Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, August 27th
Apparently gone are the large Saturday afternoon slates as we cover another 11 game night tonight. It’s a very strong board with nine of 22 pitchers priced above $9K on at least one site tonight. There’s not a lot of upside on the low end, but there may be a few guys that may be able to at least cover a low price tag.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Editor’s Note: Albert Suarez is starting in place of Jake Peavy on Saturday, and Alex Reyes will replace Mike Leake, making his first major-league start.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 5.2 | 4.62 | 5.3 | 0.67 | 1.07 | 4.3 | 3.9 | CLE | 85 | 104 | 63 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | -0.1 | 4.01 | 6. | 1.25 | 1.07 | 4.37 | 3.53 | ARI | 94 | 87 | 74 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | -5.4 | 4.33 | 5.4 | 0.78 | 0.99 | 5.78 | 5.37 | CHW | 92 | 95 | 109 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | -2.4 | 4.75 | 5.01 | 1.16 | 1.01 | 4.35 | 5.75 | HOU | 97 | 104 | 105 |
| Brett Oberholtzer | ANA | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.01 | 1.19 | 1.01 | 4.74 | 4.49 | DET | 107 | 101 | 149 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 5.9 | 2.92 | 6.28 | 1.7 | 1.07 | 2.76 | 2.05 | TEX | 102 | 95 | 74 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -5.2 | 3.75 | 5.8 | 3.92 | 1 | 4.07 | 4.73 | FLA | 89 | 96 | 52 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 8.2 | 3.21 | 6.8 | 2.89 | 1.01 | 2.53 | 2.97 | TAM | 101 | 95 | 101 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 5.6 | 4.02 | 5.63 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 3.78 | 5.06 | BOS | 122 | 111 | 76 |
| David Price | BOS | 3.2 | 3.36 | 6.74 | 1.21 | 1.07 | 3.11 | 3.84 | KAN | 79 | 100 | 95 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 4.5 | 4.27 | 5.61 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 4.56 | 1.27 | ATL | 82 | 82 | 115 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -3.6 | 3.38 | 6.17 | 2.27 | 1.05 | 2.92 | 3.02 | MIL | 95 | 87 | 94 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | -2 | 4.11 | 5.54 | 1.16 | 0.87 | 4.3 | 3.04 | NYM | 97 | 91 | 129 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -7.9 | 4.39 | 5.75 | 1.62 | 1.05 | 4.03 | 4.2 | PIT | 87 | 93 | 63 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 2.5 | 3.73 | 6.51 | 1.27 | 0.99 | 3.62 | 4.33 | SEA | 100 | 101 | 85 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 3.6 | 5.07 | 5.29 | 1.49 | 1 | 5.55 | 4.92 | SDG | 81 | 81 | 71 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | -6.9 | 3.95 | 6.26 | 1.73 | 1.01 | 4 | 3.81 | ANA | 97 | 98 | 95 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -0.2 | 4.31 | 5.59 | 0.92 | 0.89 | 4.08 | 3.72 | SFO | 110 | 99 | 75 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -7.2 | 4.03 | 6.21 | 1.99 | 0.97 | 3.94 | 3.07 | OAK | 96 | 91 | 77 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | -2.3 | 2.92 | 6.19 | 1.62 | 0.87 | 2.53 | 3.15 | PHI | 88 | 83 | 78 |
| Zachary Neal | OAK | -10.1 | 4.4 | 4.78 | 1.88 | 0.97 | 4.07 | 5.17 | STL | 105 | 111 | 145 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -8.8 | 4.29 | 5.37 | 1.64 | 1.07 | 4.14 | 4.63 | CIN | 81 | 88 | 115 |
Carlos Carrasco is on fire. He’s pitched 28.2 innings over his last four starts, striking out 37 of 112 batters, walking just two for an incredible 31.3 K-BB%. A 37.5 Hard% is not even that much a concern with peripherals that strong. He has not struck out fewer than eight or pitched less than 6.2 innings in any of these four starts. While these starts have come against some of the weaker offenses in the AL (OAK, CWS, LAA, NYY), it’s also three of the least strikeout prone offenses in there. We can call this a bit of a downgrade in Texas tonight in a dangerous park.
