Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, July 18th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-19 02:35:06

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Gausman	BAL	NYY	194.0	4.13	3.75	1.25	37.5%	21.90%	5.8%	1.44	1.20
Nova	NYY	BAL	168.2	5.07	4.31	1.39	25.0%	16.00%	6.8%	1.39	1.76
Fernandez	MIA	PHI	165.0	2.78	2.66	1.08	75.0%	34.10%	6.8%	0.60	1.29
Nola	PHI	MIA	173.2	4.20	3.39	1.24	0.0%	23.70%	5.7%	1.09	1.86
Nolasco	MIN	DET	134.0	5.71	4.12	1.47	16.7%	19.50%	5.6%	1.14	1.15
Boyd	DET	MIN	86.2	7.17	4.83	1.55	0.0%	16.80%	8.1%	2.28	0.73
Wisler	ATL	CIN	204.2	4.44	4.84	1.35	0.0%	16.10%	7.7%	1.28	0.83
Finnegan	CIN	ATL	144.1	4.18	4.84	1.33	0.0%	18.60%	11.4%	1.37	1.28
Matz	NYM	CHC	117.2	3.06	3.53	1.23	0.0%	23.10%	5.7%	0.92	1.69
Lester	CHC	NYM	311.1	2.89	3.29	1.07	65.0%	25.00%	5.7%	0.78	1.58
Kluber	CLE	KCR	332.2	3.49	3.12	1.03	57.1%	26.90%	5.1%	0.81	1.30
Volquez	KCR	CLE	299.2	3.96	4.41	1.35	50.0%	18.00%	8.5%	0.78	1.51
Friedrich	SDP	STL	108.1	4.65	4.55	1.63	0.0%	17.70%	10.5%	0.83	1.52
Leake	STL	SDP	290.0	3.85	4.19	1.18	45.0%	15.30%	5.6%	1.12	1.90
Smyly	TBR	COL	163.0	4.42	3.42	1.22	50.0%	27.20%	6.5%	1.66	0.74
Anderson	COL	TBR	23.2	2.66	2.98	1.31	0.0%	24.00%	5.0%	0.38	3.42
Fiers	HOU	OAK	270.0	3.83	4.06	1.28	0.0%	21.00%	7.3%	1.23	1.05
Graveman	OAK	HOU	195.2	4.37	4.51	1.47	0.0%	15.40%	7.6%	1.24	1.77
Griffin	TEX	LAA	43.0	2.93	4.24	1.09	0.0%	24.30%	9.8%	0.84	0.74
Tropeano	LAA	TEX	93.0	3.48	4.24	1.46	0.0%	22.70%	9.4%	0.97	0.82
Sale	CWS	SEA	328.2	3.23	2.86	1.05	64.3%	29.60%	5.0%	1.01	1.16
LeBlanc	SEA	CWS	12.0	1.50	4.24	0.67	0.0%	18.60%	4.7%	0.75	1.00

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jose Fernandez MIA (at PHI) – Leave it to Fern to follow-up a dominant 13-K start versus the Cubs with a nightmare nine-run outing against the Braves, who pulled off exactly that sequence in two of his three final starts prior to the All-Star break. The key to Fern’s value is strikeouts; he has 154 Ks this season, good enough for third in baseball, while his 12.9 K/9 is the best rate in the major leagues among starters, with a clear 1.3 K/9 advantage over runner-up Max Scherzer. Fern has struck out eight or more batters in 12 of his 17 starts and cracked double-digit Ks a half-dozen times this season. He has a weird habit of getting knocked around every once in awhile – four or more runs allowed in four of his starts – but Fernandez is otherwise unstoppable, allowing one or zero runs in 11 of his games started. He has the upside, he has the floor … he has the throne as King Fern until further notice (or until Kershaw returns from the DL).

