Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, August 20th
The weekend was some much needed space between the last article and today’s. Most of our pitchers did not do what we wanted them to on Friday. While it later turned out that a couple of those pitchers were injured (Stroman, Lucchesi), others just hit the bottom of their ranges, which we knew was a risk (Morton). Then there’s Robbie Ray. He just did what Robbie Ray always does. And that’s the exact opposite of whatever you need him to. Unfortunately, today’s board appears difficult as well with only one high upside pitcher (from a K% perspective) and almost all the highest strikeout rates facing contact prone teams.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | -4.9 | 3.70 | 5.7 | 50.7% | 0.90 | 3.45 | 2.58 | Cardinals | 104 | 104 | 108 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | -7.9 | 5.27 | 5.6 | 45.9% | 1.01 | 4.97 | 5.56 | Blue Jays | 100 | 102 | 101 |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | 4.80 | 5.3 | 37.3% | 0.90 | 5.44 | 4.95 | Dodgers | 106 | 91 | 126 | |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 3.7 | 4.85 | 5.5 | 42.1% | 0.95 | 4.93 | 5.37 | Athletics | 93 | 106 | 107 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 6.2 | 4.44 | 5.5 | 37.3% | 1.04 | 4.75 | 5.73 | Reds | 96 | 95 | 137 |
| Chris Archer | Pirates | -0.1 | 3.55 | 5.8 | 44.5% | 0.97 | 3.14 | 3.44 | Braves | 105 | 96 | 111 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 6.1 | 3.03 | 6.8 | 43.8% | 1.12 | 3.02 | 3.16 | Red Sox | 117 | 117 | 67 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | -4.7 | 4.82 | 5.2 | 38.3% | 0.91 | 5.25 | 4.03 | Mets | 80 | 79 | 154 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | -1.6 | 4.59 | 5.4 | 45.4% | 0.91 | 4.17 | 6.06 | Astros | 115 | 104 | 114 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 3.56 | 6.2 | 42.0% | 0.91 | 3.58 | 2.35 | Mariners | 95 | 101 | 61 | |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | -2.2 | 5.12 | 5.0 | 42.3% | 1.04 | 4.68 | 4.40 | Brewers | 93 | 92 | 85 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | -0.6 | 3.93 | 1.6 | 46.6% | 0.94 | 3.00 | 5.73 | Royals | 83 | 85 | 107 |
| Jorge Lopez | Royals | 4.1 | 5.35 | 4.2 | 45.2% | 0.94 | 4.02 | 6.10 | Rays | 104 | 97 | 82 |
| Kevin Gausman | Braves | 2.7 | 4.22 | 5.8 | 45.5% | 0.97 | 4.40 | 3.81 | Pirates | 98 | 97 | 82 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | -4.8 | 5.29 | 5.7 | 42.9% | 1.04 | 5.38 | 3.43 | Twins | 104 | 97 | 136 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | -5.2 | 4.81 | 5.5 | 28.3% | 1.01 | 5.10 | 5.51 | Orioles | 78 | 92 | 96 |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 1.7 | 4.38 | 5.5 | 41.7% | 0.95 | 4.50 | 2.51 | Rangers | 87 | 98 | 115 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 7.9 | 3.95 | 6.3 | 41.0% | 1.12 | 4.18 | 2.85 | Indians | 99 | 107 | 104 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | -6.1 | 4.25 | 5.6 | 45.1% | 0.91 | 4.13 | 3.89 | Giants | 77 | 90 | 33 |
| Stephen Gonsalves | Twins | -0.1 | 1.04 | White Sox | 90 | 88 | 123 |
Alex Wood completed five innings of one run ball with six strikeouts on 92 pitches after a short DL stint. He had eclipsed 100 pitches in three of his previous four starts, missing six innings in eight straight starts by just a single out. He maintains a league average strikeout rate and has a ground ball rate above 60% in three of his last four. The performance hasn’t been mind-blowing, but his .304 xwOBA is behind just the two extremely expensive pitchers tonight. The Cardinals are a dangerous and well-disciplined offense vs LHP (11.4 K-BB%, 16.3 HR/FB), but Dodger Stadium is the most negative run environment on the board.