Clayton Richard hasn’t been awful in his two starts, but is not a good pitcher even with a 21.4 K% over the last month. We know he’s not a good pitcher, but he’s facing an offense with a 5.1 HR/FB and 18.9 Hard% over the last week that is trying to replace Stanton with Francoeur. The Marlins have a 22.5 K% vs LHP with just a 9.9 HR/FB at home.
Dallas Keuchel has struck out exactly seven in each of his last three starts, going at least eight innings twice with a 65.5 GB% in August. Even though he allowed six runs in one of those starts, it’s as close to last year’s version of the AL Cy Young winner as we’ve seen. While Tampa Bay would appear a neutral matchup here, they’ve really struggled against LHP over the last month to the point where they are now below average against them with a 26.0 K% and 10.9 HR/FB.
David Price has gone eight innings with eight strikeouts in two of his last three starts, the last against Tampa Bay. While we can hope, again, that it’s the starts of something, we’ve been hoping that all year. In fact, his strikeout rate has been just average over the last month with estimators at four as he moves into the last quarter of an incredibly inconsistent and difficult season. His hard hit rate has been above 30% in each of his last 12 starts as he takes on the worst road offense in baseball (15.3 K-BB%, 10.7 HR/FB), but they have been decent against LHP and as he has learned this season, Fenway is a tough park for LHPs.
Jake Peavy has pitched just eight innings in eight relief appearances in August, last starting a game on July 30th, so he’s not that far away from being stretched out enough to throw potentially six innings if things go well and there is reason to expect that it might at home against the Braves. Let’s not spend any more time trying to convince ourselves he’s still a good pitcher, but he does have a league average strikeout rate this year. We’re here for one of the top matchups on the board. The Braves have very little power in a park that destroys it.
Jameson Taillon has gone at least six innings in each of his last eight starts, including eight in two of his last three. He’s struck out batters at a league average rate with nearly immaculate control, which has him at a 17.2 K-BB%. While his hard contact rate is a bit above league average (32.3%), he combines his strong peripherals with a 54.9 GB%. Ground balls are kind of difficult to hit out of the park, which makes a trip to Milwaukee feel less dangerous. He entirely takes away one of their weapons (9.8 BB%) and makes it more difficult for one of their other weapons (16.3 HR/FB at home), but should retain the benefits of a 25.4 K% vs RHP.
Noah Syndergaard seems to struggle in day games with tons of foul balls, but continues to dominate at night. It must be a body clock thing. He threw eight shutout innings in San Francisco in his last start, striking out six (which is a lot against the Giants) after striking out eight Diamondbacks in Arizona. He has the highest strikeout rate on the board tonight, by a fair margin and has only had a SwStr below 13% twice in his last 14 starts for all the talk of his struggles. He also may have the top matchup on the board, facing the Phillies at home. They have a 15.0 K-BB% vs RHP with a 28.9 Hard%.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Anthony DeSclafani (.311 – 78.7% – 11.0) has had a decent season, though his ERA might paint him as an All-Star. His 18.1 K-BB% since the break may indeed be All-Star quality, but it comes with an increase in hard contact (33.1%), which is concerning with a 1.07 GB/FB in a dangerous park tonight. He doesn’t miss our list by much tonight though.
Jose Quintana (.283 – 81.4 – 8.5) has seen his strikeout rate drop and his season rate should even further, but his ERA has remained below three due to a high strand rate even if we give him a HR rate that’s exactly his career average, though HRs have skyrocketed around the league this year.
Michael Fulmer (.254 – 81.8% – 11.7) followed up a nine strikeout performance in a shutout, by striking out just one batter in his last start against the Red Sox, while his overall strikeout rate is way down over the last month. Though Verlander had one of his best strikeout games in a month against them, it still probably won’t help that he’s facing the lowest strikeout rate in baseball (15.9% vs RHP).
