Advanced Stats – Pitching: Wednesday, July 5th
Wednesday night is Alex Wood Night and all the other pitchers are just living in it. While Max Scherzer has been the best pitcher in the National League and Wood can’t match up to his workload, I sincerely believe there’s a strong argument to be made that he’s been the second best pitcher in the senior circuit this year. It’ll be interesting to see how the Dodgers continue to handle his workload in the second half.
The other thing that’s really striking today is the lack of above average offenses. I count just 10 who are above average (via wRC+) in both their home/road and LHP/RHP situation today. Counting park factors, more than one-third of the board can say they are probably in strongly pitcher positive situations today, while only six or seven can say the opposite. That should make for a lot of useful pitchers if not necessarily very strong ones. We’ll see if it actually works out that way.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2 | 3.56 | 5.65 | 55.8% | 0.89 | 2.54 | 3.29 | ARI | 81 | 70 | 80 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.34 | 47.6% | 1.11 | 4.51 | 5.21 | BOS | 103 | 98 | 139 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 7.9 | 4.93 | 5.7 | 33.8% | 0.89 | 4.66 | 5.69 | KAN | 86 | 85 | 124 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 2.4 | 6.14 | 6.37 | 40.2% | 0.96 | 5.29 | 7.05 | PIT | 85 | 89 | 79 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.5 | 4.88 | 4.86 | 38.0% | 0.96 | 4.57 | 6.01 | CHC | 100 | 110 | 86 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 2.6 | 4.27 | 5.17 | 40.4% | 0.98 | 4.39 | 5.08 | SFO | 86 | 83 | 95 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 2.7 | 4.76 | 5.62 | 45.9% | 1.11 | 4.87 | 4.81 | TEX | 100 | 96 | 92 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 4.6 | 4.72 | 5.67 | 48.4% | 0.98 | 4.73 | 6.26 | STL | 99 | 97 | 94 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3.9 | 4.45 | 6.25 | 42.2% | 1.04 | 4.47 | 4.03 | ANA | 83 | 92 | 70 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -6.8 | 3.98 | 5.98 | 45.4% | 0.96 | 3.95 | 4.1 | PHI | 93 | 81 | 72 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -1.5 | 3.38 | 6.24 | 46.0% | 1.01 | 3.43 | 2.44 | WAS | 120 | 112 | 107 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | -0.6 | 4.06 | 5.86 | 56.5% | 1 | 3.51 | 5.35 | HOU | 129 | 119 | 172 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 7.8 | 4.54 | 5.71 | 37.5% | 0.89 | 4.89 | 5.5 | SEA | 109 | 94 | 89 |
| Jayson Aquino | BAL | -2.7 | 5.2 | 6. | 39.4% | 1.02 | 4.24 | MIL | 97 | 94 | 118 | |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | -1.9 | 4.3 | 5.43 | 42.4% | 1 | 4.45 | 4.43 | ATL | 90 | 89 | 45 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4.3 | 3.93 | 6.37 | 43.4% | 0.96 | 4.07 | 5.74 | TAM | 100 | 115 | 104 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 1.1 | 3.78 | 5.4 | 44.0% | 1.39 | 3.22 | 2.49 | CIN | 95 | 100 | 86 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -9.1 | 4.02 | 5.74 | 61.1% | 1.09 | 3.8 | 4.33 | CLE | 99 | 103 | 99 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -2.3 | 4.43 | 6. | 31.9% | 1.01 | 4.5 | 7.52 | NYY | 123 | 119 | 101 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -3.4 | 4.7 | 5.43 | 50.1% | 1.02 | 4.27 | 3.93 | BAL | 89 | 91 | 45 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 5.8 | 3.45 | 5.62 | 47.5% | 1.01 | 3.21 | 3.82 | TOR | 92 | 88 | 52 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -7.8 | 4.04 | 6.23 | 53.9% | 0.98 | 3.67 | 4.3 | MIA | 98 | 93 | 98 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | -0.3 | 5.04 | 5.08 | 49.6% | 0.93 | 5.2 | 6.37 | OAK | 108 | 103 | 71 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | -1.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 37.0% | 1.04 | 6.64 | 5.85 | MIN | 102 | 101 | 99 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 10.3 | 4.38 | 5.67 | 0.475 | 1.39 | 4.07 | 3.98 | COL | 81 | 77 | 58 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -14.2 | 4.15 | 5.92 | 0.534 | 0.93 | 3.82 | 3.8 | CHW | 96 | 88 | 111 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0 | 4.34 | 5.98 | 0.475 | 1.01 | 4.04 | 5.55 | NYM | 116 | 104 | 96 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | -4.5 | 4.14 | 5.84 | 0.469 | 1.09 | 3.92 | 4.83 | SDG | 73 | 84 | 85 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.6 | 5.06 | 6.07 | 0.487 | 0.98 | 4.9 | 5.64 | DET | 115 | 113 | 108 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -7.4 | 4.03 | 5.65 | 0.539 | 0.89 | 3.44 | 3.49 | LOS | 123 | 108 | 133 |
Alex Wood is seventh among those with at least 70 IP with a 23.3 K-BB% and second with a 65.5 GB%. With the same qualifier, his 2.1% Barrels/BBE is best on the board is best and 27.5% 95+ mph EV is third. The best pitcher on the board has the best matchup on the board. Arizona has a 17.9 K-BB% vs LHP and Dodger Stadium is one of the most negative run environments in baseball.