Chris Archer has struck out 16 of 68 batters for his new team and has not surpassed five innings in any of his three starts. His SwStr rate has been above 13% in two of those starts though. His 13.3 SwStr% for the season is third best on the board, two full points ahead of the next highest pitcher. His 89.6 mph aEV is highest on the board, but the Braves don’t have a lot of power (11 HR/FB vs RHP). The problem they present is a lack of strikeouts though (20.5% vs RHP).
Derek Holland has resurrected his career in San Francisco. The park helps, but the underlying numbers are strong as well as a result of increased slider usage. He walked four Dodgers last time out, but also struck out seven of 23 batters without allowing a run. His 24.1 K% is actually fourth best on the board tonight. He travels from one great park to another tonight and while the Mets are the hottest team on the board (154 wRC+ last seven days), the peripherals over that span are just average and they’re one of the worst offenses both at home (80 wRC+, 8.5 HR/FB) and vs LHP (79 wRC+, 25.5 K%).
Gerrit Cole struck out 12 Rockies in his last start. Prior to striking out just five Mariners in the one before, he’d struck out at least eight in five straight. His 34.9 K% is a full 10 points above Kluber, who has the second best K% on the board tonight. His 2.86 SIERA is best by nearly one half run. His .288 xwOBA is only best on the board by five points, but his .251 xwOBA over the last month is best by nine points. Our Triple Crown winner tonight, he’s easily and by far the top arm on the board. It’s mostly a sideways park transition to Seattle tonight, but perhaps a little bit of a downgrade in run environment actually. The Mariners have a 20.1 K% vs RHP this season and, as noted, he struck out just five of them two starts back, but he also struck out eight of them four starts ago. Though he’s struck out just 18 Mariners in three starts this year, he’s gone at least 6.2 innings in each outing against them.
Kevin Gausman struck out eight Brewers in eight innings two starts back. In his other two starts for the Braves, he’s struck out a total of four batters. Those were against the Marlins and Mets. This is concerning because he struck out exactly two batters in three of his last five starts for the Orioles as well. The Pirates also have just a 19.6 K% vs RHP, though they seem to occasionally pile up strikeouts in matchups you might not expect. The other thing is that there’s just one pitcher above a 24 K% in a decent strikeout matchup tonight. He’s allowed six runs in 19 innings for the Braves, is in a favorable park and received a massive defensive upgrade with this trade. This includes a 31 point team defense BABIP improvement alone.
Mike Fiers has struck out 13 of 43 batters in two starts for the A’s, while allowing just three runs in 11.1 innings. There’s nothing all that impressive about him and while strikeouts are up over the last month (23.1%), so is hard contact (.371 xwOBA is third worst on the board last 30 days). For the season, both his 89.1 mph aEV and 9.7% Barrels/BBE are third worst on the board. The park should help him and although he faces a Texas offense with a lot of power (13.6 HR/FB on the road, 15.1 HR/FB vs RHP), he does get to do so in Oakland and they do offer a split high 26 K% on the road with a fourth highest 24.9 K% vs RHP.
Zack Wheeler had his worst stuff in a while last time out in Baltimore. He lasted just five inning with three strikeouts, but still allowed just a single run with an 18.8 Hard% and probably could have thrown another inning (95 pitches) had the Mets’ offense not exploded on Baltimore pitching. His 24.7 K% over the last month is fourth best on the board. His 11.1 SwStr% or the season is third best. He’s combining an above average strikeout rate with the lowest aEV on the board (85.1 mph), which also gives him the fourth lowest xwOBA (.306). He faces the Giants (77 wRC+, 17.1 K-BB% on the road, 15.8 K-BB%, 9.9 HR/FB vs RHP, 33 wRC+, 22.3 K-BB%, 2.5 HR/FB last seven days) in one of the most negative run environments on the board.
