Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, July 23rd
We have a surprisingly large 12 game night slate on Saturday. Who was expecting that? Not this writer. Fortunately, it’s an incredibly strong group of arms. So strong that you might be surprised at some of the names being left out tonight.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | CHW | 1.8 | 2.85 | 6.77 | 1.09 | 0.99 | 3.14 | 4.49 | DET | 96 | 96 | 73 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 8.7 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 1.04 | 3.62 | 4.83 | KAN | 106 | 106 | 84 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 8.1 | 3.78 | 6.19 | 1.29 | 1.01 | 3.87 | 4.21 | ANA | 101 | 100 | 122 |
| David Price | BOS | 2.6 | 3.22 | 6.82 | 1.21 | 1.07 | 3.05 | 3.63 | MIN | 91 | 101 | 54 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | -6.6 | 3.48 | 5.9 | 0.77 | 0.95 | 4.06 | 5.51 | OAK | 85 | 96 | 84 |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | -5.2 | 4.67 | 4.39 | 0.94 | 1.02 | 4.67 | 6.62 | WAS | 97 | 93 | 80 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -4.9 | 3.09 | 6.41 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.35 | 3.24 | FLA | 88 | 96 | 70 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 3.8 | 4.9 | 6.11 | 0.68 | 1.01 | 5.84 | 6.88 | HOU | 94 | 99 | 94 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 8.6 | 3.88 | 6.51 | 1.22 | 1.05 | 3.86 | 3.35 | MIL | 90 | 84 | 66 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 3.4 | 2.58 | 6.14 | 1.36 | 1 | 2.29 | 1.57 | NYM | 89 | 96 | 83 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 9 | 3.9 | 6.27 | 0.98 | 1.04 | 4.14 | 4.83 | BAL | 115 | 112 | 50 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -9.3 | 4.46 | 5.57 | 1.8 | 0.95 | 4.36 | 4.07 | TAM | 104 | 91 | 102 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0 | 3.68 | 5.68 | 1.15 | 0.97 | 3.67 | 1.74 | STL | 104 | 116 | 107 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -4.3 | 3.8 | 5.87 | 1.2 | 1.04 | 3.62 | 3.76 | CLE | 87 | 108 | 122 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | -1 | 5.04 | 4.26 | 0.93 | 1.02 | 4.89 | 3.28 | ARI | 99 | 90 | 64 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | -8.4 | 4.63 | 4.85 | 0.75 | 0.99 | 5.18 | 3.16 | CHW | 93 | 99 | 88 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 0.7 | 4.79 | 5.87 | 0.83 | 1.37 | 4.82 | 4.62 | COL | 102 | 94 | 70 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 5.6 | 2.77 | 6.84 | 0.81 | 1.02 | 3.13 | 3.19 | SDG | 87 | 81 | 99 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -6.7 | 3.94 | 6.28 | 1.96 | 0.97 | 3.82 | 1.34 | LOS | 90 | 99 | 90 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | -5.5 | 4.14 | 5.7 | 1.16 | 1.07 | 4.13 | 6.52 | BOS | 123 | 120 | 116 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -7 | 3.96 | 5.4 | 1.28 | 1.02 | 3.92 | 3.8 | CIN | 86 | 89 | 116 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 1.6 | 3.5 | 6. | 2.68 | 1.37 | 3.19 | 4.19 | ATL | 75 | 73 | 86 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 5.9 | 4.08 | 5.86 | 1.66 | 1.04 | 3.74 | 3.14 | TEX | 90 | 91 | 80 |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | -5.6 | 4.16 | 5.74 | 1.74 | 1.05 | 3.86 | 2.63 | CHC | 113 | 104 | 82 |
David Price struck out 10 in three straight starts sandwiched in between two performances with a single strikeout. They were the only two times he didn’t pitch into the seventh inning in his last 13 starts. He is going to give you length and, this season, strikeouts most of the time. The run prevention thing, he’s still working on. Minnesota has some lefty mashers, but aren’t a particularly unfavorable matchup. They have a 23.2 K% vs LHP and have not come out of the break strongly at all.
