Advanced Stats – Pitching: Saturday, July 8th
Our last meeting before the All-Star break covers an eight-game night slate, in which we’re lacking the top arms on Saturday’s board, but there are a few interesting ones. It’s not the worst slate we’ve covered this year. It’s also far from the best.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 4.1 | 3.57 | 5.8 | 51.1% | 0.96 | 3.03 | 3.44 | SDG | 74 | 84 | 68 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 1.7 | 5.21 | 4.84 | 43.8% | 1.04 | 4.79 | 5.07 | BAL | 89 | 87 | 78 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -4.3 | 4.32 | 5.78 | 45.2% | 0.98 | 3.93 | 3.24 | NYM | 116 | 104 | 107 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | -1.3 | 4.73 | 5.87 | 46.1% | 0.96 | 4.21 | 5.13 | BOS | 101 | 96 | 119 |
| Andrew Moore | SEA | 7 | 4.87 | 7.5 | 34.8% | 0.89 | 5.06 | 4.72 | OAK | 86 | 103 | 86 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 2.2 | 4.52 | 5.09 | 41.4% | 0.89 | 4.3 | 5.79 | KAN | 85 | 84 | 113 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | -0.6 | 4.14 | 5. | 45.2% | 1.01 | 4.09 | 2.25 | NYY | 121 | 91 | 79 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | -13.5 | 3.66 | 45.6% | 0.89 | 3.15 | SEA | 111 | 106 | 75 | ||
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 5.8 | 4.18 | 5.79 | 35.6% | 0.89 | 4.78 | 3.95 | LOS | 122 | 108 | 120 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -4 | 4.15 | 5.95 | 50.9% | 0.96 | 3.91 | 6.26 | CHC | 101 | 89 | 123 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.7 | 3.58 | 6.4 | 53.1% | 0.96 | 3.58 | 5.41 | PIT | 85 | 89 | 69 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | -3.7 | 4.57 | 5.36 | 44.0% | 1.39 | 5.1 | 5.25 | CHW | 95 | 87 | 107 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | -1.8 | 3.98 | 6.44 | 43.3% | 0.93 | 3.57 | 3.54 | MIA | 101 | 94 | 132 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 2.1 | 4.3 | 5.38 | 42.7% | 1.11 | 5.01 | 5.67 | TEX | 103 | 98 | 124 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -6.8 | 4.36 | 5.45 | 49.7% | 0.96 | 4.5 | 4.56 | PHI | 92 | 81 | 80 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.6 | 3.92 | 6.37 | 43.6% | 1.39 | 4.34 | 4.63 | COL | 82 | 87 | 80 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -0.6 | 4.27 | 6.08 | 38.7% | 1.01 | 4.7 | 4.94 | WAS | 118 | 111 | 100 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 2.5 | 3.8 | 6.51 | 33.8% | 1.09 | 4.18 | 5.6 | CLE | 105 | 105 | 134 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 7.5 | 3.82 | 5.37 | 61.9% | 1.13 | 3.91 | 3.82 | ARI | 111 | 105 | 72 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 2.4 | 3.66 | 5.51 | 50.1% | 1.01 | 3.52 | 2.36 | MIL | 102 | 99 | 120 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -2.8 | 3.62 | 6.34 | 60.7% | 1.03 | 3.43 | 3.12 | HOU | 132 | 129 | 188 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | -1.1 | 4.54 | 4.71 | 38.4% | 1.09 | 4.48 | 3.95 | DET | 84 | 96 | 100 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -4.7 | 4.19 | 5.65 | 42.3% | 1.03 | 4.6 | 3.72 | TOR | 89 | 91 | 88 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 6.3 | 3.82 | 6.53 | 42.6% | 0.96 | 4.1 | 4.36 | TAM | 116 | 114 | 110 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.2 | 3.02 | 6.34 | 0.413 | 1.01 | 3.33 | 3.42 | ATL | 90 | 88 | 77 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -6.2 | 4.11 | 5.67 | 0.435 | 1.13 | 4.13 | 5.55 | CIN | 96 | 100 | 96 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 4.3 | 3.53 | 5.67 | 0.56 | 1.11 | 4.44 | 6.07 | ANA | 80 | 91 | 70 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -3.5 | 4.28 | 5.6 | 0.489 | 1.04 | 4.31 | 5.76 | MIN | 101 | 86 | 118 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | -0.8 | 4.58 | 5. | 0.469 | 0.98 | 4.48 | 3.6 | STL | 100 | 98 | 95 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 3.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.93 | SFO | 73 | 84 | 49 |
Brandon McCarthy has had failing peripherals over the last month, striking out just 10 of his last 84 batters (11.9%) and just a 3.6 K-BB%, but his velocity has actually been increasing and I’d venture that he’d get some of that back. His contact management has been exceptional, best on the board for the entire day (84.2 mph aEV, 1.9% Barrels/BBE, 20.9% 95+ mph EV). He’s got the Royals at home, low walk rate, not much power vs RHP.
