Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, August 14th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendricks | CHC | CHW | 208.1 | 3.24 | 3.68 | 1.13 | 18.4% | 5.0% | 0.69 | 1.59 | |
| Samardzija | CHW | CHC | 377.1 | 3.67 | 3.48 | 1.13 | 60.0% | 20.6% | 4.8% | 0.88 | 1.36 |
| Mills | OAK | BAL | 20.2 | 9.15 | 4.40 | 1.94 | 18.8% | 10.9% | 2.18 | 1.04 | |
| Jimenez | BAL | OAK | 251.1 | 4.30 | 4.13 | 1.40 | 27.8% | 21.3% | 10.7% | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| Nova | NYY | TOR | 66.2 | 4.99 | 4.38 | 1.44 | 25.0% | 14.9% | 7.6% | 1.48 | 1.63 |
| Price | TOR | NYY | 409.1 | 2.90 | 2.95 | 1.08 | 52.4% | 25.8% | 4.4% | 0.86 | 1.08 |
| Montgomery | SEA | BOS | 80.1 | 3.25 | 4.31 | 1.24 | 17.8% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 1.62 | |
| Kelly | BOS | SEA | 190 | 5.07 | 4.20 | 1.45 | 40.0% | 17.5% | 9.2% | 0.95 | 1.86 |
| Happ | PIT | NYM | 271 | 4.45 | 4.03 | 1.38 | 30.8% | 19.0% | 7.3% | 1.16 | 1.13 |
| Colon | NYM | PIT | 336.2 | 4.36 | 3.80 | 1.24 | 42.1% | 17.5% | 3.1% | 1.07 | 1.02 |
| Ray | ARI | ATL | 106.1 | 4.49 | 4.02 | 1.36 | 33.3% | 19.7% | 7.0% | 0.93 | 0.89 |
| Teheran | ATL | ARI | 359 | 3.53 | 3.85 | 1.19 | 70.0% | 20.5% | 6.9% | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| Karns | TBR | TEX | 137.1 | 3.60 | 3.72 | 1.20 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 1.18 | 1.13 | |
| Perez | TEX | TBR | 77.2 | 4.87 | 4.02 | 1.38 | 37.5% | 15.9% | 8.1% | 0.35 | 2.29 |
| Kluber | CLE | MIN | 407.1 | 2.87 | 2.73 | 1.09 | 57.1% | 27.8% | 5.1% | 0.57 | 1.44 |
| May | MIN | CLE | 140.1 | 5.32 | 3.80 | 1.49 | 20.7% | 6.8% | 0.96 | 0.94 | |
| Morgan | PHI | MIL | 44.1 | 4.06 | 5.19 | 1.40 | 13.2% | 7.4% | 1.42 | 0.62 | |
| Peralta | MIL | PHI | 269 | 3.78 | 3.89 | 1.34 | 47.4% | 17.2% | 7.1% | 1.10 | 1.88 |
| Weaver | LAA | KCR | 315 | 3.94 | 4.30 | 1.21 | 52.4% | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.23 | 0.74 |
| Duffy | KCR | LAA | 241.2 | 3.17 | 4.59 | 1.23 | 57.1% | 16.9% | 9.1% | 0.82 | 0.86 |
| Simon | DET | HOU | 319.2 | 3.94 | 4.33 | 1.30 | 63.2% | 15.6% | 7.3% | 1.01 | 1.43 |
| Keuchel | HOU | DET | 364.2 | 2.69 | 2.95 | 1.10 | 50.0% | 19.9% | 6.0% | 0.49 | 3.57 |
| Koehler | MIA | STL | 318.2 | 3.78 | 4.26 | 1.28 | 52.6% | 18.3% | 8.7% | 0.88 | 1.20 |
| Garcia | STL | MIA | 109.2 | 2.71 | 3.04 | 0.97 | 28.6% | 20.1% | 5.7% | 0.82 | 2.94 |
| Ross | SDP | COL | 336.1 | 3.05 | 3.23 | 1.28 | 66.7% | 24.5% | 9.7% | 0.45 | 3.05 |
| Flande | COL | SDP | 91.2 | 4.71 | 3.66 | 1.21 | 14.1% | 6.4% | 0.98 | 2.82 | |
| Lamb | CIN | LAD | |||||||||
| Wood | LAD | CIN | 302.1 | 3.19 | 3.55 | 1.26 | 58.3% | 21.7% | 6.9% | 0.74 | 1.42 |
| Scherzer | WAS | SFG | 382.1 | 2.85 | 2.80 | 1.05 | 60.0% | 28.9% | 5.6% | 0.80 | 0.83 |
