Advanced Stats – Pitching: Tuesday, August 29th
Thankfully, yesterday’s star studded board left us Chris Sale for tonight. Rich Hill and Zack Godley aren’t terrible secondary options either, but they’re facing each other in a terrible park. Things may still be okay because there are two pitchers with a strikeout rate above 30% over the last month who I haven’t even mentioned yet. Unfortunately, on the day we have some affordable arms on the slate, the pitching at Coors isn’t bad.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 2.1 | 4.65 | 5.97 | 46.8% | 1.06 | 4.96 | 3.2 | KAN | 90 | 90 | 42 |
| Brett Anderson | TOR | -0.7 | 4.43 | 4.27 | 56.9% | 1.03 | 4.88 | BOS | 95 | 101 | 93 | |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -1.6 | 4.72 | 5. | 43.7% | 0.96 | 4.21 | 5.49 | CHC | 104 | 97 | 117 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 1.7 | 6.33 | 4.67 | 38.5% | 1.02 | 6.5 | 6.94 | CIN | 101 | 101 | 92 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 5.3 | 3.03 | 6.91 | 39.7% | 1.03 | 3.27 | 4.01 | TOR | 93 | 98 | 99 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | -9.8 | 4.76 | 5.6 | 40.2% | 0.91 | 4.98 | 5.2 | ANA | 96 | 96 | 98 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -6 | 4.4 | 5.74 | 33.7% | 1.02 | 4.74 | 2.73 | SEA | 92 | 102 | 81 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 2 | 5.12 | 5.81 | 39.1% | 1.01 | 5.13 | 6.05 | MIA | 101 | 99 | 129 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 7 | 4.03 | 5.29 | 49.5% | 1.02 | 4.38 | 4.7 | BAL | 108 | 102 | 122 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -0.3 | 4.34 | 6.35 | 42.0% | 1.04 | 4.48 | 3.89 | CHW | 93 | 89 | 83 |
| German Marquez | COL | -3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 44.2% | 1.39 | 3.91 | 4.67 | DET | 88 | 93 | 98 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 0.9 | 4.19 | 5.8 | 55.4% | 1.01 | 3.55 | 6.31 | CLE | 102 | 103 | 127 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4 | 3.76 | 6.31 | 51.1% | 0.96 | 3.66 | 3.95 | PIT | 84 | 87 | 60 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 3 | 4.6 | 5.79 | 37.6% | 1.06 | 4.69 | 4.05 | TAM | 100 | 105 | 142 |
| James Shields | CHW | -0.1 | 4.98 | 5.54 | 40.0% | 1.04 | 5.47 | 4.22 | MIN | 103 | 100 | 96 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -3.9 | 4.16 | 5.7 | 60.7% | 0.91 | 4.14 | 4.21 | SFO | 81 | 82 | 71 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | -0.3 | 3.59 | 4.91 | 35.7% | 1.02 | 3.53 | 3.28 | MIL | 92 | 93 | 52 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 0.8 | 4.38 | 5.62 | 49.1% | 0.96 | 3.93 | 5.66 | ATL | 90 | 88 | 91 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.8 | 4.98 | 5.91 | 51.2% | 0.94 | 4.8 | 4.83 | HOU | 123 | 120 | 89 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -2 | 4.94 | 5.27 | 47.8% | 1.02 | 4.72 | 5.14 | STL | 96 | 101 | 107 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | -4.1 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 38.3% | 0.91 | 4.99 | 5.37 | SDG | 86 | 75 | 64 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 1 | 4.24 | 6.34 | 49.1% | 1.39 | 4.02 | 5.43 | COL | 93 | 83 | 79 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -4.6 | 4.28 | 5.59 | 41.3% | 0.94 | 3.99 | 3.6 | TEX | 82 | 100 | 77 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | -1 | 4.79 | 6.05 | 44.6% | 0.96 | 4.84 | 3.61 | PHI | 98 | 88 | 125 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 3.4 | 3.4 | 5.63 | 0.427 | 1.13 | 3.29 | 3.42 | ARI | 105 | 77 | 96 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 6.2 | 4.95 | 5.22 | 0.5 | 1.02 | 5.41 | 4.74 | NYM | 107 | 100 | 102 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 1.1 | 4.1 | 5.83 | 0.473 | 1.01 | 4.07 | 3.6 | NYY | 110 | 110 | 111 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 4.1 | 5.13 | 4.67 | 0.25 | 0.91 | 6.07 | 3.79 | OAK | 88 | 102 | 127 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 1.8 | 4.81 | 4.87 | 0.479 | 1.01 | 5.13 | 5.73 | WAS | 113 | 103 | 81 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -5.2 | 3.95 | 5.68 | 0.535 | 1.13 | 4.06 | 3.64 | LOS | 102 | 106 | 92 |
Chris Sale has been smashed by Cleveland twice this month, so some people are rationalizing that it’s a Cleveland problem, if it’s a problem at all. He also allowed four runs (two HRs) in a start against the Yankees with one of his two double digit strikeout starts for the month against the Rays. A 12.3 K% is still an excellent mark, but his season rate is 15.2%. He hasn’t seen that mark since his first start back from the break, a month and a half ago. His last start was the first time he’s been above a 30% hard hit rate in a month. It was just 11.1% even in his prior start against the Tribe. Concern isn’t the right word, but he’s been a bit less than he’s previously been since the break. That was tough to sustain though. His 3.1% Barrels/PA is second best on the board. The Blue Jays…well, they’re here too and they’re neutral, but have a 27.1 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Dylan Bundy has done so much damage that the overall numbers still don’t like him very much despite a 31.4 K% (15.5 SwStr%) and ERA estimators right around three over the last month. His 11.1 SwStr% for the season is fourth best on the board. An 88.6 mph aEV and 32.1 GB% are a problem in that park. He’s allowed 24 HRs in 24 starts this season after not allowing his first until his last start in April. While he has struck out 28 of his last 77 batters (36.3%, 17.3 SwStr%), he has a 43.5 Hard-Soft% over that span as well. The Mariners have had an issue hitting for power on the road (11.2 HR/FB) with two of the four parks in their division difficult power environments. This shouldn’t be.
