Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, May 27th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2016-05-28 02:42:35

Things appear to be back to a more normal pace with the lack of high quality pitchers on the night slates the last two days and just a few pitchers cracking even $9K. We have five today who reach that mark on both major sites, but we’ll find that nearly all of them have major flaws and/or obstacles to overcome because we’re obsessive and nitty that way. With Thursday night ending early, let’s get to a whole lot of words for Friday.

Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.

Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.

Adam Conley faces both the worst offense at home and vs LHP for today. He’s the snap chalk, right? Well, maybe not. He’s been incredibly inconsistent. He hasn’t allowed a run in three of his nine starts and just one run in another. He has 27 strikeouts and seven walks in those starts, walking four in his no-hit attempt in Milwaukee. In those other games five starts, he has allowed at least three runs each time with four or more four times, striking out more than he’s walked just twice. The caveat is that three of his five bad starts came against Washington. Maybe it’s just one team that has his number and that’s probably what’s keeping him in play for me here. He walked seven Nationals in his last start and it was the 2nd time in six starts he’s done that. The Braves have a 17.2 K% with a 7.2 HR/FB vs LHP and an even worse 4.4 HR/FB at home.

Chris Archer at home this year: 23 IP – 98 BF – 2.35 ERA – 22.5 K-BB% – 11.8 HR/FB. On the road: 29.1 IP – 140 BF – 7.36 ERA – 12.1 K-BB% – 27.6 HR/FB. I don’t mean to suggest his problems are non-existent at home. He still has a double digit walk rate and has allowed harder contact at the Trop (41.1 Hard%) than on the road (34.1 Hard%). He just might be better equipped to deal with it. Since last season, he has a 33.0 K% and 2.54 xFIP at home. The Yankees have been an awful road offense and that makes sense considering their alignment and home park. Consider that they have a 26.1 Hard% on the road and 23.8 Hard% vs RHP, but their HR rate vs RHP overall is much higher (14.1 HR/FB) vs just on the road (9.3 HR/FB) because a lot of those opportunities vs RHP with that short RF porch. This is an offense that just doesn’t hit the ball very hard and has difficulty generating offense outside of Yankee Stadium.

Danny Duffy has gone three and 4.1 innings in his two starts, working his way up to what should be about five or six tonight. The thing is, he hasn’t allowed a run and has struck out eight of 29 batters faced. It’s not a lot to go on and we can’t buy into his season strikeout rate out of the bullpen, but he was a highly regarded prospect at one time. He’s a fly ball pitcher who can do well at home in a neutral matchup and would be well worth his price if he could even generate something close to a league average K% here.

Felix Hernandez is a very strange case. His stuff has clearly declined to the point where his strikeout and swinging strike rates are now below average. He recently had a stretch of five starts with just 17 total strikeouts and has struck out more than five just once in his last seven starts. Walks? Yeah, those are a problem too (10.2%). However, he has only allowed more than three runs once and has gone at least seven innings five times. His 1.98 GB/FB this year is also his career rate and his 4.3 Hard-Soft% is the 2nd best mark of his career. Even with all of that great contact stuff going on, it’s a little sketchy until you add the Twins to the mix. They have a 27.3 K% on the road, 23.3% vs RHP. If they can bump him back up to an average K% with lots of weak ground balls, we’re back in business here. Safeco is one of the worst run environments in baseball that makes a good matchup nearly great.

Jacob deGrom is still remains at reduced velocity, but tied his best mark of the season, averaging 93.5 mph last time out, still lower than last year though. He struck out a season high seven of 23 Brewers, but allowed four runs in just five innings. He’s still throwing five different pitches 7% of the time or more, which may allow him to keep generating an 11.7 SwStr%, but he just can’t seem to finish batters off as often. It was just the Brewers in his last start, but the opposing offense doesn’t make you throw harder. Tonight, it’s just the Dodgers, who haven’t been much better than the Brewers in one of the most pitcher friendly run environments in baseball.

Julio Urias is the 19 year old top pitching prospect for the Dodgers and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, blowing through the minors in just a few seasons with a well above average K% and good control with an ability to keep the ball in the park at every level. The Dodgers are unsurprisingly being very cautious with him. He’s only twice been allowed to face more than 19 batters in a game with a high of 22. The Mets continue to hit for power (28.6 HR/FB last seven days, 14.4 HR/FB vs LHP), but have a 27.6 K% vs LHP.