Gerrit Cole struck out seven in his last start. It was his highest total in nearly two months. Unfortunately, the Giants put up seven runs on him, the third time in six starts he’s allowed exactly that many and his SwStr rate was just 7.9%. It hasn’t been above 9% in nearly two months. There was a point where we had to include his name when talking about the best pitchers in the league. Now he’s lucky to be among the most average and 9.3% Barrels/BBE is not helping his failing strikeout rate. He may still be good enough to get past the Phillies though (16.2 K-BB%, 10.4 HR/FB vs RHP).
Jacob deGrom may be the pitcher most likely to challenge Wood for best on the slate, but he’s in a much, much worse spot tonight. He failed to go at least eight innings for the first time in four starts last time out, but that’s okay because he still went seven and struck out 12. It sort of confirmed a theory that he’d been trading off strikeouts for weak contact in order to get deeper into games in recent starts because his SwStr rate has remained high. In fact, a 10.9 SwStr% in his last start was his fourth lowest mark of the year, but he allowed hard contact at a 50% clip. When that wasn’t working, he went back to striking out Phillies. The Nationals have now lost over 30% of their starting lineup, but just keep rolling. This may be a manageable spot, but it is a difficult one.
Jon Gray was supposed to have some type of limitation upon his return from a nearly two month DL stay, but he threw 102 pitches, striking out 10 Diamondbacks in six innings. Through four starts, he hasn’t allowed a single barrel yet with an 82 mph aEV. He’s only pitched at Coors once, but has only pitched in one negative run or power environment on the road. A neutral Cincinnati offense basically equates to maybe the worst matchup on the board at Coors.
Mike Leake has seen is strikeout rate drop over the last month, but his SwStr% has remained respectable. He’s maintained decent enough contact management with the fifth best ground ball rate among qualifiers (56.6%) limiting barrels to just 5% of BBEs. He’s in a favorable enough spot hosting a slightly below average Miami offense.
Scott Feldman has been about a league average arm this year (11.9 K-BB%) with great contact management (83.4 mph aEV, 25.2% 95+ mph EV), which is more than the Red probably could have ever hoped for this year. There’s not a lot of upside as he’s only struck out six or more in six of 17 starts and more than seven just once, but three of those six occurrences have come in his last four starts, going seven innings in each of his last two. The Colorado offense has been so poor (19.0 K-BB% last seven days) that I don’t view this as much worse than a neutral matchup even at Coors.
Trevor Bauer has finally begun running a K% in line with his SwStr% over the last month and that’s certainly not a good thing with his 90.4 mph aEV, 11.2% Barrels/BBE, and 44.9% 95+ mph EV, all board worsts among qualifiers and even non-qualifiers in most cases. However, over the last 30 days, as his strikeout rate has collapsed, his contact authority has improved. It’s not great, but a 55.3 GB% with a 33.3 Hard% can be useful. The real reason to consider him tonight is the Padres though. They have a 26.8 K%, 7.4 Hard-Soft% on the road and 25.8 K%, 5.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP.
Zack Godley appears like he could strike out more batters if he wished it (like deGrom), but seems to trade off some of that potential for weak ground balls (59 GB%, 83.6 mph aEV). It’s been effective if not ideal for daily fantasy. However, he’s struck out 23 of his last 77 batters, going seven innings in each of his last two starts. The one thing he doesn’t appear to be above average at is control (8.1 BB%) and even that is not too bad. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of his 10 starts. He gets a significant park upgrade to Dodger Stadium tonight and he’s probably going to need it against a very difficult offense to navigate. The Dodgers will strike out a bit, but have power and could push his walk rate up a bit.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Ervin Santana (.216 – 83% – 12.8) is not a $9K pitcher. Bring it down another $1K and we might be able to talk.
Jason Vargas (.273 – 85.7% – 6.2) has just a 14.9 K% since the start of May. He hasn’t been bad due to strong contact management skills and transitions to a great park tonight, but costs $9K.
Ariel Miranda (.218 – 81.3% – 12.8) had allowed eight HRs with just nine strikeouts in four starts entering his last one (0 HRs, 4 Ks).
Andrew Cashner (.296 – 74.3% – 6.7) has finally seen his strikeout (11.3%) over-take his walk rate (10.3%). For some reason, Fangraphs insists that’s a 0.9 K-BB%.
Parker Bridwell (.310 – 90.1% – 20) may have some upside in his league average SwStr% so far.
Ben Lively (.282 – 76.9% – 7.1) has struck out two more than Kershaw did last night through six starts.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Luis Perdomo has the third best GB rate (65.4%) among those with at least 70 IP, but his strikeout rate has dropped off recently. Still potentially useful in the right spot, Cleveland would not appear to be that. He does cost little enough on DraftKings that you may still be able to consider him today.
Matt Garza is just really cheap (on DraftKings) against a below average offense. Don’t mistake his placement even this high for quality pitching, though he does have a surprisingly low 84.9 mph aEV. Baltimore has just been really bad (16.4 K-BB% vs RHP, 19.8 K-BB% over the last week).