Jake Arrieta followed maybe his worst start of the season (4 IP – 5 ER – 6 BB – 4 K) with one of his best (7 IP – 0 ER – 2 BB – 6 K). While strong peripherals (16.2 K-BB% is higher than last year) suggested the potential for improved performance, the problem is that his SwStr rate has fallen off a cliff (8% or below in five of last six starts). The good news is that contact has greatly improved in those six starts (53.2 GB%, 1.0 Hard-Soft%). Apparently, he can’t do both anymore? The matchup is interesting tonight and very favorable from a run prevention standpoint. The Pirates have no power, but they don’t strike out very much either.
Jeff Samardzija is probably the top pitcher on the slate, from a DFS perspective at least, although his strikeouts are down too. His 24.0 K-BB% for the season is higher than his strikeout rate over the last month (21.7%). Who is going to give you the strikeouts with any modicum of control on this slate though? He has managed contact well (6.7 Hard-Soft%), doesn’t walk anyone (2.9%) and is in a favorable spot in a great park.
Jose Quintana has had a strong month (54.4 GB%, 15.3 K-BB%), though the SwStr% is lacking and a 79.9 LOB% is propping up the ERA. It’s certainly never a favorable spot pitching against any major league lineup at Coors, but the Rockies have a 16.9 K-BB% vs LHP and 21.8 K-BB% over the last week.
Luis Castillo walked and struck out five each in his major league debut. He’s since struck out 17 of 51 batters with four walks. Starts in Washington and Colorado plus a home outing against Milwaukee have led to five HRs with a 40.5% 95+ mph EV and finds himself in another difficult situation in Arizona tonight. The upside on a weak board makes him intriguing.
Mike Clevinger has occasional lapses in control (four or more walks in four of 10 starts, but just two of last eight) and allows too much hard contact (8.8% Barrels/BBE) for comfort against the Tigers (26.6 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), but Detroit will strike out a bit too (22.6% vs RHP) and the top strikeout rate on this slate (more than three starts) is difficult to entirely omit.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Taijuan Walker (.300 – 71.7% – 7.0) has struck out eight in two of his last three, but sandwiched an outing without a single strikeout in between and has walked at least four in two of them. Both starts with eight strikeouts were against Colorado. There were some high hopes for him with a return to health, but he’s been merely average (11.7 K-BB%) in just about every way except for HR suppression, which you wouldn’t expect him to sustain. He’s facing an average offense at an average cost in a poor park.
Andrew Moore (.182 – 73.5% – 12.0) has allowed three HRs in his two major league starts, pitching 15 innings, allowing six runs without a walk (eight strikeouts). Unfortunately, we can’t expect him to sustain the miniscule BABIP, which would make him difficult to generate value from with that low K%. The Athletics could give an assist with a 25.5 K% vs RHP, but they have power as well (15.2 HR/FB vs RHP). This is also a concern with his 89.6 mph aEV and 42.6% 95+ mph EV allowed so far after a bit of a price increase.
Tyson Ross is in a decent spot, even at home, against the Angels, but has just one quality start in four. That occurred in Cleveland of all places. He walked five with just three strikeouts last time out and has a 4.8 K-BB% through four starts, but does have an 84.3 mph aEV (23.2% 95+ mph EV). His 37.5 GB% is 18 points below his career rate though, not ideal for Texas.
Ian Kennedy (.204 – 71.6% – 14.4) has allowed the highest rate of barrels on the board (10.6% of BBEs). Not a good look facing the Dodgers. His 10.2 K-BB% is his lowest since his Yankee days.
Ivan Nova (.275 – 78.2% – 12.6) has a strand rate a bit too high for a 13.3 K%. His prevailing skill has been excellent control in a favorable park. Contact management has not been better than average and it’s very difficult for him to make up for mistakes. He needs to be nearly flawless to generate any daily fantasy value.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Justin Verlander did not strike out a batter in his last outing, has failed to strike out more than he’s walked in three of his last six and walked five in one of the three in which he did have more strikeouts. He’s in a bad spot for a fly ball pitcher with a double digit walk rate, allowing too much hard contact.
Jeff Hoffman has the second worst matchup on the board, entirely a product of park effects. In five home starts, he’s struck out more than four just once.
Chris Smith is a 37 year-old with 92.1 career major league innings, all out of the bullpen.
