Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, July 1st

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-02 02:47:56

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Tomlin	CLE	TOR	155	3.19	3.98	0.97	23.1%	18.4%	2.6%	1.80	0.96
Stroman	TOR	CLE	128.1	4.56	3.91	1.32	66.7%	16.5%	6.9%	0.84	2.96
DeSclafani	CIN	WAS	208.1	3.76	4.15	1.34	20.0%	18.8%	7.0%	0.82	1.36
Roark	WAS	CIN	211.1	3.71	4.01	1.26	52.6%	18.0%	6.6%	1.02	1.81
Kennedy	KCR	PHI	257	4.17	3.80	1.26	47.6%	24.0%	7.5%	1.75	0.86
Hellickson	PHI	KCR	239.2	4.47	4.07	1.29		20.0%	6.6%	1.43	1.19
Hammel	CHC	NYM	258	3.35	3.74	1.13	47.4%	22.8%	6.3%	1.08	1.09
deGrom	NYM	CHC	272	2.58	3.18	1.02	50.0%	26.2%	5.3%	0.73	1.36
Smyly	TBR	DET	156.1	4.38	3.39	1.21	50.0%	27.2%	6.2%	1.73	0.73
Chacin	LAA	BOS	101.2	5.05	4.65	1.44	18.2%	16.8%	9.2%	1.06	1.70
Wright	BOS	LAA	175.2	2.97	4.54	1.20		18.6%	9.0%	0.87	1.20
Nicolino	MIA	ATL	129.2	4.51	5.42	1.37		9.2%	6.2%	0.90	1.20
Teheran	ATL	MIA	306.2	3.49	4.07	1.16	70.0%	21.5%	7.7%	1.17	1.02
Gonzalez	CWS	HOU	200.1	4.99	4.60	1.44	40.0%	17.6%	8.6%	1.35	1.14
Fiers	HOU	CWS	264	3.92	4.03	1.28		21.1%	7.3%	1.26	1.07
Perez	TEX	MIN	175.1	3.90	4.74	1.40	37.5%	12.7%	8.7%	0.62	2.33
Santana	MIN	TEX	185.2	4.27	4.53	1.36	38.9%	17.3%	7.5%	1.11	1.12
Garza	MIL	STL	164.2	5.36	4.72	1.56	35.0%	15.2%	8.3%	1.26	1.38
Garcia	STL	MIL	217.2	3.10	3.63	1.18	28.6%	19.4%	6.6%	0.54	2.59
Cueto	SFG	ARI	327.1	3.08	3.76	1.09	76.2%	20.7%	5.2%	0.69	1.40
Miller	ARI	SFG	263.2	3.86	4.47	1.36	21.1%	18.7%	9.2%	0.85	1.35
Locke	PIT	OAK	258	4.71	4.52	1.40	66.7%	15.7%	7.9%	0.94	1.75
Gray	OAK	PIT	286.2	3.36	3.96	1.19	60.0%	19.7%	7.5%	0.88	1.77
Gausman	BAL	SEA	188	4.12	3.78	1.24	37.5%	21.7%	5.9%	1.39	1.21
LeBlanc	SEA	BAL
De La Rosa	COL	LAD	197.2	4.74	4.16	1.43	40.0%	21.3%	10.3%	1.27	1.83
Norris	LAD	COL	153.1	5.58	4.22	1.48	26.7%	19.3%	8.7%	1.23	1.48
Eovaldi	NYY	SDP	241	4.56	3.99	1.42	50.0%	18.7%	7.0%	1.01	1.90
Rea	SDP	NYY	108.1	4.82	4.57	1.38		18.4%	9.3%	0.75	1.51

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

It’s a weird day. There are a few interesting players at the top but there isn’t an elite option on the board. The Call list is huge, with the vast majority of today’s pitchers swimming in the middle of the player pool. There is a lot of context to consider with these players, and even the arms at the top of the list have their warts. The good news is that there will be less consensus on a day like today, and there is viability in the “safer” options as well a those that are more volatile.

Shuffle up and deal.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Johnny Cueto SF (at ARI) – Three times this season, Cueto has given up exactly six runs (all earned) in a start, and the last of those was against the Phillies in his last turn. In his other 13 starts, Cueto has thrown a quality start. In 10 of those starts, he has cleared 7.0 innings pitched, and in nine of those he has kept the opponents to two runs or less. Cueto might not be elite, but he’s the next best thing, and his ability to go deep into ballgames gives him access to fantasy points that other hurlers just can’t reach. Maybe he does deserve All-In status, with the upside to clear 37 or more points on DraftKings three different times this season, but the gap between Cueto and the next guy on our list is not large enough to justify different tiers.

