Advanced Stats – Pitching: Thursday, July 6th
All 12 games on Thursday will be listed with the night slate being covered in the notes. It’s a very strong board at the top for such a small one, but it’s not incredibly deep and players may be surprised by one or two of tonight’s omissions.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 2.6 | 4.39 | 5.41 | 38.2% | 0.98 | 4.45 | 4.07 | SFO | 86 | 81 | 93 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -6.8 | 4.67 | 4.87 | 42.8% | 0.96 | 4.04 | 4.14 | PHI | 93 | 81 | 67 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.7 | 3.03 | 6.96 | 40.5% | 0.96 | 3.4 | 2.62 | TAM | 116 | 91 | 104 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | -9.1 | 3.22 | 5.29 | 36.6% | 1.09 | 3.74 | 3.41 | CLE | 99 | 103 | 95 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -2.7 | 4.52 | 5.62 | 33.7% | 1.04 | 5.04 | 3.37 | MIN | 102 | 101 | 104 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | -2.3 | 4.32 | 5.39 | 49.1% | 1.03 | 4.08 | 5.67 | HOU | 129 | 119 | 165 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0 | 4.06 | 5.71 | 47.3% | 1.01 | 3.71 | 3.87 | ATL | 90 | 95 | 43 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 0.5 | 3.29 | 6.42 | 40.5% | 0.96 | 4.01 | 3.45 | BOS | 103 | 98 | 150 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 2.4 | 4.55 | 5.67 | 39.7% | 0.96 | 4.31 | 3.71 | PIT | 85 | 89 | 77 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.6 | 3.95 | 6.55 | 45.6% | 0.98 | 3.59 | 6.48 | DET | 115 | 96 | 115 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 3.9 | 4.64 | 5.13 | 40.7% | 1.04 | 4.4 | 3.77 | BAL | 89 | 91 | 52 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | -4.5 | 4.14 | 5.89 | 41.5% | 1.09 | 4.17 | 5.52 | SDG | 73 | 84 | 75 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | -1.9 | 3.43 | 5.72 | 55.8% | 1.03 | 3.12 | 2.43 | TOR | 88 | 88 | 44 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -7.8 | 4.28 | 5.51 | 45.8% | 0.98 | 3.83 | 3.25 | FLA | 98 | 93 | 108 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -0.6 | 4.33 | 5.58 | 39.0% | 1.01 | 4.16 | 4.12 | WAS | 120 | 112 | 96 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 4.3 | 4.05 | 4.95 | 58.6% | 0.96 | 3.62 | 3.53 | MIL | 98 | 94 | 123 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | -14.2 | 4.45 | 6. | 50.0% | 0.89 | 4.45 | SEA | 109 | 105 | 77 | |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 2 | 3.49 | 5.52 | 43.6% | 0.89 | 4.33 | 3.13 | ARI | 81 | 70 | 82 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -7.4 | 3.76 | 5.61 | 44.5% | 0.89 | 3.39 | 5.17 | LOS | 123 | 117 | 145 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 10.3 | 8.58 | 3. | 20.0% | 1.39 | COL | 81 | 77 | 65 | ||
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 7.9 | 4.88 | 5.47 | 52.2% | 0.89 | 4.68 | 5.43 | OAK | 86 | 103 | 62 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.6 | 4.92 | 5.38 | 42.8% | 0.98 | 4.9 | 5.95 | STL | 99 | 97 | 99 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 1.1 | 4.7 | 5.86 | 57.0% | 1.39 | 4.35 | 6.83 | CIN | 95 | 100 | 88 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -3.4 | 4.35 | 5.65 | 48.3% | 0.96 | 4.54 | 4.95 | CHC | 100 | 88 | 90 |
Chris Sale has at least nine strikeouts in 14 of 17 starts and has gone fewer than seven innings just four times. His 30.8 K-BB% is best in baseball. The Rays have struggled with LHP and strike out 26.5% of the time against them.