| Cain | SFG | WAS | 127.1 | 4.59 | 4.28 | 1.35 | 40.0% | 17.7% | 8.3% | 1.34 | 1.17 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Max Scherzer WAS (at SF) – Scherzer was on track for NL Cy hardware, but a recent stumble timed with the predictable resurgence of Clayton Kershaw has out Scherzer in chase mode. The strikeouts have been there all season, including 33 punchouts over 24 innings in his last four starts, but the run prevention over that same span leaves something to be desired with a 4.50 ERA. The Giants’ offense will sneak up on a pitcher, so Scherzer will hope that tonight’s lineup more closely resembles the .278 wOBA ballclub of the past seven days rather than the team that has posted a .322 wOBA for the season.
Corey Kluber CLE (at MIN) – He has a horrible won-loss record at 7-12, a pedestrian (by today’s standards) ERA of 3.46, and is facing a Minnesota offense that has found a groove over the past week. So why is Kluber one of the top two options on today’s slate? A combination of peripheral stats and the season-long comparison of opponents vaults Kluber into a discussion as the top pitcher on today’s board. His 27.1-percent strikeout percentage and career-low walk rate of 4.8 percent conspire to give Kluber a ridiculous K-to-walk ratio of 5.64 in an MLB-leading 171.7 innings this season. Look to see if the ERA starts to work its way into a closer match for his 1.083 WHIP.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
David Price TOR (vs. NYY) – Price is typically an All-in guy, but his heavy-hitting opponents effectively knock him down a peg. As a team, the Yankees place within the top five in baseball with a .327 wOBA, a number that shoots up to .334 when an opposing southpaw is on the mound. That said, the Yankees have been slumping badly for the past week with a .218 wOBA and a mere 478 OPS as a team; facing Price is unlikely to cure the disease that ails the Yankee bats.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. DET) – Keuchel’s tremendous leap forward this season has put him in the All-in discussion from week to week, but tonight’s turn against the Tigers will form a blockade to Keuchel’s ascension. Even after trading away Yoenis Cespedes and losing Miguel Cabrera to the disabled list, the Tigers have leaned heavily to the right, with a lineup full of players who have massive platoon splits in favor of facing southpaws, including Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Rajai Davis and Jose Iglesias. The upside of Keuchel is much higher than I had imagined prior to the season, but the likelihood of reaching ceiling is much lower against a team like Detroit.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendricks | 0.302 | 2.76 | 0.277 | 3.64 | 0.253 | 0.700 | 0.285 | 3.37 | 0.244 | 88.89 | 18.4% |
| Samardzija | 0.312 | 3.78 | 0.284 | 3.58 | 0.238 | 0.689 | 0.290 | 3.46 | 0.244 | 102.45 | 20.6% |
| Mills | 0.629 | 25.41 | 0.333 | 3.00 | 0.264 | 0.719 | 0.375 | 6.33 | 0.33 | 82.60 | 18.8% |
| Jimenez | 0.329 | 4.72 | 0.311 | 3.79 | 0.253 | 0.697 | 0.293 | 4.24 | 0.243 | 93.43 | 21.3% |
| Nova | 0.348 | 4.11 | 0.369 | 5.97 | 0.255 | 0.759 | 0.301 | 5.13 | 0.281 | 86.08 | 14.9% |