Jacob deGrom came out of the break strong, one hitting the Phillies with seven strikeouts. He’s now struck out at least six in 10 straight starts, going at least six innings in eight of them. Perhaps we expected too much from him after last season, but an 18.7 K-BB% is still very good even if slightly worse. He’s in a decent spot against a Miami offense that doesn’t have much power (9.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but strikes out at a lower than average rate too (19.1% vs RHP).
John Lackey has struck out 17 of his last 50, but also allowed three HRs and nine runs over 14 innings. He’s allowed eight HRs over his last six starts with a hard hit rate up to a career high 34.1% on the season, while also maintaining a career high 25.6 K%. He might have one of tonight’s top matchups, despite the positive run environment. The Brewers strike out more than any other offense vs RHP (26.2%).
Jose Fernandez leads the majors with a 37.7 K%. He’s struck out at least eight in 11 of his last 14 with no fewer than six. When barely half the batters you face are making contact, it doesn’t much matter what they do. The Mets have some power, but a 22.6 K% vs RHP. He struck out a season high 14 the last time he faced them in June.
Kenta Maeda has alternated good and bad starts over the last month with a 13 strikeout performance at home against the Padres two starts back perhaps skewing things. The overall numbers are good with an 18.3 K-BB% plus fairly normal batted ball and contact profiles. He’s in a tough spot tonight in St Louis (15.2 HR/FB vs RHP), but the Cardinals have played the equivalent of two double headers in the last three days in 90+ degree heat. You’d have to question how much they have left in their offensive tank.
Max Scherzer is enjoying another tremendous season with the third best strikeout rate (32.3%) and a SwStr% just above Fernandez (14.9%). He’s struck out at least seven in 16 of 20 with less than six just one time this year. Encouragingly, he’s even only allowed one HR over his last four starts with just two HRs total over this span. He also has a tremendous matchup with the Padres (24.6 K% vs RHP).
Mike Leake has struck out 21 of his last 50 because he can do that now? No, not really, and I wouldn’t necessarily expect a repeat of that. He amped up his slider usage against two heavily RH lineups with high strikeout rates (Padres & Brewers). The Dodgers are not that as they lean LH and are more average overall. One thing potentially playing in his favor is the long game last night, though the Dodgers haven’t played nearly as many innings as the Cardinals over the last week.
Tyler Anderson has his first poor start at home vs Tampa Bay last time out with the real disappointment being that he struck out just three because they otherwise pound LHP. His 14.8 K-BB% and 59.1 GB% are a very strong combination overall that has played at home as well. Atlanta has proven that the park can’t save them the last two nights and they might be even worse against LHP (7.3 HR/FB).
Yordano Ventura has seemingly solved his control issues. In fact, he has just a 3.6 K% over his last nine starts. They haven’t all been good and the hard contact rate is at 33.1% over that span, but I’m sure the Royals would rather that than the walks in that park. He’s gone fewer than six innings in just three of those starts. He’s in a good spot at home against a Texas offense that struggled against RHP in the first place, but has just disabled two of their LH regulars (though neither was contributing much this season).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 71.9 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)
Cole Hamels (.280 – 83% – 15.2) is an incredibly volatile pitcher who is very streaky with strikeouts, walks, and HRs. Just look at his game log. A high strand rate is the only thing separating him from an ERA above four. He’s not in a good spot against an offense that strikes out just 17.6% of the time vs LHP. He certainly has the upside to put players in a good position when he’s on, but that’s generally not been often enough this year to overcome his unwarranted price and popularity.
Josh Tomlin (.255 – 79% – 16.8) has allowed a HR in 15 of 17 starts and 22 overall.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Drew Smyly is actually in a good park for his 0.71 GB/FB and 15.0 HR/FB. The weather has been a bit cooler this week, but the A’s do have some lefty mashers along with a below average strikeout rate and he’s struck out just three of his last 48 batters. It’s just tough to completely shake him for $5.9K when you’re looking for that low priced pitcher to fill out your second spot on DraftKings.
Chris Sale might be the most surprising omission. He’s been missing more bats and is facing a slightly below average offense on the road and vs LHP. There’s little argument with any of that except that Detroit should probably be a bit better vs LHP. In fact, I’d have a problem saying that I can find five pitchers I expect to outperform Sale today. He’s a victim of his high cost (third most expensive on either site) and a loaded board where the line had to be drawn somewhere.
