Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, July 24th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams | PHI | CHC | 185 | 5.40 | 4.27 | 1.51 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 1.26 | 1.32 | |
| Lester | CHC | PHI | 337.1 | 2.77 | 3.15 | 1.14 | 65.0% | 24.4% | 5.8% | 0.69 | 1.31 |
| Scherzer | WAS | PIT | 358.1 | 2.74 | 2.79 | 1.03 | 60.0% | 28.6% | 5.4% | 0.70 | 0.81 |
| Locke | PIT | WAS | 234.2 | 3.95 | 4.06 | 1.33 | 66.7% | 16.8% | 7.8% | 0.88 | 1.87 |
| Verlander | DET | BOS | 240 | 4.84 | 4.26 | 1.41 | 35.0% | 17.3% | 7.4% | 0.97 | 0.96 |
| Porcello | BOS | DET | 310.1 | 4.23 | 3.90 | 1.29 | 55.6% | 16.4% | 5.2% | 1.04 | 1.53 |
| Quintana | CHW | CLE | 320.1 | 3.51 | 3.50 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 21.2% | 5.9% | 0.56 | 1.40 |
| Kluber | CLE | CHW | 376.2 | 2.80 | 2.65 | 1.10 | 57.1% | 28.3% | 5.3% | 0.57 | 1.50 |
| Tillman | BAL | TBR | 305.1 | 3.86 | 4.33 | 1.30 | 42.9% | 17.3% | 8.1% | 0.91 | 1.04 |
| Archer | TBR | BAL | 323.1 | 3.09 | 3.33 | 1.17 | 55.0% | 24.5% | 7.7% | 0.67 | 1.47 |
| Thomas | LAD | NYM | 21 | 4.71 | 4.29 | 1.57 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 0.86 | 1.10 | |
| Niese | NYM | LAD | 300 | 3.39 | 3.90 | 1.29 | 41.2% | 16.6% | 6.2% | 0.84 | 1.80 |
| Kazmir | HOU | KCR | 300 | 3.12 | 3.60 | 1.13 | 63.2% | 21.8% | 7.0% | 0.69 | 1.24 |
| Guthrie | KCR | HOU | 303.1 | 4.54 | 4.55 | 1.37 | 42.1% | 13.5% | 6.0% | 1.07 | 1.11 |
| Pineda | NYY | MIN | 188.2 | 3.01 | 3.04 | 1.05 | 75.0% | 22.8% | 2.9% | 0.81 | 1.32 |
| Hughes | MIN | NYY | 333.1 | 3.75 | 3.57 | 1.17 | 45.0% | 18.9% | 2.1% | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| Banuelos | ATL | STL | 16.2 | 1.08 | 4.44 | 1.20 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 0.54 | 1.00 | |
| Cooney | STL | ATL | 24.1 | 3.33 | 3.91 | 1.36 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 1.11 | 0.89 | |
| Desclafani | CIN | COL | 139 | 4.53 | 4.25 | 1.37 | 20.0% | 17.2% | 7.6% | 0.84 | 1.18 |
| Butler | COL | CIN | 70.1 | 5.25 | 5.36 | 1.83 | 9.7% | 11.2% | 1.15 | 2.03 | |
| Nelson | MIL | ARI | 184.2 | 4.53 | 3.85 | 1.36 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 0.93 | 1.58 | |
| Corbin | ARI | MIL | 15 | 4.80 | 3.24 | 1.20 | 21.0% | 3.2% | 2.40 | 1.41 | |
| Lewis | TEX | LAA | 289 | 4.95 | 4.18 | 1.39 | 11.8% | 17.5% | 5.7% | 1.21 | 0.75 |
| Tropeano | LAA | TEX | 27.2 | 3.58 | 4.64 | 1.23 | 15.7% | 8.7% | 0.00 | 0.95 | |
| Haren | MIA | SDP | 303 | 3.80 | 3.93 | 1.14 | 30.0% | 18.1% | 4.7% | 1.31 | 0.88 |
| Cashner | SDP | MIA | 233 | 3.28 | 3.72 | 1.23 | 75.0% | 19.5% | 6.5% | 0.77 | 1.48 |
| Hutchison | TOR | SEA | 288.2 | 4.74 | 3.67 | 1.34 | 31.6% | 22.4% | 7.4% | 1.06 | 0.91 |
| Hernandez | SEA | TOR | 359.1 | 2.35 | 2.73 | 0.97 | 81.0% | 26.0% | 6.0% | 0.65 | 2.20 |
| Chavez | OAK | SFG | 252.2 | 3.35 | 3.63 | 1.26 | 52.6% | 21.6% | 7.2% | 0.89 | 1.17 |
| Peavy | SFG | OAK | 230 | 3.87 | 4.16 | 1.30 | 42.1% | 18.3% | 7.5% | 1.06 | 0.91 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Corey Kluber CLE (vs. CHW) – They don’t strike out a ton, but that’s just about the only positive notes to be taken from a White Sox offense that is otherwise a disaster. Kluber’s last three starts have also been modest in the K category, with 18 strikeouts in 22.3 innings pitched, but his effectiveness is underscored by a 2.01 ERA over that same stretch. He had a similar string of games just before Kluber churned out his 18-K masterpiece, and the feel here is that he can break out with a monster performance at any given time; his facing one of the weakest opponents in the game is an indication that the time is now.
