Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, September 19th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-20 03:16:26

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Rodon	CWS	KCR	281.1	3.77	4.09	1.42	0.0%	22.70%	9.4%	0.96	1.37
Ventura	KCR	CWS	326.0	4.17	4.23	1.34	44.4%	19.70%	9.0%	0.97	1.77
Porcello	BOS	BAL	365.2	4.01	3.78	1.18	55.6%	20.50%	4.4%	1.11	1.30
Bundy	BAL	BOS	94.1	3.82	4.11	1.37	0.0%	22.70%	8.6%	1.43	0.83
Blair	ATL	NYM	54.2	8.23	5.82	1.77	0.0%	12.40%	11.2%	1.81	1.08
Syndergaard	NYM	ATL	317.0	2.84	2.98	1.09	0.0%	28.30%	5.5%	0.82	1.60
Cole	WAS	MIA	33.0	4.91	3.81	1.18	0.0%	24.30%	5.7%	1.91	0.54
Chen	MIA	WAS	301.1	3.94	4.07	1.25	31.6%	19.20%	5.1%	1.43	1.02
Adleman	CIN	CHC	46.1	3.88	5.09	1.32	0.0%	15.40%	7.7%	1.94	0.81
Hammel	CHC	CIN	322.1	3.63	3.87	1.18	47.4%	22.40%	6.7%	1.23	1.09
Chacin	LAA	TEX	146.2	5.22	4.47	1.50	18.2%	18.40%	9.2%	0.98	1.64
Perez	TEX	LAA	260.2	4.28	4.83	1.42	37.5%	12.90%	8.6%	0.66	2.18
Martinez	STL	COL	351.0	3.03	3.75	1.25	0.0%	22.50%	8.6%	0.64	2.18
Anderson	COL	STL	101.0	3.65	3.77	1.26	0.0%	21.80%	6.2%	0.98	1.84
Peacock	HOU	OAK	15.2	4.02	4.80	1.28	28.6%	17.90%	9.0%	1.15	0.61
Cotton	OAK	HOU
Shipley	ARI	SDP	51.0	5.12	5.47	1.49	0.0%	12.80%	9.6%	1.76	1.22
Richard	SDP	ARI	87.2	3.29	3.60	1.44	0.0%	14.30%	6.8%	0.51	3.98
Bumgarner	SFG	LAD	418.0	2.78	3.17	1.02	47.6%	27.50%	5.3%	0.95	1.06
Kershaw	LAD	SFG	356.2	2.04	2.25	0.84	66.7%	33.50%	3.8%	0.56	1.75
Estrada	TOR	SEA	332.2	3.38	4.51	1.09	27.8%	20.00%	8.1%	1.22	0.66
Walker	SEA	TOR	278.1	4.59	3.89	1.22	0.0%	21.20%	5.6%	1.58	1.01