Dinelson Lamet trails only Sale in strikeout (32.1%) and swinging strike rate (13.9%) on today’s board. A velocity increase plus a walk rate decrease will do wonders for a pitcher, who was considered a potential bullpen arm in pre-season prospect reports. He’s struck out at least eight in four of seven starts and went seven innings for the first time last time out. He has had a significant issue with contact (88.8 mph aEV, 15% Barrels/BBE, 36.6 GB%), which is a bit of a concern in Cleveland, which is not an ideal matchup for him.
Jacob Faria has a 23.6 K-BB% through five major league starts. This is a guy who has not walked fewer than 9% since A-ball. He’s walked just five batters so far. He’s trusting his stuff, throwing it for strikes and has been excelling with average contact management due to the elite peripherals. The Boston offense has been lacking power since Ortiz retired, but they have been hot and also lack strikeouts.
Jose Berrios has been a very good pitcher, but he hasn’t been great. In fact, he’s allowed nine ERs (three HRs) over his last two starts. His 17.4 K-BB% is very good and his 85.8 mph aEV, 28.2% 95+ mph EV are both better than average, though normally, anything above $9K doesn’t seem like much of a bargain, even against Baltimore (16.4 K-BB% vs RHP). However, it’s important to note his .246 wOBA allowed to RHBs this season with a 23.5 K-BB% and -1.2 Hard-Soft% in this spot that might be a difference maker against such a predominantly right-handed offense.
Lance McCullers has a 22.0 K-BB% (seventh) and 63.9 GB% (first). He’s the only qualified pitcher who can claim elite marks in both categories. Then there’s contact authority: 85.3 mph aEV, 4.1% Barrels/BBE, 27.6% 95+ mph EV. Much as I believe a similar pitcher in Alex Wood has been the second best pitcher in the National League, I believe he’s the 1A or 1AL to Sale’s Cy Young performance for the first half of this season. McCullers has been far the better contact manager too. While he can’t match the matchup for strikeout potential, he may have the better overall matchup with the Blue Jays being ice cold (17.6 K-BB%, 4.4 HR/FB, 3.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week).
Rich Hill has struck out 26 of his last 76 batters, going seven innings in each of his last two starts. It appears as if his curveball is back, while he also may have introduced a cutter in these outings. Whatever he’s done, it’s working. He’s managed contact well all season (83.1 mph aEV, 24.1% 95+ mph EV, -1.4 Hard-Soft%). The Dodgers are ready to throw their third straight great lefty at Arizona (25.3 K% vs LHP). Perhaps having all these guys in your division is why the Diamondbacks have a 70 wRC+ against lefties in the first place.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Gio Gonzalez (.255 – 85.4% – 12.7) has struck out 25 of his last 81 batters and has gone at least seven in three of his last four. I believe this is the same pitcher who seemed to be out of the game after five whenever I’ve used him in previous seasons. He’s pitched into the sixth inning in all but one start this year. That said, his 10.4 SwStr% over the last month does not entirely support the entire strikeout spike and I’m not paying $11.3K for him in any spot. Hosting the Braves is favorable, even if the strikeout rate is not ideal. $9.1K on FanDuel is incredibly close, though there are still several other pitchers I’d prefer first.
Robbie Ray (.267 – 84% – 13.5) has walked at least four in four straight (17 of 110). The strikeouts are still there, but it makes it tough to get deep into games and it could be much worse if the strand rate falters. Add that to a very difficult matchup in Los Angeles, where the Dodgers have been mashing lefties this year.
Mike Foltynewicz (.290 – 78.9% – 14.3) missed a no-hitter by a single inning last night, striking out eight, but also walking four. We were not on him, nor will we be today. Well, I won’t anyway. It merely moves him from one list to another with the high strand rate. He’s also allowed four unearned runs (9.8% of his total). His 12.2 K-BB% and contact management suggest a league average pitcher. That’s fine at an average cost today, but against a difficult offense in Washington.