| Price | 0.287 | 2.55 | 0.280 | 3.02 | 0.255 | 0.770 | 0.297 | 2.86 | 0.234 | 108.42 | 25.8% |
| Montgomery | 0.312 | 3.32 | 0.294 | 3.23 | 0.258 | 0.720 | 0.260 | 4.17 | 0.228 | 96.38 | 17.8% |
| Kelly | 0.318 | 4.11 | 0.347 | 6.15 | 0.237 | 0.701 | 0.305 | 4.33 | 0.264 | 93.66 | 17.5% |
| Happ | 0.367 | 4.37 | 0.329 | 4.47 | 0.227 | 0.656 | 0.310 | 4.15 | 0.269 | 89.62 | 19.0% |
| Colon | 0.311 | 4.24 | 0.325 | 4.48 | 0.258 | 0.712 | 0.310 | 3.65 | 0.274 | 92.66 | 17.5% |
| Ray | 0.320 | 3.10 | 0.346 | 5.00 | 0.231 | 0.633 | 0.318 | 3.72 | 0.268 | 84.05 | 19.7% |
| Teheran | 0.327 | 3.97 | 0.280 | 3.12 | 0.266 | 0.738 | 0.282 | 3.83 | 0.241 | 98.23 | 20.5% |
| Karns | 0.302 | 2.96 | 0.298 | 4.28 | 0.262 | 0.743 | 0.269 | 4.03 | 0.225 | 94.25 | 23.3% |
| Perez | 0.278 | 6.30 | 0.341 | 4.37 | 0.252 | 0.748 | 0.326 | 3.39 | 0.276 | 91.08 | 15.9% |
| Kluber | 0.311 | 3.11 | 0.238 | 2.62 | 0.243 | 0.691 | 0.315 | 2.43 | 0.234 | 103.83 | 27.8% |
| May | 0.342 | 4.00 | 0.354 | 6.62 | 0.252 | 0.713 | 0.353 | 3.69 | 0.291 | 61.95 | 20.7% |
| Morgan | 0.278 | 5.23 | 0.371 | 3.71 | 0.218 | 0.647 | 0.291 | 5.17 | 0.277 | 83.13 | 13.2% |
| Peralta | 0.362 | 4.93 | 0.295 | 2.71 | 0.249 | 0.674 | 0.300 | 4.26 | 0.266 | 97.11 | 17.2% |
| Weaver | 0.324 | 4.05 | 0.295 | 3.79 | 0.268 | 0.734 | 0.271 | 4.32 | 0.247 | 97.36 | 17.2% |
| Duffy | 0.220 | 1.78 | 0.318 | 3.58 | 0.237 | 0.679 | 0.259 | 4.16 | 0.229 | 83.19 | 16.9% |
| Simon | 0.346 | 4.52 | 0.287 | 3.31 | 0.245 | 0.739 | 0.280 | 4.31 | 0.253 | 94.91 | 15.6% |
| Keuchel | 0.225 | 2.41 | 0.286 | 2.78 | 0.277 | 0.781 | 0.281 | 3.03 | 0.232 | 104.60 | 19.9% |
| Koehler | 0.304 | 3.85 | 0.312 | 3.71 | 0.261 | 0.725 | 0.279 | 4.04 | 0.241 | 91.59 | 18.3% |
| Garcia | 0.329 | 4.88 | 0.243 | 2.10 | 0.279 | 0.756 | 0.239 | 3.49 | 0.207 | 91.24 | 20.1% |
| Ross | 0.304 | 3.27 | 0.277 | 2.84 | 0.278 | 0.794 | 0.309 | 3.06 | 0.233 | 99.35 | 24.5% |
| Flande | 0.251 | 5.40 | 0.342 | 4.38 | 0.228 | 0.639 | 0.268 | 4.27 | 0.249 | 51.19 | 14.1% |
| Lamb | 0.261 | 0.743 | |||||||||
| Wood | 0.273 | 2.33 | 0.316 | 3.46 | 0.245 | 0.724 | 0.314 | 3.33 | 0.255 | 83.35 | 21.7% |
| Scherzer | 0.297 | 3.29 | 0.244 | 2.30 | 0.273 | 0.754 | 0.291 | 2.71 | 0.218 | 106.98 | 28.9% |
| Cain | 0.356 | 4.95 | 0.330 | 4.31 | 0.248 | 0.707 | 0.286 | 4.73 | 0.258 | 94.00 | 17.7% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Robbie Ray ARI (at ATL) – Ray has given up two or more runs in each of his last nine starts, resulting in a 4.08 ERA and 757 opponents’ OPS in that span, but tonight’s matchup with the Braves and their quadruple-A lineup could carve out an opportunity for the Arizona southpaw to keep the bases clear and the scoreboard clean. The peripherals have held up even as the run prevention took a dive, as during that same nine-start period Ray recorded 55 strikeouts against 14 walks (a 3.93 K-to-walk ratio) in 53.0 innings of work. Ray has also lasted past the 90-pitch mark in every game that he’s pitched in the majors this season.
