Advanced Stats – Pitching: Thursday, August 24th
Twelve games altogether on Thursday, split evenly between afternoon and night. All pitchers are listed, but we’ll only be covering the six late games in the notes in order get this posted before first pitch at noon (eastern time).
It’s almost like they just took the middle out of this slate. It’s as strong as any full slate at the top with several great options (not any cheap ones though), but there are also plenty of arms offenses should mash against as well.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 2.1 | 4.69 | 6.04 | 46.7% | 0.96 | 3.87 | TOR | 92 | 91 | 89 | |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -0.3 | 3.87 | 6.25 | 54.3% | 0.98 | 3.64 | 3.52 | SDG | 81 | 87 | 57 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -1.6 | 4.64 | 5.03 | 44.3% | 0.97 | 4.91 | 4.35 | LOS | 100 | 107 | 82 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 5.3 | 3.02 | 6.97 | 39.8% | 1.09 | 3.23 | 2.53 | CLE | 101 | 100 | 81 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | -4.6 | 3.54 | 6.44 | 59.6% | 0.94 | 3.18 | 3.48 | WAS | 95 | 106 | 43 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | -0.1 | 5.2 | 5.37 | 39.1% | 0.98 | 5.19 | 7.76 | MIN | 91 | 91 | 140 |
| German Marquez | COL | -3 | 4.24 | 5.59 | 44.2% | 1.06 | 4.45 | 3.83 | KAN | 90 | 92 | 97 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 3.4 | 4.12 | 5.37 | 45.1% | 0.97 | 4.15 | 5.41 | PIT | 92 | 89 | 109 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 0.9 | 4.14 | 5.83 | 55.5% | 0.98 | 4.46 | 5.23 | DET | 112 | 123 | 98 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4 | 3.73 | 6.32 | 51.3% | 1.02 | 3.99 | 4.3 | CIN | 101 | 100 | 135 |
| Jake Thompson | PHI | 0.8 | 5.63 | 5.27 | 45.9% | 0.96 | 5.32 | MIA | 99 | 96 | 96 | |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 3 | 4.8 | 5.88 | 37.0% | 1.06 | 5.35 | 4.91 | COL | 79 | 81 | 95 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | -0.3 | 4.7 | 5.13 | 38.4% | 0.98 | 5.52 | 5.02 | CHW | 90 | 87 | 95 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -3.9 | 4.14 | 5.69 | 60.6% | 0.98 | 3.96 | 4.56 | STL | 105 | 100 | 137 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.8 | 5 | 5.89 | 51.0% | 0.91 | 4.88 | 4.97 | ANA | 100 | 78 | 133 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 1 | 4.21 | 6.35 | 49.1% | 0.98 | 4.08 | 5.19 | NYY | 101 | 112 | 127 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 1.7 | 4.73 | 4.86 | 45.0% | 0.91 | 4.92 | 4.36 | ARI | 80 | 97 | 66 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -5.2 | 3.77 | 5.54 | 44.1% | 0.91 | 3.45 | NYM | 90 | 92 | 86 | |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 6.2 | 5.07 | 5.02 | 49.6% | 1.02 | 5.95 | 4.41 | CHC | 95 | 97 | 135 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 2 | 3.13 | 6.18 | 41.4% | 0.94 | 3.25 | 2.48 | HOU | 121 | 126 | 82 |
| Tom Koehler | TOR | -0.7 | 4.98 | 5.3 | 41.9% | 0.96 | 4.98 | TAM | 101 | 103 | 115 | |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 1.1 | 4.13 | 5.85 | 47.2% | 1.09 | 3.8 | 3.17 | BOS | 93 | 92 | 102 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 4.1 | 5.79 | 4.5 | 24.3% | 0.91 | 6.95 | 3.89 | TEX | 82 | 100 | 124 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 1.8 | 4.77 | 4.94 | 48.8% | 0.96 | 5.04 | 5.47 | PHI | 97 | 88 | 116 |
Carlos Martinez has allowed 14 HRs over his last 11 starts with an 18.5 Hard-Soft%, while still maintaining a 53.1 GB%, but with just a league average 13.6 K-BB%. Yet over his last six starts, he has a 60.4 GB% and 16.4 K-BB%, though still a 16.8 Hard-Soft%. Part of it is obviously about cherry picking your endpoints, but the point is that the stuff has been good enough to keep the ball on the ground, but not as dominant as he had been recently. The good news is that he may be in the top spot on the slate against the Padres (25.9 K% on the road, 25.3 K% vs RHP, 20.7 K-BB% last seven days).
