FREE: CheeseIsGood's Million Dollar Musings - MLB DFS Strategy: Monday, May 2nd
Happy Monday, and Happy May! We’re almost a month into this weird season, and with a small slate on tap tonight, I figured it would be a good time to step back and take a look at some overall numbers. If you want to just skip down to the analysis for this 6-game slate, no worries, the Cliff Notes are this – home runs are down because the ball is dead.
We sort of all know just from watching and playing DFS that scoring is down, but let’s see exactly what that means so far. I’m going to look at data from the last four full seasons (excluding 2020), and just compare the first month of the season, where we will have similar weather conditions to blame things on.
April 2017 – 21.6% K, 8.7% BB, .160 ISO, 12.8% HR/FB% (1 HR every 29 AB)
April 2018 – 22.7% K, 9% BB, .156 ISO, 11.9% HR/FB (1 HR every 31.4 AB)
April 2019 – 23.3% K, 9.2% BB, .176 ISO, 14.4% HR/FB (1 HR every 25.8 AB)
April 2021 – 24.4% K, 8.8% BB, .157 ISO, 13.3% HR/FB (1 HR every 28.8 AB)
April 2022 – 23% K, 8.9% BB, .137 ISO, 10.1% HR/FB (1 HR every 36.3 AB)
OK, step one – Strikeouts and walks are not the problem. Step two – Power, Ugh.
What I was hoping to see was that we were just going to be back to something similar to the ball used in 2017-2018. If you recall, 2019 was when the serious ‘juiced ball’ showed up. I can live without that nonsensical of a happy fun ball, but we did not have a problem prior to that. We have a problem now.
So far this season, we’ve heard players complaining that the balls are not just ‘deadened’, but also inconsistent, adding another layer to this. All of the 2022 scoring drought is not necessarily 100% due to the balls, as we have added in expanded bullpens, more humidors and the unknown from the shortened spring, but it’s enough data to be able to say these are some dead baseballs. A quick side note here, rosters are being cut back from 28 to 26 players starting this week, with a maximum of 14 pitchers on a roster. For the first month, teams have had up to 16 pitchers, adding depth to the bullpens. I don’t expect a huge change, but we could see a few more relievers being hung out to dry here and there.
If you want more uncertainty (and who doesn’t!), we know that MLB used multiple different balls in 2021, and there is no guarantee that they don’t start mixing up the ball again at some point, if they haven’t already. But for now, all we have to go off of is this April data that shows a clear, undeniable drop in home runs.
So, what do we do about this? I will tell you right away that I do not have any in depth data to show the best way to attack this new reality, but I do have opinions on it. I am presenting this completely as my own opinion, and to be transparent about how I’m building DFS lineups at this point. However, you are under no obligation to agree with me, or follow my style of play. If you find a different way to attack this problem, have at it!
1) Focus on batters who hit the ball so hard and so far that it doesn’t matter what ball they are using. This is nothing new, the best power hitters are the ones who hit the ball the hardest and in the air. We are still going to lose home runs from Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but not as many as we’re going to lose from Andrew Benintendi, Trent Grisham and Robbie Grossman. This is common sense, but I was much more willing to consider playing guys like Grossman with a 2019-2021 baseball, where he could still have a 23-HR season.
2) Ballparks matter a little more for power. This was shown in one night when Anthony Rizzo hit 3 HR that would have made it out of no other ballparks. This is another situation where it’s not anything new, we’ve always preferred power bats in better ballparks, but it gets taken to a new level with the dead baseball. If I’m chasing home runs, I will side as much as possible with batters in parks that are power friendly.
3) Full stacking becomes more of a priority. I’ve always been someone who stacks less militantly than others, as the highest upside lineup is the lineup that has the most home runs in it. However, the fewer home runs we have overall, the less likely that you can expect to pick out enough of them to be relevant. If there are fewer home runs, winning DFS scores become lower, and we have clearly seen that this season. If DFS winning scores are lower, every run and RBI matters more. In the Happy Fun Ball Era, I didn’t so much care if I had a couple extra walks and runs in a stack, where I could instead play 2-3 bats all with obvious home run upside, where just one swing of the bat beats the worst 3 players in a stack. But with fewer and fewer players meeting that criteria for home run hunting, and most of those players priced up, I’m much more interested in compiling those few extra runs and RBI.
