Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, June 8th
Hopefully you were able to access your lineups and swap out Dallas Keuchel when he was scratched at the last minute last night. I had momentarily forgotten that FanDuel had made this possible this year and would have had an early night without the ability to switch to Zack Greinke and watch myself bubble. Perhaps I should have left a few grand on the table and went with Buck Farmer instead.
Unfortunately, it’s almost all top priced guys again tonight.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | -3.5 | 4.87 | 4.82 | 35.1% | 1.01 | 5.44 | 4.43 | WAS | 122 | 112 | 105 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 4 | 7.47 | 7. | 50.0% | 1 | 7.47 | ATL | 100 | 94 | 117 | |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 6.7 | 4.61 | 5.11 | 38.2% | 0.89 | 4.53 | 4.96 | MIN | 101 | 107 | 99 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -7.9 | 3.97 | 6.01 | 60.9% | 1.13 | 4.34 | 3.65 | ARI | 118 | 72 | 65 |
| David Price | BOS | 5.1 | 3.36 | 6.65 | 43.6% | 1.01 | 3.88 | 3.8 | NYY | 122 | 101 | 117 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.4 | 4.82 | 5.65 | 38.6% | 0.96 | 5.38 | 4.93 | TAM | 106 | 83 | 52 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 4.7 | 4.61 | 5.72 | 49.0% | 0.97 | 4.81 | 3.91 | PIT | 90 | 92 | 131 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -7.4 | 3.88 | 6. | 45.5% | 0.97 | 4.06 | 4.56 | MIA | 95 | 92 | 81 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.8 | 4.19 | 5.61 | 35.5% | 0.96 | 4.27 | 6.57 | CHW | 88 | 80 | 86 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 8 | 4.25 | 5.25 | 39.2% | 1.06 | 4.34 | 4.4 | HOU | 128 | 124 | 135 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | -5.6 | 4.16 | 6.02 | 48.8% | 0.98 | 3.97 | 4.63 | DET | 125 | 101 | 174 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | -1.9 | 3.95 | 5.52 | 43.7% | 1.01 | 3.73 | 4.48 | BAL | 98 | 95 | 112 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | -0.2 | 3.75 | 6.61 | 45.9% | 1.02 | 3.35 | 2.27 | MIL | 97 | 97 | 82 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 2.3 | 3.47 | 6.32 | 48.4% | 0.96 | 3.39 | 5.52 | COL | 92 | 90 | 120 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 9.1 | 4.48 | 5.73 | 50.8% | 0.89 | 4.92 | 4.66 | SEA | 118 | 112 | 152 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 1.6 | 3.51 | 5.73 | 53.8% | 1.06 | 3.33 | 2.49 | KAN | 84 | 83 | 112 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.6 | 4.02 | 6.32 | 49.0% | 0.98 | 4.11 | 4.29 | ANA | 76 | 90 | 98 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 1.3 | 3.42 | 5.6 | 46.4% | 1.01 | 3.23 | 5.81 | BOS | 104 | 95 | 63 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -11.6 | 3.94 | 6.2 | 53.0% | 1.02 | 3.89 | 3.55 | CIN | 108 | 105 | 122 |
| Paolo Espino | MIL | -4 | 4.07 | 4. | 38.5% | 1.02 | SFO | 77 | 77 | 106 | ||
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -4.9 | 4.12 | 5.45 | 50.9% | 1.13 | 4.27 | 4.9 | SDG | 78 | 61 | 78 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 2.6 | 4.95 | 6.11 | 43.4% | 1 | 5.01 | 7.47 | PHI | 77 | 89 | 112 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 13.6 | 4.43 | 5.53 | 47.2% | 1.02 | 4.34 | 4.89 | STL | 89 | 95 | 75 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.7 | 4.57 | 5.9 | 57.2% | 0.96 | 4.16 | 3.72 | CHC | 105 | 88 | 110 |
David Price has struck out 11 of 45 batters in two starts in Chicago (AL) and Baltimore, while allowing two HRs, but a -17.3 Hard-Soft%. His velocity and skills seem to be in tact with career rates as he worked his way above 90 pitches in his last start. He has another tough one in New York against a Yankees offense with a 19.4 HR/FB at home and a double digit walk rate, but they are just league average against LHP (23.8 K%).