Jake Arrieta has not allowed more than two ERs in a start since the break. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in five of eight starts, though only completed it once. His 15.8 K-BB% over that span is above average, but it’s a 6.5 Hard-Soft% that’s been most impressive. However, his ground ball rate has been below 40% in half of these starts and three of his last four. He has one of the top matchups on the board against a weak hitting Pittsburgh offense with a 25.8 K% over the last week.
Luke Weaver struck out a season high 10 of 26 Padres last time out, which puts him at 26 of 93 major league batters for the season. The issue last season was hard contact and HRs in particular. That issue seemed to be solved at AAA this season (3.7 HR/FB) and, in fact, he’s allowed just two so far with a 27.6 Hard%, 84.7 mph aEV (fourth best on the board) and 3.2% Barrels/PA (third best on the board). He’s facing the Brewers tonight. They have a 19.1 HR/FB at home and 18.9 HR/FB vs RHP, but just a 9.8 HR/FB over the last week with a 31.4 K%. They have a 26.4 K% at home and 25.7 K% vs RHP this year.
R.A. Dickey has a 15.1 K-BB% and 0.4 Hard-Soft% over his last 14 starts. He’s had four multiple HR outings over that span, but hasn’t allowed a HR in any other start. For the season, he has an 84.9 mph aEV and 28.2% 95+ mph EV. The Philies have a 23.6 HR/FB over the last week, but still strike out a lot and we all know where those HRs are coming from. Let’s see what he does with a knuckleball.
Rich Hill has the second highest strikeout rate on the board, though his SwStr% is behind both Garcia and Bundy. It took him a while to get going after an injury plagued start to the season, but over his last 11 starts, he has a 26.2 K-BB%, though still a 38.1 GB% and 33.1 Hard% that are a bit concerning in Arizona, despite an 84.1 mph EV and 28.2% 95+ mph EV that are board lows for those with more than six starts. He’s allowed seven HRs over his last five starts. Arizona has some terrible numbers against LHP for the season, including a 25.1 K%, but most of that went out the window with the acquisition of the top lefty masher in the league last month.
Zack Godley finds himself in a lot of unenviable spots and a good part of that is the park he pitches half his games in, while the Dodgers will add to that today with above average power and a double digit walk rate. His 26.4 K% is third best on the board, his 13.9 SwStr% second. His 55.6 GB% is second on the board as well. Among pitchers with more than six starts, only Hill has a lower aEV (85.3 mph), which is really saying something in Arizona.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Mark Leiter (.229 – 72.1% – 19.1) also has a 19.4% unearned run rate. He seems to do the opposite of whatever I expect him to do. He struck out 16 of 34 batters in two long relief outings, on at Coors then got a chance to start. He was pounded in San Diego with three walks and just one strikeout. Last time out, he shut out the Marlins for seven innings with five strikeouts. In order to make it easier for readers, I’ll not even attempt to project any expectations on him against a weak hitting, but not very strikeout prone Atlanta offense. He’s certainly a low cost SP2 candidate on DraftKings though.
Ervin Santana (.233 – 80.5% – 13.2) also has an 11.6% unearned run rate. He’s allowed 25 HRs over his last 20 starts. He has also struck out a quarter of batters faced over his last 40 innings though. Again, it’s not that I think he’s bad, but I still believe he’s either adequately or over-priced, even in a decent spot against the White Sox (20.0 K-BB% last seven days).
Michael Fulmer (.271 – 66.2% – 8.5) has a strand rate that’s off in the opposite direction, almost evening out his ERA against the low BABIP and HR rate. He’s been a solid contact manager, which actually tempts us to give him more credit for his ERA despite the low strikeout rate this year. Colorado is a bit too dangerous a spot to rely on contact management, though it will be interesting to see what people do in this spot tonight.
Alex Cobb (.276 – 74.6% – 12.1) doesn’t have any really egregious numbers, but does not have a SwStr above 4.5% in any of three starts over the last month. He also has a 23.1 Hard-Soft% and 88 mph aEV on the year. The Royals haven’t scored a run in nearly a week and have a 5.6 HR/FB and -4.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Edwin Jackson (.268 – 78.4% – 13.9) has a 28% unearned run rate with just an 8.3 K-BB%. However, he also has a double digit SwStr% with just 31.4% 95+ mph EV. Maybe it’s the estimators that don’t tell the full story. The Miami offense has a 25 HR/FB over the last week.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Erasmo Ramirez hasn’t been terrible in a starting role for the Mariners this month, but his Hard-Soft% is still hovering around 20%. However, RHBs have a .266 wOBA and 50.6 GB% against him this year. The Orioles have a 16.7 K-BB% over the last week, but also a 20.9 Hard-Soft%. It’s nearly interesting with a 10.4 SwStr% over the last month and for the year, but just a tough spot.
Mike Fiers will miss bats at an average rate and costs not too much in a game that has been moved from Houston to Tampa Bay. The Rangers have a 26.2 K% on the road, but retain their power (15.8 HR/FB on the road, 17.6 HR/FB vs RHP). The negative run environments for both Tampa Bay and Houston are similar, though Houston seems to still be more power friendly. That could help some for a pitcher who has allowed multiple HRs in five of his last eight starts. It’s really not a bad spot at a reasonable cost, but he’s one of the more unpredictable pitchers in the league. One of many arms I wouldn’t mind on DraftKings, but probably wouldn’t touch on a one pitcher site.
