Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, June 25th
A little bit of housekeeping to start. This weekend, I realized that Seamheads.org three year park factors have changed slightly since the beginning of the season. Most of the biggest changes are for RHBs in terms of hits and power (I don’t know why), but for our purposes (overall run environment) there were a few small changes. Baltimore went from neutral to a bit more positive (.99 to 1.04). Cleveland went from positive to very positive (1.06 to 1.1). Detroit (1.07 to 1.02) and Toronto (1.04 to 1.01) moved more towards neutral.
Odd to see Monday afternoon games on the schedule. Two of them. All 24 pitchers for Monday are listed. Notes on the 20 night game participants.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | -9.1 | 5.09 | 5.5 | 45.3% | 1.04 | 5.31 | 3.12 | Mariners | 107 | 105 | 94 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | -1.3 | 4.34 | 5.3 | 40.8% | 0.94 | 4.02 | 5.53 | Nationals | 90 | 88 | 110 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 3.6 | 4.53 | 4.6 | 56.6% | 1.04 | 4.18 | 6.09 | Angels | 113 | 110 | 105 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.6 | 4.40 | 6.1 | 46.4% | 1.14 | 4.66 | 4.37 | Padres | 71 | 89 | 72 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | -0.4 | 4.59 | 5.5 | 32.3% | 0.90 | 4.90 | 4.23 | Diamondbacks | 87 | 81 | 87 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 3.5 | 5.10 | 5.5 | 38.9% | 1.02 | 5.09 | Tigers | 98 | 84 | 47 | |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | -0.7 | 4.45 | 5.7 | 46.7% | 1.04 | 4.41 | 3.00 | Orioles | 93 | 83 | 94 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | -4.3 | 4.25 | 5.8 | 47.3% | 0.94 | 4.21 | 4.88 | Rays | 107 | 102 | 95 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | -3.4 | 3.84 | 5.9 | 44.9% | 0.89 | 3.74 | 3.60 | Astros | 102 | 122 | 102 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | -4.1 | 3.90 | 5.5 | 49.7% | 0.91 | 4.07 | 3.78 | Mets | 82 | 98 | 133 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | -5.8 | 3.78 | 4.9 | 43.6% | 1.14 | 3.91 | 4.99 | Rangers | 97 | 98 | 103 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | -0.2 | 4.36 | 4.0 | 48.7% | 0.93 | 4.00 | 2.71 | Indians | 88 | 107 | 155 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | 6.4 | 4.38 | 4.1 | 54.5% | 0.99 | 4.38 | Phillies | 102 | 97 | 131 | |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 2.8 | 5.04 | 5.1 | 32.8% | 1.02 | 5.03 | 3.47 | Athletics | 118 | 107 | 123 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 1.7 | 3.53 | 6.5 | 32.2% | 0.89 | 3.97 | 2.82 | Blue Jays | 93 | 103 | 116 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | -4.5 | 3.73 | 5.1 | 40.0% | 0.90 | 3.60 | 7.70 | Cubs | 101 | 103 | 92 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 6.8 | 4.23 | 5.6 | 41.2% | 0.93 | 4.20 | 2.23 | Cardinals | 93 | 94 | 91 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 4.9 | 4.21 | 5.5 | 40.7% | 0.99 | 3.77 | 2.22 | Reds | 97 | 95 | 164 |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | -2.3 | 4.07 | 5.4 | 43.2% | 0.91 | 3.50 | 2.67 | Pirates | 90 | 93 | 28 |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | 4.1 | 4.71 | 5.4 | 42.9% | 0.90 | 4.07 | Marlins | 83 | 85 | 106 | |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | -2.1 | 4.56 | 5.3 | 41.1% | 0.99 | 5.23 | 5.18 | Braves | 95 | 95 | 125 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 2.9 | 4.08 | 5.4 | 44.1% | 1.04 | 3.85 | 2.47 | Royals | 81 | 87 | 47 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | -9 | 3.94 | 5.3 | 38.9% | 0.99 | 3.86 | 3.67 | Yankees | 108 | 112 | 106 |
| Duane Underwood | Cubs | 11.2 | 0.90 | Dodgers | 97 | 107 | 116 |
Blake Snell broke through when he was finally able to improve his walk rate, which he dropped from double digits to 7.7% this year through 14 starts. After trips to Houston and New York (AL), it’s now 9.6%. He’s walked 11 of his last 52 batters after striking out just one Mariner…after striking out 12 Mariners. From his plate discipline numbers, it looks like he simply lost the strike zone. Fewer pitches in the zone, fewer first pitch strikes, fewer swings and especially swings outside the zone. Let’s call this an aberration in two tough spots. However, is Washington not another tough lineup (with the DH today too). They have just an 88 wRC+ against LHP, but without terrible peripherals and a more extended lineup recently, which has led to a 110 wRC+ over the last week. Snell still has one of the highest strikeout rates on the board (27.3%) and is one-tenth of a point off the highest swinging strike rate (13%) with one of the lowest rate of contact above 95 mph (27%) by nearly five full points.