Kevin Gausman has a strong 17.1 K-BB%, but struggles with the HR ball (16.2 HR/FB) in a tough park and division. That’s obviously the concern today as Cleveland has been awful on the road (14.7 K-BB%), but strong vs RHP (15.0 HR/FB). This makes him a difficult play on FanDuel for $8.2K, though I wouldn’t mind him in a secondary spot on DraftKings with some upside for just $6.5K.
Collin McHugh is another very borderline pitcher. BABIP regression has been expected all season and although that hasn’t even really happened, his strikeout rate spiked. The walk rate has become a bit of concern though, with 13 over his last four starts. He’s struck out just nine of 52 Angels in two back to back starts a month ago. The Angels strike out less than any team in baseball against RHP (despite last night’s performance) and that’s basically the decider today.
Zach Davies has been impressively league average this season with a 13.6 K-BB% at a below average price tonight. The issue is that he faces a tough offense (who just got a big bat back) in a tough home park.
Robbie Ray misses enough bats to be useful and is not in a bad overall spot against an offense that strikes out 22% of the time at home and vs LHP, but they also have just under a 15 HR/FB at home and vs LHP, while hard contact is a significant problem for him in power friendly parks.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.9% | 5.6% | Home | 28.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 9.3% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 23.6% | 7.4% | Road | 23.1% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 11.5% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 21.1% | 5.9% | Home | 21.5% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 12.0% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.6% | 5.1% | Home | 26.9% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 3.5% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | L2 Years | 25.9% | 6.5% | Road | 23.6% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Edwin Jackson | Padres | L2 Years | 16.6% | 10.3% | Road | 16.4% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 19.2% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.6% | 5.4% | Road | 23.4% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 3.6% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 14.5% | 5.9% | Road | 9.6% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 21.0% | 6.5% | Road | 21.7% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 6.7% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 34.7% | 6.6% | Home | 35.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 43.1% | 3.9% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 18.9% | 3.0% | Road | 17.6% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 12.9% | 3.2% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.3% | 7.3% | Home | 15.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 1.8% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.6% | 7.3% | Road | 24.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 40.9% | 2.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.2% | 6.2% | Home | 21.7% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 3.7% |
| Keyvius Sampson | Reds | L2 Years | 17.4% | 12.0% | Home | 19.9% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 11.8% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.2% | 8.0% | Road | 17.8% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 7.0% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 16.4% | 7.5% | Road | 18.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 6.4% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.7% | 5.2% | Home | 30.4% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 5.4% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.7% | 5.4% | Home | 16.2% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 42.0% | 0.0% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | L2 Years | 18.3% | 5.5% | Road | 20.8% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 4.3% | 6.4% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.2% | 8.9% | Road | 23.9% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 9.8% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 19.9% | 5.1% | Home | 21.8% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 5.6% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | L2 Years | 20.7% | 9.1% | Home | 22.7% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 3.6% |
