Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, July 9th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2018-07-10 01:56:06

Both New York teams are playing double-headers with late afternoon starts. The good news is that both major sites had the foresight to omit these games from the main slate. The bad news is that it one of the best pitchers in the league off the board along with another useful arm or two on what looks like a really tough slate. All 26 pitchers will be listed, notes on the remaining nine games.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Pitcher	Team	Team Def	SIERA L2Yrs	IP/GS L2Yrs	GB% L2Yrs	Park Run	Hm/Rd xFIP	SIERA L14	Opp	Opp Hm/Rd	Opp L/R wRC+	Opp L7 wRC+
Aaron Nola	Phillies	-9.5	3.59	6.2	50.4%	0.91	3.97	3.30	Mets	79	96	85
Andrew Suarez	Giants	-6.3	3.43	5.6	52.4%	0.91	2.99	2.86	Cubs	102	107	122
Anthony DeSclafani	Reds	-1.1	4.05	6.0	42.0%	1.10	4.84	3.51	Indians	121	104	81
CC Sabathia	Yankees	4.5	4.34	5.7	49.0%	1.04	4.42	4.51	Orioles	89	78	72
Chase Anderson	Brewers	7.2	4.42	5.4	37.2%	0.90	4.40	3.74	Marlins	83	90	126
Chris Archer	Rays	0.1	3.49	6.0	44.4%	0.94	3.15		Tigers	81	81	80
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	-5.1	3.08	6.2	47.4%	0.91	2.90	3.02	Padres	96	89	83
Corey Oswalt	Mets	-5.2	4.69	3.1	42.5%	0.91		5.89	Phillies	90	95	98
Danny Duffy	Royals	4.9	4.35	6.1	37.0%	1.04	4.81	4.46	Twins	96	85	82
Eduardo Rodriguez	Red Sox	5.4	3.96	5.6	35.7%	1.12	3.98	4.85	Rangers	84	100	71
Francisco Liriano	Tigers	2.9	4.71	5.2	47.9%	0.94	5.91	6.09	Rays	105	102	98
Frankie Montas	Athletics	2.4	4.64	6.0	40.1%	0.89	4.81	4.76	Astros	111	114	151
Gerrit Cole	Astros	3.2	3.68	6.1	43.7%	0.89	3.39	3.91	Athletics	120	109	139
Ivan Nova	Pirates	-5.1	4.17	5.9	47.1%	0.97	4.04	6.20	Nationals	89	96	121
Jefry Rodriguez	Nationals	-3.7	4.85	4.5	40.0%	0.97	5.93	5.29	Pirates	99	92	82
Jimmy Yacabonis	Orioles	-8.2	6.47	4.0	45.5%	1.04	5.44	3.38	Yankees	104	110	114
Jose Berrios	Twins	-0.6	4.22	5.7	39.1%	1.04	3.38	4.51	Royals	78	79	89
Jose Urena	Marlins	-0.3	4.68	5.5	46.7%	0.90	4.84	3.26	Brewers	93	96	102
Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	10	4.04	6.0	47.6%	0.91	3.96	5.87	Giants	109	100	54
Luis Cessa	Yankees	4.5	4.42	5.1	46.0%	1.04	6.22	5.89	Orioles	89	82	72
Luis Perdomo	Padres	-3.4	4.39	5.6	59.7%	0.91	4.18	6.31	Dodgers	106	109	140
Mike Clevinger	Indians	6.6	4.24	5.6	40.4%	1.10	3.76	4.88	Reds	97	97	102
Mike Minor	Rangers	2.6	3.76	5.7	38.5%	1.12	4.14	4.64	Red Sox	126	97	155
Yefry Ramirez	Orioles	-8.2	3.79	4.6	41.7%	1.04	3.74	4.01	Yankees	104	110	114
Zach Eflin	Phillies	-9.5	4.67	5.8	39.2%	0.91	4.88	3.59	Mets	79	96	85
Zack Wheeler	Mets	-5.2	4.38	5.5	45.9%	0.91	4.33	3.70	Phillies	90	95	98

Andrew Suarez has allowed a total of three runs over his last three starts (including one at Coors) and no more than two runs in six of his last seven. His strikeout rate is still a bit suspect, but the walk rate is below 5%. He’s got the third best SIERA on the board (3.43), which again, may be a bit suspect if the strikeout rate does not hold up, but one could hardly say he’s been bad and he does pitch in a great park. See that his xwOBA there is 49 points higher than his actual, likely due in large part to park effects. He does not have an ideal matchup, but the Cubs strength (split high 10.1 BB% vs LHP) matches up with his strength, while it’s not an offense with a lot of power in the first place, a feature which should be further suppressed by the park.

Clayton Kershaw worked his way up to six innings last time out, but still only threw 74 pitches with just two strikeouts against the Pirates. There was also a slight velocity drop. Not nearly as low as his initial DL return a while back, but this would be his second lowest average velocity in years (maybe ever if the graph would go back that far). I’m a bit concerned, but this is not a pitcher who really relies on velocity as much as others and he finds himself in one of the top run prevention spots on the board in a great park, along with one of the highest upside spots on the board (Padres 16.7 K-BB% vs LHP).