Jon Lester has allowed nine runs over his last 9.1 innings with three HRs, five walks and just seven strikeouts (43 BF). Contact has been a bit harder, but still just around league average, while his ground ball rate has plummeted to 31% against teams who have struggled against LHP the last few years (Cardinals and Dodgers). His SwStr has been below 8% in each start as well with his velocity down a bit further. There’s concern, but he still has allowed the lowest rate of Barrels on the board (2.7% PA) and has a nice matchup against the Rockies (15.9 K-BB% on the road), another lineup that struggles against LHP (17.0 K-BB%).
Lance McCullers has a 20.9 K-BB%, 61.7 GB% and 2.2 Hard-Soft%. He did not make it out of the fifth inning in his last start, but eight of the 22 Rangers he faced struck out, while another nine put it on the ground with a 0.0 Hard-Soft%. The Royals have just a 9.0 HR/FB at home and have just an 87 sOPS+ vs ground ball pitchers (Baseball-Reference).
Michael Pineda has a 19.5 K-BB%, 50.3 GB% and 26.8 Hard%. He also struggled in his last start, but his misfortune may have been more earned with just one strikeout against three walks. Ten of 22 batted balls remained on the ground with a -4.3 Hard-Soft%, but his 6.9 SwStr% was his lowest mark of the season by two entire points against Toronto. The Boston offense has been sup-par and ice cold over the last week (-1.3 Hard-Soft%), but still tend to limit opposing pitcher daily fantasy points by virtue of a low strikeout rate.
Tyler Chatwood generated ground balls and has a -0.6 Hard-Soft% on the road since last season. His 11.1 K-BB% is doubled on the road this season as well, though he still has a double digit walk rate. His road starts this year have been in San Diego (twice), Philadelphia, Minnesota (five walks), San Francisco, and Milwaukee (two HRs). Not exactly a murderers row and with some difficulty in the two spots you might expect. The Cubs have a 16.3 HR/FB at home, but have struggled against RHP this year.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Jake Odorizzi (.225 – 76.2% – 18.0) has a league average 12.4 K-BB%, but a concerning 22.8 Hard-Soft%, though is Statcast rates are not so damning. He’s allowed a HR in every start he’s lasted more than an inning in and hasn’t struck out more batters than he’s walked in two outings. It would seem one of the best spots on the board at home against the predominantly right-handed White Sox, but remember that he has a pronounced reverse split.
Derek Holland (.273 – 73.4% – 13.8) has allowed 35 runs, only 24 of which were earned. His estimators are all around five with a 39.2% hard hit rate with a similar rate of batted balls above 95 mph according to Statcast.
Christian Bergman (.283 – 83.3% – 15.6)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Joe Ross has allowed at least five runs in fewer than five innings in four of his six starts. His 15.6 K-BB% is right in line with his career rate, but contact has been a disaster (37.6 GB%, 39.4 Hard%, 22.5 HR/FB, 9.6% Barrels/BBE). He’s been nearly equally as bad against right and left-handed batters this year. While he’s still throwing sinkers and sliders more than 90% of the time, the sinker is slower, while the slider is harder. He’s throwing more first pitch strikes, but getting fewer chases out of the zone. The harder slider appears to be getting much less vertical movement. Maybe it looks too much like his sinker because that’s the pitch really being punished (.387 ISO). Just throw the slider 90% of the time? Baltimore leans heavily right-handed which would be a positive if he were at least still getting them out. He might become interesting for $7K if Machado is out tonight.
Gerrit Cole has allowed eight HRs over his last three starts (14.2 IP – 16 ER – 4 BB – 11 K – 75 BF. He has just a 33.1 GB% and 44.1 Hard% over that span. His pitch mix has remained relatively stable as has his velocity, but every single plate discipline metric has declined. Against a Miami offense with most of their power coming from the right-hand side, he could fare better in this spot at home, but with fewer swings and misses and much harder contact, something certainly appears off here after showing so much promise for about a month long period starting in mid-April.
