Advanced Stats – Pitching: Thursday, August 31st
This is going to be it for us on the season. The last article of the year lands on a six-game Thursday night slate (10 games overall). After last night’s Keuchel disaster, maybe I’m not leaving soon enough. While it would be nice to end on a strong slate, that’s not going to happen. There are some usable pitchers though and that’s all you can really ask from a slate this small.
Thank you to everyone for reading and to RotoGrinders for supplying the outlet once again. I’ll attempt to drop some stuff that would normally land here into the Alerts going forward each weekday, so make sure you’re signed up for those.
Good luck to everyone still playing daily fantasy baseball and those about to embark on the NFL journey. September is actually one of the most profitable times of the season for savvy MLB players due to the influx of new or returning players.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | -0.3 | 4.64 | 5.72 | 43.5% | 1.04 | 4.05 | 5.68 | CHW | 92 | 89 | 85 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 0.8 | 5.5 | 5.91 | 39.7% | 0.94 | 6.09 | 3.97 | MIA | 97 | 98 | 109 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.9 | 4.44 | 5.79 | 49.7% | 1.01 | 4.07 | 4.05 | BOS | 96 | 101 | 95 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | -4.6 | 3.99 | 5.7 | 40.5% | 0.94 | 4.08 | 3.83 | TEX | 84 | 100 | 95 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 5.3 | 4.2 | 5.59 | 33.4% | 1.01 | 4.39 | 3.79 | NYY | 109 | 90 | 72 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 2 | 4.11 | 5.94 | 47.2% | 1.02 | 4.29 | 4.29 | MIL | 91 | 89 | 52 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 1.7 | 3.46 | 6.33 | 45.3% | 1.02 | 3.34 | 2.63 | CIN | 101 | 101 | 86 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | -6 | 4.57 | 5.7 | 38.0% | 1.02 | 4.41 | 5.86 | TOR | 91 | 90 | 65 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 3.4 | 3.75 | 5.43 | 41.7% | 1.13 | 3.8 | 3.01 | ARI | 106 | 97 | 116 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4 | 3.76 | 5.95 | 48.5% | 0.96 | 3.45 | 3.38 | ATL | 92 | 89 | 106 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | -4.1 | 3.46 | 6.68 | 40.7% | 0.93 | 3.54 | 3.28 | STL | 96 | 102 | 97 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -0.7 | 4.52 | 5.92 | 32.1% | 1.02 | 4.74 | 4.59 | BAL | 110 | 102 | 148 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -0.3 | 4.31 | 5.38 | 47.4% | 0.93 | 4.19 | 4.62 | SFO | 81 | 82 | 58 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | -0.1 | 5 | 5.87 | 39.3% | 1.04 | 5.33 | 3.87 | MIN | 105 | 101 | 140 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.8 | 5.39 | 5.37 | 43.5% | 0.94 | 5.57 | 3.97 | HOU | 120 | 124 | 60 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | 1.8 | 5.5 | 4.67 | 40.6% | 0.94 | 5.31 | 6.23 | PHI | 77 | 87 | 97 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 6.2 | 5.02 | 4.85 | 37.5% | 1.02 | 4.53 | 4.46 | NYM | 105 | 99 | 92 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | -1 | 4.92 | 5.29 | 42.4% | 0.96 | 4.06 | 5.86 | CHC | 106 | 110 | 128 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 47.9% | 1.02 | 4.08 | 3.57 | WAS | 93 | 104 | 106 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -5.2 | 3.69 | 6.35 | 47.8% | 1.13 | 3.65 | 3.59 | LOS | 102 | 106 | 95 |
Eduardo Rodriguez allowed four HRs in his first start of June before immediately hitting the DL with a knee injury. He returned right after the All-Star break with similar peripherals (16.4 K-BB%, 10.1 SwStr%) over eight starts and even a similar contact profile (35.4 GB%, 33.6 Hard%), but an ERA above five due to a 67.3 LOB% that’s six points below his season and career rate. While the amount of hard contact in the air is a bit concerning (8.7% Barrels/BBE is highest on the slate), it’s good news that the strand rate seems to be the culprit. Further good news is the struggles of the Yankees against LHP (7.9 Hard-Soft%) and overall recently (-0.5 Hard-Soft% last seven days). They are third best against fly ball pitchers though (113 sOPS+).