Nate Karns TB (at TEX) – The 2014 season was a bit of a lost cause for Karns, whose 5.08 ERA was tough to swallow for Triple-A Durham, yet up to that point his career ERA in the minors was just 2.66. Karns has posted huge strikeout rates throughout his minor-league tenure, making his 23.3-percent K rate with the Nats all the more impressive. The Rangers boast a middle-of-the-road offense that has the capacity to go off (particularly at home). Karns has been limited to 86 pitches or fewer in each of his last four starts, coming in under 90 throws 10 times in 22 starts, so there’s a modicum of risk that Karns lacks the stamina to put up a strong point total.
Julio Teheran ATL (vs. ARI) – Throughout his career, Teheran has been far better at home than on the road, and even in the darkest of times (read: this season) his ERA is just 2.52 when pitching at Turner Field. It could just be a fluke, or maybe there is something to that appeals to Teheran about the home dirt, but even with the advantage of home turf he represents a huge risk. The right-hander was excellent for two full seasons for hitting this year’s pothole, and some managers may want avoid an Arizona offense that leads the NL with 514 runs scored.
Jaime Garcia STL (vs. MIA) – Jaime just keeps on rollin’, including seven shutout innings in his last start, featuring just six baserunners and no runs allowed to bring his ERA down to 1.77 through 10 starts this season. He’s walked eight batters across his past two starts, covering 12.0 innings, but that pretty much sums up the damage; he’s given up just one run and four hits during that stretch. Now he gets the pleasure of facing Miami, a dysfunctional offense that can make any pitcher look good for a day.
Wily Peralta MIL (vs. PHI) – Peralta was a popular breakout candidate prior to the season, thanks to mid-90’s velocity and the youth to hang a hat on his ability to improve, but he hasn’t yet made the impact that was predicted. His current ERA of 4.48 is the highest of his career, he couldn’t escape the fourth inning two starts ago against the lowly Padres, and his struggles with command are often associated more with home runs and crooked numbers on the scoreboard than walk totals.
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. OAK)
Mike Montgomery SEA (at BOS)
Alex Wood LAD (vs. CIN)
Matt Cain SF (vs. WAS)
Tyson Ross SD (at COL) – It will be very interesting to see what happens to his sliders at altitude, and whether Ross will back off of his outrageous propensity to unleash the breaking ball – he has thrown an MLB-leading 1057 sliders this season, besting runner-up Chris Archer by 139 pitches. He leads the majors in both highest walk volume and lowest home run ratio (his 0.26 homers per nine innings ranks first among starting pitchers), but one can imagine a scenario where those numbers all regress toward the mean due to a compromised slider that catches more strike zone.
Danny Duffy KC (vs. LAA)
Martin Perez TEX (vs. TB)
Jered Weaver LAA (at KC)
J.A. Happ PIT (at NYM)
Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. PIT)
Alfredo Simon DET (at HOU)
Tom Koehler MIA (at STL)
Adam Morgan PHI (at MIL)
Trevor May MIN (vs. CLE) – Fun fact: Trevor May has more wins this season (eight) than tonight’s opposing pitcher, Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber (seven wins).
John Lamb CIN (at LAD)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Joe Kelly BOS (vs. SEA)
Yohan Flande COL (vs. SD)
Ivan Nova NYY (at TOR) – Nothing against Nova here, but playing Toronto at home typically means that runs will be scored, and the fact that he’s facing David Price further depresses Nova’s odds of getting a W.
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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