Masahiro Tanaka has been generating fewer ground balls over his last three starts, going from one of the top rates in the majors at 59%, down to a 55.4% mark just outside the top 10. His strikeout rate has dipped below average over the last month, but his SwStr% remains strong and he’s gone at least seven innings in five of his last seven starts. The road has been a bit kinder to his HR rate, where he’s generated an average 10.5 HR/FB since last season. The Rays have a 26.3 K% vs RHP this season, but have been able to hit for power (15.4 HR/FB vs RHP) even at home (13.7 HR/FB).

Matt Shoemaker struck out 12 of 26 Orioles in his last start, representing more than 1/3 of his season total. He struck out five of 23 in the preceding start and has pushed his strikeout rate near average for the season and has allowed just one HR over his last three starts. HR issues have plagued him in a power suppressing home park (14.5 HR/FB), but he also has a 24.2 K% at home since last season, much higher than his road mark over the same span. Houston has been an average offense, who have been struggling recently, striking out 29.2% over the last week and 25.5% against RHP this season. They remain a tremendous amount of power on the road (16.9 HR/FB), vs RHP (16.1 HR/FB) and even during their slumber (39.9 Hard%, 20.0 HR/FB).

Max Scherzer has allowed exactly two runs in each of his last three starts after his worst start of the season, in which he allowed four HRs at Wrigley. The long ball is still an issue over this period (five HRs) and he’s now up to a league leading 14 on the season, but if he’s striking out nearly half the batters he faces (43.7% over his last three starts), who cares? He’s obviously not going to continue upon his path at that high of a rate and finds himself in a very difficult spot against a Cardinals offense that normally dominates RHP with more power than expected (15.1 HR/FB on the road, 15.3 HR/FB vs RHP). He gets a bit of a bump with St Louis missing their best hitter vs RHP in this series, though there are plenty of other capable bats.

Michael Fulmer dominated Tampa Bay in his first home start last time out, striking out 11 of 25 batters for 33% of his season total, but has had at least a league average SwStr% in four of his five starts with his current 28 K% still slightly trailing his AAA mark this year. He went beyond five innings for the first time in his last start and jumped straight to seven, exceeding 100 pitches for the first time, though he’s thrown at least 92 in every start. Perhaps Detroit is loosening the reigns, but it probably also depends on his efficiency. He’s on the road again tonight, but in a great park against a below average offense that has struggled even more since losing Reddick. They don’t strike out a lot, but don’t walk or hit the ball hard particularly often either.

Mike Fiers may be coming off his best start (7 IP – 2 ER – 0 BB – 6 K vs Texas) and has now allowed two ERs or less in seven innings in three of his last five, although he still hasn’t struck out more than six this season. He’s unlikely to reach that mark in Anaheim against an offense with a 15.5 K% vs RHP, but they haven’t been able to do much when they make contact. I want to say this is a favorable park for a fly ball pitcher, but he doesn’t appear to be that anymore (1.81 GB/FB in 2016, 0.93 career). He still allows a lot of hard contact (37.6 Hard% in 2016, 32.1 Hard% career), but not it’s more on the ground than in the air making his 21.4 HR/FB not as damaging as when you’re ground ball rate spikes like that. Perhaps we should also mention his 30.6 LD%, so it’s more that his fly ball rate has nearly halved and will probably gain a few points back as his LD rate hopefully drops. It’s been at least 30% in six of eight starts though.

Robbie Ray has continued to allow a lot of hard contact (35.7 Hard%) and it’s finally caught up with him in a 27.0 LD%, .343 BABIP, and 15.0 HR/FB in a tough park this year. His GB/FB is up to 1.5 from 1.25, but his GB% is still the same. The LD rate increase has all come from his fly balls and an 11.0 BB% has compounded his issues. He has continued to miss bats at a league average rate though. The Padres aren’t as bad against LHP, but still aren’t good. They have a 13.3 HR/FB on the road and 15.4 HR/FB vs LHP that could do some damage here, but a 25.8 K% and 26.5 K% in those spots respectively keep them a favorable matchup even in a very positive run environment.

Zachary Davies has allowed three of his five HRs over his last two starts, but has also struck out 11 of 44 batters with just two walks. His SwStr% has remained poor, only extending above 6.5% in three of seven starts with a 41.0 Hard%. However, he faces the Reds who are the worst road offense (17.3 K-BB%, 5.7 HR/FB) and 2nd worst vs RHP (17.3 K-BB%), along with having the lowest wRC+ over the last seven days (22.2 K-BB%, 7.0 HR/FB). They give the Braves a run for top matchup tonight, even in one of the more hitter friendly parks in baseball.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)

Tyler Chatwood (.272 BABIP – 81.2 LOB% – 13.0 HR/FB) is here merely because I’m lacking names in this section today, but he was always going to be a no go at home. The San Francisco offense has performed well below expectations this season, but still potentially result in the worst park adjusted matchup tonight, although the Pirates and Red Sox come close.