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Chris Sale CHW (at SEA) – Sale finished the first half with his worst start of the year so far, giving up eight runs and ten hits over 5.0 innings to the Atlanta Braves… it’s interesting that the Braves have by far the lowest OPS (.649) and fewest runs-per-game (3.43) in all of baseball, yet that weak offense has found a way to deliver a pounding to some of the best pitchers in baseball, such as Fernandez and Sale. It’s the second rough outing in a row for Sale, who gave up five runs (four earned) against the Astros in the start prior. The Condor has been tortured by home runs lately, including three allowed in the game against the Braves, and over his last nine starts Sale has been knocked for a 5.56 ERA including 65 hits and 12 home runs allowed in 56.2 innings of work. That’s a lot of hard-hit baseballs.

Corey Kluber CLE (at KC) – Like Sale, Kluber has had a tendency towards single-game implosions, though Kluber has been able to spread out the pain with one or two bad games per month rather than go haywire for a stretch of starts. He may have gotten his July yips out of the way early, as he gave up five runs over 3.1 frames to the Blue Jays in his first start of the month. Kluber’s strikeouts have been steady all season at a K-per-inning, as even on a per-game basis he stays within a very narrow range. Kluber has struck out between anywhere from six to nine batters in 14 of his 18 starts this season and 10 of his last 11; he’s only broken double digits one time this season (10 Ks exactly). Kluber has done a good job of keeping the ball in the yard, with only three homers allowed across his last seven starts, and facing the light-power Royals will likely bode well for his overall home run rate.

Jon Lester CHC (vs. NYM) – What happened? Lester was breezing through the first three months of the season, posting quality starts in 14 of his first 16 turns and giving up more than three runs in just a single start. The July hit, and suddenly Lester found himself on the losing end of a bludgeoning by the Mets, coughing up eight runs and getting run off the mound in the second inning; the next start saw five earned runs, four hits (including two home runs) and three walks in just 3.0 innings pitched. The two-game total was 13 runs over 4.1 innings (27.00 ERA) with five home runs allowed, and just like that Lester added nearly two full runs to his ERA on the campaign, which now stands at 3.01. It was the Mets who delivered the eight-run beating, so Lester better have figured out what went wrong if he wants to avoid a repeat performance.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Gausman	0.277	2.97	0.360	5.29	0.248	0.730	0.295	4.18	0.255	0.01	21.9%
Nova	0.375	5.38	0.320	4.82	0.262	0.775	0.298	4.84	0.273	0.00	16.0%
Fernandez	0.325	3.50	0.203	2.19	0.244	0.684	0.326	2.20	0.218	0.01	34.1%
Nola	0.327	4.54	0.287	3.95	0.262	0.701	0.312	3.56	0.254	0.01	23.7%
Nolasco	0.331	4.55	0.365	6.75	0.270	0.746	0.350	3.89	0.298	0.00	19.5%
Boyd	0.431	9.90	0.375	6.35	0.255	0.732	0.308	6.07	0.295	0.00	16.8%
Wisler	0.375	5.31	0.278	3.64	0.245	0.702	0.283	4.72	0.259	0.00	16.1%
Finnegan	0.331	3.31	0.316	4.46	0.234	0.634	0.248	5.11	0.226	0.01	18.6%
Matz	0.308	1.95	0.290	3.40	0.247	0.736	0.314	3.35	0.255	0.01	23.1%
Lester	0.268	2.78	0.281	2.93	0.241	0.713	0.286	3.06	0.226	0.01	25.0%
Kluber	0.304	3.95	0.239	3.05	0.269	0.732	0.285	2.91	0.221	0.01	26.9%
Volquez	0.298	3.43	0.319	4.51	0.254	0.737	0.296	3.92	0.253	0.00	18.0%
Friedrich	0.293	3.61	0.362	5.32	0.233	0.677	0.333	4.19	0.282	0.00	17.7%
Leake	0.318	4.27	0.281	3.40	0.239	0.679	0.267	4.26	0.247	0.00	15.3%
Smyly	0.279	4.11	0.330	4.50	0.256	0.710	0.299	4.14	0.245	0.01	27.2%
Anderson			0.306	2.55	0.267	0.782	0.357	2.32	0.274	0.06	24.0%
Fiers	0.296	3.47	0.337	4.15	0.250	0.701	0.292	4.20	0.250	0.00	21.0%
Graveman	0.346	3.67	0.342	5.07	0.251	0.753	0.312	4.74	0.283	0.00	15.4%
Griffin	0.281	3.13	0.251	2.70	0.256	0.720	0.236	3.61	0.192	0.03	24.3%
Tropeano	0.331	2.42	0.334	4.63	0.258	0.739	0.333	3.83	0.268	0.01	22.7%
Sale	0.274	3.19	0.277	3.24	0.260	0.736	0.298	2.99	0.225	0.01	29.6%
LeBlanc					0.247	0.676	0.156	3.41	0.146	0.09	18.6%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Kevin Gausman BAL (at NYY) – Gausman was having a decent season if you looked past the run prevention, and the thought was that he could be a valuable fantasy commodity once he had cleared the schedule of AL East boomsticks. It didn’t work out that way. Gaus has surrendered 16 hits (including three homers) in his last two starts and 11.0 innings pitched (versus the Dodgers and Mariners), though his 13:1 K:BB ratio over that stretch grabs the attention. He last faced the Yankees on June 5, a quality start with 6.0 innings pitched, one run allowed and a 5:2 K:BB ratio.