Daniel Norris can miss bats at an acceptable rate, but still has just an 11.4 K-BB% with too much hard contact. Combined with a lack of strikeouts from the Giants, it’s not an ideal combination.
Jaime Garcia has an 18+ SwStr% in three of his last five starts and a 12+ SwStr% in all of them. That’s mind-blowing and has resulted in just a 14.4 K-BB% in June. There’s no reason to go much further though because I view a matchup with the Astros about equivalent to facing a team like Cincinnati at Coors ironically.
Tanner Roark without exceptional contact management may be less than a league average pitcher.
Edinson Volquez had a 13.5 BB%. He seems to go in stretches of three or four starts in a row with a bunch of walks.
Joe Musgrove is probably better than his ERA. The contact is not that bad and he can miss a few bats. He’s still not someone we want to consider today.
Jayson Aquino has a 0.0 K-BB% in eight major league innings with a double digit SwStr%, but also had just a 10.6 K-BB% in 66.2 AAA innings this year.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 23.4% | 7.7% | Home | 29.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 10.9% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 17.4% | 10.0% | Home | 17.8% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 18.6% | 8.3% | Home | 20.7% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 11.7% | 6.5% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Years | 8.0% | 7.4% | Home | 11.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 4.0% | 8.0% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 22.5% | 13.2% | Road | 20.8% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 20.8% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 21.4% | 7.8% | Home | 23.2% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Doug Fister | Red Sox | L2 Years | 15.6% | 7.7% | Road | 16.4% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 12.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 17.9% | 9.9% | Road | 15.8% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 16.9% | 16.9% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.7% | Home | 19.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 4.9% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.6% | 6.0% | Road | 20.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 27.1% | 6.7% | Road | 21.8% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 35.2% | 3.7% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 19.4% | 8.0% | Home | 20.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 12.2% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 19.0% | 6.1% | Road | 19.0% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| Jayson Aquino | Orioles | L2 Years | 18.8% | 12.5% | Road | 33.3% | 16.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 20.1% | 6.7% | Road | 15.6% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 4.0% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.4% | 6.8% | Home | 22.9% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 25.0% | 8.3% | Home | 25.8% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 3.7% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 17.0% | 7.6% | Road | 18.2% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 15.2% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.7% | 8.2% | Road | 23.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 21.6% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 16.0% | 8.0% | Home | 18.0% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 2.1% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.1% | 5.7% | Home | 27.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 2.9% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.3% | 4.9% | Home | 16.3% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 9.5% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 12.1% | 7.7% | Road | 10.5% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 15.2% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 13.2% | 6.2% | Road | 14.3% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 17.0% | 6.8% | Road | 18.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.0% | Home | 20.2% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 7.7% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.5% | 8.2% | Home | 21.6% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 15.2% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.4% | 9.1% | Home | 22.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 3.9% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 12.0% | 5.9% | Road | 10.8% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 8.2% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.9% | 8.5% | Road | 21.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 7.7% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.1% | 8.1% | LH | 25.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 26.9% | 7.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.9% | 9.0% | RH | 18.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 16.5% | 11.5% |
| Royals | Road | 21.2% | 6.2% | LH | 18.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 16.9% | 5.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.7% | 8.5% | RH | 18.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.1% | 9.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.4% | 10.3% | LH | 21.1% | 12.8% | L7Days | 26.5% | 8.1% |
| Giants | Road | 18.9% | 8.2% | LH | 19.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.6% | 6.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.4% | 9.3% | RH | 24.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 27.0% | 8.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.5% | 9.8% | RH | 21.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.6% | 11.1% |
| Angels | Road | 21.4% | 8.9% | RH | 20.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.8% | 6.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.7% | 8.6% | RH | 23.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 27.3% | 7.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.1% | 9.5% | RH | 19.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 19.2% | 12.8% |
| Astros | Road | 17.9% | 9.0% | LH | 17.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 14.2% | 7.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.0% | 9.5% | LH | 18.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 19.5% | 6.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.2% | 8.5% | LH | 26.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 26.0% | 8.5% |
| Braves | Home | 19.3% | 7.5% | RH | 19.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 22.8% | 5.9% |
| Rays | Road | 25.9% | 8.9% | RH | 24.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.8% | 7.7% |
| Reds | Road | 19.6% | 7.4% | RH | 20.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.7% | 11.2% |