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (vs. ATL) – From a pure fantasy standpoint, Thor is coming off his best game in months, tossing seven innings of one-run ball at Washington, with 10 strikeouts against one walk and only four hits allowed. It was his first double-digit strikeout performance since mid-June, but the strong outing continued a string of starts that has helped to reinforce his lofty stature for the first half of the season. In his last six turns, Syndergaard is 4-1 with a 1.36 ERA and 42:12 K:BB in 39.2 innings of play, and he hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in any of the six starts. Stolen bases are always an issue when Thor pitches, as he has given up a league-lapping total of 46 steals this season, though he and his battery-mates have begun catching some of the basepath predators, including all three of the attempted swipes from two games ago. The Braves have had a more robust offense in the second half than their season-long offensive woes might indicate, and in the last seven days that are raking at a clip of a .364 wOBA and .857 OPS, so Thor’s status as the top arm on a slate that features some of the best pitchers in the game is not simply an indictment of his opponent, but rather a nod to his own skill-set.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Madison Bumgarner SF (at LAD) – Bummer has been a mainstay at the All-In level all season long, but he gets bumped from the top spot on today’s slate due to the greatness of Thor as well as his own lack of recent dominance. Bumgarner has a 5.30 ERA over his last six starts, and though no single game was particularly damaging, he has given up multiple runs in every turn, including three games out of the last six that featured four or more runs allowed. Even during this rough patch, Bum has carried an excellent K:BB of 42:9 over 35.2 innings, but the 38 hits allowed – including five homers – have come back to haunt his run prevention. He faces off with his old nemesis today, as the duels of Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner have become a recurring attraction in the NL West and could offer a playoff preview if both teams can clear the bar into the postseason.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. SF) – The Dodgers have been very careful with Kershaw’s workload as he comes back from the back ailment that sidelined him for half the season, limiting Kershaw to just 64 pitches in his last start and 66 pitches in the prior turn. It was a bit surprising that the Dodgers chose not to extend Kershaw a bit in his last outing, as one would expect a gradual increase to his workload until he was back to full capacity, and the fact that he had breezed through five innings of one-hit baseball made the choice to remove Kershaw all the more curious, adding to a week of head-scratching pitcher removals on the part of Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. Kershaw’s value takes a ding due to the expectation of another truncated workload – else he would hold the top spot – even though he can put up a strong fantasy score even with a firm cap to his pitch-count. His pricing on DraftKings ($12500) hardly reflects the likelihood of a shorter outing, so as has been the case in his last two overpriced outings, once again it will be tough for Kershaw to turn a profit.

Rick Porcello BOS (at BAL) – The 20-game winner twirled a gem against the Orioles in his last start, with just one run allowed on four hits and no walks in eight innings. He struck out six batters in the game and the only blemish was a Mark Trumbo home run, but Kevin Gausman matched him frame-for-frame and Porcello ended up taking just his fourth loss of the season. He has a chance for redemption tonight in Baltimore but he’ll have to shake off the nightmares from his first visit to Camden Yards this season, in which he gave up three homers and five total runs over six innings back on June 2nd. At that time he was going through a rough stretch, but right now Porcello is on fire, throwing 7.0 or more innings in each of his last 10 starts while allowing three or fewer runs in each, combining for a 2.38 ERA with 59 strikeouts and just five walks in his last 75.2 innings pitched.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Rodon	0.252	2.67	0.345	4.14	0.272	0.737	0.323	3.92	0.260	96.84	22.7%
Ventura	0.321	5.02	0.305	3.35	0.253	0.707	0.293	4.14	0.248	94.75	19.7%
Porcello	0.307	3.78	0.310	4.29	0.261	0.776	0.300	3.77	0.257	100.60	20.5%
Bundy	0.319	3.88	0.341	3.57	0.275	0.779	0.306	4.53	0.258	50.45	22.7%
Blair	0.438	6.59	0.357	9.88	0.242	0.712	0.315	6.45	0.304	0.00	12.4%
Syndergaard	0.296	3.24	0.260	2.46	0.256	0.699	0.306	2.76	0.231	0.01	28.3%
Cole	0.348	5.32	0.279	3.77	0.261	0.702	0.270	4.75	0.238	0.00	24.3%
Chen	0.271	2.73	0.345	4.28	0.262	0.770	0.294	4.31	0.263	94.40	19.2%
Adleman	0.382	5.40	0.342	2.73	0.247	0.738	0.265	5.88	0.261	83.44	15.4%
Hammel	0.324	3.42	0.296	3.85	0.252	0.716	0.276	4.01	0.235	88.34	22.4%
Chacin	0.362	6.11	0.308	4.38	0.260	0.750	0.320	4.25	0.273	0.00	18.4%
Perez	0.248	2.30	0.337	4.81	0.246	0.700	0.297	4.15	0.268	92.34	12.9%
Martinez	0.327	3.69	0.257	2.38	0.272	0.787	0.299	3.43	0.238	0.00	22.5%
Anderson	0.260	1.48	0.327	4.34	0.239	0.700	0.313	3.59	0.259	93.94	21.8%
Peacock	0.369	4.35			0.249	0.703	0.261	4.61	0.233	37.00	17.9%
Cotton					0.249	0.745
Shipley	0.356	4.94	0.395	5.40	0.237	0.682	0.281	5.83	0.278	0.00	12.8%
Richard	0.276	2.18	0.338	4.07	0.270	0.786	0.322	3.62	0.282	24.55	14.3%
Bumgarner	0.247	2.85	0.273	2.76	0.240	0.694	0.276	3.04	0.216	0.00	27.5%
Kershaw	0.211	1.89	0.228	2.09	0.264	0.720	0.276	1.90	0.192	0.01	33.5%
Estrada	0.273	3.02	0.292	3.81	0.252	0.742	0.227	4.35	0.205	90.63	20.0%
Walker	0.306	4.23	0.334	4.92	0.257	0.776	0.282	4.53	0.250	90.52	21.2%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. TOR) – It’s rare for a pitcher to intentionally alter his mechanics this late in the season, but Walker made some adjustments to his lower half by raising his leg lift and then straightening out his stride, resulting in a deeper release point that was more consistently aligned with his targets. The results were immediate, as he tossed a shutout against the Angels, with 11 strikeouts against the team that doesn’t strike out. The fact that there was a mechanical adjustment behind his successful outing is encouraging that he can carry some of his success over to tonight’s start, but mechanical changes can also lead to inconsistency while the pitcher hones his new delivery, adding to the volatility in Walker’s expected statline.