Luis Perdomo is an elite ground ball generator (62.7%) and is in a great spot, especially if Buster Posey remains out along with Brandon Belt, but may not have enough strikeout upside, even though the Giants have a 24.1 K% over the last week. They do have just an 8.9 HR/FB and 7.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP though and can probably be utilized as a cheap SP2 on DraftKings, if you like rooting for relatively hard hit ground balls (87.4 mph aEV) to find gloves, which partially explains the .332 BABIP and 4.9% Barrels/BBE. Increasing the strikeout rate just a few points would make him more interesting again.
Trevor Bauer is certainly missing enough bats, even if there’s some question about his SwStr% supporting his strikeout rate still. It’s still a double digit SwStr% over the last month. It’s also an 89.1 mph aEV and 40.2% 95+ mph EV he’s carrying into Yankee Stadium. His hard hit rate has been 33.3% or higher in each of his last four starts.
German Marquez has an 88.7 mph aEV and the worst spot on the board.
Jaime Garcia has turned the third highest SwStr rate (11.4%) on the board into a below average K%, though with a 54 GB%. He hasn’t completed six innings in any of four Yankee starts and why would he with that bullpen? Cleveland has a 7.2 K-BB% vs LHP and 22.1 HR/FB over the last week. It’s just a bad spot.
Matt Moore hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in three straight starts and is in another great spot in San Diego tonight (25 K% at home and vs LHP), but has struck out just 10 against six walks over his last two starts against Milwaukee and Philadelphia. His 88.9 mph aEV is second worst among those with at least 100 innings today and his 41.3% 95+ mph EV is worst among those with more than 25 IP.
Jakob Junis misses bats a league average rate, which should put him a great position against the Rays (24.7 K% vs RHP), but he also has an 89.1 mph aEV that’s tied for highest on the board among those with more than 25 IP, which could be in a lot of trouble against a high powered Rays’ offense (17.2 HR/FB vs RHP).
Chad Kuhl has walked five in three of his last six starts with a 7.7 SwStr% over the last month that does not support his K%. LHBs have a .367 wOBA, 37.9 GB% and 22.8 Hard-Soft% against him this season.
James Shields has been missing a lot of bats lately, which moves him slightly up this list, he’s still allowed 20 HRs in 15 starts. However, his barrels rate is now in single digits, his 87.6 mph aEV barely bottom 10 on the board and his hard hit rate has been below 30% in each of his last two starts, which hasn’t happened at all in 11 previous starts. Minnesota is an average offense with a 17.2 K-BB% and 21.8 Hard% over the last week.
Matt Garza has just an 85.2 mph aEV, but not nearly enough strikeouts.
Brett Anderson is pitching for the Blue Jays now…who knew? In 59 innings at three levels this year, he hasn’t exceeded a 5.1 K-BB% at any of them. In 22 major league innings, his 89.2 mph aEV and 43.4% 95+ mph EV are highest on the board.
Chris Smith has the highest rate of Barrels/PA (8.5%) on the board and has allowed 11 HRs over seven starts, as well as a defense that is at least 50% worse than any other in the league according to UZR/150.
Chris Flexen has walked one more than he’s struck out, but has the lowest aEV (83.9 mph) and 95+ mph EV (27.2%) on the board through six starts.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 16.1% | 6.2% | Road | 13.1% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 5.6% |
| Brett Anderson | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 12.1% | 7.3% | Home | 12.1% | 7.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 19.0% | 9.1% | Road | 20.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 15.0% |
| Chris Flexen | Mets | L2 Years | 14.3% | 15.0% | Road | 15.5% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 15.7% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.9% | 4.9% | Road | 30.2% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 8.2% |
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 18.7% | 9.7% | Road | 18.8% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 7.3% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.3% | 7.9% | Home | 20.3% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Edwin Jackson | Nationals | L2 Years | 16.3% | 9.9% | Home | 17.6% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 7.1% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | L2 Years | 18.4% | 5.8% | Road | 16.1% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 10.2% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.5% | Home | 19.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 7.4% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.2% | Home | 20.5% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 5.8% |
| Jaime Garcia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.2% | Home | 20.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 14.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.5% | 8.1% | Home | 26.3% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 10.0% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.1% | Home | 18.3% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 19.7% | 3.3% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 18.2% | 10.4% | Road | 15.3% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 10.9% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 16.3% | 7.8% | Home | 15.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 9.4% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Years | 27.3% | 7.7% | Road | 26.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 9.1% |