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. MIA) – Teheran just keeps getting better. He has pitched 8.0 or more innings in three of the last four starts; in the other one he went seven full. In fact, he has gone seven-plus innings in 10 of his last 14 starts, and though he had a lot of hit-and-miss with his game-to-game strikeout totals early in the year, every start in June included a count of seven or eight Ks. He hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in a start since mid-April and he’s coming off his best two starts of the year, twirling back-to-back blanks with 17.0 combined scoreless innings and 14 strikeouts against six hits and no walks; two starts ago, he came within a single of perfection against the Mets.

Michael Fulmer DET (at TB) – Fulmer has been on a great run over the last month. He hasn’t given up more than five hits or more than a single run in seven starts. The control, on the other hand, is an issue. He has 11 walks in his last 22.0 innings pitched and was jettisoned early from his last start after plunking two hitters in a row. The pitcher who cleared 7.0 innings pitched in each of three straight starts has given way to one who has only thrown 9.2 frames combined over his last two starts. The Tigers might give Fulmer a longer leash today given his limited pitch counts over the last two turns and the fact that he struck out 11 Rays (a season high) in his first outing against them, back in mid-May. That game was the start of Fulmer’s turnaround, and it could be his opportunity to get on track.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Tomlin	0.255	2.56	0.327	3.72	0.260	0.785	0.229	4.68	0.226	0.01	18.4%
Stroman	0.324	5.11	0.315	3.92	0.254	0.737	0.306	3.94	0.268	0.01	16.5%
DeSclafani	0.341	4.50	0.300	2.93	0.247	0.719	0.317	3.72	0.268	0.01	18.8%
Roark	0.319	3.11	0.305	4.25	0.244	0.701	0.293	4.08	0.257	0.00	18.0%
Kennedy	0.344	4.36	0.329	3.98	0.242	0.682	0.284	4.77	0.245	0.01	24.0%
Hellickson	0.354	4.58	0.320	4.40	0.270	0.734	0.290	4.45	0.256	0.00	20.0%
Hammel	0.314	3.05	0.284	3.57	0.241	0.709	0.274	3.75	0.229	0.00	22.8%
deGrom	0.283	3.06	0.232	2.06	0.248	0.742	0.279	2.79	0.217	0.01	26.2%
Fulmer	0.254	1.26	0.305	3.34	0.241	0.704	0.260	3.82	0.213	0.02	22.8%
Smyly	0.279	3.60	0.332	4.60	0.273	0.792	0.298	4.20	0.245	0.01	27.2%
Chacin	0.348	5.54	0.314	4.56	0.272	0.769	0.294	4.51	0.261	0.00	16.8%
Wright	0.269	3.01	0.295	2.94	0.254	0.713	0.252	4.09	0.219	0.01	18.6%
Nicolino	0.301	5.59	0.348	4.20	0.231	0.627	0.295	4.58	0.284	0.00	9.2%
Teheran	0.352	4.69	0.242	2.48	0.261	0.700	0.262	4.16	0.226	0.00	21.5%
Gonzalez	0.352	4.63	0.336	5.30	0.251	0.751	0.304	4.83	0.272	0.00	17.6%
Fiers	0.299	3.54	0.338	4.26	0.249	0.701	0.294	4.23	0.252	0.00	21.1%
Perez	0.227	1.41	0.339	4.60	0.254	0.724	0.296	4.13	0.267	0.00	12.7%
Santana	0.336	4.48	0.319	4.05	0.259	0.740	0.300	4.30	0.265	0.01	17.3%
Garza	0.366	5.18	0.349	5.53	0.264	0.762	0.322	4.76	0.291	0.00	15.2%
Garcia	0.293	3.13	0.275	3.09	0.236	0.688	0.290	3.24	0.24	0.01	19.4%
Cueto	0.271	2.63	0.291	3.46	0.264	0.739	0.281	3.22	0.233	0.00	20.7%
Miller	0.342	4.19	0.284	3.54	0.266	0.742	0.294	4.03	0.25	0.00	18.7%
Locke	0.327	5.29	0.327	4.52	0.257	0.725	0.302	4.26	0.269	0.00	15.7%
Gray	0.275	2.73	0.296	4.00	0.263	0.734	0.271	3.74	0.232	0.00	19.7%
Gausman	0.274	2.82	0.358	5.38	0.249	0.736	0.293	4.15	0.253	0.01	21.7%
LeBlanc					0.242	0.687
De La Rosa	0.307	5.51	0.350	4.71	0.252	0.729	0.298	4.59	0.252	0.01	21.3%
Norris	0.379	5.86	0.320	5.31	0.273	0.787	0.319	4.49	0.274	0.00	19.3%
Eovaldi	0.357	4.95	0.301	4.26	0.239	0.677	0.325	3.94	0.278	0.00	18.7%
Rea	0.312	4.52	0.320	5.21	0.248	0.729	0.294	4.04	0.249	0.01	18.4%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Jacob DeGrom NYM (vs. CHC) – He’s coming off a pair of friendly starts against the Braves, which in turn trailed a pair of great turns against the Pirates, and in fact deGrom has a six-game run of quality starts in which he has carried a composite ERA of 2.25 across 40.0 innings with 47 strikeouts against eight walks. He hasn’t faced an opponent with the Cubbies’ firepower, but the fact that he posted a quality start at altitude in Colorado is an encouraging sign that he can handle the challenge. Against anybody else, DeGrom would for an easy addition to the Raise team.

