Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, April 30th
From the comments section on Friday: “If Tillman out-scores deGrom tonight (without an injury), I may not be able to bring myself to continue this.” Seven one-hit, shutout innings with five strikeouts was the mark to beat and deGrom did that just barely, so it continues on. Notes for pitches in all games except Cleveland today.
Column shading issues have been worked on, but it’s still not yet entirely what it’s supposed to be. There are still a few glitches and right now, which some readers pointed out last week, but priorities lie with some awesome new things being added to PlateIQ. I’m still hopeful everything will be corrected this week. Columns are sortable by clicking on the headers, which is probably the more important thing.
Everything below is entirely comprised of 2018 stats where it’s supposed to be, unless multi-year stats are being used. Baseball Prospectus has calculated DRA for 2018, so now we have that too and are complete. Last 30 day stats will finally start differing from season stats at this point. Statcast Home/Away xwOBA (actually all Home/Away) combines last season with this one, which I should probably incorporate into the glossary at some point.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | -12.6 | 4.42 | 6.0 | 53.1% | 1.05 | 5.33 | 4.07 | Twins | 91 | 97 | 99 |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | -2.5 | 5.01 | 5.1 | 38.7% | 1.01 | 4.33 | 5.76 | Brewers | 74 | 67 | 34 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | -23.8 | 3.62 | 5.8 | 53.0% | 0.87 | 3.52 | 4.21 | Yankees | 100 | 121 | 127 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | -7.1 | 4.31 | 6.2 | 47.7% | 1.06 | 4.72 | 4.39 | Indians | 90 | 76 | 101 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | -1.6 | 4.56 | 5.7 | 33.1% | 0.88 | 4.86 | Phillies | 78 | 91 | 92 | |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | -3.7 | 4.18 | 5.5 | 34.8% | 1.10 | 3.94 | 4.68 | Royals | 79 | 92 | 95 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | -1.3 | 6.87 | 3.0 | 36.4% | 0.93 | 6.74 | 6.87 | Giants | 106 | 80 | 110 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | -0.1 | 4.10 | 5.9 | 49.4% | 0.88 | 4.11 | 3.66 | Marlins | 82 | 66 | 88 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | -2 | 4.48 | 5.4 | 35.8% | 1.07 | 4.85 | 4.14 | Tigers | 110 | 96 | 107 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 2.6 | 3.94 | 5.5 | 50.0% | 1.01 | 4.28 | 4.18 | Nationals | 89 | 104 | 104 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | -3.4 | 4.54 | 5.6 | 40.3% | 1.10 | 4.87 | 5.71 | Red Sox | 117 | 129 | 85 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 3.2 | 3.89 | 6.3 | 43.3% | 0.93 | 3.70 | 6.13 | Padres | 76 | 86 | 107 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | -4.9 | 4.67 | 5.4 | 48.4% | 1.01 | 4.86 | 5.11 | Reds | 94 | 83 | 140 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 5 | 3.90 | 5.9 | 46.4% | 1.01 | 3.77 | 4.60 | Rockies | 73 | 102 | 66 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | -5.2 | 4.98 | 5.3 | 35.2% | 1.07 | 5.15 | 3.67 | Rays | 118 | 105 | 170 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 16.9 | 4.86 | 5.3 | 52.8% | 1.01 | 5.18 | 4.26 | Cubs | 107 | 95 | 84 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.1 | 4.89 | 5.5 | 44.7% | 1.05 | 4.69 | 5.24 | Blue Jays | 82 | 99 | 95 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.1 | 3.72 | 4.8 | 49.3% | 1.17 | 3.27 | 5.46 | Diamondbacks | 96 | 94 | 109 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 1.4 | 4.28 | 5.6 | 52.0% | 0.87 | 3.65 | 8.02 | Astros | 98 | 111 | 119 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | -16.3 | 4.32 | 6.1 | 47.7% | 1.01 | 4.01 | 4.60 | Pirates | 86 | 99 | 128 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 27 | 4.03 | 6.0 | 47.5% | 1.06 | 3.27 | 4.01 | Rangers | 87 | 84 | 86 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 11.2 | 3.66 | 6.2 | 45.7% | 1.17 | 3.25 | 3.60 | Dodgers | 104 | 110 | 117 |
Aaron Sanchez set a season with eight strikeouts against the Red Sox and has four straight quality starts (at least six innings with three runs or fewer). He’s missing more bats than his K% would have you believe. We otherwise should see lots of ground balls from him in a marginal spot.