Dylan Bundy (.269 – 79.6% – 12.8) has been missing bats just fine and his 20 IFFBs so far is a major BABIP suppressor, but the Baltimore defense has allowed one of the highest BABIPs in baseball and pitchers with average strikeout rates don’t generally strand 80% of runners. Peripherals are just average and his contact authority hasn’t been ideal (88 mph aEV, 35.9 Hard%, 31.3 GB%). The Twins haven’t been a favorable opponent at home.
Sam Gaviglio (.235 – 79.8% – 22.4) has just a 7.2 K-BB% with a 52.2 GB%, but average contact management.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Paul Blackburn had a 12.5 K-BB% in his first major league start. That’s a bit higher than he’s had at any level of the minors.
Fancisco Liriano has struck out just nine of his last 72 batters and may have the worst matchup on the night slate in Houston.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.0% | 8.0% | Home | 23.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 2.2% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 18.2% | 7.8% | Road | 21.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 4.6% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.2% | 4.8% | Road | 28.3% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 5.8% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 32.1% | 7.1% | Road | 37.1% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 4.1% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.6% | 8.4% | Road | 21.0% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 8.7% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 23.0% | 11.2% | Home | 24.1% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 7.8% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.1% | 9.0% | Home | 25.5% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 13.7% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 27.6% | 3.9% | Home | 24.0% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 2.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 17.4% | 6.3% | Home | 19.2% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 4.4% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 20.7% | 5.8% | Road | 23.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 13.2% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 20.9% | 9.9% | Home | 22.6% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 6.1% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 17.7% | 2.9% | Home | 16.2% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 9.8% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.7% | 9.4% | Road | 27.0% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 4.7% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.4% | 8.4% | Home | 21.1% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 25.4% | 4.5% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 20.3% | 7.2% | Road | 21.1% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 13.5% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 19.8% | 10.3% | Home | 22.0% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 7.4% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Years | 16.7% | 4.2% | Road | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.2% | ||
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.1% | 8.6% | Home | 25.5% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 7.9% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 27.5% | 10.0% | Road | 30.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 24.6% | 15.8% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 11.1% | 22.2% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 14.9% | 7.7% | Home | 15.6% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 8.2% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 18.2% | 10.9% | Road | 18.1% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.4% | 11.3% | Home | 17.0% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 21.6% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 17.9% | 6.8% | Road | 14.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 6.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Road | 18.9% | 8.2% | RH | 19.3% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.2% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.7% | 8.6% | RH | 23.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 26.6% | 6.5% |
| Rays | Home | 24.5% | 9.8% | LH | 26.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.7% |
| Indians | Home | 19.0% | 9.6% | RH | 19.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.5% |