Edinson Volquez threw the game of his life last time out with a season high 10 strikeouts and just two walks. Doing that on just 98 pitches may make the no-hitter hangover a bit less likely as well. While it was the first time he’d struck out more than five in a month, his walk rate has been just about league average over that span as well (8.8%) with a 53.6 GB% and 6.9 Hard-Soft%. A .235 BABIP and 8.3 HR/FB makes his ERA look a bit better. The Pirates have just a 9.9 HR/FB at home, so that last one may not be a candidate for immediate regression, but they don’t strike out a lot and do exhibit patience. While we recognize some gains over the last month not just limited to the no-hitter, this guy has been driving people nuts for years. There’s an extensive track record involved. Something around $8K seems about appropriate here.
Ben Lively lasted seven innings in his major league debut against the Giants. He walked three and didn’t strike out anybody. His strikeout rate hovered around average in the high minors, while his walk rate improved each year. His upside appears to be back of the rotation. The Braves have just a 13.4 K% over the last week.
Alec Asher has allowed six runs in 18.2 innings with 14 strikeouts, two walks and three HRs in starts not against the Houston Astros, but has had just a 7.4 SwStr% in each of his last two starts. He’s in a tough spot in Washington tonight.
Jason Hammel gets the dreaded Houston matchup. They are basically akin to facing a league average offense at Coors right now.
Kyle Gibson has struck out a few more batters in three starts since returning, but has walked a few more too and has not completed six innings in any start this year.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | Orioles | L2 Years | 14.2% | 5.5% | Road | 12.7% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 2.4% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Years | 0.0% | 11.5% | Road | L14 Days | 0.0% | 11.5% | ||
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | L2 Years | 14.7% | 5.8% | Home | 20.8% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 8.0% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 14.4% | 7.1% | Road | 12.8% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 1.8% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.3% | 5.2% | Road | 21.5% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 6.7% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.7% | 8.0% | Road | 15.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 13.6% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 17.6% | 9.3% | Road | 15.0% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 8.1% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.8% | 5.9% | Home | 19.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 5.9% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.5% | 7.4% | Home | 22.6% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 16.3% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 20.9% | 7.8% | Home | 20.6% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 8.3% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 17.6% | 6.8% | Road | 18.6% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 2.1% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 21.2% | 6.5% | Home | 19.3% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 6.8% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.7% | 5.4% | Road | 24.5% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 2.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.2% | 6.6% | Home | 25.1% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 11.6% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 17.4% | 8.8% | Road | 15.7% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 13.0% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.1% | 9.7% | Road | 25.1% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 8.3% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.0% | 6.1% | Home | 19.4% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 3.3% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.3% | 5.9% | Home | 27.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.6% | 4.5% | Road | 16.8% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 2.4% |