Stephen Gonsalves was the fifth graded prospect in the Minnesota system with a 50 Future Value grade by Fangraphs in May with potential league average starter upside. A few weeks later, he was graded 128th among all major league prospects. Last year, he pitched mostly at AA with a taste of AAA. This year, 18 of his 22 starts have come at AAA, but his walk rate has nearly doubled to 13.4%. Good news is that he’s walked just nine of his last 118 batters with 27 strikeouts. Hopefully, he’s overcome those control issues. They could pop up again, but the Twins are putting him in the best possible conditions to succeed in debuting against the White Sox (split high 26.3 K% vs LHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Corey Kluber (.254 – 79.2% – 13.6 – 12% unearned run rate) has gone at least seven innings in five of six starts and has exactly seven strikeouts in three straight, but he’s the second most expensive arm at Fenway tonight. They have a sub-19 K% at home, vs RHP and over the last week.
Austin Gomber (.257 – 79.1% – 7.9) has not allowed a run in two starts, but walked four last time out and struck out just three the start prior. Although he did have a career best 19.6 K-BB% at AAA this season, he came into the season as only the 11th best prospect in the St Louis system with a 40 Future Value grade according to Fangraphs. Thus far, he’s missing bats at a league average rate, but despite his 85.5 mph aEV, he has the second highest xwOBA on the board (.378). The exit velocity does not mesh with the 11.5% Barrels/BBE (worst on the board) and though he enjoys a rare park upgrade and the Dodgers’ overall numbers against LHP are not very impressive, current lineup construction makes them a much more dangerous foe. Manny Machado did leave Sunday’s game, but this lineup is incredibly deep regardless.
Chase Anderson (.235 – 80.1% – 15.2) has allowed four runs in less than five innings in each of his last two starts, including four walks against the Padres in one of them. He’s allowed five HRs over his last three. His 85.8 mph aEV is one of the lowest marks on the board, which also does not support the 8.9% Barrels/BBE or all the home runs, but both he and Gomber have a ground ball rate well below 40%. The Reds are a disciplined offense, but even despite the loss of Votto, there may be more risk than reward here.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Hunter Wood could be followed by Ryan Yarbrough, which might be slightly interesting if that’s the plan because the Royals strike out a bit more with the same futile production against southpaws, but that’s if you trust the exposition by one Rays beat writer on Sunday. He’s also faced more than 16 batters just three times since June.
Felix Hernandez did not start his last outing, but did face 22 A’s after Paxton got hurt. He’s struck out just seven of his last 82 batters and faces a Houston lineup nearing full strength. He is incredibly cheap, but has done nothing to support placing any faith in him. His .391 xwOBA over the last 30 days is worst on the board.
Rick Porcello has a 29.2 K% over the last month with an 8.3 SwStr% nearly two full points below average. He’s also facing the Cleveland lineup in the worst run environment on the board. By far, the worst run environment on the board.
Jorge Lopez is a converted bullpen arm with a mid-90s fastball and above-average curveball, though his inability to locate made him expendable and that’s a direct quote from Fangraphs covering the Moustakas trade. All 35 of his appearances for the Brewers at AAA and the major league level were out of the bullpen this year prior to the trade. The Royals sent him to AAA for two starts, in which he struck out 11 of 30 batters, but his first starting effort at the major league level was a disaster: 4.2 IP – 6 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 3 K against Toronto.
Lucas Giolito has struck out 20 of his last 77 batters, but has also allowed 10 ERs over his last 11 innings and has a hard hit rate above 40% in two of those three starts. The Minnesota offense is not incredibly potent, but they are capable and difficult to pile up fantasy points against in a positive run environment.
Bartolo Colon was scratched on Sunday due to a back issue. As if you needed another reason to avoid him or roster A’s.