| Twins | Home | 21.4% | 10.6% | RH | 22.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.8% | 9.7% |
| Astros | Road | 17.9% | 9.0% | LH | 17.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 15.2% | 7.1% |
| Braves | Road | 19.6% | 7.3% | LH | 18.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.4% | 6.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.9% | 9.0% | RH | 18.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 16.3% | 12.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.7% | 8.5% | RH | 18.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.8% | 8.8% | RH | 22.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.7% | 6.4% | RH | 22.9% | 6.5% | L7Days | 22.4% | 4.3% |
| Padres | Road | 26.8% | 7.5% | RH | 25.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 30.5% | 8.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.6% | 8.1% | RH | 20.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 24.8% | 7.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.8% | 6.2% | RH | 20.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.1% | 9.5% | RH | 19.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 19.8% | 13.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.7% | 8.7% | LH | 26.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.0% | 9.5% | RH | 21.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.8% | 6.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.1% | 8.1% | LH | 25.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 27.1% | 7.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.4% | 10.7% | LH | 21.2% | 10.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 9.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.7% | 7.1% | RH | 22.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 25.7% | 4.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 26.2% | 8.6% | RH | 25.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 30.5% | 13.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.5% | 9.8% | RH | 21.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.3% | 11.2% |
| Reds | Road | 19.6% | 7.4% | RH | 20.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 10.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.4% | 10.3% | RH | 22.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.1% | 16.5% | 14.4% | 2017 | 37.9% | 17.9% | 21.0% | Home | 35.1% | 14.0% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.2% | 9.7% | 15.8% | 2017 | 33.3% | 10.5% | 18.1% | Road | 32.1% | 6.7% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 16.7% | 33.4% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.0% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 2017 | 28.6% | 8.0% | 12.3% | Road | 29.5% | 5.3% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 6.7% | -3.7% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 39.8% | 17.0% | 24.7% | 2017 | 39.8% | 17.0% | 24.7% | Road | 38.7% | 23.5% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 0.0% | 29.4% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.8% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 2017 | 35.9% | 12.8% | 15.8% | Road | 33.8% | 13.7% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 55.6% | 38.5% | 40.8% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 32.0% | 15.0% | 13.4% | 2017 | 32.8% | 11.8% | 19.6% | Home | 34.0% | 10.0% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.2% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 2017 | 33.0% | 12.7% | 11.5% | Home | 33.1% | 13.3% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 10.0% | 27.0% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 32.9% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 2017 | 32.9% | 9.4% | 10.5% | Home | 39.4% | 18.2% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 17.6% | 2.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.4% | 13.3% | 9.0% | 2017 | 29.0% | 13.1% | 9.9% | Home | 23.5% | 13.0% | 1.0% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 13.3% | 18.7% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 29.7% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 2017 | 35.4% | 16.8% | 19.2% | Road | 31.5% | 17.2% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 41.0% | 6.3% | 15.4% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 29.8% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 2017 | 25.9% | 11.3% | 7.5% | Home | 29.4% | 9.1% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 22.2% | 