That’s it for now. The ideal lineup build for me at this point is going to be a cheap-ish full stack that can pile up hits and runs, and then expensive one-off power bats that are not going to be stifled by the slippery rock balls of 2022.
We will be keeping an eye on this, knowing that things can change in a hurry, and even if the balls remain, we will still see power increase as the weather warms up. It just won’t increase to the same levels as previous seasons unless there is a change.
Monday Night Slate
MONDAY NIGHT PITCHING
You can toss most anyone in the pool tonight, but I have a primary group of these six pitchers:
Pablo Lopez vs Diamondbacks
Chris Bassitt vs Braves
Max Fried at Mets
Zac Gallen at Marlins
Chris Paddack at Orioles
Drew Rasmussen at A’s
We’re 3-4 starts into the season, and starting to get to a point where the numbers mean something. What I notice most about this group is that the numbers they’ve put up this season are very close to what we would expect.
Pablo Lopez vs Diamondbacks – 27.1% K, 4.7% BB, 2.76 SIERA
Chris Bassitt vs Braves – 28% K, 7.5% BB, 3.07 SIERA
Max Fried at Mets – 22.3% K, 1.1% BB, 2.63 SIERA
Zac Gallen at Marlins – 25% K, 7.1% BB, 3.45 SIERA
Chris Paddack at Orioles – 21.7% K, 1.7% BB, 2.88 SIERA
Drew Rasmussen at A’s – 24.3% K, 5.4% BB, 3.22 SIERA
Decent strikeout numbers, but nothing outstanding, with solid control across the board. We’re still going to get pitch-counted a bit in certain places, but all these guys can go at least six innings if pitching well. From the skill sets alone, there is not much reason to separate these pitchers too far, let’s see if we get any help from the matchups. These are tonight’s projected lineups using 2021-2022 data:
Diamondbacks vs RHP (Lopez) – 24% K, 10.3% BB, .166 ISO, .309 wOBA
Braves vs RHP (Bassitt) – 22.9% K, 9.1% BB, .246 ISO, .361 wOBA
Mets vs LHP (Fried) – 21.4% K, 10.8% BB, .162 ISO, .329 wOBA
Marlins vs RHP (Gallen) – 22.4% K, 8.5% BB, .180 ISO, .325 wOBA
Orioles vs RHP (Paddack) – 24.5% K, 7.4% BB, .168 ISO, .312 wOBA
A’s vs RHP (Rasmussen) – 24.2% K, 7.2% BB, .162 ISO, .300 wOBA
It ends up looking about like you’d expect. The Orioles and A’s are the best matchups here, while the Braves and Mets are the toughest. Of course, the two pitchers I’m least confident in overall are Paddack and Rasmussen, and those are the two with the preferred matchups. With Rasmussen, it’s mostly a workload issue, although he threw 84 pitches last week in a six-inning gem, and another 85-ish pitches is plenty on this slate. With Paddack, it’s simply that he’s the low man on the strikeout pole with back-to-back seasons at a below average 21%. But add in this elite control and the matchup, and I do end up liking him tonight.
The problem I’m running into here is that I really don’t see any logical reason to put any gap between any of these six pitchers. Bassitt and Fried are just good at their jobs, pitching in a good ballpark and fairly priced, although not cheap enough to stand out. When I bring salaries into the mix on DK, the guy here that does start to stand out to me is Zac Gallen. Over the long term, he is the highest strikeout pitcher on this slate, and he was a start behind everyone else to open the season. He’s ramped up from 66 to 79 to 90 pitches and his velocity is up at a career high. I like him every bit as much as Bassitt/Fried/Lopez in terms of raw points, so add in the discount, and he’s going to be my SP1 tonight.
Speaking of Pablo Lopez, he has looked outstanding to open the season, with just one run allowed in 23 innings and strikeouts in line with 2021. I’m not sure that he’s better than Bassitt/Fried, but I do prefer his matchup, so this Marlins-D’Backs game is going to be my go-to for pitchers.
On FD, we have to go back to those matchups for Drew Rasmussen and Chris Paddack. They are both priced well below the top four, and while I have a slight preference for Lopez or Gallen (and Bassitt and Fried), it’s so close that I am completely happy just taking these discounted pitchers if I need the salary for bats.