| Mark Leiter | Phillies | L2 Years | 20.7% | 9.7% | Home | 23.1% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 10.2% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.3% | 8.3% | Road | 12.1% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 5.1% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.2% | 8.2% | Home | 16.6% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 20.4% | 8.4% | Road | 19.8% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 11.8% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.8% | 6.3% | Road | 19.5% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 14.5% | 10.5% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.7% | 7.3% | Home | 21.7% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 6.3% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 16.8% | 8.0% | Road | 16.8% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 5.2% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.7% | 8.1% | Road | 31.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 5.8% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 18.6% | 10.6% | Home | 17.5% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 8.9% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.9% | 8.9% | Road | 22.8% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 8.5% |
| Troy Scribner | Angels | L2 Years | 20.8% | 9.7% | Home | 21.7% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 10.0% |
| Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.2% | 8.8% | Road | 13.9% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 9.5% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.7% | 8.6% | Home | 21.5% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 31.9% | 12.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | Home | 18.8% | 6.6% | RH | 20.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.6% | 4.6% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.5% | 8.8% | LH | 17.1% | 11.2% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.9% | 9.9% | RH | 22.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.7% | 12.0% |
| Reds | Home | 21.7% | 9.6% | RH | 20.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 22.9% | 10.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.1% | 8.8% | LH | 21.2% | 10.6% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.1% |
| Angels | Home | 18.5% | 7.9% | RH | 19.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.7% | 8.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.9% | 7.4% | RH | 20.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.6% | 6.9% | RH | 20.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.3% | 9.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.6% | 7.1% | RH | 21.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 22.0% | 5.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.6% | 6.1% | RH | 22.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 27.6% | 7.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.6% | 8.7% | RH | 22.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.1% |
| Indians | Road | 19.0% | 9.4% | LH | 17.6% | 10.4% | L7Days | 20.7% | 11.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 20.0% | 8.5% | RH | 18.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.8% | 9.3% |
| Rays | Road | 24.5% | 8.9% | RH | 24.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.9% | 9.0% |
| Twins | Home | 21.6% | 10.0% | RH | 22.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.8% | 6.6% |
| Giants | Road | 19.3% | 7.9% | RH | 19.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 24.1% | 7.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.4% | 8.6% | RH | 25.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 31.4% | 8.6% |
| Braves | Road | 19.3% | 7.5% | RH | 19.5% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.6% | 8.2% |
| Astros | Home | 16.6% | 7.8% | LH | 16.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.6% | 7.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.8% | 8.8% | RH | 21.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.6% | 9.2% |
| Padres | Home | 24.7% | 8.2% | LH | 25.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.2% | 6.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.2% | 8.4% | RH | 22.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.2% | 7.8% | RH | 23.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 24.6% | 5.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.1% | 8.3% | RH | 23.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.7% | 9.7% | LH | 25.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.7% | 11.2% |
| Mets | Road | 21.3% | 8.1% | RH | 19.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.4% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.0% | 10.3% | RH | 22.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 16.4% | 10.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.0% | 9.3% | RH | 24.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.4% | 10.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.2% | 8.9% | RH | 20.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 22.0% | 10.9% | RH | 22.2% | 10.3% | L7Days | 21.4% | 11.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 36.5% | 13.4% | 21.5% | 2017 | 37.7% | 12.1% | 23.1% | Road | 34.2% | 13.7% | 20.3% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Brett Anderson | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 28.7% | 23.3% | 2.3% | 2017 | 34.9% | 14.3% | 12.0% | Home | 41.1% | 29.4% | 20.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.3% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 2017 | 33.5% | 8.8% | 15.8% | Road | 32.9% | 6.5% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 44.0% | 16.7% | 28.0% |