Danny Duffy (.275 – 84.1% – 9.4) has struck out more than six just once in his last seven starts with an 88.8 LOB%. He has gone at least 6.2 innings in six of them though. He may also have tonight’s worst matchup in Boston for $10K.
Blake Snell (.335 – 73.2% – 4.8) is striking out a lot of batters, but has just a 9.9 K-BB% due to a 13.6 BB% that’s kept him under six innings in nine of his 13 starts and each of his last five, while his HR rate is unsustainably low as well. He’s in a spot that could garner some strikeouts, but potentially many walks as well against an offense with a lot of RH power (15.4 HR/FB vs LHP).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jeremy Hellickson has been a perfectly average pitcher at a perfectly average cost tonight. It appears to be an overall favorable spot in a negative run environment against an offense with a 22 K% vs RHP, but he’s a fly ball pitcher facing a hot offense with some power. I don’t really mind him at all, but like several pitchers more tonight.
Mike Foltynewicz is affordable and strikes out batters at a league average rate in a nice run prevention spot at a low cost, but it’s also a low strikeout, high walk spot. The Giants have a 7.9 K-BB% vs RHP and an even better 7.0 K-BB% at home.
Zack Godley has had a below average SwStr% in each of his last two starts after being moved back to the rotation, so perhaps we shouldn’t jump the gun on his high overall rate. Contact has been a disaster as he had a 60.0 Hard-Soft% against the Braves, which followed just a 4.4 Soft% against the Mets.
Alex Reyes got the call for Mike Leake very late last night. Expected to be the minimum on DraftKings (I don’t know why I expected that), he’s actually $7.4K. Despite being an incredibly talented flame thrower, he’s pitched in relief in all five of his major league outings (61.1 GB% – 37.1 K% – 11.7 SwStr%), most recently throwing multiple innings just four days ago. I can’t see any way they allow him to get anywhere deep enough to cover that price.
Jimmy Nelson has 15 unearned runs this season, 18.75% of his total or his ERA would be right around his estimators. In the past, we might consider this a reasonable spot for him against an offense that leans heavily right-handed, but he’s solved his previously large splits problem. He’s just bad against everyone now.
A.J. Griffin has occasionally missed more bats than you’d expect him to, bringing it at 87.6 mph on average, but he also has a 0.67 GB/FB with a 38.1 Hard% in a dangerous, leading to 19 HRs in just 90 innings.
Zachary Neal has pitched 39.1 major league innings (four starts) with just a 1.2 BB%, yet he has a SwStr% higher than his K%. I can’t imagine how the hell that happens! He’s had very low strikeout rates in the minors though, so I’m guessing it’s the SwStr% that drops significantly. There’s no interest in him in St Louis.
Brett Oberholtzer makes his first start of the season after 29 appearances out of the bullpen, mostly for the Phillies before coming over the Angels this month. He’s pitched a high of four innings twice this season, the last time on June 8th. He’s not in a good spot tonight against a lineup that can stack entirely RH against him with competence.