Chris O’Grady is unavailable for inclusion today.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.7% | 6.5% | Home | 26.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 30.9% | 9.1% |
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 17.6% | 11.0% | Home | 19.6% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 9.1% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.4% | Home | 20.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 5.2% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 15.9% | 6.4% | Home | 19.8% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 3.7% |
| Andrew Moore | Mariners | L2 Years | 14.6% | 0.0% | Home | 14.6% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 0.0% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.9% | 10.0% | Home | 23.3% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.7% | Road | 18.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 37.1% | 5.7% |
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.0% | 13.0% | Road | 36.1% | 19.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.2% | 8.5% | Road | 21.7% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.8% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.3% | 4.6% | Road | 16.2% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 4.0% | 6.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.1% | 8.1% | Home | 27.1% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 16.7% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 19.9% | 8.8% | Home | 16.6% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 10.7% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 20.9% | 5.5% | Home | 22.5% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.8% | Road | 18.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 14.6% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.5% | Road | 18.0% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.8% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 22.0% | 6.3% | Road | 21.1% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 12.8% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.8% | 7.3% | Road | 19.4% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 13.6% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.3% | 7.1% | Road | 25.1% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 30.1% | 12.3% | Road | 26.5% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 30.1% | 12.3% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 24.2% | 7.4% | Home | 24.3% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 35.2% | 1.9% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.5% | 6.2% | Home | 19.1% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 6.1% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 24.8% | 12.9% | Home | 25.0% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 15.2% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.7% | 7.2% | Road | 18.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 12.2% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.4% | 4.2% | Road | 20.4% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 7.7% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.2% | 6.4% | Home | 30.3% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 7.7% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.8% | 6.5% | Home | 21.1% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 13.1% | 9.8% |
| Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 24.6% | 8.8% | Home | 18.2% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 15.9% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.4% | 8.2% | Road | 17.7% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 15.4% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 21.0% | 10.0% | Road | 19.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 11.8% |
| Chris O’Grady | Marlins | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Road | 27.0% | 7.1% | RH | 25.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 31.1% | 2.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.4% | 6.2% | LH | 25.3% | 7.0% | L7Days | 21.2% | 4.3% |
| Mets | Road | 20.1% | 9.1% | RH | 19.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.3% | 8.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.9% | 9.1% | RH | 18.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.3% | 9.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 26.2% | 8.7% | RH | 25.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 27.9% | 12.6% |