Gio Gonzalez still has a .242 BABIP and 85.8 LOB% that are considered unsustainable over the long run, but has also pitched into the seventh inning in five of his last six starts with one or fewer walks in four of them. His 27.2 95+ mph EV is lowest on the board. The Brewers have power, especially at home (19.2 HR/FB), but have been just average against LHP (14.7 HR/FB), while they strike out a ton in any situation (26.5% at home, 26.4% vs LHP, 34.7% over the last week).
Kyle Hendricks struck out a season high eight last time out in Philadelphia. That pushes him to a 24 K% and 11.7 SwStr% in five August starts. His 40.5 GB% is the lowest of any month this season, but with just a 4.8 Hard-Soft%. The Braves do not strike out much (just 16% over the last week), but don’t make a lot of hard contact either (11.1 HR/FB vs RHP, 6.9 HR/FB over the last week).
Madison Bumgarner has struck out exactly seven in five of his last six starts, going exactly seven innings in four of those starts. He has a 20.1 K-BB% over that span. While it’s his lowest K% since 2012, it’s still good enough for second best on the slate. His 87.4 mph aEV and 34.5% 95+ mph EV are both second highest on the slate as well. That’s less of a concern in San Francisco and those numbers aren’t outrageous. The Cardinals are an improved offense against LHP recently and appear a somewhat neutral matchup before the park adjustment pushes it in the pitcher’s favor.
Michael Wacha has not struck out more than five in over a month with a below average SwStr% in three of his last four. He has allowed seven HRs over his last seven starts, but has a hard hit rate below 20% in three of those starts. While the Giants aren’t going to do much to help the first problem, the second one doesn’t even seem like much of an issue and may take care of itself in San Francisco (6.1 HR/FB at home, 8.9 HR/FB vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
C.C. Sabathia (.268 – 75.8% – 14.7) has the lowest BABIP of his career without any outstanding characteristics, including a career low 6.9 IFFB%. He does have an 84.8 mph aEV and 4.0% Barrels/BBE. Since the All-Star break (seven starts), his contact profile has been nearly immaculate with a 50.4 GB% and -13.9 Hard-Soft%. Contact suppression extends to both sides, as he’s faced only 33 LHBs over this span. He has just a 9.0 K-BB% over this span though, which does not match up well with Boston’s 5.8 K-BB% vs LHP. His 49.7 GB% for the season is actually highest on the board today.
Zach Davies (.298 – 74.3% – 11.6) has a 9.4% unearned run rate, which isn’t too high. What he has done is generate a lot of weak contact with an 85.6 mph aEV and 4.3% Barrels/BBE, which has helped him keep his HR rate down in a tough park and also caused a gap between his ERA and non-FIP estimators that I’m not entirely sure deserves to be more than half a run. While he may not belong here, he’s still not a pitcher we’d wish to use today. His bat missing skills have cratered this season. However, his contact suppression has continued to improve with just a 22.8 Hard% over his last eight starts. Washington got a couple of starters back this week (Werth, Turner), but still have just a 1.4 Hard-Soft% over the last seven days.
Ben Lively (.290 – 73% – 10.6) has a 10.3% unearned run rate. He also has a 12.8 K% (7.4 SwStr%), but with an 85 mph aEV (29.9% 95+ mph EV). He struck out eight with a 14.6 SwStr% in his last start, also allowing four HRs.
Odrisamer Despaigne (.253 – 59.5% – 2.9) is all discombobulated in many different ways in just 24 innings this season with more than half coming out the pen. He did complete six innings in his second start of the season (first since May), but struck out just one of 24 Padres. Most pitchers don’t even need to be throwing with the correct hand to do that. He did have a 10.3 SwStr% though and his 81.4 mph aEV this season is lowest on the board. Newsflash: even with Rhys Hoskins, the Phillies are still terrible and the second best matchup on the board.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jeremy Hellickson has allowed seven HRs over his last three starts, five of them in one outing. He’s also struck out just eight of 72 batters. Toronto is recognized as a fairly decent matchup at this point. They are also third worst in the majors against fly ball pitchers (87 sOPS+), but none of that is nearly enough.