Williams Perez (.231 BABIP – 68.2 LOB% – 7.4 HR/FB) may be facing a Yelich and Stanton reduced lineup tonight. He has generated a surprising rate of weak (4.7 Hard-Soft%) ground balls (59.2%), so maybe there’s something I missed about him from a batted ball standpoint. His 3.7 K-BB% is still a disaster though.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Cole Hamels looks great from an overall standpoint, but sometimes he walks people, sometimes he strikes a bunch of them out, sometimes he allows a bunch of HRs then will go a month without allowing one. He’s struck out at least nine in three of his last four in which he hasn’t walked more than two after walking at least three in four of his first five with a high of eight strikeouts. He’s also allowed six of his 10 HRs over his last three starts. All that would mean less if he weren’t facing the 3rd best offense vs LHP at one of the highest costs on the board (5th on DK, 3rd on FD). The Pirates do have a 24.7 K% vs LHP, but also a 10.3 BB% that could drive up his pitch count and a 36.8 Hard% with a 15.5 HR/FB that can do a lot worse.

Trevor Bauer isn’t too expensive and can miss bats against an offense that has just tanked against RHP over the last week (32.8 K% last seven days), but he’s still an incredibly dangerous pitcher. He could strike out the side twice in a row and then go walk, walk, boom or anything in between. The upside is there for a big outing, but he’s going to be a disaster nearly as often.

John Lamb has lost some velocity and is not missing bats at nearly the rate he did last year. Still, his diminished SwStr% projects for a few more strikeouts and he is facing the Brewers, who strike out a lot at the 3rd lowest cost on FanDuel. That might put him right at my imaginary cutoff line should I need to dip that low and really like the offensive firepower it affords me.

Jaime Garcia had a narrative going that he was nearly elite at home and couldn’t pitch on the road. He certainly crapped all over that three starts back by dominating the Angels in LA (7 IP – 0 ER – 1 BB – 8 K). He’s further soiled it in two home outings since (7.1 IP – 8 ER – 5 BB – 3 K). He’s on the road again tonight, but faces a Washington offense that excels vs LHP. When a normally good pitcher with his injury history goes this bad, it makes you wonder. His GB% has remained above 55% in each of his last two starts, but the hard hit rates were his 2nd and 3rd worst of the season.

Jon Niese is coming off back to back strong starts at home and faces a lineup that leans left-handed, but not one that really has struggled against LHP in a hitter’s park.

Joe Kelly pitched his first major league game in a month and went into the 7th inning with a no hitter. He’s struck out 18 of 75 batters faced with an 11.5 SwStr% this year. I feel like we’ve seen this before as he struck out nearly 30% of the first 100 batters he faced last year before reverting back to form. Here are some other issues: 17.3 BB% and 37.2 Hard%. He hasn’t shown nearly enough in the strikeout department to earn any trust.

Aaron Sanchez rebounded very well, walking not a single batter, while striking out seven of 28 Twins following nine walks over his previous two starts. This is not about him at all, but entirely about not needing to attack the Red Sox with a moderately priced RHP on a small slate.

Pat Dean started his first major league game for the Twins after toiling around their minor league system since 2010. He adds two long relief stints, but there’s a reason guys remain in the minors that long and that would be a sub-15 K% at every stop along the way since low A ball in 2011. As you can see, his 19.7 K% does not fit his 5.4 SwStr% through 61 batters.

Miguel Gonzalez struck out eight of 25 Royals in a season high six innings in his last start. His 7.5 SwStr% was his lowest of the season, though he has only struck out 11 of 76 batters previously. None of that makes sense, but he’s never had a SwStr above 9% or below 8%, so why change now? His 9.9 BB% is a career high.

Matt Cain has been good over his last three starts and the Rockies haven’t been an insurmountable force at home this season. A $4.7K cost on DraftKings almost makes you think, but not very long.

Sean Manaea would appear to need more minor league time if the A’s could afford it, but they’re probably not going anywhere this year and he is nearly 25 years old. Detroit has surprisingly struggled with LHP, but he hasn’t shown much of anything since being called up.

Mike Wright

Christian Friedrich has walked nine and struck out six of the 46 batters he’s faced this season.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Jacob deGrom – It hasn’t been a consistent ride. His SwStr has been above 12% four times (above 14% three times) and in single digits the other three starts, however he’s only been below 8.7% once. I have a good feeling that even if he doesn’t regain all of his velocity, his strikeout rate should increase to at least league average anyway (though maybe not all the way back to his 25.5% career mark without the velocity).