Home Bailey
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 6.0% | 12.0% | 15.7% | Season | 21.2% | 5.8% | 10.8% | 24.6% | Home | 22.5% | 5.3% | 13.4% | 14.1% | L14Days | 30.0% | 5.0% | 25.0% | |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 14.8% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 12.6% | Season | 16.3% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 12.9% | Road | 13.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% | L14Days | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 18.2% | Season | 20.3% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 18.2% | Road | 19.5% | 13.4% | 9.1% | 24.5% | L14Days | 19.2% | 10.6% | 34.4% | |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 14.0% | 4.5% | 14.3% | 21.3% | Season | 13.2% | 4.0% | 15.8% | 28.0% | Road | 12.6% | 4.3% | 13.5% | 22.1% | L14Days | 8.3% | 2.1% | 11.8% | 39.6% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 13.7% | Season | 19.7% | 9.5% | 15.2% | 15.2% | Home | 21.7% | 8.2% | 15.2% | 16.1% | L14Days | 19.5% | 14.6% | 23.1% | 7.4% |
| Chris Archer | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 27.3% | 7.1% | 13.9% | 22.9% | Season | 24.5% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 23.7% | Home | 30.4% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 27.9% | L14Days | 23.3% | 4.7% | 11.1% | 19.4% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 29.8% | 4.7% | 13.6% | 12.0% | Season | 24.8% | 3.4% | 13.6% | 20.4% | Road | 27.7% | 4.0% | 18.0% | 16.8% | L14Days | 26.4% | 3.8% | 8.3% | 29.7% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 10.1% | 14.9% | 21.8% | Season | 24.1% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 23.0% | Road | 18.5% | 10.6% | 17.0% | 21.2% | L14Days | 24.7% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 33.3% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 8.1% | 16.8% | 18.6% | Season | 17.5% | 8.3% | 15.0% | 23.6% | Home | 20.9% | 7.9% | 15.7% | 15.0% | L14Days | 7.4% | 11.1% | 28.6% | 20.9% |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | L2 Yrs | 27.7% | 7.3% | 13.9% | 10.6% | Season | 34.9% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 14.0% | Road | 27.9% | 7.3% | 14.3% | 12.0% | L14Days | 34.3% | 2.7% | 13.1% | |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 15.0% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 22.7% | Season | 14.9% | 7.3% | 17.5% | 30.7% | Road | 16.3% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 21.8% | L14Days | 14.3% | 4.1% | 22.2% | 37.5% |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | L2 Yrs | 25.8% | 11.7% | 14.3% | 12.0% | Season | 26.1% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 13.5% | Home | 28.2% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 6.8% | L14Days | 17.2% | 17.2% | 26.3% | |
| Jorge Lopez | Royals | L2 Yrs | 15.1% | 13.5% | 8.3% | 27.3% | Season | 16.5% | 13.8% | 9.1% | 25.4% | Road | 16.0% | 8.0% | 42.1% | L14Days | 12.5% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 33.3% | |
| Kevin Gausman | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 7.1% | 14.7% | 14.2% | Season | 19.0% | 5.9% | 15.4% | 14.1% | Road | 19.2% | 7.5% | 12.8% | 12.7% | L14Days | 18.9% | 3.8% | 9.1% | 19.5% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 16.0% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 16.5% | Season | 15.4% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 16.2% | Road | 13.8% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 22.4% | L14Days | 26.4% | 7.6% | 20.0% | 20.5% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 20.6% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 7.8% | Season | 17.7% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 11.6% | Home | 21.4% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 8.7% | L14Days | 18.4% | 6.1% | 17.4% | 24.3% |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 7.1% | 15.2% | 15.1% | Season | 18.4% | 4.8% | 12.2% | 21.7% | Home | 20.7% | 6.7% | 13.4% | 20.3% | L14Days | 30.2% | 18.2% | 50.0% | |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 22.0% | 5.1% | 12.6% | 16.8% | Season | 23.6% | 5.7% | 12.3% | 13.5% | Home | 21.7% | 5.3% | 14.2% | 15.9% | L14Days | 33.3% | 6.7% | 25.0% | 40.7% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Yrs | 22.4% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 6.5% | Season | 23.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 1.2% | Home | 22.4% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 5.3% | L14Days | 22.5% | 6.1% | 9.1% | -2.9% |