Marco Estrada has remedied his earlier season control issues somewhat, but is still only missing bats at an average rate and is in a bad spot in Baltimore (21.0 HR/FB last seven days, 17.7 HR/FB at home) for an extreme fly ball pitcher generating average contact authority. The Orioles also have a top 10 104 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers.
Sean Newcomb is now up to a 13.1 BB% for the season and has dropped below a league average SwStr% over the last month. His 87.7 mph aEV and 35.1% 95+ mph EV are both highest on the slate. The Cubs have an 11 BB% and 17.2 HR/FB vs LHP. There’s likely to be a lot of Atlanta bullpen in this one.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Twins | L2 Years | 14.7% | 4.5% | Home | 19.2% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 5.4% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Years | 12.8% | 7.5% | Road | 8.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 8.9% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.6% | Home | 20.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 4.0% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 22.4% | 6.8% | Home | 23.5% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 6.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 23.5% | 8.5% | Road | 24.1% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 5.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.9% | 8.7% | Road | 20.2% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 3.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.6% | 6.3% | Road | 23.3% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 1.7% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Orioles | L2 Years | 17.5% | 5.9% | Home | 18.8% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.9% | 6.6% | Road | 24.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 4.6% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 23.1% | 6.5% | Home | 22.5% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 4.0% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 26.2% | 5.5% | Home | 26.6% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 3.9% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.0% | 8.9% | Road | 22.9% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 4.1% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.3% | 8.4% | Road | 19.8% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.5% | 7.3% | Road | 14.2% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 7.1% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 12.3% | 8.1% | Road | 12.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 7.7% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Marlins | L2 Years | 12.6% | 11.2% | Home | 12.2% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 8.1% | 8.1% |
| Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 20.5% | 12.9% | Home | 24.2% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 13.7% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 22.6% | 13.1% | Road | 30.8% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 14.6% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 17.7% | 6.7% | Home | 19.2% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 3.9% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.7% | 5.9% | Home | 24.0% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 8.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | Road | 21.9% | 6.1% | RH | 22.9% | 6.8% | L7Days | 30.0% | 7.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.9% | 8.6% | RH | 20.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.7% | 9.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.5% | 8.8% | LH | 17.0% | 11.2% | L7Days | 18.7% | 10.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.0% | 7.9% | RH | 23.8% | 9.2% | L7Days | 24.0% | 7.3% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.7% | 10.3% | LH | 22.8% | 10.1% | L7Days | 16.9% | 11.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.5% | 8.4% | LH | 26.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 34.7% | 5.8% |
| Reds | Home | 21.7% | 9.8% | RH | 20.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.9% | 13.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.4% | 9.2% | RH | 20.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.6% | 9.6% | RH | 23.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.6% | 9.3% |