Chris Sale leads the majors by nearly two full points with a 31.9 K-BB%. He’s become an extreme fly ball pitcher this year (36.7 GB%), but without a lot of hard contact (86.2 mph aEV, 29.5% 95+ mph EV). He has at least nine strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 starts and 21 of 24. Cleveland is an average offense in a tough park. They have just a 7.7 K-BB% vs LHP this year.
Dallas Keuchel has now struck out three or fewer in four of his five starts since returning from the DL. However, he’s thrown 13.2 innings of one run ball over his last two start. His last start in particular was a mixed back with an 89.5 GB%, but 40% hard hit rate. For the season, his 84 mph aEV is lowest on the slate with a 66.2 GB% that leads the league by nearly three full points among those with at least 100 innings pitched. His 9.7 SwStr% is league average since returning, even if overall strikeouts are down. He’s facing an above average Washington offense against LHP and one that still has the majority of their top RH bats healthy, but they have a 27 K% and 6 HR/FB over the last week.
Jake Arrieta hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in a start since the All-Star break. He’s done that with a 15.2 K-BB%, 46.8 GB% and 5.6 Hard-Soft%. It’s the weak contact that’s been the key and should help him get through one of the more difficult matchups on the slate against a hot Cincinnati offense. They have just a 5.6 K-BB% and 22 HR/FB over the last week.
Stephen Strasburg struck out eight of 22 batters faced in his return from the DL. While this seems like perhaps his best season, his 21.2 K-BB% is actually below his career rate by a point, though his 12.7 SwStr% is a career high with just a 5.7 Hard-Soft%. While he has one of the worst matchups on the board against a Houston offense that rarely strikes out tonight (16.5% at home, 17.3% vs RHP, 14.8% last seven days), it’s an offense that has been struggling recently.
Trevor Bauer has done a nice job of increasing his SwStr% (above 8% in five straight starts) to meet his strikeout rate over the last month, rather than watch his strikeout rate drop to meet an unsupportive SwStr%. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in five straight starts too, but his 88.9 mph aEV is still highest on the slate without any relief in sight. The Red Sox have been a below average offense that strikes out slightly less than average with little power. The park makes it somewhat of a neutral to slightly unfriendly matchup.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Luis Perdomo is not getting the strikeouts, but does have a nearly league average SwStr%. While he doesn’t project strongly against a hot St Louis offense, they do lean heavily right-handed. While RHBs have nine of the 14 HRs he’s allowed, he’s generated a 68.1 GB% against them.