| Paolo Espino | Brewers | L2 Years | 16.7% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | ||||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.6% | Home | 19.4% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 8.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 15.1% | 8.3% | Home | 15.4% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 7.0% | 17.5% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 16.2% | 7.0% | Home | 17.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 6.7% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.3% | 10.9% | Road | 19.9% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 25.3% | 10.7% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 19.1% | 9.6% | RH | 19.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.4% |
| Braves | Home | 19.7% | 8.6% | RH | 19.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 13.4% | 7.9% |
| Twins | Road | 21.3% | 8.8% | RH | 22.5% | 10.1% | L7Days | 22.8% | 7.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.5% | 8.9% | LH | 24.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 27.3% | 11.6% |
| Yankees | Home | 24.2% | 10.8% | LH | 23.8% | 10.8% | L7Days | 25.0% | 6.9% |
| Rays | Home | 25.2% | 10.1% | LH | 27.7% | 10.7% | L7Days | 26.8% | 8.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.5% | 9.4% | RH | 18.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.7% | 8.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.2% | 6.1% | RH | 20.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 23.4% | 7.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.8% | 6.0% | RH | 23.7% | 6.0% | L7Days | 25.4% | 6.1% |
| Astros | Road | 18.3% | 9.1% | RH | 18.2% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.5% | 7.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.3% | 10.1% | RH | 22.9% | 10.2% | L7Days | 14.0% | 8.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.2% | 6.2% | RH | 22.2% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.2% | 5.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.9% | 8.8% | RH | 25.1% | 8.7% | L7Days | 32.8% | 7.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.5% | 7.6% | LH | 23.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 23.6% | 12.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.4% | 10.0% | RH | 20.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.9% | 9.0% |
| Royals | Home | 19.4% | 6.8% | RH | 21.1% | 6.3% | L7Days | 21.2% | 4.4% |
| Angels | Road | 21.5% | 9.7% | RH | 19.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 16.1% | 8.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.6% | 8.9% | RH | 18.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.0% | 5.7% |
| Reds | Home | 21.5% | 8.9% | RH | 21.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.2% | 10.9% |
| Giants | Road | 19.9% | 8.5% | RH | 19.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 16.9% | 11.5% |
| Padres | Road | 26.7% | 7.1% | LH | 23.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 32.8% | 4.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.5% | 7.2% | RH | 23.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.2% | 4.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.8% | 8.4% | RH | 20.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 25.1% | 9.9% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.0% | 10.2% | RH | 21.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.7% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.2% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 2017 | 30.6% | 12.5% | 9.9% | Road | 35.9% | 11.4% | 19.9% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 11.8% | -3.1% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Years | 18.2% | 0.0% | -13.6% | 2017 | 18.2% | 0.0% | -13.6% | Road | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | -13.6% | |||
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | L2 Years | 34.4% | 14.7% | 18.9% | 2017 | 31.1% | 15.6% | 15.1% | Home | 32.6% | 10.8% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 12.5% | 5.4% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 27.3% | 13.9% | 7.3% | 2017 | 30.0% | 17.8% | 11.9% | Road | 27.3% | 19.6% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 31.1% | 11.1% | 4.4% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.1% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 2017 | 24.1% | 16.7% | -17.3% | Road | 33.4% | 11.4% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 16.7% | -17.3% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 34.7% | 12.7% | 18.3% | 2017 | 39.3% | 13.8% | 21.0% | Road | 35.2% | 12.2% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 48.2% | 40.0% | 29.7% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.3% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 2017 | 34.3% | 12.0% | 16.2% | Road | 35.0% | 