| Braves | Road | 19.1% | 7.6% | RH | 19.4% | 7.0% | L7Days | 16.0% | 7.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.8% | 9.0% | LH | 21.1% | 10.0% | L7Days | 22.6% | 9.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.7% | 7.1% | RH | 21.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 21.6% | 5.1% |
| Giants | Home | 19.1% | 7.3% | RH | 19.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 8.5% |
| Twins | Home | 21.3% | 10.2% | RH | 22.0% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.4% |
| Astros | Home | 16.6% | 7.7% | RH | 17.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.2% | 4.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.8% | 7.4% | RH | 23.9% | 7.7% | L7Days | 27.3% | 6.7% |
| Mets | Road | 21.1% | 8.1% | RH | 19.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.0% | 8.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 22.0% | 9.8% | LH | 22.1% | 11.0% | L7Days | 24.0% | 9.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.3% | 8.5% | RH | 20.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.1% | 10.9% | RH | 22.2% | 10.3% | L7Days | 25.7% | 9.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Twins | L2 Years | 34.8% | 12.2% | 17.7% | 2017 | 36.7% | 14.1% | 18.1% | Home | 34.4% | 13.8% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 36.2% | 17.4% | 17.0% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.8% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 2017 | 32.8% | 10.8% | 13.0% | Road | 33.0% | 4.3% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 33.3% | 14.2% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 26.7% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 2017 | 29.3% | 14.7% | 5.6% | Home | 27.6% | 16.5% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 8.3% | -18.4% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 29.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 2017 | 26.6% | 8.5% | 19.3% | Home | 24.8% | 10.7% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 0.0% | 19.4% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.3% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 2017 | 31.0% | 11.3% | 12.5% | Road | 30.8% | 9.7% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.5% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 2017 | 28.3% | 10.5% | 6.9% | Road | 29.8% | 10.5% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 31.9% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 2017 | 33.5% | 15.9% | 13.1% | Road | 34.4% | 16.2% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 10.0% | 15.4% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.6% | 13.8% | 8.8% | 2017 | 31.1% | 14.4% | 11.3% | Home | 25.4% | 14.9% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 31.1% | 26.1% | 0.0% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.6% | 12.5% | 8.7% | 2017 | 27.9% | 13.5% | 8.3% | Road | 30.3% | 14.6% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 15.4% | 14.2% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.4% | 11.3% | 5.6% | 2017 | 33.0% | 14.1% | 11.4% | Home | 29.2% | 10.8% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 12.5% | 8.8% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 32.6% | 10.9% | 14.1% | 2017 | 36.7% | 11.2% | 20.2% | Home | 32.9% | 7.1% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 13.3% | 34.3% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 28.9% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 2017 | 27.7% | 11.1% | 7.8% | Road | 29.4% | 9.8% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.1% | 14.3% | 11.0% | 2017 | 28.3% | 13.2% | 7.4% | Road | 28.3% | 13.9% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 33.3% | 13.4% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.2% | 7.7% | 13.3% | 2017 | 32.4% | 9.0% | 16.4% | Road | 32.1% | 9.4% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.6% | 18.3% | 11.6% | 2017 | 30.0% | 19.5% | 9.1% | Road | 29.7% | 18.2% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 25.0% | -5.9% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2017 | 28.8% | 2.9% | 0.0% | Home | 34.1% | 3.1% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 0.0% | -3.3% |
| Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 38.5% | 18.7% | 23.8% | 2017 | 38.9% | 18.6% | 26.2% | Home | 38.6% | 15.1% | 21.5% | L14 Days | 41.4% | 12.5% | 31.1% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 28.9% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 2017 | 28.9% | 14.1% | 11.8% | Road | 36.5% | 16.7% | 19.0% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 12.5% | 18.8% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.2% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 2017 | 28.4% | 11.6% | 8.4% | Home | 33.8% | 13.7% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 0.0% | -13.5% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 32.3% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 2017 | 34.8% | 13.6% | 13.4% | Home | 37.0% | 12.6% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 0.0% | 5.7% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | Road | 30.9% | 13.5% | 12.6% | RH | 29.9% | 13.3% | 10.6% | L7Days | 27.3% | 9.3% | 6.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.2% | 15.4% | 10.2% | RH | 30.9% | 15.5% | 10.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 20.0% | 2.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 32.2% | 12.3% | 12.2% | LH | 30.5% | 10.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 30.3% | 12.1% | 10.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.6% | 15.9% | 10.7% | RH | 34.9% | 17.6% | 16.7% | L7Days | 29.3% | 12.2% | 12.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 29.4% | 17.7% | 8.3% | LH | 29.1% | 11.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 25.0% | 5.3% | -0.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.4% | 19.2% | 19.0% | LH | 35.1% | 14.7% | 16.9% | L7Days | 37.9% | 17.6% | 19.4% |
| Reds | Home | 28.7% | 15.6% | 7.9% | RH | 29.7% | 14.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 29.5% | 7.4% | 11.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.9% | 14.8% | 12.5% | RH | 31.3% | 14.8% | 11.8% | L7Days | 31.7% | 8.0% | 15.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.0% | 16.9% | 23.5% | RH | 34.9% | 14.9% | 17.6% | L7Days | 36.1% | 22.2% | 19.4% |
| Braves | Road | 31.2% | 12.2% | 12.9% | RH | 30.5% | 11.1% | 12.0% | L7Days | 26.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.7% | 13.7% | 15.5% | LH | 34.4% | 14.1% | 17.5% | L7Days | 32.1% | 14.1% | 17.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 32.0% | 17.7% | 12.5% | RH | 32.7% | 16.2% | 12.9% | L7Days | 38.0% | 21.0% | 20.5% |
| Giants | Home | 25.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | RH | 28.5% | 8.9% | 7.4% | L7Days | 34.5% | 8.7% | 15.6% |
| Twins | Home | 34.1% | 13.0% | 17.6% | RH | 32.9% | 13.7% | 16.7% | L7Days | 29.0% | 14.3% | 14.8% |
| Astros | Home | 30.4% | 14.8% | 12.6% | RH | 32.9% | 15.0% | 15.6% | L7Days | 28.3% | 7.7% | 9.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.8% | 10.3% | 10.3% | RH | 30.4% | 12.3% | 9.8% | L7Days | 29.9% | 11.4% | 8.3% |
| Mets | Road | 35.8% | 15.4% | 18.6% | RH | 34.5% | 13.4% | 16.9% | L7Days | 31.8% | 8.8% | 15.1% |
| Cubs | Home | 32.2% | 17.2% | 14.8% | LH | 29.2% | 17.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 33.2% | 18.3% | 14.2% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.8% | 14.6% | 12.5% | RH | 31.4% | 14.6% | 14.4% | L7Days | 24.6% | 8.6% | 1.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 35.0% | 14.7% | 19.1% | RH | 35.7% | 14.8% | 19.9% | L7Days | 36.8% | 14.0% | 21.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 13.1% | 5.3% | 2.47 | 13.2% | 6.4% | 2.06 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 12.8% | 7.4% | 1.73 | 26.7% | 11.0% | 2.43 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 18.6% | 8.6% | 2.16 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 2.17 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 23.8% | 12.0% | 1.98 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.93 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 25.8% | 11.1% | 2.32 | 24.6% | 9.5% | 2.59 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 22.2% | 8.8% | 2.52 | 18.9% | 6.7% | 2.82 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 28.6% | 13.5% | 2.12 | 28.9% | 12.4% | 2.33 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 14.3% | 8.3% | 1.72 | 16.1% | 7.2% | 2.24 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 24.7% | 12.7% | 1.94 | 30.9% | 13.2% | 2.34 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.44 | 24.0% | 11.7% | 2.05 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.46 | 24.2% | 11.3% | 2.14 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 22.9% | 