14.0% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | L2 Years | 35.0% | 16.8% | 19.8% | 2017 | 38.3% | 16.2% | 24.5% | Home | 33.6% | 19.0% | 20.6% | L14 Days | 51.4% | 18.8% | 35.2% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.0% | 13.0% | 6.0% | 2017 | 24.9% | 14.0% | 1.8% | Road | 32.2% | 5.7% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 0.0% | -7.4% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.4% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 2017 | 29.2% | 11.3% | 9.9% | Home | 31.0% | 10.1% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 40.4% | 0.0% | 25.5% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 30.0% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 2017 | 28.2% | 14.3% | 13.5% | Road | 28.1% | 17.3% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 11.8% | 11.1% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.1% | 16.4% | 9.9% | 2017 | 29.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | Home | 26.9% | 12.2% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 14.3% | -5.6% |
| Paul Blackburn | Athletics | L2 Years | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.9% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 2017 | 26.3% | 9.2% | -1.4% | Home | 30.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 4.2% | -9.3% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 36.9% | 13.8% | 20.2% | 2017 | 42.3% | 13.5% | 23.1% | Road | 35.9% | 12.8% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 48.5% | 18.8% | 27.3% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 36.4% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 2017 | 36.4% | 28.6% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||||
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.9% | 2017 | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.9% | Home | 40.0% | 13.6% | 22.5% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 14.3% | 7.7% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.4% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 2017 | 37.7% | 22.9% | 26.9% | Road | 28.2% | 13.3% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 50.0% | 30.0% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.8% | 15.8% | 8.5% | 2017 | 27.7% | 22.6% | 5.0% | Home | 32.8% | 22.4% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 12.5% | 22.6% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.5% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 2017 | 30.4% | 16.3% | 9.0% | Road | 29.8% | 12.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 0.0% | -2.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Road | 30.5% | 11.4% | 9.6% | RH | 28.5% | 9.3% | 6.4% | L7Days | 30.8% | 11.8% | 10.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.8% | 13.5% | 10.5% | RH | 30.3% | 10.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 35.5% | 9.4% | 14.0% |
| Rays | Home | 38.2% | 16.5% | 20.5% | LH | 34.6% | 12.5% | 13.5% | L7Days | 30.5% | 19.0% | 10.6% |
| Indians | Home | 30.4% | 11.8% | 12.9% | RH | 33.6% | 11.9% | 17.0% | L7Days | 33.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% |
| Twins | Home | 34.2% | 12.4% | 17.9% | RH | 33.1% | 13.7% | 16.6% | L7Days | 26.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% |
| Astros | Road | 33.6% | 15.3% | 15.6% | LH | 28.6% | 15.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 39.1% | 16.7% | 17.9% |
| Braves | Road | 31.6% | 11.8% | 13.3% | LH | 28.1% | 13.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 29.7% | 4.8% | 9.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.1% | 11.8% | 13.5% | RH | 35.5% | 11.0% | 17.8% | L7Days | 32.2% | 11.1% | 13.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.5% | 12.1% | 9.3% | RH | 30.4% | 10.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 35.5% | 10.3% | 12.9% |
| Tigers | Home | 47.5% | 14.1% | 34.0% | RH | 42.1% | 12.3% | 26.8% | L7Days | 38.4% | 15.1% | 24.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.5% | 13.1% | 15.3% | RH | 30.9% | 15.1% | 10.1% | L7Days | 32.0% | 10.5% | 12.4% |