Jose Berrios is not really missing as many bats as was hoped. His 28.3% 95+ mph EV is lowest on the slate though.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 15.8% | 6.2% | Home | 19.4% | 5.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.5% | 8.6% | Home | 22.3% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 3.9% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.7% | Home | 17.7% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 14.0% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.0% | 4.8% | Road | 30.5% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 5.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 22.1% | 6.7% | Home | 21.0% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 7.7% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.7% | 9.5% | Home | 16.8% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 21.1% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 21.0% | 7.2% | Road | 21.6% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 4.2% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 22.7% | 7.6% | Road | 23.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Jaime Garcia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.4% | 8.0% | Road | 17.8% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 12.2% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.5% | 8.0% | Road | 21.3% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 10.2% |
| Jake Thompson | Phillies | L2 Years | 13.7% | 11.4% | Home | 16.2% | 12.5% | L14 Days | ||
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Years | 18.2% | 7.4% | Home | 15.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 2.7% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 19.9% | 9.1% | Road | 18.0% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 7.0% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 16.5% | 7.8% | Road | 17.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 7.6% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.3% | 8.4% | Road | 12.1% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 5.1% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.9% | 6.2% | Home | 18.3% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 10.2% |
| Rafael Montero | Mets | L2 Years | 22.0% | 12.4% | Home | 20.4% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 11.9% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 28.4% | 10.4% | Road | 31.1% | 10.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 17.8% | 10.6% | Home | 15.4% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 5.9% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.8% | 6.8% | Road | 29.8% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 4.6% |
| Tom Koehler | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 18.5% | 11.1% | Road | 18.1% | 11.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.8% | 9.1% | Home | 22.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 29.1% | 4.7% |
| Troy Scribner | Angels | L2 Years | 17.3% | 9.6% | Home | 17.5% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.2% | 8.8% | Road | 13.9% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 9.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.4% | 9.3% | RH | 20.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 27.0% | 6.6% |
| Padres | Road | 25.9% | 7.2% | RH | 25.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 26.8% | 6.1% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.1% | 10.8% | RH | 22.1% | 10.3% | L7Days | 18.6% | 10.9% |
| Indians | Home | 19.5% | 10.1% | LH | 17.9% | 10.2% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.2% | 8.6% | LH | 21.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 27.0% | 9.8% |
| Twins | Road | 21.7% | 9.2% | LH | 20.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 23.0% | 10.3% |
| Royals | Home | 18.8% | 6.7% | RH | 20.1% | 6.6% | L7Days | 17.1% | 5.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.2% | 8.9% | LH | 20.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 19.9% | 8.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.9% | 8.7% | LH | 18.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 27.3% | 5.5% |
| Reds | Home | 21.4% | 9.4% | RH | 20.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 17.1% | 11.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.5% | 6.8% | RH | 20.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.4% | 7.7% | RH | 22.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.8% | 13.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.3% | 7.3% | RH | 22.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.4% | 9.9% | RH | 21.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.2% | 9.1% |
| Angels | Home | 18.0% | 8.0% | LH | 19.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 13.5% | 12.7% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.2% | 9.1% | RH | 22.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.1% | 8.6% | RH | 23.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.3% | 8.1% |
| Mets | Home | 20.5% | 8.4% | LH | 24.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.4% | 9.6% | RH | 22.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.7% | 10.8% |
| Astros | Home | 16.5% | 7.9% | RH | 17.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 14.8% | 8.1% |