Masahiro Tanaka has had his two lowest SwStr marks over his last three starts, but hasn’t dropped below 8.7%. His SwStr% suggest more strikeouts, but his 12.4% career mark has led to just a 1.92 K/SwStr, so maybe we’re not expecting to large a jump, but he should remain above average at least.

Matt Shoemaker has the highest SwStr% of his career, but that’s a bit misleading. He’s been above 12% in three of his last five starts and above 17% twice, while being below 8% in half of his eight starts. Even if he settles in at his career SwStr around 10%, his K% should end up a bit above average.

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Chris Archer has a .350 BABIP and 21.7 HR/FB, but if we address this from a home road situation, just two of his 10 HRs have come at home and he hasn’t even gotten a home start in a month (4/30). His home BABIP is .296, while his road BABIP is .386. If you want to get into some really strange stuff, his home LD% is actually double his road rate (32.1% vs 16.7%), though his 17.6 IFFB% is nearly triple his road 6.9% rate. I can’t get home and road Z-Contact% information. There’s some weirdness, but suffice to say almost all of his numbers are better at home.

Felix Hernandez has a .239 BABIP with a weakened profile below. He’s still generating weak ground balls, but even with that he has a career .293 BABIP that’s never been below .258. The defensive positioning of the Seattle defense gets some credit here, but not enough for him to be likely to maintain this mark. His LOB% isn’t too high or too far off his 75.3% career rate, but 79.7% is a career high. I’d find it difficult to call this version of the King better than a true talent three and a half ERA pitcher? There’s certainly some regression coming, it’s just a question of how much Safeco and his batted ball profile can save him.

Jacob deGrom doesn’t have anything off in his BABIP or HR rates, fairly close to his established levels so far. His 72.7 LOB% is nearly five points lower than his career rate and I think his estimators improve as his strikeout rate and potentially (hopefully) his velocity does. Three of his 17 runs are unearned, so maybe that’s the difference that would put him closer to his estimators.

Matt Shoemaker is allowing a 31.2 Hard% right at his career mark. That’s not good, but not terrible, though his LD rate has skyrocketed to 27%. That should have some regression to it and pull his BABIP back in line with his .289 career rate as a fly ball pitcher in a favorable park. His 14.9 HR/FB might be a real thing as homers plagued him last year and in the minors. A 60.2 LOB% is way too low though.

Max Scherzer is looking at an enormous 20.6 HR/FB that would make his ERA even worse if not for an 84.8 LOB%. While it’s difficult to project a pitcher for a strand rate above 80%, generating a strikeout rate above 30% would be a good way to get there.

Michael Fulmer has allowed a HR in each of his last four starts for a total of five and a 20.8 HR/FB. He generally keeps the ball on the ground with a 48.0 GB%, but has allowed a lot of hard contact (21.4 Hard-Soft%) that has not shown up in his 20.0 LD%, so it’s shown up in his HR rate. Oakland should help him in that regard. The other thing to consider is a .400 BABIP that screams regression. We’ve mentioned hard contact, but it not showing up in his line drive rate, though he hasn’t induced a single popup yet either. Maybe that will change tonight. He’s certainly not been easy to square up in the strike zone. If he can get his HRs under control and that’s never been an issue over larger samples in the minors (26 in nearly 400 innings), he’s going to be a quality pitcher, whose biggest question has usually been his health.

Mike Fiers – We previously discussed the high HR/FB. His career high is an 11.3 HR/FB last year in a full season, but his batted ball distribution is so all over the place it’s difficult to analyze this year. He’s established a pattern of frequent elevated hard contact though.

BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Masahiro Tanaka has not has his low BABIP affect his ERA much because of a higher HR rate, entirely due to Yankee Stadium, where he’s allowed all five of his HRs this year. His profile is decent, but a high ground ball rate has come with more average contact authority this year and I’d expect some regression in his BABIP, but it’s not too bad.

Robbie Ray allows a lot of hard contact and the Arizona defense is pretty bad. I’m not fighting any of this.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

There are still quite a few large price gaps today with eight pitchers differing by $1.5K or more, but though mostly at the top and bottom of DraftKings and it doesn’t have too much of an effect on our overall looks.

Value Tier One

Michael Fulmer (3t) has had some issues with hard contact, but is in a good spot at a good price with strikeout upside that rivals many of the top arms tonight. Valencia and Davis have come back to earth and the A’s have really struggled since losing their most legitimate LH bat.