Dan Straily is coming off the DL with a forearm injury (always concerning) and we don’t have any velocity readings for his three rehab starts. All were below AAA, so we don’t care about results, only that he has faced 46 batters over his last two starts, which speaks to the possibility of him getting in six innings with some efficiency. He turned a career high 12.1 SwStr% into a career high 22.1 K% last year with lots of fly balls and some home run issues, which is why it’s a good thing he’s facing the Phillies (27.2 K% vs RHP, 30 K% last seven days) in Miami rather than Philadelphia. This would appear to be one of the better matchups on the board.
Eduardo Rodriguez ended up throwing a quality start in Toronto (6.2 IP – 3 ER), but three strikeouts was a season low. However, he exceeded a 12% swinging strike rate for the fourth time in four tries this season and has a 28.8 K% at home since last season. His 14.3 SwStr% in 2018 is the highest mark on the board and among regular starters on tonight’s slate, his .271 xwOBA is third best. The only real concern in this matchup is the park. While the Royals have just a 14.8 K% over the last week, they have an 18.2 K-BB% vs LHP and I expect them to completely ignore his reverse splits.
Jake Arrieta has struck out a total of 13 over his last three starts with 10 of them coming in the middle one against the Pirates (the lowest strikeout rate of his three opponents). The Diamondbacks and Rays were the teams he totaled three strikeouts against combined. His swinging strike rate has been below 7% in three of four starts, though he has pitched into the seventh inning in three straight with a 67.2 GB% and -6.7 Hard-Soft%. He’s got the Marlins (17.8 K-BB%, 5.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) in Miami tonight.
Jeff Samardzija has walked and struck out seven each through two starts, the first without allowing a run somehow through five innings, the second which resulted in six runs (3.2 innings). His velocity is down (1.4 mph from last year) and really, the only positive in his performance is an 84.5 mph aEV that’s best on the board. His 28.6 GB% is well below his league average career mark, but shouldn’t hurt him too much in this park even if it continues along this path. The one thing we like tonight is his matchup with the Padres (30.3 K% on the road, 28.4 K% vs RHP, 29 K% last seven days).
Jon Lester has been an every other start kind of guy this year and the good news, if you believe in that sort of pattern, is he’s due for a good one this time out. Further good news is that he’s gone at least six innings in three of his last four and gets to face the Rockies at home. Though Colorado has had some success against southpaws (22 HR/FB, 10.5 BB%), it comes with a 27.3 K%. His 13.6% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board.
Tanner Roark has gone at least six innings in four starts, allowing two earned runs or less in three. While he’s only exceeded a 9.5 SwStr% in one start, he will generally miss enough bats to be useful (though Pittsburgh has just a 19.7 K% vs RHP) and is one of few pitchers who average more than six innings per start over the last two calendar years that you might have any confidence in tonight. His main strength appears to be having an ability to be present when the rest of the board is worrisome.
Zack Greinke did strike out nine for the second time this season in his last outing, but also allowed at least four runs for the third time in four starts. He’s still missing a lot of bats with the slider, but continued velocity loss is getting his other pitches spanked (12.8% Barrels/BBE). On this board, we’ll side with the strikeouts, but just barely against a good Dodgers’ offense.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Charlie Morton (.254 – 95.1% – 22.2) lasted four innings against the Angels in a start in which he doubled his season HR total to four and walked five, striking out just two of 20 batters faced. What the hell happened? He wasn’t throwing any fewer pitches in the zone (48% matches his season rate), but there just wasn’t much chasing going on outside of it (23%). His 5.3 SwStr% was the first time he’s been below 14% in a start. There were no velocity concerns and that single miscue is not the reason (or at least the main reason) he’s off our board today. It’s those damn Yankees. They’re walking a ton and otherwise crushing baseballs when they’re not and we may have gotten a bit over-enthusiastic on our expectations for this pitcher.
Jason Hammel (.255 – 67.4% – 2.6) probably has the worst matchup on the board in Boston, though I have no idea why they’re suddenly striking out so much more recently (28.1% over the last week vs just 17.8% vs RHP this year). A lot of those strikeouts are coming against southpaws, but not all of them. Hammel has not been absolutely terrible, but has a season high of just five strikeouts, which he’s accomplished once in five starts.