| Stephen Gonsalves | Twins | L2 Yrs | Season | Home | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Road | 22.7% | 9.2% | 16.1% | 19.0% | LH | 21.1% | 9.7% | 16.3% | 24.5% | L7Days | 16.0% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 32.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.3% | 8.3% | 13.6% | 12.9% | RH | 22.8% | 9.0% | 13.7% | 16.6% | L7Days | 22.1% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 20.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.4% | 9.4% | 14.6% | 18.4% | LH | 22.3% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 20.1% | L7Days | 17.2% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 15.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 22.1% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 25.9% | RH | 21.8% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 23.6% | L7Days | 20.4% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 27.8% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 16.5% | RH | 21.4% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 20.1% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.1% | 17.0% | 33.3% |
| Braves | Road | 20.5% | 7.6% | 13.4% | 18.2% | RH | 20.5% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 18.7% | L7Days | 19.0% | 6.7% | 11.5% | 28.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.8% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 16.6% | RH | 18.6% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 19.5% | L7Days | 18.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 23.0% |
| Mets | Home | 23.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 11.4% | LH | 25.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 12.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.2% | 13.5% | 18.5% |
| Astros | Road | 20.0% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 21.3% | RH | 20.2% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 15.7% | L7Days | 24.9% | 7.3% | 22.8% | 17.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.9% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 7.5% | RH | 20.1% | 6.6% | 13.6% | 14.8% | L7Days | 22.8% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 13.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.1% | 9.2% | 16.9% | 25.6% | RH | 25.2% | 8.1% | 15.8% | 18.0% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.1% | 13.6% | 11.3% |
| Royals | Road | 22.1% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 15.1% | RH | 20.1% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 21.4% | L7Days | 22.4% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 20.3% |
| Rays | Home | 22.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 16.4% | RH | 22.1% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 15.8% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 17.1% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.5% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% | RH | 19.6% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 12.3% | L7Days | 21.3% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 0.7% |
| Twins | Home | 21.9% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 21.8% | RH | 21.5% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 21.6% | L7Days | 21.6% | 5.5% | 22.1% | 24.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.5% | 6.6% | 12.5% | 14.9% | RH | 23.8% | 7.4% | 14.1% | 13.9% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 16.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.0% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 15.7% | RH | 24.9% | 9.5% | 15.1% | 21.2% | L7Days | 17.6% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 17.9% |
| Indians | Road | 19.8% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 20.3% | RH | 19.1% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 25.3% | L7Days | 16.3% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 27.4% |
| Giants | Road | 24.3% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 18.1% | RH | 23.6% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 18.7% | L7Days | 25.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 16.2% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.4% | 6.9% | 14.9% | 18.9% | LH | 26.3% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 15.1% | L7Days | 24.3% | 6.1% | 18.0% | 23.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 21.2% | 10.7% | 1.98 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 2.02 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 16.3% | 6.9% | 2.36 | 8.6% | 6.0% | 1.43 |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | 20.3% | 10.1% | 2.01 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 2.34 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 13.2% | 5.5% | 2.40 | 10.3% | 5.2% | 1.98 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 19.7% | 9.1% | 2.16 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 1.94 |