Danny Duffy has thrown at least six innings in four straight starts, but has allowed six earned runs in two of them with five strikeouts or less (against Cleveland and Houston). In those two starts, he also had a SwStr% below eight, though he’s been above 12% with a total of one run allowed (24 strikeouts) in the other three, all on the road. I think this is a nice spot for him. Minnesota is very similar to Kansas City in terms of run environment, but much more favorable to RH power, something that really kills him. However, the Twins don’t have very much of it at the moment (85 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 6.8 HR/FB vs LHP). He does have the highest xwOBA (.376) on the board tonight among those with more than two starts and that’s scary, but he’s down to .330 over the last month (still 42 points higher than his actual) and has only stumbled in the toughest spots over that span.

Eduard Rodriguez has seen his strikeout rate crater over the last month. The good news, if there is any, is that the low strikeout performances have come against either very tough and/or very contact prone offenses, while the SwStr% remains slightly above league average over that span, but he’s certainly taken a hit. He’s in the most positive run environment on the board as well against an offense which has been much better against LHP this year (100 wRC+, 22.9 K%), but they do have an 18.3 K-BB% over the last week. Perhaps the reverse split will help here.

Gerrit Cole has the top strikeout rate on the board (34.7%) by nine points over Kershaw and nearly 10 points over the next highest pitcher (Berrios 25%). His 26.6 K% over the last month is still second best over that span and the only guy higher has a single digits SwStr% over that span. Here, you really see the problem with the entire slate. Both is ERA and estimators are above four over the last month. He’s failed to go beyond five innings in two of his last three starts, but only three times this year, while he’s thrown at least five innings in every start. His .297 xwOBA is best on the board tonight (some of the double-header pitchers are better), but his .367 xwOBA over the last 30 days is near the bottom of the board. The matchup is really tough. The A’s have a 120 wRC+ and 15.8 HR/FB on the road, 109 wRC+ vs RHP and 139 wRC+ over the last week with a nearly equally K% and HR/FB over that span. This is also the most negative run environment on the board though.

Ivan Nova allowed five HRs in Dodger-land last time out and that’s really not even much of a surprise considering their LH power and his extreme platoon splits. Even with two outings with eight strikeouts over the last month, his strikeout rate remains below average over that span. The Nationals have some left-handed power too, though some of those guys have been struggling. His 89.8 mph aEV is really worst on the board among anyone with more than five starts who’s not coming off the DL tonight.

Jose Urena threw five shutout innings at the Rays last time out. He’s right around a league average strikeout rate and hasn’t walked more than two since that disaster on opening day. His ERA and estimators are all below three and a half over the last month with a .267 xwOBA over that span that’s best on the board for those with more than two starts. The Brewers are a good team with power (16 HR/FB on the road, 16.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but merely an average offense in a negative run environment and power suppressing park. They also have a 25.2 K% vs RHP.

Kyle Hendricks has allowed at least three runs in four straight and five of his last six with 16 HRs over his last 16 starts now. One more would tie his career high for a season. His .390 xwOBA over the last 30 days is second worst among those with more than two starts and he has an 8.2% Barrels/BBE on the season despite maintaining his standard low exit velocity (85.2 mph), which is best on the board tonight. His strikeout rate is down to 13.9% over the last month as well, while exceeding a 42% ground ball rate in just one of his last four starts. The good news is that might not hurt him here. The Giants have an 11.8 HR/FB at home, 15.7 K-BB% and 10.9 HR/FB vs RHP and 54 wRC+ with a 6.0 HR/FB over the last week. His hard hit rate has been below 30% in three of his last five starts despite all this mess and he may be able to fake his way through this start in a great park with a great defense.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.

League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)

Chase Anderson (.207 – 77.7% – 15.0) has a nice defense, so perhaps he should be exceeding his career .280 BABIP. He’s already nearing his career high for IFFBs and his ground ball rate is a career low 35.2% too, but this is ridiculous. The one thing I don’t understand is how he’s generated 17 HRs and 8.4% Barrels/BBE despite an 84.3 mph aEV and 26.8% 95+ mph EV. The other thing is that his spike in strikeout rate over the last month (which isn’t even really a spike with exactly five in three of his last four starts) is unsupported by a 9.7 SwStr%. He’s in a great spot in Miami (83 wRC+, 9.0 HR/FB at home, 15.9 K-BB% vs RHP), but is probably over-priced, especially on DraftKings. The Marlins have a team 16.9 K% and 126 wRC+ over the last week.

Frankie Montas (.338 – 71.9 – 5.0) has faced Cleveland and Houston (11 IP – 20 H – 10 R – 8 ER – 1 HR – 4 BB – 7 K – 56 BF), but otherwise, mostly the worst offenses in baseball (31.1 IP – 29 H – 10 ER – 1 HR – 9 BB – 21 K – 128 BF). He’s not missing bats. He’s occasionally walking people and the contact has been harder than we’d like to see (88.2 mph aEV). Plus, he gets Houston (3.3 K-BB% last seven days) again tonight, though with an actual park upgrade.

Mike Clevinger (.298 – 76.7% – 6.2) has increased his strikeout rate over the last month, but when you look at the game log, you see 21 strikeouts against the White Sox over two starts, followed by 9 total over his last two and now he’s an expensive pitcher facing a competent Cincinnati offense (11.4 K-BB%) adding a DH in a tough home park. He has pitched into the seventh in 10 of his 17 starts.

Francisco Liriano (.237 – 78% – 14.3) has a career 71.6 LOB% and has been above 75% once in the last decade. He shares the highest xwOBA on the board with Duffy (more than two starts).