11.2% | 2.04 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.87 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 22.5% | 9.7% | 2.32 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 2.23 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 14.3% | 6.4% | 2.23 | 18.4% | 4.9% | 3.76 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 13.4% | 6.1% | 2.20 | 16.7% | 5.5% | 3.04 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | 12.2% | 8.4% | 1.45 | 11.6% | 10.8% | 1.07 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 22.1% | 11.8% | 1.87 | 26.3% | 12.5% | 2.10 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 22.6% | 10.6% | 2.13 | 22.6% | 8.0% | 2.83 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 15.7% | 7.1% | 2.21 | 14.4% | 6.8% | 2.12 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 27.6% | 12.8% | 2.16 | 26.6% | 11.2% | 2.38 |
Gio Gonzalez has a SwStr rate below 6% in three of his last four starts, so yeah, additional concerns.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 6.35 | 5.2 | -1.15 | 5.26 | -1.09 | 5.32 | -1.03 | 7.21 | 0.86 | 3.21 | 5.4 | 2.19 | 5.68 | 2.47 | 5.89 | 2.68 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 4.36 | 5.49 | 1.13 | 5.64 | 1.28 | 5.1 | 0.74 | 6.32 | 1.96 | 6.55 | 3.97 | -2.58 | 4.27 | -2.28 | 7.04 | 0.49 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.82 | 4.57 | 0.75 | 4.3 | 0.48 | 4.4 | 0.58 | 4.72 | 0.90 | 4.5 | 4.15 | -0.35 | 3.61 | -0.89 | 5.17 | 0.67 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 3.63 | 4.16 | 0.53 | 4.43 | 0.8 | 3.61 | -0.02 | 4.58 | 0.95 | 3.41 | 4.19 | 0.78 | 4.32 | 0.91 | 3.23 | -0.18 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.19 | 4.04 | -0.15 | 4.25 | 0.06 | 3.86 | -0.33 | 3.27 | -0.92 | 4.25 | 3.95 | -0.3 | 4.16 | -0.09 | 2.79 | -1.46 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 2.4 | 4.42 | 2.02 | 4.28 | 1.88 | 3.86 | 1.46 | 3.57 | 1.17 | 0.79 | 4.42 | 3.63 | 4.36 | 3.57 | 3.01 | 2.22 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.39 | 3.45 | 0.06 | 3.26 | -0.13 | 3.49 | 0.1 | 2.74 | -0.65 | 3.82 | 3.14 | -0.68 | 2.83 | -0.99 | 3.28 | -0.54 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 4.88 | 5.19 | 0.31 | 5.34 | 0.46 | 5.45 | 0.57 | 4.59 | -0.29 | 5.46 | 4.84 | -0.62 | 5.19 | -0.27 | 5.35 | -0.11 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 3.76 | 3.82 | 0.06 | 3.89 | 0.13 | 3.84 | 0.08 | 3.80 | 0.04 | 2.76 | 3.04 | 0.28 | 3.22 | 0.46 | 3.54 | 0.78 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.45 | 4.26 | 0.81 | 4.01 | 0.56 | 4.04 | 0.59 | 3.92 | 0.47 | 2.64 | 4.22 | 1.58 | 4.24 | 1.6 | 3.94 | 1.3 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.85 | 3.79 | 0.94 | 3.89 | 1.04 | 3.5 | 0.65 | 3.01 | 0.16 | 2.73 | 3.67 | 0.94 | 3.73 | 1 | 3.79 | 1.06 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 5.04 | 4.58 | -0.46 | 4.96 | -0.08 | 4.45 | -0.59 | 6.81 | 1.77 | 3.86 | 5.08 | 1.22 | 5.45 | 1.59 | 4.31 | 0.45 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 4.33 | 4.12 | -0.21 | 3.84 | -0.49 | 3.76 | -0.57 | 4.99 | 0.66 | 7.25 | 4.79 | -2.46 | 4.62 | -2.63 | 5.68 | -1.57 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.3 | 5.37 | 1.07 | 5.53 | 1.23 | 4.66 | 0.36 | 5.55 | 1.25 | 3.34 | 4.85 | 1.51 | 5.33 | 1.99 | 3.8 | 0.46 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 5.26 | 5.24 | -0.02 | 5.24 | -0.02 | 6.19 | 0.93 | 6.35 | 1.09 | 8.27 | 5.27 | -3 | 5.47 | -2.8 | 7.72 | -0.55 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | 3.7 | 5.89 | 2.19 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 4.32 | 0.62 | 6.72 | 3.02 | 2.55 | 5.14 | 2.59 | 5.34 | 2.79 | 3.64 | 1.09 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 5.81 | 4.97 | -0.84 | 5.16 | -0.65 | 5.86 | 0.05 | 5.91 | 0.10 | 1.96 | 4.4 | 2.44 | 4.27 | 2.31 | 3.51 | 1.55 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 4.36 | 4.92 | 0.56 | 4.82 | 0.46 | 4.85 | 0.49 | 5.66 | 1.30 | 4.1 | 5.27 | 1.17 | 5.28 | 1.18 | 5.98 | 1.88 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 3.91 | 4.76 | 0.85 | 4.52 | 0.61 | 4.25 | 0.34 | 4.50 | 0.59 | 1.95 | 4.8 | 2.85 | 4.34 | 2.39 | 2.79 | 0.84 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 3.14 | 3.36 | 0.22 | 3.2 | 0.06 | 3.17 | 0.03 | 2.93 | -0.21 | 4.5 | 3.57 | -0.93 | 3.13 | -1.37 | 3.23 | -1.27 |
Gio Gonzalez has a .242 BABIP and 85.8 LOB%.
Kyle Hendricks has an 80.2 LOB%. It’s 89.5% in August.