Jhoulys Chacin (.289 – 74.9% – 12.1) has allowed three unearned runs (18.8% of total) and seems to have forgotten completely how to miss bats this season. His 92.9 Z-Contact% is worst on the board and his 42.6% 95+ mph EV is third worst. The Reds have not been good overall against RHP, but do have some LH thump (LHBs .417 wOBA against Chacin this year) and just a 4.6 K-BB% over the last seven days. All the Votto tonight please.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jameson Taillon has allowed 12 runs in 5.1 innings (three home runs) over his last two starts against the Phillies and Tigers. He’s struck out a total of eight over his last three starts. The odd thing is that his velocity has actually bumped up last two starts, which has resulted in a 45.5 GB% (50% career) and 45.8 Hard%. Never a big swing and miss guy, when the quality of his contact abandons him, there’s a problem. The good news is that his season numbers are still solid (22.2 K%, 54.8 GB%, .292 xwOBA), but something seems to be off and the matchup with a banged up Washington offense seems to be about a neutral spot in which he costs in excess of $8K for a pitcher who may not have a ton of upside even when he’s right.
Kyle Freeland has some extreme platoon splits. He’s not generating as many ground balls overall, but is missing more bats. He’s struggled more in all three of his road starts (14 IP – 10 ER – 7 BB – 12 K) than he has in two home starts.
Jake Faria has allowed exactly three earned run in three of his five starts, but a total of 12 in his other two (six innings). He’s also only completed six innings once. Heck, he’s only completed five innings twice. He’s having significant issues throwing strikes and when he finally does, it’s getting barreled up too often (12.5% of BBEs). The Tigers are not really a dangerous offense, but they haven’t been bad and are at least making contact (19.5 K% vs RHP). While he costs just $5.9K on FanDuel ($1.3K more on DraftKings), I have little confidence in his ability to get through the necessary six innings for the quality start.
Sonny Gray is off to a disastrous start. He’s completed five innings just once and has walked nine with just four strikeouts over his last two starts (43 BF). He’s not generating ground balls, which his 92.1 mph aEV and 48.6% 95+ mph EV are both worst on the board. Good luck in Houston.
Eric Lauer made his major league debut in Colorado (3 IP – 6 ER – 4 BB – 3 K – 19 BF), which really doesn’t help us out a lot for evaluation purposes. Although with just 18 innings above AA and less than 100 above A ball, his minor league numbers (above average K% at every stop) look a bit more impressive than the 40 Future Value grade slapped on his Fangraphs profile page. The Giants have been hitting the ball a bit lately and should be much better against LHP (17.1 K-BB%), but at least he goes from one extreme park to another that’s actually in his favor today.
Ross Stripling is a reliever and hasn’t exceeded two innings in an outing this year. The good news is that he’s priced as such and could provide more point per dollar value than some higher priced arms in a decent spot tonight (Diamondbacks 24.8 K% vs RHP), but who are you spending so much on that you need him in your secondary spot?
Lance Lynn has walked at least three in all four starts and struck out more than that in just half of them, while allowing 46% of his contact above a 95 mph EV.
Jordan Zimmermann is missing a lot of bats, which is a surprise, but about the only thing going well for him. He’s allowed at least four runs in every start and another surprise is that this Rays’ offense just keeps pummeling (20.4 HR/FB last seven days).
Brandon Finnegan has the worst xwOBA (.411) on the board. The Brewers represent the top matchup on the board by wRC+, surprisingly. They’ve been hitting for very little power.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 18.7% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.3% | Season | 17.2% | 11.2% | 6.9% | 1.1% | Road | 13.8% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 5.9% | L14Days | 19.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% | |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 18.5% | Season | 15.9% | 14.3% | 17.6% | 15.9% | Home | 24.3% | 12.2% | 16.7% | 12.7% | L14Days | 14.6% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 13.3% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Yrs | 26.9% | 8.3% | 13.8% | 3.9% | Season | 29.4% | 9.2% | 22.2% | -1.4% | Home | 26.8% | 8.9% | 18.6% | 3.2% | L14Days | 22.7% | 11.4% | 22.2% | 3.4% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 19.3% | Season | 25.3% | 8.4% | 22.9% | 30.6% | Road | 18.3% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 16.3% | L14Days | 16.1% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 48.8% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 8.3% | 12.6% | 15.0% | Season | Home | 21.8% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 15.6% | L14Days | ||||||||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 24.1% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 9.0% | Season | 24.5% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 7.9% | Home | 28.8% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 7.7% | L14Days | 15.4% | 7.7% | 13.3% | 12.5% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | L2 Yrs | 15.8% | 21.1% | 33.3% | 25.0% | Season | 15.8% | 21.1% | 33.3% | 25.0% | Road | 15.8% | 21.1% | 33.3% | 25.0% | L14Days | 15.8% | 21.1% | 33.3% | 25.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 23.2% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 5.8% | Season | 18.8% | 8.3% | 5.6% | -5.8% | Road | 22.6% | 8.1% | 16.8% | 11.0% | L14Days | 23.5% | 7.8% | -17.2% | |