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Luis Perdomo was banished to AAA in April, where he put up a 15.3 K-BB% with a 55.6 GB% over 11 starts. In his return to the majors, he walked four A’s, striking out only three of the 25 batters he faced with just a 47.1 GB%. In 330 major league innings, he has just a 16.4 K% with an 8.6 SwStr%, but with a 59.2 GB%. If he can generate a near league average strikeout rate, he could be a useful pitcher, though those ground balls seem to be rockets this year (91.2 mph aEV, 50.7% 95+ mph EV are both worst on the board). Oddly, Fangraphs has him below a 30% hard hit rate in three of his five starts (all on the road). He’s so cheap on DraftKings, you want to consider him in a nice park if paying up otherwise, but the contact authority along with the rough matchup (Dodgers 109 wRC+, 15.1 HR/FB vs RHP, and 140 wRC+, 22.6 HR /FB last seven days).

Jose Berrios should have at least been a great contact management and run prevention arm against the Royals (sub-80 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP, 7.7 HR/FB vs RHP, 23.4 K-BB% and 6.5 HR/FB last seven days). Of course, they have a split best 19.4 K% vs RHP, which potentially limits the upside of any pitcher facing them, while he’s not really an elite strikeout guy anyway. Further problematic is that he’s now up to 17 HRs on the season, five over his last two starts, in which he’s surrendered nine runs to the Cubs and Brewers. Those are two tough offenses, but that’s not even the worst of it. He walked six with just five strikeouts in those two starts and his velocity has PLUMMETED! Not dropped, but plummeted about two mph. We now have questionable contact management, with questionable control and a lack of strikeout upside for more than $10K and a pitcher who may be hiding an injury? I still don’t have him far below the other two $10K pitchers tonight though simply because everything is tough. Can’t we have any nice things today?

Chris Archer costs more than $8K and is expected to be limited to around 75 pitches against a team that doesn’t strike out a whole hell of a lot (21.8% vs RHP), though it is the top run prevention spot on the board (81 wRC+ and sub-nine HR/FB on the road and vs RHP).

Jefry Rodriguez

Mike Minor is in the worst spot on the board in the worst park on the board, while the Red Sox have greatly improved against LHP.

Anthony DeSclafani has allowed nine HRs through six starts and travels to face one of the best home offenses in baseball in one of the most positive run environments on the board.

Peripherals (Pitcher)

