Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, September 18th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-09-20 04:55:16

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Lynn	STL	CHC	359.2	2.93	3.87	1.30	60.0%	21.7%	8.5%	0.65	1.22
Haren	CHC	STL	355.2	3.95	4.07	1.18	30.0%	18.0%	4.9%	1.47	0.83
Fernandez	MIA	WAS	99.2	2.26	2.40	0.96	75.0%	33.1%	6.1%	0.45	1.36
Scherzer	WAS	MIA	418.1	3.03	2.85	1.07	60.0%	28.6%	5.3%	0.90	0.82
Porcello	BOS	TOR	348.2	4.10	3.88	1.28	55.6%	17.3%	5.1%	1.08	1.51
Stroman	TOR	BOS	135.2	3.71	3.23	1.17	66.7%	20.3%	5.4%	0.53	1.98
Cueto	KCR	DET	430.2	2.78	3.38	1.01	76.2%	23.4%	5.9%	0.88	1.24
Verlander	DET	KCR	311.2	4.22	4.16	1.30	35.0%	18.4%	6.8%	0.84	0.88
Chen	BAL	TBR	358.1	3.49	3.93	1.23	31.6%	18.3%	4.8%	1.28	1.04
Smyly	TBR	BAL	201.2	3.21	3.54	1.17	50.0%	23.1%	6.5%	1.20	0.81
Tanaka	NYY	NYM	279.1	3.09	3.00	1.02	66.7%	24.7%	4.3%	1.19	1.49
Matz	NYM	NYY	24	1.88	3.97	1.08		22.9%	9.4%	1.50	1.25
Sale	CHW	CLE	361.2	2.89	2.51	1.02	64.3%	31.6%	5.2%	0.80	1.08
Anderson	CLE	CHW	71	3.68	4.74	1.06		11.4%	5.4%	0.89	1.51
Morgan	PHI	ATL	78.1	4.60	4.96	1.26		13.9%	5.2%	1.61	0.63
Perez	ATL	PHI	99	5.36	4.99	1.59		14.1%	10.5%	1.00	1.71
Paxton	SEA	TEX	135.1	3.39	4.13	1.26	50.0%	19.0%	9.5%	0.67	1.79
Gallardo	TEX	SEA	361.2	3.43	4.18	1.33	50.0%	16.5%	7.6%	0.87	1.74
Finnegan	CIN	MIL	34	2.38	3.10	1.09		25.7%	11.0%	0.79	2.83
Davies	MIL	CIN	15	6.60	4.94	1.47		15.2%	12.1%	0.60	2.27
Doubront	OAK	HOU	137.1	5.31	4.61	1.54	20.0%	15.2%	8.4%	1.18	1.17
Fiers	HOU	OAK	233.2	3.20	3.57	1.16		25.0%	7.9%	1.04	0.85
Heaney	LAA	MIN	118.2	3.94	4.16	1.22	25.0%	17.3%	5.2%	1.06	1.02
Pelfrey	MIN	LAA	175.2	4.61	4.91	1.52		11.2%	7.9%	0.77	1.83
Kennedy	SDP	COL	352.1	3.91	3.58	1.28	47.6%	24.2%	8.0%	1.15	1.02
Bettis	COL	SDP	122.2	5.50	4.26	1.56		16.8%	8.3%	1.10	1.71
Locke	PIT	LAD	287.2	4.19	4.13	1.35	66.7%	17.0%	7.8%	0.94	1.89
Greinke	LAD	PIT	403	2.17	3.05	1.00	50.0%	24.6%	4.9%	0.69	1.56
De La Rosa	ARI	SFG	276	4.63	4.12	1.39	57.1%	18.0%	7.4%	1.40	1.47
Bumgarner	SFG	ARI	415	2.95	2.97	1.05	47.6%	26.0%	4.5%	0.82	1.22

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. ARI) – There are a bevy of intriguing options on the hill tonight, and Mad Bum is tops among them. Last year’s postseason hero is pitching like it’s October 2014 all over again, with a 1.81 ERA over his last eight starts including a 454 opponents OPS, and 73 strikeouts against six walks in 59.7 innings. The only time that he gave up more than three runs was in Colorado (where he surrendered four earnies), and he’s coming off a one-hit shutout of the Padres in his last turn, with only a Melvin Upton single standing between him and perfection. He gets a tougher opponent this time around, but even facing the top scoring offense in the National League can’t knock Bummer from his perch.