Sonny Gray OAK (vs. PIT) – Gray looks like he’s back on track after fallign off the run-prevention wagon for all of May. He has given up just one or two runs in four of his last five starts, though the strikeouts have remained on the low side with only 22 strikeouts over 30.2 June innings, but then again strikeouts were never a major part of his repertoire. He has worked his way back up to a workload in excess of 100 pitches in each of his last two starts, and though he may have been a bit overrated to start, Gray is ready to resume his role as a steady presence near the top of the Oakland rotation.

Steven Wright BOS (vs. LAA) – Wright’s eight-run fiasco in his last start seems out of place, but the fact that five of the runs were unearned was decidedly not out of place. He has given up 39 runs this season, only 25 of which were earned, and in fact 10 of the 16 runs that he has surrendered this month have been unearned. The knuckleballer has only given up more than three earned runs one time this season, and he will need to keep up the stellar earned-run prevention to make up for a pedestrian strikeout rate and the standard issue with giving away free passes that will follow a pitcher whose goal is for the baseball to be as unpredictable as possible.

Jason Hammel CHC (at NYM) – Hammel has maintained a shiny ERA all season, with the run prevention currently checking in at the 2.58 level. But all is not quiet in Wrigleyville, particularly for a pitcher with a reputation for second-half fades, a modest K rate that seems to be shrinking by the start, and a homerless track record in April has started leaking bombs. He has only topped four strikeouts once in his last seven turns, and Hammel is following the Steven Wright path of requiring zeroes in order to make dents in your fantasy bottom line.

Drew Smyly TB (vs. DET) – Smyly has crushed a lot more fantasy dreams than he has floated recently. He is coming off an eight-run head-shaker against the Orioles, which came just four starts after he gave up another eight runs (with 12 hits) in 4.0 frames against the Royals. In-between, Smyly tossed a pair of forgettable four-run outings sandwiched around one incredible start in which he struck out 12 Mariners over 6.2 innings. And therein lies the problem. Smyly has spiked double-digit Ks three different times this season, crossing the 30-point threshold on DraftKings each time; he has only cleared 15 points in four other starts. Recommended only for use in large-scale tournaments, cash games need not apply.

Ian Kennedy KC (at PHI) – IPK is coming off a season-high 11 strikeouts in a game against the Astros, but Houston has a knack for giving away high-K outings to opposing pitchers. Kennedy had posted six or fewer strikeouts in 11 of his previous 12 starts, and though he has consistently harnessed the walk totals this month (six walks in five games), the runs allowed have been all over the map. Kennedy coughed up 12 total tallies in a two-game stretch to start the month, threw a gem in his last start and was mediocre in-between. He gets a light-hitting Phillies club for today’s game, and though the opposing offense is less imposing, it only too the offenses of the White Sox and Yankees to put up seven-spots against the right-hander earlier in the year.

Jaime Garcia STL (vs. MIL) – The Brewers biggest bats crush lefties, including Ryan Braun (career +160 OPS vs. LHP) and Jonathan Lucroy (+70 OPS), but as a team they are fairly neutral. Garcia has been very easy to hit lately, with 59 hits allowed over his last seven starts and 37.2 innings of work. He only has 24 strikeouts over that stretch, and though the empty-swinging Brewers might help Garcia to turn around the K rate, they are unlikely to provide much relief for a pitcher who has been grooving far too many pitches for any big-league offense to not take advantage.

Kevin Gausman BAL (at SEA) – Gausman is finally starting to emerge from the shroud of obscurity from pitching in the AL East. He isn’t really playable against the Red Sox and Blue Jays of the world, because there are few who are, but Gausman has shown the ability to shutdown lesser offenses like those of the White Sox, Yankees, Rays and Twins. The Mariners could present some problems with players like Cano and Cruz, but Gausman has been decently effective when facing a non-elite offense.

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. KC)

Martin Perez TEX (at MIN)

Nate Eovaldi NYY (at SD)

Matt Garza MIL (at STL)

Mike Fiers HOU (vs. CHW)

Justin Nicolino MIA (at ATL)

Wade LeBlanc SEA (vs. BAL)

Shelby Miller ARI (vs. SF)

Bud Norris LAD (vs. COL)