Ariel Miranda has a fine 13.2 K-BB% through 19.2 big league innings, but a 40.0 Hard% with just a 35% ground ball rate.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 20.2% | 8.4% | Home | 19.7% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 1.8% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Years | 20.0% | 6.4% | Road | 19.4% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 1.9% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.2% | Road | 18.8% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 11.9% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 23.5% | 13.6% | Road | 21.6% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 20.9% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | Angels | L2 Years | 15.5% | 8.0% | Road | 18.2% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 28.1% | 5.8% | Road | 30.9% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 13.2% | 7.2% | Road | 12.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 14.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 21.9% | 6.2% | Home | 25.6% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 3.9% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 21.6% | 7.4% | Road | 25.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 7.1% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 24.8% | 5.2% | Home | 26.4% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 3.6% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | L2 Years | 18.8% | 6.0% | Home | 16.7% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.6% | 3.4% | Road | 22.7% | 2.5% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 3.8% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.4% | Road | 18.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 3.7% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.7% | 9.1% | Home | 21.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 20.3% | 6.8% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.3% | 5.2% | Home | 21.4% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 5.5% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 12.4% | 8.9% | Home | 10.7% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 7.8% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.7% | 6.6% | Home | 19.3% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 1.7% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.3% | Road | 21.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 6.9% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.0% | 5.2% | Home | 15.5% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 3.7% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 28.5% | 5.2% | Home | 29.4% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 7.6% |
| Zachary Neal | Athletics | L2 Years | 8.6% | 1.2% | Road | 10.0% | 1.3% | L14 Days | 6.4% | 2.1% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.0% | 8.8% | Home | 19.6% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 6.9% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | Road | 22.1% | 6.9% | RH | 20.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.1% | 3.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.2% | 6.9% | RH | 22.6% | 6.8% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.5% | 8.0% | LH | 22.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 17.7% | 6.5% |
| Astros | Home | 24.9% | 9.4% | LH | 22.8% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.2% | 7.8% | LH | 20.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 15.8% | 9.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.2% | 8.0% | RH | 19.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.4% | 7.6% | LH | 22.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.5% | 5.8% |
| Rays | Road | 23.6% | 7.7% | LH | 26.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 27.5% | 5.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.8% | 8.8% | LH | 19.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 25.9% | 9.0% |
| Royals | Road | 21.3% | 6.0% | LH | 19.0% | 6.1% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.3% |
| Braves | Road | 19.9% | 7.8% | RH | 19.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.5% | 12.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.3% | 10.5% | RH | 25.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 27.2% | 11.9% |
| Mets | Home | 21.7% | 9.0% | RH | 22.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.8% | 8.1% | RH | 21.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 24.6% | 7.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.3% | 7.3% | LH | 21.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.4% | 5.3% |
| Padres | Road | 25.7% | 7.2% | RH | 24.8% | 7.5% | L7Days | 33.0% | 10.7% |
| Angels | Road | 16.4% | 7.8% | RH | 15.9% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.3% |