| Chris Archer | Pirates | 24.5% | 13.3% | 1.84 | 26.2% | 14.1% | 1.86 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 24.8% | 10.7% | 2.32 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 2.22 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 24.1% | 10.6% | 2.27 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 2.22 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 17.5% | 8.4% | 2.08 | 12.3% | 9.1% | 1.35 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 34.9% | 13.8% | 2.53 | 33.9% | 12.9% | 2.63 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 14.9% | 8.1% | 1.84 | 20.4% | 9.5% | 2.15 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 26.1% | 15.2% | 1.72 | 31.9% | 16.5% | 1.93 |
| Jorge Lopez | Royals | 16.5% | 10.5% | 1.57 | 12.1% | 9.2% | 1.32 |
| Kevin Gausman | Braves | 19.0% | 10.8% | 1.76 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.90 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 15.4% | 8.2% | 1.88 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 2.03 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 17.7% | 10.1% | 1.75 | 14.0% | 11.2% | 1.25 |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 18.4% | 8.7% | 2.11 | 23.1% | 10.5% | 2.20 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 23.6% | 8.6% | 2.74 | 29.2% | 8.3% | 3.52 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 23.4% | 11.1% | 2.11 | 24.8% | 11.7% | 2.12 |
| Stephen Gonsalves | Twins |
There really is nothing to see here among any of the pitchers there’s interest in. The biggest takeaway is that Rick Porcello is getting so many called strikes.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 3.51 | 3.87 | 0.36 | 3.51 | 0.18 | 3.48 | -0.03 | 3.12 | -0.39 | 1.59 | 4.35 | 2.76 | 4.34 | 2.75 | 3.47 | 1.88 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 4.71 | 5.06 | 0.35 | 4.71 | 0.18 | 4.80 | 0.09 | 6.25 | 1.54 | 5.27 | 5.89 | 0.62 | 5.66 | 0.39 | 4.33 | -0.94 |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | 2.89 | 4.79 | 1.90 | 2.89 | 2.00 | 4.26 | 1.37 | 5.40 | 2.51 | 2.35 | 4.55 | 2.20 | 4.68 | 2.33 | 3.95 | 1.60 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 5.19 | 4.78 | -0.41 | 5.19 | -0.55 | 5.13 | -0.06 | 6.08 | 0.89 | 7.22 | 5.44 | -1.78 | 5.51 | -1.71 | 4.80 | -2.42 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 3.97 | 4.76 | 0.79 | 3.97 | 0.89 | 5.27 | 1.30 | 5.38 | 1.41 | 4.74 | 4.61 | -0.13 | 4.85 | 0.11 | 5.15 | 0.41 |
| Chris Archer | Pirates | 4.49 | 3.80 | -0.69 | 4.49 | -0.80 | 3.70 | -0.79 | 4.46 | -0.03 | 5.13 | 3.41 | -1.72 | 3.31 | -1.82 | 3.35 | -1.78 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 2.68 | 3.32 | 0.64 | 2.68 | 0.52 | 3.31 | 0.63 | 2.66 | -0.02 | 2.36 | 3.76 | 1.40 | 3.64 | 1.28 | 2.81 | 0.45 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 3.83 | 4.05 | 0.22 | 3.83 | 0.18 | 3.91 | 0.08 | 3.88 | 0.05 | 2.89 | 3.96 | 1.07 | 3.79 | 0.90 | 3.77 | 0.88 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 5.62 | 4.69 | -0.93 | 5.62 | -0.87 | 5.08 | -0.54 | 5.45 | -0.17 | 7.77 | 5.61 | -2.16 | 5.84 | -1.93 | 6.94 | -0.83 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 2.71 | 2.86 | 0.15 | 2.71 | 0.25 | 2.61 | -0.10 | 2.37 | -0.34 | 3.45 | 2.53 | -0.92 | 2.37 | -1.08 | 1.06 | -2.39 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 6.33 | 4.97 | -1.36 | 6.33 | -1.51 | 5.58 | -0.75 | 6.08 | -0.25 | 5.40 | 3.98 | -1.42 | 3.49 | -1.91 | 3.68 | -1.72 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 4.10 | 3.91 | -0.19 | 4.10 | -0.45 | 3.88 | -0.22 | 2.04 | -2.06 | 5.40 | 3.48 | -1.92 | 2.77 | -2.63 | 3.63 | -1.77 |
| Jorge Lopez | Royals | 4.44 | 5.22 | 0.78 | 4.44 | 0.70 | 4.72 | 0.28 | 5.01 | 0.57 | 7.04 | 5.35 | -1.69 | 5.65 | -1.39 | 4.99 | -2.05 |
| Kevin Gausman | Braves | 4.22 | 4.16 | -0.06 | 4.22 | -0.15 | 4.42 | 0.20 | 4.00 | -0.22 | 3.82 | 4.74 | 0.92 | 4.57 | 0.75 | 4.17 | 0.35 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 6.15 | 5.57 | -0.58 | 6.15 | -0.37 | 5.79 | -0.36 | 7.03 | 0.88 | 6.04 | 4.14 | -1.90 | 4.12 | -1.92 | 4.50 | -1.54 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 4.87 | 5.17 | 0.30 | 4.87 | 0.58 | 4.88 | 0.01 | 6.60 | 1.73 | 5.48 | 6.30 | 0.82 | 6.3 | 0.82 | 5.90 | 0.42 |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 3.38 | 4.36 | 0.98 | 3.38 | 1.24 | 4.54 | 1.16 | 4.70 | 1.32 | 2.10 | 3.77 | 1.67 | 3.8 | 1.70 | 3.90 | 1.80 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 4.04 | 3.70 | -0.34 | 4.04 | -0.24 | 3.74 | -0.30 | 3.89 | -0.15 | 3.69 | 2.98 | -0.71 | 3.08 | -0.61 | 3.57 | -0.12 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 3.75 | 3.99 | 0.24 | 3.75 | 0.13 | 3.43 | -0.32 | 3.13 | -0.62 | 1.41 | 3.52 | 2.11 | 3.33 | 1.92 | 2.35 | 0.94 |
| Stephen Gonsalves | Twins |
Chris Archer has a BABIP from hell.