| Indians | Home | 19.0% | 9.6% | RH | 19.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.9% | 10.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.0% | 10.5% | RH | 22.3% | 9.8% | L7Days | 21.9% | 13.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.7% | 6.4% | RH | 22.9% | 6.5% | L7Days | 24.3% | 4.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.1% | 8.7% | RH | 20.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 24.7% | 7.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.8% | 6.2% | RH | 20.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 25.0% | 9.3% | RH | 25.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 32.6% | 12.2% |
| Twins | Home | 21.4% | 10.6% | RH | 22.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.9% | 9.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.7% | 7.1% | RH | 22.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 24.4% | 5.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.7% | 5.9% | RH | 22.5% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.7% |
| Mets | Road | 20.0% | 9.2% | RH | 19.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.8% |
| Padres | Road | 26.8% | 7.5% | RH | 25.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 28.8% | 8.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.8% | 8.8% | LH | 20.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.6% | 7.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.4% | 10.7% | RH | 23.0% | 10.8% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.8% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.6% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 2017 | 23.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | Home | 25.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 0.0% | 3.9% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.2% | 11.1% | 15.4% | 2017 | 29.0% | 6.7% | 9.6% | Home | 32.6% | 13.0% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | -16.6% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.5% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 2017 | 28.3% | 12.8% | 6.5% | Home | 31.5% | 12.6% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 13.3% | -1.6% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.6% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 2017 | 32.6% | 7.1% | 11.9% | Home | 26.2% | 14.3% | -7.1% | L14 Days | 34.1% | 4.8% | 20.5% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 32.9% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 2017 | 35.7% | 13.5% | 18.2% | Road | 32.5% | 8.1% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 16.7% | 38.5% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 34.7% | 11.7% | 18.5% | 2017 | 40.2% | 10.3% | 23.1% | Home | 38.5% | 16.3% | 23.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 20.0% | 9.4% |
| Doug Fister | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.6% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 2017 | 26.7% | 9.1% | 3.4% | Road | 32.8% | 14.8% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 9.1% | 3.4% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.7% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 2017 | 35.4% | 10.4% | 15.6% | Road | 34.7% | 16.2% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 44.7% | 6.3% | 25.5% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.3% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 2017 | 26.9% | 12.8% | 5.8% | Home | 28.4% | 12.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 37.3% | 15.4% | 18.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.7% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 2017 | 33.8% | 18.2% | 11.4% | Road | 31.7% | 14.0% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 31.3% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 2017 | 35.6% | 16.7% | 14.2% | Road | 34.8% | 15.5% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 11.1% | 21.2% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 29.3% | 15.5% | 8.1% | 2017 | 28.1% | 15.6% | 5.6% | Home | 30.7% | 23.7% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 26.7% | 35.3% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 28.2% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 2017 | 27.5% | 6.2% | 8.8% | Road | 25.9% | 7.4% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 13.3% | 9.1% |
| Jayson Aquino | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.3% | 20.0% | -9.1% | 2017 | 28.6% | 25.0% | -10.7% | Road | 55.6% | 50.0% | 44.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 33.9% | 15.9% | 16.1% | 2017 | 33.3% | 17.5% | 15.7% | Road | 36.0% | 21.6% | 20.8% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 50.0% | 26.3% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 33.4% | 15.5% | 17.2% | 2017 | 37.1% | 22.4% | 22.1% | Home | 34.2% | 15.1% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 25.0% | 10.0% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.4% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 2017 | 26.4% | 15.4% | 3.8% | Home | 27.5% | 14.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.3% | 21.2% | 16.1% | 2017 | 31.8% | 20.0% | 13.6% | Road | 33.2% | 25.7% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 0.0% | 17.3% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 2017 | 30.0% | 11.7% | 11.6% | Road | 30.9% | 9.9% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 5.0% | -9.7% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.9% | 11.5% | 17.7% | 2017 | 33.5% | 11.6% | 17.9% | Home | 38.4% | 16.2% | 23.7% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 11.1% | -7.7% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.5% | 18.6% | 13.0% | 2017 | 30.5% | 20.5% | 10.4% | Home | 33.8% | 20.9% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 31.5% | 18.8% | 3.7% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.3% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 2017 | 29.0% | 12.2% | 12.0% | Home | 27.1% | 15.9% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% | 23.2% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.7% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 2017 | 27.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | Road | 28.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 30.8% | -15.6% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 41.2% | 22.0% | 29.4% | 2017 | 39.6% | 20.0% | 27.5% | Road | 39.0% | 17.4% | 21.9% | L14 Days | 40.7% | 17.9% | 28.8% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 27.0% | 13.2% | 6.7% | 2017 | 30.4% | 14.3% | 9.1% | Road | 27.7% | 16.3% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 9.1% | 7.9% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 31.1% | 15.6% | 14.9% | 2017 | 30.6% | 15.2% | 14.3% | Home | 30.7% | 12.9% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 18.2% | 5.5% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.5% | 11.5% | 6.2% | 2017 | 29.7% | 13.0% | 14.8% | Home | 27.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% | 10.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 33.4% | 13.9% | 15.3% | 2017 | 37.6% | 17.5% | 23.3% | Home | 34.3% | 17.4% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 12.5% | 16.2% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 29.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 2017 | 29.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | Road | 32.3% | 14.6% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 7.1% | -23.0% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 31.0% | 15.6% | 13.2% | 2017 | 29.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% | Road | 23.1% | 11.6% | -4.3% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 8.3% | 12.9% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.6% | 13.3% | 11.2% | LH | 32.3% | 13.0% | 16.4% | L7Days | 40.3% | 10.2% | 22.9% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.1% | 11.8% | 13.5% | RH | 35.5% | 11.0% | 17.8% | L7Days | 29.7% | 9.6% | 10.9% |