| Giants | Home | 17.1% | 10.1% | RH | 17.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 18.1% | 7.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.2% | 7.2% | RH | 18.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 22.8% | 6.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.8% | 6.6% | RH | 21.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.5% | 3.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.4% | 8.8% | RH | 20.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.3% |
| Reds | Road | 21.1% | 7.2% | RH | 21.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 14.6% | 11.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 38.1% | 15.4% | 18.3% | 2016 | 38.1% | 15.4% | 18.3% | Home | 39.5% | 18.6% | 23.0% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 26.3% | 17.1% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Years | 30.9% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 2016 | 30.3% | 11.0% | 13.2% | Road | 30.1% | 7.3% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 6.7% | 9.8% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 40.0% | 11.1% | 26.7% | 2016 | 40.0% | 11.1% | 26.7% | Road | 31.8% | 0.0% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 7.7% | 20.0% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 30.3% | 4.8% | 9.8% | 2016 | 30.3% | 4.8% | 9.8% | Road | 25.7% | 4.2% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 0.0% | 13.1% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | Angels | L2 Years | 29.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 2016 | 32.8% | 19.1% | 16.4% | Road | 33.3% | 14.1% | 20.4% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% | 21.4% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 29.1% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 2016 | 34.9% | 16.4% | 18.3% | Road | 25.4% | 9.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 33.9% | 13.3% | 10.7% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 24.7% | 13.2% | 1.7% | 2016 | 23.9% | 12.5% | -3.4% | Road | 19.5% | 19.0% | -4.9% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 24.4% | 14.5% | 0.9% | 2016 | 29.6% | 16.5% | 8.1% | Home | 20.9% | 9.7% | -6.5% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 18.2% | 5.7% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 31.4% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 2016 | 34.3% | 9.4% | 14.8% | Road | 29.4% | 10.8% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 34.9% | 5.0% | 23.3% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.4% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 2016 | 35.3% | 12.8% | 17.8% | Home | 30.7% | 10.6% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 8.6% | 19.6% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | L2 Years | 30.9% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 2016 | 36.9% | 11.0% | 21.9% | Home | 31.0% | 7.6% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 40.0% | 13.3% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.3% | 15.4% | 16.4% | 2016 | 32.3% | 15.4% | 16.4% | Road | 27.3% | 19.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 10.0% | 5.3% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.2% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 2016 | 26.3% | 13.7% | 4.5% | Road | 31.8% | 13.3% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 12.5% | 22.2% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.3% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 2016 | 33.1% | 13.8% | 12.1% | Home | 31.5% | 14.9% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 16.7% | 10.0% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.6% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 2016 | 32.2% | 8.5% | 15.6% | Home | 29.9% | 10.7% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 7.7% | 2.3% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.0% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 2016 | 32.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | Home | 29.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 7.7% | 28.9% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.8% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 2016 | 29.8% | 11.7% | 10.9% | Home | 28.2% | 11.8% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 15.4% | 4.2% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 30.5% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 2016 | 29.1% | 14.6% | 7.3% | Road | 32.8% | 18.6% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 14.3% | 19.6% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.9% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 2016 | 31.7% | 14.3% | 15.1% | Home | 29.3% | 14.2% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 26.2% | 12.0% | 5.5% | 2016 | 27.9% | 8.9% | 6.4% | Home | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.7% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 12.5% | -20.0% |