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Pitcher	Team	Split	K%	BB%	HR/FB	Hd-St%	Split	K%	BB%	HR/FB	Hd-St%	Split	K%	BB%	HR/FB	Hd-St%	Split	K%	BB%	HR/FB	Hd-St%
Aaron Nola	Phillies	L2 Yrs	25.9%	7.2%	9.9%	8.1%	Season	25.5%	7.3%	6.9%	4.9%	Road	21.9%	8.4%	9.6%	11.6%	L14Days	28.3%	6.7%		-2.7%
Andrew Suarez	Giants	L2 Yrs	22.6%	4.7%	16.1%	23.0%	Season	22.6%	4.7%	16.1%	23.0%	Home	23.6%	2.9%	16.7%	29.1%	L14Days	20.8%	3.8%	14.3%	-2.5%
Anthony DeSclafani	Reds	L2 Yrs	21.1%	6.2%	17.9%	19.7%	Season	20.6%	7.1%	23.7%	30.4%	Road	19.1%	4.8%	22.2%	25.0%	L14Days	22.5%	4.1%	33.3%	25.0%
CC Sabathia	Yankees	L2 Yrs	19.3%	7.6%	15.4%	2.2%	Season	18.5%	6.3%	10.9%	2.2%	Road	17.2%	8.5%	14.3%	-0.9%	L14Days	18.2%	7.3%	7.7%	7.9%
Chase Anderson	Brewers	L2 Yrs	21.3%	8.2%	11.7%	14.8%	Season	19.3%	9.5%	15.0%	16.7%	Road	22.0%	8.6%	6.5%	10.0%	L14Days	23.8%	4.8%	7.1%	20.0%
Chris Archer	Rays	L2 Yrs	27.5%	6.8%	13.8%	22.5%	Season	23.7%	8.1%	12.5%	23.2%	Home	30.3%	6.4%	10.5%	27.2%	L14Days
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	L2 Yrs	28.4%	4.3%	14.6%	3.8%	Season	25.7%	4.7%	14.3%	5.2%	Road	26.6%	4.3%	16.0%	-2.4%	L14Days	20.5%			6.5%
Corey Oswalt	Mets	L2 Yrs	13.7%	5.9%	30.8%	25.0%	Season	13.7%	5.9%	30.8%	25.0%	Home					L14Days	9.1%	9.1%	33.3%	25.9%
Danny Duffy	Royals	L2 Yrs	21.3%	7.7%	11.0%	19.8%	Season	19.2%	10.7%	13.5%	24.7%	Road	20.7%	8.5%	10.4%	16.3%	L14Days	18.5%	7.4%	14.3%	25.6%
Eduardo Rodriguez	Red Sox	L2 Yrs	25.2%	8.2%	10.4%	7.8%	Season	24.9%	7.2%	11.1%	7.5%	Home	26.7%	8.8%	8.7%	7.9%	L14Days	16.7%	6.3%	11.8%	10.8%
Francisco Liriano	Tigers	L2 Yrs	21.0%	11.6%	14.3%	13.2%	Season	18.7%	13.4%	14.3%	9.3%	Road	14.8%	14.6%	12.9%	8.0%	L14Days	17.0%	17.0%	20.0%	-2.9%
Frankie Montas	Athletics	L2 Yrs	19.1%	9.8%	15.4%	28.7%	Season	15.2%	7.1%	5.0%	36.9%	Road	17.7%	11.6%	17.2%	26.4%	L14Days	15.6%	6.7%		51.4%
Gerrit Cole	Astros	L2 Yrs	26.1%	7.2%	14.2%	10.0%	Season	34.7%	8.3%		15.7%	Home	27.0%	6.7%	13.6%	7.1%	L14Days	27.0%	10.8%	15.4%	20.5%
Ivan Nova	Pirates	L2 Yrs	17.8%	4.2%	15.5%	18.2%	Season	18.1%	4.3%	16.3%	18.0%	Home	15.8%	3.7%	9.2%	13.4%	L14Days	10.2%	4.1%	26.1%	27.5%
Jefry Rodriguez	Nationals	L2 Yrs	20.3%	12.5%	16.7%	14.7%	Season	20.3%	12.5%	16.7%	14.7%	Road	15.8%	10.5%		21.5%	L14Days	17.4%	13.0%	16.7%	20.0%
Jimmy Yacabonis	Orioles	L2 Yrs	11.4%	16.3%	9.4%	6.7%	Season	18.2%	18.2%	16.7%	14.3%	Home	13.8%	13.8%	7.7%	-11.9%	L14Days	26.3%	5.3%	25.0%	7.7%
Jose Berrios	Twins	L2 Yrs	22.1%	7.6%	11.4%	10.3%	Season	25.0%	5.7%	13.9%	12.9%	Home	28.4%	5.4%	5.8%	6.7%	L14Days	22.7%	10.7%	20.8%	28.6%
Jose Urena	Marlins	L2 Yrs	17.1%	7.6%	12.7%	17.7%	Season	20.0%	5.7%	10.8%	26.6%	Home	16.6%	7.4%	11.2%	17.9%	L14Days	33.3%	11.1%		30.0%
Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	L2 Yrs	21.1%	6.6%	13.8%	7.4%	Season	17.8%	7.4%	17.0%	8.7%	Road	20.1%	6.8%	14.1%	5.6%	L14Days	7.7%	7.7%	20.0%	-3.0%
Luis Cessa	Yankees	L2 Yrs	18.4%	7.3%	18.5%	11.9%	Season	23.1%	12.8%	14.3%	4.0%	Road	13.6%	13.6%	13.6%	-3.2%	L14Days	12.5%	12.5%	25.0%	8.3%
Luis Perdomo	Padres	L2 Yrs	16.1%	8.3%	16.3%	16.7%	Season	19.6%	12.8%	5.9%	23.9%	Home	18.1%	10.0%	9.5%	16.6%	L14Days	12.0%	16.0%		5.9%
Mike Clevinger	Indians	L2 Yrs	24.6%	10.5%	9.4%	16.1%	Season	22.2%	8.1%	6.2%	16.8%	Home	24.9%	8.9%	13.1%	13.5%	L14Days	18.4%	8.2%		28.6%
Mike Minor	Rangers	L2 Yrs	23.6%	6.4%	9.5%	17.1%	Season	19.4%	5.8%	11.5%	25.5%	Road	23.4%	7.9%	5.9%	10.6%	L14Days	18.0%	6.0%	11.1%	34.2%
Yefry Ramirez	Orioles	L2 Yrs	23.6%	7.3%	6.3%		Season	23.6%	7.3%	6.3%		Home	24.3%	5.4%	11.1%	12.0%	L14Days	20.0%	5.7%
Zach Eflin	Phillies	L2 Yrs	16.6%	5.7%	13.5%	12.7%	Season	24.3%	5.4%	7.0%	2.3%	Road	14.4%	5.3%	9.4%	12.9%	L14Days	23.1%	3.9%	6.7%	-13.2%
Zack Wheeler	Mets	L2 Yrs	21.7%	9.5%	14.0%	8.7%	Season	22.5%	8.6%	9.5%	3.2%	Home	21.5%	10.1%	15.1%	7.5%	L14Days	23.5%	7.8%		-23.5%

Peripherals (Opponent)