| Royals | Road | 32.0% | 15.1% | 12.2% | LH | 30.5% | 11.2% | 11.1% | L7Days | 29.9% | 15.6% | 7.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.5% | 12.1% | 9.3% | RH | 30.4% | 10.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 35.4% | 10.8% | 13.1% |
| Cubs | Home | 30.3% | 16.3% | 13.0% | LH | 28.7% | 18.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 25.9% | 19.0% | 7.7% |
| Giants | Road | 30.5% | 11.4% | 9.6% | LH | 27.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 29.4% | 12.9% | 7.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 35.0% | 17.1% | 15.8% | RH | 33.5% | 17.4% | 13.3% | L7Days | 29.1% | 20.3% | 5.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.5% | 11.4% | 13.1% | RH | 32.2% | 13.6% | 13.2% | L7Days | 44.1% | 10.5% | 29.8% |
| Angels | Road | 32.9% | 11.2% | 13.7% | RH | 30.6% | 13.1% | 11.3% | L7Days | 33.3% | 11.8% | 15.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.8% | 13.5% | 10.5% | RH | 30.3% | 10.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 35.9% | 12.5% | 15.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.4% | 14.9% | 15.1% | RH | 31.7% | 14.5% | 14.7% | L7Days | 33.5% | 13.0% | 15.6% |
| Astros | Road | 33.6% | 15.3% | 15.6% | LH | 28.6% | 15.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 39.3% | 15.1% | 19.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.0% | 12.3% | 9.5% | LH | 29.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.3% | 13.8% | 9.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.6% | 19.9% | 17.8% | LH | 36.0% | 16.6% | 15.2% | L7Days | 41.3% | 29.0% | 26.9% |
| Braves | Home | 29.1% | 11.3% | 9.3% | RH | 30.8% | 11.2% | 11.7% | L7Days | 27.5% | 4.3% | 7.2% |
| Rays | Road | 34.4% | 17.5% | 15.2% | RH | 36.9% | 18.8% | 19.5% | L7Days | 28.8% | 16.0% | 6.7% |
| Reds | Road | 29.6% | 13.9% | 10.2% | RH | 29.4% | 14.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 25.7% | 16.9% | 4.6% |
| Indians | Home | 30.4% | 11.8% | 12.9% | RH | 33.6% | 11.9% | 17.0% | L7Days | 34.4% | 8.2% | 10.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 31.1% | 20.0% | 9.9% | RH | 32.1% | 17.1% | 13.1% | L7Days | 31.3% | 9.7% | 14.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.5% | 13.1% | 15.3% | RH | 30.9% | 15.1% | 10.1% | L7Days | 30.2% | 10.2% | 8.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.4% | 14.5% | 13.5% | RH | 31.3% | 14.3% | 11.1% | L7Days | 30.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.5% | 13.7% | 9.2% | RH | 31.0% | 14.1% | 11.1% | L7Days | 27.5% | 10.4% | 8.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 31.4% | 15.5% | 16.5% | RH | 34.3% | 15.1% | 17.6% | L7Days | 28.9% | 16.2% | 11.4% |
| Twins | Home | 34.2% | 12.4% | 17.9% | RH | 33.1% | 13.7% | 16.6% | L7Days | 26.4% | 7.9% | 4.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 30.5% | 15.1% | 10.6% | RH | 29.1% | 12.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 29.4% | 9.4% | 5.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 32.0% | 14.3% | 14.9% | RH | 30.7% | 13.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 24.7% | 14.5% | 1.6% |
| Mets | Road | 37.3% | 16.2% | 19.8% | RH | 35.6% | 13.3% | 18.4% | L7Days | 34.1% | 10.9% | 18.7% |
| Padres | Road | 29.8% | 14.9% | 7.4% | RH | 28.5% | 14.4% | 5.9% | L7Days | 28.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 47.5% | 14.1% | 34.0% | LH | 42.0% | 17.1% | 25.7% | L7Days | 39.4% | 15.4% | 26.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.1% | 17.9% | 21.0% | RH | 34.6% | 15.6% | 19.2% | L7Days | 33.1% | 22.0% | 13.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 30.2% | 13.1% | 2.31 | 28.1% | 15.0% | 1.87 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 11.3% | 6.0% | 1.88 | 15.1% | 6.7% | 2.25 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 18.3% | 9.5% | 1.93 | 14.0% | 9.2% | 1.52 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 8.0% | 6.3% | 1.27 | 9.6% | 6.5% | 1.48 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.09 | 25.0% | 10.2% | 2.45 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 21.0% | 9.5% | 2.21 | 24.8% | 10.8% | 2.30 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 22.9% | 8.8% | 2.60 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 2.60 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.26 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 1.95 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 19.1% | 9.1% | 2.10 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 1.88 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 20.0% | 8.4% | 2.38 | 19.2% | 6.4% | 3.00 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 29.0% | 14.3% | 2.03 | 23.7% | 12.2% | 1.94 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 17.6% | 11.8% | 1.49 | 22.0% | 16.6% | 1.33 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 18.3% | 10.4% | 1.76 | 15.3% | 9.1% | 1.68 |
| Jayson Aquino | BAL | 15.0% | 10.6% | 1.42 | |||
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 18.9% | 10.8% | 1.75 | 19.4% | 11.1% | 1.75 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 20.5% | 9.9% | 2.07 | 13.9% | 6.9% | 2.01 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 23.8% | 9.6% | 2.48 | 37.0% | 15.7% | 2.36 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.01 | 16.0% | 8.6% | 1.86 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.13 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 2.01 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 17.0% | 8.7% | 1.95 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 1.85 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 23.2% | 12.4% | 1.87 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 1.96 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 17.1% | 8.4% | 2.04 | 14.7% | 8.8% | 1.67 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 14.5% | 6.4% | 2.27 | 15.4% | 6.8% | 2.26 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 12.3% | 9.7% | 1.27 | 11.1% | 9.4% | 1.18 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 19.8% | 8.1% | 2.44 | 21.9% | 7.9% | 2.77 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 22.9% | 11.6% | 1.97 | 24.1% | 12.9% | 1.87 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 18.5% | 9.3% | 1.99 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 1.69 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 25.7% | 8.5% | 3.02 | 17.7% | 7.6% | 2.33 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 11.3% | 6.8% | 1.66 | 13.7% | 8.3% | 1.65 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 23.9% | 13.9% | 1.72 | 26.7% | 14.4% | 1.85 |
Gerrit Cole with seven strikeouts in his last start appears to be a fluke.