Dan Straily retired just four of the first ten Giants he faced in his last start, so he decided to just drill Buster Posey and be done with it. He’s allowed 11 runs over his last 10 innings after one or less in three of his previous four. After a three-start stretch where he pitched into the sixth inning three consecutive times, he’s not done so once in four starts since. That said, his strikeout rate is exactly league average over the last month. His non-FIP estimators are nearly league average. He has been getting hit hard enough to surrender 11 HRs in 10 starts in some big parks. Those Statcast numbers are just horrendous, but the Diamondbacks have an 81 wRC+ and 24.9 K% against RHP. You fear Goldschmidt and have some concern about another couple of left-handed bats, but there’s not much power in this lineup. They’ve been a bit better of late, but there are still strikeouts.
Jameson Taillon has not excelled from a run prevention standpoint recently (3 ER in 5 IP in two of his last three starts), but has reached 100 pitches in three of his last four starts now. He offers an average to above average strikeout rate with a ground ball rate above 50% and the lowest rate of barrels per batted ball (4.5%) on the board tonight. In fact, his .283 xwOBA is behind only Verlander on this slate, while Citi Field is actually a run environment upgrade for him tonight. The Mets have been hot, but that 133 wRC+ over the last week includes a trip to Coors and then a banged up Dodger starting staff. They’re competent against RHP, but have a 23.7 K% and 82 wRC+ at home this season (8.8 HR/FB) and watch out for the status of Brandon Nimmo, who left the game after being hit three times yesterday (once on the hand).
John Gant has allowed 10 ERs in 15 innings as a starter this season, but while striking out 19 of the 65 batters he’s faced with a 13+ SwStr% in two of the three. He has a 21.2 K% in 94 career innings (12 starts) and may be good enough to be a part of many rotations with less depth (or as the Marlins would call him…an Ace). The matchup kind of sucks. The Indians are one of the hottest teams on the board (155 wRC+, 5.5 K-BB%, 16.7 HR/FB last seven days), but he gets them at home, which is not only a negative run and power suppressing environment, it also removes the DH from the lineup, which is generally a middle of the order bat for Cleveland. The one standout negative for him today is an 89.4 mph aEV that’s second worst on the board.
Justin Verlander is the class of the slate in the best park. He’s failed to complete six innings just once by a single out in his second start of the season. He’s struck out at least five in every start and fewer than seven in just four of 16. His 32 K% and 13.1 K% are best on the board, while no other pitcher comes close to his .238 xwOBA. The Blue Jays will be present in this game too.
Mike Clevinger has certainly not been the most consistent of pitchers this year, but has pitched into the seventh inning in 10 of his last 14 starts and struck out double-digit batters in two straight (both against the White Sox though). Even with that boost, he’s up to just a 22.7 K% this season, though his 86 mph aEV is tied for best on the board and the guy he’s tied has spent most of the season in the bullpen. He’s in a favorable spot with the park upgrade in St Louis tonight, against an offense with a 30.7 K% over the last week.
Seth Lugo has struggled in starts in Arizona and Colorado (8 IP – 11 R – 8 ER – 3 HR) since dominating the Yankees, but did strike out 12 of the 42 batters he faced in those two starts. Just 12 of his 72 pitches at Coors were curveballs, due to the altitude (there’s evidence that curveballs suffer in that environment) and one was hit out of the park. It’s a pitch he otherwise throws 29.4% of the time (more than any other) with a .193 xwOBA and -3 average Launch Angle. That is the lone HR hit against it this season. He’s tied for the lowest aEV on the board (86 mph) and could bounce back in this spot at home against the Pirates, who have just a 19.3 K% vs RHP (split low), but are the coldest team on the board over the last week (28 wRC+, 19.4 K-BB%, 2.8 HR/FB).
Vince Velasquez allowed four runs (two HRs) in his last start against the Cardinals, but struck out eight in 6.1 innings. He’s completed six innings in eight of 15 starts this season and has the third-best strikeout rate on the board at 28.5% for both the season and last 30 days. Only four pitchers have bettered his .295 xwOBA. He faces a dangerous Yankee lineup in a park that’s more favorable than their home park towards RH power, but they lose the DH and Gary Sanchez tonight. Despite their 16 HR/FB on the road and vs RHP, they also have a 23 K% in both those spots. It’s a tough spot, one of the worst on the board for sure, but not entirely impossible.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Gio Gonzalez (.300 – 80.7% – 10.7) has struck out three or fewer in four of his last five starts and allowed 14 runs over 20.1 IP, covering four starts, in which he’s allowed five of his eight HRs this year (he’s allowed just 56 total over the last four seasons). While he did have a 61.5 GB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft% against a DH-less Baltimore lineup last time out, he’d had a 38+ Hard% and sub-league average ground ball rate in three consecutive starts leading up to that. The matchup is not terrible against a Tampa Bay lineup with some strikeouts (23.9% vs LHP, 26.2% last seven days), so it’s extremely close for a price that’s dropped below $9K on FanDuel, but there’s some concern here.