Value Tier Two

Chris Archer (3t) is a pitcher many have probably abandoned and is not at all a safe play. He’s in a unique situation tonight that favors him in two ways though. The Yankee are terrible on the road and a park like the Trop does not favor their group skillset at all. Archer has also pitched much better at home, a big part of which has been being able to keep the ball in the park more often, but also retaining a strikeout rate above 30%. He costs much more on FanDuel, but I have him firmly among the second grouping on either site considering both the upside and risk in a very wide range of potential outcomes.

Matt Shoemaker shows some estimators well below his ERA, though still worse than league average, but that’s accounted for in a cost that’s below average (at least on DraftKings) in what appears to be a decent spot. If we believe his K% can move up a point or two, the estimators come down even further and he projects for an even higher strikeout rate tonight. He may be able to build on a strong last start in a similar matchup, though the long ball is always the biggest risk with him.

Danny Duffy – Nearly three quarters of his innings have come out of the bullpen and need to be heavily discounted, but he has looked really good in his two starts. He may not get more than five innings, but even a decent performance giving him 15 points or so, would pay him off on DraftKings (even more so today due to dropping another $1K in price after the rain out), though he probably drops a tier or even more on FanDuel for over $2K more.

Max Scherzer (1) doesn’t have to face Matt Carpenter, but still has to navigate a difficult St Louis lineup at a high price and one well above any pitcher on DraftKings. He’s capable, but you’re asking for 30 points on DK and a Win on FanDuel. He has allowed multiple HRs in three of his last four starts, so if that continues, you’re looking for him to keep his K rate above in the 30% range, which is possible, but not something that’s easy to project here. Seven to eight Ks and around a 25-26 K% through seven innings still has his expectation above anybody else tonight. Let’s just hope he doesn’t walk anyone and the long ball(s) stay of the solo variety.

Value Tier Three

Masahiro Tanaka (2) is probably in the most favorable spot with the least flaws of the five top priced pitchers tonight. The Rays strike out at a high rate, but he’s not completely in the clear with slightly lower GB and strikeout rates over his last three starts, but he should do well in a neutral matchup here.

Jacob deGrom (5t) – I don’t have complete faith that he’ll be back to form after increased velocity and strikeouts in his last start, but it’s definitely a step in the right direction and he’s in a better spot then some might realize tonight at a cost just below $10K. He’s not a strong cash game play tonight, but consider that if this is the start of at least somewhat of a bounce back, he might never be less than $10K in a decent spot again.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Mike Fiers is a decent pitcher at a decent price in a decent spot. He’s not the first pitcher I would look towards in his price rage and not the safest either, but most of the pitchers we’re looking at tonight are in a higher price range and I wanted to add a few from the mid-range that might at least be viable tonight. The park fits his skill set and should help him keep a few more balls in the park and there are only maybe a few batters in this lineup that concern you.

Zachary Davies is not good and easily the least talented pitcher to make the cut tonight. The Reds might be worse though. The difference between he and Conley in a very similar matchup tonight? Mostly cost, while you’d rather have the latter at an equal price. While closer on DK ($1.2K separation), he costs $2.1K less on FanDuel.

Felix Hernandez (5t) is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel and 2nd on DraftKings at an even higher price. I hate depending on batted ball outcomes to generate fantasy points, but this is probably one of the better spots to do so. I like him mostly for FanDuel where his team should be a healthy favorite to get him a Win and the Twins might even help him get to a league average strikeout rate. I can’t go higher than this paying for ground balls though and he’d probably be off my radar completely in any worse of a matchup or park.

Adam Conley is likely to be highly owned at a moderate price against the worst offense in the league. He’s probably in the best park adjusted matchup tonight too (although the Reds come close). Players will look at a guy with an above average K% in this spot and start drooling. It doesn’t appear that simple. Conley has walked at least four in three of his last six starts and has a total of just 11 strikeouts over his last three (76 batters). He’s still a decent bet, but not a sure thing.

Julio Urias – Highly regarded prospects no longer enter the league at a low cost. He’s right in the middle of DraftKings and a little lower on FanDuel. There’s a ton of talent here, but who knows how he’ll handle his first major league start in New York. More concerning are the protective limits imposed upon him. A good outing isn’t likely to get him more than five innings, a great one maybe six?

Robbie Ray – I’m not touching him even against the Padres in this park for over $8K on DraftKings, but with a potential Win in sight, $6.8K on FanDuel doesn’t look as terrible.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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