Max Scherzer WAS (at PIT) – Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher available today on both Draft Kings and Fan Duel, but he comes in second on this list. He’s a statistical marvel this season, with 158 strikeouts yet just 15 walks in 138.0 innings, including a ridiculously-low 0.80 WHIP. He’s pitched eight or more innings in five of his last seven ballgames, has reached double-digit strikeouts a half-dozen times this year, and has yet to walk more than two batters in any one contest. Scherzer will be trying to take advantage of a Pittsburgh club that has been vulnerable to the whiff lately, with a 28.6-percent K rate for their hitters over the last seven days, the highest frequency in the majors over that stretch. Scherzer will be a lock for double-digit strikeouts today if that trend continues.
Felix Hernandez SEA (vs. TOR) – This is the part where I warn the readers about the vaunted Toronto offense, how they lead the majors in runs per game, and that one should discount the opposing pitcher accordingly. King Felix, however, is nearly matchup-proof, and he already silenced the Blue Jay bats back on May 22nd with eight strikeouts and six baserunners allowed in seven innings of work. The only run that he gave up in that game was on a solo homer to Edwin Encarnacion, who has hit Felix reasonably well in his career, and the King will also want to be careful with Jose Bautista – he has hit .304/.448/.609 with a pair of homers in 29 career plate appearances against the King. The strikeouts have been somewhat limited for Hernandez lately, as he hasn’t cracked more than eight punchouts in a ballgame since April and has registered more than a half-dozen K’s just once in his last nine starts.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Chris Archer TB (vs. BAL) – Archer’s performance this season has earned him the right to stand amidst the All-in ranks, that is when his opponent calls for it, but tonight’s intradivision matchup with the Orioles is enough to give me pause. Archer has faced the O’s twice already this season, and in both games he surrendered four-plus runs, which is notable for a pitcher who has only endured four-run outings five total times this season. The right-hander was blasted for nine runs against the Royals just two starts ago, and he was hit up for five runs against the Red Sox two starts before that, so there is enough risk here to fade Archer out of contention for All-in status tonight. That said, the matchup is setup for a ton of strikeouts, potentially buffering his point total if the run prevention falls apart.