| Zachary Neal | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.0% | 17.1% | 9.0% | 2016 | 29.0% | 17.1% | 9.0% | Road | 25.4% | 22.2% | 1.5% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 16.7% | 11.9% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 31.1% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 2016 | 31.6% | 14.5% | 15.0% | Home | 40.8% | 12.8% | 32.6% | L14 Days | 33.9% | 15.8% | 23.2% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | Road | 30.7% | 11.9% | 11.9% | RH | 31.5% | 14.3% | 13.7% | L7Days | 29.9% | 9.4% | 11.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 34.7% | 16.3% | 19.4% | RH | 32.6% | 12.2% | 15.4% | L7Days | 32.6% | 9.8% | 16.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.0% | 12.3% | 8.4% | LH | 30.0% | 12.1% | 10.7% | L7Days | 24.5% | 10.5% | 6.1% |
| Astros | Home | 32.6% | 14.9% | 13.6% | LH | 33.4% | 15.4% | 15.6% | L7Days | 33.3% | 18.9% | 17.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 33.3% | 13.5% | 17.0% | LH | 34.2% | 12.4% | 16.0% | L7Days | 42.4% | 16.9% | 30.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 30.3% | 13.5% | 10.9% | RH | 30.5% | 13.9% | 11.2% | L7Days | 28.3% | 17.2% | 11.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 30.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% | LH | 32.2% | 11.4% | 12.4% | L7Days | 18.9% | 5.1% | -5.4% |
| Rays | Road | 32.3% | 14.2% | 14.2% | LH | 32.0% | 10.9% | 15.2% | L7Days | 34.5% | 9.3% | 14.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 34.5% | 12.7% | 15.9% | LH | 31.0% | 12.2% | 11.3% | L7Days | 36.4% | 6.5% | 11.0% |
| Royals | Road | 28.6% | 10.7% | 8.9% | LH | 30.2% | 11.8% | 10.7% | L7Days | 33.1% | 12.3% | 15.0% |
| Braves | Road | 28.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | RH | 28.9% | 9.1% | 10.0% | L7Days | 36.1% | 10.3% | 16.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 34.5% | 16.3% | 17.1% | RH | 32.6% | 14.8% | 13.6% | L7Days | 31.2% | 14.3% | 16.5% |
| Mets | Home | 34.8% | 13.8% | 13.5% | RH | 33.6% | 13.2% | 15.4% | L7Days | 31.7% | 20.8% | 13.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 31.0% | 11.3% | 11.0% | RH | 30.5% | 10.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 36.6% | 9.1% | 13.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.0% | 15.1% | 11.8% | LH | 29.9% | 17.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.6% | 13.5% | 5.7% |
| Padres | Road | 31.6% | 15.0% | 12.7% | RH | 30.5% | 12.9% | 11.2% | L7Days | 29.2% | 12.2% | 5.0% |
| Angels | Road | 30.2% | 9.3% | 10.4% | RH | 30.8% | 9.8% | 12.4% | L7Days | 31.2% | 9.1% | 17.2% |
| Giants | Home | 26.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | RH | 30.1% | 8.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 26.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.7% | 12.9% | 11.0% | RH | 29.5% | 10.6% | 10.3% | L7Days | 31.6% | 8.3% | 13.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 32.0% | 12.1% | 12.0% | RH | 28.9% | 13.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 31.3% | 13.2% | 12.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 34.2% | 13.5% | 17.1% | RH | 34.3% | 15.2% | 17.0% | L7Days | 40.5% | 20.3% | 27.6% |
| Reds | Road | 29.9% | 10.3% | 11.3% | RH | 30.9% | 11.9% | 13.2% | L7Days | 28.7% | 4.9% | 11.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 20.2% | 8.7% | 2.32 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 2.07 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 21.5% | 9.4% | 2.29 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 2.77 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.56 | 18.1% | 8.4% | 2.15 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 23.5% | 10.2% | 2.30 | 28.7% | 13.4% | 2.14 |
| Brett Oberholtzer | ANA | 16.9% | 8.5% | 1.99 | 15.5% | 11.1% | 1.40 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 25.1% | 11.9% | 2.11 | 27.2% | 12.4% | 2.19 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 14.6% | 7.9% | 1.85 | 21.6% | 10.4% | 2.08 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 20.8% | 9.6% | 2.17 | 23.4% | 8.7% | 2.69 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 26.9% | 13.4% | 2.01 | 25.0% | 13.5% | 1.85 |