Madison Bumgarner has a .266 BABIP that’s not much lower than his .284 career rate, but he’s probably pitching in front of the worst defense of his career. His 84.7 LOB% is a career high by a large margin.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 0.298 | 0.334 | 0.036 | 42.3% | 0.191 | 9.6% | 92.7% | 88 | 7.20% | 38.40% | 414 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 0.297 | 0.290 | -0.007 | 39.7% | 0.178 | 12.2% | 89.8% | 85 | 6.20% | 29.90% | 177 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.290 | 0.268 | -0.022 | 49.7% | 0.206 | 6.9% | 87.3% | 84.8 | 4.00% | 30.20% | 351 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.295 | 0.311 | 0.016 | 31.5% | 0.25 | 4.3% | 83.7% | 88.4 | 2.80% | 36.70% | 109 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.305 | 0.289 | -0.016 | 35.1% | 0.214 | 5.6% | 83.1% | 87.1 | 8.70% | 32.80% | 287 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.293 | 0.242 | -0.051 | 45.5% | 0.186 | 9.3% | 86.7% | 84.7 | 4.80% | 27.20% | 463 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.320 | 0.297 | -0.023 | 44.8% | 0.212 | 9.9% | 79.5% | 85.9 | 6.40% | 29.30% | 451 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 0.315 | 0.249 | -0.066 | 34.4% | 0.215 | 11.9% | 86.8% | 86.6 | 6.20% | 32.30% | 470 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.280 | 0.262 | -0.018 | 38.4% | 0.216 | 12.7% | 81.8% | 84.8 | 4.00% | 28.50% | 326 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.283 | 0.285 | 0.002 | 47.3% | 0.212 | 9.8% | 86.7% | 85.3 | 5.10% | 31.60% | 297 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.317 | 0.266 | -0.051 | 42.2% | 0.176 | 9.2% | 88.2% | 87.2 | 7.30% | 33.50% | 248 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.307 | 0.307 | 0 | 30.1% | 0.208 | 14.3% | 81.1% | 86.8 | 7.20% | 31.50% | 447 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.294 | 0.335 | 0.041 | 48.1% | 0.214 | 7.9% | 84.2% | 86.1 | 5.80% | 30.10% | 382 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.288 | 0.293 | 0.005 | 38.1% | 0.2 | 8.4% | 91.0% | 87.4 | 6.50% | 34.50% | 432 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.289 | 0.251 | -0.038 | 39.9% | 0.215 | 10.6% | 90.7% | 86.5 | 8.40% | 31.60% | 297 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | 0.293 | 0.253 | -0.04 | 36.7% | 0.203 | 8.8% | 85.8% | 81.4 | 3.80% | 27.50% | 80 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 0.293 | 0.315 | 0.022 | 39.7% | 0.212 | 5.1% | 86.3% | 88.4 | 10.80% | 38.90% | 157 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 0.292 | 0.303 | 0.011 | 42.4% | 0.229 | 5.6% | 84.6% | 87.7 | 5.20% | 35.10% | 211 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.300 | 0.298 | -0.002 | 48.3% | 0.227 | 9.6% | 89.8% | 85.6 | 4.30% | 30.50% | 511 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.294 | 0.290 | -0.004 | 48.4% | 0.177 | 10.9% | 84.6% | 86.2 | 6.60% | 30.20% | 440 |
Michael Wacha had a .334 BABIP last year too, though his 23.9 LD% was a bit higher. He doesn’t generate a lot of popups, but this is probably a bit of bad luck. There’s nothing in his profile that would suggest a BABIP this high.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Madison Bumgarner (1) is the most recognizable name on the slate, but there are no real top arms. He’s been better as of late, though still not in standard form considering his most recent seasons. He still might be the best we have tonight. Make no mistake, there are no top tier arms tonight, but these three guys are all reasonable second or third tier choices on an ordinary slate.
Eduardo Rodriguez (3t) hasn’t had ideal results since returning from the DL, but everything except the strand rate appears to be more or less in line. He costs less than $8K in a potentially favorable spot in the Bronx against a Yankee lineup that has struggled against LHP despite the tendency to lean RH.
Kyle Hendricks (2) is not a considered a power arm by any means and is not in a high strikeout spot tonight. However, it’s not a bad spot and he’s one of the few pitchers on the board trending up, completing his best month of the season.
Value Tier Two
Michael Wacha has been missing fewer bats and allowing more HRs, a terrible combination. He’s probably not going to boost his strikeout rate in San Francisco, but it’s easily the top run and hard contact prevention spot on the board. The cost is below $7.5K on either site.
Value Tier Three
Gio Gonzalez (3t) is a pitcher that I’ve become accustomed to fading and does not appear here entirely on his own merit. There are concerns about his BABIP, LOB% and recent SwStr%. I’d be quite content to fade him again on a standard slate, but this one has just six games, not a lot of upside and a matchup with the Brewers.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
There is no fourth tier tonight. C.C. Sabathia and Zach Davies come closest. You may get a lot of weak contact in both spots, but not enough strikeouts for strong consideration.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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