Trevor Bauer had this coming (last 30 days) with perhaps some further decline in his season rate in store.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 1.83 | 2.78 | 0.95 | 2.58 | 0.75 | 2.12 | 0.29 | 2.50 | 0.67 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 2.76 | 0.66 | 2.37 | 0.27 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 3.87 | 5.72 | 1.85 | 5.39 | 1.52 | 4.47 | 0.6 | 6.08 | 2.21 | 5.63 | 4.78 | -0.85 | 4.6 | -1.03 | 2.71 | -2.92 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 3.82 | 5.02 | 1.2 | 5.31 | 1.49 | 5.14 | 1.32 | 4.90 | 1.08 | 3.32 | 5.71 | 2.39 | 5.87 | 2.55 | 5.58 | 2.26 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 3.72 | 6.13 | 2.41 | 6.14 | 2.42 | 4.91 | 1.19 | 7.06 | 3.34 | 4.26 | 5.87 | 1.61 | 5.97 | 1.71 | 4.92 | 0.66 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 5.36 | 5.55 | 0.19 | 5.33 | -0.03 | 5.3 | -0.06 | 5.31 | -0.05 | 10.8 | 6.01 | -4.79 | 5.88 | -4.92 | 6.35 | -4.45 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 5 | 4.66 | -0.34 | 4.78 | -0.22 | 4.26 | -0.74 | 4.89 | -0.11 | 6.08 | 4.34 | -1.74 | 4.68 | -1.4 | 4.65 | -1.43 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 4.91 | 4.81 | -0.1 | 4.84 | -0.07 | 4.24 | -0.67 | 2.16 | -2.75 | 4.91 | 4.81 | -0.1 | 4.84 | -0.07 | 4.24 | -0.67 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 3.97 | 5.1 | 1.13 | 4.72 | 0.75 | 4.35 | 0.38 | 3.60 | -0.37 | 4.39 | 5.64 | 1.25 | 5.36 | 0.97 | 4.54 | 0.15 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3.07 | 4.75 | 1.68 | 4.86 | 1.79 | 4.72 | 1.65 | 3.50 | 0.43 | 4.75 | 4.1 | -0.65 | 4.44 | -0.31 | 4.66 | -0.09 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 4.51 | 4.22 | -0.29 | 3.98 | -0.53 | 4.55 | 0.04 | 4.04 | -0.47 | 5.1 | 4.37 | -0.73 | 3.84 | -1.26 | 3.78 | -1.32 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.55 | 3.59 | 0.04 | 3.31 | -0.24 | 3.62 | 0.07 | 2.69 | -0.86 | 2.75 | 3.81 | 1.06 | 3.5 | 0.75 | 3.51 | 0.76 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 4.35 | 4.69 | 0.34 | 4.36 | 0.01 | 4.57 | 0.22 | 5.35 | 1.00 | 6.75 | 4.09 | -2.66 | 3.8 | -2.95 | 4.78 | -1.97 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 2.22 | 4.62 | 2.4 | 4.72 | 2.5 | 3.48 | 1.26 | 3.81 | 1.59 | 2.53 | 5.02 | 2.49 | 5.13 | 2.6 | 3.96 | 1.43 |
| Jayson Aquino | BAL | 9 | 6.08 | -2.92 | 6.57 | -2.43 | 8.77 | -0.23 | 6.40 | -2.60 | |||||||
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 6.01 | 4.59 | -1.42 | 4.62 | -1.39 | 5.21 | -0.8 | 7.69 | 1.68 | 10.29 | 4.42 | -5.87 | 4.52 | -5.77 | 7 | -3.29 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 5.24 | 4.43 | -0.81 | 4.58 | -0.66 | 5.89 | 0.65 | 6.56 | 1.32 | 6.04 | 5.31 | -0.73 | 5.67 | -0.37 | 7.81 | 1.77 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 3.93 | 4.13 | 0.2 | 3.65 | -0.28 | 3.8 | -0.13 | 3.35 | -0.58 | 3 | 2.49 | -0.51 | 2.69 | -0.31 | 2.48 | -0.52 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 4.71 | 3.99 | -0.72 | 3.89 | -0.82 | 4.36 | -0.35 | 4.82 | 0.11 | 4.5 | 4.85 | 0.35 | 4.29 | -0.21 | 5.25 | 0.75 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 4.86 | 4.14 | -0.72 | 4.45 | -0.41 | 4.11 | -0.75 | 6.97 | 2.11 | 7.88 | 5.61 | -2.27 | 5.97 | -1.91 | 5.4 | -2.48 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 4.36 | 4.6 | 0.24 | 4.36 | 0 | 4.07 | -0.29 | 4.48 | 0.12 | 5.48 | 4.28 | -1.2 | 3.96 | -1.52 | 3.76 | -1.72 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 4.05 | 3.65 | -0.4 | 3.49 | -0.56 | 4.27 | 0.22 | 3.19 | -0.86 | 4.71 | 3.78 | -0.93 | 3.49 | -1.22 | 3.81 | -0.9 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 2.97 | 4.05 | 1.08 | 3.77 | 0.8 | 3.63 | 0.66 | 3.88 | 0.91 | 3.77 | 4.18 | 0.41 | 3.77 | 0 | 3.5 | -0.27 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 4.13 | 5.35 | 1.22 | 5.34 | 1.21 | 5.2 | 1.07 | 4.65 | 0.52 | 4.56 | 5.65 | 1.09 | 5.86 | 1.3 | 5.87 | 1.31 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 3.95 | 5.31 | 1.36 | 5.39 | 1.44 | 6.44 | 2.49 | 6.46 | 2.51 | 3.8 | 5.62 | 1.82 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 6.24 | 2.44 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 3.78 | 4.43 | 0.65 | 4.08 | 0.3 | 4.14 | 0.36 | 4.28 | 0.50 | 2.25 | 3.8 | 1.55 | 3.48 | 1.23 | 3.37 | 1.12 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 4.09 | 3.78 | -0.31 | 3.37 | -0.72 | 3.49 | -0.6 | 2.96 | -1.13 | 3.52 | 3.82 | 0.3 | 3.33 | -0.19 | 2.94 | -0.58 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 5.27 | 4.68 | -0.59 | 4.48 | -0.79 | 4.4 | -0.87 | 5.42 | 0.15 | 8.31 | 5.18 | -3.13 | 5 | -3.31 | 5.75 | -2.56 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 5.24 | 3.9 | -1.34 | 3.71 | -1.53 | 4.16 | -1.08 | 4.08 | -1.16 | 3.82 | 4.85 | 1.03 | 4.64 | 0.82 | 4.29 | 0.47 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 4.6 | 5.17 | 0.57 | 4.89 | 0.29 | 4.14 | -0.46 | 6.47 | 1.87 | 7.48 | 5.06 | -2.42 | 5.11 | -2.37 | 4.49 | -2.99 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 2.67 | 3.76 | 1.09 | 3.44 | 0.77 | 3.19 | 0.52 | 2.87 | 0.20 | 3.08 | 3.68 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 0.62 | 3.34 | 0.26 |
Alex Wood has a .257 BABIP and 79.2 LOB%, but has a strong defense and has been a great contact manager. The 5.9 HR/FB is what we should probably be most skeptical of right now. He may not be a true talent sub-two ERA arm, but he might be pitching better than his estimators suggest.
Mike Leake has a .263 BABIP that’s nearly 30 points below his career rate with a pretty poor defense behind him.
Trevor Bauer has a .325 BABIP and 17.5 HR/FB. His contact management has been terrible even if his BABIP profile looks fine. As the strikeout rate drops, it could get even worse, but at least contact authority seems to have improved a bit recently.