| David Price | BOS | 24.2% | 11.9% | 2.03 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 1.98 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 19.8% | 10.7% | 1.85 | 31.6% | 15.0% | 2.11 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 20.6% | 8.1% | 2.54 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 2.45 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 20.9% | 11.4% | 1.83 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 1.92 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 17.5% | 7.0% | 2.50 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 2.64 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 21.6% | 7.9% | 2.73 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 2.48 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 15.1% | 9.1% | 1.66 | 15.8% | 6.3% | 2.51 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 20.7% | 10.6% | 1.95 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 1.97 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 20.5% | 9.9% | 2.07 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 1.91 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.37 | 13.4% | 7.0% | 1.91 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 29.4% | 14.6% | 2.01 | 25.6% | 13.7% | 1.87 |
| Zachary Neal | OAK | 8.6% | 9.6% | 0.90 | 8.3% | 10.6% | 0.78 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 16.8% | 11.3% | 1.49 | 16.8% | 11.3% | 1.49 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.31 ERA – 4.27 SIERA – 4.21 xFIP – 4.26 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 4.68 | 4.62 | -0.06 | 4.95 | 0.27 | 5.4 | 0.72 | 6.04 | 4.47 | -1.57 | 5.01 | -1.03 | 6.99 | 0.95 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 3.27 | 3.96 | 0.69 | 3.98 | 0.71 | 3.72 | 0.45 | 3.6 | 3.82 | 0.22 | 3.69 | 0.09 | 3.31 | -0.29 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 5.49 | 4.32 | -1.17 | 4.63 | -0.86 | 4.32 | -1.17 | 4.58 | 4.82 | 0.24 | 4.97 | 0.39 | 4.9 | 0.32 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 3.17 | 4.75 | 1.58 | 4.46 | 1.29 | 3.47 | 0.3 | 3.43 | 4.83 | 1.4 | 4.47 | 1.04 | 4.19 | 0.76 |
| Brett Oberholtzer | ANA | 5.27 | 4.47 | -0.8 | 4.81 | -0.46 | 5.79 | 0.52 | 6.23 | 4.67 | -1.56 | 4.98 | -1.25 | 4.92 | -1.31 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.12 | 3.51 | 0.39 | 3.43 | 0.31 | 3.83 | 0.71 | 4.93 | 3.16 | -1.77 | 3.06 | -1.87 | 3.56 | -1.37 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 4.44 | 4.48 | 0.04 | 4.73 | 0.29 | 4.7 | 0.26 | 2.19 | 4.77 | 2.58 | 4.26 | 2.07 | 5.42 | 3.23 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 4.64 | 3.74 | -0.9 | 3.52 | -1.12 | 3.85 | -0.79 | 5 | 3.37 | -1.63 | 3.25 | -1.75 | 4 | -1 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 2.66 | 3.38 | 0.72 | 3.74 | 1.08 | 3.21 | 0.55 | 1.64 | 3.7 | 2.06 | 3.91 | 2.27 | 2.44 | 0.8 |
| David Price | BOS | 4 | 3.55 | -0.45 | 3.46 | -0.54 | 3.44 | -0.56 | 2.36 | 4.04 | 1.68 | 4.09 | 1.73 | 3.72 | 1.36 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 5.55 | 4.37 | -1.18 | 4.68 | -0.87 | 4.35 | -1.2 | 6.75 | 2.45 | -4.3 | 2.46 | -4.29 | 3.9 | -2.85 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 2.92 | 3.38 | 0.46 | 3.15 | 0.23 | 3.38 | 0.46 | 2.12 | 3.21 | 1.09 | 3.02 | 0.9 | 2.65 | 0.53 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 3.6 | 4.02 | 0.42 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 4.01 | 0.41 | 3.33 | 4.1 | 0.77 | 3.91 | 0.58 | 3.19 | -0.14 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 4.26 | 4.82 | 0.56 | 4.84 | 0.58 | 4.95 | 0.69 | 7.76 | 4.34 | -3.42 | 4.81 | -2.95 | 5.94 | -1.82 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 2.84 | 4 | 1.16 | 4.09 | 1.25 | 3.43 | 0.59 | 2.36 | 4.18 | 1.82 | 4.16 | 1.8 | 3.29 | 0.93 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 6.33 | 4.81 | -1.52 | 5.01 | -1.32 | 4.55 | -1.78 | 8.27 | 5.31 | -2.96 | 5.75 | -2.52 | 5.29 | -2.98 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.58 | 3.94 | 1.36 | 3.8 | 1.22 | 3.66 | 1.08 | 3 | 3.83 | 0.83 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 4.01 | 1.01 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 4.55 | 4.21 | -0.34 | 4.26 | -0.29 | 4.49 | -0.06 | 5.94 | 4.33 | -1.61 | 4.31 | -1.63 | 3.72 | -2.22 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 4.56 | 3.86 | -0.7 | 3.73 | -0.83 | 3.88 | -0.68 | 5.9 | 4.26 | -1.64 | 4.28 | -1.62 | 3.91 | -1.99 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 2.61 | 2.88 | 0.27 | 2.59 | -0.02 | 2.23 | -0.38 | 3.23 | 3.46 | 0.23 | 3.08 | -0.15 | 2.72 | -0.51 |
| Zachary Neal | OAK | 5.49 | 4.4 | -1.09 | 4.41 | -1.08 | 4.98 | -0.51 | 4.35 | 4.68 | 0.33 | 4.61 | 0.26 | 4.79 | 0.44 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 5.53 | 4.37 | -1.16 | 4.4 | -1.13 | 4.6 | -0.93 | 5.23 | 4.33 | -0.9 | 4.43 | -0.8 | 4.79 | -0.44 |
Dallas Keuchel now has a 67.3 LOB%, 12 points below last year’s strand rate and five points below his career rate. Don’t judge him by his 4.64 ERA that appears to be a product of ground ball hit sequencing.
David Price flies under his estimators one month. He flies over his estimators the next month and so it’s been through the entire season to the point where he’s not too far from his estimators overall now.