16.8% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.4% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 2017 | 35.1% | 19.7% | 18.0% | Home | 32.2% | 11.2% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 51.3% | 46.2% | 38.5% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 31.9% | 12.7% | 14.7% | 2017 | 34.2% | 18.0% | 22.8% | Home | 34.4% | 12.4% | 17.1% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 21.4% | 36.7% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 33.3% | 13.2% | 15.6% | 2017 | 32.3% | 10.6% | 16.1% | Home | 29.3% | 10.0% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 12.5% | 16.0% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 31.2% | 16.1% | 13.1% | 2017 | 36.7% | 17.2% | 21.1% | Road | 31.4% | 17.1% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 20.0% | 27.5% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.5% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 2017 | 39.4% | 22.5% | 18.2% | Home | 29.8% | 13.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 45.2% | 21.4% | 22.6% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 29.4% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 2017 | 36.5% | 16.4% | 23.0% | Road | 31.7% | 18.0% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 9.1% | 34.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.1% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 2017 | 25.5% | 13.1% | 4.5% | Home | 26.1% | 9.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 23.1% | 16.2% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 30.8% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 2017 | 39.3% | 16.7% | 24.8% | Road | 33.0% | 13.4% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 53.3% | 0.0% | 43.3% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 26.7% | 12.8% | 5.1% | 2017 | 25.0% | 18.2% | 2.2% | Road | 31.5% | 6.9% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 2017 | 25.1% | 5.8% | 8.4% | Home | 32.0% | 9.0% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 30.7% | 18.2% | 12.6% | 2017 | 26.8% | 22.0% | 9.3% | Home | 33.2% | 20.5% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 16.7% | -13.2% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.1% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 2017 | 27.9% | 12.9% | 12.0% | Road | 33.4% | 10.6% | 18.0% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 22.2% | 19.3% |
| Paolo Espino | Brewers | L2 Years | 26.7% | 0.0% | 13.4% | 2017 | 26.7% | 0.0% | 13.4% | Home | L14 Days | ||||||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 36.1% | 17.0% | 20.5% | 2017 | 36.0% | 19.7% | 20.6% | Home | 41.1% | 17.2% | 28.4% | L14 Days | 41.0% | 36.4% | 23.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 27.0% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 2017 | 28.6% | 17.9% | 3.9% | Home | 28.8% | 18.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 7.1% | 4.7% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 27.1% | 13.3% | 7.1% | 2017 | 32.3% | 15.1% | 11.3% | Home | 28.4% | 12.3% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 40.0% | 20.5% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.5% | 15.3% | 9.3% | 2017 | 29.5% | 23.8% | 6.5% | Road | 25.2% | 10.0% | -0.6% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 10.0% | -2.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 32.8% | 15.6% | 15.5% | RH | 31.0% | 14.4% | 13.2% | L7Days | 28.6% | 15.5% | 8.0% |
| Braves | Home | 31.6% | 11.8% | 14.1% | RH | 31.2% | 10.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 31.3% | 11.1% | 9.8% |
| Twins | Road | 32.4% | 13.6% | 16.8% | RH | 33.6% | 14.0% | 18.4% | L7Days | 32.5% | 16.4% | 16.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 39.8% | 17.7% | 27.0% | LH | 31.4% | 13.3% | 16.5% | L7Days | 34.4% | 13.2% | 19.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.5% | 19.4% | 7.9% | LH | 29.2% | 13.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 38.6% | 18.6% | 24.0% |
| Rays | Home | 35.7% | 13.7% | 16.7% | LH | 33.5% | 11.2% | 10.5% | L7Days | 28.7% | 11.1% | 4.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.9% | 9.9% | 7.9% | RH | 30.5% | 10.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 36.9% | 13.2% | 16.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.2% | 13.2% | 10.0% | RH | 31.0% | 13.4% | 11.2% | L7Days | 29.7% | 12.5% | 11.7% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.3% | 14.2% | 13.8% | RH | 29.4% | 13.5% | 10.4% | L7Days | 44.3% | 11.1% | 32.8% |