Mike Foltynewicz (.272 – 81.2% – 7.2) has not pitched in two weeks due to a triceps issue. He also has a 2.98 K/SwStr and costs $11.8K on DraftKings against the hottest offense in the league (164 wRC+, 6.8 K-BB%, 24 HR/FB, 40.7 Hard-Soft% last seven days). There may be an argument on FanDuel for $8.7K, where five pitchers are more expensive, but even that is less certain due to the injury.
Cole Hamels (.253 – 84% – 19.8) probably has some regression in his HR rate, but he has been getting hit hard, as his Statcast numbers convey. Seven of his 15 starts have featured multiple HRs allowed and to that, he adds a mere league average strikeout rate (20.3%) with a near double-digit walk rate (9.4%) over the last month. Yes, it’s the Padres (71 wRC+, 20.5 K-BB% on the road, 89 wRC+, 17.3 K-BB% vs LHP), but it’s in Texas and they do have a few bats who can hammer LHP. Some may elect to pay $8.9K or more for him in a high upside spot, but he’s rarely shown any upside of his own over the last few seasons. He’s surpassed eight strikeouts just once since August of 2016 and has only even reached that mark four times in total.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
J.A. Happ has done many wonderful things this year, which include a 27.9 K%, 3.31 SIERA and .296 xwOBA. While he’s pitching in possibly the most negative run environment in the league, he does so at a high cost against the best offense in baseball against LHP (122 wRC+, 20.6 K%) and one that has just a 3.5 K-BB% overall in the last seven days. He also does this with 8.9% Barrels/BBE.
Felix Hernandez in his last two starts against the Yankees (road) and Boston (home): 12 IP – 49 BF – 13 H – 4 R – 2 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 12 K – 51.4 GB%. His velocity has jumped back up above 90 mph too in these starts. His O-Swing% has been above 35% in three straight starts (30.6% season) and his Contact% has been below 80% in three straight starts (81.2% season). If we’re looking for negatives, his hard hit rate was 64.3% at Yankee Stadium last time out and the park transition to Baltimore is not a favorable one for him, but the Orioles have an 83 wRC+ and 17.5 K-BB% vs RHP this year. I’m not on board yet for a price of $7K or above, but I didn’t think I’d even be nearly interested. I don’t hate using him in a lineup or two on DK, if playing 10.
Kenta Maeda has walked eight of the 44 batters he’s faced since returning from the DL (just three strikeouts). Five of those walks were Cubs (11.5 K-BB% vs RHP) in his last start. He has the park advantage at home tonight, but we definitely need to see more at this point.
Jonathan Loaisiga makes his first road start in a high upside spot in Philly (26.3% vs RHP), but that’s really where the good news ends. He’s struggled to throw strikes in two major league starts (15.8 BB%) and 84 pitches got him through just 3.2 innings last time out, 91 through five in his first. The Phillies have a 10.3 BB% against RHP and a team 9.7 K-BB% and 22 HR/FB over the last seven days.
Shelby Miller returns from Tommy John surgery. Did it have to be against the Marlins first time out? It’s tempting for around $6.5K, but still probably too much here. He has struck out 28 of 81 batters in four rehab starts, but none above AA and he got lit up for eight runs in one of them before dropping back down to A ball for 10 strikeouts in 22 batters in his most recent. The even more frustrating thing is that he has just a 19.4 career K%, but did generate some excitement with improved velocity, though just a 20.2 K% and 9.6 SwStr%, before going down last year. If you think he’ll get through six innings, the Marlins have an 85 wRC+ and 16.6 K-BB% vs RHP.
Tyler Mahle has allowed multiple HRs in six of 15 starts. His 10.6% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board.
Joey Lucchesi finds himself in a tough park. In his return from the DL, he lasted 11 batters (51 pitches). His lone rehab start lasted 13 batters in high A ball. He hasn’t surpassed 71 pitches since Star Wars Day (May the fourth).