| Royals | Road | 21.5% | 6.3% | RH | 20.9% | 6.3% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.3% | 10.8% | LH | 23.3% | 11.4% | L7Days | 27.7% | 12.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.3% | 9.2% | RH | 21.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 16.9% | 6.4% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.1% | 11.0% | RH | 23.3% | 10.9% | L7Days | 29.0% | 12.1% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.0% | 10.3% | RH | 22.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.6% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.5% | 8.6% | RH | 18.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.2% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.9% | 5.9% | RH | 22.5% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.9% | 9.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.8% | 6.2% | RH | 20.6% | 6.8% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.1% | 9.3% | RH | 24.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.9% | 9.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.8% | 8.4% | RH | 23.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.7% | 6.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.1% | 7.1% | LH | 23.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 26.2% | 4.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.2% | 9.3% | RH | 19.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.3% | 11.0% |
| Indians | Home | 18.8% | 9.5% | RH | 19.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.2% | 9.1% | RH | 22.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 27.2% | 8.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.3% | 9.1% | RH | 24.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.0% | 10.3% |
| Astros | Road | 17.8% | 8.8% | RH | 17.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 17.3% | 7.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.5% | 9.2% | RH | 22.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.0% | 7.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.7% | 8.1% | RH | 20.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.5% | 7.7% |
| Rays | Home | 24.9% | 9.8% | RH | 24.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.7% | 7.7% |
| Braves | Road | 19.9% | 7.4% | RH | 19.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.5% | 7.1% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 7.4% | RH | 20.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.3% | 9.9% |
| Angels | Road | 21.4% | 8.7% | RH | 20.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.0% |
| Twins | Home | 21.5% | 10.2% | LH | 20.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.3% | 9.6% | RH | 21.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.6% | 8.1% |
| Giants | Home | 19.5% | 6.6% | LH | 18.9% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.5% | 5.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.0% | 13.7% | 7.4% | 2017 | 29.6% | 13.1% | 7.9% | Home | 29.1% | 20.3% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 10.0% | 30.3% |
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 33.3% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 2017 | 32.8% | 14.9% | 11.1% | Home | 36.9% | 17.5% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.8% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 2017 | 30.4% | 11.8% | 10.1% | Home | 29.5% | 5.2% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 36.0% | 12.4% | 22.2% | 2017 | 37.5% | 10.5% | 24.5% | Home | 41.0% | 12.5% | 26.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 10.5% | 13.6% |
| Andrew Moore | Mariners | L2 Years | 29.8% | 12.0% | 19.2% | 2017 | 29.8% | 12.0% | 19.2% | Home | 29.8% | 12.0% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 16.7% | 16.0% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 2017 | 25.1% | 5.9% | 0.9% | Home | 32.6% | 6.3% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 29.2% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 2017 | 23.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | Road | 26.5% | 21.1% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -5.0% |
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 25.9% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 2017 | Road | 12.5% | 33.3% | -12.5% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 36.6% | 13.4% | 20.4% | 2017 | 37.9% | 14.4% | 24.2% | Road | 34.1% | 14.5% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 13.3% | 21.6% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.4% | 14.8% | 14.6% | 2017 | 31.9% | 12.6% | 13.4% | Road | 35.6% | 17.4% | 21.3% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.9% | 10.9% | 1.8% | 2017 | 29.5% | 15.1% | 8.1% | Home | 23.3% | 8.3% | 0.3% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 0.0% | -20.0% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 33.7% | 13.3% | 14.8% | 2017 | 33.3% | 8.3% | 15.6% | Home | 35.8% | 13.6% | 18.3% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 11.1% | 15.