| Padres | Road | 29.8% | 14.9% | 7.4% | RH | 28.5% | 14.4% | 5.9% | L7Days | 30.2% | 9.5% | 11.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.9% | 13.6% | 10.0% | RH | 31.3% | 14.3% | 11.1% | L7Days | 30.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.5% | 13.7% | 9.2% | RH | 31.0% | 14.1% | 11.1% | L7Days | 28.1% | 12.2% | 10.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.4% | 14.9% | 15.1% | RH | 31.7% | 14.5% | 14.7% | L7Days | 32.7% | 9.8% | 13.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.7% | 18.8% | 11.7% | LH | 36.0% | 16.6% | 15.2% | L7Days | 41.9% | 28.1% | 27.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.0% | 12.3% | 9.5% | RH | 30.9% | 12.4% | 13.0% | L7Days | 27.5% | 10.9% | 9.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.6% | 13.3% | 11.2% | LH | 32.3% | 13.0% | 16.4% | L7Days | 42.0% | 11.3% | 23.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.1% | 17.9% | 21.0% | LH | 34.5% | 17.5% | 18.4% | L7Days | 34.5% | 23.4% | 15.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 30.5% | 15.1% | 10.6% | RH | 29.1% | 12.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 32.8% | 11.6% | 14.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 36.2% | 12.6% | 17.4% | RH | 34.3% | 15.1% | 17.6% | L7Days | 25.4% | 10.8% | 7.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.5% | 11.4% | 13.1% | RH | 32.2% | 13.6% | 13.2% | L7Days | 45.6% | 12.5% | 30.6% |
| Reds | Road | 29.6% | 13.9% | 10.2% | RH | 29.4% | 14.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 25.0% | 16.7% | 2.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 30.3% | 16.3% | 13.0% | RH | 29.6% | 13.6% | 11.4% | L7Days | 25.6% | 17.1% | 8.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.26 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.71 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 18.7% | 11.2% | 1.67 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 1.92 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 35.5% | 16.0% | 2.22 | 33.3% | 16.3% | 2.04 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 32.1% | 13.9% | 2.31 | 29.8% | 13.4% | 2.22 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 19.0% | 10.3% | 1.84 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 2.03 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 20.5% | 10.5% | 1.95 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 1.82 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 23.5% | 9.5% | 2.47 | 29.0% | 10.4% | 2.79 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 27.6% | 12.3% | 2.24 | 27.6% | 12.3% | 2.24 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 12.1% | 8.1% | 1.49 | 16.5% | 10.9% | 1.51 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 21.2% | 10.9% | 1.94 | 14.1% | 7.2% | 1.96 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 24.6% | 10.7% | 2.30 | 24.8% | 11.0% | 2.25 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 17.0% | 7.6% | 2.24 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 2.24 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 29.1% | 12.9% | 2.26 | 32.8% | 15.9% | 2.06 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.34 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.26 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 20.2% | 8.4% | 2.40 | 19.8% | 7.8% | 2.54 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 19.6% | 8.7% | 2.25 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 2.65 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.01 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.01 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 26.3% | 10.1% | 2.60 | 29.4% | 11.0% | 2.67 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 31.0% | 13.3% | 2.33 | 32.6% | 13.5% | 2.41 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 11.1% | 1.2% | 9.25 | |||
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 14.9% | 6.0% | 2.48 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 2.47 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 17.7% | 7.6% | 2.33 | 14.3% | 10.2% | 1.40 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 19.8% | 9.9% | 2.00 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.04 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 14.9% | 7.0% | 2.13 | 11.4% | 5.5% | 2.07 |