Michael Pineda NYY (at MIN) – Pineda has owned the strike zone this season, with 113 strikeouts and a Scherzerian 15 walks in 112.3 innings, but the hits have been falling in with regularity. He has a bad habit of blow-ups this season, and when things go south he falls apart in all categories; consider that the last five times that he’s surrendered four or more runs have been supported by just 1.8 strikeouts per game. Those five contests have occurred among his last 11 games, and the other six games averaged 8.3 K’s per turn. He has the potential to unravel an entire lineup or to carry one on his back to victory, but there seems to be no middle ground.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams | 0.347 | 4.77 | 0.365 | 5.98 | 0.235 | 0.682 | 0.326 | 4.66 | 0.296 | 58.20 | 14.9% |
| Lester | 0.309 | 2.28 | 0.283 | 2.92 | 0.261 | 0.706 | 0.301 | 2.89 | 0.237 | 105.63 | 24.4% |
| Scherzer | 0.286 | 3.08 | 0.249 | 2.32 | 0.256 | 0.698 | 0.291 | 2.57 | 0.217 | 107.42 | 28.6% |
| Locke | 0.270 | 3.59 | 0.329 | 4.05 | 0.250 | 0.697 | 0.295 | 4.06 | 0.259 | 93.87 | 16.8% |
| Verlander | 0.311 | 3.54 | 0.375 | 6.66 | 0.261 | 0.720 | 0.313 | 4.07 | 0.273 | 105.53 | 17.3% |
| Porcello | 0.335 | 3.89 | 0.316 | 4.65 | 0.280 | 0.769 | 0.307 | 4.00 | 0.274 | 95.04 | 16.4% |
| Quintana | 0.289 | 4.48 | 0.312 | 3.19 | 0.261 | 0.726 | 0.326 | 2.97 | 0.263 | 104.22 | 21.2% |
| Kluber | 0.313 | 2.98 | 0.240 | 2.60 | 0.246 | 0.674 | 0.319 | 2.39 | 0.235 | 103.83 | 28.3% |
| Tillman | 0.301 | 3.00 | 0.325 | 4.87 | 0.233 | 0.660 | 0.282 | 4.05 | 0.247 | 98.04 | 17.3% |
| Archer | 0.276 | 2.89 | 0.285 | 3.33 | 0.256 | 0.742 | 0.290 | 3.11 | 0.227 | 99.52 | 24.5% |
| Thomas | 0.258 | 1.74 | 0.384 | 7.59 | 0.222 | 0.662 | 0.288 | 4.34 | 0.232 | 17.22 | 21.9% |
| Niese | 0.289 | 3.52 | 0.329 | 3.35 | 0.250 | 0.717 | 0.298 | 3.82 | 0.261 | 93.50 | 16.6% |
| Kazmir | 0.290 | 3.11 | 0.278 | 3.12 | 0.273 | 0.718 | 0.277 | 3.26 | 0.227 | 93.72 | 21.8% |
| Guthrie | 0.376 | 5.88 | 0.278 | 3.00 | 0.241 | 0.733 | 0.303 | 4.44 | 0.279 | 97.84 | 13.5% |
| Pineda | 0.285 | 2.98 | 0.285 | 3.03 | 0.252 | 0.707 | 0.295 | 2.82 | 0.242 | 93.13 | 22.8% |
| Hughes | 0.293 | 3.16 | 0.333 | 4.44 | 0.258 | 0.753 | 0.312 | 3.38 | 0.272 | 94.00 | 18.9% |
| Banuelos | 0.387 | 0.00 | 0.262 | 1.26 | 0.232 | 0.664 | 0.255 | 3.90 | 0.213 | 67.75 | 18.6% |
| Cooney | 0.345 | 11.25 | 0.321 | 1.77 | 0.233 | 0.635 | 0.299 | 4.05 | 0.245 | 81.40 | 22.9% |
| Desclafani | 0.349 | 5.20 | 0.297 | 3.80 | 0.276 | 0.783 | 0.302 | 3.88 | 0.262 | 72.03 | 17.2% |
| Butler | 0.439 | 5.85 | 0.365 | 4.74 | 0.251 | 0.710 | 0.333 | 5.58 | 0.317 | 85.29 | 9.7% |
| Nelson | 0.367 | 5.18 | 0.301 | 4.04 | 0.260 | 0.721 | 0.315 | 4.01 | 0.266 | 87.30 | 19.3% |
| Corbin | 0.517 | 7.71 | 0.350 | 4.26 | 0.226 | 0.676 | 0.286 | 5.39 | 0.271 | 76.33 | 21.0% |
| Lewis | 0.353 | 4.81 | 0.334 | 5.13 | 0.251 | 0.715 | 0.319 | 4.23 | 0.282 | 96.25 | 17.5% |
| Tropeano | 0.297 | 4.58 | 0.215 | 1.80 | 0.260 | 0.748 | 0.279 | 3.01 | 0.231 | 92.80 | 15.7% |
| Haren | 0.313 | 3.73 | 0.303 | 3.87 | 0.237 | 0.664 | 0.266 | 4.17 | 0.243 | 96.53 | 18.1% |
| Cashner | 0.336 | 4.25 | 0.269 | 2.48 | 0.250 | 0.667 | 0.291 | 3.45 | 0.246 | 96.86 | 19.5% |
| Hutchison | 0.337 | 5.55 | 0.316 | 3.77 | 0.232 | 0.682 | 0.315 | 3.81 | 0.258 | 94.39 | 22.4% |
| Hernandez | 0.252 | 1.94 | 0.254 | 2.87 | 0.253 | 0.753 | 0.260 | 2.79 | 0.202 | 99.53 | 26.0% |
| Chavez | 0.311 | 3.14 | 0.286 | 3.60 | 0.273 | 0.748 | 0.300 | 3.56 | 0.248 | 78.65 | 21.6% |
| Peavy | 0.338 | 4.53 | 0.316 | 3.26 | 0.260 | 0.717 | 0.29 | 4.18 | 0.253 | 99.00 | 18.3% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Scott Kazmir HOU (at KC) – Kazmir makes his first start for his new ballclub, facing off against the contact-heavy Royals. The Astros will hope that Kazmir doesn’t repeat the second-half swoon that defined his 2014 season, when he had a 2.38 ERA before the All-Star break and a 5.42 ERA for the rest of the season; his current ERA is an eerie 2.38.