OpTm	Split	K%	BB%	HR/FB	Hd-St%	Split	K%	BB%	HR/FB	Hd-St%	Split	K%	BB%	HR/FB	Hd-St%
Mets	Home	24.1%	8.8%	8.6%	11.5%	RH	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	17.9%	L7Days	26.8%	11.7%	12.5%	8.2%
Cubs	Road	22.2%	9.5%	11.9%	16.3%	LH	21.9%	10.1%	11.5%	12.1%	L7Days	18.3%	11.2%	9.1%	11.7%
Indians	Home	19.6%	9.2%	14.5%	27.5%	RH	21.2%	8.5%	13.9%	24.5%	L7Days	13.4%	9.2%	5.4%	22.1%
Orioles	Home	21.7%	7.4%	13.2%	9.8%	LH	21.5%	7.5%	11.2%	8.9%	L7Days	22.1%	6.5%	10.4%	5.9%
Marlins	Home	21.6%	7.8%	9.0%	17.1%	RH	23.0%	7.1%	11.9%	16.6%	L7Days	16.9%	8.0%	13.3%	14.4%
Tigers	Road	22.5%	6.9%	8.9%	12.4%	RH	21.8%	6.9%	8.2%	18.2%	L7Days	23.5%	6.0%	14.0%	5.1%
Padres	Home	24.6%	9.6%	12.0%	19.4%	LH	24.4%	7.7%	14.6%	18.7%	L7Days	24.4%	9.8%	14.3%	30.4%
Phillies	Road	26.2%	10.4%	12.5%	9.9%	RH	26.1%	10.1%	13.9%	9.1%	L7Days	23.4%	10.4%	8.5%	18.0%
Twins	Home	22.0%	9.1%	10.0%	19.3%	LH	24.1%	8.9%	6.8%	11.2%	L7Days	23.1%	5.2%	12.7%	15.0%
Rangers	Road	25.1%	8.4%	12.3%	18.3%	LH	22.9%	9.1%	12.5%	18.6%	L7Days	24.6%	6.3%	10.7%	20.1%
Rays	Home	22.4%	9.1%	9.8%	17.0%	LH	23.8%	8.4%	12.9%	17.7%	L7Days	21.5%	10.0%	8.8%	21.1%
Astros	Home	20.7%	10.0%	12.8%	11.7%	RH	20.0%	9.7%	13.4%	17.3%	L7Days	16.5%	13.2%	16.1%	21.3%
Athletics	Road	21.5%	7.9%	15.8%	24.7%	RH	22.0%	8.4%	13.5%	25.1%	L7Days	18.2%	8.9%	18.8%	23.9%
Nationals	Road	21.8%	9.4%	14.0%	14.2%	RH	20.9%	9.7%	14.2%	12.7%	L7Days	18.3%	12.2%	15.3%	14.4%
Pirates	Home	19.0%	8.7%	8.3%	6.9%	RH	19.7%	7.9%	9.9%	10.3%	L7Days	23.0%	4.1%	9.1%	16.6%
Yankees	Road	23.6%	8.8%	15.6%	16.4%	RH	23.4%	9.5%	16.4%	18.4%	L7Days	26.1%	14.7%	17.5%	19.4%
Royals	Road	20.9%	6.6%	9.8%	16.7%	RH	19.4%	6.8%	7.7%	22.7%	L7Days	26.5%	3.1%	6.5%	28.0%
Brewers	Road	23.1%	7.5%	16.0%	11.8%	RH	25.2%	8.2%	16.9%	18.3%	L7Days	25.6%	9.6%	19.7%	34.0%
Giants	Home	21.9%	8.0%	11.8%	21.6%	RH	23.5%	7.8%	10.9%	19.8%	L7Days	17.9%	6.1%	6.0%	15.1%
Orioles	Home	21.7%	7.4%	13.2%	9.8%	RH	24.5%	7.2%	12.8%	11.8%	L7Days	22.1%	6.5%	10.4%	5.9%
Dodgers	Road	21.4%	10.8%	13.2%	19.0%	RH	22.1%	9.5%	15.1%	17.2%	L7Days	25.1%	11.7%	22.6%	18.7%
Reds	Road	18.8%	8.5%	10.6%	16.6%	RH	20.9%	9.5%	11.5%	20.8%	L7Days	19.3%	10.8%	13.5%	20.1%
Red Sox	Home	17.9%	8.3%	14.6%	18.6%	LH	23.2%	7.9%	11.6%	12.7%	L7Days	16.3%	12.4%	12.1%	26.5%
Yankees	Road	23.6%	8.8%	15.6%	16.4%	RH	23.4%	9.5%	16.4%	18.4%	L7Days	26.1%	14.7%	17.5%	19.4%
Mets	Home	24.1%	8.8%	8.6%	11.5%	RH	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	17.9%	L7Days	26.8%	11.7%	12.5%	8.2%
Phillies	Road	26.2%	10.4%	12.5%	9.9%	RH	26.1%	10.1%	13.9%	9.1%	L7Days	23.4%	10.4%	8.5%	18.0%

K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Pitcher	Team	K% Season	SwStr% Season	K%/SwStr%	K% L30 Days	SwStr% L30 Days	K%/SwStr%
Aaron Nola	Phillies	25.5%	11.5%	2.22	27.3%	11.6%	2.35
Andrew Suarez	Giants	22.6%	7.6%	2.97	21.6%	7.9%	2.73
Anthony DeSclafani	Reds	20.6%	8.2%	2.51	19.8%	8.1%	2.44
CC Sabathia	Yankees	18.5%	10.4%	1.78	19.6%	11.5%	1.70
Chase Anderson	Brewers	19.3%	8.8%	2.19	27.8%	9.7%	2.87
Chris Archer	Rays	23.7%	12.7%	1.87
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	25.7%	11.1%	2.32	22.6%	10.7%	2.11
Corey Oswalt	Mets	13.7%	4.8%	2.85	9.1%	4.0%	2.28
Danny Duffy	Royals	19.2%	10.1%	1.90	24.2%	12.6%	1.92
Eduardo Rodriguez	Red Sox	24.9%	11.4%	2.18	18.9%	10.9%	1.73
Francisco Liriano	Tigers	18.7%	10.3%	1.82	16.9%	8.9%	1.90
Frankie Montas	Athletics	15.2%	7.7%	1.97	14.5%	7.9%	1.84
Gerrit Cole	Astros	34.7%	13.4%	2.59	26.6%	11.9%	2.24
Ivan Nova	Pirates	18.1%	8.8%	2.06	19.1%	8.0%	2.39
Jefry Rodriguez	Nationals	20.3%	10.5%	1.93	22.2%	10.2%	2.18
Jimmy Yacabonis	Orioles	18.2%	9.1%	2.00	26.3%	11.9%	2.21
Jose Berrios	Twins	25.0%	11.4%	2.19	23.1%	10.4%	2.22
Jose Urena	Marlins	20.0%	9.0%	2.22	21.3%	8.3%	2.57
Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	17.8%	8.5%	2.09	13.9%	6.7%	2.07
Luis Cessa	Yankees	23.1%	11.3%	2.04	16.7%	10.0%	1.67
Luis Perdomo	Padres	19.6%	8.7%	2.25	12.0%	6.6%	1.82
Mike Clevinger	Indians	22.2%	11.3%	1.96	26.1%	11.5%	2.27
Mike Minor	Rangers	19.4%	9.8%	1.98	18.0%	8.6%	2.09
Yefry Ramirez	Orioles	23.6%	12.2%	1.93	23.6%	12.2%	1.93
Zach Eflin	Phillies	24.3%	10.8%	2.25	27.8%	12.3%	2.26
Zack Wheeler	Mets	22.5%	10.9%	2.06	22.7%	13.0%	1.75