Zack Greinke LAD (vs. PIT) – Greinke continues his stinginess toward run-scoring, with seven consecutive quality starts and a 1.49 ERA over that timeframe, actually lowering his video game ERA to 1.61 on the season. He has finished the sixth inning in all 29 of his starts, has given up more than two runs just seven times, and he has avoided the free passes by not allowing more than two walks in any outing since April. The pitch-count concerns of midseason are a non-issue, even though he has thrown 93 pitches or fewer in three of his last nine starts, as Don Mattingly will keep Greinke in the game as long as he feels that the right-hander is the best option to get batters out.

Max Scherzer WAS (vs. MIA) – Scherzer has been maddeningly inconsistent over the past two months, with a 4.80 ERA over his last 10 starts, five of which featured four or more runs allowed. He is coming off a start with eight shutout frames against these Marlins, this time taking the ball at home against an offense that dearly misses the thump of Giancarlo Stanton. The big issue has been the longball, as Scherzer has served up 14 homers in his last ten games covering 60.0 frames, including five starts with multiple baseballs leaving the yard. Facing the Stanton-less Marlins should provide a boost for Scherzer in this department, as Miami has the second-fewest round-trippers in baseball (109), and that includes the 27 bombs hit by Stanton before he was disabled.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jose Fernandez MIA (at WAS) – The only thing keeping Big Fern from All-in status is the possibility that the Marlins will call it a day early on the right-hander, given their lost season and the young pitcher’s injury concerns. Seeing him pitch well is appetizing, but this start is more about getting in some work than getting the big W, and the Marlins have little reason to tempt fate. He did get through five innings of nearly pristine baseball, allowing just three baserunners and striking out seven batters in his last turn, but Fern was still pulled after 69 pitches. Expect more of the same tonight against the Nats, and his odds of nailing down the win are further depressed by his opponent on the hill: Max Scherzer.