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 30.0% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 2017 | 28.9% | 16.7% | 6.7% | Home | 31.0% | 9.6% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 7.7% | 12.8% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 33.7% | 16.5% | 16.2% | 2017 | 34.2% | 16.8% | 17.8% | Road | 39.2% | 16.3% | 24.7% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 3.7% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 31.9% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 2017 | 30.3% | 15.1% | 9.0% | Road | 33.7% | 18.8% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | -2.8% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 31.8% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 2017 | 30.5% | 12.6% | 11.7% | Road | 30.2% | 6.3% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 10.0% | -3.4% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 2017 | 30.2% | 15.7% | 7.1% | Road | 32.3% | 10.1% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 23.1% | 3.7% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.2% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 2017 | 37.8% | 9.7% | 22.3% | Road | 30.3% | 10.6% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 38.1% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 31.0% | 38.5% | 14.3% | 2017 | 31.0% | 38.5% | 14.3% | Road | 33.3% | 44.4% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 38.5% | 14.3% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.9% | 16.0% | 7.0% | 2017 | 30.3% | 14.7% | 10.6% | Home | 29.6% | 21.9% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 46.9% | 9.1% | 34.4% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.5% | 17.2% | 10.9% | 2017 | 30.0% | 19.1% | 8.9% | Home | 31.5% | 13.6% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 0.0% | -2.9% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 31.5% | 13.6% | 15.0% | 2017 | 32.0% | 14.3% | 17.6% | Home | 31.5% | 14.0% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 12.5% | 30.4% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 32.6% | 16.1% | 14.3% | 2017 | 30.3% | 20.7% | 11.4% | Road | 32.8% | 20.0% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 57.1% | 0.0% | 42.8% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 34.4% | 11.1% | 17.4% | 2017 | 43.4% | 12.8% | 26.2% | Road | 34.1% | 13.3% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 13.0% | 23.7% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.9% | 11.1% | 5.5% | 2017 | 27.0% | 10.9% | 5.9% | Home | 28.9% | 13.2% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 8.7% | -2.2% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.7% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 2017 | 34.5% | 7.0% | 19.8% | Home | 30.6% | 14.5% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 24.4% |
| Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 24.9% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 2017 | 26.8% | 8.3% | 16.1% | Home | 40.4% | 8.3% | 29.8% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 6.7% | -3.6% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.5% | 15.0% | 13.2% | 2017 | 34.6% | 18.2% | 15.7% | Road | 36.4% | 17.3% | 19.6% | L14 Days | 44.0% | 33.3% | 36.0% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 34.3% | 17.7% | 14.8% | 2017 | 34.3% | 17.7% | 14.8% | Road | 31.3% | 14.7% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -30.0% |
| Chris O’Grady | Marlins | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Road | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Road | 29.4% | 14.8% | 7.4% | RH | 28.3% | 14.4% | 6.0% | L7Days | 26.7% | 9.6% | 7.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.6% | 13.3% | 15.0% | LH | 35.1% | 12.7% | 16.6% | L7Days | 33.0% | 13.6% | 10.1% |
| Mets | Road | 37.5% | 16.3% | 20.3% | RH | 35.8% | 13.4% | 18.8% | L7Days | 39.4% | 16.1% | 26.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.3% | 11.9% | 13.5% | RH | 35.5% | 11.0% | 17.6% | L7Days | 34.3% | 13.3% | 15.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 36.2% | 12.6% | 17.2% | RH | 34.4% | 15.2% | 17.8% | L7Days | 30.8% | 13.4% | 16.3% |
| Royals | Road | 31.6% | 15.0% | 11.5% | RH | 32.0% | 12.3% | 12.4% | L7Days | 27.6% | 15.7% | 5.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 31.0% | 20.1% | 9.9% | LH | 29.4% | 13.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 30.0% | 13.7% | 10.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 28.8% | 12.6% | 9.5% | RH | 30.7% | 12.4% | 12.9% | L7Days | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.0% | 17.5% | 20.6% | RH | 34.6% | 15.3% | 19.1% | L7Days | 31.8% | 15.6% | 10.6% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.0% | 16.5% | 13.3% | RH | 30.0% | 13.9% | 11.7% | L7Days | 34.2% | 20.4% | 13.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.9% | 11.7% | 10.3% | RH | 30.7% | 10.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 36.0% | 8.2% | 18.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.9% | 14.6% | 14.7% | RH | 30.5% | 13.4% | 11.5% | L7Days | 27.7% | 17.0% | 10.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.2% | 14.4% | 9.3% | RH | 31.0% | 14.6% | 11.2% | L7Days | 29.0% | 18.2% | 14.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 35.5% | 17.4% | 16.6% | RH | 33.9% | 17.6% | 13.9% | L7Days | 37.1% | 20.9% | 18.2% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.7% | 13.2% | 10.3% | RH | 30.2% | 10.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 32.2% | 10.2% | 10.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 30.4% | 15.8% | 10.7% | LH | 30.5% | 15.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 30.8% | 16.0% | 13.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.1% | 14.5% | 14.8% | RH | 31.6% | 14.3% | 14.6% | L7Days | 31.5% | 8.0% | 16.7% |
