St Louis and the Twins are a terrible road offense. If you can’t pair two top pitchers together tonight, he’s a fine option.
Masahiro Tanaka doesn’t need a fully functioning Tommy John to generate lots of strikeouts and pitch well. The park and league adjustment makes him my top overall guy tonight. He gets out of the AL East and even loses the DH tonight in a park that plays neutral overall, but way down for power. I still think Keuchel may be the safest pick tonight, but he definitely has a ton of upside here and rates as a top value despite the top price tag.
Noah Syndergaard has been a victim of BABIP over his last two starts, but has seen improvement in his SwStr%. As mentioned this is actually an encouraging development. He does carry a significant amount of risk against a top offense tonight, but that adjusts down with the park and may adjust even better depending on what they do with the lineup tonight. In addition, I think a lot of people who are not looking underneath the hood may be soured off him tonight. I probably wouldn’t trust him in double ups/cash games, but think he’s a GPP option with potential, although his price tag on one of the big two does not give us as much wiggle room as elsewhere unfortunately.
Tim Hudson showed you what can happen when one of these low floor, high ground ball guys goes sour. As often the case in a lot of his bad starts though, he still generates a lot of ground balls. I’ll still continue to write him up in good spots though, especially at home, and this qualifies. The reason being the consistently low price tag. You don’t need more than a couple of strikeouts for him to generate excess value. You may not need him with lower price tags around the league tonight, but he’s there throwing his ground balls just in case.
Trevor May – As I mentioned way above, as long as the DFS sites continue to give me motivation in his price tag, I’ll continue to tout him. His cost significantly under-rates his overall talent level beneath ERA and inflated BABIP. He’s not a decent pitcher and this is a better matchup than advertised with the current state of the St Louis lineup.
Tyson Ross – I mentioned the gap between the top four overall and the next group. Well, this is the guy that stand a little ahead of that next group and narrows that gap a little bit. He’s in a good spot tonight, though Oakland’s ability to make contact might hurt his upside a little bit. He’s been consistent and is priced similarly to Gio Gonzalez tonight and is a guy I might trust a little bit more.
Wei-Yin Chen has been pitching well and gets the Philly bump. He’s not my top guy or top value, but that’s enough for consideration tonight, even in a tough park.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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