Andrew Suarez had a double digit SwStr% for the first time this season and was above 9% for the first time in six months last time out. I struggle to accept an above average strikeout rate.

Eduardo Rodriguez had a 16.7 SwStr% in his last start, but previously below 6% against the Yankees and Mariners (four strikeouts total in those two starts). To make it even more confusing, the one before that was against the Mariners too at 14.2% with nine strikeouts, his high for the month.

ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Pitcher	Team	Season ERA	Season SIERA	DIFF	Season xFIP	DIFF	Season FIP	DIFF	Season DRA	DIFF	ERA L30	SIERA L30	DIFF	xFIP L30	DIFF	FIP L30	DIFF
Aaron Nola	Phillies	2.41	3.51	1.10	2.41	0.87	2.73	0.32	2.60	0.19	2.56	3.58	1.02	3.43	0.87	2.49	-0.07
Andrew Suarez	Giants	3.92	3.43	-0.49	3.92	-0.73	3.56	-0.36	3.15	-0.77	2.88	3.39	0.51	3.13	0.25	3.12	0.24
Anthony DeSclafani	Reds	5.08	4.22	-0.86	5.08	-0.94	5.77	0.69	4.96	-0.12	4.71	4.34	-0.37	4.28	-0.43	6.02	1.31
CC Sabathia	Yankees	3.02	4.33	1.31	3.02	1.44	4.21	1.19	4.80	1.78	1.99	4.18	2.19	4.39	2.40	3.25	1.26
Chase Anderson	Brewers	3.99	4.76	0.77	3.99	0.88	5.25	1.26	5.10	1.11	2.73	3.68	0.95	3.76	1.03	3.96	1.23
Chris Archer	Rays	4.24	3.92	-0.32	4.24	-0.42	3.80	-0.44	4.70	0.46
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	2.86	3.24	0.38	2.86	0.05	3.07	0.21	3.44	0.58	3.21	3.05	-0.16	2.68	-0.53	1.62	-1.59
Corey Oswalt	Mets	7.94	4.67	-3.27	7.94	-3.11	7.53	-0.41	7.47	-0.47	10.80	5.89	-4.91	5.79	-5.01	9.42	-1.38
Danny Duffy	Royals	5.19	4.96	-0.23	5.19	0.04	5.39	0.20	6.55	1.36	3.77	4.23	0.46	4.35	0.58	3.86	0.09
Eduardo Rodriguez	Red Sox	3.84	3.75	-0.09	3.84	0.09	3.71	-0.13	3.46	-0.38	4.23	4.44	0.21	4.57	0.34	4.32	0.09
Francisco Liriano	Tigers	4.03	5.26	1.23	4.03	1.01	5.27	1.24	5.60	1.57	4.50	6.04	1.54	5.61	1.11	6.31	1.81
Frankie Montas	Athletics	3.83	4.72	0.89	3.83	0.58	3.48	-0.35	6.27	2.44	5.40	4.89	-0.51	4.45	-0.95	3.86	-1.54
Gerrit Cole	Astros	2.70	2.88	0.18	2.70	0.37	3.08	0.38	2.12	-0.58	4.34	4.12	-0.22	4.12	-0.22	4.78	0.44
Ivan Nova	Pirates	4.48	4.13	-0.35	4.48	-0.37	4.66	0.18	4.82	0.34	3.52	4.44	0.92	4.79	1.27	5.40	1.88
Jefry Rodriguez	Nationals	5.52	4.85	-0.67	5.52	-0.11	6.05	0.53	4.61	-0.91	8.10	4.78	-3.32	5.16	-2.94	7.42	-0.68
Jimmy Yacabonis	Orioles	8.53	5.96	-2.57	8.53	-2.91	6.12	-2.41	6.70	-1.83	4.50	3.38	-1.12	3.01	-1.49	4.62	0.12
Jose Berrios	Twins	3.54	3.58	0.04	3.54	0.20	3.93	0.39	3.90	0.36	3.23	4.22	0.99	4.5	1.27	5.60	2.37
Jose Urena	Marlins	4.18	3.83	-0.35	4.18	-0.38	3.61	-0.57	3.86	-0.32	2.92	3.40	0.48	3.29	0.37	2.76	-0.16
Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	4.27	4.46	0.19	4.27	-0.02	4.80	0.53	3.80	-0.47	6.29	5.64	-0.65	5.3	-0.99	5.75	-0.54
Luis Cessa	Yankees	5.00	4.28	-0.72	5.00	-0.94	4.23	-0.77	1.67	-3.33	5.40	5.76	0.36	5.56	0.16	6.52	1.12
Luis Perdomo	Padres	6.86	4.96	-1.90	6.86	-2.07	4.04	-2.82	7.75	0.89	3.18	6.31	3.13	5.87	2.69	4.71	1.53
Mike Clevinger	Indians	3.11	4.12	1.01	3.11	0.93	3.19	0.08	3.50	0.39	2.51	3.66	1.15	3.75	1.24	2.38	-0.13
Mike Minor	Rangers	4.63	4.31	-0.32	4.63	-0.02	4.41	-0.22	5.95	1.32	2.53	4.72	2.19	4.7	2.17	3.72	1.19
Yefry Ramirez	Orioles	2.51	3.78	1.27	2.51	1.67	3.26	0.75			2.51	3.79	1.28	4.18	1.67	3.26	0.75
Zach Eflin	Phillies	2.97	3.64	0.67	2.97	0.76	2.92	-0.05	4.27	1.30	2.10	3.09	0.99	3.22	1.12	2.12	0.02
Zack Wheeler	Mets	4.36	4.14	-0.22	4.36	-0.28	3.67	-0.69	3.51	-0.85	3.94	4.34	0.40	4.11	0.17	3.43	-0.51