Duane Underwood is currently thought of as a future bullpen arm with Fangraphs calling his fastball lifeless when grading him the 22nd of 23 ranked prospects in the system (40 Future Value grade). The advantage he has against the Dodgers is lack of familiarity.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 16.2% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 15.9% | Season | 18.8% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 13.7% | Home | 14.1% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 11.8% | L14Days | 14.3% | -33.3% | ||
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Yrs | 24.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 13.3% | Season | 27.3% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 15.2% | Home | 24.3% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 15.9% | L14Days | 26.9% | 21.2% | 20.0% | 29.6% |
| Brad Keller | Royals | L2 Yrs | 14.0% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 16.9% | Season | 14.0% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 16.9% | Home | 12.5% | 8.8% | 22.2% | L14Days | 9.8% | 13.7% | 34.2% | ||
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 22.0% | Season | 23.4% | 9.2% | 19.8% | 29.0% | Home | 18.7% | 8.9% | 16.2% | 29.5% | L14Days | 25.0% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 37.5% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 8.6% | 14.2% | 19.6% | Season | 19.1% | 12.3% | 22.0% | 40.1% | Home | 21.7% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 19.7% | L14Days | 26.7% | 10.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 17.1% | 9.6% | 16.2% | 13.6% | Season | Road | 16.2% | 5.6% | 16.4% | 9.5% | L14Days | ||||||||
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 8.5% | 17.0% | 16.7% | Season | 19.4% | 8.2% | 13.6% | 21.9% | Road | 18.7% | 6.7% | 18.4% | 23.7% | L14Days | 24.5% | 4.1% | 14.3% | 25.7% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 22.3% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 11.5% | Season | 22.1% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 15.0% | Road | 21.9% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.7% | L14Days | 11.4% | 4.6% | 25.0% | 21.6% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 24.3% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 9.1% | Season | 27.9% | 6.8% | 13.3% | 10.2% | Road | 25.3% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 0.9% | L14Days | 23.5% | 5.9% | 16.7% | 27.8% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.5% | 6.3% | 11.7% | 10.4% | Season | 22.5% | 6.4% | 13.3% | 8.2% | Road | 20.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 10.5% | L14Days | 21.6% | 5.9% | 16.7% | 32.4% |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | L2 Yrs | 25.0% | 8.3% | 21.7% | 19.3% | Season | 25.0% | 8.3% | 21.7% | 19.3% | Road | 26.7% | 11.1% | 18.2% | 25.0% | L14Days | 27.3% | 18.2% | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| John Gant | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 20.3% | Season | 23.9% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 30.4% | Home | 21.8% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 11.5% | L14Days | 18.2% | 22.2% | ||
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 26.3% | 15.8% | 36.4% | Season | 26.3% | 15.8% | 36.4% | Road | L14Days | 26.3% | 15.8% | 36.4% | |||||||
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 15.6% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 23.6% | Season | 23.4% | 5.8% | 10.2% | 15.6% | Home | 16.5% | 5.1% | 11.5% | 28.7% | L14Days | 21.1% | -6.7% | ||
| Justin Verlander | Astros | L2 Yrs | 28.5% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 12.4% | Season | 32.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.4% | Home | 27.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 12.3% | L14Days | 31.5% | 1.9% | 14.3% | |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 25.6% | 7.1% | 13.9% | 9.8% | Season | 26.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 16.0% | Home | 26.8% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | L14Days | 6.8% | 18.2% | 6.2% | |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Yrs | 24.8% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 15.0% | Season | 22.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 15.4% | Road | 25.6% | 11.7% | 6.5% | 17.7% | L14Days | 36.2% | 5.2% | 10.0% | 6.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Yrs | 22.8% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 12.0% | Season | 28.9% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 12.3% | Home | 25.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 14.3% | L14Days | 33.3% | 9.1% | ||
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 6.4% | 11.7% | 16.3% | Season | 27.3% | 5.6% | 13.3% | 11.2% | Home | 23.3% | 3.9% | 9.2% | 6.9% | L14Days | 32.3% | 4.8% | 23.1% | 35.9% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 17.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 17.6% | Season | Road | 18.5% | 7.4% | -12.5% | L14Days | |||||||||
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | L2 Yrs | 20.6% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 22.4% | Season | 22.0% | 9.3% | 18.1% | 27.9% | Road | 15.3% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 21.6% | L14Days | 18.4% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 38.3% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 16.0% | Season | 25.9% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 24.2% | Road | 24.8% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 12.4% | L14Days | 29.6% | 3.7% | 16.7% | |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.7% | 9.1% | 17.4% | 20.0% | Season | 28.5% | 8.5% | 13.8% | 16.5% | Home | 28.0% | 9.1% | 22.2% | 19.3% | L14Days | 29.2% | 10.4% | 15.4% | 17.9% |