| Astros | Road | 31.6% | 14.5% | 14.2% | RH | 31.6% | 15.4% | 14.1% | L7Days | 34.3% | 17.9% | 18.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 50.3% | 14.5% | 37.5% | RH | 42.8% | 12.8% | 28.2% | L7Days | 55.0% | 21.6% | 47.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 36.1% | 14.8% | 17.7% | RH | 29.9% | 14.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 33.3% | 21.9% | 11.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 38.2% | 18.5% | 17.4% | RH | 34.1% | 18.1% | 15.0% | L7Days | 38.3% | 17.0% | 16.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.7% | 12.8% | 10.2% | LH | 31.3% | 16.3% | 11.5% | L7Days | 29.1% | 16.3% | 8.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.7% | 12.5% | 9.6% | RH | 30.4% | 12.3% | 12.4% | L7Days | 31.9% | 19.4% | 12.9% |
| Royals | Home | 31.9% | 9.0% | 12.8% | RH | 32.2% | 12.0% | 12.9% | L7Days | 38.3% | 8.8% | 22.1% |
| Angels | Road | 32.6% | 11.1% | 13.7% | RH | 29.9% | 12.9% | 10.0% | L7Days | 28.7% | 13.6% | 8.9% |
| Red Sox | Road | 32.6% | 12.9% | 12.4% | RH | 35.4% | 10.2% | 17.7% | L7Days | 26.4% | 14.5% | -1.3% |
| Reds | Home | 29.2% | 16.1% | 7.5% | RH | 29.0% | 14.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 30.4% | 22.6% | 3.8% |
| Giants | Road | 30.5% | 9.7% | 9.9% | RH | 28.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% | L7Days | 25.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% |
| Padres | Road | 31.0% | 15.0% | 9.6% | LH | 29.4% | 10.4% | 7.0% | L7Days | 39.1% | 20.5% | 19.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 28.4% | 11.2% | 6.5% | RH | 29.5% | 11.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 29.9% | 18.8% | 14.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.6% | 11.2% | 15.5% | RH | 30.6% | 12.0% | 11.3% | L7Days | 31.0% | 12.8% | 10.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.2% | 16.3% | 14.4% | RH | 29.8% | 12.6% | 12.7% | L7Days | 32.9% | 16.7% | 16.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | 18.3% | 9.5% | 1.93 | 20.0% | 11.0% | 1.82 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 0.0% | 5.1% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 5.1% | 0.00 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 14.5% | 7.3% | 1.99 | 14.6% | 7.1% | 2.06 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.96 | 17.9% | 7.4% | 2.42 |
| David Price | BOS | 24.4% | 12.2% | 2.00 | 24.4% | 12.2% | 2.00 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.31 | 19.5% | 7.9% | 2.47 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 22.1% | 9.1% | 2.43 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 2.27 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 20.3% | 9.3% | 2.18 | 14.8% | 8.5% | 1.74 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 20.5% | 11.3% | 1.81 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 1.72 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 17.7% | 8.8% | 2.01 | 16.3% | 8.8% | 1.85 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 18.9% | 8.6% | 2.20 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 2.02 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.19 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 2.01 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 24.2% | 12.4% | 1.95 | 28.5% | 13.8% | 2.07 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 23.8% | 10.8% | 2.20 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 2.25 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 15.4% | 10.4% | 1.48 | 20.8% | 12.5% | 1.66 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 28.2% | 12.2% | 2.31 | 27.2% | 12.0% | 2.27 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 19.3% | 9.7% | 1.99 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 1.78 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 25.1% | 13.6% | 1.85 | 18.6% | 13.5% | 1.38 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.18 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 2.12 |
| Paolo Espino | MIL | 16.7% | 7.0% | 2.39 | 16.7% | 7.0% | 2.39 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 17.8% | 9.6% | 1.85 | 16.4% | 7.0% | 2.34 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 10.7% | 6.2% | 1.73 | 7.7% | 5.4% | 1.43 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 18.8% | 8.2% | 2.29 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 2.52 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 20.3% | 10.1% | 2.01 | 24.0% | 11.7% | 2.05 |