| Rays | Home | 25.5% | 9.4% | RH | 24.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.4% | 8.7% | RH | 19.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.7% | 9.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.2% | 8.0% | RH | 23.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.0% | 12.2% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.8% | 8.5% | RH | 23.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.8% | 7.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 36.4% | 13.6% | 21.6% | 2017 | 37.6% | 12.3% | 23.3% | Home | 39.7% | 13.4% | 23.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.4% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 2017 | 33.4% | 16.8% | 14.7% | Home | 28.7% | 14.9% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 27.3% | 10.2% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.1% | 8.5% | 14.9% | 2017 | 33.2% | 8.3% | 15.9% | Home | 33.3% | 11.0% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 14.3% | 41.7% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.5% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 2017 | 28.0% | 8.9% | 10.6% | Road | 29.5% | 5.4% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 14.3% | 12.5% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 28.0% | 17.4% | 3.8% | 2017 | 26.1% | 18.5% | -0.3% | Home | 27.2% | 11.1% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 16.7% | 15.7% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 35.4% | 14.8% | 18.4% | 2017 | 38.2% | 18.4% | 20.1% | Home | 34.6% | 12.0% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 37.5% | 34.6% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 34.7% | 12.8% | 19.2% | 2017 | 35.8% | 12.3% | 19.9% | Road | 36.7% | 8.6% | 21.1% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 44.4% | 28.6% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 36.5% | 17.0% | 18.1% | 2017 | 36.0% | 17.0% | 16.8% | Road | 37.4% | 8.5% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 7.1% | 20.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.0% | 15.1% | 10.5% | 2017 | 30.2% | 13.5% | 8.5% | Road | 30.6% | 13.1% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 27.3% | 29.4% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.6% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 2017 | 28.1% | 12.9% | 6.9% | Road | 28.0% | 14.7% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 0.0% | 6.2% |
| Jake Thompson | Phillies | L2 Years | 35.6% | 16.9% | 20.9% | 2017 | 40.4% | 18.2% | 25.0% | Home | 30.9% | 16.0% | 14.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Years | 38.8% | 13.5% | 23.6% | 2017 | 38.8% | 13.5% | 23.6% | Home | 43.1% | 7.1% | 32.0% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 7.7% | 13.8% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 29.8% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 2017 | 27.6% | 9.9% | 6.2% | Road | 31.4% | 13.9% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 9.1% | 21.8% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.4% | 20.0% | 16.5% | 2017 | 32.6% | 17.7% | 15.4% | Road | 33.3% | 22.9% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 30.0% | 14.2% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.7% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 2017 | 34.6% | 13.2% | 20.2% | Road | 33.7% | 11.3% | 18.9% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.3% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 2017 | 30.2% | 8.1% | 12.8% | Home | 33.6% | 8.4% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 12.5% | 17.2% |
| Rafael Montero | Mets | L2 Years | 26.8% | 14.9% | 8.2% | 2017 | 25.6% | 13.2% | 6.8% | Home | 24.0% | 8.8% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 22.2% | -2.5% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 37.6% | 14.5% | 20.6% | 2017 | 42.0% | 13.8% | 24.2% | Road | 36.0% | 12.9% | 18.9% | L14 Days | |||
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 33.6% | 12.8% | 13.7% | 2017 | 33.6% | 12.8% | 13.7% | Home | 41.3% | 18.2% | 22.2% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 16.7% | 13.2% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.6% | 11.4% | 5.2% | 2017 | 26.2% | 11.0% | 5.7% | Road | 23.6% | 7.6% | 0.3% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 20.0% | -15.4% |
| Tom Koehler | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.7% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 2017 | 34.8% | 21.7% | 18.8% | Road | 28.7% | 14.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 32.8% | 12.1% | 14.9% | 2017 | 35.2% | 16.1% | 20.4% | Home | 33.1% | 16.0% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 15.8% |
| Troy Scribner | Angels | L2 Years | 29.7% | 12.0% | 8.1% | 2017 | 29.7% | 12.0% | 8.1% | Home | 25.9% | 10.5% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 33.0% | 9.8% | 16.6% | 2017 | 37.2% | 6.4% | 20.8% | Road | 33.3% | 14.5% | 19.9% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 0.0% | -3.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.7% | 15.1% | 12.3% | RH | 31.1% | 15.1% | 11.4% | L7Days | 40.0% | 20.7% | 25.3% |
| Padres | Road | 31.2% | 15.0% | 9.4% | RH | 30.0% | 14.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 31.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.5% | 14.5% | 18.3% | RH | 35.8% | 14.8% | 20.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 7.9% | 13.4% |