| Jake Faria | Rays | L2 Yrs | 22.8% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 16.3% | Season | 20.2% | 14.1% | 9.7% | 34.4% | Road | 23.3% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 12.2% | L14Days | 25.0% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 44.8% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.0% | 6.3% | 13.1% | 10.8% | Season | 22.2% | 6.5% | 21.1% | 6.7% | Road | 21.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | L14Days | 18.2% | 6.1% | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Yrs | 18.5% | 6.6% | 11.8% | 16.1% | Season | 12.8% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 25.2% | Road | 18.2% | 5.9% | 10.6% | 16.2% | L14Days | 8.3% | 6.7% | 31.3% | |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Yrs | 22.3% | 5.2% | 12.9% | 12.5% | Season | 16.3% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 24.1% | Home | 22.1% | 5.1% | 9.6% | 4.0% | L14Days | 16.3% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 24.1% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 18.6% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 11.0% | Season | 14.1% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 20.8% | Road | 17.4% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 13.7% | L14Days | 17.7% | 10.3% | 4.3% | 18.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 23.9% | 7.4% | 13.8% | 8.2% | Season | 19.1% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 11.1% | Home | 24.4% | 7.3% | 15.7% | 4.8% | L14Days | 22.5% | 6.1% | 14.3% | 29.4% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 15.2% | 5.9% | 13.0% | 20.6% | Season | 24.4% | 5.6% | 16.7% | 15.9% | Home | 16.2% | 5.2% | 12.0% | 27.5% | L14Days | 26.2% | 7.1% | 38.5% | 25.0% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 6.9% | Season | 21.7% | 9.6% | 16.1% | 2.5% | Road | 14.3% | 9.4% | 15.3% | 12.2% | L14Days | 21.7% | 8.7% | 7.7% | |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | L2 Yrs | 20.2% | 11.1% | 14.8% | 8.6% | Season | 24.4% | 20.0% | 23.1% | 14.0% | Home | 20.0% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 2.7% | L14Days | 20.8% | 16.7% | 28.6% | 13.3% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 21.5% | 6.5% | 12.8% | 10.3% | Season | 26.7% | 10.0% | -2.6% | Road | 25.0% | 7.1% | 23.3% | 5.3% | L14Days | 27.3% | 22.7% | -9.1% | ||
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 8.5% | 15.5% | 14.3% | Season | 17.3% | 14.6% | 8.3% | 13.5% | Road | 22.2% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 14.6% | L14Days | 9.3% | 20.9% | 14.3% | 30.0% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 7.1% | Season | 22.6% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 9.6% | Home | 22.5% | 7.1% | 16.7% | 7.3% | L14Days | 18.9% | 9.4% | 18.2% | 16.7% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Yrs | 23.3% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 15.6% | Season | 24.5% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 13.3% | Home | 26.2% | 6.1% | 16.0% | 18.7% | L14Days | 24.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 5.6% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 24.6% | 5.7% | 14.1% | 14.3% | Season | 26.2% | 2.5% | 18.8% | 18.6% | Home | 28.7% | 4.9% | 13.3% | 22.3% | L14Days | 22.0% | 4.0% | 15.4% | 32.5% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | Home | 24.2% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 17.0% | RH | 23.4% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 19.0% | L7Days | 23.0% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 19.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 6.2% | LH | 22.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 12.1% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 24.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 14.3% | RH | 23.2% | 11.1% | 15.8% | 18.2% | L7Days | 27.6% | 11.5% | 19.7% | 30.6% |
| Indians | Home | 22.0% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 25.4% | LH | 19.4% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 19.0% | L7Days | 24.9% | 7.5% | 15.8% | 22.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 26.7% | 12.2% | 5.9% | 8.2% | RH | 27.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | L7Days | 30.0% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 22.2% |
| Royals | Road | 18.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 16.8% | LH | 25.4% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 18.2% | L7Days | 14.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 22.2% |