| Duane Underwood | Cubs | L2 Yrs | Season | Road | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | Road | 19.4% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 20.4% | RH | 20.8% | 7.0% | 14.8% | 17.2% | L7Days | 25.2% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 11.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.1% | 9.1% | 13.8% | 14.6% | LH | 22.4% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 16.3% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 11.6% |
| Angels | Road | 18.8% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 20.1% | RH | 20.0% | 8.5% | 13.8% | 21.5% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.3% | 15.3% | 20.5% |
| Padres | Road | 26.5% | 6.0% | 10.7% | 14.5% | LH | 25.0% | 7.7% | 13.5% | 17.6% | L7Days | 24.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 23.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.2% | 9.0% | 15.1% | 17.5% | RH | 24.9% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 19.6% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.9% | 15.8% | 17.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 24.9% | RH | 22.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 19.5% | L7Days | 28.2% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 17.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.6% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 10.1% | RH | 24.9% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 12.5% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.3% | 17.7% | 17.9% |
| Rays | Home | 21.7% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 18.7% | LH | 23.9% | 8.1% | 12.8% | 17.1% | L7Days | 26.2% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 4.9% |
| Astros | Home | 21.3% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 10.6% | LH | 20.6% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 17.5% | L7Days | 16.7% | 13.2% | 9.6% | 8.7% |
| Mets | Home | 23.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 11.2% | RH | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 17.9% | L7Days | 20.9% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 5.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 25.0% | 10.7% | 14.9% | 23.8% | LH | 23.9% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 17.2% | L7Days | 23.7% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 34.4% |
| Indians | Road | 22.3% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 16.0% | RH | 21.6% | 8.5% | 15.0% | 24.6% | L7Days | 18.1% | 12.6% | 16.7% | 29.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.4% | 10.4% | 14.3% | 9.0% | RH | 26.3% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 11.4% | 22.0% | 10.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 22.0% | 8.3% | 16.4% | 24.5% | RH | 22.7% | 8.9% | 13.8% | 25.5% | L7Days | 19.1% | 9.1% | 16.9% | 18.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 19.5% | RH | 23.6% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 17.8% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.0% | 15.4% | 25.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.1% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 15.0% | RH | 21.1% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 13.0% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 13.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.2% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 24.0% | RH | 23.4% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 21.7% | L7Days | 30.7% | 9.6% | 19.4% | 19.1% |
| Reds | Road | 19.1% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 17.2% | RH | 21.1% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 19.2% | L7Days | 19.6% | 12.8% | 24.0% | 40.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.1% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 15.7% | RH | 19.3% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.8% | L7Days | 26.3% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 8.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 21.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 14.7% | RH | 23.7% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 15.8% | L7Days | 26.6% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 15.5% |
| Braves | Home | 19.8% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 21.3% | RH | 20.7% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 18.3% | L7Days | 20.1% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 26.2% |
| Royals | Home | 18.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 25.2% | LH | 21.3% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 16.6% | L7Days | 23.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 11.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.2% | 8.3% | 16.1% | 17.3% | RH | 23.3% | 9.4% | 16.6% | 18.5% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.6% | 16.9% | 27.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.5% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 14.5% | RH | 21.8% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 16.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 11.9% | 16.2% | 19.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 18.8% | 7.7% | 2.44 | 14.9% | 9.5% | 1.57 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 27.3% | 13.0% | 2.10 | 27.9% | 13.8% | 2.02 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 14.0% | 8.6% | 1.63 | 12.2% | 9.2% | 1.33 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 23.4% | 11.6% | 2.02 | 20.3% | 10.6% | 1.92 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 19.1% | 10.5% | 1.82 | 21.7% | 11.0% | 1.97 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | ||||||