| Zachary Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.5% | Home | 22.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 0.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | Road | 22.9% | 7.7% | LH | 21.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 17.6% | 6.9% |
| Royals | Home | 18.2% | 6.6% | LH | 17.6% | 6.0% | L7Days | 21.8% | 8.6% |
| Angels | Road | 15.6% | 7.7% | RH | 15.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 14.9% | 9.1% |
| Twins | Road | 25.2% | 8.2% | LH | 23.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 26.4% | 6.2% |
| Athletics | Home | 18.1% | 6.6% | LH | 18.2% | 6.2% | L7Days | 21.0% | 8.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.0% | 9.6% | RH | 19.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.9% | 7.6% | RH | 19.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.7% | 6.0% |
| Astros | Home | 24.6% | 9.9% | RH | 24.0% | 9.6% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.6% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.3% | 10.2% | RH | 26.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 26.3% | 9.8% |
| Mets | Road | 22.9% | 7.5% | RH | 22.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.2% | 5.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.1% | 8.7% | RH | 22.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 6.9% |
| Rays | Road | 23.1% | 7.9% | RH | 24.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.5% | 7.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.5% | 8.7% | RH | 19.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.7% |
| Indians | Road | 21.7% | 7.0% | RH | 20.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.3% | 8.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 22.2% | 7.7% | RH | 23.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 25.5% | 6.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.6% | 8.4% | LH | 22.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 5.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.7% | 9.2% | RH | 20.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.8% | 10.4% |
| Padres | Road | 25.3% | 6.8% | RH | 24.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 25.6% | 7.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.3% | 8.6% | RH | 20.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.4% | 7.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.7% | 9.2% | RH | 18.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 16.0% | 6.4% |
| Reds | Home | 22.3% | 7.5% | LH | 22.7% | 7.1% | L7Days | 17.7% | 10.4% |
| Braves | Road | 20.4% | 7.0% | LH | 20.7% | 6.2% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.0% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.5% | 6.0% | RH | 19.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.1% | 5.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.2% | 10.0% | RH | 22.9% | 10.8% | L7Days | 23.6% | 7.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 27.6% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 2016 | 30.6% | 12.9% | 13.7% | Home | 26.6% | 18.0% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 48.6% | 21.4% | 40.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 26.8% | 12.0% | 5.0% | 2016 | 29.1% | 15.2% | 6.8% | Road | 28.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 5.9% | 2.8% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 25.7% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 2016 | 28.4% | 10.7% | 9.1% | Home | 23.4% | 8.4% | 0.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 9.1% | 6.6% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.7% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 2016 | 35.7% | 14.5% | 18.1% | Home | 30.1% | 10.5% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 0.0% | 21.0% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | L2 Years | 31.0% | 12.8% | 8.0% | 2016 | 32.2% | 15.0% | 10.7% | Road | 35.7% | 14.7% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 57.9% | 14.3% | 52.6% |