CHEAP NONSENSE
Tyler Wells vs Twins
Daulton Jefferies vs Rays
Jake Odorizzi vs Mariners
Ross Stripling vs Yankees
There is a clear drop in skills from the top six down to this group. No one in this tier is above 20% strikeouts and we’re looking at some scary low numbers like 13% K for Odorizzi and 15.2% K for Jefferies. Ross Stripling is the only one here who is kind of interesting to me based on some past upside and a seven-strikeout game last week against Boston. From 2017-2019, Stripling was a 24-27% K pitcher with good control, but since then has fallen off to this 19% range. Playing him tonight would be to buy into something changing in his last start that can bring him back to that previous range. It’s certainly possible, but I’m nowhere near buying it until we see it more. I’ll just say that at $5,800 on DK, I won’t X him out if I happen to land on a build that requires that salary in a large-field tournament.
The only pitcher cheaper than Stripling on DK is Tyler Wells, and while he is similarly ‘potentially fine-ish’, there is more downside than upside here. I say that due to the fact that Baltimore has said he will not be stretched out any further than the 72 pitches he threw last start. They are going to keep him as a 4-5 inning starter, which lowers his already low upside.
With the Gallen/Paddack salaries on DK and the Rasmussen/Paddack salaries on FD, I think we’re just being goofy for no reason to mess around with the cheap nonsense tonight.
PITCHING CLIFF NOTES
I can put a big gap between my top six pitchers and everybody else, but I can’t put any kind of gap at all between those top six. If salary is no issue at all, I’ll take Pablo Lopez as my SP1, with Chris Bassitt close behind, followed by Zac Gallen and Max Fried. When I factor salary in, Gallen is my first preference on DK. Drew Rasmussen and Chris Paddack are also considerably cheaper than the top three, with similar projections and upside, so a pairing of Gallen with one of those two is acceptable as my primary duo. I will lean to Rasmussen ahead of Paddack if I have the option.
On FD, I’m willing to build my offense first, and then see if I can afford something from Gallen up to Lopez, and if I can’t, I’m completely content landing on Drew Rasmussen or Chris Paddack.
If I have a DK build that absolutely has to have something cheaper than Paddack, I will throw a blindfolded dart at Ross Stripling. It may sound mean, but Ross loves that game. And, as always, I mean that the thrower of the dart is wearing a blindfold, the dart itself can keep its face uncovered.
Monday Night Bats
I would love to start by just crossing off the six offenses against those top six pitchers, but I can’t quite go that far. This slate is weak enough and small enough that I have to keep at least Pete Alonso and the Braves power bats on the list, and I’m also considering landing on some cheap Orioles bats. But for a starting point, I’m finding a top tier that looks like this:
TOP TIER OFFENSE
Houston Astros vs Marco Gonzales
NY Yankees at Ross Stripling
Toronto Blue Jays vs Jordan Montgomery
Minnesota Twins at Tyler Wells
And then a gap to this weird little duo:
Seattle Mariners at Jake Odorizzi
TB Rays at Daulton Jefferies
OK, so nothing here is great, but we do have four good offenses facing basically average opposing pitchers.
Marco Gonzales will throw strikes and he’ll allow some power, up at a 2.00 HR/9 to righties in 2021. Houston should be getting Jose Altuve back tonight, which adds to the stacking upside, although he’s not someone I’m prioritizing spending on. Therein lies the problem with this whole Houston team against lefties. Who are we prioritizing? It would be Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel and Altuve, but these are not super elite power bats. The elite power bats are lefties Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. This is a high upside full stack, but not something I love for individual pieces.
If I’m spending on an individual bat, I’ll go to the Yankees-Blue Jays game first. Dating back to last season, Ross Stripling has allowed a .231 ISO to righties, with both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the .250 range. These guys are the epitome of what I was talking about in the intro today. If I’m going to spend up on individual bats, give me the guys who don’t care what ball they are using. Lefties Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo are also up above the .230 ISO mark and playable on their own.
