Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, September 25th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-09-29 14:07:07

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Cole	PIT	CHC	332	3.06	3.21	1.15	28.6%	24.4%	6.1%	0.57	1.62
Lester	CHC	PIT	409.2	2.92	3.18	1.13	65.0%	24.8%	5.7%	0.70	1.37
Rodon	CHW	NYY	133.1	3.78	4.12	1.43		23.3%	11.4%	0.74	1.60
Sabathia	NYY	CHW	201.2	4.91	3.80	1.43	25.0%	20.2%	6.2%	1.61	1.40
Eickhoff	PHI	WAS	37	3.16	4.30	1.14		19.3%	7.3%	0.97	0.81
Zimmermann	WAS	PHI	390.1	3.07	3.46	1.13	52.6%	21.4%	4.1%	0.78	1.15
Odorizzi	TBR	TOR	325.1	3.76	3.75	1.21	36.8%	22.9%	7.3%	1.00	0.76
Dickey	TOR	TBR	418	3.88	4.42	1.23	47.6%	16.8%	7.7%	1.10	1.12
Pelfrey	MIN	DET	181.2	4.66	4.91	1.52		11.0%	7.6%	0.79	1.82
Boyd	DET	MIN	48.2	7.40	4.68	1.60		17.3%	7.0%	2.59	0.63
Syndergaard	NYM	CIN	135.1	3.39	3.11	1.10		26.4%	5.5%	1.13	1.37
Desclafani	CIN	NYM	206.1	4.19	4.04	1.33	20.0%	18.9%	6.6%	0.83	1.29
Weber	ATL	MIA	19.1	3.26	4.23	0.83		13.0%	7.3%	0.47	2.67
Fernandez	MIA	ATL	105.1	2.31	2.42	0.98	75.0%	33.1%	6.2%	0.51	1.38
Chen	BAL	BOS	365.1	3.45	3.90	1.22	31.6%	18.4%	4.7%	1.26	1.06
Hill	BOS	BAL	19.1	2.33	2.40	1.14		35.4%	8.5%	0.47	1.50
Gallardo	TEX	HOU	366.2	3.46	4.18	1.34	50.0%	16.5%	7.6%	0.86	1.74
Kazmir	HOU	TEX	365.1	3.15	3.81	1.16	63.2%	21.1%	7.1%	0.81	1.17
Bolsinger	LAD	COL	154.1	4.02	3.84	1.40	33.3%	20.6%	8.6%	0.82	1.88
Hale	COL	LAD	155.2	4.63	4.31	1.46	40.0%	14.3%	8.0%	1.10	1.77
Carrasco	CLE	KCR	305.2	3.15	2.72	1.04		27.7%	5.6%	0.71	1.77
Volquez	KCR	CLE	379	3.32	4.31	1.27	50.0%	17.5%	8.6%	0.74	1.46
Pena	MIL	STL	18	3.50	4.94	1.33		20.5%	14.1%	0.50	0.90
Martinez	STL	MIL	268.2	3.35	3.44	1.33		23.5%	8.7%	0.57	2.07
Leake	SFG	OAK	391.1	3.75	3.76	1.22	45.0%	17.2%	5.8%	0.99	2.01
Gray	OAK	SFG	421	2.91	3.69	1.14	60.0%	20.2%	7.7%	0.66	1.93
Nuno	SEA	LAA	235.1	4.17	3.88	1.25	18.8%	19.9%	6.8%	1.42	0.93
Richards	LAA	SEA	357	3.20	3.61	1.15	65.0%	21.8%	8.0%	0.58	1.88
De La Rosa	ARI	SDP	281.2	4.54	4.14	1.38	57.1%	18.1%	7.6%	1.37	1.47
Kelly	SDP	ARI

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jose Fernandez MIA (vs. ATL) – Injury frustrations aside, what Fern can do on the mound is absolutely electric, and the Defector is on the short list for best pitches in the game. Looking at his numbers on a rate basis, he’s one small step away from Kershaw. Fernandez has only pitched 53.7 innings this season, but in those frames he has posted a 2.18 ERA and a ridiculous 32.9-percent strikeout rate, which would rank just behind Kershaw for the highest in baseball (among starters) if the right-hander had the innings to qualify. He’s allowed as many walks (13) as he has earned runs, giving him a K-to-walk ratio of 5.2-to-one, and Fern has only surrendered two homers this season. The last time around I cautioned that his pitch count would likely be low and to value him accordingly, but then he went out and threw 95 pitches, so now it’s on. Fern can dominate any opponent, so facing a weak-hitting Atlanta club will likely send his DFS ownership percentage through the roof.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Carlos Carrasco CLE (at KC) – In his last start against KC, Carrasco accomplished what was once deemed impossible, striking out nine Royals over six frames of one-run baseball against the most contact-heavy ballclub in the majors. The season has been erratic for Carrasco but he has recently found his groove, with seven or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight turns, a stretch that includes a 2.19 ERA and 63 strikeouts against 13 walks in 53.1 innings. He’s been punching out Royals all season, in fact, with 23 whiffs in 20.3 innings pitched, including a 2.25 ERA in three starts against KC this season.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (at CIN) – The Mets are facing unprecedented workloads for many of the pitchers in their star-studded rotation, and Syndergaard has grabbed a big portion of the spotlight considering his youth, his upside, and his potential impact on the 2015 playoffs. He only threw 88 pitches in his last turn but that had more to do with the scoreboard, as Synder had allowed five earned runs through six innings when he was pulled. He has given up more than his fair share of homers this season and the gopher problem has gotten worse over the past two months, as he has coughed up 11 longballs over his last eight starts, and over his last seven turns Syndergaard has posted a 5.07 ERA. He could be tiring or perhaps it’s just a blip on the radar, but expect the Mets to have a quick hook tonight if Thor falters.