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 19.4% | 8.4% | 2.31 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 1.95 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 22.1% | 9.7% | 2.28 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 1.89 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 27.9% | 10.5% | 2.66 | 24.6% | 7.7% | 3.19 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 22.5% | 9.8% | 2.30 | 23.6% | 10.8% | 2.19 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 25.0% | 10.1% | 2.48 | 27.3% | 3.9% | 7.00 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 23.9% | 13.0% | 1.84 | 22.2% | 16.4% | 1.35 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | 26.3% | 12.0% | 2.19 | 26.3% | 12.0% | 2.19 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 23.4% | 9.9% | 2.36 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 1.95 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 32.0% | 13.1% | 2.44 | 28.9% | 11.9% | 2.43 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 26.6% | 12.9% | 2.06 | 9.4% | 6.4% | 1.47 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 22.7% | 11.5% | 1.97 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.14 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 28.9% | 9.7% | 2.98 | 33.3% | 11.5% | 2.90 |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | 27.3% | 10.4% | 2.63 | 30.0% | 9.9% | 3.03 |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | ||||||
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 22.0% | 10.0% | 2.20 | 20.7% | 10.4% | 1.99 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 25.9% | 11.2% | 2.31 | 27.0% | 12.7% | 2.13 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 28.5% | 11.6% | 2.46 | 28.5% | 12.3% | 2.32 |
| Duane Underwood | Cubs |
Seth Lugo has started four games this season with the following swinging strike rates: 6.7% vs the Cubs in four innings, 13.1% vs the Yankees, 12% at Arizona and 6.9% without the use of his best curveball at Colorado. It’s not enough to form a pattern yet.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense-independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 4.72 | 4.75 | 0.03 | 4.72 | -0.11 | 5.01 | 0.29 | 6.62 | 1.90 | 4.71 | 4.70 | -0.01 | 4.16 | -0.55 | 4.01 | -0.70 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 2.48 | 3.72 | 1.24 | 2.48 | 1.18 | 3.61 | 1.13 | 2.91 | 0.43 | 1.82 | 4.00 | 2.18 | 3.85 | 2.03 | 3.74 | 1.92 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 2.63 | 4.53 | 1.90 | 2.63 | 1.77 | 3.49 | 0.86 | 5.64 | 3.01 | 3.48 | 5.32 | 1.84 | 4.97 | 1.49 | 3.63 | 0.15 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 3.41 | 4.08 | 0.67 | 3.41 | 0.80 | 5.14 | 1.73 | 5.89 | 2.48 | 3.48 | 4.46 | 0.98 | 4.32 | 0.84 | 5.48 | 2.00 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 4.89 | 5.09 | 0.20 | 4.89 | 0.11 | 6.34 | 1.45 | 4.52 | -0.37 | 7.20 | 4.30 | -2.90 | 4.31 | -2.89 | 6.50 | -0.70 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | ||||||||||||||||
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 5.14 | 4.36 | -0.78 | 5.14 | -0.80 | 4.49 | -0.65 | 4.48 | -0.66 | 4.18 | 3.54 | -0.64 | 3.44 | -0.74 | 3.21 | -0.97 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 3.08 | 4.11 | 1.03 | 3.08 | 0.78 | 3.65 | 0.57 | 3.85 | 0.77 | 4.50 | 4.36 | -0.14 | 4.04 | -0.46 | 4.85 | 0.35 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 3.56 | 3.31 | -0.25 | 3.56 | -0.17 | 3.50 | -0.06 | 3.93 | 0.37 | 2.81 | 3.74 | 0.93 | 3.84 | 1.03 | 3.23 | 0.42 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 4.03 | 3.69 | -0.34 | 4.03 | -0.43 | 3.69 | -0.34 | 3.07 | -0.96 | 3.16 | 3.28 | 0.12 | 3.16 | 0.00 | 3.01 | -0.15 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 3.86 | 3.78 | -0.08 | 3.86 | -0.21 | 4.78 | 0.92 | 3.61 | -0.25 | 21.60 | 4.99 | -16.61 | 6.85 | -14.75 | 20.50 | -1.10 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 4.39 | 3.60 | -0.79 | 4.39 | -0.68 | 2.61 | -1.78 | 2.65 | -1.74 | 3.86 | 3.66 | -0.20 | 3.79 | -0.07 | 2.57 | -1.29 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | 3.12 | 4.36 | 1.24 | 3.12 | 0.31 | 2.87 | -0.25 | 3.68 | 0.56 | 3.12 | 4.38 | 1.26 | 3.43 | 0.31 | 2.87 | -0.25 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 4.95 | 3.90 | -1.05 | 4.95 | -0.89 | 3.65 | -1.30 | 3.33 | -1.62 | 5.40 | 3.47 | -1.93 | 3.13 | -2.27 | 1.50 | -3.90 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 1.60 | 2.95 | 1.35 | 1.60 | 1.91 | 2.49 | 0.89 | 2.09 | 0.49 | 2.78 | 3.26 | 0.48 | 3.82 | 1.04 | 3.57 | 0.79 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 3.84 | 3.82 | -0.02 | 3.84 | -0.14 | 3.22 | -0.62 | 2.50 | -1.34 | 6.10 | 7.22 | 1.12 | 7.4 | 1.30 | 6.30 | 0.20 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 3.00 | 4.01 | 1.01 | 3.00 | 0.88 | 3.20 | 0.20 | 3.40 | 0.40 | 2.38 | 3.68 | 1.30 | 3.77 | 1.39 | 3.10 | 0.72 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 2.16 | 3.61 | 1.45 | 2.16 | 1.31 | 2.87 | 0.71 | 2.85 | 0.69 | 1.04 | 2.77 | 1.73 | 2.75 | 1.71 | 1.56 | 0.52 |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | 2.85 | 2.93 | 0.08 | 2.85 | 0.20 | 3.14 | 0.29 | 3.66 | 0.81 | 4.07 | 2.58 | -1.49 | 2.33 | -1.74 | 3.27 | -0.80 |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | ||||||||||||||||
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 3.89 | 4.29 | 0.40 | 3.89 | 0.26 | 4.89 | 1.00 | 5.12 | 1.23 | 2.63 | 4.78 | 2.15 | 4.48 | 1.85 | 3.94 | 1.31 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 2.81 | 3.51 | 0.70 | 2.81 | 0.66 | 3.26 | 0.45 | 3.51 | 0.70 | 2.16 | 3.51 | 1.35 | 3.33 | 1.17 | 2.42 | 0.26 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 4.82 | 3.49 | -1.33 | 4.82 | -1.22 | 3.79 | -1.03 | 3.13 | -1.69 | 5.97 | 3.46 | -2.51 | 3.42 | -2.55 | 3.31 | -2.66 |
| Duane Underwood | Cubs |
Blake Snell has a .235 BABIP and 85.3 LOB%.
Dan Straily has a .262 BABIP, 79.5 LOB% and 22 HR/FB, some of which balance out others. It’s hard to say he hasn’t earned the home run rate.
John Gant has a 44.3 LOB%. His ground ball rate is higher. That number is just absurd.