Chris Sale CHW (at CLE) – The Condor has flown all over the place in his last few turns, as if he is tailing a drunken sailor, and for the first time all season his strikeouts have not been able to bail out fantasy line for the left-hander. He has been mashed to the tune of a 7.16 ERA over his last three starts, including 25 hits given up in 16.3 innings of work, though the 21 strikeouts against just two walks gives the impression that he is just getting hammered on balls in play. He has also given up four homers over the last two games, so the southpaw can’t blame his defense for all of his troubles. He faces a Cleveland club that is supposedly vulnerable to left-handers but has had no trouble handling them this season (.317 wOBA), and the recent struggles combined with the legit opponent will likely cause many DFS managers to fade Sale tonight, making him a very intriguing GPP play.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at NYM) – He has pitched very well this season despite a compromised UCL in his throwing arm, but what Tanaka has lacked is the dominance that personified his 2014 campaign… at least that was the case until very recently. Tanaka has owned his opponents in the last two starts, limiting the high-powered offenses of the Blue Jays and Orioles to just one run combined over 15.0 innings, with 17 strikeouts against just one walk and ten hits allowed. Whether he is stepping up his game with the AL East crown on the line, the elbow is feeling better, or he has just been lucky, the bottom line is that Tanaka is hitting his stride at just the right time.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Lynn	0.331	3.68	0.281	2.38	0.244	0.729	0.303	3.40	0.243	102.60	21.7%
Haren	0.329	4.04	0.308	3.86	0.263	0.734	0.271	4.46	0.249	94.80	18.0%
Fernandez	0.299	2.45	0.183	2.10	0.252	0.724	0.288	1.93	0.196	93.25	33.1%
Scherzer	0.300	3.40	0.259	2.58	0.250	0.667	0.297	2.85	0.225	105.63	28.6%
Porcello	0.335	3.87	0.312	4.39	0.263	0.779	0.307	4.00	0.272	95.59	17.3%
Stroman	0.284	3.47	0.283	4.00	0.265	0.737	0.302	2.99	0.247	80.00	20.3%
Cueto	0.255	2.19	0.288	3.32	0.268	0.738	0.254	3.40	0.209	104.97	23.4%
Verlander	0.291	3.23	0.350	5.59	0.271	0.745	0.301	3.73	0.258	106.35	18.4%
Chen	0.278	2.21	0.340	3.92	0.260	0.753	0.293	4.12	0.262	96.14	18.3%
Smyly	0.218	2.30	0.334	3.55	0.251	0.693	0.282	3.80	0.238	92.38	23.1%
Tanaka	0.280	3.01	0.295	3.18	0.247	0.713	0.271	3.46	0.227	98.14	24.7%
Matz	0.299	0.00	0.273	2.37	0.262	0.775	0.217	4.73	0.198	95.25	22.9%
Sale	0.230	1.55	0.277	3.17	0.262	0.723	0.304	2.56	0.217	106.67	31.6%
Anderson	0.313	4.75	0.255	2.88	0.255	0.705	0.236	4.20	0.227	83.67	11.4%
Morgan	0.258	4.50	0.357	4.62	0.235	0.648	0.273	5.10	0.265	84.00	13.9%
Perez	0.385	6.35	0.324	4.31	0.249	0.686	0.321	5.00	0.288	79.50	14.1%
Paxton	0.351	4.29	0.268	3.23	0.243	0.706	0.268	3.72	0.226	90.50	19.0%
Gallardo	0.308	3.23	0.311	3.61	0.240	0.714	0.290	4.00	0.256	99.60	16.5%
Finnegan	0.280	0.75	0.258	3.27	0.238	0.687	0.232	3.64	0.183	24.09	25.7%
Davies	0.174	0.00	0.432	14.85	0.250	0.709	0.277	4.28	0.241	83.67	15.2%
Doubront	0.356	5.30	0.355	5.31	0.245	0.741	0.316	4.67	0.285	70.58	15.2%
Fiers	0.268	2.95	0.309	3.42	0.251	0.701	0.273	3.64	0.221	91.79	25.0%
Heaney	0.262	2.60	0.335	4.50	0.262	0.730	0.289	4.11	0.257	84.27	17.3%
Pelfrey	0.347	4.64	0.341	4.58	0.248	0.705	0.319	4.53	0.294	90.50	11.2%
Kennedy	0.320	3.73	0.329	4.08	0.272	0.777	0.303	3.86	0.245	100.18	24.2%
Bettis	0.334	4.86	0.390	6.27	0.245	0.691	0.327	4.41	0.287	54.92	16.8%
Locke	0.302	4.13	0.322	4.21	0.265	0.757	0.295	4.15	0.259	92.90	17.0%
Greinke	0.261	1.91	0.257	2.38	0.261	0.723	0.273	2.83	0.217	100.84	24.6%
De La Rosa	0.392	6.08	0.296	3.25	0.269	0.742	0.305	4.62	0.273	93.54	18.0%
Bumgarner	0.248	2.30	0.285	3.11	0.265	0.741	0.294	2.89	0.23	102.18	26.0%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Drew Smyly TB (vs. BAL) – Smyly has endured a hopscotch pattern of performance, alternating clean performances and run-scoring nightmares since he returned from the disabled list. His runs counts from the last six games (going backward): zero-four-zero-four-zero-five. The good starts have been a boon to DFS managers, heavy on the strikeouts and light on baserunners, but the rough outings have had the exact opposite characteristics. If the pattern holds then he is in for a rough outing tonight against the Orioles, but a break from the trend could result in a high-scoring performance from the left-hander.

Justin Verlander DET (vs. KC) – The right-hander looked like the Verlander of old for a brief window of August, but he has fallen back into the habit of giving up runs in recent games. Over the last three starts he has surrendered 11 total runs (nine earned), which isn’t so bad on the surface until one digs a bit and sees that he has punched out just 13 hitters in 19.7 innings of work against the Indians (twice) and these Royals. KC strikes out less than any other team in the majors, so Verlander’s K count is unlikely to make a sudden comeback tonight.

Johnny Cueto KC (at DET) – If Lance Lynn has been off his game, then Cueto has been fully off his rocker. The right-hander was tearing through the best offenses in the American League a month ago, but he has been uncharacteristically hittable over his last five starts, with a shocking 9.57 ERA and eight homers allowed in 26.3 innings. Most of those games were against imposing offenses but he was also hit up by the lowly White Sox, and the homer total (including four in his last game) is indicative of a personal problem that is taking the Royals out of ballgames. He faces the Tigers for the fourth time in what will be his ninth start as a Royal, and though he shut down the Detroit bats the first two times around, that was before his implosion.

Steven Matz NYM (vs. NYY)

Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. BOS)

Andrew Heaney LAA (at MIN)

Mike Fiers HOU (vs, OAK)

James Paxton SEA (at TEX)

Yovani Gallardo TEX (vs. SEA)

Rubby de la Rosa ARI (vs. SF)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (at MIL)

Mike Pelfrey MIN (vs. LAA)

Cody Anderson CLE (vs. CHW)

Jeff Locke PIT (at LAD)

Adam Morgan PHI (at ATL)