Mike Fiers has an 83.8 LOB%. Case closed. About a run of regression in all of his estimators.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.285 | 0.283 | -0.002 | 47.9% | 22.6% | 4.5% | 88.5% | 32.7% |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.315 | 0.305 | -0.010 | 42.8% | 22.6% | 8.5% | 91.3% | 38.1% |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | 0.285 | 0.257 | -0.028 | 37.3% | 25.5% | 10.5% | 85.9% | 38.1% |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.301 | 0.275 | -0.026 | 42.7% | 22.0% | 9.7% | 92.5% | 31.9% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.277 | 0.235 | -0.042 | 34.9% | 20.9% | 12.7% | 85.1% | 39.3% |
| Chris Archer | Pirates | 0.300 | 0.347 | 0.047 | 45.1% | 22.9% | 8.8% | 84.3% | 36.9% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.292 | 0.254 | -0.038 | 45.1% | 21.2% | 9.7% | 89.8% | 31.6% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.299 | 0.301 | 0.002 | 37.6% | 24.7% | 11.9% | 84.3% | 38.9% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.297 | 0.294 | -0.003 | 45.5% | 20.1% | 12.1% | 90.9% | 35.1% |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.282 | 0.275 | -0.007 | 35.7% | 22.6% | 13.2% | 80.3% | 37.7% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.296 | 0.319 | 0.023 | 40.0% | 25.1% | 6.8% | 91.7% | 40.2% |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 0.275 | 0.380 | 0.105 | 47.2% | 25.0% | 10.0% | 77.5% | 34.4% |
| Jorge Lopez | Royals | 0.311 | 0.301 | -0.010 | 45.3% | 25.3% | 4.5% | 83.6% | 37.5% |
| Kevin Gausman | Braves | 0.284 | 0.309 | 0.025 | 47.2% | 20.9% | 11.2% | 85.3% | 36.2% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.290 | 0.266 | -0.024 | 42.7% | 17.2% | 10.9% | 88.2% | 38.6% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.309 | 0.269 | -0.040 | 24.2% | 19.7% | 15.7% | 82.9% | 42.8% |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 0.274 | 0.278 | 0.004 | 38.5% | 17.6% | 12.2% | 87.6% | 35.8% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.289 | 0.283 | -0.006 | 45.3% | 19.1% | 8.4% | 89.3% | 34.9% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.302 | 0.296 | -0.006 | 43.5% | 21.9% | 13.5% | 84.1% | 34.7% |
| Stephen Gonsalves | Twins | 0.308 |
Chris Archer has a .347 BABIP. This is one aspect where the move from Tampa to Pittsburgh won’t help him. The profile looks fine, but he still allows a lot of hard contact. It’s not leaving the yard as much this year, hence the elevated BABIP.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.304 | -0.022 | 0.295 | -0.009 | 0.276 | -0.042 | -0.300 | 87.6 | 5.0 | 33.700 | 383 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.362 | -0.015 | 0.352 | -0.025 | 0.349 | -0.043 | -1.700 | 88.5 | 6.6 | 35.000 | 411 |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | 0.378 | -0.074 | 0.375 | -0.045 | 0.345 | -0.053 | 0.600 | 85.5 | 11.5 | 34.600 | 104 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.368 | -0.025 | 0.362 | -0.002 | 0.384 | -0.003 | -2.000 | 89.3 | 7.5 | 40.300 | 469 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.350 | -0.034 | 0.325 | -0.010 | 0.339 | 0.005 | -1.400 | 85.8 | 8.9 | 29.000 | 369 |
| Chris Archer | Pirates | 0.340 | -0.009 | 0.302 | -0.007 | 0.332 | 0.010 | -0.900 | 89.6 | 6.5 | 38.300 | 321 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.293 | -0.033 | 0.302 | -0.032 | 0.291 | -0.028 | -0.400 | 87.4 | 6.9 | 33.500 | 462 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.343 | -0.025 | 0.383 | -0.008 | 0.319 | -0.012 | -0.900 | 87.8 | 7.4 | 37.000 | 365 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.368 | -0.019 | 0.347 | -0.030 | 0.391 | 0.008 | -0.200 | 88.9 | 8.2 | 38.300 | 415 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.288 | -0.032 | 0.321 | -0.019 | 0.251 | 0.000 | -0.600 | 88.5 | 6.5 | 41.200 | 352 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.391 | -0.018 | 0.379 | -0.027 | 0.329 | 0.007 | -0.100 | 89.1 | 8.5 | 44.800 | 306 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 0.293 | 0.063 | 0.286 | 0.059 | 0.319 | 0.098 | -0.900 | 85.5 | 1.4 | 24.300 | 74 |