| Indians | Home | 30.7% | 12.6% | 12.3% | LH | 31.3% | 12.4% | 13.0% | L7Days | 33.0% | 15.1% | 15.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.1% | 14.8% | 13.0% | LH | 32.3% | 15.0% | 13.7% | L7Days | 30.6% | 6.0% | 14.9% |
| Twins | Road | 30.6% | 12.7% | 13.2% | LH | 30.1% | 10.0% | 11.2% | L7Days | 31.9% | 26.0% | 18.8% |
| Royals | Home | 29.8% | 10.7% | 8.9% | RH | 31.2% | 12.2% | 11.6% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.5% | -4.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 30.0% | 10.5% | 8.5% | LH | 30.7% | 13.2% | 10.3% | L7Days | 35.6% | 20.3% | 15.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 44.7% | 13.6% | 31.0% | LH | 39.6% | 16.8% | 23.9% | L7Days | 38.8% | 16.7% | 23.9% |
| Reds | Home | 28.6% | 16.4% | 7.6% | RH | 29.8% | 15.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 28.0% | 22.0% | 6.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.3% | 14.8% | 8.8% | RH | 31.3% | 15.1% | 11.2% | L7Days | 24.8% | 17.8% | -0.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.2% | 11.6% | 8.0% | RH | 30.9% | 13.2% | 10.9% | L7Days | 37.6% | 13.6% | 17.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.5% | 13.2% | 7.4% | RH | 30.1% | 13.4% | 10.8% | L7Days | 26.3% | 12.7% | 7.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.1% | 12.9% | 12.8% | RH | 31.9% | 13.0% | 13.4% | L7Days | 46.9% | 26.2% | 33.8% |
| Angels | Home | 29.1% | 12.7% | 9.8% | LH | 29.5% | 9.0% | 11.1% | L7Days | 32.2% | 22.2% | 10.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.3% | 12.7% | 12.6% | RH | 31.2% | 16.6% | 12.1% | L7Days | 33.9% | 20.3% | 16.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.0% | 13.8% | 11.1% | RH | 34.8% | 14.8% | 17.5% | L7Days | 31.7% | 14.1% | 11.7% |
| Mets | Home | 33.4% | 11.9% | 14.0% | LH | 34.9% | 14.4% | 14.4% | L7Days | 30.5% | 15.1% | 7.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.9% | 14.8% | 10.7% | RH | 31.4% | 15.4% | 13.6% | L7Days | 33.1% | 17.9% | 16.8% |
| Astros | Home | 30.6% | 15.3% | 13.0% | RH | 33.1% | 15.4% | 15.9% | L7Days | 27.3% | 11.9% | 7.4% |
| Rays | Home | 36.6% | 15.2% | 18.8% | RH | 34.9% | 16.9% | 16.8% | L7Days | 33.5% | 15.2% | 18.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 31.9% | 11.8% | 11.7% | RH | 33.7% | 11.3% | 15.8% | L7Days | 25.2% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.7% | 16.2% | 10.4% | RH | 35.0% | 17.8% | 16.6% | L7Days | 38.5% | 19.0% | 21.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.3% | 15.5% | 8.4% | RH | 30.3% | 12.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 33.7% | 23.1% | 13.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 15.8% | 6.7% | 2.36 | 17.9% | 5.7% | 3.14 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 25.5% | 10.4% | 2.45 | 25.2% | 9.7% | 2.60 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.03 | 24.1% | 8.5% | 2.84 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 36.6% | 15.2% | 2.41 | 37.0% | 11.8% | 3.14 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 21.4% | 10.3% | 2.08 | 14.3% | 9.7% | 1.47 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 16.5% | 7.2% | 2.29 | 10.2% | 4.8% | 2.13 |
| German Marquez | COL | 22.1% | 9.4% | 2.35 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 2.32 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 23.0% | 11.7% | 1.97 | 26.1% | 11.4% | 2.29 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 18.3% | 11.3% | 1.62 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 1.94 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 23.0% | 9.2% | 2.50 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 2.54 |
| Jake Thompson | PHI | 14.3% | 7.5% | 1.91 | 15.6% | 5.4% | 2.89 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 18.2% | 9.0% | 2.02 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 2.26 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 21.5% | 9.1% | 2.36 | 18.4% | 7.4% | 2.49 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 17.3% | 9.2% | 1.88 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 1.65 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 14.4% | 7.7% | 1.87 | 12.3% | 8.2% | 1.50 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 17.4% | 9.6% | 1.81 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 1.57 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 22.1% | 10.4% | 2.13 | 23.5% | 12.2% | 1.93 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 30.6% | 13.2% | 2.32 | 28.6% | 12.0% | 2.38 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 17.8% | 7.8% | 2.28 | 15.1% | 7.3% | 2.07 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 28.4% | 12.8% | 2.22 | 36.4% | 15.4% | 2.36 |
| Tom Koehler | TOR | 17.0% | 8.6% | 1.98 | |||
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 25.8% | 8.9% | 2.90 | 26.2% | 10.8% | 2.43 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 17.3% | 9.8% | 1.77 | 17.3% | 9.8% | 1.77 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 15.2% | 5.3% | 2.87 | 9.9% | 5.5% | 1.80 |
Chris Sale had a 7.5 SwStr% four starts back, but has been above 12% in each one since with increased velocity. However, he’s been below his SwStr% season average in six straight starts.