| Edwin Jackson | Padres | L2 Years | 28.8% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 2016 | 31.4% | 12.0% | 17.7% | Road | 25.9% | 10.7% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 27.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 2016 | 30.1% | 10.8% | 11.1% | Road | 30.5% | 11.4% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | -10.0% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 30.6% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 2016 | 33.5% | 11.9% | 16.5% | Road | 33.2% | 11.3% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 0.0% | -4.1% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 31.2% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 2016 | 34.2% | 12.3% | 19.6% | Road | 32.7% | 12.9% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 21.4% | 26.3% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.7% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 2016 | 31.5% | 11.4% | 10.3% | Home | 29.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 31.5% | 15.9% | 15.2% | 2016 | 33.0% | 16.8% | 16.7% | Road | 32.8% | 15.3% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 11.1% | 4.0% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.6% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 2016 | 31.5% | 13.3% | 13.7% | Home | 30.9% | 11.9% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 6.7% | 10.4% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 2016 | 28.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | Road | 29.0% | 9.5% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 18.2% | 20.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.2% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 2016 | 31.0% | 16.2% | 12.5% | Home | 25.8% | 13.0% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 11.1% | 10.0% |
| Keyvius Sampson | Reds | L2 Years | 34.6% | 13.0% | 17.5% | 2016 | 27.5% | 21.7% | 11.8% | Home | 30.7% | 14.9% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 33.1% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 2016 | 31.7% | 10.9% | 8.9% | Road | 34.1% | 19.7% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 32.7% | 11.2% | 15.3% | 2016 | 37.3% | 11.9% | 19.6% | Road | 32.3% | 16.3% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 27.8% | 25.7% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.5% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 2016 | 27.0% | 14.7% | 3.7% | Home | 28.3% | 11.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 8.6% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.8% | 14.2% | 14.9% | 2016 | 33.3% | 15.2% | 18.1% | Home | 30.1% | 14.8% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 16.7% | 20.7% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Twins | L2 Years | 33.0% | 10.3% | 16.5% | 2016 | 34.6% | 11.0% | 18.0% | Road | 35.2% | 14.0% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 10.5% | 28.6% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 34.7% | 10.9% | 18.7% | 2016 | 34.7% | 14.1% | 18.0% | Road | 31.6% | 9.0% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 8.3% | 16.7% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 27.7% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 2016 | 27.7% | 14.3% | 3.8% | Home | 30.5% | 9.5% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 9.1% | -7.4% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | L2 Years | 29.6% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 2016 | 31.2% | 12.6% | 14.2% | Home | 31.5% | 8.4% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 37.2% | 0.0% | 27.9% |
| Zachary Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.6% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 2016 | 32.9% | 14.0% | 10.5% | Home | 35.5% | 17.5% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 5.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | Road | 31.9% | 13.2% | 13.0% | LH | 32.8% | 12.1% | 13.8% | L7Days | 36.6% | 9.8% | 22.4% |
| Royals | Home | 30.6% | 10.5% | 9.2% | LH | 27.6% | 13.0% | 6.8% | L7Days | 32.5% | 4.8% | 14.6% |
| Angels | Road | 29.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | RH | 30.9% | 9.2% | 12.0% | L7Days | 33.1% | 15.1% | 22.1% |
| Twins | Road | 30.3% | 14.3% | 11.4% | LH | 32.6% | 15.0% | 15.0% | L7Days | 26.9% | 10.9% | 6.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 27.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | LH | 28.6% | 14.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.8% | 13.6% | 13.8% | RH | 33.4% | 13.5% | 16.3% | L7Days | 33.9% | 15.0% | 16.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 30.0% | 11.3% | 9.4% | RH | 29.6% | 9.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 26.9% | 8.5% | 13.4% |