The only real outliers are either small sample and/or on the day slate.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 6.34 | 4.37 | -1.97 | 5.05 | -1.29 | 5.84 | -0.5 | 6.97 | 0.63 | 3.12 | 4.37 | 1.25 | 4.73 | 1.61 | 3.33 | 0.21 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 5.26 | 4.82 | -0.44 | 4.81 | -0.45 | 4.33 | -0.93 | 4.40 | -0.86 | 3.81 | 4.47 | 0.66 | 4.19 | 0.38 | 4.61 | 0.8 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.61 | 2.6 | -0.01 | 2.7 | 0.09 | 2.02 | -0.59 | 1.86 | -0.75 | 1.96 | 2.75 | 0.79 | 3.06 | 1.1 | 2.23 | 0.27 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 5.35 | 3.22 | -2.13 | 3.77 | -1.58 | 4.32 | -1.03 | 3.71 | -1.64 | 6.33 | 3.43 | -2.9 | 3.94 | -2.39 | 4.52 | -1.81 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 4.02 | 4.87 | 0.85 | 5.11 | 1.09 | 4.95 | 0.93 | 5.42 | 1.40 | 7.18 | 4.72 | -2.46 | 5.47 | -1.71 | 7.14 | -0.04 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 5.66 | 5.02 | -0.64 | 4.98 | -0.68 | 4.7 | -0.96 | 5.37 | -0.29 | 5.34 | 4.72 | -0.62 | 4.79 | -0.55 | 4.3 | -1.04 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 2.77 | 4.47 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 1.53 | 4.19 | 1.42 | 3.48 | 0.71 | 2.31 | 3.55 | 1.24 | 3.48 | 1.17 | 2.97 | 0.66 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 2.23 | 3.29 | 1.06 | 3.4 | 1.17 | 2.84 | 0.61 | 3.75 | 1.52 | 2.23 | 3.29 | 1.06 | 3.4 | 1.17 | 2.84 | 0.61 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4.48 | 5.55 | 1.07 | 5.69 | 1.21 | 5.59 | 1.11 | 5.93 | 1.45 | 4.45 | 4.84 | 0.39 | 4.99 | 0.54 | 4.9 | 0.45 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 4.26 | 4.3 | 0.04 | 4.13 | -0.13 | 4.54 | 0.28 | 4.86 | 0.60 | 3.94 | 5.61 | 1.67 | 5.53 | 1.59 | 6.12 | 2.18 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 3.44 | 3.95 | 0.51 | 4.25 | 0.81 | 3.9 | 0.46 | 3.20 | -0.24 | 4.13 | 3.85 | -0.28 | 3.9 | -0.23 | 3.98 | -0.15 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 6.17 | 4.38 | -1.79 | 4.33 | -1.84 | 4.72 | -1.45 | 7.64 | 1.47 | 7.94 | 4.72 | -3.22 | 5.09 | -2.85 | 7.17 | -0.77 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 2.69 | 2.98 | 0.29 | 2.7 | 0.01 | 2.72 | 0.03 | 2.19 | -0.50 | 2.6 | 2.43 | -0.17 | 2.33 | -0.27 | 1.31 | -1.29 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 4.16 | 4.21 | 0.05 | 3.93 | -0.23 | 3.65 | -0.51 | 4.67 | 0.51 | 3.12 | 4.01 | 0.89 | 3.6 | 0.48 | 2.73 | -0.39 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 3.83 | 4.56 | 0.73 | 4.58 | 0.75 | 4.67 | 0.84 | 5.70 | 1.87 | 3.68 | 5.1 | 1.42 | 5.43 | 1.75 | 5.1 | 1.42 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 2.8 | 4.32 | 1.52 | 4.13 | 1.33 | 3.68 | 0.88 | 4.52 | 1.72 | 3.19 | 3.63 | 0.44 | 3.55 | 0.36 | 3.19 | 0 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 0 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.82 | 2.82 | 5.62 | 5.62 | 0 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.82 | 2.82 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 4 | 4.49 | 0.49 | 4.93 | 0.93 | 4.23 | 0.23 | 5.53 | 1.53 | 3.86 | 3.71 | -0.15 | 4.25 | 0.39 | 3.08 | -0.78 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.06 | 3.82 | 0.76 | 3.83 | 0.77 | 3.81 | 0.75 | 3.27 | 0.21 | 3.19 | 4.01 | 0.82 | 4.2 | 1.01 | 4.77 | 1.58 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 6 | 8.58 | 2.58 | 10.97 | 4.97 | 15.49 | 9.49 | 8.10 | 2.10 | |||||||
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 3.48 | 4.88 | 1.4 | 4.63 | 1.15 | 5.71 | 2.23 | 5.55 | 2.07 | 3.77 | 5.04 | 1.27 | 4.73 | 0.96 | 5.84 | 2.07 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 8.33 | 5.31 | -3.02 | 5.44 | -2.89 | 6.88 | -1.45 | 7.48 | -0.85 | 37.8 | 5.95 | -31.85 | 6.49 | -31.31 | 12.15 | -25.65 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 4.41 | 4.83 | 0.42 | 4.25 | -0.16 | 4.96 | 0.55 | 3.70 | -0.71 | 3.9 | 5.37 | 1.47 | 4.84 | 0.94 | 5.43 | 1.53 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 5.03 | 4.85 | -0.18 | 4.66 | -0.37 | 4.98 | -0.05 | 5.66 | 0.63 | 5.79 | 4.57 | -1.22 | 4.34 | -1.45 | 4.87 | -0.92 |
Dinelson Lamet has a .259 BABIP, but only a 56.6 LOB%. You would think the BABIP might be higher with the abundance of hard contact he’s allowed, yet he’s somehow turned in a 12.9 LD%. Expect both to regress, but the strand rate potentially more.
Jacob Faria has a .256 BABIP, but has induced quite a few popups. The 82.4 LOB% is sure to regress though, while the 9.4 HR/FB is likely to increase as well.