Jake Peavy has a 36.9 Hard% that’s shown up in a .320 BABIP despite decent numbers in the chart below. He pitches in a big park with a lot of room for baseballs to fall in the outfield. That said, his 65.1 LOB% would be second worst in baseball with enough innings to qualify. Still not good, but maybe better.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 0.292 | 0.273 | -0.019 | 0.226 | 16.3% | 86.0% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.287 | 0.311 | 0.024 | 0.226 | 7.7% | 91.9% |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.294 | 0.316 | 0.022 | 0.2 | 7.4% | 86.5% |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.297 | 0.335 | 0.038 | 0.264 | 6.5% | 83.3% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | ANA | 0.304 | 0.307 | 0.003 | 0.194 | 4.4% | 87.3% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.285 | 0.263 | -0.022 | 0.19 | 2.7% | 87.0% |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.297 | 0.326 | 0.029 | 0.126 | 0.0% | 87.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.309 | 0.302 | -0.007 | 0.187 | 11.3% | 88.6% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.290 | 0.275 | -0.015 | 0.208 | 9.4% | 80.0% |
| David Price | BOS | 0.298 | 0.320 | 0.022 | 0.233 | 8.5% | 81.6% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.287 | 0.320 | 0.033 | 0.195 | 9.8% | 86.8% |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.300 | 0.278 | -0.022 | 0.209 | 7.7% | 94.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.307 | 0.276 | -0.031 | 0.253 | 13.7% | 84.7% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.302 | 0.300 | -0.002 | 0.199 | 12.3% | 89.7% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.297 | 0.283 | -0.014 | 0.198 | 12.2% | 89.2% |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 0.301 | 0.304 | 0.003 | 0.205 | 9.6% | 89.3% |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.300 | 0.254 | -0.046 | 0.202 | 8.7% | 84.6% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.292 | 0.303 | 0.011 | 0.214 | 12.6% | 86.1% |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.298 | 0.310 | 0.012 | 0.206 | 4.0% | 93.7% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.310 | 0.343 | 0.033 | 0.227 | 7.9% | 82.8% |
| Zachary Neal | OAK | 0.301 | 0.290 | -0.011 | 0.186 | 7.3% | 91.2% |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.322 | 0.302 | -0.02 | 0.175 | 7.3% | 90.2% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
It’s not often that we get three top tier plays and another who could be on a lot of days. There appear to be a lot of strong and reasonably priced pitchers tonight.
Value Tier One
Dallas Keuchel (2) is second in the league with a 57.2 GB% and should find plenty of strikeouts against the Rays. His August line has been very close to his 2015 numbers and he still costs around $9K because he takes the occasional beating.
Noah Syndergaard (1) is the most expensive pitcher on the board, but it still seems like a reasonable price facing the Phillies at home. Sure they can run wild on him, but they’d have to get on base first. His potential in this matchup is enormous.
Value Tier Two
Jameson Taillon (4) has been pitching very well and matches up incredibly well with the Brewers. He’s in one of the top strikeout spots, though a $9.9K price tag on DraftKings might be enough to drop him a tier, while a much lower one on FanDuel should be enough to bump him one.
Jake Peavy can still strike out batters at a league average rate and faces the Braves in San Francisco. He costs $6K, which is not the lowest price on the board and may be limited a bit coming out of the pen over the last month, but you nearly start with 15 DK points facing the Atlanta in that park.
Value Tier Three
Carlos Carrasco (3) has been dominant over his last four starts from a peripheral standpoint even if he’s allowed three runs or more in three of them. He’s in a more difficult spot tonight with the second highest price tag on a strong board. If I can’t afford Syndegaard, I have no problem going here though.
Clayton Richard is a bad pitcher, who hasn’t been terrible in his two starts, in a very nice spot at the lowest possible price on DraftKings. You’re probably asking if the Marlins can get you 10 to 12 points instead of if he can.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
David Price (5) is in a somewhat neutral spot when adjusting for run environment for $10K, which is probably a pretty accurate assessment of his season on a whole, though who knows from start to start.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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