| Astros | Home | 33.1% | 14.9% | 15.3% | RH | 34.1% | 14.5% | 17.0% | L7Days | 23.8% | 6.3% | 8.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 34.6% | 14.6% | 16.9% | RH | 32.2% | 13.8% | 12.3% | L7Days | 31.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Mets | Road | 33.4% | 13.5% | 17.6% | RH | 34.5% | 13.9% | 16.9% | L7Days | 32.5% | 8.8% | 11.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 34.2% | 16.5% | 13.4% | RH | 32.9% | 16.1% | 13.1% | L7Days | 26.5% | 6.9% | 3.3% |
| Rays | Road | 32.9% | 14.9% | 14.8% | RH | 32.6% | 14.0% | 13.0% | L7Days | 27.9% | 10.5% | 9.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.7% | 13.4% | 16.1% | RH | 33.9% | 15.2% | 15.9% | L7Days | 34.4% | 16.0% | 14.3% |
| Indians | Road | 31.1% | 12.7% | 12.0% | RH | 31.8% | 15.0% | 14.0% | L7Days | 31.6% | 17.5% | 9.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 32.1% | 13.2% | 12.8% | RH | 33.5% | 13.4% | 16.0% | L7Days | 28.7% | 9.1% | 13.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.1% | 12.4% | 7.6% | LH | 29.5% | 13.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 25.4% | 12.7% | 6.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 34.9% | 15.1% | 18.5% | RH | 31.9% | 13.7% | 14.4% | L7Days | 26.5% | 11.8% | 9.6% |
| Padres | Road | 32.5% | 14.9% | 14.8% | RH | 31.1% | 13.0% | 12.8% | L7Days | 28.8% | 19.0% | 8.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.6% | 11.3% | 17.1% | RH | 33.0% | 14.1% | 15.7% | L7Days | 32.1% | 10.9% | 12.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 34.2% | 12.3% | 15.8% | RH | 34.7% | 13.9% | 16.0% | L7Days | 34.9% | 20.0% | 14.8% |
| Reds | Home | 31.3% | 14.8% | 13.9% | LH | 29.1% | 14.9% | 12.4% | L7Days | 34.0% | 14.3% | 13.6% |
| Braves | Road | 26.5% | 8.7% | 5.8% | LH | 29.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 27.8% | 11.1% | 8.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.5% | 15.0% | 11.9% | RH | 29.8% | 13.0% | 10.0% | L7Days | 39.1% | 15.6% | 21.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 33.5% | 15.8% | 15.5% | RH | 31.6% | 13.8% | 12.8% | L7Days | 29.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | CHW | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.31 | 24.3% | 14.0% | 1.74 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 22.8% | 12.3% | 1.85 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 2.06 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.00 | 25.0% | 12.0% | 2.08 |
| David Price | BOS | 25.8% | 12.6% | 2.05 | 23.4% | 12.0% | 1.95 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 24.5% | 11.2% | 2.19 | 16.5% | 10.3% | 1.60 |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | 15.1% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 15.4% | 12.2% | 1.26 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 24.4% | 10.4% | 2.35 | 26.0% | 8.6% | 3.02 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 13.0% | 8.5% | 1.53 | 13.3% | 9.5% | 1.40 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 25.6% | 11.6% | 2.21 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 2.21 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 37.7% | 14.8% | 2.55 | 40.6% | 15.8% | 2.57 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 16.3% | 6.5% | 2.51 | 17.1% | 5.6% | 3.05 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 15.0% | 8.4% | 1.79 | 11.0% | 6.0% | 1.83 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 25.6% | 12.1% | 2.12 | 29.7% | 13.4% | 2.22 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 22.1% | 10.9% | 2.03 | 25.2% | 11.8% | 2.14 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 19.5% | 9.5% | 2.05 | 21.7% | 12.8% | 1.70 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 19.8% | 8.1% | 2.44 | 30.2% | 8.0% | 3.78 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 17.8% | 9.0% | 1.98 | 18.7% | 11.3% | 1.65 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 32.3% | 14.9% | 2.17 | 32.3% | 15.0% | 2.15 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 17.8% | 7.0% | 2.54 | 23.0% | 10.8% | 2.13 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 17.6% | 9.0% | 1.96 | 9.4% | 6.3% | 1.49 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 26.0% | 10.6% | 2.45 | 28.7% | 12.1% | 2.37 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 19.9% | 10.9% | 1.83 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 1.67 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 16.9% | 8.3% | 2.04 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 1.54 |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 20.0% | 7.8% | 2.56 | 20.4% | 7.1% | 2.87 |