| Chris Flexen | Mets | L2 Years | 33.7% | 15.8% | 8.7% | 2017 | 33.7% | 15.8% | 8.7% | Road | 28.2% | 14.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 11.1% | 8.1% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.0% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 2017 | 28.4% | 8.7% | 10.5% | Road | 29.7% | 5.3% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 18.2% | 12.5% |
| Chris Smith | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.0% | 16.3% | 16.0% | 2017 | 35.8% | 18.0% | 18.9% | Road | 29.2% | 19.4% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 48.4% | 16.7% | 35.5% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.8% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 2017 | 36.4% | 12.1% | 19.0% | Home | 31.4% | 11.5% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | 43.7% |
| Edwin Jackson | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.5% | 12.7% | 14.5% | 2017 | 32.1% | 13.9% | 6.3% | Home | 28.3% | 12.9% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 31.9% | 5.0% | 10.6% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Mariners | L2 Years | 33.3% | 14.5% | 16.2% | 2017 | 39.2% | 14.7% | 23.7% | Road | 35.2% | 21.0% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 0.0% | 11.7% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 29.4% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 2017 | 29.2% | 13.2% | 7.7% | Home | 29.0% | 13.1% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 11.8% | -5.7% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 34.8% | 13.7% | 18.7% | 2017 | 35.8% | 13.3% | 19.2% | Home | 33.0% | 17.5% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 41.5% | 41.7% | 19.5% |
| Jaime Garcia | Yankees | L2 Years | 30.9% | 15.5% | 10.4% | 2017 | 30.5% | 13.7% | 9.1% | Home | 30.8% | 21.8% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 46.9% | 20.0% | 34.4% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.7% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 2017 | 28.2% | 12.5% | 7.2% | Home | 24.4% | 8.3% | 0.7% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 0.0% | 6.5% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Years | 37.0% | 13.0% | 22.1% | 2017 | 37.0% | 13.0% | 22.1% | Home | 38.6% | 6.5% | 27.2% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 6.3% | 11.1% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 33.2% | 18.1% | 17.0% | 2017 | 33.1% | 17.7% | 15.2% | Road | 34.3% | 17.3% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 22.2% | -13.8% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.0% | 19.6% | 16.0% | 2017 | 31.9% | 16.9% | 14.6% | Home | 33.5% | 16.9% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 16.7% | 4.9% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.7% | 16.7% | 12.6% | 2017 | 27.6% | 9.5% | 8.6% | Road | 36.5% | 19.4% | 19.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 5.5% |
| Mark Leiter | Phillies | L2 Years | 25.8% | 19.2% | 3.0% | 2017 | 25.8% | 19.2% | 3.0% | Home | 22.4% | 11.8% | -3.0% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 16.7% | -5.4% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.8% | 11.3% | 16.2% | 2017 | 34.8% | 12.9% | 20.7% | Road | 33.9% | 10.9% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 5.9% | 22.7% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.7% | 12.5% | 17.1% | 2017 | 34.7% | 13.4% | 18.2% | Home | 37.1% | 12.4% | 20.4% | L14 Days | 44.1% | 21.4% | 35.3% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 31.8% | 10.9% | 15.4% | 2017 | 34.4% | 11.2% | 18.0% | Road | 34.1% | 11.6% | 18.9% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.2% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 2017 | 29.9% | 8.5% | 12.0% | Road | 27.4% | 10.9% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 30.9% | 14.3% | 9.1% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 32.4% | 17.2% | 13.8% | 2017 | 30.2% | 19.9% | 10.1% | Home | 33.4% | 15.7% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 13.3% | 3.1% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 27.6% | 13.8% | 5.3% | 2017 | 26.1% | 14.2% | 2.1% | Road | 28.8% | 12.1% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.5% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 2017 | 30.3% | 13.0% | 7.9% | Road | 26.4% | 9.3% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 13.3% | 8.8% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Years | 34.6% | 13.2% | 15.8% | 2017 | 34.6% | 13.2% | 15.8% | Home | 41.5% | 17.9% | 24.4% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 14.3% | 17.1% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 32.9% | 12.5% | 15.3% | 2017 | 35.3% | 16.3% | 20.5% | Road | 33.4% | 10.2% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 39.2% | 21.1% | 25.5% |
| Troy Scribner | Angels | L2 Years | 35.4% | 16.7% | 14.6% | 2017 | 35.4% | 16.7% | 14.6% | Home | 34.2% | 16.7% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 54.6% | 40.0% | 36.4% |
| Vance Worley | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.9% | 10.6% | 16.5% | 2017 | 36.5% | 9.1% | 20.0% | Road | 33.1% | 15.6% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 18.2% | 6.0% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 31.3% | 16.1% | 12.6% | 2017 | 30.2% | 13.9% | 9.9% | Home | 34.9% | 18.4% | 21.7% | L14 Days | 57.7% | 50.0% | 38.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | Home | 29.8% | 10.8% | 8.8% | RH | 30.9% | 12.0% | 11.0% | L7Days | 21.4% | 5.6% | -4.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 32.1% | 12.1% | 12.1% | LH | 30.4% | 10.1% | 6.4% | L7Days | 29.6% | 12.3% | 9.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.9% | 17.0% | 14.4% | RH | 31.4% | 15.6% | 13.6% | L7Days | 30.1% | 15.2% | 11.3% |
| Reds | Home | 28.6% | 15.7% | 7.7% | RH | 29.7% | 14.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 28.9% | 15.0% | 8.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.8% | 14.2% | 10.5% | LH | 29.4% | 13.5% | 11.0% | L7Days | 41.0% | 15.7% | 27.1% |