Dallas Keuchel actually has a double digit SwStr% in four of five starts since returning and three straight.
Trevor Bauer has increased his SwStr% substantially over the last month.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 3.8 | 4.72 | 0.92 | 4.49 | 0.69 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 4.08 | 0.28 | 5.63 | 4.43 | -1.2 | 3.96 | -1.67 | 4.82 | -0.81 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.57 | 3.84 | 0.27 | 3.62 | 0.05 | 3.93 | 0.36 | 3.36 | -0.21 | 4.5 | 3.5 | -1 | 3.26 | -1.24 | 4.35 | -0.15 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 4.52 | 4.73 | 0.21 | 4.52 | 0 | 3.84 | -0.68 | 4.30 | -0.22 | 3.18 | 4.56 | 1.38 | 4.21 | 1.03 | 3.2 | 0.02 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.62 | 2.51 | -0.11 | 2.67 | 0.05 | 2.04 | -0.58 | 2.12 | -0.50 | 3.18 | 2.46 | -0.72 | 2.75 | -0.43 | 2.43 | -0.75 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 2.58 | 3.59 | 1.01 | 3.31 | 0.73 | 3.64 | 1.06 | 2.51 | -0.07 | 5.26 | 4.78 | -0.48 | 4.54 | -0.72 | 5.24 | -0.02 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 6.28 | 5.51 | -0.77 | 5.69 | -0.59 | 6.44 | 0.16 | 7.66 | 1.38 | 11.81 | 7.76 | -4.05 | 7.97 | -3.84 | 8.57 | -3.24 |
| German Marquez | COL | 4.24 | 4.24 | 0 | 4.21 | -0.03 | 4.01 | -0.23 | 5.23 | 0.99 | 4.34 | 4.07 | -0.27 | 4 | -0.34 | 4.38 | 0.04 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 3.45 | 4.08 | 0.63 | 3.93 | 0.48 | 4.31 | 0.86 | 4.24 | 0.79 | 1.55 | 3.99 | 2.44 | 3.72 | 2.17 | 2.62 | 1.07 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 4.52 | 4.62 | 0.1 | 4.28 | -0.24 | 4.24 | -0.28 | 4.93 | 0.41 | 5.64 | 5.03 | -0.61 | 4.62 | -1.02 | 4.84 | -0.8 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.63 | 4.11 | 0.48 | 4.06 | 0.43 | 3.95 | 0.32 | 4.14 | 0.51 | 1.95 | 4.03 | 2.08 | 4.19 | 2.24 | 3.1 | 1.15 |
| Jake Thompson | PHI | 4.2 | 5.45 | 1.25 | 6.04 | 1.84 | 6.87 | 2.67 | 8.60 | 4.40 | 1.8 | 4.87 | 3.07 | 5.27 | 3.47 | 6.83 | 5.03 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 4.99 | 4.8 | -0.19 | 5.45 | 0.46 | 5.39 | 0.4 | 4.97 | -0.02 | 3.63 | 4.07 | 0.44 | 4.81 | 1.18 | 2.96 | -0.67 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 3.99 | 4.32 | 0.33 | 4.58 | 0.59 | 4 | 0.01 | 3.92 | -0.07 | 5.47 | 4.81 | -0.66 | 4.96 | -0.51 | 4.12 | -1.35 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 4.93 | 4.27 | -0.66 | 4.1 | -0.83 | 4.43 | -0.5 | 5.64 | 0.71 | 5.58 | 4.81 | -0.77 | 4.39 | -1.19 | 4.8 | -0.78 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 5.26 | 5.09 | -0.17 | 4.77 | -0.49 | 4.69 | -0.57 | 5.19 | -0.07 | 6.75 | 5.21 | -1.54 | 5.03 | -1.72 | 5.61 | -1.14 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 3.6 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 4.16 | 0.56 | 3.5 | -0.1 | 3.13 | -0.47 | 4.85 | 4.55 | -0.3 | 4.07 | -0.78 | 4.33 | -0.52 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 5.47 | 4.57 | -0.9 | 4.57 | -0.9 | 4.48 | -0.99 | 5.52 | 0.05 | 5.68 | 4.53 | -1.15 | 4.25 | -1.43 | 5.46 | -0.22 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.11 | 3.89 | 0.78 | 3.89 | 0.78 | 3.88 | 0.77 | 3.97 | 0.86 | 0 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 3.61 | 3.61 | 2.53 | 2.53 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 5.32 | 5.06 | -0.26 | 5.01 | -0.31 | 4.86 | -0.46 | 5.84 | 0.52 | 5.2 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 4.99 | -0.21 | 4.58 | -0.62 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 3.24 | 3.52 | 0.28 | 3.47 | 0.23 | 3.13 | -0.11 | 2.98 | -0.26 | 3 | 2.48 | -0.52 | 2.47 | -0.53 | 3.13 | 0.13 |