A.J. Cole WAS (at MIA) – Cole’s last start was his first without giving up a home run, but the Mets knocked nine hits to score three runs over five innings of work for the righty, marking the first time that he had given up more than five hits in a contest after five big-league starts this season. He went seven innings in his first game of 2016, but Cole hasn’t thrown more than six frames since and has only completed the sixth inning one time in his past four starts. He faces a Marlins club that recently reinserted Giancarlo Stanton into the starting lineup, at least on occasion, but the big slugger has yet to show that he can still hit with the same authority, and the Marlins’ offense is far less imposing as a result.

Marco Estrada TOR (at SEA) – Estrada has traveled a rocky road recently, with a 7.53 ERA over his last six starts, only one of which involved fewer than four runs allowed, and that was a game in Baltimore that most gamers were sure to fade. Prior to the All-Star break, Estrada cruised on the strength of an absurdly-low .193 BABiP, but his .217 BABiP in 2015 made the performance to seem a bit more sustainable; in 10 starts since the break, Estrada has regressed to a .319 BABiP, and his ERA has suffered the consequences.

Jason Hammel CHC (vs. CIN) – Hammel has been through hell and back, giving up 10 runs in a start in Colorado last month, then made a return trip to hell when he coughed up nine runs (eight earned) and 13 hits to the Brewers two starts ago. It was actually the third time this season that Hammel had given up nine or more runs in a game. His follow-up was shaky, giving up four runs thanks to two homers over 5.2 innings against the Cardinals, but he saved his fantasy statline with nine strikeouts in that one. Rostering Hammel is gambling with the devil that he won’t reclaim the right-hander’s soul for another start.

Carlos Martinez STL (at COL) – Martinez is coming off a so-so start against the Cubs, punching out nine hitters over 6.0 innings but also giving up four runs thanks to a pair of homers, and that came on the heels of an oddball game in which he struck out just one batter over seven innings against Milwaukee – a team that he had struck out 32 times over 19.0 innings the other three times that he faced them. The strikeout count is generally low and the ERA is likely to inflate now that he travels to Coors Field for the first time this season, a ballpark that likely strips him of all utility for cash games but leaves him open for a dice-roll play in large tournaments.

Jharel Cotton OAK (vs. HOU)

Dylan Bundy BAL (vs. BOS)

Braden Shipley ARI (at SD)

Wei-Yin Chen MIA (vs. WAS)

Clayton Richard SD (vs. ARI)

Brad Peacock HOU (at OAK)

Martin Perez TEX (vs. LAA)