Carlos Martinez STL (vs. MIL) – The road to stardom got a bit rocky for Martinez during the dog days, and from early August to early September he had a run of six straight starts with three or four earned runs allowed, pitching between 5.0 and 6.3 innings in the last five of those turns. He has turned things around in his last two starts, striking out 15 batters against five walks in 14.3 innings pitched, with a total of five runs allowed on eight hits. The first of those starts was against the Brewers and featured nine K’s while allowing just six baserunners over 8.0 frames, with the lone run scoring on a deep fly – the first homer that he had given up since August 11th.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Cole	0.291	2.47	0.289	3.62	0.246	0.731	0.310	2.89	0.239	100.50	24.4%
Lester	0.303	2.77	0.285	2.97	0.258	0.706	0.304	2.92	0.237	104.44	24.8%
Rodon	0.227	3.03	0.354	4.09	0.258	0.758	0.316	3.81	0.247	94.00	23.3%
Sabathia	0.243	4.91	0.376	4.91	0.243	0.646	0.327	4.64	0.285	94.46	20.2%
Eickhoff	0.382	5.74	0.199	1.27	0.251	0.725	0.255	3.87	0.223	88.33	19.3%
Zimmermann	0.317	3.52	0.263	2.63	0.245	0.675	0.303	3.14	0.251	93.11	21.4%
Odorizzi	0.283	3.59	0.322	3.98	0.263	0.778	0.284	3.65	0.234	97.77	22.9%
Dickey	0.302	3.39	0.325	4.31	0.248	0.703	0.263	4.46	0.238	102.02	16.8%
Pelfrey	0.349	4.60	0.344	4.71	0.267	0.732	0.320	4.56	0.297	90.58	11.0%
Boyd	0.482	11.08	0.383	6.06	0.260	0.730	0.333	6.35	0.318	77.55	17.3%
Syndergaard	0.297	3.66	0.275	3.13	0.251	0.715	0.287	3.34	0.23	98.86	26.4%
Desclafani	0.340	4.86	0.297	3.45	0.246	0.711	0.315	3.66	0.267	77.93	18.9%
Weber	0.262	4.15	0.223	1.42	0.253	0.674	0.192	3.97	0.177	87.33	13.0%
Fernandez	0.318	2.60	0.174	2.09	0.255	0.678	0.290	2.06	0.198	93.35	33.1%
Chen	0.276	2.17	0.339	3.88	0.272	0.756	0.294	4.07	0.262	96.22	18.4%
Hill	0.294	1.35	0.234	2.84	0.246	0.681	0.333	2.36	0.208	18.56	35.4%
Gallardo	0.311	3.33	0.311	3.58	0.246	0.735	0.293	3.99	0.258	99.44	16.5%
Kazmir	0.304	3.26	0.281	3.12	0.250	0.722	0.274	3.55	0.229	94.62	21.1%
Bolsinger	0.342	3.69	0.306	4.25	0.271	0.774	0.319	3.67	0.262	85.31	20.6%
Hale	0.352	4.19	0.328	4.97	0.247	0.740	0.303	4.62	0.276	42.30	14.3%
Carrasco	0.258	3.09	0.275	3.21	0.271	0.747	0.292	2.71	0.221	67.01	27.7%
Volquez	0.311	3.23	0.297	3.40	0.252	0.719	0.277	3.99	0.238	95.56	17.5%
Pena	0.414	3.00	0.213	3.75	0.262	0.734	0.245	4.09	0.197	82.00	20.5%
Martinez	0.339	4.06	0.275	2.76	0.259	0.715	0.323	3.21	0.25	48.46	23.5%
Leake	0.338	4.12	0.287	3.42	0.252	0.707	0.285	3.98	0.253	94.69	17.2%
Gray	0.276	2.43	0.270	3.44	0.266	0.739	0.266	3.45	0.222	99.79	20.2%
Nuno	0.266	2.54	0.342	4.73	0.232	0.660	0.279	4.50	0.248	60.03	19.9%
Richards	0.260	3.11	0.284	3.31	0.242	0.721	0.271	3.27	0.219	101.11	21.8%
De La Rosa	0.389	5.96	0.293	3.18	0.245	0.694	0.302	4.61	0.27	93.76	18.1%
Kelly	0.352	0.00	0.503	9.00	0.266	0.736