| Tom Koehler | TOR | 7.92 | 5.4 | -2.52 | 5.62 | -2.3 | 6.89 | -1.03 | 7.12 | -0.80 | |||||||
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 4.5 | 3.87 | -0.63 | 3.61 | -0.89 | 3.87 | -0.63 | 4.51 | 0.01 | 1.51 | 3.43 | 1.92 | 3.16 | 1.65 | 3.41 | 1.9 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 3.46 | 5.79 | 2.33 | 6.59 | 3.13 | 6.13 | 2.67 | 7.26 | 3.80 | 3.46 | 5.79 | 2.33 | 6.59 | 3.13 | 6.13 | 2.67 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 4.82 | 4.64 | -0.18 | 4.55 | -0.27 | 3.74 | -1.08 | 5.78 | 0.96 | 2.96 | 5.03 | 2.07 | 4.83 | 1.87 | 4.12 | 1.16 |
Dallas Keuchel has a .255 BABIP, which is fine if he’s generating tons of weak ground balls, but they haven’t been as weak since he’s returned and he rarely generates popups. An 83.5 LOB% is still primed for regression.
Jake Arrieta has a .231 BABIP, 81.7 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB since the All-Star break.
Trevor Bauer has a .343 BABIP. His profile doesn’t look that bad, but he allows a lot of hard contact.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.284 | 0.276 | -0.008 | 45.7% | 0.228 | 7.5% | 91.1% | 88.2 | 6.00% | 36.50% | 468 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.294 | 0.277 | -0.017 | 51.9% | 0.175 | 8.4% | 86.5% | 86.9 | 5.30% | 34.10% | 434 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.308 | 0.316 | 0.008 | 44.4% | 0.226 | 6.7% | 85.9% | 87.4 | 4.90% | 36.90% | 371 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.305 | 0.286 | -0.019 | 36.7% | 0.2 | 11.8% | 78.8% | 86.2 | 5.60% | 29.50% | 396 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.295 | 0.255 | -0.04 | 66.2% | 0.144 | 3.7% | 87.1% | 84 | 5.60% | 31.00% | 284 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.288 | 0.307 | 0.019 | 39.3% | 0.213 | 8.2% | 88.6% | 88.1 | 8.40% | 39.50% | 403 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.302 | 0.302 | 0 | 42.0% | 0.23 | 9.0% | 88.9% | 88.7 | 7.10% | 36.60% | 352 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 0.280 | 0.308 | 0.028 | 45.3% | 0.22 | 9.6% | 82.8% | 87.2 | 6.50% | 32.20% | 292 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 0.290 | 0.296 | 0.006 | 54.9% | 0.179 | 6.3% | 86.5% | 86.4 | 5.30% | 36.20% | 414 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.283 | 0.279 | -0.004 | 46.0% | 0.205 | 8.6% | 85.6% | 86.8 | 5.30% | 32.00% | 416 |