There’s very little to explore either here or with BABIP among the pitchers we’re interested in tonight.

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Pitcher	Team	Team BABIP	Pitcher BABIP	Diff	GB%	LD%	IFFB%	Z-contact%	Z-O-Swing%
Aaron Nola	Phillies	0.303	0.269	-0.034	50.5%	19.8%	13.8%	83.4%	32.5%
Andrew Suarez	Giants	0.301	0.323	0.022	52.4%	20.0%	8.1%	90.2%	36.4%
Anthony DeSclafani	Reds	0.297	0.258	-0.039	41.4%	20.2%	2.6%	88.0%	35.1%
CC Sabathia	Yankees	0.281	0.283	0.002	42.9%	21.1%	11.9%	89.3%	32.7%
Chase Anderson	Brewers	0.272	0.207	-0.065	35.2%	20.7%	12.4%	86.6%	41.7%
Chris Archer	Rays	0.265	0.324	0.059	43.7%	22.8%	11.1%	84.7%	41.1%
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	0.295	0.296	0.001	45.7%	26.0%	8.2%	86.7%	38.1%
Corey Oswalt	Mets	0.301	0.250	-0.051	42.5%	25.0%	15.4%	96.3%	38.8%
Danny Duffy	Royals	0.305	0.288	-0.017	33.0%	21.4%	9.9%	86.4%	39.7%
Eduardo Rodriguez	Red Sox	0.292	0.301	0.009	39.6%	19.6%	5.6%	85.3%	38.8%
Francisco Liriano	Tigers	0.287	0.237	-0.050	44.8%	17.2%	6.5%	85.3%	33.8%
Frankie Montas	Athletics	0.277	0.338	0.061	43.2%	28.1%	2.5%	89.8%	47.0%
Gerrit Cole	Astros	0.274	0.253	-0.021	35.6%	20.4%	12.7%	80.2%	37.2%
Ivan Nova	Pirates	0.299	0.289	-0.010	45.9%	18.5%	8.7%	91.1%	38.3%
Jefry Rodriguez	Nationals	0.287	0.263	-0.024	40.0%	15.0%	22.2%	84.7%	32.8%
Jimmy Yacabonis	Orioles	0.320	0.400	0.080	35.0%	35.0%	16.7%	97.1%	27.5%
Jose Berrios	Twins	0.303	0.243	-0.060	39.4%	20.2%	13.1%	85.5%	32.0%
Jose Urena	Marlins	0.292	0.299	0.007	52.9%	18.3%	10.8%	87.6%	36.8%
Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	0.272	0.265	-0.007	46.6%	21.2%	10.6%	87.5%	28.0%
Luis Cessa	Yankees	0.281	0.292	0.011	52.2%	17.4%	0.0%	83.3%	25.0%
Luis Perdomo	Padres	0.303	0.439	0.136	40.9%	33.3%	11.8%	83.0%	42.0%
Mike Clevinger	Indians	0.289	0.298	0.009	43.0%	19.5%	10.6%	82.9%	35.3%
Mike Minor	Rangers	0.301	0.279	-0.022	35.9%	19.9%	10.7%	86.5%	41.2%
Yefry Ramirez	Orioles	0.320	0.194	-0.126	41.7%	13.9%	18.8%	83.3%	39.9%
Zach Eflin	Phillies	0.303	0.286	-0.017	37.1%	22.3%	9.9%	84.3%	37.5%
Zack Wheeler	Mets	0.301	0.301	0.000	44.4%	20.1%	11.6%	83.5%	36.9%

StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)

All stats from BaseballSavant.com.