I like the Yankees stack, probably as the top team of the slate overall in a vacuum, but I’m thinking that if we end up seeing chalk, it might be them. I love the top six bats in the Toronto lineup every bit as much and I would prefer to build around them ahead of the Astros and Yankees. Jordan Montgomery is not bad at all, but none of these pitchers are bad, and we’re just playing for the talent in these lineups. Toronto has lower strikeout power bats like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, and then we see both Matt Chapman and Lourdes Gurriel below $4K on DK tonight, which helps fit the stack all with upside pieces.
The Twins will get 4-5 innings of Tyler Wells, who has been very reverse-splitsy early in his career. He has a 23.3% K rate and .215 ISO against righties and a 32% K rate with .115 ISO against lefties. That is such a big difference, I triple-checked that this guy is right-handed. These numbers may well even out over time, but for now, it helps move Byron Buxton to the top of the charts tonight. The best thing about the Twins for DFS purposes is the positional flexibility they offer. After Buxton, I am going to be less concerned about splits and matchups, and more willing to just play the salary/position game and fill in whatever pieces I need from this lineup. There are only two batters in this lineup over $3K on FD and only two over $4K on DK, making it an easy fit as a secondary stack.
Jake Odorizzi had a good start last week, but prior to that plus using 2021 numbers, he is firmly in the running for worst pitcher on this slate. Just bear in mind that worst pitcher on this slate is not as bad as what we usually see from a worst pitcher. He is below average strikeouts to both sides of the plate and allows fly balls with power risk to both sides of the plate. We also saw bad control to open the season, which led to nine runs allowed in his first nine innings before last weeks improved start. With his power issues, I’m in on Ty France, Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker on their own, and I’m on board with full stacking here, only slightly behind those top four.
I will take another step down from the Mariners to the Rays in Oakland. Oakland is one of those ballparks where we need to be cautious chasing power, and on top of that, Brandon Lowe is the only batter here who stands out in any way as a one off. If you are stacking here, you’ll need to stay nimble until we see the lineup, as Wander Franco missed Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. He’s a key piece to the TB stack, but with his position and salary, it’s a completely different build without him.
THROWING SOME DARTS
I do love throwing darts, but what in the world is going on with these Axe Throwing establishments all of a sudden? You can go to downtown Opelika, AL and throw axes, so I imagine you can do this pretty much anywhere now (not just like out in the street willy-nilly, but you know, in the Axe Throwing establishment). I’ve had some cockamamie business ideas, but I sure wasn’t the brainchild behind the axe throwing craze. Anyhow, darts…
Pete Alonso vs Max Fried
Braves Stack or Acuna, Olson, Riley, Albies at Chris Bassitt
Cheap Orioles vs Chris Paddack
Cheap A’s vs Drew Rasmussen
Diamondbacks at Marlins just because baseball
The Braves and Mets are just good enough offenses that I can’t cross them off the list on a small slate. But this is so far down the list that I’m mostly just using the occasional power bat as one off in otherwise chalky builds.
If something from this group is going to win the slate, I’m taking a stab (darts, axes, knives!) at the Orioles against Chris Paddack. Yes, Paddack looks good, and yes, I’m playing Paddack tonight. But this is still a below average strikeout pitcher who has yet to allow a home run this season and after just 14 innings, I’m not willing to assume that he’s suddenly discovered some new ability to limit hard contact. He’s never been able to strike out lefties, so I’m building around Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander. The rest is just a salary-friendly stack on a slate where one or two big innings could make all the difference.
HITTING CLIFF NOTES
Much like we saw on the pitching side, it’s not too difficult to sort this slate into tiers, but it tough to separate things within that top tier. For me, I am going Blue Jays, Yankees, Astros, Twins and then Mariners as the primary stacks. I’m OK-ish with Tampa, but will likely end up with more Baltimore as the off the radar stack.
As far as spend up bats, these are my top hitters on this slate:
Aaron Judge, Byron Buxton, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Giancarlo Stanton
Next in line spend ups:
Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Ronald Acuna, Kyle Tucker
Favorite DK Values- Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Max Kepler, Jose Miranda, Joey Gallo, Lourdes Gurriel, Matt Chapman, Seth Brown
Favorite FD Values – Joey Gallo, Cedric Mullins, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Jesse Winker, Jose Altuve, Yulieski Gurriel, Marcell Ozuna, Randy Arozarena
Image Credit: Imagn