Jacob deGrom has been a little up and down in his SwStr% over the last four starts even if his strikeout numbers have been consistent.
Yordano Ventura may be in line for a few more strikeouts, but his SwStr% has been more up and down than consistently above average over the last month.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.36 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.32 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.18 | 3.61 | 0.43 | 3.71 | 0.53 | 3.71 | 0.53 | 4.5 | 3.78 | -0.72 | 4.01 | -0.49 | 5.19 | 0.69 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3 | 4.11 | 1.11 | 4.06 | 1.06 | 4.33 | 1.33 | 3.38 | 4.27 | 0.89 | 4.23 | 0.85 | 2.84 | -0.54 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.25 | 4.04 | -0.21 | 4.12 | -0.13 | 3.79 | -0.46 | 2.66 | 4.49 | 1.83 | 4.44 | 1.78 | 3.91 | 1.25 |
| David Price | BOS | 4.36 | 3.35 | -1.01 | 3.21 | -1.15 | 3.39 | -0.97 | 4.75 | 3.3 | -1.45 | 2.9 | -1.85 | 2.92 | -1.83 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 5.64 | 3.83 | -1.81 | 4.15 | -1.49 | 4.52 | -1.12 | 9.15 | 5.1 | -4.05 | 5.14 | -4.01 | 6.1 | -3.05 |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | 4.76 | 5.87 | 1.11 | 6.26 | 1.5 | 6.09 | 1.33 | 2.84 | 6.62 | 3.78 | 6.11 | 3.27 | 6.31 | 3.47 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2.38 | 3.52 | 1.14 | 3.33 | 0.95 | 3.11 | 0.73 | 0.93 | 3.15 | 2.22 | 3.02 | 2.09 | 3.15 | 2.22 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 5.02 | 5.4 | 0.38 | 5.64 | 0.62 | 5.44 | 0.42 | 4.7 | 5.54 | 0.84 | 5.77 | 1.07 | 4.63 | -0.07 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 3.75 | 3.74 | -0.01 | 3.82 | 0.07 | 3.75 | 0 | 6.75 | 4.39 | -2.36 | 4.4 | -2.35 | 5.14 | -1.61 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2.53 | 2.48 | -0.05 | 2.2 | -0.33 | 2.09 | -0.44 | 3.12 | 2.03 | -1.09 | 1.49 | -1.63 | 2.15 | -0.97 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 3.34 | 4.3 | 0.96 | 4.27 | 0.93 | 4.89 | 1.55 | 3.42 | 4.36 | 0.94 | 4.3 | 0.88 | 5.85 | 2.43 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.25 | 4.63 | 0.38 | 4.56 | 0.31 | 4.61 | 0.36 | 2.97 | 4.71 | 1.74 | 4.73 | 1.76 | 3.36 | 0.39 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 3.25 | 3.68 | 0.43 | 3.76 | 0.51 | 3.43 | 0.18 | 5.13 | 3.25 | -1.88 | 3.63 | -1.5 | 4.25 | -0.88 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 4.05 | 3.78 | -0.27 | 3.78 | -0.27 | 4.23 | 0.18 | 3.2 | 3.14 | -0.06 | 3.12 | -0.08 | 3.39 | 0.19 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 5.51 | 5.5 | -0.01 | 6.3 | 0.79 | 7.93 | 2.42 | 3.86 | 4.8 | 0.94 | 5.19 | 1.33 | 6.37 | 2.51 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 4.91 | 4.43 | -0.48 | 4.49 | -0.42 | 4.19 | -0.72 | 0.82 | 3.16 | 2.34 | 3.25 | 2.43 | 1.88 | 1.06 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 4.67 | 4.61 | -0.06 | 4.86 | 0.19 | 4.69 | 0.02 | 5.97 | 4.6 | -1.37 | 4.95 | -1.02 | 4.83 | -1.14 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.94 | 2.97 | 0.03 | 3.26 | 0.32 | 3.51 | 0.57 | 1.89 | 3.04 | 1.15 | 3.26 | 1.37 | 2.82 | 0.93 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 4 | 3.78 | -0.22 | 3.62 | -0.38 | 3.87 | -0.13 | 3.99 | 2.78 | -1.21 | 2.45 | -1.54 | 1.92 | -2.07 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 5.02 | 4.39 | -0.63 | 4.46 | -0.56 | 4.16 | -0.86 | 5.34 | 5.96 | 0.62 | 5.88 | 0.54 | 6.02 | 0.68 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 4.49 | 3.77 | -0.72 | 3.67 | -0.82 | 3.81 | -0.68 | 4.6 | 3.28 | -1.32 | 3.44 | -1.16 | 3.29 | -1.31 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 3.43 | 3.5 | 0.07 | 3.31 | -0.12 | 3.44 | 0.01 | 3.9 | 3.72 | -0.18 | 3.56 | -0.34 | 4.12 | 0.22 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 4.97 | 4.79 | -0.18 | 4.7 | -0.27 | 4.67 | -0.3 | 6.55 | 3.75 | -2.8 | 3.5 | -3.05 | 4.29 | -2.26 |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 3.79 | 4.08 | 0.29 | 3.97 | 0.18 | 4.1 | 0.31 | 4.3 | 3.78 | -0.52 | 3.81 | -0.49 | 3.76 | -0.54 |
David Price was striking out tons of batters, but getting terrible overall results to start the season. Then he was preventing runs, but stopped missing bats for a while. More recently it’s been a bit of a mix between the two. Overall, his .328 BABIP is 39 points above his career average, but he’s never allowed contact this hard before (26.4 LD%, 35.7 Hard%). His strand rate isn’t far from his career average, but his 14.5 HR/FB is more than 50% above his 9.4 career HR/FB, however that’s not a mark too far from league average this year.