| Giants | Home | 23.1% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 18.0% | LH | 25.1% | 8.0% | 14.0% | 19.4% | L7Days | 20.9% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 15.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | RH | 25.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 5.8% | L7Days | 25.9% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 17.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 17.0% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 27.3% | RH | 19.5% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 20.8% | L7Days | 22.6% | 6.4% | 13.1% | 18.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 22.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 13.4% | RH | 20.5% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 13.3% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.9% | 18.4% | 20.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 19.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 17.9% | RH | 17.8% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 21.8% | L7Days | 28.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 16.1% |
| Padres | Road | 30.3% | 6.5% | 13.9% | 10.1% | RH | 28.4% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 13.8% | L7Days | 29.0% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 17.8% |
| Reds | Home | 24.0% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 15.5% | RH | 21.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 13.4% | L7Days | 16.1% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 23.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 25.2% | 8.9% | 14.0% | 10.7% | LH | 27.3% | 10.5% | 22.0% | 15.8% | L7Days | 26.6% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 17.9% |
| Rays | Road | 22.1% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 9.0% | RH | 22.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 14.6% | L7Days | 18.1% | 5.4% | 20.4% | 10.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 19.2% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 3.5% | LH | 22.5% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 15.0% | L7Days | 20.8% | 4.8% | 10.2% | 5.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.7% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 15.7% | RH | 23.9% | 10.5% | 16.2% | 14.5% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.8% | 16.9% | 15.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 24.4% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 20.8% | RH | 24.8% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 15.2% | L7Days | 23.0% | 10.9% | 15.5% | 6.7% |
| Astros | Home | 23.3% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 10.2% | RH | 22.4% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.7% | L7Days | 20.5% | 10.3% | 15.5% | 17.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.6% | 7.1% | 11.5% | 11.4% | RH | 19.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.5% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 25.5% | 6.0% | 15.4% | 23.0% | RH | 24.6% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 24.3% | L7Days | 27.2% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 19.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 18.6% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 15.4% | RH | 21.2% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.7% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 16.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 17.2% | 10.8% | 1.59 | 17.2% | 10.8% | 1.59 |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 15.9% | 9.0% | 1.77 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 1.77 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 29.4% | 14.2% | 2.07 | 29.4% | 14.2% | 2.07 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 25.3% | 12.1% | 2.09 | 24.6% | 12.0% | 2.05 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | ||||||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 24.5% | 14.3% | 1.71 | 24.5% | 14.3% | 1.71 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 15.8% | 6.8% | 2.32 | 15.8% | 6.8% | 2.32 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 18.8% | 7.1% | 2.65 | 18.8% | 7.1% | 2.65 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 20.2% | 9.3% | 2.17 | 20.2% | 9.3% | 2.17 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 22.2% | 8.8% | 2.52 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 2.52 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 12.8% | 8.7% | 1.47 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 1.47 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 16.3% | 8.4% | 1.94 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 1.94 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 14.1% | 6.7% | 2.10 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 2.10 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 19.1% | 9.8% | 1.95 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 2.15 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 24.4% | 10.4% | 