It’s just a perennial offender and a knuckleballer today.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | 3.62 | 4.29 | 0.67 | 4.93 | 1.31 | 4.77 | 1.15 | 5.17 | 1.55 | 4.58 | 4.06 | -0.52 | 4.9 | 0.32 | 5.14 | 0.56 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 1.29 | 7.47 | 6.18 | 6.77 | 5.48 | 4.77 | 3.48 | 5.79 | 4.50 | 1.29 | 7.47 | 6.18 | 6.77 | 5.48 | 4.77 | 3.48 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 4.36 | 5.04 | 0.68 | 5.32 | 0.96 | 5.7 | 1.34 | 7.17 | 2.81 | 4.6 | 5.11 | 0.51 | 5.35 | 0.75 | 5.96 | 1.36 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 4.36 | 3.88 | -0.48 | 3.54 | -0.82 | 3.88 | -0.48 | 4.82 | 0.46 | 3.74 | 3.46 | -0.28 | 3.14 | -0.6 | 3 | -0.74 |
| David Price | BOS | 3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 4.22 | 1.22 | 4.64 | 1.64 | 2.92 | -0.08 | 3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 4.22 | 1.22 | 4.64 | 1.64 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 3.43 | 4.71 | 1.28 | 4.99 | 1.56 | 5.04 | 1.61 | 5.63 | 2.20 | 5.27 | 4.97 | -0.3 | 5.06 | -0.21 | 6.75 | 1.48 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 3.79 | 4.71 | 0.92 | 4.33 | 0.54 | 4.18 | 0.39 | 3.15 | -0.64 | 3 | 4.25 | 1.25 | 4 | 1 | 3.51 | 0.51 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 4.27 | 4.02 | -0.25 | 3.92 | -0.35 | 4.79 | 0.52 | 4.48 | 0.21 | 5.97 | 4.73 | -1.24 | 4.64 | -1.33 | 6.2 | 0.23 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.53 | 4.48 | 0.95 | 4.52 | 0.99 | 5.24 | 1.71 | 4.98 | 1.45 | 4.15 | 5 | 0.85 | 5.14 | 0.99 | 5.79 | 1.64 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 5.93 | 4.92 | -1.01 | 5.35 | -0.58 | 4.81 | -1.12 | 6.42 | 0.49 | 6.3 | 4.95 | -1.35 | 5.46 | -0.84 | 5.53 | -0.77 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.11 | 4.11 | 0 | 3.97 | -0.14 | 4.45 | 0.34 | 3.65 | -0.46 | 4.5 | 4.35 | -0.15 | 4.17 | -0.33 | 5.62 | 1.12 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 7.34 | 4.06 | -3.28 | 4.13 | -3.21 | 5.67 | -1.67 | 5.52 | -1.82 | 7.2 | 3.91 | -3.29 | 3.99 | -3.21 | 5.13 | -2.07 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 4.38 | 3.65 | -0.73 | 3.46 | -0.92 | 3.84 | -0.54 | 3.42 | -0.96 | 4.22 | 3.06 | -1.16 | 2.73 | -1.49 | 2.93 | -1.29 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.91 | 3.94 | 0.03 | 3.7 | -0.21 | 3.66 | -0.25 | 3.50 | -0.41 | 4.8 | 3.81 | -0.99 | 3.45 | -1.35 | 3.73 | -1.07 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 7.23 | 5.21 | -2.02 | 5.1 | -2.13 | 5.52 | -1.71 | 6.37 | -0.86 | 5.63 | 4.77 | -0.86 | 4.26 | -1.37 | 3.87 | -1.76 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 2.71 | 2.97 | 0.26 | 2.68 | -0.03 | 2.97 | 0.26 | 2.39 | -0.32 | 1.65 | 2.78 | 1.13 | 2.57 | 0.92 | 2.47 | 0.82 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3.89 | 0.89 | 2.98 | -0.02 | 2.72 | -0.28 | 3.25 | 4.03 | 0.78 | 3.87 | 0.62 | 2.23 | -1.02 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 3.76 | 3.43 | -0.33 | 3.37 | -0.39 | 4.39 | 0.63 | 2.49 | -1.27 | 4.5 | 4.4 | -0.1 | 4.36 | -0.14 | 5.16 | 0.66 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 2.64 | 3.84 | 1.2 | 3.65 | 1.01 | 3.59 | 0.95 | 3.63 | 0.99 | 3.63 | 3.72 | 0.09 | 3.68 | 0.05 | 4.79 | 1.16 |
| Paolo Espino | MIL | 4.5 | 4.07 | -0.43 | 3.74 | -0.76 | 1.56 | -2.94 | 7.48 | 2.98 | 4.5 | 4.07 | -0.43 | 3.74 | -0.76 | 1.56 | -2.94 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 5.43 | 4.33 | -1.1 | 4.25 | -1.18 | 5.12 | -0.31 | 7.31 | 1.88 | 7.67 | 4.44 | -3.23 | 4.46 | -3.21 | 6.73 | -0.94 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 5.1 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 5.66 | 0.56 | 6.26 | 1.16 | 8.81 | 3.71 | 6.07 | 6.58 | 0.51 | 6.66 | 0.59 | 6.3 | 0.23 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 4.52 | 4.59 | 0.07 | 4.25 | -0.27 | 4.43 | -0.09 | 4.66 | 0.14 | 5.76 | 4.44 | -1.32 | 4.07 | -1.69 | 5.1 | -0.66 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 4.6 | 4.46 | -0.14 | 3.91 | -0.69 | 4.69 | 0.09 | 3.54 | -1.06 | 4.4 | 4.45 | 0.05 | 3.83 | -0.57 | 3.37 | -1.03 |
Michael Pineda looks like he’s had a bad month, but look at his SwStr%. A return to his normal strikeout rate would bring his K% up and his estimators down, while it was really just one terrible start. He’ll probably always have a bit of a HR problem in that park.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | 0.306 | 0.257 | -0.049 | 33.9% | 0.22 | 22.9% | 87.2% | 86.1 | 7.20% | 5.20% | 111 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 0.297 | 0.182 | -0.115 | 50.0% | 0.136 | 12.5% | 94.3% | ||||