Player	Team	xwOBA	wOBA-xwOBA	xwOBA H/A	wOBA-xwOBA H/A	xwOBA L30 Days	wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days	Effective Velocity	Exit Velocity	Barrels BBE	95+ MPH ExV	BBE
Aaron Nola	Phillies	0.270	-0.018	0.304	-0.002	0.282	0.005	0.200	86.1	4.0	32.300	303
Andrew Suarez	Giants	0.327	-0.011	0.332	-0.049	0.310	-0.021	-2.000	88.5	7.4	37.000	230
Anthony DeSclafani	Reds	0.330	0.014	0.500	-0.231	0.336	0.000	0.700	87.9	8.8	36.300	102
CC Sabathia	Yankees	0.300	0.007	0.308	0.001	0.314	0.004	0.600	84.3	5.0	26.800	280
Chase Anderson	Brewers	0.342	-0.044	0.285	-0.019	0.311	-0.081	-1.400	85.9	8.4	28.500	263
Chris Archer	Rays	0.345	-0.022	0.300	-0.017			-1.100	90.1	6.9	38.000	216
Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	0.305	-0.023	0.261	0.006	0.263	0.001	-0.200	85.8	6.8	33.000	176
Corey Oswalt	Mets	0.411	-0.035			0.462	0.011	0.700	90.2	15.0	35.000	40
Danny Duffy	Royals	0.376	-0.032	0.329	-0.009	0.330	-0.042	0.500	89.4	8.0	40.200	311
Eduardo Rodriguez	Red Sox	0.298	0.001	0.306	0.015	0.317	0.014	-0.800	87.1	5.2	30.600	268
Francisco Liriano	Tigers	0.376	-0.061	0.381	-0.019	0.355	0.014	-0.300	87.6	9.3	32.200	205
Frankie Montas	Athletics	0.343	0.000	0.370	0.004	0.416	0.017	-1.000	88.2	5.7	39.700	141
Gerrit Cole	Astros	0.297	-0.038	0.294	-0.010	0.367	-0.048	-0.600	88.1	8.2	41.200	255
Ivan Nova	Pirates	0.360	-0.023	0.332	-0.044	0.317	0.016	-1.100	89.8	9.6	41.900	301
Jefry Rodriguez	Nationals	0.379	-0.025	0.256	0.017	0.430	-0.043	0.200	86.1	12.2	39.000	41
Jimmy Yacabonis	Orioles	0.441	-0.013	0.330	-0.016	0.325	0.092	-1.200
Jose Berrios	Twins	0.301	-0.023	0.263	-0.030	0.329	-0.008	-0.400	86.4	6.1	32.700	309
Jose Urena	Marlins	0.321	-0.024	0.335	-0.013	0.267	-0.021	-0.600	88.1	6.1	36.500	293
Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	0.349	-0.037	0.326	-0.018	0.390	-0.022	-0.800	85.2	8.0	32.100	299
Luis Cessa	Yankees	0.291	0.015	0.351	0.028	0.323	0.039	-1.400	84.3	4.0	32.000	25
Luis Perdomo	Padres	0.372	0.026	0.337	0.001	0.369	-0.060	-1.200	91.2	4.5	50.700	67
Mike Clevinger	Indians	0.307	-0.017	0.341	-0.024	0.287	-0.022	0.500	86.4	5.2	32.500	308
Mike Minor	Rangers	0.361	-0.032	0.297	-0.004	0.331	-0.077	-0.900	88.9	12.2	39.100	279
Yefry Ramirez	Orioles	0.245	-0.022	0.274	-0.012	0.245	-0.022	0.000	85.5	2.7	27.000	37
Zach Eflin	Phillies	0.294	-0.017	0.322	0.001	0.240	-0.004	0.100	86.1	6.1	33.900	180
Zack Wheeler	Mets	0.320	-0.023	0.341	-0.010	0.322	-0.053	0.800	85.5	6.5	29.500	275

Andrew Suarez has the worst Effective Velocity gap. We talked about this on Friday with Freddy Peralta and his extension. Does this mean Suarez gets the least amount of extension? Or does it have something to do with spin?

Clayton Kershaw is still managing contact extremely well at least.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

It’s becoming increasingly hard to rank these guys in tiers when the pricing is so diverse. I’m going to try something new here today instead. I’m going to give you top overall arms, top FanDuel values and top DraftKings values and await the feedback. The same disclaimers apply. These are merely my current opinion, which will be fluid throughout the day as additional factors become known.

Overall Top Arms

Gerrit Cole may still be the best or least highest upside pitcher on the board even at a severe reduction from what he accomplished earlier in the season. It’s a tough matchup, but in a great park. Making it even more difficult is that the top pitchers are barely usable at some of their current prices even at their peak. There’s probably going to be a day soon (and today might be that day with a full board), where I’m going to say that a certain pitcher is the top overall guy today, but he’s also unrosterable. That may even be the case right now, but who knows? Maybe he still has seven innings with 10 Ks in him.

Clayton Kershaw is still not what he once was and may never be again, while he’s also probably not exceeding, if even reaching 90 pitches, but he’s the rare pitcher with some upside in a great spot tonight from either a run prevention or strikeout standpoint.

Andrew Suarez is probably a decent pitcher, even if the higher exit velocity and lower SwStr% make him a league average arm and the park makes this a slightly better than league average matchup. There’s some value in his cost on either site.

Jose Urena is an affordable or even cheap pitcher, but a pretty decent on in a great park with some upside tonight.

Top FanDuel Values

Jose Urena

Andrew Suarez

Danny Duffy is cheap and has upside in favorable spot, but definitely does not come without risk.

Kyle Hendricks has been terrible, but still usually limits the hard contact. He’s now just $7K here and only a few hundred more on DraftKings. You’re hoping the few hard hit balls he allows are suppressed in this park and the defense takes care of the rest.

Clayton Kershaw

Gerrit Cole

Top DraftKings Values

Ivan Nova is probably too cheap on DraftKings. He’s not that bad. Only Perdomo is cheaper. I wouldn’t even consider him on a single pitcher site though.

—— This is my normal cutoff line on a more standard slate.

Eduardo Rodriguez has been more contact prone recently and is facing an offense that is more contact prone against LHP in a tough park, but at least he’s managing that contact well.