| Angels | Home | 29.2% | 12.4% | 10.1% | RH | 31.2% | 13.6% | 11.5% | L7Days | 30.0% | 10.0% | 11.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.7% | 11.2% | 13.6% | RH | 30.6% | 12.2% | 12.4% | L7Days | 30.9% | 10.5% | 14.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.1% | 15.2% | 8.5% | RH | 31.2% | 15.6% | 11.1% | L7Days | 25.1% | 25.0% | 5.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 31.8% | 17.0% | 12.1% | RH | 32.7% | 16.0% | 12.7% | L7Days | 37.9% | 18.2% | 20.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.1% | 13.9% | 13.0% | RH | 30.0% | 13.5% | 10.8% | L7Days | 27.6% | 12.2% | 9.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 34.5% | 12.1% | 17.2% | RH | 39.5% | 11.5% | 23.9% | L7Days | 35.4% | 15.5% | 21.4% |
| Indians | Road | 35.0% | 12.9% | 18.7% | LH | 31.2% | 12.6% | 12.9% | L7Days | 29.0% | 22.1% | 13.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.4% | 11.8% | 10.3% | RH | 30.2% | 10.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 26.4% | 11.1% | 7.5% |
| Rays | Road | 32.2% | 16.3% | 12.1% | RH | 35.1% | 17.2% | 17.2% | L7Days | 35.6% | 18.6% | 19.4% |
| Twins | Home | 33.9% | 12.9% | 17.3% | RH | 33.0% | 13.8% | 16.8% | L7Days | 21.8% | 17.2% | 5.8% |
| Giants | Road | 30.7% | 10.7% | 10.0% | RH | 28.2% | 8.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 30.1% | 10.0% | 12.6% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.6% | 19.1% | 18.9% | RH | 34.0% | 18.9% | 15.0% | L7Days | 34.3% | 9.8% | 11.4% |
| Braves | Road | 31.5% | 12.5% | 13.2% | RH | 30.6% | 11.3% | 12.1% | L7Days | 25.3% | 9.5% | 4.4% |
| Astros | Home | 30.7% | 15.2% | 13.0% | LH | 29.8% | 14.5% | 10.4% | L7Days | 30.8% | 11.4% | 13.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.8% | 13.6% | 15.6% | RH | 31.9% | 12.9% | 13.5% | L7Days | 33.6% | 15.4% | 19.5% |
| Padres | Home | 29.0% | 12.2% | 6.6% | LH | 30.8% | 12.5% | 10.7% | L7Days | 31.2% | 8.6% | 3.2% |
| Rockies | Home | 33.3% | 16.3% | 14.6% | RH | 30.8% | 13.1% | 11.0% | L7Days | 31.1% | 15.2% | 14.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.0% | 15.8% | 11.1% | RH | 35.1% | 17.6% | 16.9% | L7Days | 34.0% | 11.3% | 18.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.6% | 15.5% | 8.7% | RH | 30.5% | 12.6% | 10.0% | L7Days | 31.5% | 23.6% | 9.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 37.8% | 16.7% | 23.3% | LH | 32.9% | 15.8% | 15.7% | L7Days | 34.0% | 18.9% | 15.9% |
| Mets | Road | 35.8% | 15.8% | 18.5% | RH | 34.5% | 13.6% | 16.9% | L7Days | 30.6% | 12.7% | 11.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 29.6% | 18.1% | 8.6% | RH | 31.0% | 16.2% | 11.7% | L7Days | 33.3% | 11.0% | 10.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 34.3% | 12.6% | 16.3% | RH | 33.5% | 14.8% | 17.5% | L7Days | 34.2% | 17.6% | 19.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.8% | 14.7% | 15.2% | RH | 31.4% | 14.8% | 14.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 6.8% | 1.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.8% | 14.6% | 18.7% | RH | 35.8% | 14.7% | 19.9% | L7Days | 30.3% | 10.7% | 12.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 16.2% | 6.6% | 2.45 | 18.0% | 3.4% | 5.29 |
| Brett Anderson | TOR | 14.4% | 8.1% | 1.78 | |||
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 19.7% | 9.7% | 2.03 | 22.8% | 7.7% | 2.96 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 14.3% | 7.7% | 1.86 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 2.07 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 36.0% | 15.2% | 2.37 | 32.8% | 12.3% | 2.67 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 13.2% | 8.5% | 1.55 | 13.5% | 8.7% | 1.55 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 20.8% | 11.1% | 1.87 | 31.4% | 15.5% | 2.03 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 15.5% | 10.2% | 1.52 | 18.9% | 10.8% | 1.75 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 18.6% | 10.4% | 1.79 | 16.4% | 10.4% | 1.58 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 20.0% | 10.2% | 1.96 | 25.4% | 14.0% | 1.81 |
| German Marquez | COL | 21.4% | 9.2% | 2.33 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.23 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 18.0% | 11.4% | 1.58 | 16.3% | 10.1% | 1.61 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 23.4% | 9.2% | 2.54 | 25.6% | 9.6% | 2.67 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 19.2% | 9.6% | 2.00 | 21.4% | 10.1% | 2.12 |
| James Shields | CHW | 19.4% | 9.7% | 2.00 | 25.8% | 11.6% | 2.22 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 16.9% | 9.0% | 1.88 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 1.72 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | 28.0% | 9.8% | 2.86 | 31.7% | 11.1% | 2.86 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 20.7% | 7.6% | 2.72 | 25.6% | 11.0% | 2.33 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 14.3% | 7.6% | 1.88 | 12.3% | 7.3% | 1.68 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 15.9% | 8.2% | 1.94 | 14.9% | 7.9% | 1.89 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 19.5% | 8.9% | 2.19 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.46 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 17.1% | 9.5% | 1.80 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 1.91 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 22.9% | 9.3% | 2.46 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 2.40 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 16.8% | 8.7% | 1.93 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 2.38 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 28.8% | 11.0% | 2.62 | 29.4% | 11.9% | 2.47 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 18.6% | 8.3% | 2.24 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 2.11 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 26.1% | 8.8% | 2.97 | 28.8% | 10.5% | 2.74 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 20.8% | 10.5% | 1.98 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 1.98 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 15.1% | 5.1% | 2.96 | 9.9% | 5.1% | 1.94 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 26.4% | 13.9% | 1.90 | 26.8% | 13.4% | 2.00 |