Zack Godley has a .236 BABIP that will regress, but considering the amount of weak grounders he generates he may be able to stay a bit ahead of estimators, which may improve as well if he continues generating strikeouts as he has over his last few starts.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.280 | 0.257 | -0.023 | 65.5% | 0.153 | 11.8% | 83.3% | 85.6 | 2.10% | 1.30% | 142 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.292 | 0.296 | 0.004 | 49.8% | 0.198 | 4.0% | 93.5% | 85.9 | 3.50% | 2.70% | 231 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.279 | 0.218 | -0.061 | 35.3% | 0.154 | 12.8% | 85.9% | 86.5 | 6.30% | 4.50% | 252 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 0.299 | 0.282 | -0.017 | 40.2% | 0.174 | 14.3% | 91.5% | 86.4 | 4.20% | 3.70% | 95 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.292 | 0.294 | 0.002 | 40.6% | 0.217 | 15.4% | 83.8% | 87 | 4.60% | 3.20% | 130 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.307 | 0.355 | 0.048 | 39.9% | 0.21 | 6.2% | 88.0% | 88.6 | 6.80% | 4.60% | 220 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 0.307 | 0.345 | 0.038 | 41.4% | 0.207 | 9.1% | 87.5% | ||||
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 0.291 | 0.272 | -0.019 | 45.7% | 0.214 | 7.8% | 86.4% | 87 | 6.10% | 4.00% | 212 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.294 | 0.216 | -0.078 | 43.1% | 0.151 | 12.0% | 89.5% | 85.3 | 3.90% | 2.80% | 283 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.304 | 0.294 | -0.01 | 46.4% | 0.211 | 7.1% | 87.4% | 86.9 | 9.30% | 6.80% | 258 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.317 | 0.296 | -0.021 | 46.0% | 0.221 | 11.9% | 78.6% | 87.3 | 6.10% | 3.70% | 212 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.287 | 0.275 | -0.012 | 55.0% | 0.175 | 5.2% | 86.1% | 85.5 | 4.80% | 3.60% | 250 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.301 | 0.273 | -0.028 | 37.7% | 0.193 | 10.1% | 83.2% | 86.2 | 3.10% | 2.30% | 260 |
| Jayson Aquino | BAL | 0.313 | 0.280 | -0.033 | 46.4% | 0.107 | 41.7% | 82.1% | ||||
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 0.295 | 0.335 | 0.04 | 41.5% | 0.208 | 8.8% | 86.5% | 86.9 | 7.00% | 5.00% | 201 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.287 | 0.271 | -0.016 | 43.0% | 0.186 | 8.4% | 86.6% | 86.9 | 7.40% | 5.20% | 230 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 0.294 | 0.314 | 0.02 | 51.9% | 0.231 | 7.7% | 91.8% | 82 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 37 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.300 | 0.326 | 0.026 | 65.4% | 0.154 | 8.9% | 90.8% | 86.9 | 4.60% | 3.30% | 173 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.305 | 0.327 | 0.022 | 32.5% | 0.208 | 11.7% | 80.4% | 88.1 | 8.40% | 5.50% | 225 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.300 | 0.294 | -0.006 | 46.3% | 0.2 | 13.0% | 89.0% | 84.9 | 5.60% | 4.30% | 178 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.288 | 0.294 | 0.006 | 51.6% | 0.182 | 7.2% | 87.5% | 86.2 | 6.50% | 4.40% | 199 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.295 | 0.263 | -0.032 | 56.6% | 0.203 | 2.7% | 89.7% | 87.6 | 5.00% | 3.80% | 301 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.283 | 0.260 | -0.023 | 48.6% | 0.173 | 8.5% | 89.3% | 86.6 | 7.30% | 5.40% | 179 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 0.286 | 0.310 | 0.024 | 38.9% | 0.222 | 11.4% | 87.9% | 91.6 | 9.50% | 7.80% | 42 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.291 | 0.293 | 0.002 | 45.3% | 0.268 | 10.4% | 87.4% | 83.4 | 5.50% | 3.90% | 254 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.297 | 0.297 | 0 | 55.9% | 0.216 | 4.3% | 86.5% | 86 | 5.20% | 3.60% | 192 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.294 | 0.323 | 0.029 | 46.3% | 0.226 | 6.5% | 86.2% | 86.7 | 5.60% | 4.00% | 285 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.303 | 0.325 | 0.022 | 47.9% | 0.188 | 10.0% | 88.2% | 90.4 | 11.20% | 7.10% | 187 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.317 | 0.299 | -0.018 | 47.3% | 0.202 | 7.4% | 88.7% | 84.9 | 5.00% | 4.20% | 259 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.290 | 0.236 | -0.054 | 59.0% | 0.167 | 7.9% | 87.2% | 83.6 | 4.40% | 3.10% | 136 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Alex Wood (1) may be the top pitcher on the board, but he almost certainly is in the top spot. The Diamondbacks have been atrocious against LHP this season, normally a strength of theirs in the past. Perhaps that changes with Pollock back though.
Value Tier Two
Just keep in mind today that the arms below are far separated from Wood today.
Jon Gray returned with a vengeance in his first start back from the DL and may have the toughest matchup on the board hosting the Reds today, but should be able to cover an average or lower price tag.
Zack Godley (3) has pitched like an All-Star. He misses bats and the ones he doesn’t miss make weak contact on the ground more often than not. The issue here is a difficult matchup, but at least he gets a major park upgrade to deal with the Dodgers.
Value Tier Three
Jacob deGrom (2) may have deserved to have been an All-Star. He’s gone four straight starts with at least seven innings and no more than one run after getting shelled in Texas and by Milwaukee. His 20.2 K-BB% is 12th among qualifiers, though his 8.8 BB% is highest among the 20+ group. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the board though and this Washington crew is tough.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Scott Feldman has been about a league average pitcher and perhaps a bit better with contact management so far. Coors may remove him from the minds of most players, but at this low a cost, that might be a miscalculation considering the failings of the Colorado offense.
Gerrit Cole appears to be a matchup play. He costs more than $8K and has no right to do so at this point in a reasonable matchup. The Phillies are much better than reasonable.
Trevor Bauer is probably not worth it on his own or on single pitcher sites, as with most arms in this tier, but is in a very favorable spot hosting the Padres.
Mike Leake is probably not ideal, but could be good enough in a complimentary role at a low cost on DraftKings in a decent spot at home against the Marlins. He should probably not be considered at a higher cost on FanDuel or on any single pitcher site, but if you need two pitchers and want to go high cost with one, it’s probably okay to take a Leake.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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