| Jorge Lopez | Royals | 0.374 | -0.041 | 0.387 | -0.087 | 0.311 | 0.023 | 0.000 | 87.7 | 8.0 | 40.000 | 75 |
| Kevin Gausman | Braves | 0.344 | -0.009 | 0.342 | 0.005 | 0.343 | -0.042 | -0.500 | 88.5 | 7.5 | 40.500 | 452 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.370 | -0.020 | 0.371 | -0.044 | 0.326 | 0.012 | -0.100 | 89 | 7.2 | 38.800 | 415 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.347 | -0.010 | 0.323 | 0.014 | 0.336 | -0.027 | -1.700 | 87.2 | 10.2 | 34.000 | 353 |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 0.348 | -0.029 | 0.357 | -0.031 | 0.371 | -0.076 | -0.800 | 89.1 | 9.7 | 37.400 | 414 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.320 | -0.025 | 0.334 | 0.006 | 0.321 | -0.076 | -0.600 | 88.7 | 7.3 | 36.700 | 439 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.306 | -0.020 | 0.329 | -0.009 | 0.260 | -0.045 | 0.900 | 85.1 | 5.6 | 28.200 | 394 |
| Stephen Gonsalves | Twins |
Note: Statcast searches are timing out again today so the Home/Away column does not reflect any starts made since last Monday.
Removing the opener for the Rays, just two pitchers below a .300 xwOBA and just two more below .320. Three pitchers below an 86 mph aEV, but two of them are extreme fly ball pitchers with a high rate of barrels, which really makes Zack Wheeler the only truly impressive contact manager here.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
There are some decent values on this board, but there don’t appear to be any great ones. We’re grading on a curve tonight.
Value Tier One
Zack Wheeler (2) had one of his worst outings in a while last time out despite allowing just a single run and is becoming expensive. However, he’s a great contact manager with some upside in a great spot.
Value Tier Two
Alex Wood (3) doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but he’s a high floor pitcher at not much more than an average price tag. He’s quietly getting his six innings in nearly every time out and has allowed more than three ERs just three times this year. The Cardinals pose a threat, but he’s also pitching in the most pitcher friendly park tonight.
Chris Archer is less than $8K. He’s facing an offense that diminishes his upside, but they’re without a lot of power in a favorable park. He’s a dangerous option, but with still too much upside for the cost.
Kevin Gausman may be affordably competent in a decent spot and tonight that may be enough, especially since he does have at least some ability to generate more upside than that.
Gerrit Cole (1) is an extremely expensive pitcher in one of the lower upside matchups on the board tonight, but it’s still a great park and a favorable run prevention spot. His strikeout rate is so much higher than any other pitcher tonight that he still easily projects for the top rate, especially with the second highest strikeout rate at Fenway tonight.
Value Tier Three
Derek Holland is facing the hottest offense on the board, but does so in a great park, in which they’ve been terrible this year. The Mets have also been terrible against LHP and he’s been one of the top strikeout pitchers on the board. Also realize that the three pitchers above him in strikeout rate are all facing extremely contact prone offenses.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Stephen Gonsalves is a really cheap SP2 option on DraftKings with some upside with a great debut matchup. The concern is that he has exhibited major issues with the strike zone at AAA this year, but those have improved over the last month.
Mike Fiers might be able to generate a few whiffs in a high upside spot. It’s still plenty dangerous considering the power on the opposing side and amount of hard contact he allows, but at least it’s not in Texas.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.