2.35 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 2.35 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 21.7% | 8.6% | 2.52 | 21.7% | 8.6% | 2.52 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 24.4% | 13.1% | 1.86 | 24.4% | 13.1% | 1.86 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 26.7% | 12.0% | 2.23 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 2.23 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 17.3% | 9.3% | 1.86 | 17.3% | 9.3% | 1.86 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 22.6% | 9.5% | 2.38 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 2.38 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 24.5% | 11.4% | 2.15 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 2.15 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 26.2% | 13.6% | 1.93 | 26.2% | 13.6% | 1.93 |
Aaron Sanchez has a career 7.7 SwStr%, so this is obviously a massive improvement. It looks like he’s throwing a lot more changeups. A lot more…like from less than 10% to nearly 30% of his pitches. Velocity is down overall, but it’s been more up and down…then up again.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 3.69 | 4.86 | 1.17 | 3.69 | 1.36 | 4.44 | 0.75 | 4.47 | 0.78 | 3.69 | 4.86 | 1.17 | 5.05 | 1.36 | 4.44 | 0.75 |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 8.03 | 5.78 | -2.25 | 8.03 | -2.14 | 6.91 | -1.12 | 6.89 | -1.14 | 8.03 | 5.79 | -2.24 | 5.89 | -2.14 | 6.91 | -1.12 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 1.86 | 3.19 | 1.33 | 1.86 | 1.22 | 3.91 | 2.05 | 3.93 | 2.07 | 1.86 | 3.19 | 1.33 | 3.08 | 1.22 | 3.91 | 2.05 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 4.41 | 3.77 | -0.64 | 4.41 | -0.44 | 5.40 | 0.99 | 5.43 | 1.02 | 4.34 | 3.68 | -0.66 | 3.93 | -0.41 | 5.01 | 0.67 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | ||||||||||||||||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 3.63 | 3.86 | 0.23 | 3.63 | 0.38 | 3.94 | 0.31 | 3.97 | 0.34 | 3.63 | 3.87 | 0.24 | 4.01 | 0.38 | 3.94 | 0.31 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 18.00 | 6.87 | -11.13 | 18.00 | -11.26 | 9.51 | -8.49 | 9.49 | -8.51 | 18.00 | 6.87 | -11.13 | 6.74 | -11.26 | 9.51 | -8.49 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 1.82 | 3.99 | 2.17 | 1.82 | 2.01 | 3.22 | 1.40 | 3.20 | 1.38 | 1.82 | 3.99 | 2.17 | 3.83 | 2.01 | 3.22 | 1.40 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 6.33 | 5.36 | -0.97 | 6.33 | -0.65 | 5.24 | -1.09 | 5.27 | -1.06 | 6.33 | 5.37 | -0.96 | 5.68 | -0.65 | 5.24 | -1.09 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 4.91 | 3.58 | -1.33 | 4.91 | -1.39 | 4.39 | -0.52 | 4.36 | -0.55 | 4.91 | 3.59 | -1.32 | 3.52 | -1.39 | 4.39 | -0.52 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 3.38 | 5.03 | 1.65 | 3.38 | 1.43 | 3.37 | -0.01 | 3.39 | 0.01 | 3.38 | 5.03 | 1.65 | 4.81 | 1.43 | 3.37 | -0.01 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 6.23 | 6.11 | -0.12 | 6.23 | -0.09 | 5.49 | -0.74 | 5.46 | -0.77 | 6.23 | 6.13 | -0.10 | 6.14 | -0.09 | 5.49 | -0.74 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 3.99 | 5.28 | 1.29 | 3.99 | 1.18 | 5.19 | 1.20 | 5.17 | 1.18 | 3.99 | 5.29 | 1.30 | 5.17 | 1.18 | 5.19 | 1.20 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 3.29 | 4.56 | 1.27 | 3.29 | 1.36 | 4.79 | 1.50 | 4.77 | 1.48 | 2.63 | 4.26 | 1.63 | 4.52 | 1.89 | 4.81 | 2.18 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 7.91 | 3.77 | -4.14 | 7.91 | -3.81 | 5.04 | -2.87 | 5.07 | -2.84 | 7.91 | 3.78 | -4.13 | 4.1 | -3.81 | 5.04 | -2.87 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 4.33 | 4.33 | 0.00 | 4.33 | 0.01 | 4.96 | 0.63 | 4.93 | 0.60 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 0.00 | 4.34 | 0.01 | 4.96 | 0.63 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 7.71 | 5.50 | -2.21 | 7.71 | -2.91 | 5.81 | -1.90 | 5.83 | -1.88 | 7.71 | 5.50 | -2.21 | 4.8 | -2.91 | 5.81 | -1.90 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.63 | 3.52 | 2.89 | 0.63 | 3.31 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.18 | 1.55 | 0.63 | 3.52 | 2.89 | 3.94 | 3.31 | 2.20 | 1.57 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 7.71 | 5.50 | -2.21 | 7.71 | -2.13 | 5.04 | -2.67 | 5.06 | -2.65 | 7.71 | 5.50 | -2.21 | 5.58 | -2.13 | 5.04 | -2.67 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 3.77 | 4.18 | 0.41 | 3.77 | 0.52 | 4.73 | 0.96 | 4.71 | 0.94 | 3.77 | 4.18 | 0.41 | 4.29 | 0.52 | 4.73 | 0.96 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 2.41 | 3.95 | 1.54 | 2.41 | 1.78 | 3.39 | 0.98 | 3.41 | 1.00 | 2.41 | 3.96 | 1.55 | 4.19 | 1.78 | 3.39 | 0.98 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 4.80 | 3.08 | -1.72 | 4.80 | -1.69 | 4.05 | -0.75 | 4.02 | -0.78 | 4.80 | 3.08 | -1.72 | 3.11 | -1.69 | 4.05 | -0.75 |
Aaron Sanchez has an ERA around a run below all of his estimators and I’m not immediately understanding why, aside from a 6.9 HR/FB, which explains the FIP. A rise in strikeout rate would close the gap a bit too.
Jake Arrieta has a .203 BABIP, 64.8 LOB% and 5.6 HR/FB, so he has a bunch of regression in different directions soon to come.