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.307 | 0.307 | 0 | 34.2% | 0.192 | 7.1% | 86.0% | 86.5 | 9.70% | 6.90% | 124 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.304 | 0.325 | 0.021 | 41.3% | 0.213 | 7.0% | 85.5% | 87.1 | 4.60% | 3.30% | 237 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.307 | 0.288 | -0.019 | 36.6% | 0.223 | 11.6% | 77.6% | 86.8 | 5.80% | 3.40% | 276 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 0.300 | 0.259 | -0.041 | 36.6% | 0.129 | 4.3% | 81.9% | 88.8 | 15.10% | 9.00% | 93 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.313 | 0.269 | -0.044 | 31.3% | 0.217 | 14.2% | 85.7% | 88 | 8.90% | 6.40% | 304 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 0.305 | 0.320 | 0.015 | 42.9% | 0.201 | 8.8% | 87.7% | 87.2 | 7.40% | 4.90% | 189 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.294 | 0.255 | -0.039 | 43.4% | 0.201 | 11.8% | 86.8% | 86.1 | 5.90% | 3.80% | 288 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 0.292 | 0.256 | -0.036 | 40.5% | 0.214 | 18.8% | 87.6% | 86.2 | 7.10% | 4.70% | 85 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.299 | 0.252 | -0.047 | 36.3% | 0.201 | 12.4% | 86.8% | 86.4 | 6.80% | 5.40% | 324 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.317 | 0.299 | -0.018 | 40.3% | 0.257 | 9.3% | 85.4% | 87.6 | 8.10% | 5.70% | 322 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.294 | 0.259 | -0.035 | 43.6% | 0.151 | 8.5% | 83.9% | 85.8 | 6.30% | 4.20% | 174 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.303 | 0.356 | 0.053 | 39.6% | 0.246 | 4.8% | 91.2% | 88.4 | 7.40% | 5.90% | 298 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.295 | 0.288 | -0.007 | 63.9% | 0.162 | 2.3% | 89.3% | 85.3 | 4.10% | 2.50% | 221 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.295 | 0.342 | 0.047 | 46.9% | 0.219 | 4.2% | 83.5% | 85.5 | 5.60% | 3.80% | 233 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.287 | 0.290 | 0.003 | 38.4% | 0.236 | 7.1% | 86.2% | 86.8 | 6.80% | 4.80% | 266 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 0.287 | 0.277 | -0.01 | 60.8% | 0.176 | 0.0% | 89.0% | 84.2 | 3.30% | 2.30% | 180 |
| Paul Blackburn | OAK | 0.297 | 0.167 | -0.13 | 50.0% | 0.111 | 0.0% | 82.8% | ||||
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.280 | 0.290 | 0.01 | 37.9% | 0.129 | 15.4% | 81.6% | 83.1 | 5.80% | 3.40% | 137 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.290 | 0.267 | -0.023 | 38.6% | 0.193 | 11.5% | 80.8% | 88.4 | 6.80% | 3.90% | 234 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 0.291 | 0.111 | -0.18 | 20.0% | 0.1 | 14.3% | 100.0% | ||||
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 0.279 | 0.235 | -0.044 | 52.2% | 0.166 | 8.2% | 92.8% | 86.4 | 6.90% | 5.30% | 160 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.291 | 0.328 | 0.037 | 37.3% | 0.246 | 4.2% | 88.5% | 88.6 | 7.70% | 5.30% | 130 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.294 | 0.265 | -0.029 | 56.7% | 0.207 | 3.2% | 88.1% | 85 | 5.00% | 3.30% | 282 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.300 | 0.315 | 0.015 | 50.0% | 0.217 | 9.3% | 89.9% | 86 | 6.50% | 5.00% | 309 |
Jose Berrios has a solid profile, though I’d be cautious about sustaining a 15.9 LD%.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Lance McCullers (2) costs more than $2K less than Sale on either site, while his elite contact management and batted profile along with the great peripherals nearly put the two pitchers on par. The matchup may not be as strong strikeout wise, but he’s catching an under-performing offense at the right time.
Value Tier Two
Chris Sale (1) is in a high strikeout spot. Truthfully, they’re all high strikeout spots when he’s pitching, but 13 sounds about right here or one for each $1K in his DraftKings price.
Value Tier Three
Dinelson Lamet (3t) has some issues with contact and had minor league issues with control that are a concern in Cleveland, but you still need to strongly consider a pitcher with a 30% strikeout rate for around $8K in any park.
Jacob Faria (3t) comes in around $1K more than the guy above on DraftKings, but the same price on FanDuel and they’ve been comparable this year in that both shot up their K% and improved their walk rate. While neither has excelled at contact management, Faria has been better, which he may need against a more contact prone offense tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Rich Hill (3t) has been pitching like the guy who got paid over his last few starts. He’s also got the top matchup on the board against Arizona. Go ahead and bump him up a tier on FanDuel for $1.5K less. The one remaining issue is that even though he lasted seven innings in two straight starts, he threw between 90 and 99 pitches. As we saw last night, the Dodgers will either let a guy throw around 95 pitches or seven innings, whichever comes first.
Jose Berrios was originally an omission for more than $9K until I looked at his numbers against RHBs. While he’s been a good pitcher overall, he’s been dominant against them.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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