Justin Verlander has a .220 BABIP, 88.9 LOB% and 6.5 HR/FB. There’s going to be moderate to massive regression in all of those numbers, but he’s still one of the best pitchers in the league, who has a career 8.3 HR/FB.
Mike Clevinger has a 7.2 HR/FB.
Vince Velasquez has a 65.8 LOB%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.326 | 0.341 | 0.015 | 39.5% | 24.8% | 9.4% | 89.4% | 37.3% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.270 | 0.235 | -0.035 | 40.4% | 20.9% | 8.8% | 82.2% | 35.6% |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.305 | 0.295 | -0.010 | 56.6% | 19.4% | 6.5% | 88.9% | 37.8% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.301 | 0.253 | -0.048 | 41.9% | 22.1% | 9.9% | 85.3% | 33.7% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.293 | 0.262 | -0.031 | 30.3% | 31.8% | 8.0% | 87.2% | 42.5% |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 0.276 | |||||||
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.298 | 0.297 | -0.001 | 45.1% | 22.0% | 9.1% | 92.1% | 33.9% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.280 | 0.300 | 0.020 | 50.4% | 19.1% | 6.7% | 85.1% | 33.5% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.304 | 0.254 | -0.050 | 46.6% | 15.0% | 16.7% | 84.7% | 41.4% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.294 | 0.296 | 0.002 | 51.1% | 17.3% | 5.3% | 86.0% | 32.8% |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 0.299 | 0.288 | -0.011 | 43.6% | 21.8% | 8.7% | 84.0% | 32.8% |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 0.285 | 0.282 | -0.003 | 49.4% | 16.9% | 7.7% | 82.7% | 35.1% |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | 0.280 | 0.409 | 0.129 | 54.5% | 31.8% | 0.0% | 88.9% | 36.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.288 | 0.298 | 0.010 | 28.4% | 26.6% | 18.4% | 88.6% | 34.4% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.270 | 0.220 | -0.050 | 28.9% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 80.6% | 35.1% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.293 | 0.331 | 0.038 | 37.0% | 27.9% | 5.2% | 83.7% | 36.0% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.284 | 0.285 | 0.001 | 45.1% | 18.7% | 9.3% | 83.6% | 34.6% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.281 | 0.272 | -0.009 | 42.3% | 22.2% | 14.5% | 83.9% | 35.4% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | 0.306 | 0.277 | -0.029 | 45.7% | 22.1% | 6.7% | 85.9% | 30.5% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | 0.275 | |||||||
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.295 | 0.294 | -0.001 | 38.1% | 25.2% | 8.4% | 83.8% | 36.8% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.295 | 0.313 | 0.018 | 47.5% | 18.4% | 8.1% | 82.1% | 31.7% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.302 | 0.308 | 0.006 | 38.8% | 18.9% | 10.3% | 81.0% | 39.0% |
| Duane Underwood | Cubs | 0.266 |
Blake Snell has a great Z-Contact rate and does not allow a lot of hard contact (27% 95+ mph EV) with perhaps some good positioning behind him. I’m not sure that keeps him below .250 though.
Dan Straily is an extreme fly ball pitcher, but one with a 31.8 LD% and the worst Z-O-Swing rate on the board (42.5%).
Justin Verlander has a career .283 BABIP, but has been below that number six of the last eight years and as low as .236 in 2011. That was his only time below .255. Defensive positioning and an elite profile may get him close to that again, but he’s unlikely to remain at .220.
Seth Lugo has the best and only elite Z-O-Swing% on the board. It’s not even that his BABIP is that low, but meet the Mets.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.382 | -0.004 | 0.348 | -0.016 | 0.336 | 0.084 | -1.800 | 89.1 | 9.1 | 38.400 | 242 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.301 | -0.035 | 0.296 | -0.030 | 0.281 | -0.019 | 0.200 | 86.2 | 6.3 | 27.000 | 237 |
| Brad Keller | Royals | 0.319 | -0.033 | 0.342 | -0.058 | 0.344 | -0.023 | -0.700 | 88.6 | 3.8 | 33.800 | 130 |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 0.355 | -0.033 | 0.351 | -0.023 | 0.363 | -0.032 | -0.300 | 88.8 | 9.4 | 39.200 | 255 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.439 | -0.073 | 0.325 | 0.015 | 0.458 | -0.042 | -0.400 | 89.9 | 12.4 | 44.500 | 137 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 0.333 | 0.037 | |||||||||
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.362 | -0.028 | 0.384 | -0.014 | 0.332 | -0.003 | -0.200 | 88.9 | 8.0 | 38.300 | 274 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.313 | -0.007 | 0.290 | -0.008 | 0.348 | 0.000 | -0.900 | 87.6 | 5.2 | 34.300 | 248 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.296 | -0.027 | 0.282 | -0.008 | 0.265 | -0.029 | -0.700 | 88.6 | 8.9 | 36.200 | 235 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.283 | 0.015 | 0.288 | 0.013 | 0.259 | 0.027 | -0.100 | 87.2 | 4.5 | 33.300 | 243 |