Jose Quintana CHW (at CLE) – The left-hander catches the red-hot tribe at the wrong time, and despite the Indians having a number of high-end hitters that hail from the left side of the plate – such as Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis, and Brandon Moss – the team-wide platoon split actually favors southpaws by 32 points of OPS this season. Quintana has put strikeouts back on the menu – he has 7.25 K’s per start over his last four turns after posting just 4.20 strikeouts per game in five June contests.
Andrew Cashner SD (vs. MIA) – Despite his line being washed away by rain, Cashner turned in a great performance in his last turn against the Rockies, including eight strikeouts through four innings before the game was postponed and the stats were erased from existence. It’s been a tumultuous season for Cash, filled with crooked numbers and disappointing results for a pitcher who has the stuff make big-league hitters look goofy. His stat-line has been spared by an ungodly amount of unearned runs and a rush of K’s in the first few weeks of the season, but silver lining: he hasn’t given up a homer in four starts.
Manny Banuelos ATL (at STL) – The 1.08 ERA is clearly unsustainable, particularly from a pitcher who has the peripherals to support a 3.90 FIP. After watching clobber candidate John Danks shut down the Cards a couple of days ago, I’m thinking that perhaps we should give a bit more credence to the whole “Cards don’t hit lefties” meme. Banuelos had a 2.29 ERA in the minors with even worse peripherals, so he’s used to this act.
Editor’s Note: Drew Hutchison was scratched from tonight’s start. Marco Estrada will start in his place.
Drew Hutchison TOR (at SEA) – A robust strikeout rate has triggered the hype machine for Hutchison in the recent past, but his career ERA of 4.72 over 347.3 innings tells the story of a very hittable pitcher. The ERA has been much worse than his FIP the last two seasons, which could be an indicator of easily-identifiable stuff as much as could be tied to general luck. He’s facing a Seattle club that reads like a power play but whose execution has represented an empty threat.
Phil Hughes MIN (vs. NYY) – Hughes faces his former club, and this time he doesn’t have the backing of a breakout statistical line to bring to the table against his old mates. The Yanks are chugging along with a team wOBA of .326 this season and a 747 OPS, with their 434 runs scored checking in as the second-highest total in baseball (Toronto is already over 500). This is a homer-prone pitcher going up against a powerful lineup, and Target Field is the only thing standing between Hughes and a disastrous line in tonight’s game.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (at ARI)
Jesse Chavez OAK (at SF)
Dan Haren MIA (at SD)
Jake Peavy SF (vs. OAK)
Jon Niese NYM (vs. LAD)
Ian Thomas LAD (at NYM)
Tim Cooney STL (vs. ATL)
Patrick Corbin ARI (vs. MIL)
Jeff Locke PIT (vs. WAS)
Justin Verlander DET (at BOS)
Chris Tillman BAL (at TB)
Colby Lewis TEX (at LAA)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Nick Tropeano LAA (vs. TEX)
Jeremy Guthrie KC (vs. HOU)
Eddie Butler COL (vs. CIN)
Anthony DeSclafani CIN (at COL)
Rick Porcello BOS (vs. DET)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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