| Indians | Home | 30.9% | 12.5% | 13.7% | RH | 33.6% | 12.1% | 17.2% | L7Days | 36.5% | 15.4% | 16.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.9% | 16.1% | 25.2% | RH | 36.6% | 15.3% | 19.6% | L7Days | 30.9% | 12.0% | 11.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.7% | 18.6% | 11.8% | RH | 33.9% | 20.2% | 14.8% | L7Days | 37.0% | 17.6% | 21.8% |
| Astros | Road | 33.4% | 15.7% | 14.6% | RH | 33.3% | 16.1% | 15.5% | L7Days | 36.2% | 19.7% | 11.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 36.4% | 12.4% | 18.9% | RH | 41.9% | 12.2% | 26.6% | L7Days | 38.2% | 9.5% | 23.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.4% | 13.9% | 9.5% | RH | 31.0% | 14.9% | 10.9% | L7Days | 28.6% | 11.0% | 6.9% |
| Rays | Home | 38.4% | 16.6% | 20.6% | RH | 36.9% | 18.7% | 19.6% | L7Days | 33.1% | 20.0% | 17.2% |
| Braves | Road | 31.5% | 11.9% | 13.2% | RH | 30.8% | 11.3% | 11.9% | L7Days | 30.7% | 8.8% | 13.5% |
| Reds | Road | 30.4% | 13.8% | 11.1% | RH | 29.9% | 14.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 29.8% | 13.1% | 7.5% |
| Angels | Road | 33.0% | 11.1% | 14.0% | RH | 30.6% | 13.1% | 11.3% | L7Days | 35.7% | 14.6% | 20.1% |
| Twins | Home | 34.2% | 11.8% | 17.9% | LH | 30.3% | 8.4% | 11.6% | L7Days | 29.7% | 6.9% | 9.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.3% | 12.1% | 13.1% | RH | 32.1% | 14.0% | 13.2% | L7Days | 40.7% | 18.2% | 27.9% |
| Giants | Home | 25.3% | 6.2% | 3.8% | LH | 28.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 33.5% | 7.5% | 14.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 24.1% | 9.6% | 2.51 | 27.8% | 8.7% | 3.20 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 18.5% | 8.9% | 2.08 | 16.9% | 9.6% | 1.76 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 20.3% | 7.6% | 2.67 | 23.0% | 6.2% | 3.71 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 16.0% | 6.7% | 2.39 | 15.2% | 5.4% | 2.81 |
| Andrew Moore | SEA | 14.6% | 7.0% | 2.09 | 14.6% | 7.0% | 2.09 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 19.7% | 8.7% | 2.26 | 10.2% | 7.3% | 1.40 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 22.7% | 9.8% | 2.32 | 27.3% | 11.3% | 2.42 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | ||||||
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 20.8% | 9.1% | 2.29 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 2.12 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 13.3% | 7.4% | 1.80 | 13.3% | 8.7% | 1.53 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 24.3% | 9.7% | 2.51 | 19.7% | 6.8% | 2.90 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 23.5% | 9.8% | 2.40 | 17.3% | 7.5% | 2.31 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 26.9% | 10.6% | 2.54 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 2.38 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 17.8% | 8.0% | 2.23 | 16.5% | 7.6% | 2.17 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 20.1% | 8.6% | 2.34 | 20.5% | 9.8% | 2.09 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 23.5% | 8.2% | 2.87 | 23.7% | 7.9% | 3.00 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 16.7% | 8.6% | 1.94 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 1.74 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 21.1% | 9.1% | 2.32 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.23 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 30.1% | 14.2% | 2.12 | 30.1% | 14.2% | 2.12 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 28.0% | 12.1% | 2.31 | 29.0% | 12.9% | 2.25 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 20.2% | 10.2% | 1.98 | 21.6% | 12.2% | 1.77 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 28.4% | 13.8% | 2.06 | 28.2% | 14.0% | 2.01 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 21.6% | 9.6% | 2.25 | 26.1% | 9.0% | 2.90 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.18 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 2.57 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 28.6% | 12.8% | 2.23 | 31.5% | 15.5% | 2.03 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 20.4% | 9.4% | 2.17 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.20 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 18.1% | 7.7% | 2.35 | 18.1% | 7.7% | 2.35 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 19.7% | 7.5% | 2.63 | 17.7% | 7.0% | 2.53 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 21.0% | 8.6% | 2.44 | 19.2% | 7.6% | 2.53 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA |
Jose Quintana had a 2.84 K/SwStr last year, but a 2.38 career rate, so it’s undetermined if he has any kind of special skill in getting called strikes now.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.73 | 3.92 | 0.19 | 3.66 | -0.07 | 3.6 | -0.13 | 2.97 | -0.76 | 3.06 | 3.64 | 0.58 | 3.27 | 0.21 | 3.5 | 0.44 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 4.32 | 5.14 | 0.82 | 5.2 | 0.88 | 5.39 | 1.07 | 4.75 | 0.43 | 4.65 | 5.26 | 0.61 | 5.44 | 0.79 | 5.35 | 0.7 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 5.48 | 4.36 | -1.12 | 4.07 | -1.41 | 3.87 | -1.61 | 5.95 | 0.47 | 7.2 | 3.78 | -3.42 | 3.37 | -3.83 | 4.24 | -2.96 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 4.01 | 4.77 | 0.76 | 4.66 | 0.65 | 4.23 | 0.22 | 4.45 | 0.44 | 2.91 | 4.83 | 1.92 | 4.95 | 2.04 | 3.57 | 0.66 |
| Andrew Moore | SEA | 3.6 | 4.87 | 1.27 | 5.06 | 1.46 | 4.69 | 1.09 | 6.18 | 2.58 | 3.6 | 4.87 | 1.27 | 5.06 | 1.46 | 4.69 | 1.09 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 3.25 | 4.4 | 1.15 | 4.17 | 0.92 | 3.21 | -0.04 | 3.77 | 0.52 | 3.14 | 5.95 | 2.81 | 5.81 | 2.67 | 3.58 | 0.44 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 3 | 3.95 | 0.95 | 4.01 | 1.01 | 3.02 | 0.02 | 5.96 | 2.96 | 1.98 | 3.13 | 1.15 | 2.79 | 0.81 | 2.57 | 0.59 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 4.23 | |||||||||||||||
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.44 | 4.9 | 0.46 | 5.23 | 0.79 | 5.36 | 0.92 | 5.07 | 0.63 | 2.97 | 4.57 | 1.6 | 4.98 | 2.01 | 4.97 | 2 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 3.24 | 4.56 | 1.32 | 4.17 | 0.93 | 4.05 | 0.81 | 4.87 | 1.63 | 3.77 | 4.92 | 1.15 | 4.54 | 0.77 | 5.03 | 1.26 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.33 | 4.01 | -0.32 | 3.88 | -0.45 | 4.05 | -0.28 | 4.14 | -0.19 | 4 | 4.74 | 0.74 | 4.31 | 0.31 | 4.09 | 0.09 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 4.01 | 4.07 | 0.06 | 4.29 | 0.28 | 3.44 | -0.57 | 4.04 | 0.03 | 5.02 | 5.03 | 0.01 | 5.1 | 0.08 | 3.89 | -1.13 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.54 | 3.21 | -1.33 | 3.06 | -1.48 | 3.41 | -1.13 | 2.98 | -1.56 | 5.17 | 3.65 | -1.52 | 3.55 | -1.62 | 4.47 | -0.7 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 4.97 | 4.83 | -0.14 | 4.82 | -0.15 | 5.29 | 0.32 | 5.16 | 0.19 | 6.12 | 5.55 | -0.57 | 5.51 | -0.61 | 5.24 | -0.88 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 4.52 | 4.35 | -0.17 | 4.27 | -0.25 | 4.43 | -0.09 | 4.95 | 0.43 | 2.25 | 4.36 | 2.11 | 4.4 | 2.15 | 4.47 | 2.22 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 4.45 | 4.27 | -0.18 | 4.22 | -0.23 | 4.08 | -0.37 | 4.03 | -0.42 | 2.45 | 3.94 | 1.49 | 3.61 | 1.16 | 3.6 | 1.15 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 5.14 | 5.19 | 0.05 | 5.36 | 0.22 | 5.71 | 0.57 | 5.79 | 0.65 | 4.55 | 5.11 | 0.56 | 4.93 | 0.38 | 5.52 | 0.97 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.96 | 4.88 | -0.08 | 5.03 | 0.07 | 4.37 | -0.59 | 4.10 | -0.86 | 5.79 | 4.92 | -0.87 | 4.65 | -1.14 | 3.73 | -2.06 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 4.41 | 3.81 | -0.6 | 3.53 | -0.88 | 6.1 | 1.69 | 4.52 | 0.11 | 4.41 | 3.82 | -0.59 | 3.53 | -0.88 | 6.1 | 1.69 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.52 | 3.26 | -0.26 | 3.05 | -0.47 | 3.15 | -0.37 | 2.85 | -0.67 | 4.88 | 3.31 | -1.57 | 3.17 | -1.71 | 2.94 | -1.94 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.42 | 3.69 | 0.27 | 3.51 | 0.09 | 3.97 | 0.55 | 3.51 | 0.09 | 3.82 | 3.34 | -0.48 | 3.28 | -0.54 | 4.72 | 0.9 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 3.33 | 4.32 | 0.99 | 4.2 | 0.87 | 4.27 | 0.94 | 3.34 | 0.01 | 2.14 | 4.48 | 2.34 | 4.48 | 2.34 | 4.11 | 1.97 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 4.38 | 0.58 | 5.28 | 1.48 | 5.40 | 1.60 | 1.8 | 4 | 2.2 | 4 | 2.2 | 2.69 | 0.89 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.01 | 4.2 | -0.81 | 4.38 | -0.63 | 4.22 | -0.79 | 5.32 | 0.31 | 6.57 | 4.72 | -1.85 | 4.9 | -1.67 | 4.86 | -1.71 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 3.28 | 3.46 | 0.18 | 3.42 | 0.14 | 3.09 | -0.19 | 2.53 | -0.75 | 4.08 | 3.18 | -0.9 | 3.37 | -0.71 | 3.81 | -0.27 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 3.3 | 4.47 | 1.17 | 4.33 | 1.03 | 3.53 | 0.23 | 4.24 | 0.94 | 2.96 | 4.7 | 1.74 | 4.49 | 1.53 | 3.49 | 0.53 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 6.41 | 5.56 | -0.85 | 5.64 | -0.77 | 4.79 | -1.62 | 5.14 | -1.27 | 6.41 | 5.57 | -0.84 | 5.64 | -0.77 | 4.79 | -1.62 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 5.2 | 4.94 | -0.26 | 4.55 | -0.65 | 5.01 | -0.19 | 5.20 | 0.00 | 11.69 | 5.39 | -6.3 | 5.46 | -6.23 | 6.38 | -5.31 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 5.01 | 4.58 | -0.43 | 4.34 | -0.67 | 4.8 | -0.21 | 6.16 | 1.15 | 10.05 | 5.08 | -4.97 | 5.45 | -4.6 | 7.62 | -2.43 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA |
Brandon McCarthy has just a 5.9 HR/FB, surprising for a guy who’s had major HR issues in recent seasons. While he’s done an excellent job suppressing contact authority, this would be very difficult to sustain.