Jon Lester has a .247 BABIP with absolutely nothing to support it.
Tanner Roark has a .192 BABIP and even a 38.6 GB% with a 21.1 IFFB% isn’t enough to sustain that.
Zack Greinke has a .313 BABIP and 18.8 HR/FB, which, I’m not sure are that out of line with his non-slider offerings right now.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 0.305 | 0.281 | -0.024 | 56.0% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 82.6% | 35.2% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 0.295 | 0.366 | 0.071 | 34.1% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 81.7% | 45.6% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.266 | 0.254 | -0.012 | 59.2% | 15.5% | 16.7% | 78.0% | 30.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.316 | 0.300 | -0.016 | 41.8% | 22.4% | 5.7% | 81.1% | 30.3% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.293 | |||||||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 0.284 | 0.267 | -0.017 | 49.2% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 79.8% | 39.3% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.310 | 0.455 | 0.145 | 36.4% | 36.4% | 0.0% | 85.7% | 55.8% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.287 | 0.203 | -0.084 | 63.2% | 10.3% | 0.0% | 83.7% | 25.0% |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 0.307 | 0.279 | -0.028 | 26.6% | 25.0% | 12.9% | 85.5% | 40.4% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.289 | 0.268 | -0.021 | 54.8% | 19.2% | 5.3% | 88.8% | 30.8% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 0.290 | 0.255 | -0.035 | 44.9% | 19.6% | 5.3% | 90.4% | 32.6% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 0.287 | 0.321 | 0.034 | 28.6% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 89.2% | 31.6% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.271 | 0.289 | 0.018 | 46.5% | 20.2% | 9.1% | 92.9% | 38.1% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.274 | 0.247 | -0.027 | 40.0% | 21.3% | 6.5% | 85.0% | 36.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.291 | 0.397 | 0.106 | 28.6% | 23.8% | 23.3% | 88.2% | 30.6% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.299 | 0.270 | -0.029 | 46.1% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 87.5% | 37.4% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.310 | 0.362 | 0.052 | 52.0% | 22.0% | 7.7% | 74.7% | 40.3% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.302 | 0.316 | 0.014 | 34.2% | 23.7% | 18.8% | 85.3% | 34.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 0.286 | 0.375 | 0.089 | 46.6% | 20.5% | 12.5% | 89.2% | 38.8% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.277 | 0.192 | -0.085 | 38.6% | 21.7% | 21.2% | 88.4% | 37.9% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.253 | 0.247 | -0.006 | 43.8% | 18.0% | 17.6% | 87.3% | 32.9% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.277 | 0.313 | 0.036 | 39.5% | 23.3% | 9.4% | 82.3% | 32.7% |
The Astros have both the worst defense in baseball by UZR and a lot of projections, but also one of the lowest team BABIP marks allowed in the league. Some of that is on the pitching no doubt and also probably defensive shifting, but still a surprise. Perhaps for their next trick, the Astros are hoping to prove that the quality of the defender does not matter.
Jake Arrieta isn’t getting a lot of swings and misses, but the odd thing is that a lot of them are happening in the strike zone. He’s getting a lot of his swings outside of it, but they seem to be turning into weak ground balls (which certainly help the BABIP), rather than whiffs. He has not generated a single IFFB, nor has he allowed a single Barrel (below).