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 0.282 | 0.283 | 0.001 | 41.7% | 0.146 | 13.3% | 89.1% | 88.5 | 7.50% | 5.80% | 106 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.302 | 0.345 | 0.043 | 57.8% | 0.232 | 4.4% | 88.8% | 86 | 4.90% | 3.80% | 243 |
| David Price | BOS | 0.312 | 0.111 | -0.201 | 37.9% | 0.207 | 16.7% | 86.4% | ||||
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.274 | 0.273 | -0.001 | 36.2% | 0.205 | 5.0% | 87.2% | 89.2 | 9.70% | 6.60% | 186 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 0.276 | 0.288 | 0.012 | 47.9% | 0.215 | 6.0% | 87.2% | 87.3 | 6.00% | 3.90% | 166 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.302 | 0.285 | -0.017 | 46.0% | 0.18 | 5.3% | 86.6% | 87.3 | 9.50% | 7.00% | 222 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.283 | 0.225 | -0.058 | 33.3% | 0.252 | 3.3% | 82.0% | 86.5 | 6.70% | 4.80% | 149 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.302 | 0.328 | 0.026 | 34.0% | 0.215 | 8.2% | 88.9% | 88.5 | 7.30% | 5.30% | 192 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.282 | 0.287 | 0.005 | 45.7% | 0.218 | 7.8% | 88.9% | 87.2 | 6.00% | 4.50% | 199 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.293 | 0.365 | 0.072 | 37.6% | 0.228 | 0.0% | 85.0% | 86.5 | 9.60% | 7.10% | 104 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.307 | 0.305 | -0.002 | 40.6% | 0.258 | 9.6% | 84.4% | 88 | 7.20% | 5.00% | 222 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.289 | 0.323 | 0.034 | 50.0% | 0.186 | 1.6% | 83.3% | 85.1 | 4.00% | 2.70% | 200 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.275 | 0.362 | 0.087 | 50.7% | 0.201 | 2.4% | 88.8% | 89 | 9.00% | 6.50% | 145 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.291 | 0.287 | -0.004 | 61.7% | 0.194 | 3.0% | 88.2% | 85.6 | 5.00% | 3.10% | 180 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.301 | 0.283 | -0.018 | 48.9% | 0.204 | 10.1% | 87.8% | 85.3 | 4.40% | 3.30% | 227 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.280 | 0.276 | -0.004 | 50.3% | 0.171 | 6.8% | 86.0% | 87 | 7.10% | 4.90% | 183 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.288 | 0.234 | -0.054 | 54.1% | 0.18 | 1.6% | 89.6% | 87.4 | 5.30% | 4.10% | 226 |
| Paolo Espino | MIL | 0.305 | 0.333 | 0.028 | 38.5% | 0.231 | 0.0% | 100.0% | ||||
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.290 | 0.332 | 0.042 | 49.1% | 0.195 | 8.5% | 86.8% | 89.5 | 8.30% | 6.30% | 228 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.282 | 0.279 | -0.003 | 50.9% | 0.189 | 13.4% | 88.8% | 84.6 | 5.30% | 4.00% | 227 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.278 | 0.305 | 0.027 | 43.0% | 0.285 | 9.4% | 87.1% | 83.8 | 5.60% | 4.00% | 195 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.287 | 0.263 | -0.024 | 57.4% | 0.213 | 2.4% | 88.9% | 85.1 | 5.00% | 3.40% | 200 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Lance McCullers (1) is the only $10K pitcher on the board on either site and deservedly so. With 17 of 22 batters either putting it on the ground or striking out with very little hard contact in his last start, getting knocked out before finishing five innings appears to have been a fluke. He’s the top pitcher on the slate by a pretty significant margin.
Value Tier Two
Michael Pineda is coming off his worst start of the season and while an assignment at Yankee Stadium against the Red Sox is not enviable, this is not nearly the same offense as last year. They’ve been below average against RHP.
Value Tier Three
David Price looks to be his old self after two starts and shouldn’t have any strict workload limits imposed. It’s not a favorable spot on the road against the Yankees though.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jon Lester certainly gives us reason for concern over his last two starts, but there’s a long track record there and not very many other reliable pitchers on the slate, though the top end is strong. He does have a favorable matchup, but would probably be the last of the $9K+ pitchers I’d choose today.
Tyler Chatwood has this narrative that he’s a much better pitcher on the road and who isn’t when you call Coors home, but that might be over-stated. While he’s probably your best choice for less than $8K, he still issues a lot of walks away from home, playing directly into the strength of this Chicago offense and has mostly found himself in great spots in his road starts this year. He should keep the ball on the ground and generate strikeouts at something close to a league average rate though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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