Jeff Samardzija has a career high .322 BABIP. His profile is not ideal with a 24.8 LD% and few popups, but he hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact and defense has been a disappointment. All of this has probably assisted a career low 66.9 LOB%. There should be an expectation of regression here, but perhaps he’s throwing too many strikes.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.299 | 0.297 | -0.002 | 48.5% | 0.213 | 4.9% | 85.3% | 86.7 | 4.40% | 3.00% | 203 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.294 | 0.288 | -0.006 | 44.4% | 0.183 | 11.9% | 86.2% | 87.3 | 8.30% | 5.80% | 180 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.297 | 0.354 | 0.057 | 47.9% | 0.252 | 11.8% | 90.2% | 85.9 | 5.20% | 3.70% | 286 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.292 | 0.296 | 0.004 | 44.6% | 0.222 | 6.1% | 91.8% | 88.1 | 5.20% | 4.00% | 347 |
| Andrew Moore | SEA | 0.279 | 0.182 | -0.097 | 34.8% | 0.109 | 8.0% | 92.3% | 89.6 | 6.40% | 5.50% | 47 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.278 | 0.271 | -0.007 | 44.4% | 0.227 | 19.1% | 86.0% | 84.2 | 1.90% | 1.40% | 211 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 0.298 | 0.322 | 0.024 | 47.5% | 0.203 | 5.3% | 86.8% | 84.6 | 3.30% | 2.30% | 60 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 0.296 | ||||||||||
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.301 | 0.204 | -0.097 | 38.5% | 0.124 | 7.2% | 82.5% | 89 | 10.60% | 7.20% | 227 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.304 | 0.275 | -0.029 | 48.2% | 0.236 | 8.7% | 92.2% | 87.9 | 6.10% | 5.00% | 380 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.288 | 0.302 | 0.014 | 45.4% | 0.229 | 8.1% | 83.7% | 86.7 | 5.50% | 3.70% | 271 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 0.298 | 0.272 | -0.026 | 39.4% | 0.168 | 8.3% | 87.8% | 87 | 7.10% | 4.90% | 141 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.318 | 0.322 | 0.004 | 42.4% | 0.248 | 7.8% | 84.0% | 86 | 5.10% | 3.50% | 315 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 0.287 | 0.280 | -0.007 | 40.9% | 0.211 | 6.2% | 87.0% | 88.4 | 8.40% | 6.20% | 298 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.304 | 0.296 | -0.008 | 52.3% | 0.173 | 14.0% | 89.3% | 86.5 | 6.30% | 4.40% | 287 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.286 | 0.297 | 0.011 | 43.5% | 0.194 | 14.6% | 89.4% | 87.1 | 5.70% | 3.80% | 282 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.291 | 0.274 | -0.017 | 37.2% | 0.206 | 7.9% | 88.2% | 85.5 | 7.50% | 5.50% | 308 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.308 | 0.317 | 0.009 | 34.0% | 0.238 | 9.7% | 86.8% | 88.2 | 8.80% | 5.90% | 296 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 0.292 | 0.378 | 0.086 | 61.9% | 0.071 | 15.4% | 82.8% | 87.9 | 7.10% | 4.10% | 42 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.290 | 0.295 | 0.005 | 54.1% | 0.17 | 8.0% | 85.5% | 87.2 | 6.40% | 4.20% | 264 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.305 | 0.313 | 0.008 | 61.0% | 0.171 | 2.9% | 89.0% | 88.3 | 7.00% | 5.10% | 313 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.306 | 0.237 | -0.069 | 38.7% | 0.218 | 6.1% | 79.0% | 87.8 | 8.80% | 5.00% | 125 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.296 | 0.269 | -0.027 | 47.8% | 0.175 | 8.0% | 85.7% | 86.4 | 7.80% | 5.30% | 255 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.308 | 0.352 | 0.044 | 37.6% | 0.214 | 9.4% | 87.4% | 88.5 | 8.50% | 6.30% | 366 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.295 | 0.277 | -0.018 | 44.5% | 0.196 | 9.9% | 84.0% | 87.6 | 7.70% | 4.90% | 285 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.290 | 0.300 | 0.01 | 48.5% | 0.203 | 8.5% | 85.2% | 87.9 | 4.70% | 3.30% | 232 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 0.289 | 0.241 | -0.048 | 37.5% | 0.196 | 0.0% | 89.8% | 84.3 | 5.40% | 3.60% | 56 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.315 | 0.339 | 0.024 | 51.7% | 0.228 | 9.1% | 91.4% | 88.2 | 5.80% | 3.90% | 260 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 0.317 | 0.322 | 0.005 | 46.9% | 0.232 | 8.1% | 86.4% | 86.9 | 8.10% | 5.50% | 209 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 0.289 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Luis Castillo has shown enough upside to be interesting at a low cost even in another poor spot. If he strikes out eight or nine again, we can suffer a HR or two.
Value Tier Two
Jeff Samardzija (1) might be the top overall arm on a weak slate. While the drop in strikeout rate is a disappointment, he’s still missing bats at a league average rate and is in a nice spot in a great park.
Jake Arrieta (2) is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, where I might drop him a tier, but quite a bit less on DraftKings. As his bat missing skills have decreased recently, his contact suppression has increased. That matches up pretty well with a contact prone, power deficient Pittsburgh offense.
Value Tier Three
Jose Quintana is not in a favorable spot at Coors because it never is, but the Rockies have been a poor offense, he’s been pitching well and it’s a tough slate.
Mike Clevinger could be in trouble here and would not make the cut on a better slate, but ignoring the highest strikeout rate on the board tonight (more than three starts) is difficult to do. Just realize that there’s also potential for him to walk a few too many and get hammered by a hard hitting offense.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Brandon McCarthy has not been flashing much upside in recent starts, but with increasing velocity, I wouldn’t expect that he’s just suddenly lost it. He’s in a nice spot, has managed contact exceptionally, and costs a very reasonable amount.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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