| Joey Lucchesi | Padres | 0.349 | -0.020 | 0.328 | -0.012 | 0.602 | 0.074 | -0.100 | 88.4 | 8.1 | 38.500 | 135 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 0.306 | -0.041 | 0.301 | -0.008 | 0.336 | -0.053 | -0.400 | 89.4 | 6.3 | 41.800 | 79 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | 0.353 | -0.026 | 0.353 | -0.026 | -0.100 | ||||||
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.347 | -0.040 | 0.364 | -0.006 | 0.357 | -0.152 | -0.500 | 89 | 9.2 | 40.400 | 109 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.238 | -0.016 | 0.288 | -0.051 | 0.251 | 0.020 | -1.200 | 87.7 | 5.6 | 32.000 | 250 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.315 | -0.002 | 0.286 | -0.006 | 0.449 | -0.059 | -0.800 | 86.7 | 6.0 | 32.100 | 168 |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | 0.296 | -0.014 | 0.271 | -0.013 | 0.244 | 0.013 | 0.400 | 86 | 5.1 | 31.500 | 273 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.290 | -0.024 | 0.322 | -0.017 | 0.226 | -0.037 | -0.500 | 87.8 | 7.2 | 32.800 | 195 |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | 0.291 | -0.030 | 0.263 | -0.028 | 0.276 | 0.003 | -0.800 | 86 | 7.7 | 33.600 | 143 |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | 0.242 | -0.001 | |||||||||
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.349 | -0.011 | 0.369 | -0.041 | 0.337 | -0.016 | 0.000 | 87.9 | 10.6 | 41.100 | 236 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.304 | -0.007 | 0.300 | 0.007 | 0.297 | -0.008 | -0.500 | 89.4 | 6.8 | 37.900 | 219 |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | 0.295 | 0.022 | 0.337 | 0.037 | 0.310 | -0.017 | 0.000 | 88.4 | 7.0 | 37.100 | 213 |
| Duane Underwood | Cubs |
Dan Straily turned most of the league into Aaron Judge. Nobody is even close to most of his numbers.
John Gant has an 89.4 mph aEV and 41.8% 95+ mph EV that’s quite high, but may be masked by Straily’s awful numbers.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This is an interesting board without a lot of high upside in great spots behind Verlander, but some interesting and potentially inaccurate pricing (that’s what we’re always looking for obviously). There are a few guys who could be top five overall pitchers that I’m leaving off the board for various reasons (recent injury, cost or both). These include J.A. Happ, Mike Foltynewicz and Kenta Maeda if they all are their best selves tonight, but there’s just enough reason to wonder if they may not.
Value Tier One
Jameson Taillon (2t) is not going to go off and put up 30 DK points most likely. He does offer slightly above league average strikeout rate with a ground ball rate above 50% and the second lowest xwOBA on the board in a decent spot (better without Nimmo) for less than $8K though. Despite lasting just five innings in two of his last three starts, the pitch count has been increasing, giving him a decent shot at more than six innings tonight.
Value Tier Two
Justin Verlander (1) is the top pitcher on the board by a mile, but is incredibly expensive, nearly $2K more than any other pitcher on FanDuel. There are enough low priced SP2 options with some upside on DK to make it work though.
Value Tier Three
Seth Lugo may be a reasonable roster on DraftKings as well for $7.1K, but costs just $5.9K on FanDuel. Players may jump off him due to his last two starts, but he was still missing bats in Arizona and had his best weapon essentially removed at Coors. The Pirates are a contact prone team, but an ice cold one with a strikeout spike over the last week. While I’m not entirely sold that the rotation is a better spot for him than a multi-inning weapon out of the pen with just the one dominant pitch, there should be some value in this spot.
Vince Velasquez retains some value here, especially for just $6.6K on DraftKings, due to a low strand rate. Everyone else in his strikeout range (except Lugo, who’s only started four games) costs more than 50% more on that site.
John Gant is not in a great spot against Cleveland, but he does get them at home, which should make a difference. He’s shown enough to be more than a $5K pitcher. The peripherals are not bad at all, though the contact authority is not ideal.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Dan Straily gets hammered, but can also miss a few bats and costs the minimum on DraftKings in what may be one of the top park adjusted spots on the board. He makes a reasonable complement with some upside to someone like Verlander in GPPs. Please do not use him on FanDuel.
Mike Clevinger (2t) is plenty expensive for a guy with a 22.7 K% and it took two straight double-digit strikeout performances against the White Sox to get him there. That said, he’s been only surpassed and just barely by Verlander in innings per start this year and the matchup in St Louis is favorable.
Blake Snell (4) has walked the park in consecutive tough spots. Although not the Yankees or Astros, this may be another one. Cautious optimism for a price that reaches $10K on DraftKings, but is not nearly the highest on the board today (fifth most expensive on DraftKings, third on FanDuel).
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.