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Sonny Gray OAK (vs. SF) – Gray was the toast of the town in the first half of the season, playing the role of the AL’s version of Zack Greinke with an ERA of 2.04 heading into the All-Star Break. Then the wheels came flying off. He allowed five earnies in his first start after the break and has compiled a 3.79 mark overall in the second half, with just 54 strikeouts in 78.3 innings pitched. He did just fine through August, but Gray has been a different beast since the calendar flipped to September, having given up five or more runs in three of his four starts this month, getting shelled by the likes of the White Sox, Angels, and Astros (11 days after shutting Houston down). The Battle of the Bay is happening late this season but it might be the only thing that the A’s or Giants have to play for at this point, while A’s fans have to wonder if Gray will be donning a different uniform next year.

Jordan Zimmermann WAS (vs. PHI) – Zimmermann might bring a boring stat-line to the table, given his relatively pedestrian K rate of 20.1 percent, his ability to limit the walks (at 4.6 percent it’s his third straight season under 5.0, and his vulnerability to balls in play, as a league-average BAbip has led to a hit allowed per inning. He has a history of limiting the homers but that is one attribute that has deserted him this season, giving up the highest rate of homers in any full season of his career at 1.0 homers per nine innings. What he does well is keep runs off the scoreboard and keeping the Nats in the game, with his 21 quality starts this season marking the fourth consecutive year with that many QS, and his run-prevention skill will be augmented by the weak lineup of the Phillies.

Carlos Rodon CHW (at NYY) – For much of the season, I have championed Rodon as the ultimate GPP pitcher, given the extreme highs and lows that come attached to his game log. Somewhere along the line he stopped the zig-zag performance pattern and just kept rolling, and over his last seven starts Rodon has posted a 1.66 ERA without giving up more than two earned runs in any ballgame. Such a run merits Raise consideration, especially considering his K-per-inning track record, but he just misses this week due to the strength of his pinstriped opponent.

Scott Kazmir HOU (vs. TEX) – Kazmir is trudging his way through the final month of the season. He has a 4.71 ERA with just 14 K’s in 21.0 innings over his last four starts, having given up 24 hits and eight walks in the process. He hasn’t struck out more than five batters in a ballgame since August and is coming off of an ugly start against his former team, as the A’s knocked him out of the game in the fourth inning on the heels of five hits (two of which were homers) and three walks – it took Kaz 84 pitches just to get the 11 outs. The Texas offense has been hitting on all cylinders lately, so Kazmir could be in for another short outing.

Garrett Richards LAA (vs. SEA) – Richards has been unpredictable from start to start this season, and one need look no further than his first two start of September to find evidence – he struck out just one Ranger over 6.0 innings on September 4th, then turned around and fanned 11 Dodgers over 7.7 innings in his next start. He followed that up with a four-run effort against these Mariners in which he split the difference on the strikeout scale, punching out six batters in five innings. There’s no telling which version will show up today, but fingers crossed that he uncorks a wild one in his attempt to lead the majors in wild pitches two seasons in a row.

Rich Hill BOS (vs. BAL) – Hill’s comeback has been extraordinary. He had left the real-time consciousness of most fantasy managers when he showed up on September 13, but his presence was immediately acknowledged after he struck out 10 Rays, and his presence was announced with authority when he followed it up by whiffing 10 Blue Jays seven days later. The fastball is sitting in the low 90’s, the curveball is leaving batters with confused looks, and for one bright moment the 34-year old can rekindle the fond memories of his youth. He faces a tough matchup with the Orioles today, but I expect that he will be heavily owned given his exceedingly low price tag on DraftKings (just $4300), and lots of gamers will be pairing him with Fernandez and then going big on their lineups.

Edinson Volquez KC (vs. CLE)

Yovani Gallardo TEX (at HOU)

Mike Leake SF (at OAK)

CC Sabathia NYY (vs. CHW)

Jake Odorizzi TB (at TOR)

Kevin Gausman BAL (at BOS)

R.A. Dickey TOR (vs. TB)

Rubby de la Rosa ARI (at SD)

Vidal Nuno NYY (at LAA)

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at WAS)

Anthony DeSclafani CIN (vs. NYM)

Casey Kelly SD (vs. ARI)