| Jake Thompson | PHI | 0.297 | 0.333 | 0.036 | 44.2% | 0.135 | 4.5% | 93.6% | 88.9 | 11.50% | 42.30% | 52 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 0.299 | 0.284 | -0.015 | 37.0% | 0.173 | 9.5% | 87.1% | 89.2 | 6.70% | 37.60% | 165 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.298 | 0.271 | -0.027 | 38.7% | 0.21 | 10.7% | 86.3% | 85.3 | 4.90% | 28.30% | 304 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.307 | 0.332 | 0.025 | 62.7% | 0.168 | 8.9% | 90.0% | 87.1 | 4.90% | 35.40% | 390 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.289 | 0.333 | 0.044 | 45.4% | 0.25 | 6.6% | 90.7% | 87.1 | 5.80% | 34.40% | 465 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.309 | 0.274 | -0.035 | 49.0% | 0.219 | 9.6% | 88.6% | 85.8 | 4.90% | 28.50% | 471 |
| Rafael Montero | NYM | 0.320 | 0.375 | 0.055 | 47.3% | 0.19 | 9.2% | 84.0% | 83.9 | 5.10% | 27.40% | 234 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.294 | 0.272 | -0.022 | 38.9% | 0.189 | 9.5% | 81.4% | 89 | 6.80% | 43.40% | 281 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 0.293 | 0.314 | 0.021 | 49.6% | 0.161 | 8.5% | 87.5% | 85.8 | 6.20% | 36.30% | 146 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.293 | 0.282 | -0.011 | 44.5% | 0.195 | 10.2% | 83.9% | 87.3 | 7.20% | 31.30% | 332 |
| Tom Koehler | TOR | 0.307 | 0.313 | 0.006 | 38.1% | 0.227 | 7.2% | 86.9% | 87.7 | 7.70% | 35.40% | 181 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.303 | 0.343 | 0.04 | 45.8% | 0.225 | 10.2% | 88.3% | 88.9 | 8.20% | 38.40% | 378 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 0.285 | 0.118 | -0.167 | 24.3% | 0.081 | 20.0% | 87.0% | 88.5 | 10.80% | 37.80% | 37 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 0.293 | 0.333 | 0.04 | 51.9% | 0.221 | 8.5% | 92.8% | 87.7 | 2.70% | 36.10% | 183 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Chris Sale (1) is the top pitcher on the board and the most expensive one a spot that is not ideal, but not terrible.
Stephen Strasburg (2) is not in a high upside spot. The Astros still aren’t striking out, but they aren’t hitting the ball with as much authority recently and he costs a full $3K less than Sale on DraftKings. I’d probably bump him down a tier for just $800 less on FanDuel.
Value Tier Two
Dallas Keuchel (3) is not generating as many strikeouts with contact as weak as previously, but he is getting swings and misses and keeping the ball on the ground at a high rate still. He’s also catching a struggling Washington lineup at the right time.
Value Tier Three
Carlos Martinez (4) has caught the HR bug, but he’s still otherwise generating lots of ground balls and missing enough bats. He should get a boost tonight against the Padres, who don’t really have much LH power.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Trevor Bauer strikes out enough batters that he can be considered here for less than $9K, especially with the increase in SwStr%. Unmentioned has been just a 4.8 BB% over the last month. I figured I owed readers at least one pitcher priced below $10K ($9K on FanDuel).
Jake Arrieta has been smothering contact and that more than anything else has led to this resurgence, although there are also some regression worthy numbers in there. Cincinnati has a real offense in a small park. It’s not an easy spot and I probably won’t be on him myself tonight, but he barely makes the cut on a small slate.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window