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 0.339 | -0.018 | 0.341 | -0.053 | 0.328 | -0.034 | -0.3 | 89 | 8.8 | 37.4 | 91 |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 0.411 | 0.009 | 0.306 | 0.015 | 0.411 | 0.009 | -1.1 | 87.5 | 6.8 | 38.6 | 44 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.251 | 0.020 | 0.293 | 0.005 | 0.251 | 0.020 | -0.9 | 86.2 | 1.4 | 25.4 | 71 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.366 | -0.011 | 0.327 | -0.030 | 0.360 | -0.015 | -0.5 | 88.9 | 10.2 | 38.8 | 98 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.302 | 0.020 | |||||||||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 0.271 | 0.008 | 0.311 | 0.018 | 0.271 | 0.008 | -1.0 | 88.8 | 4.8 | 36.5 | 63 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | |||||||||||
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.230 | -0.014 | 0.322 | 0.001 | 0.230 | -0.014 | -0.9 | 85 | 0.0 | 23.2 | 69 |
| Jake Faria | Rays | 0.409 | -0.072 | 0.346 | -0.001 | 0.409 | -0.072 | -1.1 | 89.9 | 12.5 | 37.5 | 64 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.292 | 0.000 | 0.301 | 0.013 | 0.292 | 0.000 | -0.3 | 86.8 | 4.0 | 32.0 | 75 |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | 0.348 | -0.096 | 0.347 | -0.014 | 0.348 | -0.096 | 0.1 | 88.1 | 7.5 | 29.9 | 107 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 0.334 | 0.009 | 0.321 | -0.016 | 0.334 | 0.009 | -0.8 | 84.5 | 6.9 | 27.6 | 29 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.355 | -0.019 | 0.337 | 0.026 | 0.343 | -0.040 | -1.6 | 89.5 | 5.9 | 42.6 | 101 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.376 | -0.071 | 0.308 | 0.006 | 0.375 | -0.103 | -0.4 | 90.1 | 13.6 | 38.3 | 81 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.358 | 0.050 | 0.365 | 0.009 | 0.413 | 0.042 | -0.6 | 89.6 | 12.7 | 38.1 | 63 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.315 | 0.008 | 0.360 | 0.001 | 0.315 | 0.008 | 0.5 | 85.9 | 7.6 | 30.4 | 79 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.376 | 0.007 | 0.315 | -0.028 | 0.376 | 0.007 | -0.4 | 89.7 | 8.0 | 46.0 | 50 |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | 0.270 | -0.009 | 0.311 | -0.007 | 0.270 | -0.009 | -0.8 | 85.3 | 2.6 | 26.3 | 38 |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | 0.385 | -0.007 | 0.315 | -0.002 | 0.385 | -0.007 | -0.3 | 92.1 | 6.8 | 48.6 | 74 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.335 | -0.067 | 0.315 | 0.005 | 0.335 | -0.067 | -1.2 | 86.8 | 6.0 | 37.3 | 83 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.292 | -0.030 | 0.322 | -0.012 | 0.292 | -0.030 | -0.6 | 86.9 | 5.5 | 31.9 | 91 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.347 | -0.029 | 0.298 | -0.033 | 0.347 | -0.029 | -0.8 | 90.1 | 12.8 | 37.2 | 86 |
Jake Arrieta is allowing a lot of contact, but it’s been great contact.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
With no single pitcher about the $10K mark on both sites (three on DraftKings), we have our work cut out for us. The good news is that the value seems to lie more in the middle of the board than the top. In fact, I think players can get away with an entire fade of the top of the board if they wish.
Value Tier One
Eduardo Rodriguez (2) has gone at least six innings in three straight starts with a 12+ SwStr% in all four. He gets the Royals at home for around $7.5K on either site. I don’t understand the low cost.
Value Tier Two
Dan Straily is back and he’s really cheap (less than $6.5K on either site) in a pretty damn good spot in a great park against a highly strikeout prone offense.
Jake Arrieta (1) has been all over the place with his strikeouts and only above a 7 SwStr% once, which is the real concern here. However, it’s not as if hitters seem to be locked in on him at all. The batted ball profile has been so exceptional that he still has a .230 xwOBA that’s best on the board. He’s in a great spot in Miami tonight and just the third most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but the most expensive on DraftKings without much confidence that you’ll get enough strikeouts. If not, we’re going to need seven innings of near perfection, which a quality pitcher can certainly supply against this offense.
Value Tier Three
Aaron Sanchez is simply too cheap ($6.5K either site). There’s a bit more strikeout upside with a double digit SwStr%, even if we don’t expect him to preserve it that high. Call him an average pitcher in an average spot and it’s definitely too cheap. Six innings of ground balls with possibly enough strikeouts seems about right for expectations tonight.
Tanner Roark just generally finds himself appearing on these boards where he looks much safer than anyone else by comparison. He’s not the most glamorous name on the board, but he’s probably going to give you at least six innings of competent pitching against the Pirates.
Jon Lester hasn’t been good, at least not consistently, and when he has been, it’s been BABIP assisted. He’s missing fewer bats and his Statcast numbers are concerning. The Rockies are better against LHP. They have some right-handed bats and just once left-handed one, who also hits LHP well, but there’s generally at least some value in opposing them on the road and his cost is now below $8.5K.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Zack Greinke is expensive and allowing too much hard contact, while facing a quality offense in a suspect park. There are not a lot of arms we can expect a quality performance with lots of strikeouts from tonight though. I have a lot of concern about paying up for him tonight, but there are worse choices on this board without his upside for sure.
Jeff Samardzija hasn’t been very good through two starts, but is in a great spot hosting the Padres tonight. He’s not exactly cheap, but might be able to fake it for six innings tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.