Luke Weaver has a double digit SwStr% in each of his three starts, but it doesn’t support a 30% strikeout rate. It’s really that one performance against Padres last time out that hijacks things.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 3.69 | 4.67 | 0.98 | 4.43 | 0.74 | 4.21 | 0.52 | 4.21 | 0.52 | 6.08 | 4.59 | -1.49 | 4.13 | -1.95 | 4.33 | -1.75 |
| Brett Anderson | TOR | 8.18 | 5.12 | -3.06 | 4.45 | -3.73 | 4.49 | -3.69 | 7.06 | -1.12 | |||||||
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 4.52 | 4.86 | 0.34 | 4.62 | 0.1 | 3.99 | -0.53 | 4.73 | 0.21 | 3.33 | 4.78 | 1.45 | 4.47 | 1.14 | 3.83 | 0.5 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 5.79 | 6.33 | 0.54 | 6.57 | 0.78 | 6.91 | 1.12 | 7.14 | 1.35 | 5.4 | 6.08 | 0.68 | 6.25 | 0.85 | 6.41 | 1.01 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 2.88 | 2.58 | -0.3 | 2.71 | -0.17 | 2.07 | -0.81 | 2.07 | -0.81 | 5.4 | 3 | -2.4 | 3.08 | -2.32 | 2.96 | -2.44 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 5.56 | 5.46 | -0.1 | 5.59 | 0.03 | 6.36 | 0.8 | 7.37 | 1.81 | 7.3 | 5.48 | -1.82 | 5.97 | -1.33 | 7.34 | 0.04 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 4.18 | 4.55 | 0.37 | 4.85 | 0.67 | 4.56 | 0.38 | 4.63 | 0.45 | 2.67 | 2.95 | 0.28 | 3.19 | 0.52 | 2.57 | -0.1 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 3.38 | 5.13 | 1.75 | 5.43 | 2.05 | 5.44 | 2.06 | 5.76 | 2.38 | 2.61 | 4.55 | 1.94 | 4.73 | 2.12 | 3.61 | 1 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 4.52 | 4.23 | -0.29 | 4.24 | -0.28 | 4.36 | -0.16 | 3.76 | -0.76 | 3.76 | 4.67 | 0.91 | 4.56 | 0.8 | 4.91 | 1.15 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3.24 | 4.6 | 1.36 | 4.76 | 1.52 | 4.66 | 1.42 | 3.65 | 0.41 | 2.73 | 3.8 | 1.07 | 4.24 | 1.51 | 3.58 | 0.85 |
| German Marquez | COL | 4.18 | 4.31 | 0.13 | 4.26 | 0.08 | 4.18 | 0 | 5.27 | 1.09 | 4.11 | 4.37 | 0.26 | 4.2 | 0.09 | 4.96 | 0.85 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 4.52 | 4.69 | 0.17 | 4.35 | -0.17 | 4.33 | -0.19 | 5.13 | 0.61 | 5.95 | 5.73 | -0.22 | 5.41 | -0.54 | 6.23 | 0.28 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.49 | 4.09 | 0.6 | 4.03 | 0.54 | 3.87 | 0.38 | 4.05 | 0.56 | 1.44 | 3.88 | 2.44 | 3.95 | 2.51 | 2.59 | 1.15 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 4.68 | 4.6 | -0.08 | 5.13 | 0.45 | 4.98 | 0.3 | 5.35 | 0.67 | 3.32 | 3.86 | 0.54 | 4.17 | 0.85 | 2.53 | -0.79 |
| James Shields | CHW | 5.63 | 5.02 | -0.61 | 5.42 | -0.21 | 6.13 | 0.5 | 5.44 | -0.19 | 5.22 | 3.87 | -1.35 | 4.01 | -1.21 | 5.41 | 0.19 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 4.84 | 4.3 | -0.54 | 4.12 | -0.72 | 4.37 | -0.47 | 5.49 | 0.65 | 5.1 | 4.9 | -0.2 | 4.48 | -0.62 | 4.89 | -0.21 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | 2.31 | 3.65 | 1.34 | 3.67 | 1.36 | 3.17 | 0.86 | 3.83 | 1.52 | 1.17 | 3.28 | 2.11 | 3.35 | 2.18 | 2.67 | 1.5 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 3.86 | 4.38 | 0.52 | 4.47 | 0.61 | 5.1 | 1.24 | 3.55 | -0.31 | 3.22 | 3.28 | 0.06 | 3.35 | 0.13 | 4.47 | 1.25 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 5 | 5.03 | 0.03 | 4.69 | -0.31 | 4.57 | -0.43 | 5.01 | 0.01 | 6 | 4.91 | -1.09 | 4.7 | -1.3 | 5.07 | -0.93 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 4.67 | 5.13 | 0.46 | 5.01 | 0.34 | 4.94 | 0.27 | 5.09 | 0.42 | 7.61 | 5.81 | -1.8 | 6.05 | -1.56 | 7.86 | 0.25 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 5.38 | 4.75 | -0.63 | 4.97 | -0.41 | 4.51 | -0.87 | 6.24 | 0.86 | 4.02 | 4.24 | 0.22 | 4.39 | 0.37 | 3.93 | -0.09 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 3.69 | 4.45 | 0.76 | 4.22 | 0.53 | 3.6 | -0.09 | 3.51 | -0.18 | 5.63 | 5.32 | -0.31 | 4.97 | -0.66 | 5.17 | -0.46 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 4.17 | 4.36 | 0.19 | 4.52 | 0.35 | 5.37 | 1.2 | 5.25 | 1.08 | 5.97 | 5.16 | -0.81 | 5.75 | -0.22 | 6.93 | 0.96 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 4.06 | 4.92 | 0.86 | 4.83 | 0.77 | 4.88 | 0.82 | 4.86 | 0.80 | 3.38 | 4.06 | 0.68 | 3.79 | 0.41 | 4.19 | 0.81 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 3.32 | 3.79 | 0.47 | 4.01 | 0.69 | 3.89 | 0.57 | 4.79 | 1.47 | 2.93 | 3.51 | 0.58 | 3.54 | 0.61 | 4.69 | 1.76 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 4.96 | 4.95 | -0.01 | 4.86 | -0.1 | 4.78 | -0.18 | 5.81 | 0.85 | 5.23 | 4.63 | -0.6 | 4.54 | -0.69 | 4.42 | -0.81 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 4.59 | 3.85 | -0.74 | 3.6 | -0.99 | 3.88 | -0.71 | 4.60 | 0.01 | 2.45 | 3.38 | 0.93 | 3.21 | 0.76 | 3.89 | 1.44 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 4 | 5.13 | 1.13 | 5.96 | 1.96 | 6.57 | 2.57 | 6.22 | 2.22 | 4 | 5.13 | 1.13 | 5.96 | 1.96 | 6.57 | 2.57 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 5.7 | 4.76 | -0.94 | 4.69 | -1.01 | 4.13 | -1.57 | 5.74 | 0.04 | 4.78 | 5.4 | 0.62 | 5.11 | 0.33 | 4.53 | -0.25 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 3.15 | 3.65 | 0.5 | 3.27 | 0.12 | 3.27 | 0.12 | 2.77 | -0.38 | 3.45 | 3.99 | 0.54 | 3.61 | 0.16 | 4.1 | 0.65 |
Jake Arrieta has a 19.2% unearned run rate. In August, he has an 81.5 LOB% and 3.2 HR/FB.
Luke Weaver has a .268 BABIP, 86.2 LOB% and 9.5 HR/FB.
R.A. Dickey has a 10.4% unearned run rate.