Steven Matz NYM (at CHC) – Matz will require surgery after the season to remove bone chips from his throwing elbow, but for DFS gamers the question is how the issue will impact him while pitching through the problem this season. The results have been mixed, as Matz went from being on a shutdown run to a pitcher who is suddenly susceptible to crooked numbers. For example, he gave up just four total home runs through his first 11 ballgames, but Matz has coughed up six gopherballs over his last five starts and 29.2 innings, a stretch that has seen him post a 4.85 ERA and pedestrian 24:10 K:BB ratio.

Aaron Nola PHI (vs. MIA) – In the span of five starts, Nola added more than two full runs to his ERA, skyrocketing from a 2.65 mark after the game on June 5 to its present 4.69 score. He was gone by the fourth inning in each of his next four starts, games that involved four or more runs crossing the plate, and he followed it all up with a relatively-long outing just before the break: 5.0 innings and five runs allowed. All told, Nola’s last month involved a 13.50 ERA with a ridiculous 38 hits over 18.0 innings – the ERA would have been even worse if not for the fact that eight of the 38 runs scored against Nola during this stretch were unearned. His season-long control of the strike zone is certainly enticing, but I would want to see that he’s dealing before re-inserting him into the lineup.

Mike Leake STL (vs. SD) – Leake has been stingy with walks his entire career, walking less than 2.5 batters per nine in every season since he was a 22-year old rookie. This has kept his WHIP down in the 1.15-1.20 range over the past few years, but this season Leake is taking it to a new level with a career-low rate of 1.4 BB/9, though his rate of baserunners is virtually the same given the frequency with which he gives up hits. Leake is coming off his best start of the season, striking out 10 Brewers through seven innings with only one hit given up, but the successful outing merely shines a light on what Leake didn;t do in the other starts. It was the only game this season in which he struck out more than six batters.

Nick Tropeano LAA (vs. TEX) – Tropeano has dealt with control that comes and goes this season, having walked four or more batters in three different starts this season yet posting just two free passes total over his 11.0 innings. The K-per-inning pace is encouraging but Tropeano still carries considerable downside risk, with a high rate of homers (1.5 HR/9) to go along with the high walk rate to fail to support his low 3.18 ERA. He might have been fortunate so far that the events occurred in the order that they have, lest his ERA be two runs higher than it is, and today he faces a formidable Rangers offense to further compound the risk factor.

A.J. Griffin TEX (at LAA)

Wade LeBlanc SEA (vs. CHW)

Edinson Volquez KC (vs. CLE)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (vs. ATL)

Kendall Graveman OAK (vs. HOU)

Mike Fiers HOU (at OAK)

Matt Wisler ATL (at CIN)

Ivan Nova NYY (vs. BAL)

Ricky Nolasco MIN (at DET)