Jacob deGrom has the same BABIP and ERA as last season despite a K-BB% four points lower because his 81.6 LOB% is three and a half points higher. He’s still pitching at an All Star quality level.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .299 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.1 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.300 | 0.257 | -0.043 | 0.217 | 10.6% | 83.6% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.291 | 0.280 | -0.011 | 0.195 | 3.8% | 84.4% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.309 | 0.349 | 0.04 | 0.185 | 10.7% | 87.6% |
| David Price | BOS | 0.299 | 0.328 | 0.029 | 0.264 | 6.4% | 80.3% |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 0.303 | 0.321 | 0.018 | 0.205 | 15.0% | 84.3% |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | 0.302 | 0.229 | -0.073 | 0.08 | 0.0% | 80.5% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.302 | 0.270 | -0.032 | 0.216 | 7.2% | 84.6% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.303 | 0.294 | -0.009 | 0.218 | 17.0% | 83.6% |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.256 | 0.268 | 0.012 | 0.226 | 8.2% | 88.0% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0.295 | 0.318 | 0.023 | 0.275 | 10.0% | 80.7% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.281 | 0.255 | -0.026 | 0.214 | 8.4% | 93.2% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.307 | 0.302 | -0.005 | 0.185 | 7.1% | 89.6% |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.277 | 0.282 | 0.005 | 0.19 | 15.0% | 82.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.301 | 0.310 | 0.009 | 0.213 | 15.2% | 86.3% |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 0.290 | 0.304 | 0.014 | 0.204 | 8.7% | 83.7% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.310 | 0.288 | -0.022 | 0.217 | 21.7% | 87.0% |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 0.293 | 0.286 | -0.007 | 0.194 | 6.6% | 89.9% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.285 | 0.245 | -0.04 | 0.188 | 13.3% | 77.9% |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.290 | 0.295 | 0.005 | 0.213 | 5.1% | 93.5% |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | 0.316 | 0.319 | 0.003 | 0.182 | 6.9% | 90.0% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.314 | 0.359 | 0.045 | 0.237 | 5.4% | 85.1% |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.319 | 0.315 | -0.004 | 0.189 | 0.0% | 85.7% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.291 | 0.286 | -0.005 | 0.193 | 12.6% | 89.8% |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 0.304 | 0.287 | -0.017 | 0.207 | 4.7% | 87.3% |
Max Scherzer has a tremendous BABIP profile and I’m not even going to be worried about this.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Where was this group all week? Obviously resting for today’s start, but it would have been nice to have just a couple of these guys the last few days. If Thursday was the worst pitching board of the season, this is probably a top five one.
Value Tier One
Jose Fernandez (1) is going to be the top overall pitcher any time he pitches with that strikeout rate and Kershaw out. With a strikeout rate that high, it’s difficult for sites to price him high enough. There’s no question about whether players should make the significant effort to pay up for him.
Value Tier Two
Max Scherzer (2) is probably in line for the top overall spot any other day against the Padres and would also be the pitcher you’d want to pay up for if there is no Jose Fernandez. You’re definitely not in a bad spot landing here.
Value Tier Three
Tyler Anderson is a LHP facing the Braves for less than $6.5K on either site. As long as it’s not on the moon with no gravity, the park really doesn’t matter against this offense. Well, it matters because he’s not number one, but it’s not a significant enough hindrance.
Kenta Maeda costs $8.5K on either site and there’s always some danger in a matchup in St Louis, especially as a RH pitcher. A couple of things not in the numbers that may be in his favor is how many innings the Cardinals have played the last three days and the fact that the bullpen was emptied for the Dodgers last night too. They may need seven innings out of him tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Mike Leake probably won’t have the success he had in his last two starts against the Dodgers, but maybe he’ll realize his slider helps him miss more bats and will strikeout more tired batters than we would have otherwise expected a few weeks ago? Or maybe the Padres and Brewers are just really bad against RHP.
David Price (3) has had some uncharacteristic and inconsistent starts lately. It’s pretty stunning to look at his game by game strikeout logs over the last month and see 30 of his 32 strikeouts come in three straight starts out of five in that span. He’s expensive, but not in a bad spot and the expectation leans more towards lots of innings and an above average rate of strikeouts.
Yordano Ventura has gone seven innings in each of his last two starts, striking out a total of 11 with five total runs. He’s not only cut down on the walks, he’s Bartolo Colon over the last two months with a good matchup at home for just $5.4K on DraftKings, where he might actually be my number three point per dollar projection tonight.
John Lackey has been getting hit pretty hard recently, but maintaining a high strikeout rate. The Brewers should help him with that strikeout total and I’d bump him up a tier on FanDuel for just $8.8K, nearly $2K less than his DraftKings cost.
Jacob deGrom (4) has been very good, not great and remarkably consistent over the last two months. He’s in a decent enough spot tonight, but not such a high strikeout one and costs near $11K on either site.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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