Rich Hill has an 81.4 LOB% that’s actually kind of fine if he’s going to sustain a 25+ K-BB%, but that may be asking a bit too much.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.284 | 0.277 | -0.007 | 45.9% | 0.227 | 8.1% | 91.4% | 88 | 5.80% | 36.50% | 480 |
| Brett Anderson | TOR | 0.307 | 0.395 | 0.088 | 50.0% | 0.329 | 7.1% | 89.5% | 89.2 | 6.00% | 43.40% | 83 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.308 | 0.318 | 0.01 | 43.4% | 0.234 | 6.4% | 86.1% | 87.4 | 5.20% | 37.40% | 385 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 0.320 | 0.326 | 0.006 | 38.5% | 0.198 | 5.3% | 89.9% | 83.9 | 6.50% | 27.20% | 92 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.305 | 0.294 | -0.011 | 37.0% | 0.203 | 11.6% | 79.0% | 86.2 | 5.40% | 30.10% | 409 |
| Chris Smith | OAK | 0.292 | 0.234 | -0.058 | 38.1% | 0.204 | 6.6% | 86.2% | 87.4 | 10.80% | 34.50% | 148 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.315 | 0.274 | -0.041 | 32.1% | 0.209 | 12.6% | 85.1% | 88.6 | 8.00% | 36.90% | 426 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 0.293 | 0.268 | -0.025 | 38.7% | 0.148 | 15.3% | 86.1% | 86.4 | 8.20% | 31.40% | 159 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 0.279 | 0.267 | -0.012 | 47.4% | 0.177 | 4.9% | 84.5% | 87.8 | 8.40% | 35.50% | 296 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.298 | 0.233 | -0.065 | 41.3% | 0.166 | 13.2% | 88.3% | 85.5 | 5.90% | 30.60% | 494 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.302 | 0.302 | 0 | 42.2% | 0.232 | 9.4% | 89.4% | 88.7 | 7.20% | 37.20% | 374 |
| Jaime Garcia | NYY | 0.290 | 0.295 | 0.005 | 54.0% | 0.184 | 6.8% | 86.4% | 86.6 | 5.80% | 36.50% | 430 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.283 | 0.280 | -0.003 | 45.4% | 0.208 | 8.3% | 85.7% | 86.8 | 5.10% | 32.40% | 429 |
| Jakob Junis | KAN | 0.299 | 0.298 | -0.001 | 37.6% | 0.191 | 9.1% | 86.7% | 89.1 | 6.60% | 38.10% | 181 |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.288 | 0.277 | -0.011 | 37.2% | 0.176 | 7.1% | 84.8% | 87.6 | 9.20% | 36.70% | 251 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.307 | 0.332 | 0.025 | 62.7% | 0.17 | 8.4% | 90.5% | 87.4 | 4.90% | 36.00% | 411 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | 0.294 | 0.268 | -0.026 | 44.6% | 0.179 | 4.8% | 86.2% | 84.7 | 5.20% | 34.50% | 58 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 0.297 | 0.229 | -0.068 | 49.1% | 0.194 | 3.8% | 87.5% | 84.1 | 6.60% | 28.70% | 167 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.289 | 0.331 | 0.042 | 46.4% | 0.246 | 7.1% | 91.0% | 86.7 | 5.50% | 33.30% | 489 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.300 | 0.283 | -0.017 | 40.5% | 0.213 | 11.8% | 90.6% | 85.2 | 5.50% | 32.70% | 346 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.317 | 0.323 | 0.006 | 37.4% | 0.205 | 9.1% | 87.3% | 88.9 | 9.60% | 41.30% | 477 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.309 | 0.271 | -0.038 | 49.1% | 0.219 | 10.6% | 88.9% | 85.7 | 5.10% | 29.30% | 491 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.295 | 0.273 | -0.022 | 43.1% | 0.182 | 7.9% | 85.7% | 86.2 | 8.10% | 32.40% | 395 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.292 | 0.289 | -0.003 | 48.5% | 0.186 | 11.0% | 84.2% | 84.9 | 5.00% | 28.20% | 483 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.280 | 0.263 | -0.017 | 38.5% | 0.172 | 11.1% | 82.2% | 84.1 | 6.70% | 28.00% | 254 |
| Sal Romano | CIN | 0.293 | 0.310 | 0.017 | 50.0% | 0.16 | 9.4% | 87.4% | 86.2 | 5.50% | 36.40% | 165 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.303 | 0.348 | 0.045 | 45.9% | 0.223 | 10.6% | 88.4% | 89.1 | 8.20% | 40.20% | 391 |
| Troy Scribner | ANA | 0.285 | 0.116 | -0.169 | 25.0% | 0.125 | 20.0% | 83.8% | 88.8 | 12.50% | 39.60% | 48 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | 0.293 | 0.344 | 0.051 | 49.5% | 0.227 | 9.1% | 93.4% | 87.5 | 4.00% | 36.00% | 200 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.294 | 0.275 | -0.019 | 55.6% | 0.194 | 6.9% | 88.6% | 85.3 | 6.00% | 35.50% | 301 |
Dylan Bundy has a pretty terrible defense, but generates a lot of popups. His BABIP isn’t really that low, only in conjunction with his defense.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Luke Weaver (2) struck out 10 in his last start. It was the Padres. The cost of business is rising. Let’s not get carried away. However, we know he has some upside, has done a much better job of limiting hard contact this year at both AAA and the majors, is in a high strikeout spot and although the Brewers hit for power in a dangerous park, he seems to be catching them at the right time. There’s still a lot to like here even if we want to be cautious about his K/SwStr and ERA/estimators gaps.
Value Tier Two
Chris Sale (1) is still the top overall pitcher on the board even if expectations need to be adjusted slightly downward. Those expectations still include a 25-30% strikeout rate in a neutral spot tonight.
Value Tier Three
Rich Hill (3) is a bit tricky to evaluate today. His peripherals have been beyond elite for two months, but there’s also been an increase in hard contact in the air. The Diamondbacks have terrible season numbers against LHP, but that’s probably no longer true. It’s not a favorable spot, but he still has a chance to put up some numbers. Oh, and he threw a 99 pitch complete game with 10 strikeouts last time out. He hasn’t pitched in a positive run environment in any of these last 11 starts though. Again, difficult to evaluate.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jake Arrieta (4) has been good, but not as great as his ERA lately. He’s quite expensive as the second highest priced arm on the board, but in a pretty damn good spot against the Pirates.
Zack Godley (5) does get bumped down for a pretty terrible spot hosting the Dodgers tonight, but he’s excelled both peripherally and from a contact standpoint and is certainly still worth considering here for less than $9K, especially on DraftKings ($7.7K).
Dylan Bundy has been striking out all the batters recently and that’s great and useful, but the amount of hard contact he’s been allowing in the air has been ridiculous. In fact, seeing that two of his three starts took place in power suppressing west coast parks and two of three also against strikeout prone Oakland makes me want to pull him from this list altogether, but without a lot of depth on this board, perhaps the confidence boost is what he really needed here. Caution suggested though.
R.A. Dickey has pitched at a near All-Star level for nearly three months now. The Phillies are improved, but that’s mostly one guy. His cost continues to be very reasonable for the recent production. I may even still be ranking him too low.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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